By Ovi
The focus of this post is an overview of World oil production along with a more detailed review of the top 11 Non-OPEC oil producing countries. OPEC production is covered in a separate post.
Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for the oil producing countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to January 2026. This is the latest and most detailed/complete World oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, IEA, STEO and country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway, Mexico, Argentina and China is reported to provide an extra one or two month production preview beyond the EIA.
The EIA’s April/May STEO reports have made significant and major revisions to the projected World oil production due to the US/Iranian war. Also US projected production has been revised upward. See US chart at the end.
The World’s January oil production decreased by 1,411 kb/d to 84,533 kb/d.
This chart has been updated using the May 2026 STEO to project World C + C production out to December 2027. It uses the STEO report along with the International Energy Statistics to make the projection. Production in February 2026 is projected to increase by 2,124 kb/d to 86,657 kb/d. March/April production drops by more than 10,000 kb/d due to the Iran/US war. May production is forecast to be the bottom and is projected to be 73,887 kb/d.
The 12 month Centred Moving Average shown at July 2027 is 86,379 kb/d vs the September 2018 12 month CMA of 82,942 kb/d.
For December 2027, production is projected to be 87,800 kb/d, a new projected high and an upward revision of 547 kb/d from the previous report. The increase comes from a combination of Non-OPEC countries and the US.
January’s World oil output W/O the US decreased by 991 kb/d to 71,296 kb/d. February’s production is expected to increase by 1,736 kb/d to 73,032 kb/d
The projection is forecasting that December 2027 World W/O US oil production will be 73,518 kb/d. This is only 486 kb/d higher than the expected February production of 73,032 kb/d. Very little growth is expected from the Non-US World oil producing countries.
A Different Perspective on World Oil Production
January’s Big 3 oil production decreased by 360 kb/d to 33,383 kb/d. US production, a contributor to the decrease, dropped by 410 kb/d in January due to a late winter storm.
Production in the remaining countries has been slowly increasing since the September 2020 low of 42,765 kb/d but dropped sharply in January. January 2026 production dropped by 1,051 kb/d to 51,150 kb/d. There were big drops in the US and Kazakhstan.
Countries Expected to Grow Oil Production.
This chart shows the combined oil production from five Non-OPEC countries, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and the U.S., whose oil production is expected to grow. These five countries are often cited by OPEC and the IEA for being capable of meeting the increasing World oil demand for next few years. For these five countries, production from April 2020 to July 2025 rose at an average rate of 1,130 kb/d/year as shown by the orange OLS line.
To show the impact of US growth over the past 5 years, U.S. production was removed from the five countries and that graph is shown in red. The production growth slope for the remaining four countries has been reduced by 614 kb/d/yr to 516 kb/d/yr.
January production has been added to the five growers chart and it dropped by 630 kb/d to 24,027 kb/d. January’s production decrease was primarily due to the large US drop. For the Five growers W/O U.S., January production dropped by 220 kb/d to 10,781 kb/d.
February’s production for the five countries is expected to reverse the January drop by increasing close to 600 kb/d.
Note: The OLS lines are updated to July 2025.
World Oil Countries Ranked by Production
Above are listed the World’s 13th largest oil producing countries. In January 2026 these 13 countries produced 79.2% of the World’s oil. On a MoM basis, production decreased by 923 kb/d in these 13 countries while on a YOY basis production rose by 2,160 kb/d. Note the large YoY increases from Saudi Arabia, Brazil and the UAE.
Non-OPEC Oil Countries Ranked by Production
Listed above are the World’s 11 largest Non-OPEC producers. The original criteria for inclusion in the table was that all of the countries produced more than 1,000 kb/d.
January’s MoM production decreased by 1,067 kb/d to 44,979 kb/d for these eleven Non-OPEC countries while as a whole the Non-OPEC countries saw a yearly production increase of 742 kb/d to 53,948 kb/d. Major yearly gain came from Brazil but was offset by the drop in Kazakhstan.
In January 2026, these 11 countries produced 83.5% of all Non-OPEC oil.
Non-OPEC Country’s Oil Production Charts
The EIA reported Angola’s January oil production dropped by 51 kb/d to 954 kb/d.
According to Angola’s National Agency for Petroleum, production in February and March rose to 1,021 kb/d, red markers.
The EIA reported that Brazil’s January production dropped by 62 kb/d to 3,963 kb/d. According to this Article, the pre-salt reservoirs remained the backbone of national production, accounting for nearly 80 per cent of total oil and gas output.
Brazil’s National Petroleum Association (BNPA) reported that production rose both in February and March and rose to a new high in March to 4,245 kb/d.
Pre-Salt production was a major contributor to the February and March production rebound.
According to the May OPEC MOMR: “In 2026, Brazil’s liquids production, including biofuels, is forecast to rise by about 270 tb/d, y-o-y, to average 4.7 mb/d. Upstream liquids production is set to surge through production ramp-ups at the Buzios (Franco), Mero (Libra NW), Marlim, Bacalhau (x-Carcara) and Wahoo projects. Additional oil project start-ups are expected at the Buzios field, as well as from the Albacora Leste Cluster.
Canada’s oil production decreased by 171 kb/d in January to 5,059 kb/d.
Canada’s January production was down due to unexpected downtime at a few oil sands companies.
According to this Article, President Trump signed an executive order to build a smaller version of the Keystone XL pipeline.
“U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday signed an order granting a cross-border permit to a project that would revive parts of the Keystone XL pipeline to transport Canadian oil from the U.S.-Canada border to Guernsey, Wyoming.
The pipeline, proposed by Canadian pipeline company South Bow (SOBO.TO) and its U.S. partner Bridger Pipeline, could increase Canada’s crude exports to the U.S.by more than 12% if it goes ahead. A presidential permit was required for the project to proceed.
The new proposal involves a different route through the U.S. than the previous Keystone XL project, which was canceled by former President Joe Biden in 2021 after years of Indigenous and environmental opposition.
The EIA reported China’s January oil output rose by 230 kb/d to 4,420 kb/d. On a YoY basis, China’s January production rose by 80 kb/d. For March, China reported average production of 4,490 kb/d, red markers.
For the last two years, March has proven to be a record production month. Again this year March showed a large gain but it did not exceed the March 2025 peak of 4,500 kb/d. Does this hint at an upcoming peak in China oil production?
According to the EIA, Mexico’s January output dropped by 5 kb/d to 1,745 kb/d.
In June 2024, Pemex issued a new and modified oil production report for Heavy, Light and Extra Light oil. It is shown in blue in the chart and it appears that Mexico is not reporting condensate production when compared to the EIA report.
In earlier EIA reports, they would add close to 55 kb/d of condensate to the Pemex’s “Total Liquids” report. More recently the EIA has been adding 90 kb/d of condensate to Mexican production. For February and March production, 90 kb/d have been added to the Pemex report. March production is estimated to be close to 1,745 kb/d. Note that Mexico’s production, as reported by Pemex for the last eight months has stabilized around 1,650 kb/d.
According to the EIA, Kazakhstan’s January oil output decreased by 581 kb/d to 1,280 kb/d. According to this Article, the large drop was due to a fire in the Tengiz oil field power generating plant.
“The Chevron-operated Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan has suspended oil production and exports a day after fires were reported at the field’s power generation and supply facility.
Oil production from Kazakhstan’s three largest fields, including Tengiz, was hampered in December and again this month due to operational issues affecting the country’s key export pipeline, operated by Caspian Pipeline Consortium.“
Since Argus no longer reports OPEC + crude production, production data for Kazakhstan will now be taken from the monthly IEA reports. March production rebounded by 450 kb/d to 1,880 kb/d even though this Report stated that Kazakhstan was supposed to reduce production in March. The May IEA OMR reported that crude production in April dropped by 20 kb/d to 1,860 kb.
The C + C production for April, red marker, was taken from this Report.
“Kazakhstan, which accounts for more than 2% of global oil output, boosted oil and gas condensate production by 16% in April from March as output ramped up at major fields, a source familiar with the data said on Monday.
Total production rose to 2.17 million barrels per day in April from 1.87 million bpd in March, the source said.
The increase was driven mainly by higher output at Tengiz, the country’s largest oilfield, where the source said production jumped 39% to 973,000 bpd.“
The EIA reported Norway’s January production rose by 11 kb/d to 1,994 kb/d.
Separately, the Norway Petroleum Directorship also projected that oil production from February to May will drop every month. For May it is projecting production of 1,724 kb/d. The red markers are the NPD’s production forecast.
According to OPEC’s May MOMR: “Norwegian liquids production is forecast to rise by about 10 tb/d to average 2.0 mb/d in 2026. This has been revised upward due to higher-than-expected output in recent months.
According to the EIA, January output dropped by 2 kb/d to 1,024 kb/d. Oman’s production appears to have started a budding growth phase. Previous production peaked in October 2022.
Qatar has restarted providing the EIA with monthly updated oil production.
Qatar’s January output dropped by 26 kb/d to 1,275 kb/d.
The EIA reported Russia’s January C + C production was unchanged at 10,027 kb/d and was up by 222 kb/d from January 2025.
The above chart also shows Russian production as reported by the IEA. It is difficult to assess the accuracy of the IEA report since over the last few months the IEA’s Russian production had been around 100 kb/d to 150 kb/d higher than Argus’ Media. The best that can be done at this time will be to compare the production trends between the EIA and the IEA. I think that Russian oil production continues to be a major state secret at this time because of the damage being caused by the heavy bombing to its related crude oil processing facilities.
According to the IEA’s February report, December’s crude production rose by 640 kb/d to 9,640 kb/d. The IEA’s March OMR reported that Russian crude production hit a new February low of 8,670 kb/d and rebounded to 8,960 kb/d in March. This is the first clear indication that Russian production is being affected by the Russia/Ukraine war. The May OMR report states that Russian April crude production was 8,830 kb/d, down by 130 kb/d.
The OPEC May MOMR is reporting Russian Crude production in March and April was 9,164 kb/d and 9,057 kb/d, respectively. For April, OPEC’s Russian crude production is 227 kb/d higher than the IEA’s report.
This US production chart showing output up to January 2026 is the same as the one published last week in the US update. However the projected portion of the two production graphs, light and dark blue, have been updated according to the May 2026 STEO.
For US projected production, December 2027 has increased from 14,157 kb/d in the March STEO to 14,282 kb/d in the May STEO, an increase of 125 kb/d. For Onshore L48 production, December 2027 production has risen from 11,892 kb/d in the March STEO to 11,961 kb/d in the May STEO. The rising production comes primarily from the Permian basin.
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