Peak Oil Barrel

By Ovi

All of the Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM which provides updated production information up to March 2025.

U.S. March oil production decreased by 1 kb/d to 13,696 kb/d and is down by 168 kb/d from October 2025. The largest decrease came from TX. April production is expected to rise by 49 kb/d to 13,745 kb/d according to the May STEO. Peak US oil production occurred in October 2025 at 13,864 kb/d but may be exceeded in early 2027, according to the STEO forecast.

The dark blue graph, taken from the May 2026 STEO, is the U.S. oil production forecast from April 2026 to December 2027. Output for December 2027 is expected to rise to 14,239 kb/d, upwardly revised by 82 kb/d from last month. From April 2026 to December 2027 U.S. oil production is expected to increase by 494 kb/d.

The light blue graph is the STEO’s forecast for the Onshore L48 output to December 2027. March Onshore L48 production increased by 2 kb/d to 11,303 kb/d. From March 2026 to December 2027 production is expected to increase by 658 kb/d to 11,961 kb/d, upwardly revised by 69 kb/d. The rising production starting in Octoberber 2026, according to the EIA, is due to expected higher prices for WTI and more NG pipelines being built. Note how production is essentially flat out to November 2026.

U.S. Oil Production Ranked by State

Listed above are the 10 US states with the largest oil production along with production from the Gulf of Mexico.

These 10 states accounted for 82.8% of all U.S. oil production out of a total production of 13,696 kb/d in March 2026. On a MoM basis, March oil production in these 10 states dropped by 2 kb/d. On a YoY basis, US overall production increased by 243 kb/d with the largest contributors being Texas and New Mexico and the largest decliner being North Dakota.

State Oil Production Charts

Texas’ March oil production decreased by 26 kb/d to 5,778 kb/d according to the EIA. YoY production rose by 115 kb/d.

The Texas’ RRC initial production for March dropped by 279 kb/d from February to 5,095 kb/d. The projection added 781 kb/d to raise March projected production to 5,876 kb/d. While the projection is very close for January and February, the March projection is showing an increase. The divergence is due to large upward revisions to February production in the March report which results in an optimistic projection.

The red graph is a production projection using the preliminary February and March Texas RRC data.

The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs reported for each month shifted forward by 10 months. So the 276 rigs operating in July 2023 have been shifted forward to May 2024. From February 2024 to July 2024, the rig count dropped from 312 in time shifted February 2024 to 256 in July 2024. That drop of 56 rigs had little impact on production up to July 2025. August 2025 appears to be the first month when the impact of the start of the flat rig count results in essentially flat production. Will the dropping rig count starting in time shifted February/March 2026 result in dropping Texas production going forward?

According to the EIA, New Mexico’s March production was unchanged at 2,307 kb/d. YoY production rose by 42 kb/d, second only to Texas.

The red graph shows the projected output up to March and is calculated using the preliminary February and March NM OCD data. March’s projected production decreased by 8 kb/d from February to 2,249 kb/d and is 58 kb/d or 2.5 % lower than the EIA’s reported March production. While the EIA and projection numbers are slightly different, the trend is the same.

Production in Lea County and Eddy County offset each other with Lea rising and Eddy dropping. See Permian section further down.

Production in North Dakota dropped by 1 kb/d in March to 1,121 kb/d, according to the EIA. March 2026 production is 51 kb/d lower than last March.

The North Dakota Department of Mineral resources reported March production increased by 9 kb/d to 1,143 kb/d, which is 22 kb/d higher than the EIA’s estimate.

According to this Article, U.S. oil operators in North Dakota are moving cautiously on ramping up drilling despite a sharp rise in oil prices.

“U.S. oil operators in North Dakota are moving cautiously on ramping up drilling despite a sharp rise in oil prices driven by the Iran war, as companies wait to see if higher prices will last long enough to justify new investment, the state’s regulator said on Friday.

While elevated prices have improved near-term fundamentals, most producers are sticking to budgets set at the end of last year, limiting any immediate jump in drilling activity, Mark Bohrer, assistant director of the Oil and Gas Division at the state’s Industrial Commission, said. However, output could edge higher in the near term as more wells are completed and some drilling activity picks up.

Harold Hamm, chief executive of Continental Resources, which helped pioneer fracking in North Dakota’s Bakken basin, plans to put drilling crews back to work after a temporary pause announced in January, local media reported. ConocoPhillips COP.N, EOG Resources EOG.N and Diamondback Energy FANG.O are also diverting resources to drill new wells or expand existing ones, mainly in the Permian basin, to take advantage of the price environment.”

Alaskaʼs March output rose by 1 kb/d to 417 kb/d while YoY production decreased by 17 kb/d. The EIA’s weekly report for March indicated that March production would average close to 420 kb/d.

Coloradoʼs March oil production rose by 10 kb/d to 464 kb/d.

The biggest oil producing county in Colorado is Weld County and its production has been added to the chart. The two graphs have almost been parallel over the last six months. Weld’s production rose by 6 kb/d in March to 383 kb/d.

Colorado began 2026 with 7 rigs in January and they rose to 8 rigs in late May. Of the 8 rigs, 6 were stationed in Weld county.

March oil production dropped by 1 kb/d from February to 394 kb/d.

Oklahoma’s January output dropped by 36 kb/d to 380 kb/d. Production remains below the post pandemic July 2020 high of 491 kb/d and is down by 59 kb/d since May 2023. The large drop out of the 400 kb/d ± 20 kb/d range may be due to the late January extreme weather.

Oklahoma had 51 operational rigs in May 2025 which slowly dropped to 41 rigs in July 2025. The rig count has been fairly steady around 41 from July 2025 to May 2026. The steady rig count since July 2025 may be showing up in the steady oil production around 400 kb/d.

California’s overall declining production trend continues. However March production rose by 2 kb/d to 247 kb/d. YoY production dropped by 20 kb/d.

Wyoming’s oil production reached a post pandemic high in June 2025 of 301 kb/d. Production dropped in each of the subsequent 5 months before rebounding in December. March production rose by 6 kb/d to 290 kb/d.

Wyoming started the year with 13 rigs and in May also had 13 operational rigs.

March production rose by 6 kb/d to 187 kb/d. Utah had 11 rigs operating in late January. In May, the number of operational rigs had dropped to 8.

Ohio’s March oil production increased by 1 kb/d to 132 kb/d and was 23 kb/d lower than the August peak of 155 kb/d. In January 2026 Ohio had 12 NG rigs operating. At the end of May, nine NG rigs were operational along with one oil rig.

GOM production dropped by 4 kb/d in March to 1,976 kb/d. It is up by 185 kb/d YoY.

The May 2026 STEO GOM projection has been added to this chart. For April production is projected to increase to 2,062 kb/d. If the projection is correct, April production will be a new high, exceeding the August 2,019 high by 18 kb/d. It also projects production in December 2027 will be 256 kb/d lower than April 2026 at 1,806 kb/d.

A Different Perspective on US Oil Production

Combined Oil output for the Big Two states Texas and New Mexico.

March production in the Big Two states decreased by a combined 26 kb/d to 8,085 kb/d. The decrease was all due to a production drop in Texas while New Mexico production was flat. Clearly these two states were the drivers of US oil production growth up to July 2025. The essentially flat production starting in August 2025 was the first sign that production in these two states was close to peaking. The next few months will determine whether these two states have reached peak production.

Oil Production by The Rest

March oil production by The Rest rose by 28 kb/d to 3,218 kb/d and is 268 kb/d lower than November 2023. The remaining states may have entered a slowly decline phase.

Permian Basin Report for Main Counties and a District

This special monthly Permian section was added to the US report because of a range of views on whether Permian production will continue to grow or will peak over the next year or two. The issue was brought into focus many months back by two Goehring and Rozencwajg Reports and Report2 which indicated that a few of the biggest Permian oil producing counties were close to peaking or past peak.

A more recent report was issued and can be reviewed Here. In this report they state:

“For years now, we have outlined with what we hoped was clarity, and what we now submit was prescience, the view that U.S. shale oil, that great source of modern supply, could not grow forever. It would mature, crest, and begin its long descent. That moment, by our models and measures, has arrived: shale has plateaued, and 2024 appears to be its high-water mark. And yet, investor sentiment has scarcely been more downbeat.”

This section will focus on the four largest oil producing counties in the Permian, Lea, Eddy, Midland and Martin. It will track the oil and natural gas production and the associated Gas Oil Ratio (GOR) on a monthly basis. The data is taken from the state’s government agencies for Texas and New Mexico. Typically the data for the latest two or three months is not complete and is revised upward as companies submit their updated information. Note the natural gas production shown in the charts that is used to calculate the GOR is the gas coming from both the gas and oil wells.

Of particular interest will be the charts which plot oil production vs GOR for a county to see if a particular characteristic develops that indicates the field is close to entering or in the bubble point phase. While the GOR metric is best suited for characterizing individual wells, counties with closely spaced horizontal wells may display a behaviour similar to individual wells due to pressure cross talking . For further information on the bubble point and GOR, there are a few good thoughts on the intricacies of the GOR in an earlier POB comment and here. Also check this EIA topic on GOR.

New Mexico Permian

The rig counts in both Lea and Eddy counties have started to decline over the last 8 weeks. Over the past five months Lea County dropped 24 rigs to 40 while Eddy dropped 4 rigs from 38 in April to 34 in May. Overall NM dropped 23 rigs to 74 from December 2025 to late May 2026. Will the dropping rig counts show up in dropping production in a few months?

Oil Production in New Mexico’s Primary Permian Counties

Lea County’s oil production started its plateau phase in April 2024 at 1,202 kb/d and it continued to October 2025. November 2025 to January 2026 have seen steady production drops in both the projected and NM OCD’s preliminary production. However the majority of January’s projected production drop of 65 kb/d was due to the severe January weather. February projected production rebounded and came in at 1,093 kb/d, revised down from 1,123 kb/d in the previous post.

March projected production increased by 37 kb/d to 1,130 kb/d. It now appears more likely that the projected production increase in February and March are related to the time shifted increasing rig count and to some storm related recovery. The question/issue here is whether production will exceed the October 2025 peak of 1,220 kb/d or peak at a new lower level?

Preliminary March data from New Mexico’s Oil Conservation Division (OCD) indicates Lea County’s March oil production rose by 28 kb/d to 1,114 kb/d, green graph.

The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs operating during a given month as taken from the weekly rig data. The rig graph has been shifted forward by 7 months. So the 64 Rigs/wk operating in August 2023 have been time shifted forward to March 2024 to show the possible correlation and time delay between rig count, completion and oil production.

Note that rig counts are being used to project production as opposed to completions because state completion data is not available. Completion data from the Drilling Productivity report below indicates that the number of completed DUCs slightly exceeds newly drilled wells in the Permian basin.

According to this Article, Devon Energy has recently acquired land in Lea and Eddy counties. The acquisition cost $2.6B or $161,500 per net acre and adds approximately 400 net locations normalized to 2-mile laterals, with expected strong well economics and low breakevens.

The cost for each of the 400 wells is $6.5M. Is this a good deal? According to this Article: “The price is “eye watering compared to historical M&A in the Permian,” ​RBC Capital Markets analyst Scott Hanold said in a note. The leases are mainly in three sections of ​the basin that have no existing development, and one is near Devon’s best-performing asset, Hanold said.

After much zigging and zagging, oil production in Lea county stabilized just below 1,100 kb/d in early 2023. Once production reached a new high in January 2023, production appeared to be on a plateau while the GOR started to increase rapidly to the right and first entered the bubble point phase in July 2023.

Since July 2023 Lea County’s production continued to increase as the GOR remained within a second semi-bounded region. This may indicate that additional production was coming from an oilier part of a layer since the GOR’s behaviour since August 2023 to March 2024 time frame appears once again to be in a second semi bounded GOR phase accompanied with rising production.

The GOR moved out of the second semi-bounded GOR region in April 2024 and production hit a new high of 1,221 kb/d in August 2024. From August 2024 to February 2025 the GOR was range bound between 3.34 and 3.53 but starting in June 2025 the GOR started to rise every month, except for one, to hit new highs. February and March saw a double change in direction, both a production increase and a GOR decrease to 3.94, which may be consistent with rising production.

This zigging and zagging GOR pattern within a semi-bounded GOR while oil production increases to some stable level and then moves out to a higher GOR to the right has shown up in a number of counties. See a few additional cases below. The rising GOR to new highs and dropping oil production in Lea county is an early indicator that production may be entering a declining phase.

Eddy’s March projected oil production decreased by 47 kb/d to 1,057 kb/d while preliminary production from the NM OCD decreased by 55 kb/d to 1,031 kb/d. Most of the February production rise was due to a rebound from the severe January weather. If the storm had not occurred, January production would have been closer to 1,100 kb/d.

March production along with upward revisions to previous months indicates that Eddy county may have peaked in December 2025. The dropping rig count starting in time shifted September 2025 may have finally shown up in falling production in March. November, December and February projected production formed a plateau. The March production drop by 47 kb/d to 1,079 kb/d may have ended the plateau.

The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs operating during a given month as taken from the above weekly drilling chart. The rig graph has been shifted forward by 8 months to roughly coincide with the increase in the production graph starting in October/November 2023.

The Eddy county GOR pattern is similar to Lea county except that Eddy broke out from the first semi bounded range earlier and then added a second wider semi-bounded GOR phase.

For March New Mexico’s Oil Conservation Division (OCD) reported preliminary oil production decreased by 55 kb/d to 1,031 kb/d while the GOR rose to 5.29 and moved back into the second Semi-Bounded GOR range.

Texas Permian

The rig count in Midland county has remained unchanged for the last seven weeks while Martin county reduced its rig count from 26 to 24 over the last few weeks in May.

Oil Production in the Two Primary Texas Permian Counties

Comparison Chart from previous post.

March projected production rose by 30 kb/d to 729 b/d. The February rise is due to the production rebound from the severe Texas winter storm in late January. With the rig count rising in time shifted February and March from the January low, the February and March increases may be directionally correct. However combining the sharp drop in the time shifted October 2025 to January 2026 rig count along with the dropping preliminary RRC March production along with the large February gap between the orange and green graphs makes me think that Midland’s March oil production is Overly Optimistic.

Compare the projected production for September 2025 in the preceding comparison chart with the current one. Production has increased by 31 kb/d from 666 kb/d to 697 kb/d. The increase is due to the atypical large upward revisions to the February production in the March RRC report. Hopefully April will clarify Midland’s production trend going forward.

The orange and green graphs show preliminary oil production for Midland County as reported by the Texas RRC for February and March, respectively. The red graph uses February and March data to project production as it would look after being updated over many months.

The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs operating during a given month as taken from the weekly drilling chart. The rig graph has been shifted forward by 6 months to better align with the latest production.

For March the Midland GOR ratio rose to a new high of 4.28 while the reported preliminary oil production dropped by 21 kb/d to 619 kb/d.

When the Midland county GOR initially moved into the bubble point phase, oil production and the GOR stayed within a narrow GOR range of 3.8 to 4.2 outside of the initial Semi-Bounded GOR region from March 2024 to November 2025. For March GOR rose to a new high of 4.28, which is an indicator of dropping production.

The oil production and GOR data shown in this chart are based on the RRC’s March preliminary production report.

Martin county’s projected March oil production dropped by 20 kb/d to 720 kb/d. Production has been essentially flat since August 2024 even though the rig count has been in a steady decline. Will the rising rig count starting in time shifted April affect production?

The red graph is a projection for oil production as it would look after being updated over many months. This projection is based on a methodology that uses preliminary February and March oil production data.

The orange and green graphs show production for Martin County as reported by the Texas RRC for February and March. The blue rig graph time shifts the rig count forward by 5 months.

Martin county’s oil production after November 2022 increased and at the same time drifted to slightly higher GORs within the semi bounded range. However the June 2024 GOR saw its first move out of the semi bounded region.

The RRC’s preliminary March 2026 production for Martin County shows a 25 kb/d decrease to 677 kb/d accompanied by an increase in the GOR to a record 3.24.

Martin county has the lowest semi-bounded GOR boundary of the four counties at a GOR of close to 2.50. The March GOR is now clearly out of the semi-bounded region. Martin County has now entered the bubble point phase that should result in a plateau phase that should shortly turn into a slowly dropping oil production phase.

This chart shows the total oil production from the four largest Permian counties. Assuming the total current Permian production is close to 6,600 kb/d, these four counties account for 55% of the total.

March projected production increased by 2 kb/d to 3,637 kb/d. Increases in Lea and Midland were offset by drops in Eddy and Martin. February and March production being flat and lower than October 2025 is an early indicator that the Permian is in either a plateau phase or in its initial declining phase.

The February and March initial production data are shown in the orange and green graphs respectively. The red graph uses the February and March production data to project a final updated production for March.

Findings

– March projected production increases for the Texas counties are possibly a bit optimistic. The optimistic projections are mainly due to atypically large updates to February production in the updated March production data. Need to wait for April production to clarify February/March production and the trend going forward.

– Lea county entered its plateau phase in May 2024. While oil production is not following the rig count graph directly, the dropping rig count has resulted in Lea County production being in a steady flat plateau phase up to October 2025. However the November to January production drops may indicate Lea County has entered a declining phase. February and March production has risen and is currently tracking the time shifted rig count. It is not clear whether the current rising production could enter a lower level plateau phase in 2026 as the time shifted post January rig count begins to increase.

– July to December production in Eddy County saw a steady increase to 1,109 kb/d. February projected production fell to 1,104 kb/d and March dropped further. The March production drop along with upward revisions to previous months indicates that Eddy county may have peaked in December 2025. The dropping rig count starting in September 2025 may have finally shown up in falling production in March.

– Midland’s March oil production is overly optimistic due to atypical upward revisions to February production in the March report. Midland county may actually be in its declining phase.

– Martin’s projected production has been essentially flat since August 2024. Martin’s March projected production decrease indicates that its oil production is still in its plateau phase of approximately 725 kb/d and may be close to entering its declining phase.

Texas District 8

District’s 8 projected production rose by 57 Kb/d in March. This is an overly optimistic projection that is being affected by a number of atypical upward revisions to many counties in District 8.

Plotting an oil production vs GOR graph for a district may be a bit of a stretch. Regardless here it is and it seems to indicate many District 8 counties may well be into the bubble point phase. The March GOR increased to 4.59, a new high, as preliminary production continued to drop.

Oil Production and GOR Charts for Four of the Next Larger Texas Oil Counties

Reeves County GOR is high because it is the number one Texas county ranked by gas production. The current C + C production is almost evenly split between crude and condensate, with condensate about 17% higher than crude.

Reeves County GOR first moved out of the Semi-Bounded region in June 2025 and in March 2026 fell to 7.03 while initial production dropped to a new low of 408 kb/d. Reeves county is in its declining phase.

The rig count is time shifted forward by 7 months.

In real June 2025, 29 rigs were operational in Reeves county. By late May 2026 the rig count had risen to 16 from a February low of 10. Regardless of the current increase, 29 rigs to 17 rigs is a large drop in 11 months. The large drop shows up starting in time shifted Febuary 2026

Loving’s projected production dropped by 14 kb/d to 496 kb/d in March. For March, the GOR increased to 4.21, a new high, while preliminary production dropped to 419 kb/d. Loving’s February and March projected production is a bit optimistic due to overly upwardly revised February oil production. It will be interesting to see if production continues to fall in April as it follows the dropping rig count.

Loving’s rig graph is time shifted forward by 5 months.

Loving had 17 operational rigs in late May 2026.

Upton’s projected March production rose by 9 kb/d to 344 kb/d.

For the next few months Upton County may see a production decrease associated with the dropping rig count which started in time shifted March 2026. The March increase is due to the large revision in the February production, the large gap between the orange and green graphs in February, and is a bit optimistic.

Upton’s GOR continues to stay within the Semi-Bounded region but rose to 4.22 in March.

Upton’s rig chart has been time shifted forward by five months. Upton began 2026 with 7.6 rigs, time shifted to May 2026. In real May 2026, the rig count had risen to 14.

Howard County oil production peaked in July 2023 and has been in a slow decline ever since.

March’s projected production rose by 12 kb/d to 283 kb/d. This may be an optimistic projection due to the atypical upward revisions to February production.

Note the rig count in time shifted June 2026 is 0.25, i.e. 1 rig for one week in real January 2026. The rig graph is time shifted forward by 5 months. In real April 2026, Howard added one rig for a total of one operational rig.

For March the GOR rose to a new high of 5.67 as the initial production dropped to 200 kb/d.

Drilling Productivity Report

The Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the principal tight oil regions. The new DPR report in the STEO provides production up to March 2026. The report also projects output to December 2027 for a number of basins. The DUC charts and Drilled Wells charts are also updated to April 2026.

The DPR has made been significant upward changes to the oil production forecasts for the three tight oil basins, Permian, Eagle Ford and Bakken reported here. It is not clear if the increases are related to the sudden rise in the WTI oil price from $65/barrel in February 2026 to over $100/b in March 2026. While production starts to rise in October 2026 all the way to December 2027, the price of WTI slowly drops back to $64/b in December 2027.

The forecast seems be model driven whereby increases in the oil price brings on new drilling and the associated increase in oil production. Also interestingly there appears to be the typical six to seven month delay from February 2026 before production begins to rise. The only flaw in this possibility is that oil prices fall steadily from March 2026 to December 2027. Also there has been no reported significant increase in drilling rigs in March and April 2026.

For the Permian, production was expected to increase in October 2026 because there was an expectation that new gas pipelines were being built that would permit more high GOR oil wells to be drilled. However the projected increase has been increased further.

So at this time, it is not clear if the sudden production increase starting in the September/October time frame is simply a partially driven model forecast or related to pure Hopium.

The EIA’s May STEO/DPR report shows Permian April output dropped by 36 kb/d to 6,621 kb/d. May production is expected to increase by 5 kb/d to 6,626 kb/d. From April 2026 to December 2027 output is expected to increase by 569 kb/d to 7,190 kb/d. December 2027 production has been revised up by 69 kb/d from the previous report.

Note that production begins to rise steadily from September 2026 to December 2027. According to the EIA, this is due to higher prices for WTI and more NG pipelines being built. The gas pipelines are needed to capture the associated flared gas coming from new oil wells.

Production from new wells and legacy decline, right scale, have been added to this chart to show the difference between new production and legacy decline.

These numbers reflect a one year production trend and provide the production contribution from new wells over a rolling 12-month period to determine if the rate of new production is increasing or decreasing compared to previous periods. The averaging process approximately adds a six month delay.

April output in the Eagle Ford basin decreased by 2 kb/d to 1,187 kb/d. May 2026 production is forecast to drop by 1 kb/d to 1,186 kb/d.

Output in December 2027 is expected to be 1,250 kb/d, revised up by 9 kb/d from the previous report.

The DPR/STEO reported the Bakken’s April output dropped by 3 kb/d to 1,197 kb/d. May 2026 production is expected to decrease by 2 kb/d to 1,195 kb/d. The STEO/DPR projection, red markers, shows output rising to 1,236 kb/d in December 2027.

This chart plots the combined production from the three main LTO regions. April output decreased by 41 kb/d to 9,005 kb/d. May is expected to add 2 kb/d to 9,007 kb/d. Production for December 2027 is forecast to be 9,676 kb/d.

DUCs and Drilled Wells

The number of DUCs available for completion in the Permian and the three major DPR regions continues its dropping trend. The April DUC count for the three basins dropped by 21 to 1,400. In the Permian the DUC count dropped by 13 to 787.

In the three primary regions, a total of 633 wells were completed in April, 8 more than in March. There were 610 wells drilled in April 2026, up 2 from March 2026.

In the Permian, 458 wells were completed in April and 444 were drilled.