156 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, February 24, 2023”

  1. https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=248172

    If you are an investor I would read this article very closely.

    Although USA centric, value for international readers as well.

    “The cash furnace firms are still running cash furnaces; they have to, since that’s all they got. But the monetary games that allowed this to be done and show “decent operating results” are over — and there’s no reason to believe they will come back.

    Ever.”

    1) Positive real interest rates are required for a stable economy over the long term and to halt inflation

    2) In all sectors of the economy ( like Twitter and the USA Federal Government and shale? ) companies have built strategies that assume interest rates always go down. They need to roll over (roll over RISK) their debt to lower interest rates to continue to operate the same.

    3) without halting inflation ( which requires interest rates that are higher than inflation ) there will be a breakdown of civil society.

    4) Interestingly Karl notes that if the law were enforced Tesla would not exist. They are using child labor to mine cobalt.

    1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcJ8me22NVs

      Are you allowed to TWEET from prison Mr. Musk?

      Why not splurge 44 billion helping these people out?
      (not much ROI and Status in that … huh)

      Is being able to TWEET more important than children?

      Will Twitter go bankrupt or Musk end up in prison first?

      Child/slave labor in the Congo.

      TWEET tweetin me arse off at peakoilbarrel.com

    2. Child mined cobalt is ESG now.

      Musk is tweeting more pro-Putin talking points today, as usual; and Jordan B Peterson is outraged about public warning signs to prevent injuries, it’s woke tyranny. Holy fuck there’s some stupid fuckers buying that guys books lol.

      This isn’t what they were talking about in the Parisian Salons; all very embarrassing.

      1. “Musk is tweeting more pro-Putin talking points today”

        Great way to attract advertising revenue!!

        TWEET

    3. >companies have built strategies that assume interest rates always go down.

      Nobody actually assume interest rates will always go down, since they would approach negative infinity.

      There are several reasons why interest rates will stay low in coming decades. The biggest is continuing globalization, with millions of new low wage workers entering global labor markets every year. Others include technical innovation and efficiency improvements. Central banks around the world will keep interest rates low to avoid deflation for some time to come.

      1. Actions speak louder than words!

        Borrowing money, not paying it back and rolling over to lower interest rates (rollover risk) suggests the opposite.

        Do you think the average accountant is really this dumb?

        “There are several reasons why interest rates will stay low in coming decades”

        You don’t understand inflation.

        We are in a rock and hard place. No win situation.

        If interest rates are low in the coming decades it will because we have crashed big time.

        you do realise the OBVIOUS don’t you….the interest rate is supposed to be higher than inflation.

        I learned that in Finance 101. Otherwise everyone who is lending is LOSING MONEY.

  2. Yacht runs aground, leaks fuel over Hawaii marine sanctuary

    https://www.sfgate.com/hawaii/article/hawaii-private-yacht-runs-aground-leaks-17804153.php?IPID=SFGate-HP-CP-Spotlight

    Honolua Bay is home to a hollow, powerful, long, multi-section wave, making it one of Hawaii’s most epic surf breaks. Australian surfing legend and four-time world champion Mark Richards once named it “the ultimate wave – the best wave in the world.”

    It is a perfect wave– when younger, I surfed it

  3. I think this bears repeating and taking to heart by everyone-
    The human footprint on earth is the biggest of any species ever,
    and that situation can only be temporary since it is an extremely damaging event.
    Damaging enough that our overextended position will come to hit us hard as the underpinning of our
    physical existence wear too thin.

    Its not just the obvious that anyone can look and see. Things like
    -replacement of the vast majority of living creatures over 5 pounds by humans and their kept animals
    -the damming of the worlds major rivers and heavy deforestation of all the continents except the boreal north
    -replacement of all the worlds fertile lands diverse landscapes with mono-culture sterilized agriculture
    for example.

    But it is also at the less visible level, even down to the
    -chemistry and heat of the oceans, and the basic plankton level ocean foodchains
    -the chemistry of the atmosphere
    -the microbiology and chemistry and thickness (loss) of the worlds soils
    -steep loss of populations of small land creatures like insects, birds, amphibians, small mammals and all kinds of things that we can only see with magnification and poking around into the marginal places
    -dead zones in the estuaries, deltas and adjacent oceans involving of all rivers downstream of cities, towns, industry and agriculture. These waters and adjacent lands before 5000 yrs ago have been the most fertile and diverse places for life on earth since forever!

    It is too easy for humans to turn their back the science of these issues,
    preferring to face toward the fire and dazzle of modern 8 billion living.

    1. This is a great comment. And it’s something I think about frequently.

      I’ve come to realize that this is all baked into the mix of being a big-brained ape: As soon as we began chattering to each other and drawing our delusions on cave walls, the planet was destined to be destroyed.

      There is no governor of the human species. There are certainly persons and entities with great power, but none of them governs the species as a whole.

      The only governor is natural selection.

      The more tools and gadgets we invent, the more blind we become to this fact, because we keep toppling the checks on our existence. But nothing grows unchecked forever.

      1. Indeed.
        For now we are on the path towards being restrained by un-natural selection.
        And thus we will continue to be less and less well-suited to the natural world
        on/in which we still exist.

  5. Test drove the Rivian SUV (R1S) yesterday.
    Over 7k pounds but drives like sports car.
    Very impressive, but very expensive!

  6. Anybody wanna take a guess which side of the Dilbert cartoon guy incident Elon Musk is on today?

      1. The virus has insertions at strategic locations in the genome from previously known viruses.

        The probability of that arising out of nature is astronomically small.

        Also, arising out of nature right next to a virology lab is an amazing coincidence.

        1. “The virus has insertions at strategic locations in the genome from previously known viruses.”

          I’ll consider that statement alluding to gene manipulation to be bullshit 100% until proof is shown.
          All published international scientific studies and reports of genome sequencing have shown zero
          evidence of human manipulation of the Covid 19 genome.
          Zero.
          Not just from the first month, but all along.

          Try to keep simple facts straight. The world is sphere. Gravity is real.
          Show the proof , or go post on Qanon.

          1. Wow….it just happened to show up near a Virology Lab. What are the odds?

            What do they do at Virology labs? Ummmm…tinker around with viruses????

            Why not the deep Amazonian jungle or the African savannah of our ape ancestors where humans eat all kinds of megafauna, where there are no Virology labs????

            Well the FBI, the best investigators in the USA ( and better than your research Hickory )

            (maybe they have an agent working at Wuhan that you don’t know about, like they had at Mar-a-lago??? )

            agrees it was from Wuhan Lab. Sorry, I don’t believe the FBI is corrupt and conspirational. I think they are overwhelmingly true professionals

            Any FBI agent that gets caught lying is eligible for a huge prison sentence….not worth it to lie for a 100k salary.

            If you get investigated by the FED’s you better tell the truth or it is a long time in prison.

            All the political bullshit goes out the door.

            See Sean Hannity selling out Fox News on the Dominion election bullshit. He admitted Fox News was lieing under oath.

            1. Grape Ape.
              If you have found some credible scientific reports that show any evidence that this virus has been manipulated by humans, please share with us.
              As far as I know, there has not been a single report of this in the worlds scientific publications- in fact it has been the contrary…a complete lack of any evidence.

              Yes, the virology lab was working with Corona viruses and therefore escape/release from the lab is something to be very suspicious of. Kind of like how you first look at the husband when a married women is murdered.

              But lab release , whether due to sloppiness or intentional, is not genetic manipulation.
              This is an important distinction to understand.

            2. Hickory,

              I am not a scientist. But I love science. I will always go with the evidence.

              I have not followed the science on this but my hunch is the Chinese were playing around with this thing in their lab.

              I am not suggesting they were trying to hurt anyone with it. They just accidentally leaked it.

              Seems plausible to me. But I don’t know how you could ever 100% prove something came from a lab or that you actually had identified Patient Zero even if you literally saw them working on it with your own eyes.

              Chris Martenson has done a lot of work on this, I can’t be bothered to go thru it all.

              https://peakprosperity.com/bombshell-damning-evidence-leaked/

              “A leaked document shows that in 2018 the EcoHealth alliance had pitched DARPA to fund a huge amount of work on bat coronaviruses including mixing and matching the most dangerous elements of them (so-called chimeric virus assemblies) as well as identifying and inserting the best human furin cleavage sites in them to increase pathogenicity.”

            3. Grape Ape: Loch Ness Monster, Yeti, Bigfoot, Space Aliens, Lizard People, Pedophiles in the basement of a pizza parlor, EVERYONE is Corrupt, long term inflation/deflation, QAnon insights, and **all this is definitely going to happen**, “what are the odds that…”, ad nauseam. Even with a few beers in me at a bar, this gets very tiresome very quickly with all the conjectures. Too much noise (tabloid fodder/slanted news), not enough signal (solid references). “Don’t feed the trolls.”

        2. The probability of that arising out of nature is astronomically small.
          The probability of it arising in a single virus particle is astronomically small, but the number of virus particles is astronomically large.You need to check the math of such claims carefully.

          It’s also worth noting that viruses are just random globs of organic molecules tuned to adapt to changing environments. Fred Hoyle famously claimed there was as much chance of life coming into being naturally as there is of a tornado in a junkyard creating a Boeing 747. That kind of “proof by incredulity” arguments rarely hold much water.

          Another interesting example is how species seem to be able to spread to islands across oceans, like monkeys spreading from Africa to South America on driftwood. These events are extremely unlikely, but they happen.

          I recommend the movie “Contagion”. It gives you a good intuitive feeling for how improbable an outbreak is. Despite that, the fact is that viruses constantly mutate and often switch hosts.

      2. The Energy Department now joins the Federal Bureau of Investigation in saying the virus likely spread via a mishap at a Chinese laboratory. Four other agencies, along with a national intelligence panel, still judge that it was likely the result of a natural transmission.

        The headline should read “DOA picks a side; now 5 to 2”. This changes nothing. Nice distraction though.

        Funny how those who want to study covid virus establish labs proximal to the habitat it’s found in. Very suspicious.

        1. I wouldn’t be surprised if it did escape (via negligence or intent) from that Wuhan virus lab.
          But I’d be extremely surprised if the Chinese government had any role in any of that.

          I repeat that gene sequencing of the virus from labs all over the world have found the exact same result- zero trace of human gene manipulation. And there has been no equivocation on those results.

          1. “I wouldn’t be surprised if it did escape (via negligence or intent) from that Wuhan virus lab.
            But I’d be extremely surprised if the Chinese government had any role in any of that.”

            If it escaped from the Wuhan lab, it escaped from the Wuhan Lab. That is what the FBI is asserting.

            That means the Lab was playing around with it. Although the may not have been manipulating it. I’ll leave that up to the scientists.

            I would assume that means the Chinese government knew about it. But I don’t really understand the Chinese government.

            And some are asserting that the People’s Liberation Army and Xi Ping are internally fighting for control.

            Hence the bizarre balloon behaviour.

        2. Funny how those who want to study covid virus establish labs proximal to the habitat it’s found in. Very suspicious.

          Brilliant, Survivalist! I’ve never heard this expressed more succinctly.

          1. I hear there’s an Ebola lab in west Africa. Very suspicious!

            Whether the virus began its rampage straight from an animal cage, or from a lab after someone had collected it from an animal cage is meaningless. It changes nothing.

            The idea that it’s fabricated or modified in order to be a weapon is stupid. It kills old people with comorbidities. Fuckin’ idiots.

            Silver lining; COVID-19 primed the H5N1 Anti Mask Moron Death Pump™.

            Wait for it.

            PS- I like 3M 1/2 mask respirators and the 2091 P100 filters. Good kit.

            1. H5N1 is not into humans yet (we do have a vaccine).
              Other mammals have acquired it.

            2. Quite a few people have had it although it’s not human to human transmissible…. yet.

        3. Don’t forget this part:

          “The FBI concluded in 2021 that the virus leaked from a lab and said it did so with ‘moderate confidence’. The Energy Department has switched its position and done so with ‘low confidence’, the WSJ reported.”

          Moderate confidence and low confidence from the 2 of the 5.

          1. “Four other agencies, along with a national intelligence panel, still judge that it was likely the result of a natural transmission”

            2 of the 7

            Four others plus National Int Panel vs FBI/DOA

            It’s 5 to 2 in favor of natural transmission.

            Nothing has changed other than we now have a meaningless and distracting headline in the news feed, courtesy of WSJ. As usual.

            On the reception and detection of pseudo-profound bullshit
            https://journal.sjdm.org/15/15923a/jdm15923a.html

          2. That’s a good point Bob.

            I don’t see how you can be 100% sure of where a virus originated or who Patient Zero is.

            You could only be suspicious based on the proximity to a virology lab and potential insertions that differentiate it from coronaviruses in the wild.

            Unless you have operatives that are either in the lab, or hacked the lab, or some other sophisticated investigative technique.

            BTW, Why the hell is the Department of Energy involved in this? Shouldn’t they be working on our energy security???

            1. DOA has an intelligence wing.
              USA has about 18 intelligence agencies.
              It’s also worth noting that many CIA agents spend their entire career undercover as a DOA analyst, traveling the world, making connections, assessing peeps, climbing the ladder; it’s likely that DOA is top heavy with CIA placements.
              IMHO it’s a big nothing burger; a meaningless distraction; an op.

              https://www.dni.gov/index.php/what-we-do/members-of-the-ic

              My guess is NSA sucks up every email and text message in China that they can get their hands on and comb it for banter. A healthcare worker or two prob let a few ‘reply all’ emails fly with all kinds of juicy gossip. It’s all signals intelligence. People talk.

            2. I did find it disappointing that the Chinese government was not ‘open book’ on the early pandemic human trail forensics.
              This makes me think they have embarrassment about either lax security measures at that lab, or simply poor handling of the early outbreak before it ever made the news.
              Transparency would have been worth their effort, regardless of the findings.

              And yes on those 3-M masks/filters. I keep a kit on hand for woodworking, kayak building.

            3. The Department of Energy is mostly interested in nuclear weapons. The name is mostly a cover. It confused a lot of people, including Rick Perry’s election team, who obviously thought the department was interesting in oil and gas. The oil and gas industry sees itself as the energy industry,though oil is an expensive source of energy mostly useful as a way to store energy in a moving vehicle.

    2. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11805431/FBI-director-says-COVID-leaked-Wuhan-lab-likely-potential-lab-incident.html

      FBI Director confirms COVID most likely leaked from the Government controlled lab.

      Grape Ape is right again!!!

      “‘So here, you’re talking about a leak at a Chinese government-controlled lab that killed millions of Americans, and that’s precisely what that capability was designed for.’ “

      Design implies the Chinese were playing around with it.

        1. You’re right changes about nothing.

          5 ( 4 low confidence ) vs 2 ( 1 low confidence and 1 most likely confidence)

          Also, FBI guy said China is trying to obfuscate the investigation.

          Looks like each agency is playing it safe.

          I’m betting the FBI is correct. They dig thru DNA all the time.

          1. You know, sometimes if you want to beat a dead horse, you gotta keep standing it up again; maybe prop it up against a wall with some boards.

            What’s your theory as to why one of the alphabet agencies is all of a sudden blowing hard on something that means absolutely nothing; and is doing so by offering no evidence or data; to what end? What is the evidence? What exact path did the “leak” take?

            5 to 2; and the 2 are on blast; all the time, all of a sudden; for no discernible reason.

            https://youtu.be/sJNK4VKeoBM

            https://youtu.be/rDXN7T3-Jrg

            https://us.sagepub.com/sites/default/files/upm-assets/102172_book_item_102172.pdf

            1. I don’t believe the CIA has voted yet.

              Accusing the Chinese government of tinkering with a virus ( learning how they work ) as a weapon is a claim that you BETTER GET RIGHT or your career is on the line at a minimum.

              Probably easier to play it safe ( Low Confidence on either side of the fence )

              Do you really think China isn’t doing biological weapons research? Seriously……..

              I don’t find that hard to believe AT ALL.

            2. Tell me you don’t know shit about war without telling me you don’t know shit about war.

              Of course China is doing biological warfare research. Don’t be obtuse.
              Everybody does it. Canada does it. For defensive research purposes at a minimum.

              You been under a rock?
              Holy fuck

              https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2022/12/15/report-intelligence-agencies-didnt-move-fast-enough-to-collect-covid-data-00074146

              Nothing has changed. It’s easy to see, especially if you don’t have an agenda to push stupid taking points.

              Let us know when Avril Haines chimes in on it. That’ll be news worthy.

            3. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11805431/FBI-director-says-COVID-leaked-Wuhan-lab-likely-potential-lab-incident.html

              FBI Director and DOA proves it is not a stupid talking point.

              Survivalist or the FBI – A NO BRAINER FBI 99%

              Survivalist reads shitty blogs about war and knows more than everyone.

              China has a WUHAN VIROLOGY lab that the FBI has identified for biological weapons research…

              Have you seen the place surrounded by armed military guards?

              When were u last in WUHAN eating your SNAKE NUGGETS with POSSUM BBQ sauce?

              I don’t have a stupid agenda to push talking points. I am just reading what the news is saying.

              I consider low confidence assessments someone playing it safe. Where they can switch to the other side without being wrong.

              As the evidence accumulates.

              What do you think?

            4. Puzzling out the COVID origin question in a stream of typed out consciousness at the expense of our collective boredom.

              Maybe cruise over to JHK’s blog, or the Club Orlov guy, if all you wanna do is push your stupid COVID conspiracy theories. All you got is BS.

              Have a nice day Caelan.
              Try hold it together.

            5. If you think the FBI thinking “there is something here is” insignificant.

              I am at a loss for words.

              And it is all over the news. Not because of me.

              And I am not Caelan. Are u?

              I have a good grasp on internet security. The best thing to do is not to use it.

              Otherwise don’t post who you are.

              how did I do this?

              Reply

              SurvivalistxIgnored says:

              02/25/2023 at 7:32 am

        2. Don’t let it bother you Survivalist….he just doesn’t understand the issue
          and has dug himself into a septic pit on it.
          As he said earlier, he is not a scientist and doesn’t know how to sort through the lay press on these kind of issues.
          Geopolitics is another issue he doesn’t seem to digest either.
          Embarrassed for him.

          Reluctantly, I will use the ignore button.

          1. Grape Ape’s comments are too weak to be a persuasion job. It’s just narcissistic abuse lol.

            Prob that dude who thinks they’re a green anarchist who keeps circling by.

          2. “Embarrassed for him”

            LOL

            “Prob that dude who thinks they’re a green anarchist who keeps circling by.”

            According to Survivalist I am a sadist, stupid, psychopath, narcissist and green anarchist.

            Because I am intrigued by the FBI saying that the virus came from a lab.

            It seems as if most of the World is too.

            You 2 guys must just be smarter than everyone else.

            see ya!

    3. They state with moderate confidence while four unnamed agencies in the leaked paper to the WSJ said the opposite and two more unnamed in the middle. Out of eight agencies with intel depts two are identified. I think this is part of Mike Gallagher’s Congressional hearings on China’s alleged existential threat to Murica,
      Google up Division Z DOE. There are many gov’t agencies with intel depts and post 9/11 many got a boost in funding to deal with the many boogiemen outside the borders, the ones inside are patriots of course.
      My take is that snippets of conclusions and their caveats are mixed up for propaganda purposes. Think of the 2002 NIE on Iraq’s WMD.

  9. We seem to be in whirlpool with the center being a state of multinational warfare.
    Tell me I’m wrong.
    I need lots of good reasons.

    1. The news gets people all amped up.
      Brinksmanship between nuclear powers is no small thing.
      Russia is collapsing, fragmenting, whatever… that’s what happens when global civilization collapses; the vulnerable dominoes fall first. Putin fucked up in Ukraine and now he’s trying to blame ‘the west’ for the pending collapse; says the west is dismembering Russia. Putin is trying to control the blame pattern through grievance farming and playing victim (like most other idiots these days)
      I expect things to cool down once Putin is hanging from a tank barrel. On a long enough timeline China will be taking Siberia. Maybe some chemicals and nukes pop off then and there. Russia is destined to become a small strip of land between the Baltic and the Urals.

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil–military_relations

  10. JF Fleury:
    French liberal government decided to shut down the project of sodium-cooled reactor ASTRID and to invest absurdly in SMR. The CEA scientists involved in this project were devoided of project and they decided to launch by themselves a program of molten salt reactor (MOSARELA for MOlten SAlt REactor and Life-cycle Assesment) based on the works of the LPSC (Laboratoire de Physique Subatomique et Cosmologie) and they received subsidies (perhaps 50 millions euros) as part of the plan of post-covid economic recovery when their American counterpart (Terrapower)

    Anyone who understands this?

    It sounds like MSR’s still are a ways off due to the corrosive fuel mix. So I see continued investment in conventional reasonable.
    Although, At this pt MSR seems to be the best option dealing with peak oil. (?)

    1. I remember discussing molten salt in the 1970s when I was working on gas cooled reactors. The primary issue that I remember is that relatively minor over heating can be catastrophic because when the sodium vaporizes you get a dramatic positive change in reactivity which can cause an explosion.
      The justification for using the metal is that it has a high heat capacity, allowing the reactor to be smaller and carry away more heat from the reaction site. So the very capability that makes the system attractive also makes it more dangerous. Other issues with the concept are startup and cleanup. The metal needs to be liquid to flow whch means that you need to get it hot before you can run the coolant pumps which means that overheating at startup is a risky business. If you have any kind of a problem, say replace a leaky seal in a pump, you have to drain out all of the metal before you can even look at the damage site. Sodium, by the way, reacts explosively with water and can even start to burn just from the humidity in the air.
      The concept of using liquid metal in a machine the size of a football stadium is about as nutty an idea as is possible. Physisits seem to like the idea because it has so many theoretical advantages. Engineers like me hate it because we’re stuck solving the problems.

  11. So, it’s not just India.

    CHINA RAMPS UP COAL PLANT APPROVALS

    “The speed at which projects progressed through permitting to construction in 2022 was extraordinary.”

    The coal power capacity that China began building in 2022 was six times as much as that in the rest of the world combined, the report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) in Finland and the Global Energy Monitor (GEM).

    Note: A total of 106 GW of new coal power projects were approved in 2022—the equivalent of two large coal plants per week.

    https://phys.org/news/2023-02-china-ramps-coal-emissions-pledge.html

    1. CO2 levels:

      Feb. 26, 2023 421.23 ppm
      Feb. 26, 2022 419.23 ppm
      1 Year Change 2.00 ppm (0.48%)

  13. Under Putin’s leadership Russia is doing something called “looking wealthy and weak”; that is to say, they can’t fight worth shit and they have a lot of valuable natural resources. A historical analysis of this sort of thing indicates that it does not go well for them. They got some nuke deterrents. That’s about it.

    Conversely, anyone who thinks the US is doing well should go check out the men’s restrooms at the Denver airport.

    1. I don’t understand why Russia isn’t using their air force.

      They have air superioirity. – which is what you want in military conflict.

      Maybe they can’t afford to lose the planes.

      Peter Zeihan says this is an existential threat to Russia unless they want to be vulnerable to a multi-front war in the future with no men in their 20s to fight it.

      This increases the likelihood they will use tactical nukes to put an end to this.

      Moldova is next.

      1. Air superiority is contested in Ukraine. Who has it depends on where you are. And it changes. Russia likely has concerns about risking air assets, and is keeping it for a rainy day. My two cents.
        The ethnic republics will go their own way. Russia will get smaller. I don’t mean to be pedantic but I’m not sure that’s an existential threat, it’s the end of empire. UK did it best; with the least fuss; managed the contraction rather then floundered about and pulling the walls down. It’s a rare thing.

        And besides, Russia’s pending fragmentation is an issue of internal cohesion, not an external invader; unless CIA et al starts throwing some money around in Caucasia, and until China takes a run at Siberia.

        Using tactical nukes won’t put an end to anything in Ukraine. There’s several centuries of good literature on how fanatically they would defend themselves. I doubt nukes will get used because the Russian Army can’t win in Ukraine. An invading force going into Russia proper might get tac nuked. That’s about it.

        1. I know stingers (supplied by NATO/USA) can take down helicopters and low flying aircraft.

          Can they take down fighter jets at 50,000 feet? The Ukraine doesn’t have an air force I don’t believe.

          1. Ukraine’s Air Force has a fleet of ageing Soviet-era fighter jets. The warplanes are used for intercept missions and to attack Russian positions.

            As you can imagine, current inventory, operational condition, etc is not available.

            The control map is a good indication of who has air superiority where. Air superiority will be very localized depending on who controls the ground under the airspace.

            https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-26-2023

            Stingers are good for about 15,000 feet. It keeps any close air support off your back and fucks up any high speed aircraft on a low altitude run if you can get close to in front of them. UK has a quality ManPad called starstreak that’s good for 23,000 feet, but I haven’t checked to see if they’re going to Ukraine. They probably are. Buk and NASAMS will hit targets up to about 50,000 feet.

            1. If I remember correctly Stingers supposedly played a big part in the Soviet failure in Afghanistan by keeping the Russian air force away from low level operations.
              Seeing our own failure there maybe the Stingers weren’t necessary.

      2. The Russians (well strictly speaking their proxies) shot down a Malaysian airliner flying at 10,000 meters a few years ago. It was probably more or less unintentional.

        Obviously the Russian air force put two and two together and realized their planes weren’t safe from their heavily armed dingdongs on the ground.

        The concept of joint operations is not well developed in Russia. Tactics have not kept pace with technical innovation.

        So major air campaigns can only be expected from Belarus or Belgorod, where Russia has no forces on the ground across the borer in Ukraine. But even those would require suppressing Ukrainian anti-air first, and Russia’s drone based attempts have mostly been shut down.

        That is why the damaging of a Russian plane on the ground in Belarus by claimed Belarussian partisans was so interesting. The plane was designed to guide fighter planes to anti-aircraft ground positions, and would be used in a first step to attacked Ukraine by air from the North.

        1. Ukraine is making keen moves with fixed wing drones.
          Tiger Shark drones are being used to drop GPS guided 81mm mortar bombs (already in the system) from 7000 feet and hitting within about 25 feet of aiming point.
          The amount of time from target detection to target destruction is being shortened quite a bit. Various elements can upload target coordinates to target management system and after co formation a loitering drone will drop a few 81mm mortar bombs on it. Future Air Force commanders will have swarms of aircraft, none higher than a knee.

  15. https://cleantechnica.com/2023/02/27/army-of-spiral-welding-wind-turbine-tower-trucks-sets-forth-from-texas/

    This link provides a fairly decent overview of this new tower construction technology, which has been adopted and upgraded from the methods used to manufacture heavy pipe.

    My money says that it will be the go to usual and every day method of constructing turbine towers within a very few years.

    .

    Moving the machinery used to build such towers is going to be a bitch. It will have to be broken down to truck loads, heavy foundations must be prepared, power lines to run it must be in place, etc.

    But moving heavy equipment of this nature is an old hat job in the mining industry. I’ve worked a couple of times on a crew moving everything necessary to run a mine quarrying stone used for gravel, this being a great short term job for a tradesman who likes long hours but short term commitments. You can get paid to drive a truck for twelve hours a day seven days a week and have to actually drive it only a couple of hours a lot of days, lol. Everything past forty is overtime. Eight weeks on means making as much money as sixteen to eighteen weeks on other jobs, leaving you free for your own projects for the following two or three months, lol.

    Moving and setting up takes anywhere up to a couple of months, maybe a little longer. They mine, crush and stock pile the stone into gravel on site, enough to sell for as much as three or four years, and when it’s about gone, they bring the machinery back for another production run.

    The machinery needed to build turbine towers on site will likely take even less time to move from site to site. This is a real game changer. The price of an erected tower, excluding the foundation, ready for the gen set and turbine blades to be mounted, is going to fall by half at least, and there will be zero materials used in it that can’t be recycled indefinitely.

    (The projected life of such a tower may be thirty or forty years, but in actuality, it’s likely to be good indefinitely, so long as it’s not over stressed by mounting ever bigger and heavier turbines. ( It’s sop in some industries to deliberately overload equipment, because doing so can be extremely profitable. This is commonly done in off road trucking . I once upon a time ran fifty ton trucks ( It took FOUR HOURS training to get on as an off road driver, given that I had on road experience.) that were routinely loaded until rocks were falling off all along the haul road. This saved one round trip out of every four.)

    I find it highly amusing that the company bringing this equipment to market is from deep dark red Texas, lol.

    1. I suppose that each offshore wind servicing port will have one of these spiral tower manufacturing modules as well.

  16. The canals in Venice have run dry . A copy /paste about the Rhine .
    A word about the Rhine.

    Every year, more than 300 million tonnes of goods are shipped on the Rhine between Switzerland and the North Sea. Some 80 per cent of all waterborne freight traffic within Germany goes along the river, which passes by important industrial areas. Chemical company BASF and steel group ThyssenKrupp, among others, rely on the Rhine to supply crucial goods and raw materials. Last week, German energy group Uniper already warned that an important coal-fired power plant near Frankfurt can hardly be supplied with coal any more.

    Freight costs on the Rhine are skyrocketing. Transporting fuel to Basel in Switzerland now costs over €270 per tonne against €25 early this summer

    Switching to transport by rail was no solution, as the German rail network suffers from chronic congestion. In addition, more than 100 trucks are needed to transport one load of an average cargo ship while Germany is facing a severe shortage of truck drivers.

    1. The Rhine is the last natural flowing river for mass transportation in Europe. Technocrats wanted to canalize it already – this would “solve” the problem at huge enviromental costs. But it could be painted green by getting a bit of “green” energy at the watergates. Good thing this is very expensive.

      We have a big green agenda here in Germany, want to get CO2-free in 2030 already ahead of plan – but can’t solve the railway transportation problem.

      It would need an emergency martial law to plan new rail tracks fast through all the neighborhoods and enviromental minefields. At the moment most rail tracks are dual use with passenger traffic – which should be increased, too.

      No capacity in construction economy anyway to do it fast – at the moment any railway construction company is at repairing the normal network being neglected the last 20 years.

      Another thing: When they build out wind really big, will low pressure zones be affected – either by getting more rain (and putting Poland, Ukraine and Russia in the rain shadow), or they float around getting more droughts. A wall of wind turbines can have a similar effect like a wall of a mountain, creating a rain intensive zone in front and a dry zone behind. Putting up an additional 30k wind turbines of the 3MW+ size will have an effect. Perhaps only a dry Rhine in the summer.

      1. Eulen , your last paragraph is of prime importance . Everyone talks about CO2 , a few about methane but nobody talks about water vapour . We read about “rivers in the sky” phenomenon and cities receiving a months rainfall in a day but very few understand the biotic pump . Thanks for bringing this up and sympathy for the consequences that will come because of this madness .
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotic_pump

      2. Eulen,
        The answer to your question is no.
        Wind energy will not change the regional climates.
        The tiny fraction of energy transferred from the moving air mass to the turbines is many magnitudes too small to have the effect you have expressed worry about.
        The are a 1000 more relevant issues to concern yourself with.

        On the other hand, the climate effects of rooftops, asphalt and concrete replacing vegetation is a pretty big deal, for example.

    1. India is not survivable, but I bet Pakistan goes over the falls first.

  18. I have always thought that there must be PLENTY of places we could build pumped hydro storage if only we are willing to pay the political, economic and ecological costs of doing so.

    I’ve seen at least a couple of dozen spots that look GREAT within fifty miles of my home.

    The fossil fuel camp wants us to believe suitable spots just don’t exist, and the environmentalists, taken as a group, have their heads so far up their collective ass they will never see daylight until it’s too late.

    Now there’s no question whatsoever in my mind that the environmental cost of building enough pumped hydro infrastructure to run our country, or the world for that matter, on wind and solar power would be mind boggling.

    But it’s my personal opinion, speaking as realist, that doing so, to the point necessary, in conjunction with batteries, conservation measures, etc, would be a no brainer bargain…… considering the alternatives.

    When things get to the point service stations don’t have gas and diesel , and the grid is going down off and on, we aren’t going to be INCONVENIENCED.

    We’re going to be going to war, country against country, and we’re going to be fighting each other inside our own countries.
    We’ll be burning more and nastier coal, and razing forests for fuel. Untreated sewage will be going into every river……..meaning potable water will go from scarce to unobtainium in most places.

    https://smartwatermagazine.com/news/nrel/researchers-map-out-possible-new-pumped-storage-sites-us

    1. OFM
      I agree with your opinion that pumped hydro is likely the only realistic means of storing large amounts of energy for long periods of time, but there is an energy cost to that storage as well, and a requirement that you have surplus energy available to put into storage. Large reinforced concrete structures, water turbines, generators, electrical transmission lines, transformers etc. All with maintenance requirements and finite lifetimes.
      It seems probable to me that in the developed countries the general public will have to learn to live with sporadic power and energy supplies ( as much of the world already does), slowly becoming more and more sporadic. Continuous energy being reserved to industries that cannot function without it, and of course, the elite.
      And that is just the easiest part of the downward slope.

        1. As I recall the three laws of thermodynamics are:
          1. You can’t win
          2. You can’t even break even
          3. You can’t get out of the game.
          4. The perversity of the universe tends towards a maximum (entropy)

      2. Hi Old Chemist,
        I’m with you, pretty much all the way.

        If we’re lucky, we can hopefully have enough wind and solar capacity, by over building, and building lots of new long distance transmission lines, plus pumped storage on the grand scale, to keep essential industries running reliably.

        And so far as other industries are concerned, and we the people are concerned, you’re again right in my opinion. We’re going to have to learn to get by with intermittent electricity, and sometimes we might have only a little juice available for days at a time.

        Now I’m a farmer, retired, and grew up working with nature, instead of against Her, and I could easily arrange my affairs to live with almost no electricity at all, for days at a time.

        If I could have a battery big enough to run a refrigerator, my well pump, and a couple of lights reliably, I would be as well off, or better off, than grandparents were when they were young, with no electricity at all.

        We tend to forget what’s possible, when the chips are down, and it’s do or die time. Hardly anybody at all, especially in the environmental camp, is willing to seriously talk about REAL austerity, because it SCARES them, and scares the typical half awake man or woman on the street………. who then goes running to the fossil fuel camp for reassurance and comfort, lol.

        But barring extraordinarily good luck, we’re looking at a more or less universal economic and ecological collapse, due to overshoot, sometime in the not too distant future.

        I’m personally cautiously optimistic that with great luck, meaning good leadership, we Yankees and the people of some other similarly situated countries can pull thru the bottle neck more or less whole…… meaning without people starving in the street, and without widespread uncontrollable violence, that sort of thing.

        What we will have to do is come together, understanding that it IS a do or die situation, and go to a wartime style economic system so as to put such resources as we have to the best possible use.

        If we were to modernize our health care system to the point it runs as efficiently as the typical Western European system, we could use the savings to build pumped hydro out the ying yang.

        If we were to spend just half of what we currently spend on totally useless, totally frivolous stuff, we could be building wind and solar farms, and long distance power lines three or four times as fast as we are now.

        Adding just five or ten percent to the cost of building a new house can cut the amount of energy needed to heat and cool it by half or even three quarters. So……… we’ll just have to build smaller houses, if that’s what it takes.

        I actually NEED a full size pickup truck, being a farmer, but nine out of every ten people I see driving one never put anything in the back other than groceries or maybe a bag or two of mulch……… which will fit easily into a subcompact car.

        But such measures as these are only scratching the surface.

        In WWII, we quit building cars for the public, so as to build trucks and weapons for the military. Foodstuffs were rationed.

        We are probably going to have to resort to such extreme measures again, when the shit hits the fan.

        Millions of people will have to be put to work on energy conservation and efficiency projects. Millions more will have to find something new to do, because the resources being consumed in their current lines of work will necessarily be diverted to other work.

        A substantial number of people in the auto manufacturing industry, and the infrastructure they use for that purpose, could be put to work manufacturing heat pumps.

        We’re going to find it necessary to put millions of people working in fast food and convenience stores to doing something else………. maybe looking after old people in nursing homes?

        Maybe millions of people who are stuck renting forever, as things are now, can go to work looking after old people in their own homes……. and getting that home, eventually, as part of their salary.

        This is the sort of sacrifice that will be needed in order to hopefully pull thru the bottleneck…… if it can be done.

        And there may be a hell of a lot more patches silver lining in the black clouds than most people would guess. It wouldn’t cost very much at all, at the factory, to build a refrigerator so well insulated that it would run on one fourth the usual amount of juice. It wouldn’t cost hardly ANYTHING extra to build it so that it’s EASILY repairable, for the next fifty years.

        If anybody wants to know HOW this can be done, I’ll gladly reply.

        I see fifty to a hundred washers and dryers scrapped every week in the small town nearest my home. Hardly any of them have anything wrong with them, other than an electronic fault, which is the result of their being built with chickenshit quality circuit boards and components, and the designs being changed as often as twice in a year to save another fifty cents at the factory.

        The people bringing them in from the stores say it’s pretty much a waste of time to try to fix them, even for dealers with supposedly trained technicians and supposed access to repair parts.

        There ought to be a law that says such appliances are fully warranted by the manufacturer for either a certain number of years, say ten years, or a certain number of cycles, say three thousand loads.
        The price of a new one wouldn’t have to go up more than maybe ten to twenty percent in my estimation.

        1. OFM
          Up to the age of five, I lived on a farm with no electricity, water supply was a hand pump at the well and inside, a bucket of water by the kitchen sink. I just thought that was normal. I remember examining my grandmothers modern washing machine, it featured a wood stave tub, armstrong powered wooden paddle for an agitator and a hand-powered wringer with wood rollers. I was impressed with all of it’s features.
          Lesson: Kids accept the world as it is, adults adjusting to decreasing wealth/comfort/convenience is the problem.
          When we did get electricity, my father built an addition on the house for a laundry room and a bathroom, and I remember trying to convince him it was a really,really bad idea to move the toilet indoors.
          Lesson: Be careful extrapolating your experience to the future.
          Because of the war, my father had to keep his old truck running far too long – it was getting about 60 miles to a gallon of engine oil. In 1946 we got a brand new Ford truck, including the optional heater.
          Lesson: Things getting better is sure a lot more fun than getting worse.
          In 1980, we visited my wife’s hometown in the Philippines, they were not on the grid, but had a local generator which supplied power from 6:00 PM until 10:00 PM. A few people had 20 watt fluorescent lights, but you had to get them on in the first half hour because after that the voltage dropped from 220 down to 160 as an energy saving measure. There were no fans, air conditioners, refrigerators or other electrical devices. The only house in town with it’s own generator was the local cat house. The only gas station in town was a lot with a few drums of gas and diesel, a hand pump and some jerry cans. People went to the local open air market to buy their food daily. People were friendly, they laughed and smiled, joked and showed concern for one another. Maybe even happier and more caring than folks in large American cities today.
          Lesson: Life can be satisfying with minimal material posessions as long as you can satisfy the basic items in Maslowe’s hierarchy of needs. A long life is not in that list!

          Your assessment of your own situation seems realistic to me- low population density, relatively benign climate, adequate and reasonably reliable rainfall and fertile soil. The challenge, as I see it ,is when things get ratty elsewhere, will large numbers of folks from Phoenix, New York City, Mexico and elsewhere move in with you to share in your advantages? Somewhere with your advantages and very limited accessibility would probably be preferable.
          Right now the world is maintaining the status-quo by borrowing( printing) money and pretending it will be paid back and that racket will probably carry longer than any of us would believe, but it won’t carry on forever and when it fails, along with decreasing availability of energy and other non-renewable resources, watch out below!
          Rather than whole large countries surviving relatively unscathed, I think small regions – maybe Iceland, Tasmania, other places like that have a chance of avoiding a big drop, instead substituted by a long slow decline.
          As you point out , lots of smart,relatively painless things could be done to ease the path. Don’t hold your breath!

    2. OFM —
      As a native of East Tennessee I’d claim that the people of Appalachia won’t build pumped hydro because the locals lack the culture of controlling the flow of water. The only dams around here were built by the TVA.

      There is a saying “The good Lord willin’ and the crick don’t rise”. I realized how hopeless this is when I visited my wife’s hometown near Fukuoka Japan. One summer day there were suddenly thousands of tiny tree frogs in the garden. Why? They were fleeing the the rice fields, which had all been flooded that day. When the creek rises there, it isn’t an act of god, it is a conscience decision by the local farming cooperatives, planned months in advance.

      Appalachia is a true riches to rags story of land management gone totally wrong. Settled in the early 19th century, and rich for two or three generations. the region suffered an ecological collapse that led to mass emigration and near starvation by the 1930s. The European settlers simply didn’t bring the hydrology skills needed for farming in the mountains that they needed.

      The result has been a culture of dependency on the big companies like mining and lumber companies or the federal government. I grew up very close to AP Carter’s country store, but the locals found old timey music embarrassing. Instead of banjo music, they train high school students for German style brass bands wearing brass buttoned uniforms and playing oompha music for the local football team. This is a cartoonish echo of Prussia’s Gloria borrowed from German immigrants to the North and West. The local cuisine has also mostly been replace by frozen ground beef from Midwestern feedlots.

      Using hydrology to solve energy problems without outside help will be a hard idea to sell. The idea of energy self sufficiency isn’t even on the table. Questioning to dependency on oil and coal is a heresy — just ask Joe Manchin. Furthermore, I still hear jokes about “pamper bushes”, creekside trees with disposable diapers hanging from the branches. Culturally, the region has a long way to go before people realize they can be their own masters, and they continue display helplessness in key areas.

    1. Tucker Carlson and Alex Jones et al are fascinating to me. Not so much because of who and what they are, which is ridiculous and obscene, but because of how people, American adults mostly, just eat that shit up; and by shit I mean false polarization, grievance farming and conspiracy theories.

      1. You don’t believe in Alex Jones’s Alien Lizard People that are infiltrating the White House

        or

        How the parents of the children who were murdered at Sandy Hook staged the entire thing?

        I am literally stunned anyone could listen to that guy. His net worth is 400 million. Astonishing and depressing.

    1. Yes, this war is clearly escalating the transition to future conflict…with land and air robotics, satellite communication and guidance, and probably a lot of behind the scenes electronic warfare that we don’t hear as much about.
      Its a new landscape. I appreciate your perspective on it, hoping to be slightly less shocked by developments as they unfold.

      1. I feel that global civilization is starting to collapse, so to speak. It doesn’t surprise me that Russia is fragmenting and Putin is trying to gain cohesion through conflict.

        What does surprise me is watching all the various collapse peeps go on for approx a decade about collapse pending, and then seeing some get all sentimental and politically polarized when Russia has to eat a shit sandwich.

        It’s par for the course; shit sandwiches for all; worse and more of it. What you expecting to happen?

        If you’re gonna start crying over Russia now, it’s gonna be a long couple decades.

  21. Are you new to POB? If so, IMHO, it might be a good idea to read the room first. If the discussion is calm and you’re outrage is extreme, this calls for a very different approach than if you are calm and the discussion is full of those who are outraged. Similarly, if you are joining a discussion late and problems have been worked through and resolved to satisfaction of many or all, coming in and restarting the problem or upping the outrage factor is not going to be helpful or appreciated, especially if your only evidence is a headline from the news that you keep repeating over and over again.

    1. How can you measure outrage on the internet? I am definitely not outraged.

      I gave a direct quote from an FBI official?

      I didn’t make him say it.

      Do you seriously believe that suspicions about a VIROLOGY LAB are unwarranted?

      Ok…maybe not on an ENERGY blog. But I thought this was the part of the blog where you could talk about what you wanted.

      I will stop. This is going nowhere.

      thanks…wish all the best.

  22. U.S. Dept of Energy says with ‘low confidence’ that COVID may have leaked from a lab

    “The U.S. Department of Energy says with “low confidence” that COVID-19 might have originated in a lab leak. But the scientific evidence overwhelmingly points to a natural origin for the virus.”

    “low-confidence designation – the information is scant, questionable, fragmented or that solid analytical conclusions cannot be inferred from this information.” ~ US Gov

    https://www.npr.org/2023/02/28/1160157977/u-s-dept-of-energy-says-with-low-confidence-that-covid-may-have-leaked-from-a-la

    Meanwhile, the evidence produced by the greater scientific community points overwhelmingly to a natural cause, via exposure to an infected animal.

    I would like to ask the question that all great historians ask; SO WHAT?

    1. And the naturalists were “low confidence” as well.

      Low confidence is a safe position.

      You can change your position and not look like an idiot.

      If the evidence is that it came from nature…then that is what it is.

      If it is suspicous that someone is playing with it ( I think you underestimate the FBI ) then that is what it is.

      thanks it was fun for me.

      good luck

        1. “I’ll follow what the scientific community finds.”

          That is a smart decision that I agree with.

          Just remember, sometimes the FBI knows what other people don’t.

          Perhaps they have an informant……

          1. Perhaps you can think of all kinds of stupid reasons to believe what you want.

            1. “Perhaps you can think of all kinds of stupid reasons to believe what you want.”

              Have you ever worked for the Federal Police?

              They like to mine your relationships, emails, texts, internet usage, CCTV, Travel, etc, etc, tec for information. And of your family members too…

              The FBI called the Wuhan lab a Biological Warfare lab that works on Coronaviruses. Who is stupid?

              Britains are demanding MI6 throws there hat into the ring. Just ask Survivalist guys!!

              Were still waiting on the CIA (what is taking them so long….Survivalist already knows the answers)

              Imagine that…A coronavirus with exactly the right mutation appeared at the food market down the street from a biological weapons lab that studies coronaviruses.

            2. “Perhaps they have an informant….”

              You’re suggestion that the FBI has effective HumInt operations on the ground in China indicates you don’t know what you’re talking about and that you’re just making up stupid reasons to justify your conspiracy.

              The CIA falsely believed it was ‘invincible’ in China — here’s how its spies were reportedly discovered and killed in one of the biggest blows to the agency
              https://www.businessinsider.com/how-china-found-cia-spies-leak-2018-8?amp

              You sound like a cross between a skipped record and a stupid person who pulls random ideas out their imagination to support their rigid beliefs.

              In the comedy industry they call it “commitment to the bit”. Maybe try open mic night at the JHK site or the Club Orlov guy.

            3. My ideas are identical to what the FBI concluded as most likely.

              That doesn’t seem stupid to me?

              That doesn’t seem like a conspiracy?

              It seems perfectly reasonable to listen to what the FBI is saying. And if the evidence changes, I’ll change my mind.

              “The FBI has folks, agents, professionals, analysts, virologists, microbiologists, etc, who focus, specifically, on the dangers of biological threats, which includes things like novel viruses like COVID, and the concerns that in the wrong hands some bad guys, some hostile nation state, a terrorist, a criminal, the threats that that could pose,’ Wray said.”

              If you think all these guys are lieing, I really don’t know what to say. It would be impossible to prevent a whistle blower.

              And if you don’t think the FBI has access to more information than you do….YOU GOT ROCKS IN YOUR HEAD.

            5. LOL. That was a good one. Kicked me right in the gut.

              But don’t forget you were posting right there with me.

              Sorry, I got carried away with a potential new twist in what gripped the world for 2 years.

  24. https://mishtalk.com/economics/largest-us-grid-supplier-warns-of-an-energy-shortage-due-to-undeliverable-mandates

    Largest US Grid Supplier warns of shortages.
    ”
    Expect to pay much higher prices for electricity
    Expect brownouts
    Expect missed targets
    Expect most of the thousands of project requests on hold to be economically unviable.
    Expect many economically unviable projects to continue anyway paid for by taxpayer subsidies.
    Expect much higher inflation.
    Don’t expect any of this to do a damn thing for the environment.”

  25. CO2 Emissions in 2022

    “Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 0.9% or 321 Mt in 2022, reaching a new high of over 36.8 Gt. Following two years of exceptional oscillations in energy use and emissions, caused in part by the Covid-19 pandemic, last year’s growth was much slower than 2021’s rebound of more than 6%. Emissions from energy combustion increased by 423 Mt, while emissions from industrial processes decreased by 102 Mt.”

    https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2022

    However: in terms of overall effects on climate change the marginal effects from methane are now bigger than from CO2 and the last two years have shown a step change in the rate of atmospheric increase, possibly due to permafrost mely.

    1. What I’m taking away from this is that some more global warming is on the way, correct? Be sure to trade in all your gas powered vehicles for electric, stop eating all meat, and keep your thermostats below 60°F. It will all be worth it for the sake of your children and grandchildren.

  26. U.S. Oil Exports May Be Rising But Production Isn’t

    Very good article. However, I am only going to quote the last paragraph. Bold mine.

    However, with global production set to tighten later in the year with no substantial production increase coming from anywhere, that lid might fall off. Yet even if it does, one thing is for sure, it seems—U.S. oil producers are not going to rush into production growth, possibly ever again.

    1. Ron, this probably should be in the oil section.

      If the predictions are true, this will be a tailwind for oil prices, and with a probable recession around the same time things will be interesting. Seems like a stagflationary environment is the set up here.

      1. Damn, that’s where I thought I put it. I just was not paying attention. My bad. I will repost it there.

        Edit: (My bad.) Don’t you just hate it when people use an adjitive for a noun. I even hate it when I do it myself.

  27. I got an interesting textin LiveJournal in Russian: News starting with the letter X [68] – there won’t be enough copper for everyone
    For a long time there was no good news, and now they also turned out to be the letter X – this time the material basis of all hopes for a bright (in the electrical sense) future got into the news. All more or less educated people are already well aware that the bright past, where stones with a content of ~ 1% copper were considered copper ore, have long ended. The next group of deposits in the recent past would not even be considered deposits – the copper content there is ~ 0.3%, and in terms of economics they somehow pull into the category “this is of course rubbish, but maybe later” only with a significant content of gold, silver and sometimes molybdenum , so that somehow the “equivalent copper content” (after taking into account by-products) barely reaches ~0.5%. There are no other new ones on the development pipeline. There are old and recent ones, where all the new copper is mined now. And this is how this gloomy picture looks graphically.

    Under any scenario, including absolutely fabulous (in a good way), no increase in copper production by several times, or even by tens of percent, is already possible. The exploration and development pipeline is loaded for at least a dozen years ahead, and it is already known what then can be and what is not. Considering that events are still going according to fabulous (in a bad sense) scenarios, and the next few years there is no line of investors willing to bury capital in the ground for a dozen fabulous years, there is reason to expect a “pessimistic” scenario in which production begins to decline after 2025. This also does not mean that the price will rise, because demand cannot grow in the midst of a global economic depression and war, which demotivates the financing of new mining projects, worsens their already bad economy. Of course, there is an option when the gold content of mining compensates for all the negative due to the inevitable devaluation and flight of capital during the big war into hard assets. But in this case, the copper content turns out to be ballast rather than an asset, so it would be overly optimistic to count on such compensation.

    Similar pictures have already been seen for oil, with a similar reluctance to invest in exploration and development of new fields. If basic materials are in short supply, there will be nothing to replace them – the production of everything else is directly dependent on the production (or availability) of basic materials. One by one, the pillars of the technological civilization supporting the lives of eight billion people are crumbling. Not only copper or oil, but the technological civilization for all of them is no longer enough – spent.

    ps The good news is that The Mandalorian 3.1 is already on the torrents. Link:https://ardelfi.livejournal.com/176864.html?utm_medium=email&utm_source=GuessWhoBack
    I think it’s not so tragic, just copper will rise in price relative to other goods and become less affordable. Electric cars will rise in price.

    1. There may not be enough copper , or other minerals, for everything 9 billion people (2037) want
      but there is still quite a lot to be developed.
      At some point a hard stop will be reached.
      Its past time that humanity realized that downsizing is in order.

      At higher prices there are still big copper reserves that have not been developed.

      There are two good reports on minerals and energy that you may find useful –
      https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary
      https://tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkisto/42_2021.pdf

    2. Copper like some other metals will be hard pressed to deliver on the growth projections thrown around for the green transition.

      Though there are some mitigating factors:
      – copper can be recycled
      – insulated copper wiring can last for a long time period (potentially 50 years+)
      – aluminium can be used as a substitute in some areas (high voltage transmission, industrial scale power cables)

      It is possible to envisage a future for personal transportation with a lot fewer 2.5 tons car (but electric ones) that are utilised much more frequently. Light (800-1000 kg) stripped down commuter/limited range cars made of plastics or recycled steel with small battery packages. More use of simple transportation devices (electric bicycles, scooters) also being electric. Or simply being located in cities with most infrastructure nearby in walking distance and access to public transportation.

      That is how it is possible to cope with a lot less of the critical metals than projected and still have a reasonable range of mobility for most people.

      1. “Although there are mitigating factors:
        – copper can be recycled
        – insulated copper wiring can last for a long period of time (potentially 50 years)
        – aluminum can be used as a replacement in some areas (high voltage transmission, industrial scale power cables)”
        —-
        Of course, you are right. But you need to keep in mind that this is all already being used now. All copper waste is recycled, and aluminum is used wherever copper can be replaced, for example, in cheap electric motors, electrical wiring.

    1. Good video Survivalist. Looks like I may have gotten it wrong.

      Surprising that the FBI virologists and microbiologists who specialize in bio-weapons would overlook those arguments. Would love to hear them respond.

      See I am not such a bad guy ( sadist, narcissist, green anarchist, psychopath, sociopath, stupid, etc )

      I would hate to see what you think of the FBI personnel who have a far far broader audience than me.

        1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaJt5jC5gbY

          “FBI are booger eaters”

          Sounds like you are unbiased.

          Check out the analysis above. This guy is only a sadist, psychopath, stupid and a green anarchist (wtf?)

          His argument is there is no evidence of an evolutionary progression…..this thing hit the ground running which suggests it was manufactured.

            1. Survivalist,

              Give me a break, Dr John Campbell was initially following whatever the mainstream media was spouting and he slowly changed his mind overtime like many in the field of medicine and epidemiology. Unlike you who displays nothing but hubris and chest pounding.

              Yea whoever doesnt agree with you is an idiot. Oh the irony

            2. Dr Campbell, a PhD educator, was sharing good info until COVID. Then he cracked. Just like all the rest of the weak and vulnerable minds.

              Anyone who believes Dr John Campbell on COVID info is down in the dirt dumb.

              Stay mad.

            3. Lol “vulnerable minds”. Once again you managed to out do yourself on the irony chart.

              You would have made a good inquisitor in the dark ages buddy.

            4. My personal feeling is that it’s ok if you decide to follow the advice of COVID and Wellness grifters.

              It’s likely a feature of the pending population bottleneck.

              “A low confidence level generally indicates that the information used in the analysis is scant, questionable, fragmented, or that solid analytical conclusions cannot be inferred from the information, or that the IC has significant concerns or problems with the information sources.” ~ US Fed Gov

              Anybody who infers solid analytical conclusions from low confidence information is a booger eater; to wit, a child. Time to put your big boy pants on.

            5. Survivalist,

              The most honest position is that we don’t know. And that is the only thing I embrace and promote. Uncertainty. The world we live in is highly complex and uncertain.

              My greatest issue is humans who think they know. Dunning-Kruger effect is one of the greatest issues with humans. And you exhibit it strongly my friend.

              Your M.O is division. You divide people my beliefs vs theirs and you create conflict.

              People like you are part of the problem and why your country the United States is currently deeply fractured. Instead of accepting people will have differing opinions and experiences to you and respecting that, especially regarding complex issues, you chose to resort to name calling. Hence making the discussion destructive.

              I am only putting up a mirror for you to see your own conditioning.

            6. I suggest it is Grape Ape that creates conflict. I’m just argumentative and slightly rude to stupid people who never shut up about COVID conspiracy theories, like the FBI and the Wall Street Journal for example.
              I do not create division; division exists in the world, like division over belief in COVID conspiracy theories for example. It’s called free speech. Maybe you need a safe space?

            7. Being divisive isn’t disagreeing with someone.

              Being divisive is calling someone a sadist, an embarrasment (Hickory), psychopath, sociopath, stupid, etc. for disagreeing with you.

            9. Devastating. It seems that U2b success turned Campbell into a megalomaniac. “Who’s giving more clicks? The cranks?”

              Well, crank away!

          2. Thank you Iron Mike.

            Survivalists only Survival is on DOOM and GLOOM sites. And acting like the FBI is out to get him. (which they might be after his insults on the internet ….LOL!!!!!!!!)

            I would take the FBI over his opinion any day of the week.

            The idea that the FBI is super corrupt, is only accepted by a guy who has dedicated his life to anti-government survivalism.

            Hickory’s arrogance can be annoying as well. Quit kissing this idiots ass.

            Hey Hickory: If you think you are smarter than the FBI and CIA you are an IDIOT and PROVE IT!

            2. No evolutionary pathway.

              Hit the ground running.

              Survivalism suggests a certain mindset. Anti-government is one that comes to mind.

            3. And I forgot…

              We have this new technology called the internet.

              This means that anyone with an internet connection can contact the FBI and whistle blow.

              Perhaps a disgruntled employee, someone with a guilty conscious, someone trying to escape China, a family member, a visting researcher, some kid who got on his parents laptop and found the docos, etc

              And they can encrypt and send documents from a lab as well.

              But the FBI is not going to make that publicly available information

              Happens all the time!

              “Most Likely” is a foolish mistake if they aint got no evidence. And not likely by an organisation that goes to court all the time to present evidence.

            4. Perhaps you’re just pulling stupid ideas out of your ass.
              You’re not very persuasive.

            5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NcFiDpErJHQ

              A single place, A single origin, at a single time.

              I’m guessing you aren’t a successful gambler?

              That isn’t how pandemics progress. They leave evolutionary trail marks.

              No “trail of tears” an animal migrating ( voluntarily or involuntarily ) would have left behind.

              Definitley not stupid.

              How is your anti-government bunker doing?

            6. The fact is that it is neither the official position of the FBI nor of the Department of Energy that the Covid 19 virus was created in a lab. Just because some YT video says so doesn’t make it a fact.

              Th FBI says it is likely that the virus was leaked by a lab. The claim it was designed by a lab is just goofy conspiracy theory.

            8. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11805431/FBI-director-says-COVID-leaked-Wuhan-lab-likely-potential-lab-incident.html

              Out of the FBI’s mouth:
              “‘So here, you’re talking about a leak at a Chinese government-controlled lab that killed millions of Americans, and that’s precisely what that capability was designed for.’ “

              Selective Breeding of an already existing coronavirus or making insertions into an existing coronavirus is certainly within our technical capabilities.

              You do realize the FBI employs VIROLOGISTS for bio weapons research? they are probably smarter than u about viruses and what capabilities countries have.

              The FBI has more information than you do. It is classified. Why is this so hard to understand?

              They probably don’t willy nilly share it with the other agencies. In government they have separate repositories of information. To share it is cumbersome and there are process roadblocks.

      1. Another COVID grifter.

        Sub 8k views approx average prior to COVID. Went viral with COVID. Now he’s chasing the heat in the comments trynna sell subscriptions to the unwashed.

        Thanks for the tip. I’ll request a Debunk the Funk video.

        There seems to be a correlation between peeps from the Peak Oil community, and I use that term lightly, who were always trynna sell something (subscriptions, advertising on site, several books, whatever), and those peeps from the Peak Oil community who turned into COVID conspiracy theory enthusiasts; Peak Prosperity, JHK, Club Orlov guy, etc.

        A lot of well received pro Putin sentiments in their comments threads too, because he’s hyper masculine or something.

        I find it interesting to pay attention to who from the peak oil/collapse community speaking circuit no longer appears on JHK or Peak Prosperity Podcasts.

        The content output of these mountebanks has more to do with targeted marketing than it does with science and education. They’re carnival barkers.

        Controversial statements, on the record. Cue the histrionics.

        1. Some of those peeps you cite above were shitheads from the get-go. Not one of them is a geologist, either.

          Do you want to squirm? Watch The End of Suburbia again. It’s a festival of blabbermouths and fruitcakes.

          No one actually listened to Hubbert, who wasn’t so concerned about actual peak date, but more concerned with “we can do it now,” meaning make the shift to alternative energy systems. He was saying this back in the 1980s, for cripe’s sake. Imagine what the world would be like now if TPTB had listened.

          No one actually listened to Colin Campbell, either, who repeatedly reminded us that the date of peak wasn’t important; it was “the vision of the long decline afterward” that was important. Imagine what the world would be like if we had listened to him a mere twenty years ago.

          Instead, we have had a coterie of microphone jockeys vying for calling the right date and spewing as many horrendous scenarios as they could think of. When peak failed to transpire “on time,” they moved on to fresh woods, and pastures new, i. e. some new grift.

          I’m not a bit surprised that these peeps are covid cranks.

          1. Cheers Mike. We’re pragmatists, not the keepers of a sacred flame.

            COVID has had a very interesting impact on the peak oil collapse space, so to speak, in terms of some of the talking heads moving on to greener pastures, and others no longer now and then going on their podcast show for a talk. When was the last time that either Art Berman or Nate Hagens appeared as guests on either Peak Prosperity or JHK podcasts?

            There appears to have been a division. It’s easy to see, with the help of Grape Ape posting Peak Prosperity COVID links. It’s was needed.

            1. Survivalist , you said this about Dr Campbell “Then he cracked. Just like all the rest of the weak and vulnerable minds. “

            2. I’ve never said anything about Colin Campbell. Provide a reference or a link of me saying otherwise.

              Dr John Campbell is a grifter and a mountebank. He preys on vulnerable minds, like yours, and perhaps has one himself.

              The facts didn’t change. DOE just decided to weight in with a low confidence assessment of the data.

              Chris Martenson seems smart enough to know he’s a grifter, so perhaps lacks a moral compass, is easily duped, or needs the money. I requested Debunk the Funk guy to give him a treatment. I invite others to do the same.

    3. I’ve heard a new logical fallacy that goes like this:
      “it turns out this didn’t actually happen, but what does it say about our society that I believed it did”

      I need a name for it.

  30. Looking at the global wind atlas (https://globalwindatlas.info/en) a lot can be noticed. I tend to use the “mean power density” button. In reality it is pretty complicated with wind speeds at 50 meters, 100 meters or 200 meters above surface being relevant. And also the materials used, despite being environmental undesirable, composite materials (e.g. glass fiber) is a trade off. The trade off being strength, material longevity and environmentally friendliness compared to weight when it comes to turbine blades.

    Some observations:
    – the sea of Asov has excellent wind farm potential (collaboration between two nations needed though…the irony)
    – The strait of Taiwan is one of the best offshore wind resources available. Both China and Taiwan are building out their wind resources there in a fast pace. Peace?
    – Argentina has excellent wind potential to blend with the shale oil/gas developments. Does anyone there notice the long term advantage they would get when exploiting more of the wind resources (combined with shale gas)?
    – Western Sahara is one of the greatest areas for land based windfarms based on wind potential globally. Does anyone live there, is it close to industry or densily inhabited areas. Not so much.

    Never to late to learn something.

    2. Kolbeinih- Agree.
      The wind atlas is a great tool to browse and learn from.
      And the sister atlas Solar too- click the tab at the top left.

      On the wind atlas locations with mean wind speed at 100m hub height over roughly 7.0 m/s [bottom left corner]
      are currently being developed with favorable economics world wide.

      Energy payback times less than 1 year of operation.
      Put that in your eroei pipe and smoke it.

      In regard to ‘mineral realities’ mentioned by hole in head….sure it might be a problem someday later on.
      Add it to your problem list of dozens some where between number 30 and 40,
      and then get to work.
      A much more pressing problem is electrical transmission, grid management, and storage.

  31. On copper and other minerals-
    yes at some point there will be shortages, kind of like already or soon to be seen with
    water, good soil, crude oil, fertilizer components, and compassion.

    Some places and people will (already do) see shortages before others.
    In the aggregate, there will be enough minerals to continue ramping up of solar and wind and EV’s and heat pumps and things like this for another 20 years and more.
    Oil will have declined quite a bit by then, and population will be much closer to peaking.

    A lot will get deployed,
    And at some point it will just have to be enough.

    If you think that humanity will refrain from a major buildout of solar, wind and a more heavily electrified economy just because someday there will not be enough copper or graphite, then I have to point out that you don’t understand how things work in this world. People/countries will push until they hit hard endpoints.

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