The EIA Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published recently. A summary in chart form.
The EIA expects disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be reduced by 5547 kb/d from June 2026 to 4Q2026. Probably this is an optimistic assumption by the EIA.
OECD commerical oil stocks are expected to rebound in 2027, but stocks will remain below the avergae level from 2022 to 2025.
Consumption of liquid petroleum rebounds strongly in 2027 after a fall in 2026 due to higher oil prices in the June 2026 STEO.
Wholesale fuel prices are expected to be much higher than forecast in the February 2026 STEO, about $1.50/gallon higher for gasoline at the peak and about $2/gallon higher for jet and diesel fuel.
Net exports of crude and petroleum products are forecast to be higher, much of this is from the US SPR.
US natural gas output increases by about 6 BCF/d from 2025 to 2027 in this forecast with about half being consumed in the US and the rest being exported.
The STEO forecast for natural gas production has increased compared to the January 2026 STEO and this results in lower natural gas prices in the June STEO compared to January.
The EIA expects a stock build in 2027, we will see, again seems optimistic.
The scenario above uses the US tight oil scenario from previous chart. URR=2900 Gb for World C+C, peak is 2027 at 84.7 million barrels per day.
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