Month: January 2020

US Production Growth Surges

Ovi 180 Comments

A Post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel

All of the oil production data for the US states comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply Monthly. In addition, information from other EIA offices is provided to project future US output. At the end, an analysis of a few different EIA reports is undertaken.

The charts below are updated to November 2019 for the 10 largest US oil producing states (>100 kb/d).

The latest data from the January EIA report shows that US production surged by 203 kb/d in November to reach a new high of 12,879 kb/d. Since June the US has increased output by an average of 164 kb/d/mth. Looking forward to December production, the January Monthly Energy Review (MER) estimates US production for December to be 12,861 kb/d, down 14 kb/d from November and shown in red as the last data point.

If the MER is correct for December at 12,861 kb/d, that means that the January 2020 STEO is too high in their output prediction. They estimate December output to be 12,967 kb/d, 106 kb/d too high.

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Non-OPEC Production Growth is Struggling

Ovi 155 Comments

A Post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel.

Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to September 2019. Information from other sources such as the IEA and OPEC is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction.

Non-OPEC production decreased by 22 kb/d from 50,512 kb/d in August to 50,490 kb/d in September. This is another output reduction month in 2019. In 2019 there have been 5 months of decline and 4 months of increases. For comparison purposes, in 2018, there were 9 monthly increases and 3 decreases. This is just another indicator of the increasing difficulty Non-OPEC countries will have boosting output going forward, now that US production growth has started to slow.

September production is just 287 kb/d short of the previous high of 50,777 kb/d reached in December 2018. Will new output from Norway and Brazil, along with small but increasing US output coming in the next few months raise Non-OPEC output beyond the previous December 2018 high?

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