By Ovi
All of the Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM which provides updated production information up to February 2025.
U.S. February oil production increased by 389 kb/d to 13,626 kb/d and is down by 238 kb/d from October. The largest increases came from the Big 2 states, TX and NM. March production is expected to drop by 67 kb/d to 13,559 kb/d according to the April STEO. Peak US oil production occurred in October 2025 at 13,864 kb/d but may be exceeded in early 2027, according to the STEO forecast.
The dark blue graph, taken from the April 2026 STEO, is the U.S. oil production forecast from March 2026 to December 2027. Output for December 2027 is expected to rise to 14,157 kb/d. From February 2026 to December 2027 U.S. oil production is expected to increase by 531 kb/d.
The light blue graph is the STEO’s forecast for the Onshore L48 output to December 2027. February Onshore L48 production increased by 480 kb/d but then dropped in March to 11,076 kb/d according to the April STEO. From February 2026 to December 2027 production is expected to increase by 613 kb/d to 11,892 kb/d. The rising production starting in September 2026, according to the EIA, is due to expected higher prices for WTI and more NG pipelines being built. Note how production is essentially flat out to October 2026.
U.S. Oil Production Ranked by State
Listed above are the 10 US states with the largest oil production along with production from the Gulf of Mexico.
These 10 states accounted for 83.1% of all U.S. oil production out of a total production of 13,626 kb/d in February 2026. On a MoM basis, February oil production in these 10 states rose by 454 kb/d. On a YoY basis, US overall production increased by 386 kb/d with the largest contributors being Texas and New Mexico and the largest decliner being North Dakota.
State Oil Production Charts
Texas February oil production increased by 246 kb/d to 5,806 kb/d according to the EIA.
The Texas’ RRC initial production for February dropped by 122 kb/d from January to 5,011 kb/d. The projection added 918 kb/d to raise February’s projected production to 5,804 kb/d. While the projection differs from the EIA estimate by just 2 kb/d, I think this is a fluke and is related to the large January production drop and February rise.
The red graph is a production projection using the January and February Texas RRC data.
The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs reported for each month shifted forward by 10 months. So the 276 rigs operating in July 2023 have been shifted forward to May 2024. From February 2024 to July 2024, the rig count dropped from 312 in time shifted February 2024 to 256 in July 2024. That drop of 56 rigs had little impact on production up to July 2025. August 2025 appears to be the first month when the impact of the start of a flat rig count is resulting in essentially flat production. Will the rig count drop starting in time shifted February/March 2026 result in dropping Texas production going forward?
According to the EIA, New Mexico’s February production rose by 190 kb/d to 2,308 kb/d. YoY production rose by 152 kb/d, the largest contributor to overall rising YoY US production.
The red graph shows the projected output up to February and is calculated using the preliminary January and February NM OCD data. February’s projected production increased by 176 kb/d from January to 2,266 kb/d and is 42 kb/d or 1.8% lower than the EIA’s reported February production. While the numbers are slightly different, the trend is the same.
The largest contributors to the 190 kb/d NM increase came from Lea and Eddy Counties which rose for a combined 184 kb/d. See Permian section further down.
Production in North Dakota dropped by 11 kb/d in February to 1,101 kb/d, according to the EIA.
The North Dakota Department of Mineral resources reported February production increased by 4 kb/d to 1,130 kb/d, which is 29 kb/d higher than the EIA’s estimate.
According to this Article, North Dakota operators are getting an unexpected premium for their oil in April.
“North Dakota oil shipped on the Dakota Access Pipeline is fetching nearly $7 more per barrel than a U.S. benchmark price amid volatility caused by the Iran war.
State regulators aren’t sure why prices for North Dakota oil at its destination in Illinois are higher than traditional benchmark prices. One possibility is the light, sweet crude can be more easily refined into products like jet fuel and diesel that are experiencing demand surges in Europe and elsewhere.
How much of that higher price benefits North Dakota will be more clear in the coming months, said Justin Kringstad, director of the North Dakota Pipeline Authority.
“Royalty owners, the producers, the state, all share that uplift,” Kringstad said.
Alaskaʼs February output dropped by 12 kb/d to 416 kb/d while YoY production decreased by 22 kb/d. The EIA’s weekly reports indicated that February production would average close to 431 kb/d.
Coloradoʼs February oil production rose by 11 kb/d to 455 kb/d.
The biggest oil producing county in Colorado is Weld County and its production has been added to the chart. The two graphs have almost been parallel over the last six months. Weld’s production rose by 11 kb/d in February to 377 kb/d.
Colorado began 2026 with 7 rigs in January and they rose to 9 rigs in April. Of the 9 rigs, 7 were stationed in Weld county.
February oil production rebounded by 16 kb/d from January to 392 kb/d.
Oklahoma’s January output dropped by 38 kb/d to 376 kb/d. Production remains below the post pandemic July 2020 high of 491 kb/d and is down by 79 kb/d since May 2023. The large drop out of the 400 kb/d ± 20 kb/d range may be due to the late January extreme weather.
Oklahoma had 51 operational rigs in May 2025 which slowly dropped to 41 rigs in July 2025. The rig count has been fairly steady around 40 from July 2025 to April 2026. The steady rig count since July 2025 may be showing up in the steady oil production around 400 kb/d.
California’s overall declining production trend continues. February’s production was unchanged at 245 kb/d. YoY production dropped by 19 kb/d.
Wyoming’s oil production reached a post pandemic high in December 2024 and again in June 2025 of 301 kb/d. Production dropped in each of the subsequent 5 months before rebounding in December. February’s production rose by 7 kb/d to 284 kb/d.
Wyoming started the year with 13 rigs and in April had 14 operational rigs.
February’s production rose by 1 kb/d to 181 kb/d. Utah had 11 rigs operating in late January. By early May, the number of operational rigs had dropped to 8.
Ohio’s February oil production increased by 6 kb/d to 135 kb/d and was 20 kb/d lower than the August peak of 155 kb/d. In January 2026 Ohio had 12 NG rigs operating. At the end of April, nine NG rigs were operational along with one oil rig.
GOM production dropped by 79 kb/d in February to 1,931 kb/d.
The April 2026 STEO GOM projection has been added to this chart. For March production is projected to increase to 2,063 kb/d. If the projection is correct, March’s production will be a new high, exceeding the August 2,019 high by 19 kb/d. It also projects production in December 2027 will be 319 kb/d lower than March 2026 at 1,744 kb/d.
A Different Perspective on US Oil Production
Combined oil output for the Big Two states Texas and New Mexico.
February production in the Big Two states increased by a combined 436 kb/d to 8,114 kb/d. The increase was due to a rebound in production from the late January storm. Clearly these two states were the drivers of US oil production growth up to July 2025. The essentially flat production starting in August 2025 was the first sign that production in these two states was close to peaking. The next few months will tell the tale.
Oil Production by The Rest
February oil production by The Rest rose by 44 kb/d to 3,165 kb/d and is 321 kb/d lower than November 2023.
Permian Basin Report for Main Counties and a District
This special monthly Permian section was added to the US report because of a range of views on whether Permian production will continue to grow or will peak over the next year or two. The issue was brought into focus many months back by two Goehring and Rozencwajg Reports and Report2 which indicated that a few of the biggest Permian oil producing counties were close to peaking or past peak.
A more recent report was issued and can be reviewed Here. In this report they state:
“For years now, we have outlined with what we hoped was clarity, and what we now submit was prescience, the view that U.S. shale oil, that great source of modern supply, could not grow forever. It would mature, crest, and begin its long descent. That moment, by our models and measures, has arrived: shale has plateaued, and 2024 appears to be its high-water mark. And yet, investor sentiment has scarcely been more downbeat.”
This section will focus on the four largest oil producing counties in the Permian, Lea, Eddy, Midland and Martin. It will track the oil and natural gas production and the associated Gas Oil Ratio (GOR) on a monthly basis. The data is taken from the state’s government agencies for Texas and New Mexico. Typically the data for the latest two or three months is not complete and is revised upward as companies submit their updated information. Note the natural gas production shown in the charts that is used to calculate the GOR is the gas coming from both the gas and oil wells.
Of particular interest will be the charts which plot oil production vs GOR for a county to see if a particular characteristic develops that indicates the field is close to entering or in the bubble point phase. While the GOR metric is best suited for characterizing individual wells, counties with closely spaced horizontal wells may display a behaviour similar to individual wells due to pressure cross talking . For further information on the bubble point and GOR, there are a few good thoughts on the intricacies of the GOR in an earlier POB comment and here. Also check this EIA topic on GOR.
New Mexico Permian
The rig counts in Lea and Eddy counties were moving in different directions up to March 2026 but have both started to decline over the last four weeks. Over the past five months Lea County dropped 14 rigs to 50 while Eddy dropped 5 rigs from 37 to 32 in April. Overall NM dropped 11 rigs to 82 from December 2025 to early May 2026.
Oil Production in New Mexico’s Primary Permian Counties
Lea County’s oil production started its plateau phase in April 2024 at 1,202 kb/d and it continued to October 2025. November 2025 to January 2026 have seen steady production drops in both the projected and NM OCD’s preliminary production. However the majority of January’s projected production drop of 69 kb/d was due to the severe January weather. February projected production rebounded and came in at 1,123 kb/d, an increase of 76 kb/d from January. This could be related to the time shifted increasing rig count and to some storm related recovery . The question/issue here is whether production will exceed the October peak of 1,224 kb/d or peak at a new lower level?
Preliminary February data from New Mexico’s Oil Conservation Division (OCD) indicates Lea County’s oil production rose by 48 kb/d to 1,077 kb/d, green graph.
The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs operating during a given month as taken from the weekly rig data. The rig graph has been shifted forward by 7 months. So the 64 Rigs/wk operating in August 2023 have been time shifted forward to March 2024 to show the possible correlation and time delay between rig count, completion and oil production.
Note that rig counts are being used to project production as opposed to completions because state completion data is not available. Completion data from the Drilling Productivity report below indicates that the number of completed DUCs exceeds newly drilled wells in the Permian basin.
After much zigging and zagging, oil production in Lea county stabilized just below 1,100 kb/d in early 2023. Once production reached a new high in January 2023, production appeared to be on a plateau while the GOR started to increase rapidly to the right and first entered the bubble point phase in July 2023.
Since July 2023 Lea County’s production continued to increase as the GOR remained within a second semi-bounded region. This may indicate that additional production was coming from an oilier part of a layer since the GOR’s behaviour since August 2023 to March 2024 time frame appears once again to be in a second semi bounded GOR phase accompanied with rising production.
The GOR moved out of the second semi-bounded GOR region in April 2024 and production hit a new high of 1,221 kb/d in August 2024. From August 2024 to February 2025 the GOR was range bound between 3.34 and 3.53 but starting in June 2025 the GOR started to rise every month, except for one, to hit new highs. February saw a double change in direction, both a production increase to 1,077 kb/d and a GOR decrease to 4.07.
This zigging and zagging GOR pattern within a semi-bounded GOR while oil production increases to some stable level and then moves out to a higher GOR to the right has shown up in a number of counties. See a few additional cases below. The rising GOR to new highs and dropping oil production in Lea county is an early indicator that production may be entering a declining phase.
Eddy’s February projected oil production increased by 108 kb/d to 1,115 kb/d, a new high, while preliminary production from the NM OCD increased by 77 kb/d to 1,078 kb/d. Most of the production rise was due to a rebound from the severe January weather. Eddy’s month over month production updates are typically very few and small and primarily occur in the last two or three months which indicates that the monthly updates are close to being final, say 95% of final.
It is difficult to discern what really happened in Eddy county in January and February. It is not clear if the large January drop is a real production drop associated with the late January severe storm along with a bit of delayed reporting. The January drop seems to be too high for a two to three day weather related incident. Throw in some late/unreported January production into February which then shows up as February production and a new February production high appears. Need to wait for March production to clarify January/February production.
The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs operating during a given month as taken from the above weekly drilling chart. The rig graph has been shifted forward by 8 months to roughly coincide with the increase in the production graph starting in October/November 2023.
The Eddy county GOR pattern is similar to Lea county except that Eddy broke out from the first semi bounded range earlier and then added a second wider semi-bounded GOR phase.
For February New Mexico’s Oil Conservation Division (OCD) reported preliminary oil production increased by 77 kb/d to 1,077 kb/d while the GOR fell back to 5.06 and moved back into the first Semi-Bounded GOR range
Texas Permian
The rig counts in both Midland and Martin counties have not changed in the last 4 weeks after both counties added 3 rigs in early April. Not clear if the rigs were added due to higher oil prices.
Oil Production in the Two Primary Texas Permian Counties
February’s projected production rose by 18 kb/d to 636 b/d. Part of this rise is due to the production rebound from the severe Texas winter storm in late January. With the rig count dropping in time shifted December and March, the February increase may be temporary.
This current chart shows production peaking in November 2024 at 683 kb/d. Also the production projection and Texas data are very close up to September 2025. Combining the dropping production with the sharp drop in the time shifted November 2025 rig count makes me think that Midland’s oil production has entered its declining phase.
The orange and green graphs show preliminary oil production for Midland County as reported by the Texas RRC for January and February, respectively. The red graph uses January and February data to project production as it would look after being updated over many months.
The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs operating during a given month as taken from the weekly drilling chart. The rig graph has been shifted forward by 8 months to better align with the latest production.
For February the Midland GOR ratio rose slightly to 4.14 while the reported preliminary oil production dropped by 21 kb/d to 588 kb/d.
When the Midland county GOR initially moved into the bubble point phase, oil production and the GOR stayed within a narrow GOR range of 3.8 to 4.2 outside of the initial Semi-Bounded GOR region from March 2024 to October 2025. For January and February the GOR has dropped back into the narrow range.
The overall rising GOR along with a dropping preliminary production is another indicator that Midland County may have passed peak production.
The oil production and GOR data shown in this chart are based on the RRC’s February preliminary production report.
Martin county’s projected February oil production rose by 42 kb/d to a new high of 771 kb/d. It is surprising to see the new high because new wells were not brought on in late January due to the severe winter storm. Dropping rig counts and rising production, if true, must indicate new wells are very productive and have high IPs.
The red graph is a projection for oil production as it would look after being updated over many months. This projection is based on a methodology that uses preliminary January and February oil production data.
The orange and green graphs show production for Martin County as reported by the Texas RRC for January and February. The blue rig graph time shifts the rig count forward by 6 months.
Martin county’s oil production after November 2022 increased and at the same time drifted to slightly higher GORs within the semi bounded range. However the June 2024 GOR saw its first move out of the semi bounded region.
The RRC’s preliminary February 2026 production for Martin County shows a 26 kb/d increase to 697 kb/d accompanied by an increase in the GOR to 3.04.
Martin county has the lowest semi-bounded GOR boundary of the four counties at a GOR of close to 2.50. The February GOR is now clearly out of the semi-bounded region. Martin County has now entered the bubble point phase that should result in a plateau phase that should shortly turn into a slowly dropping oil production phase.
This chart shows the total oil production from the four largest Permian counties. Assuming current Permian production is close to 6,600 kb/d, these four counties account for 55% of the total.
February’s projected production increased by 233 kb/d to 3,644 kb/d and is a significant rebound from the late January winter storm. Of the 233 kb/d increase, the largest increments came from Lea and Eddy counties, 76 kb/d and 108 kb/d respectively.
The January and February initial production data are shown in the orange and green graphs respectively. The red graph uses the January and February production data to project a final updated production for February.
Findings
– February projected production increases are possibly a bit optimistic. The optimistic projections are mainly due to the late January severe winter storm and how the January under production affects the projection methodology for February. Need to wait for March production to clarify January/February production and the trend going forward.
– Lea county entered its plateau phase in May 2024. While oil production is not following the rig count graph directly, the dropping rig count has resulted in Lea County production being in a steady flat plateau phase up to October 2025. However November to January had production drops which indicate Lea County has entered a declining phase. That declining phase could enter a lower level plateau phase in 2026 as the time shifted post February rig count begins to increase.
– July to November production in Eddy County saw a steady increase to 1,092 kb/d. While December’s projected production increased, it was very small, 2 kb/d, and may be indicating the beginning of a peaking/declining phase. The size of the production drop in January production and the rise in February may not be realistic because they are both affected by January’s under production. The full effect of January’s severe weather on January and February production will not be known until March’s production is reported.
– February Texas RRC production data shows that Midland County’s projected production slowly dropped from February 2025 to January 2026. This makes me think that Midland’s oil production has entered its declining phase. While February’s projected production increased, it may be due to January’s underproduction. However the rising time shifted rig count starting in March 2026 may indicate an upcoming rising production phase but not to a new high. The addition of six new rigs to Midland county in real August 2025 to 24 from 18 was an unexpected surprise and makes one wonder what it implies for Midland county oil production going forward after allowing for drilling start to production delay/lag.
– Martin’s county small February projected production increase indicates that its oil production may be close to entering its plateau phase of close to 750 kb/d.
Texas District 8
Comparison Chart from previous report.
District’s 8 projected production rose by 229 Kb/d in February. This is an overly optimistic projection that is being affected by the low production associated with the late January storm.
Compare the production for December 2025 in the comparison chart with the February update, 3,627 kb/d to 3,783 kb/d, an increase of 156 kb/d. This is due to the much larger gap between the green and orange graphs in the latest chart and the comparison chart. The larger gap may be due to delayed reporting by the Texas RRC.
The District 8 comparison chart may be more realistic in the sense that it is indicating that District 8 is in its plateau phase.
Plotting an oil production vs GOR graph for a district may be a bit of a stretch. Regardless here it is and it seems to indicate many District 8 counties may well be into the bubble point phase. The February GOR increased to 4.53, a new high as production continued to drop
Oil Production and GOR Charts for Four of the Next Larger Texas Oil Counties
Reeves County GOR is high because it is the number one Texas county ranked by gas production. The current C + C production is almost evenly split between crude and condensate, with condensate about 17% higher than crude.
Reeves County GOR first moved out of the Semi-Bounded region in June 2025 and in February reached a new high of 7.25 while initial production dropped to a new low of 394 kb/d.
The rig count is time shifted forward by 7 months.
In real June 2025, 29 rigs were operational in Reeves county. By late April 2026 the rig count had risen to 15 from a February low of 10 . Regardless of the current increase, 29 rigs to 15 rigs is a large drop in 10 months.
Loving’s projected production rose by 19 kb/d to 455 kb/d in February. For Febuary, the GOR increased to 4.23, a new high, while preliminary production had a small increase. It will be interesting to see if production continues to follow the rising rig count.
Loving’s rig graph is time shifted forward by 8 months.
Loving had 19 operational rigs in real June 2025 and also in late April 2029.
Upton’s projected February production rose by 25 kb/d to 322 kb/d.
For the next few months Upton County may see a production increase associated with the rising rig count which started in time shifted August 2025. A decline may begin in time shifted April 2026 as the rig count begins to drop. February’s production projection increase may also be affected by the late January under production related to the storm.
Upton’s GOR continues to stay within the Semi-Bounded region at 3.98.
Upton’s rig chart has been time shifted forward by six months. Upton began 2026 with 7.6 rigs. In real April 2026, the rig count had risen to 13.
Howard County oil production peaked in July 2023 and has been in a slow decline ever since.
February’s projected production rose by 37 kb/d to 284 kb/d. This may be an optimistic projection due to the low January production.
Note the rig count in time shifted June 2026 is 0.25, i.e. 1 rig for one week in real January 2026. The rig graph is time shifted forward by 5 months. In real April 2026, Howard added one rig for a total of one operational rig.
For February the GOR rose to a new high of 5.46 as the initial production dropped to 188 kb/d.
Drilling Productivity Report
The Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the principal tight oil regions. The new DPR report in the STEO provides production up to March 2026. The report also projects output to December 2027 for a number of basins. The DUC charts and Drilled Wells charts are also updated to March 2026.
The DPR has made been significant upward changes to the oil production forecasts for the three tight oil basins, Permian, Eagle Ford and Bakken reported here. It is not clear if the increases are related to the sudden rise in the WTI oil price from $65/barrel in February 2026 to over $100/b in March 2026. While production starts to rise in October 2026 all the way to December 2027, the price of WTI slowly drops back to $64/b in December 2027.
The forecast seems be model driven whereby increases in the oil price brings on new drilling and the associated increase in oil production. Also interestingly there appears to be the typical six to seven month delay from February 2026 before production begins to rise. The only flaw in this possibility is that oil prices fall steadily from March 2026 to December 2027. Also there has been no reported significant increase in drilling rigs in March and April 2026.
For the Permian, production was expected to increase in October because there was an expectation that new gas pipelines were being built that would permit more high GOR oil wells to be drilled. However the projected increase has been increased further.
So at this time, it is not clear if the sudden production increase starting in the September/October time frame is simply a partially driven model forecast or related to pure Hopium.
The EIA’s April STEO/DPR report shows Permian March output rose by 20 kb/d to 6,553 kb/d. March production is expected to increase by 23 kb/d to 6,576 kb/d. From March 2026 to December 2027 output is expected to increase by 568 kb/d to 7,121 kb/d. December 2027 production has been revised up by 143 kb/d from the previous report.
Note that production begins to rise steadily from September 2026 to December 2027. According to the EIA, this is due to higher prices for WTI and more NG pipelines being built. The gas pipelines are needed to capture the associated flared gas coming from new oil wells.
Production from new wells and legacy decline, right scale, have been added to this chart to show the difference between new production and legacy decline.
These numbers reflect a one year production trend and provide the production contribution from new wells over a rolling 12-month period to determine if the rate of new production is increasing or decreasing compared to previous periods. The averaging process approximately adds a six month delay.
Comparison chart from previous post.
March’s output in the Eagle Ford basin decreased by 2 kb/d to 1,152 kb/d. April’s 2026 production is forecast to drop by 1 kb/d to 1,151 kb/d.
Output in December 2027 expected to be 1,241 kb/d, revised up by 87 kb/d from the previous report. The dramatic production change in going from the February report to the March report can be seen by comparing the current month chart with the comparison chart above.
The DPR/STEO reported the Bakken’s March output dropped by 3 kb/d to 1,159 kb/d. April 2026 production is expected to decrease by 6 kb/d to 1,153 kb/d. The STEO/DPR projection, red markers, shows output rising to 1,229 kb/d in December 2027.
This chart plots the combined production from the three main LTO regions. March output increased by 13 kb/d to 8,860 kb/d. April is expected to add 20 kb/d to 8,880 kb/d. Production for December 2027 is forecast to be 9,269 kb/d.
DUCs and Drilled Wells
The number of DUCs available for completion in the Permian and the three major DPR regions continues its dropping trend. March’s DUC count for the three basins dropped by 16 to 1,409. In the Permian the DUC count dropped by 11 to 793.
In the three primary regions, a total of 623 wells were completed in March, 8 more than in February. There were 607 wells drilled in March 2026, up 9 from February 2026.
In the Permian, 452 wells were completed in March and 441 were drilled.
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