Peak Oil Barrel

Short Term Energy Outlook, March 2026

D C

The EIA Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published recently. A summary in chart form.

The EIA assumes the oil shock from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be over by June and oil prices will fall relatively quickly. This seems an optimistic assumption.

The higher oil prices in 2026 and 2027 lead to higher US crude output than last month’s STEO in 2027 by about 500 kb/d. There is about a 7 month delay between higher prices and the higher output that results in the Permian Basin where most of the US increase is expected to occur. Again I believe this forecast misses the pressure depletion occurring in the Permian Basin that will make it very difficult to even maintain current output levels so this forecast is optimistic in my view at the oil prices assumed by the EIA forecast.

The higher natural gas output compared to previous STEO reports is mostly due to higher associated gas output that is assumed to come from the Permian Basin. Again I think this is incorrect and believe Permian output of both oil and natural gas will be less than forecast by the EIA.

Note that the chart above shows marketed natural gas, before the NGL is removed, where the previous chart gives us dry natural gas production after the NGL has been removed from the wet gas stream. Marketed natural gas output in 2027 is forecast at an average annual rate of 123.9 BCF/d, about 11.6 BCF/d more than dry natural gas average output in 2027.

A colder winter than forecast in October 2025 has lead to a lower March 2026 natural gas inventory in the current STEO compared to last October.

Electricity consumption has grown faster than the 2010-2019 period and this is expected to continue through 2027.

Solar generation is expected to grow quickly in 2025-2026 especially in Texas. Wind is the second largest growing category of electricity output nationwide followed by nuclear and hydro for 2025-2026.

Notice the large oil stock build expected in 2026 and 2027. Again this seems optimistic at the forecast price level.

A large OECD stock build is expected in 2026 and 2027, close to pandemic level highs, again very optimistic.

The increase in natural gas output is expected to come from Appalachia, Haynesville, and Permian Basin regions.

Note that for the two charts above the forecast line is set at June 2024 rather than Jan 2026 where it should be placed. The increase in US L48 onshore output comes primarily from the Permian Basin over the August 2026 to Jan 2027 period, with an increase of 300 kb/d over this 5 month period. This forecast is highly unlikely at the oil and gas prices forecast by the March STEO.

Above is my guess for Permian output at an oil and gas price level as forecast by the EIA in the March STEO. This might also be too optimistic in the long run. Average annual Permian tight oil output increases by about 6 kb/d from 2025 to 2027 for this scenario.

D C

138 responses to “Short Term Energy Outlook, March 2026”

  1. DC

    Great piece at link below

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/23/opinion/trump-iran-general-mcchrystal.html?unlocked_article_code=1.VlA.i_l1.2jTmiWm-rxwk&smid=url-share

    Reply
    1. Seppo Korpela

      Thank you Denis, it was a good piece.

    2. DC

      You’re are most welcome Professor Korpela, glad to hear the link worked.

      An alternative link, if the previous link does not work for others.

      https://tjpolitics.blogspot.com/2026/03/interview-with-general-stanley.html

    3. DC

      Slight revision to my Permian scenario with a faster decrease in completion rate after 2034 compared with the scenario at the end of the post, perhaps a bit more realistic assuming future oil price follows the current futures curve for Brent crude. Chart at link below

      permian 260325

    4. DC

      A tight oil scenario using the revised Permian scenario in 3/25/26 comment above. Probably too optimistic based on comments at oilystuff.com by an expert, reaches 7.5 Mb/d in July 2033, about 2.5 years later than expected by the expert. My expectation is that the expert’s guess is far better than mine. Chart at link below.

      tight model 2603

    5. DC

      A revised US tight oil scenario more in line with expert opinion at oilystuff.com. See March 17 comment by Mike at link below

      https://www.oilystuff.com/group/operational-stuff/discussion/a7b6a25b-a375-4b33-a251-628fce98da24?commentId=fc1c19b5-2003-468c-b00d-eff296a54873

      Tight oil output falls from 9.4 Mb/d in March 2026 to 7.5 Mb/d in Sept 2031 for this scenario, see chart below. Perhaps a bit more realistic than previous scenarios for future oil prices in line with the current futures curve. About 33.6 Gb of tight oil has been extracted through February 2026 in the United States, about 48.4% of the URR for this scenario. Cumulative output reaches 50% of URR for this scenario in August 2026 (5 months in the future).

      tight 260327

    6. DC

      An updated World Oil Shock Model using tight oil scenario with URR of 69 Gb from March 27. See link below, peak in 2027 with average annual World C+C output at 85.5 Mb/d.

      This is not intended as an April Fool’s joke.

      shock2603

  2. DC

    Prices at Waha close to negative $10/MCF, as gas pipes are down for spring maintenance.

    https://energypeoplegroup.com/news/permian-basin-gas-prices-record-lows-pipeline-bottlenecks/2026/

    Reply
  3. shallow sand

    In the “information age” I feel we are receiving more conflicting information than ever and believing whatever fits our personal narrative.

    I also believe all guardrails are now off regarding elected official corruption. This has been enabled by “the Information Age.”

    The trading before President Trump’s tweet Monday being only the latest example.

    Whatever happened to, “drain the swamp?”

    Read an article about the USA balance sheet. Not even including social security and Medicare liabilities, it was broken down by this example:

    The USA balance sheet is like a household making $55k per year, spending $77k per year, with $1.3 million of debt and $65k of assets.

    Think about that one.

    Reply
    1. CSH

      The last line is spot on. Everyone ignores public debt and pretends like it doesn’t matter. But it is enormous and it is going to cause big trouble down the road. Inflation is one very certain consequence.

    2. Iron Mike

      The internet was labelled the “information highway” when it was first implemented for public use.

      I think in hindsight we should have labelled it “misinformation” or worse the “disinformation” highway.

    3. Hickory

      Would anyone be surprised to find out that one of the important news items on this war over the past 3 weeks was a fabrication? Perhaps a interview clip with Trump, or a video of an explosion at some infrastructure facility, for example. There have been a 100 news items of consequence.

      I am not saying that anything has been fabricated, rather that we have reached a status of technology that allows fabricated media to get by all of our personal defenses….generally very weak defenses that we all have at distilling fact from fictional/manipulated narrative.

      One guy did an experiment where he trained AI to impersonate his voice, and communication mannerisms/past content. He then had it call his wife and had a pretty long conversation. She had no idea it was AI (and was pretty pissed off to be a guinea pig).

      Its getting crazy (ier). Be on guard as best you can.

    4. DC

      Shallow sand,

      Certainly policy reform is needed. See

      https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/unsustainable-fiscal-path.html

      and

      https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2025/FY-2025-Financial-Report-3-19-2025(Final).pdf

    5. T HILL

      Transparency International maintains a ‘Corruption Perceptions Index’ scored from 0 to 100. US is ranked 29th with a score of 64. US score was fairly stable from 1995 inception through around 2017, and has trended down since then.

      Corruption Perceptions Index 2025 – Transparency.org

  4. Matt Mushalik

    80% of crude oil passing through Hormuz goes to Asia which is hard hit. Here is the situation in Australia which depends on fuel imports from Asian refineries:

    25 Mar 2026
    Yes Minister, Chinese tankers still arrive in Sydney just in time.
    https://crudeoilpeak.info/yes-minister-chinese-tankers-still-arrive-in-sydney-just-in-time

    19/3/2026
    Where does Australia get its diesel from? Update January 2026
    https://crudeoilpeak.info/where-does-australia-get-its-diesel-from-update-january-2026

    China fuel exports suspension: Australia will have to replace 28% of its jet fuel imports from other countries
    7 Mar 2026
    https://crudeoilpeak.info/china-fuel-exports-suspension-australia-will-have-to-replace-28-of-its-jet-fuel-imports-from-other-countries

    Reply
    1. Iron Mike

      Successive governments in Australia have been severely incompetent at best and at worst they have been purposely deceptive and purely ideologically driven. Hence the rise of ONP, I think people are sick of the uniparty and just protest voting now.

    2. Andre The Giant

      Australia will move to Coal to Liquids after this fuel scare.

      Iran and China are taunting OZ.

      Japan says they will help the country secure fuel.

      The country has been exposed.

  5. DC

    US EIA revised tight oil estimates in March, peak for trailing 12 month average is Feb 2026 (most recent data point) for both Permian (5494 kb/d) and US tight oil (9303 kb/d). Monthly output peaks in July 2025 for US tight (9407 kb/d) and Nov 2025 for Permian (6036 kb/d). Feb 2026 output was 5913 kb/d for Permian and 9230 kb/d for US tight oil. Permian output is about 64% of US tight oil total for most recent 12 months.

    See chart at link below.

    tight 2603

    Reply
  6. SRSrocco

    The Massive AI Bubble Popping Suggests The End Of The Empire of Hubris

    This comment is related to energy, even though the title doesn’t suggest it.

    While I typically like to focus on data, information, and analysis, I am going to stick my neck out and provide my opinion on the future of the U.S. High-Tech Economy.

    Before I do, please understand that China is also in serious trouble due to its rapid rise to become a Global High-Tech Metropolis in less than 25 years, whereas it took the USA 50-75 years, depending on how we gauge the time-period.

    Since about 2017, there hasn’t been any real new technology worth investing in or offering a sustainable profit margin.

    The Grand Bitcoin Mining Experiment that took place, mostly in Texas, was the beginning of the end of the spread of technology as we know it, or as we currently know it. With Bitcoin Mining failing to make a profit, the top Public Bitcoin Miners are now transitioning to AI-HPC Data Centers in the hopes that shareholders are too stupid to realize… they are JUMPING out of the FRYING PAN and into the FIRE.

    The Race to the Massive AI-HPC Data Center Buildout is now experiencing significant CRACKS and RED WARNING LIGHTS. Those wise enough to see it realize this is the Biggest Bubble in History, surpassing the 2000 Dot.com Bubble and the 2008 Subprime Meltdown.

    The notion that More AI-HPC Data Centers will make the Lame LLMs – Large Languange Models more efficient or become AI- Real Artificial Intelligence, is one that the AI Salesmen (Dario Amodei, the co-founder and CEO of Anthropic-the worst of the worst) are desperately trying to fool the Public and Mainstream Financial Press that still seems to continue to be clueless.

    However, not only do we NOT have the Energy or Materials to build out these Massively Complex and Energy-Black Holes AI-Data Centers (especially getting ready to roll out the Vera-Rubin GPUs that make the Blackwell GPUs look pathetic)… even if they were built out, they ARE NOT PROFITABLE and DO NOT PROVIDE anything remarkably close to what they PROMISED.

    The notion that LAME LLMs are going to destroy a massive amount of jobs and get rid of Software Programmers, etc, will turn out to be a BIG JOKE on CEOs of large companies who are too inept to see through it.

    So, with the current Iran War, now changing the way war is WAGED, the popping of the Great AI-HPC Bubble will also destroy the forecasted massive High-Tech Growth in the USA that is supposed to take place over the next 5-10 years. Thus, there is NOTHING to grow the economy when this AI-Bubble Pops.

    Furthermore, the forecast demand for industrial metals, commodities, energy, and services associated with this AI-HPC Data Center Buildout will not materialize.

    Ironically, even the large Platforms like Google, Meta, and Twitter no longer provide excellent services to both customers and businesses. Their business models have become a Large Tapeworm sucking profits without providing any real benefits to businesses and users.

    This is what Cory Doctorow calls the “Enshitification” of Technology & Business.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_ktaPutkjM&t

    So, when we are able to SEE THROUGH ALL THE SHYTE, and READ BETWEEN THE LINES, the U.S. Economy is being propped up by burning a massive amount of Energy into a supposed AI-HPC Data Center Industry Black Hole that has no Future.

    Thus, the U.S. Economy and its current Military (not just the USA, but the largest in the world) have entered a period of extreme HUBRIS, similar to Wild-E-Coyote running over the edge of the cliff and then putting his hand below to realize there is nothing there below….

    GOD HATH A SENSE OF HUMOR…

    steve

    Reply
    1. Andre The Giant

      Quantum computing will be sold as the next big thing.

      But that is a pipe dream at the moment, and perhaps forever.

      But get ready for “Quantum Platforms”

  7. Ovi

    Today’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

    Attached is a chart that compares US weekly oil production with the EIA’s monthly production report.

    As can be seen, the monthly October production report is almost the same as the weekly report on Nov 7. I think the weekly report revised their production based on the EIA report and the STEO. Since the November peak the weekly production has been falling along with the monthly production. The monthly production for January to April, green graph, is taken from the STEO forecast.

    The December weekly average is 13,837 kb/d whereas the EIA production for December is 13,655 kb/d, a difference of 182 kb/d.

    More critically, in both cases the trend is down up to January. After January the EIA’s STEO is showing increasing production up to March whereas the weekly production continue to fall up to March 20.

    Which one is correct, STEO or Weekly? Something to look forward to.

    Crude

    Reply
    1. DC

      Ovi,

      The weekly estimates are simply based on the most recent STEO and they are never revised. The monthly data is based on state data and surveys of the largest oil producers, that data gets revised annually based on State data that has become complete the timing of which varies from state to state (New Mexico for example is much more timely than Texas). When the weekly and Monthly estimates agree this is just by chance, nothing more. See pages 37-8 of document linked below, the section marked “Data Obtained through Models”

      https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/wpsrall.pdf

      Note that I would agree that the STEO estimates for March 2026 and later are likely to be too high. In particular, for Permian in 2027 the STEO has annual average Permian region output increasing by 360 kb/d above 2025 average output. This is likely to be too high by around 350 kb/d.

      As you suggested we will see. My guess is that we are either at US peak output or past peak C+C output. If there is a plateau, it is likely to be short (2 to 3 years at most).

  8. Ovi

    Today’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report (Cont)

    Attached is a portion of the petroleum balance sheet. Note how the net imports have gone up. For the last two weeks, the commercial crude stocks have risen. For the week ending March 13, stocks went up by 6.2 Mb. For this week they were up by 6.9 Mb.

    Is the govt trying to influence the price of WTI by asking its companies, XOM, CVE and Saudi Aramco to import more oil since rising inventories in the past resulted in falling WTI?

    I think the oil traders are waking up to these tricks and tweets and not listening to T. Look what has happened to WTI today after T said that they had sent Iran its 15 pt peace plan last night. From a WTI low of $86.50/b this morning around 7:00 to a close late today around $90/b, WTI has continued to rise to $91/b after settlement after Iran rejected the US plan.

    Where does this excursion end?

    Crude 2

    Reply
    1. DC

      Ovi,

      The bigger change is a fall in US crude exports, and imports actually fell from 3/13 to 3/20, but exports fell even more (846 kb/d more). Perhaps the removal of US sanctions on Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil reduced demand for US crude (which likely has a higher price) so US exports of crude oil decreased. This assumes the numbers are not being manipulated by the US Government (this is also possible, of course.)

    2. Ovi

      Dennis

      Tricky to know what is more important, the net imports or the individual components. Attached is late January export/import info.

      As you can see, net imports were bouncing between 1,000 kb/d and 2,700 kb/d and heading down. Last week net imports were bouncing between 2,300 kb/d and 3,100 kb/d and trending up.

      Upcoming supply shortages may limit imports shortly.

      A Crude

    3. DC

      Here is a chart of 4 week average of US net imports of crude, but both exports and imports will affect the net exports. They fluctuate seemingly randomly.

      crude net imports

    4. Ovi

      Dennis

      Good chart.

      Now that US production has peaked it will be interesting to see if the net imports crack those previous highs over 3,000 kb/d

    5. DC

      Ovi,

      Annual average US net imports of crude oil were over 10 Mb/d from 2004 to 2007, see longer term chart below from this link

      https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRNTUS2&f=A

      In 20 years US tight oil output might have fallen to the point that the US net imports of crude return to 10 Mb/d.

      chart(120)

  9. Paoil

    Regarding the World Liquid Fuels Production & Consumption Balance chart: when I compare March to February 2026, I see the combined implied stock draws for Q1 and Q2 are about 2mbpd less in March vs Feb. Is it correct this would be a total change of about 360mbpd in those 2 quarters? That total is less than what AI tells me is the amount of oil production impaired by the Strait of Hormuz closure to date (4 weeks of 10+mbpd already impaired, plus another 150mbpd+ impaired over a gradual restart if traffic were to open today). Am I correct, that if the Strait remains impaired for another month the Q2 build drifts to a draw? It would also seem that any impairment of the full restart of shut-in OPEC fields would threaten draws in Q3 and Q4. I suppose it’s obvious that EIA can’t predict length of impairments, but I’d be surprised to see Q2, Q3 and Q4 ending up looking like the March STEO.

    Reply
    1. DC

      Paoil,

      The STEO is often incorrect, below are some of the assumptions they made as of March 9 when they finished the report.

      “Crude oil prices have
      risen as petroleum shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen, and some Middle East
      oil production has been shut in.
      • Middle East oil production. We make the assumption in our modeling that the effective closure
      of the Strait of Hormuz will cause oil production in the Middle East to fall further in the coming
      weeks. We assume this shut-in production will gradually ease as transit through the Strait
      resumes.”

      Chart(119) below has their forecast for OPEC output, also see

      https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/data/browser/#/?v=30&f=M&s=0&start=202301&end=202701&linechart=COPR_OPEC~&maptype=0&ctype=linechart&map=

      OPEC crude output falls by 6 Mb/d from Feb to March, then recovers by August 2026. I do not expect this forecast will be correct.

      chart(119)

  10. Hickory

    Gasoline prices, US Gallon, 23-Mar-2026-
    around the world, average price for 95 Octane
    You can change the currency and volume of fluid reported (ex US dollar/ gallon, litre, barrel) to your liking.

    https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/

    Strain is starting to show in certain countries-
    MANILA, Philippines (AP) — Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Tuesday declared a state of national energy emergency to respond to the impact of the Middle East war, which his administration said posed “an imminent danger of a critically low energy supply.”
    https://apnews.com/article/philippines-president-marcos-national-energy-emergency-036099b9fc56964a35e0ca716a694e8b

    Reply
  11. SRSrocco

    Collapse Of Supply Chain Dynamics Kicks Into Higher Gear

    Some of the interesting news reports…

    Australia’s Fuels Dependence Turns Into a Crisis

    Australia’s long-standing model of exporting crude and importing refined fuels is breaking down amidst supply disruptions.

    Around 80–90% of its fuel demand (around 850,000 b/d) is import-dependent, leaving the system highly exposed to Asian export restrictions.

    With product stocks at ~30 days and domestic refining barely covering 20% of demand, import disruptions are rapidly translating into a real availability crisis.
    ———————————–

    Gas Crisis Dwarfs Oil Shock as LNG Supply Breaks

    Major disruptions in Qatar (15% of global LNG) and Australia have triggered a severe natural gas shortage, far worse than the oil shock.

    Gas prices have spiked sharply (Asia +143%, Europe +85%), with physical availability becoming a bigger issue than pricing.

    Countries are reverting to coal, Europe faces energy security risks, and rising gas costs could drive fertilizer shortages and food inflation.
    —————————

    Europe Faces Looming Fuel Shortages as Shell Warns of April Crunch

    Europe could experience energy shortages before the end of April, the chief executive of Shell has warned.

    Jet fuel supply has already tightened, and a diesel squeeze could be next, with gasoline supply tightening as well, as the continent nears peak fuel demand season in the summer, Wael Sawan said, as quoted by Reuters.

    “South Asia was first to get that brunt. That’s moved to Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and then more so into Europe as we get into April,” Sawan said, speaking at the CERAWeek conference in Texas. The executive noted that energy security is essential for national security.
    —————————

    Whatever Military Plan or Strategy that the USA is moving forward with, they need to do it sooner rather than later.

    Another 2-3 weeks of the Shutdown of the Straits of Hormuz, and the Global Energy & Supply Breakdown will likely disrupt the World Economy far worse than we realize.

    steve

    Reply
    1. hole in head

      Popped in for a view . My estimate .
      15 th April — break point
      30 th April — point of no return
      The chain is strongest as the weakest link .

    2. Alimbiquated

      steve,
      You’ll like this guy

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxUEOdC4VzU

      The key quote comes at the start: The hyperscalars have gone from being asset-light cash machines to asset heavy behemoths.

      He’s right. Companies like Google and Facebook (er Alphabet and Meta, sorry) used to be a license to print money. Their data center costs were trivial compared to the ad money pouring in. Efficiency is improving extremely quickly, but AI is still more like heavy industry than like traditional software.

      Higher methane prices aren’t helping.

    3. SRSrocco

      Alimbiquated,

      Yeah… I have been watching Ed Zitron’s interviews for several months now. I put him right up there with the other individuals who have a much better grasp of the AI-HPC Data Center Industry.

      Besides, Ed Zitron, and Cory Doctorow, Cal Newport is also an excellent software engineer who also is calling AI a Bubble and has the GOODS to back it up.

      Don’t Worry About the AI Apocalypse w/ Professor Cal Newport | The Rob Montz Show : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HB2Qx25Covo&t

      Why Is AI Making My Job *Worse*? | Cal Newport: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDyuJcR2GH4
      ———————————-

      Unfortunately, the Market, Economy and Financial Media still don’t understand how much of a Disaster the AI Bubble is, which is now 2-3X worse with the continued breakdown of the Global Supply Chains due to the current Iran War.

      steve

  12. T HILL

    26 days since closure of the Strait of Hormuz

    WTI approx $93-$94, up more than 40 percent since start.
    JKM approx $20, up around 100 percent since start.

    More important than a futures contract 1s and 0s are physical realities
    Physical crude up to $140-$150
    Physical LNG asia a bit under $20
    Iran estimated to have 440+ kg of highly enriched uranium, vs 0% before US pulled out of JCPOA. Location unconfirmed since cessation of IAEA inspections following 2025 12-Day War.

    Arguably the worst oil supply shock in history, not even counting all of the other critical resources now impacted that have not been in past disruptions.

    Reply
  13. WeekendPeak

    Check out “Operation Windlord” – 2/15/2026
    Looks more interesting that I thought when I read the headline
    Rgds
    WP

    Reply
    1. Nick G

      It’s a small reactor, which was carried (without fuel) by 3 C-17s, each of which can carry about 78 metric tons. So, in the neighborhood of 200 metric tons for 5MW.

      This is a prototype for military purposes. It’s not really a new concept – the US Navy has been using similar relatively small reactors to power ships since the 50’s, with power output ranging from roughly 5MWe to 30MWe.

      But…it’s cost plus. Everything I’ve seen suggests that this would be much more expensive for civilian purposes than….well…almost anything else.

      And, they still haven’t solved the weapons proliferation problem. That seems to be rarely discussed, but IMO that’s far more important than melt-down or waste disposal risks.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_modular_reactor

  14. DC

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/War-Could-Soon-Force-Oil-Prices-To-Catch-Up-with-the-Massive-Supply-Loss.html

    -Strait of Hormuz closure traps millions of barrels of crude, cutting exports and forcing Asian refiners to pay record premiums, while physical shortages build.

    -Futures markets lag fundamentals, keeping U.S. crude discounted, while Brent and Middle Eastern crude surge toward $150/barrel if disruptions persist.

    -Fuel rationing and export bans in Asia are already in place; shortages could spread to Europe by April, driving soaring energy prices and tightening global markets.

    Reply
  15. Hickory

    This conflict has gone on long enough to cement several global trend changes/accerlerations for the coming 10 years, globally
    -a tailwind for coal combustion, as an alternative to mideast LNG for electricity generation
    -a tailwind for nuclear energy construction (slow moving industry, but still)
    -a tailwind for solar and wind electricity generation, escalating
    -a tailwind for sources of oil and gas that are sourced from dependable lower risk regions such as Canada and Lat America.
    -a tailwind for electric vehicle deployment
    -an escalating scramble of the geopolitical/trade bloc relationships that have been in place since the 1970’s
    -higher prices for global food, which can lead to severe internal instability in many countries if the pricing leads to lack of affordability or supplies

    Reply
    1. Alimbiquated

      The longer the blockade, the more it benefits energy sources with long implementation times, nuclear in particular, but also EVs as opposed to oil burners. In the short term it looks like a further windfall for solar, already the fastest growing electricity source in absolute terms.

    2. Hickory

      Is Germany considering restarting the nuclear energy deployment? Do they have reactors that could be renovated?

    3. Nick G

      I can’t imagine how nuclear will compete with solar & batteries. It’s kind’ve like hydrogen passenger vehicles trying to compete with EVs: there’s just too much of a head start. Solar & batteries, like EVs, keep getting cheaper.

      If nuclear has a chance anywhere, it’s China, and nuclear is a very small portion of China’s energy buildout.

    4. Alimbiquated

      Nuclear is totally dead in Germany. The far right wants it back, and others toy with the idea occasionally, but the utilities are dead set against it.

      I think one serious hindrance would be trained personnel. Also nearly the entire industry around reprocessing and storing waste died in the nineties and in its current state it can barely deal with the tasks it has.

    5. Hickory

      “I can’t imagine how nuclear will compete with solar & batteries.”

      Simple concepts.
      Many places are not sunny for seasons at a time.
      Solar/batteries are great (viable and relatively lower cost) for places that have good sun consistently.
      Other mechanisms will used widely and at scale as part of the mix around the world, even if they are more expensive on average.
      And yes, nuclear is extremely expensive to build, and very slow to bring online.

    6. Nick G

      “ Many places are not sunny for seasons at a time.”

      Well, not the US. Not Germany, even though it’s pretty far north. Really, not about 95% of the world’s population.

      So, you have to wonder why nuclear is being promoted so heavily for the US. It feels very much like hydrogen passenger vehicles – they were a head fake. They were a deliberate red herring pushed by the Bush administration to head off EVs: In 2001 California’s Air Resources Board (CARB) was mandating EVs, and the Bush administration killed that, and used H2 as an excuse.

      Now the oil industry’s henchman in the White House is trying to kill off any competition, and will try any excuse to do it. Nuclear is a nice mirage to offer as a substitute for real competition.

      Again, look closely at China. They build nuclear more cheaply than anywhere else, and yet nuclear is a relatively tiny part of their energy buildout. Sure, there are a number of plants being built or planned, but when you take into account how long they take to build (even in China) you realize it’s not really significant compared to solar and wind.

  16. Ovi

    Rig Report for the Week Ending March 27

    The rig count drop that started in early April 2025 when 450 rigs were operating dropped this week. Drilling continues at a steady rate of 367 ± 5 rigs per week since August 2025 while WTI closed just shy of $100/b.

    – US Hz oil rigs dropped by 3 to 368, down 82 since April 2025 when it was 450. It was also up 6 rigs from the low of 362 first reached in the week ending August 1. The rig count is down 18% since April 2025.
    – While New Mexico Permian was unchanged at 92, there was a big shift internally. Eddy added 3 to 37 while Lea dropped 3 to 55.
    – Texas dropped 1 to 169. Midland dropped 1 to 19 while Martin held steady at 23. There were minor changes in two of the smaller oil producing counties. Loving added 1 to 18 while Reagan dropped 1 to 6.
    – Eagle Ford added 1 to 32.
    – NG Hz rigs dropped 2 to 112.

    A Rigs

    Reply
  17. Ovi

    How Many Fund Managers Were Under Weight Oils in their Client Portfolios

    WTI from $57/b on Jan 2 to $99.64/b on March 27.

    A WTI

    Reply
  18. Ovi

    Frac Spread Report for the Week Ending March 27

    The frac spread count dropped by 5 to 159. From one year ago, it is down by 50 spreads and is also down by 56 since March 28, 2025.

    A Frac

    Reply
  19. Alimbiquated

    If oil production is shut down for a few weeks around the Gulf, will it be able to start again immediately when the crisis is over?

    Reply
  20. Biến Động Xăng Dầu 2026: So Găng Cơ Chế Điều Hành Giá Giữa Hoa Kỳ Và Việt Nam – Tin mới trong ngày

    […] 19. Short Term Energy Outlook, March 2026, https://peakoilbarrel.com/short-term-energy-outlook-march-2026/ 20. Short-Term Energy Outlook – U.S. Energy Information Administration …, […]

    Reply
  21. SRSrocco

    The Next Spike In Oil Prices Likely As Yemen Joins The War & Threatens To Close The Bab al-Mandeb Strait

    The Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen has actively joined the regional conflict, targeting Israeli-linked and Western shipping in the Red Sea to exert control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. They have launched drones and missiles, with officials explicitly threatening to close this critical trade route,

    As the Iran War continues to intensify, with a great deal of bomb destruction taking place in Iran, unfortunately, the U.S. and Israel are also experiencing significant military damage.

    According to Military Watch Magazine…..

    Israeli Army Takes Heaviest Tank Losses in Over 40 Years as Hezbollah Ambushes Destroy 21 Merkavas in One Day

    The Lebanese paramilitary group Hezbollah has reported on the results of multiple ambushes launched against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, with 21 Israeli Merkava main battle tanks reported on March 26 to have been destroyed within a 24 hour period. Other consequences of engagements have included the firing of over 60 rockets at targets in the Galilee region that day, complementing much longer range strikes against Israeli targets launched by Hezbollah’s close strategic partner Iran.
    —————————

    If true, this is a major setback for Israel, as further estimates over the past month suggest a total of 100 Israeli Merkava tanks have been destroyed.

    Furthermore, according to the Defense Blog:

    Iranian missile hits U.S. E-3 AWACS aircraft at Saudi base

    An Iranian missile and drone attack on March 27 struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, wounding multiple United States service members and damaging several aircraft, including an E-3 Sentry airborne warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft and aerial refueling planes.

    According to Air & Space Forces Magazine, citing people familiar with the matter, around 10 service members were wounded in the attack, including two with serious injuries. The strike involved at least one missile impact on the base, along with the use of multiple drones.

    A spokesperson for U.S. Central Command declined to comment on the incident. Initial reporting indicates that multiple aircraft sustained damage, including aerial refueling platforms and an E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft used for airborne command and control.
    ——————–

    Thus, the notion put forth by the U.S. Administration that the Dept of War has destroyed most of Iran’s missile launchers and has basically won the war already… we continue to see significant damage to U.S. and Israeli military and strategic assets in the Middle East.

    If Yemen is able to take control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, this will certainly put more strain on the U.S. and Israel’s ability to end the war quickly.

    Thus, the world could now be looking at $125-$150 oil prices in the not-so-distant future.

    steve

    Reply
    1. DC

      Steve,

      The physical market is already at $150/b in many places (Indian basket at $157/b 5 days ago), as you know the paper market does not always reflect the physical market correctly. Many are expecting $200/b of the war goes another month and it seems doubtful that Trump will want to be accused of TACO again so he is now trying to save face. The Iranians may have the upper hand in terms of lengthening the conflict and inflicting economic pain. This war was a very bad choice by Trump.

      Bad decisions by an old man who is a lame duck is the reason a vote for Trump was a very bad idea.

    2. SRSrocco

      DC,

      Right… I was quoting the WTIC-BRENT prices, but yes… I think it is quite possible to see $200 oil if the war continues for another 2-3+ weeks.

      The IRONY about this situation is that there are people who actually believe the SPIN being put out by the U.S. Administration that the Department of War is in total control of the situation. Unfortunately, quite the opposite seems to be the case.

      I am seeing KABUKI THEATER in spades, which is really troubling because the foundation of the U.S. Economy, built on the AI-HPC Data Center Industry Buildout, is also in serious trouble. Thus, we are facing massive Stagflation if the Dept of War Doubles and Triples down, which tends to be what President Trump is famous for.

      I can’t believe what I am seeing….

      steve

    3. T HILL

      Agreed. It is mind boggling that what we are living in represents reality and not some strange fever dream. I lack the skill to articulate just how much damage this current administration is doing to the country and the world. Certainly a good reminder that geology often pales in comparison to above ground factors. I wonder how many countries might be thinking about adding tariffs to a certain trading partner in an attempt to recover their increased costs.

      As an aside, I’m no expert in this area, but the link below is one of the best summaries that I’ve seen regarding nuclear power.

      “The definitive guide to Nuclear: uranium, enrichment, and the supply chain behind 440 reactors.”
      https://substack.com/home/post/p-190654061

    4. Hickory

      Thanks for that T Hill.

    5. Nick G

      Yes, it’s a pretty good collection of arguments for nuclear.

      It’s still not convincing. For instance, it relies on tired old arguments against batteries, and ignores other forms of long-term storage, like H2 in salt caverns.

  22. T HILL

    I’ve generally looked at the EIA weekly SPR report at the link below. Are there any other sources for daily data? Sure seems like the 2022 release and this pending release fall short of the ‘strategic’ headline.

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W

    Reply
  23. Opritov Alexander

    https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/03/russia-oil-iran-war-consequences

    Reply
    1. Iron Mike

      +1

    2. Nick G

      This is a very Russian perspective – there’s no mention at all of renewable alternatives to Russian oil and gas. Those alternatives can’t ramp up overnight, but in the medium term they’re a very big factor.

    3. Alimbiquated

      The short version: Putin would rather be a Chinese vassal than a European partner, but will probably get neither, even with help from the White House.

  24. SRSrocco

    United States to Release 172 Million Barrels of Oil From the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

    “As part of this effort, President Trump authorized the Department of Energy to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, beginning next week. This will take approximately 120 days to deliver based on planned discharge rates. ”

    Key Details of the SPR Drawdown

    Total Amount: 172 million barrels will be released starting the week of March 11, 2026
    .
    Remaining Reserves: The release is expected to bring the SPR down to approximately 243 million barrels, representing a 41% decrease from its early-March 2026 level of 415 million barrels.

    Purpose:The action is part of a coordinated international effort to combat rising oil prices and supply chain shocks, with the U.S. acting alongside members of the International Energy Agency.

    Context: This is the second-largest release in U.S. history, following the 180-million-barrel release ordered in 2022.

    Refilling Plan: The Department of Energy has stated its intention to replace the drawdown with 200 million barrels within the next year, citing the need to replenish the reserves after previous administrations lowered them.

    Department of Energy (.gov)
    —————————————-

    If the U.S. Administration releases 172 million barrels of oil over the next 120 days and brings the total SPR down to 243 million barrels, this will be the lowest level since the EIA began recording data in 1982.

    Going to be quite the interesting year.

    Steve

    Reply
    1. shallow sand

      Steve. I went to the EIA SPR data. It looks like we started the SPR in 1977 and it took several years to build it to over 500 million barrels. We were still building it in 1982, when the volume was last under 250k. From the time we built it until President Biden authorized release of 180 million, the volume was always well over 500 million, mostly 600-700 million.

      Biden’s’ release was unprecedented and this release will also qualify as unprecedented given how low it will drop.

  25. Ovi

    Saudi East-West pipeline maxed out on Hormuz closure

    “Despite operating at full capacity, flows through the pipeline remain insufficient to compensate for the loss of Hormuz, which previously handled around 15mn b/d of crude flows. Saudi Arabia exported around 7.1mn b/d of crude in February and averaged 6.3mn b/d in 2025, with roughly 5.5mn b/d previously shipped via the Mideast Gulf. The kingdom’s ability to rapidly deploy spare infrastructure and reroute exports reinforces its position as the world’s primary supplier of last resort.

    Saudi Arabia has also cut production by around 2.5mn b/d, shutting in several offshore fields — including Safaniya, Marjan, Zuluf and Abu Safa — in response to Iranian missile and drone threats targeting Gulf energy infrastructure”

    https://www.argusmedia.com/pages/NewsBody.aspx?frame=yes&id=2807554&menu=yes

    Reply
    1. Paul Pukite (@whut)

      From a post “33% of global helium is now offline. Gulf aluminum smelters were hit and seaborne sulfur is cut in half. Every cascade is now in motion.Fabs carry less than 90 days of helium and it has no substitute in semiconductor fabrication. Samsung and SK Hynix have already activated conservation protocols. Two more months of this and data center construction runs short of materials. There is no substitute, no alternative supplier at this scale, and no strategic reserve.”

      Helium is extracted only as a by-product of conventional natural gas fields, e.g.Qatar. One of the examples of a finite & non-renewable natural resource. ALL of helium eventually escapes into space with no hope of recovery.

  26. Hickory

    Petulant Fool in action-
    “Donald Trump’s hatred for wind farms reached a new peak this week. The President announced that the United States will payback $1 billion in taxpayer dollars to a French company to not build planned wind farms in leased federal waters off the coast of New York and North Carolina. Together, those wind projects would have supplied more than 4 gigawatts of clean electricity for households and businesses in the United States.”

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-High-Cost-of-Canceling-Offshore-Wind-in-the-United-States.html

    Reply
    1. shallow sand

      No clue how this could be legal without Congressional approval.

    2. T HILL

      Thanks Hickory. 4GW! South Fork has had a capacity factor around 50% since it went online in mid 2024. Excluding transmission issues common to most generation sources, it certainly seems like wind, solar & batteries have a development time that puts options like nuclear in the backseat.

      Shallow Sand,
      I think I have seen in other comments that you may be an attorney? I am not.

      Sincere question : Does it matter if this is legal or not if it is part of a pattern that achieves the administration intent?

      To clarify, I am in no way condoning actions that are not legal. However, it seems like the current administration is racking up a long list of behavior that is being rejected by a very large majority of federal judges as soon as they can catch up with the pace of such behavior. And yet, in many cases the actual administration actions have occurred with permanent consequences. Specific to wind energy, the 800MW Empire Wind project was repeatedly halted by the current administration only to have the project prevail in court. Any yet, the developers spent tens of millions dealing with this and the project timeline slipped. Press reports indicated that they were close to walking away. The industry received a very clear message. The US used to be attractive for development in part because of regulatory/legal stability. This seems increasingly at risk.

    3. Nick G

      T Hill,

      I’m not sure what you’re asking. If it’s illegal, and it’s part of a pattern, that makes it even more illegal – think racketeering and RICO.

      If you’re asking if the president’s strategy of flooding his opponents with a large volume of illegal activity is succeeding…I’d have to say it’s having a fair amount of success. Not as much success as it would have if his subordinates were generally competent (e.g, Witkof and Hegseth are spectacularly incompetent), but still a fair amount of success.

    4. T HILL

      Sorry Nick, I’ve got some muddy thinking here related to my ignorance of this particular above ground constraint on energy. Not an area of personal expertise. I’m trying to understand:

      1. To what degree legality of government actions matter vs the consequences of those actions.
      2. To what degree has there or has there not been an erosion of the rule of law under this administration.
      3. To what degree the slowness of the march of the legal system drives consequences all by itself.

      For example, Trump blocks Empire Wind and the NY governor makes a realpolitik decision to accept the NESE pipeline to get the project moving again. Not making any comment about the underlying pro/con of the NESE pipeline. The courts found that federal government actions in 2025 and 2026 relative to Empire wind were unlawful. It seems to beg the question whether or not legality matters.

    5. Nick G

      T Hill,

      “ 1. To what degree legality of government actions matter vs the consequences of those actions.”

      It’s not one vs the other – they’re both important. Generally things are illegal because they’re a bad idea. In government, if proper process isn’t followed (like getting approval of Congress) you’re likely to get very bad decisions & bad consequences, like we’re seeing in this current war.

      Similarly, the wind farm cancellations are both illegal *and* will have bad consequences. This isn’t an accident – proper procedure would have prevented these cancellations, which of course is why this president didn’t follow proper procedure.

      Perhaps you’re asking whether legal protections are effective. Well, clearly sometimes they are and sometimes they aren’t. For instance, there have been a number of wind farms that the president tried to cancel, and failed in the attempt because the law stopped him.

      OTOH, sometimes the law isn’t’ effective. The poster child for this is impeachment, which is the constitutional remedy for corrupt and incompetent presidents. This remedy failed spectacularly (twice!) in the case of this president. That’s because the Republican Party has been captured by special interests (the wealthy and the FF industries).

  27. Lars Larsen

    My friends, the Third World War has begun, a global energy shock is happening, and we will soon enter a global economic depression, which will lead to the reign of the Antichrist, which will kill the planet, and we will then all die and enter the “Millennial Kingdom” with Jesus, our King.

    Reply
    1. Ron Patterson

      I’m calling bullshit on that one.

    2. LeeG

      Non-oil comment.

      You do you.

    3. Hickory

      Take responsibility for your own mind.
      No such thing as a messiah, before or ever.

      War and cruelty are deliberate acts of man.

    4. SRSrocco

      Ron,

      LOL… thanks. I need that laugh.

      We live in crazy times and with lots of crazy people. Especially, those who think it’s cool to paint themselves orange.

      steve

    5. Nick G

      Poe’s Law, as explained by the LessWrong website https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dFoF4soBj3QSwKR3C/eponymous-laws-part-i-laws-of-the-internet, states that without a clear indicator, such as a winking smiley, it is impossible to create a parody of extreme views that someone won’t mistake for the real thing. It highlights the difficulty in distinguishing satire from sincere, albeit radical, expressions.

      40% of the US public believes in exactly this kind of apocalyptic stuff! So, this comment could be entirely sincere!

    6. Mike B

      This is bullshit . . . and the view of Hegseth and others in the Administration.

      We’re f*cked.

  28. Lars Larsen

    Do not forget my prophecies in my book on the end of global net oil exports:

    https://archive.org/details/oil-exports.-34odt-1

    My prophecies are still valid.

    Reply
  29. DC

    The oil supply glut has petered out and we have a very fragile oil market see link below

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Cushion-Is-Gone-and-the-Oil-Market-Is-Now-Exposed.html

    Reply
    1. LeeG

      There was the Friedman Unit to manage realities lack of cooperation during the occupation of Iraq. About six months. Not sure who should take the title for the latest two week unit of criticality.

  30. Hickory

    Seems like the Trump admin tactics deployed will result in Iran controlling the SOH for an indefinite period, and profiting handsomely for allowing freight to pass.. They could continue to block flow of goods to and fro the other gulf countries (Arab) whom they see as adversaries to their mission.
    This is not lost on the Gulf States… “Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have privately urged the US to “finish the job” in Iran and topple the regime”.
    Iran government can bid their time longer than the US or world economy. They are earning more on the oil trade now than before the attack commenced.

    They are dependent on imports which could start to bite however. I am surprised that the US has not tried to block ships bound for Iran with cargo. Probably not enough naval power to accomplish it, and the trading countries would be even more pissed off.
    “Iran’s top imports are mainly machinery, industrial raw materials, and essential food items, totaling roughly $60–113 billion annually as of 2023–2024. Key imported goods include soybean meal, corn, vehicle parts, and pharmaceutical products. Major import partners are dominated by China, the UAE, Turkey, Brazil, and Germany”

    Reply
  31. John

    There have been localised famines and fuel shortages throughout history. Forests or coal mines depleted, causing people to abandon cities.
    I never took Biblical prophecies of global inflation, sky high foods costs seriously.

    I read the prophecy, the Nations of the world would find Jerusalem to be a heavy stone they cannot move. I never imagined why the nations of the world would bother with a tiny country smaller than the State of New Jersey?

    Yet two thousand years later here we are.
    Global diesel stocks are at critical levels, natural gas prices are forcing industry to curtail hours. Fertilisers needed for this years harvest are at record prices.

    I think it’s foolish to dismiss any book unless you have actually read it and understood it.

    Reply
    1. Ron Patterson

      John, if that book you are talking about is the Bible, I have read it and I fully understand it. It is bullshit from cover to cover.

    2. Nick G

      Ron,

      I think that’s a little strong.

      I’d describe it as: badly out of date, with no good mechanism for revisions to keep it current. The revision system seems to rely on “prophets” and Messiahs. A very unreliable system.

      The last revision, the New Testament, is 2,000 years old! It still has clearly out of date stuff, like slavery.

      Plus, there’s no clear guide to what, if any, elements of the Old Testament are still to be followed – it’s so obvious that some of it no longer applies that almost all Christians ignore most of it, but it’s all still available to confuse people.

      Just a very badly managed Life User Manual.

    3. Ron Patterson

      Nick, no, it is not too strong. On the contrary, it is way too mild. I am inserting below a small section in my new book, out in May I hope. It is my take on Numbers 31:

      Okay, shocking, but it’s in the Bible.
      Numbers 31, God’s ordered vengeance upon the Midianites:
      31:1 And the Lord spake unto Moses, saying,
      2 Avenge the children of Israel of the Midianites: afterward shalt thou be gathered unto thy people.
      3 And Moses spake unto the people, saying, Arm some of yourselves unto the war, and let them go against the Midianites, and avenge the Lord of Midian.
      4 Of every tribe a thousand, throughout all the tribes of Israel, shall ye send to the war.
      Skipping to verse 14, where the Israeli army returns with their spoiles of war.
      14 And Moses was wroth with the officers of the host, with the captains over thousands, and captains over hundreds, which came from the battle.
      15 And Moses said unto them, Have ye saved all the women alive?
      16 Behold, these caused the children of Israel, through the counsel of Balaam, to commit trespass against the Lord in the matter of Peor, and there was a plague among the congregation of the Lord.
      17 Now therefore kill every male among the little ones, and kill every woman that hath known man by lying with him.
      18 But all the women children, that have not known a man by lying with him, keep alive for yourselves.
      —————————–
      Now, suppose we are making a movie and wish to depict this scene exactly as it went down. Realizing, of course, we are just making a movie. We know this shit never really happened. But of their booty, how many were human beings? Skipping to verse 32 we can get some idea.
      ___________________________________________

      Okay, I posted my skit as to how this movie scene would take place but I decided that was a little too rough for this list and deleted it. But you can imagine how those little kiddies were killed and how the determined which of the girls were virgins.

      But we all know none of this really horrible shit really happened. It was all fiction. No babies were killed, no little toddlers were slain and there was no “Culling of the Virgins”. But I did depict in my book exactly how it would happen if we were to depict the scene in a movie.

    4. Nick G

      Ron,

      The world of 2,500 years ago was really brutal. You’ve got to keep that in mind to keep things in proper perspective. Heck, the world 1,000 and 500 years ago was really brutal. Genocide, ethnic cleansing, rape and pillage, were all pretty standard – Look up the tactics of Genghis Khan. Heck, look at the behavior of the Japanese in China in the 30’s or Russia in Germany at the end of WWII. Really brutal. And children – don’t get me started: child abuse of various sorts was normal: child labor, child marriage, abuse and neglect were just normal and expected.

      So, a Life User Manual for any era before the last few years is going to be brutal.

      And….it will need revision for the current era.

      The bible needs revision. So does the Koran, and every other religious text. Jainism is ok. Bahai is pretty good. But most are terrible as seen from a modern perspective.

      Now, another very important point is that widely misunderstood: religious texts like the Bible and the Koran represented major reforms over previous norms. For example: “Eye for an eye, tooth for a tooth” was a big upgrade from the standard practice of taking revenge out of proportion to the original offense. Eye for an eye was a big, big improvement. Similarly, the treatment of women in the Koran was a major upgrade, intended to protect women from standard abuses. Hard to see now, but it was.

      Religion was a major upgrade from the earlier practice of relating to and protecting only your relatives. Suddenly you considered people you had never met as family: Islam has their adherents consider everyone in the religion as family: brothers and sisters.

      Now, in the modern era is this obviously too limited: we need to extend our understanding and sympathy further out. But in it’s time religion was a major improvement.

    5. Ron Patterson

      Nick G, I agree with you 100%. It was a brutal world in those days. Every day, the population of any city or community knew that any day, a reading party could come over the horizon and kill everyone in their city. They lived with such fear every day. That led them to hate their enemy. Every member of the enemy tribe, they regarded as less than human. It was only natural that they would want them all dead, man, woman, child, and suckling babe. And if you and I had lived in those days, we would have felt the same.

      But Nick, we are not talking about the horrible conditions people of that time that people had to live with. We are talking about to WORD OF GOD! God would understand the people’s problems. And if he was writing rules for everyone to follow for as long as time existed, he would not have proposed such a horrible treatment for poor inniocent people who wanted nothing but to suvrive in a horrible world.

      Nick, my point is that the book was written by people of the time, with all the hatred and prejudices that were normal for people to hold in that day and time. To posit it as the inspired word of God, with rules that we must follow, is an insult to our common sense.

      Recognize it for what it is. Bullshit that people really believed three thousand years ago. But don’t posit it as the inspired word of God as normal behavior for people today.

    6. Nick G

      Ron,

      I agree 100%. And…I wasn’t suggesting that the classic religious texts, or their religions were supernaturally inspired. They don’t have to be to have been useful, just as classic forms of denial, like an afterlife or a universe directed by a benign omniscient supernatural father figure, may be useful without being realistic.

      Look at Buddhism. I don’t see any sign that it originally claimed supernatural inspiration. In the many years since it’s followers have *mostly* encrusted it with supernatural ideas, but AFAIK it was originally just an inspired Life User Manual.

      Humanity is still in its psychological and social adolescence, and most people don’t seem ready to give up supernatural explanations. Given that, I have to admit I don’t know exactly what a modern update of the Bible or Koran would look like.

      But…I think my comments above still provide helpful perspective.

    7. Ron Patterson

      Nick, Okay, I think we have beaten this horse to death. We seem to have a lot in common. Except, though I know that Yahwea is a myth, I still think there is a source of all that exists. If there were no source of all that exists, then nothing would exist.

      But it has nothing, I mean absolutely nothing, to do with religion. That is the point that all the materialists gets wrong. They think that if there is a source of all that exist, then that must be Yahweh, God of the Bible. So the atheist and the theist square off and do their battle. Neither realizes that they are BOTH WRONG.

      Okay, let’s call it a day for this conversation. I have really enjoyed it.

    8. Nick G

      “ I still think there is a source of all that exists. If there were no source of all that exists, then nothing would exist.”

      Seems plausible. Science will have to advance quite a bit to help us figure that out. For the moment I’m happy to leave it to theoretical scientists to work on effing the ineffable. OTOH, I don’t buy the idea that there are important elements of the world that humans can’t understand – I think there’s no good reason to think we won’t get there eventually.

      And that, I think, means that we’ll find a “natural” explanation. I think that’s the difference between the natural and the supernatural – if we can understand it, it’s natural.

      Think of magnetism. It’s action at a distance. It’s invisible. You can put your hand or body through it – it can be reasonably be described as intangible and not “material”. But…we understand it, and the laws that govern it, and so it’s natural.

      Yes, this has been fun – talk to you later!

    9. Alimbiquated

      Nick,
      The New Testament is not 2000 years old. The canon was formalized in the late fourth century.

      Also it has had some imaginative be editing and translating since then. One of the most famous lines, “Gives this day our daily bread” was invented in the 16th century by Martin Luther. The Greek says something like “supernatural bread”, but Martin Luther thought that would be too confusing, so he fixed it.

    10. Andre The Giant

      The bible was written by many different authors. That is why it is so incoherent.

      Humans didn’t have Microsoft Word back then.

      Fallible scribes made copies, made mistakes and changed things on purpose to fit their Agenda.

      Misquoting Jesus: The story of who changed the Bible and why.

      https://www.amazon.com.au/Misquoting-Jesus-Story-Behind-Changed/dp/0060859512/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3A1OF1GB2ZNIB&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.02MSrCkBojQLUxpY7zF08ns0kVSJXnFXbUaCVv8UPI2MHwspp4SzDiOw-TsMlzgnXxYhD6NVf3tzWAqtJZeioKWX_YOladVA0_jLM7-YiSSabz8_lSYDgthqt348RxCAKHIzQJAXUXS0UMfd3ojoOocF9HqJcT4uUm-gdXrlM_EjbunBXh60HbZdpqF-mpG1UJLNnuW5cIuqR2TvdanuJLPeR_LyoIQ3vlUIC8P36UGOPVZX8DhQn7cD3jKOr0JB-Wz4yyAxzlmryk3z_Gl6Cr5Lo3OoG0bxQubnX5o5Hmg.5OrSHe764TOzGkrKENVWo3-xFLcIWUuMOMsg9IasTA0&dib_tag=se&keywords=misquoting+jesus+bart+ehrman&qid=1775108839&sprefix=misqutoing+jesus+bart+ehrman%2Caps%2C346&sr=8-1

      Jesus didn’t believe in Heaven or Hell. Those were made up by Greek Philosphers.

      Jesus was an apocalypticist. And a false prophet.

      His followers realised he got it wrong and changed the story.

      See Bart Ehrman…..UNC chapel hill .

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctC1s55TeQQ

  32. DC

    Brent at about $119/b see chart linked below from 11 AM US ET on March 31, 2026.

    Seems Trump wants to leave with Hormuz closed and leave it to others to fix the problem the US has created. This would be quite a big TACO, the US seems to have dug a hole and keeps digging, maybe ladders would work.

    brent_crude-2026-03-31

    Reply
    1. LeeG

      DC, given the damage in the gulf nations and slew of other issues restricting traffic for a month or two would it be reasonable to expect week to week averages above $150 into the summer or is that too much reading of tea leaves?

    2. Ralph

      I do not know how much the regular posters here read or watch news channels of political commentators from other Western nations, but I think I can confidently say that almost the entire Western world views Trump’s second term as the worst geopolitical disaster to hit the whole world since WW2. The more the implications of the coming energy , food and other resources crisis sinks in, the more people realise that Trump has singlehandedly put the entire globe into a deepening depression, with global trade thrown so out of balance that entire countries will be facing famine, entire economies will collapse, and I fear secondary resource wars will break out. Trump is now saying, because Europe did not jump quickly enough in support of his illegal war, he is thinking of walking away and letting Iran keep geopolitical control of the Strait permanently. Trump’s global legacy is already set in stone. All he could do now to make it worse would be to try to send in ground troops, and provoke Iran into destroying so much energy and water infrastructure in the Gulf that the 13 million bpde oil and gas decline becomes permanent. A10 ground attack warthogs have already landed in the UK en route to the Gulf.

    3. Hickory

      True Ralph.
      There are no good options for the US. Never have been any for Israel.
      In one case optional, in the other case- do or die.

    4. DC

      LeeG,

      That might be a good guess, but trying to anticipate the old fool’s next move is difficult.

      Let’s say Trump decides against a ground invasion and simply walks away (I doubt he does this), then it depends on how quickly an agreement is reached by the World with Iran and how quickly oil resumes flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

      The best case scenario is that such an agreement is reached quickly and oil starts to flow, but Iran may hold out for a while and flex its muscle having effectively defeated the US in a strategic sense. In that case $150/b for June until September or perhaps longer is possible.

  33. Ovi

    US January Oil Production Down 410 kb/d

    Biggest declines are in NM and Texas due to severe weather.

    A US

    Reply
    1. gerryf

      Your chart shows an interesting benchmark. Current C+C production is where it was about 3 years ago.

    2. Ovi

      Gerry

      There should be a bounce back in February of close to 200 kb/d. Not sure if the weather event went in February.

  34. Schinzy

    The longer Operation Epstein Fury drags on, the more damage will be done to Gulf infrastructure and the longer it will take to get things back online. There are many soft targets in the Gulf which cannot be defended. I think most Gulf countries depend on desalination for more than 70% of their water. Iran gets 10% of its water from desalination. Secretary of war crimes Hegseth is completely incompetent. His rhetoric is creating levels of conscientious objectors in the military far greater than at any time in the last 25 years..

    Reply
  35. Hickory

    If Trump walks away it will leave the Arab Gulf nations at the whim of Iran to transit the SOH ( and to get incoming cargo shipments of food, etc). I suspect the oil importing nations reliant on Gulf oil/gas (as well as fertilizer, aluminum, etc) will collectively make a deal with Iran, paying a toll and defacto ceding sovereignty of the straight to Iran.
    The Arab Gulf nations will have to bite their tongue and play along in order to participate in the export/import market. “Arab Gulf countries (GCC) import approximately 85% to 90% of their total food consumption due to arid climates and limited agricultural resources. This high dependency includes roughly 90% of cereals, 100% of rice, and 60% of meat, with significant reliance on international shipping routes for imports.”

    Do the European countries and Australia join the oil/gas/fertilizer/aluminum buyers consortium?
    How will all of these countries feel about Trumps brilliant escapade?

    I suspect Israels days are numbered once Iran has a chance to rebuild offensive capability.

    Reply
    1. Nick G

      Yeah, if Trump claims victory and walks away, it will be the absolute worst of all worlds: the old regime will be strengthened, their blaming the US will be vindicated, they will have every reason to pursue nuclear weapons; and every reason to take revenge on the US, Israel and the Gulf nations.

      And yet…there’s no indication that a true US victory is possible. Against a determined country the only way to win is long-term total war with near-genocidal results, and there’s no indication that the US public is ready to support that.

      The sad thing is that this president created this mess in the first place – in his first term he killed the Iran treaty that was greatly slowing down the development of nuclear weapons in Iran.

      Now his only rational move is to claim victory and leave. Most people woiuld see it for the TACO that it would be, and it would leave things much worse, but…it’s the only rational choice. Is this president sufficiently rational? We’ll see…

    2. Iron Mike

      If the U.S leaves in this state, i guarantee you, the Iranian regime will pursue nuclear weapons as their first objective. Apart from declaring victory and showboating.

      Don’t think Israel will be too happy if the U.S pulls out without effective regime change.

      I wonder how hard they will lobby to try to get the U.S back into the conflict.

    3. Hickory

      On lobbying- as hard as they can, but they will find a growing crowd of deaf ears. This escapade could mark the beginning of the end. They will not go gently into the night.

      A defeated Trump will be angry, and will find other targets to blame or to lash out at. Trying to restrict voting is a prelude to his next moves.

  36. gerry maddoux

    To keep a level head, I thoroughly recommend reading “The Art of War.” I am not a warrior. I am also not too pleased with our president’s messaging. However, he was faced with a very difficult conundrum: what to do with a country screaming death to America while only a few days away (according to Wikoff, whom I think is honest) from a nuclear weapon. So, under his direction, the United States joined Israel in an all-out air assault on Iran, giving them multiple chances to give up the nuclear material and the bombing would stop. Reading many of these posts, I can’t figure out what you fellows believe or don’t believe: that Iran had actually accumulated enough purified uranium to make Israel or parts of America radioactive, or that NATO is so impotent that they won’t help open the Strait of Hormuz, or it’s an awful thing to pretend to do the TACO thing, or if you just hate Trump so much you have to rip him no matter what. The naive comment above that the Obama non-proliferation “treaty” through payola was working would be laughable if it hadn’t been written so sincerely by a man who surely must have majored in how to read a book in college.

    As a lifelong student of oil and gas, I can give you an absolute truth: the Strait of Hormuz is going to be opened as an international waterway. I don’t know exactly how or when, just that it will be. The UAE is a much wealthier country than Iran and they have a lot of extra-special Murban crude to export. It is the cat’s meow for refining into aviation fuel. Qatar has massive amounts of LNG which needs to get to a desperate Eurasian market. Kuwait and Bahrain have oil to sell, and Iraq is finally coming on with a very respectable volume of crude to export. And then, of course, there’s the big Kahuna: the KSA, which has an east-west pipeline capable of handling up to seven mbopd, though their loading only can handle five mbopd, inside the Red Sea–and Iran through the Houthie rebels in Yemen is even threatening that. This Iran is one mean son-of-a-bitch, folks, just accept that. They are even trying to claim Beirut using Hezbollah proxies. They are destructive and expansionistic and full of hate for the Israelis and Americans, and anyone else who gets in their way. Try cheering for our side for once: Israel and the U.S. are fighting the Evil Empire–the craziest set of mullahs ever to preach a bastardized offshoot of Islam.

    Most, but not all, of the above notes seem to take delight in elaborating what a stupid person the president is, how hated by the Europeans, and how this assault was so poorly thought out. While I’m no fan, I don’t honestly think the man had a cogent alternative: Iran was getting ready to do nuclear evil. I personally think the president has good advisors. The guy is a world class fabulist: he often says a barrage of outrageous things to get everyone’s attention off what’s really going to happen. So when he says he is going to leave the Strait to others, but has a third carrier group heading for the Arabian Sea, you might want to settle in for a chapter from “The Art of War.”

    The Strait of Hormuz is a quirk of geology. The spear now known as the Musandam Peninsula (the tip of which is owned by the Oman Enclave) is comprised of ophiolite, dense igneous rock scooped up from the mantle of the earth by subduction. When the Arabian tectonic plate rammed into the softer Eurasian plate, it pierced the coastline of what would become Iran, creating that dramatic indentation. At the juncture of the docking of the two plates, there was an area of subsidence of about 300 feet. Upon the end of the last Ice Age, water came in from the Arabian Sea until it created the Persian Gulf, the weird, narrow kink known as the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. This was an entirely geologic event, unaltered by man. Kharg Island was equally geologic: it is a curious, sedimentary buildup of limestone. The Iranians are trying to equate the naturally occurring Gulf to the Suez Canal Authority capable of taxing transit vessels because a great deal of dredging was performed to make it a waterway through Egypt. These are vastly different waterways, not remotely comparable. The Gulf is not taxable. Period. Iran would take in billions a year; I see their motive; it’s just not viable.

    Logic dictates that oil and gas rich Iraq, Kuwait, tiny Bahrain, the UAE, Oman, and the KSA, along with their international customers, are not going to pay a ransom each time a load of crude or LNG or fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz. It’s just not going to happen. It’s international water, written down in express language as a free transit for commerce. The UAE is encouraging the U.S. to occupy Abu Musa, for goodness sakes, which is rightfully a sovereign island belonging to the UAE but was purloined by Iran for its own potential use for the last half century. Abu Musa is strategic: right at the top of the waterway leading into the Strait of Hormuz; a base on Abu Musa would act as “harbor master” for the Strait. Have a little faith. Something like 25% of the world’s critical energy for commerce, growing of food, and building of computer chips traverses this waterway. If everyone pays a tariff to traverse an international waterway to participate in necessary worldwide commerce there would result a profound economic shock that would be devastating to the whole world. It is very hard to think that the countries that depend on the Gulf are going to allow it to be hijacked by some pissant country that has been bombed to smithereens for the last month.

    The Strait of Hormuz will be opened, and the international waters will remain free waters for commerce. Unfortunately, it may only result after Iran has been decimated. I strongly suggest that you fellows hiding behind aliases, involved in poorly written literary gang warfare against the United States, examine your souls for the true reason you’re such anti-American devotees, cowardly cheering for the other side just so you’ll feel urbane.

    Reply
    1. LeeG

      Gerry, your argument rests on the imminence of a nuclear threat. It wasn’t there. Review ultra MAGA Joe Kent’sresignation letter. Donald ripped up the JCPOA and showed the US to be a dishonest and unreliable negotiator. Framing this predicament as though “we had no choice!” is bs. Right up there with”Saddam made us do it!”.

      The strait will eventually open and the damage Donald has made will be cleaned up by others. That is his legacy. A trust fund baby who leaves a mess for others to clean up. Some of whom are what he calls losers.

      Btw Witkoff is a real estate attorney/CEO. He’s not a diplomat. You might consider recalibrating his standing as an authority on Iran’s nuclear programs.

      https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/john-kelly-confirms-trump-privately-disparaged-us-service-members-vete-rcna118543

    2. DC

      Gerry,

      Reasonable people can have different opinions. If it was easy to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, Trump would have done it. Most intelligence analysts do not think that Iran was close to obtaining a nuclear weapon. So the premise for starting the war (an imminent threat of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon) is likely false.

      Is the World safer with the current Iranian regime? Most would say no. If Trump does what he has claimed and ends the War in 2 to 3 weeks (likely a lie), the World is not likely to be safer.

      The problem is that Trump has made the World less safe. Wishing this was not so, does not make it so.

      I agree that the Strait is likely to be reopened, but probably through negotiation rather than by force.

      It is the way the problem should have been addressed at the start, and by diplomats rather than real estate developers.

    3. Nick G

      “Wikof” (aka Witkof) may possibly be honest, but if so then he’s deeply incompetent.

      It’s always hard to tell whether bad behavior is malicious or imcompetent, but Witkof failed dramatically with negotiations with Putin about Ukraine.

      It’s never clear whether this president is fooled by Putin or just likes to give Putin what he wants. But Witkof came away from his negotiations with Putin with a proposal that was supposed to be a balanced basis for further negotiations but was just Putin’s wishlist. It was embarrrasing – some of the language in the document was clearly translated directly from Russian. It had to be quickly repudiated, it embarrassed the president, and wasted everyone’s time.

      Witkof has no academic training or personal or professional experience with European or M.E. diplomacy. It’s not reasonable to expect him to be competent here.

      Sadly, this is this presidents MO: loyalty over competence.

      ———————————————

      Nobody here hates the US. No one wants it to fail. We just want it to pursue good, valuable, realistic goals, and do that in a competent way.

      That’s not what we’re seeing.

  37. gerry maddoux

    To the above, I don’t really care who cleans it up and keeps the Gulf open. As it turns out, there is objective evidence that Iran had the capability to shoot ballistic missiles that would reach Diego Garcia. If they would reach DG, they would also reach Paris and London, and Israel, and also perhaps the place where you live. NATO has skated on their defense funding so long they take a lecture on it as a horrible affront. They are so prissy about playing it by the books that they won’t even do anything about helping keep nuclear out of the hands of the people who would eventually blow them up. I am not in government, but I’m pretty close to people who are, and there was no way in hell the Obama payoff was working, so you can take that off your list of supposed grievances. All I’m saying is, America and Israel were faced with coming nuclear attack, and they chose to strike preemptively. And now the Iranians are holding the whole world hostage over a narrow body of water, and all of you pinkos are blaming the United States and Israel. What a goddamn sham this site has become. Dennis, you need to take a little control over this thing or it’s going to be featuring the hammer and sickle. Holy shit, this is still the United States of America, and your are an American, and if you keep letting all of these whackos spew their hatred on here you’re going to lose any credibility you once had. I’m serious. These pages are bleeding pink!

    Reply
    1. DC

      Gerry,

      Who has benefited most from the attack on Iran? Some would argue it is Russia. Perhaps you are a fan of Putin, I am not.

      Reasonable people can see things differently. Three different Republican presidents did not think it wise to engage in a war with Iran. The JCPOA is viewed differently by many than your view. It was much better than what Trump has unleashed in my opinion.

      There can be different opinions on what is best for the United States and for Europe, I allow those opinions to be expressed freely.

    2. LeeG

      non-oil comment

      Gerry, once you start name calling people you are arguing with it suggests you don’t have confidence in your argument.
      It’s 2026 and ballistic missiles are not cutting edge tech. nor are they a significant weapon like a nuclear weapon. Ballistic missiles are 1960’s weapons. Throw a rock or shoot a bullet, it goes on a ballistic arc. Ukraine utilizing consumer drones then custom drones should clue you in that ballistic missiles aren’t some unique powerful tech that the natives finally got their hands on and now we’re vulnerable. Heck people are using ground cell systems and communication satellites to guide drones w/o gps. A few thousand $35k drones are a much greater threat than a few dozen IRBMs blasting through expensive defense systems. That $750 million US AWACS plane destroyed at the Saudi airforce base didn’t require a super duper ballistic missile to hit it point blank.
      The propaganda game in 2002 to stir fears up about Iraq’s “WMD” program relied on similar fetishization of old military tech we’ve invested heavily in. Again Iran was not an imminent threat nor was it weeks from a nuke. The whole concept of “pre-empting” a future attack rests on the ability to predict the future and you have to admit few are good at that. The pre-emption argument given by our SoS Rubio was that Iran was going to respond to Israel’s attack so we had to stop them. Yeah, Iran would respond to an attack and they didn’t use nukes because it would be suicide but more importantly they didn’t have any.

      Lastly your characterization of people as pinkos is just plain weird and dated. It might have worked in the 60’s as an insult but it’s just nonsensical now.

    3. Hickory

      hey Gerry,
      please realize that just because people (including many republicans, and much of the world) see trump as basically an incompetent juvenile delinquent doesn’t mean that we (they) don’t have aspirations for a healthy America. And I think most in the world would like to see the fundamentalist government in Iran replaced by a secular democracy. Certainly I would. And I would hope that such a country would give up the Islamic version of Crusade against Israel.
      Despite those goals that you and I share, I am deeply disappointed in the naive performance of this administration. It doesn’t take a genius to foresee the severe negative consequences of the tactics deployed. We have been watching amateur hour here, staking our international reputation on it. The damage to our countries reputation is 5/5. Loss of respect, loss of trust, loss of ally relations, loss of economic standing. Many countries who we had cultivated as friends since ww2 are suffering badly for our blunder.
      I know it must be hard for to swallow these things, as a die hard trump advocate.
      Maybe time to follow John McCains advice- “I will always put country over party”.

    4. Hickory

      If we had been serious and competent about this Iran ‘project’ we would have gathered enough maritime assets at the mouth of gulf to stop all shipping to and fro Iranian ports, we would stick to any ultimatum that we (carefully) issued, we would have given a heads up to any allies that we expected would consider joining in the ‘project’, we would have given warning to all countries that were within range of Iran pushback so that they could prepare for bombardment and food shortages. And we would have listened to experts who knew about the country (rather than just gung ho yes men).
      We would have known that they wouldn’t just lay down any more than the US would lay down if they were at our gates. In fact, we would have know that they have a much stronger streak of vehement fanaticism than we do.
      We have a fool at the lead.

      ‘All the kings horses and all the kings men couldn’t fix what Trumpty Dumpty had broken.’

  38. T HILL

    I don’t know why you folks push back so much. Why it was only a couple of weeks ago that we were advised to be “calm” and “rejoice” regarding the Iran war. That WTI would be back to $75 by 3/26, that the Iranian nuclear threat had already been eliminated and that “many countries will come forward to see to a welcoming, wide-open Strait of Hormuz”. C’mon, get with the program and “have a bit of optimism!”

    Seriously though, why bother? Really. A good friend teaches math and can’t get past thinking that if they just explain the facts to the anti-vaxxers, climate change deniers, flat earthers, etc. then surely they will come around. Evidence and logic regularly fall short. Motivated reasoning, tribalism, social identify, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias and other factors resist contradictory facts for many.

    Above ground factors will continue to drive many aspects of our energy future.

    Reply
    1. Nick G

      It’s a good question.

      First of all, very often you’re not really debating for the benefit of the person who’s trading arguments with you – it’s more for the “lurkers”. There are probably 20x as many people reading but not writing.

      Sometimes you debate things with people who can’t bring themselves to concede a point, but they go back and think about for a while and come around. Very often you have to not insist on taking credit for an idea, or a helpful fact.

      Sometimes it’s helpful to discuss these things with people who mostly agree with you, but differ on fine points. You can develop a consensus relatively easily.

      Sometimes it’s just a useful exercise to articulate one’s ideas: look up relevant background and fine tune one’s thinking, and write it out.

  39. SRSrocco

    To Whom It May Concern… or Not Concern

    What an embarrassing Presidential Address to the Nation on the Iran War.

    If I had a Silver Dollar for everyone I know who voted for the current President and now has totally rejected him and his policies… I would have a Lot of Money.

    Lastly, for those who believe the SPIN about the Iran War, let’s see how truthful that is over the next 2-3+ weeks as the IEA is forecasting the Oil Loss in April will likely be Double that of March:

    Middle East crisis worse than the 1970s oil shocks and 2022 Russian gas disruption combined,’ IEA chief Birol warns

    ET OnlineLast Updated: Apr 01, 2026, 04:43:00 PM IST

    The world is witnessing unprecedented turmoil in energy markets as tensions in the Middle East escalate beyond previous oil crises. With over 12 million barrels of oil gone, jet fuel and diesel shortages are currently plaguing Asia and are anticipated to spill over into Europe shortly.

    Global energy markets are under severe strain as disruptions in the Middle East intensify, with impacts now exceeding the combined severity of the oil shocks of the 1970s and the 2022 loss of Russian gas supplies, according to Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency.

    The assessment comes amid continued damage to energy infrastructure across the Middle East, where multiple facilities have been affected, and operational capacity has been disrupted. “Some 40 key energy assets have been damaged in the Middle East,” he added.

    The fallout is already being felt in global supply balances, with significant volumes of crude removed from the market.

    Further tightening is expected in the near term as supply losses deepen, with projections indicating a worsening situation in the coming weeks.  “Oil loss in April is expected to be twice as high as in March.”
    —————————-

    GOD HATH A SENSE OF HUMOR…

    steve

    Reply
    1. LeeG

      Boy howdy she does.

      I’m wondering what kind of policy changes comes out of this mess for oil use. US and the world. Domestically don’t think a surge in EV sales will be as significant as a decline in light truck, big suv sales.

  40. Nick G

    So, the president laid out a timeline for leaving. I don’t remember Eisenhower ever giving a timeline for withdrawing from Europe during WWII….until, of course, Germany officially surrendered and the US and Russia had clearly won.

    This president did the same thing with Afghanistan: at the end of his first term he laid out a withdrawal timeline in an agreement with the Taliban. The Taliban took that as a signal that they should hold out until the withdrawal when they could take over. And that’s what they did. After 20 years, they won.

    So, seems likely the Iranians are 1) not believing this timeline, and 2) hoping it actually happens, as it would mean they won by surviving.

    Reply
  41. SRSrocco

    THE GODFATHER: “Tonight… Luca Brasi Sleeps With The Fishes”

    If you remember the classic Godfather scene where Vito Corleone’s (The Godfather) personal enforcer was choked to death and dumped in the sea… it seems as if we have a similar situation taking place around the world in the Fishing Industry.

    Fuel Surge Shuts Down Half of Thailand’s Fishing Fleet

    Tuesday, March 31, 4:56

    The surge in crude oil prices is dealing a heavy blow to Thailand’s fishing industry. More than half of the country’s fishing vessels have been forced to suspend operations.

    A fishing port in Samut Sakhon Province produces one of the country’s largest hauls. But fuel prices have more than doubled since February and many businesses are now losing money on fishing operations. Over 100 of the 300 fishing boats there are now docked.
    ———————-

    If we think the Sky-High Fuel Prices are only affecting the Thai Fishing Industry…. THINK AGAIN…

    According to Google Gemini, info from the NationalFisherman.com:

    Global Fleet Disruptions:

    Fishing operations across multiple continents have reached a breaking point due to diesel costs making trips unprofitable:

    Southeast Asia: In Cambodia, approximately one-third of the fishing fleet in Preah Sihanouk province has stopped operations. Vietnam is facing similar struggles, with fuel costs for single trips nearly doubling, leaving many fishermen undecided on whether to sail.

    Europe: The Netherlands has seen roughly half of its fishing fleet idled as fuel bills now equal or exceed the total value of the catch. Ireland’s offshore and inshore fleets face potential grounding within weeks without government intervention.

    North America: U.S. shrimpers in the Gulf of Mexico report diesel costs for 30-day trips jumping by $20,000 compared to the previous year, erasing profit margins. In Maine, lobstermen are scaling back trips as diesel prices hover between $5 and $6 per gallon.

    East Asia: Distant-water fleets from Japan and South Korea are being “battered” by the price spike, which has reached critical levels for their long-range operations.

    NationalFisherman.com
    —————————-

    With Sec of the Dept of War, Pete Hegseth now saying, “The USA is going to Bomb Iran back to the Stone Age,” along with the President’s Address to the Nation last night…

    It seems as if the markets didn’t like what they heard…

    WTIC = +11%
    BRENT = +7.7%

    Know what they say… STUPID IS… STUPID DOES.

    steve

    Reply
    1. Coffeeguyzz

      Steve,

      Quick follow-up on the secondary/tertiary effects of the current oil/gas supply crisis …
      As per ZeroHedge article today referring to the wave of force majeurs amongst MEG and PTA producers (petchem precursors for a wide array of products, including food packaging), expect both a sharp price increase and ensuing shortages in items such as beef and chicken as the production of same crucially relies upon plastic wrappings.
      The ripple effects (upstream and downstream) are scarcely imaginable.

      The ongoing input of several esteemed commentators above offers numerous insights on so many levels … sourcing of information that forms world views being front and center on display here. (Kudos to Dennis for enabling robust, conflicting perspectives to be aired.)
      When uber patriots such as highly decorated former Green Beret officer Joe Kent vociferously speak out against current US policies, questioning loyalty cannot be raised in any serious discussions.

      No, the abject failure of Legacy Media – accross the entire political spectrum – is on full display to the millions of global observers who daily ‘tune in’ to sites such as Judge Napolitano, Lt. Colonel Dan Davis, Glen Driesen and several others who regularly offer platforms to HIGHLY experienced/informed guests to express their perspectives on these – literally existential – matters.

      We ALL want peace.
      We ALL want a just world.
      We ALL want a better future for our families.

      Recognizing the Truth is an absolute basic first step.

    2. SRSrocco

      Coffeeguyzz,

      Excellent comment and last sentence.

      What a mess we are in…

      steve

  42. Ovi

    WTI More Expensive then Brent

    What has flipped the script? What did T say that made WTI more expensive. See attached picture.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/oil-prices-today-wti-brent-trump-speech-iran-war-.html

    A WTI

    Reply
  43. Hickory

    2025 Scorecard-
    Nuclear powerplants commissioned globally = “In 2025, four new nuclear reactors were connected to the grid worldwide, contributing a total capacity of 4.4 GW. These new, operational reactors were commissioned in China (two), India (one), and Russia (one).
    4.4 GW with a very generous capacity factor of 90% equates to 4 GW equivalent

    Global Renewable power capacity increased by 692 GW, 97% of which was wind and solar.
    692 with a very conservative capacity factor of 20% equates to 138 GW equivalent

    The gap in new production capacity of these two categories of energy is widening quickly, primarily because of lower cost, dramatically lower project financial risk, much quicker planning, dramatically lower constraints on location, and dramatically quicker deployment times.

    Reply
    1. SRSrocco

      Hickory,

      Interestingly… while China has indeed ramped up its Solar & Wind Buildout, it has come at a Huge Cost… record curtailment.

      The idea that China will build enough Batteries or whatever to store this power is a BOONDOGGLE of epic proportions, as the COST is just too high when these Batteries have to be replaced every 7-10 years.

      Also, in Bloomberg’s recent article: China’s Five-Year Plan Downplays Solar After Rapid Deployment

      It says that China’s Solar Boom Could Be Heading for Bust This Year.

      After annual Solar Capacity additions increased from 220 GW in 2023, 275 GW in 2024, and a record 315 GW in 2025… the forecast for 2026 is 175 GW.

      The world is burning a massive amount of Fossil Fuels to make a low-quality, intermittent, temporary energy supply, which will come back to bite us hard in the next decade as the Wind Turbines and Solar Panels’ Depreciation KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR.

      steve

    2. Nick G

      Steve,

      I think you’ve got the wrong idea about curtailment.

      Curtailment is perfectly normal: ideally zero-marginal-cost generation will be maximized, but often a relatively small amount is the simplest way to deal with a mismatch between load and supply. Here’s an article about it. It’s a bit old, but I think it clarifies the magnitude of the issue.

      https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960148121005619

      Now, the current level in 2025 is only 6.6%. That’s not perfect, but it’s pretty insignificant.

      “ In the first half of 2025, the curtailment rate for solar power reached 6.6%, up from 3.9% during the same period of 2024.”

      https://www.power-technology.com/news/china-renewable-energy-curtailment/?utm_source=&utm_medium=21-393423&utm_campaign=recommended-articles-pi

      So, think about it: if coal or natural gas have a capacity factor of 55%, that means they have curtailment of 45%!

      Not using all of a generation resource is pretty normal. As solar and wind become larger, occasional curtailment will happen more and more. If they are overbuilt, as is normal in a grid (the US grid is about 150% larger than the average load), it will happen more….and…that’s ok.

    3. Alimbiquated

      If you think curtailment is a problem, wait ill you hear bout gas flaring.

      The difference is that battery price keeps falling, but gas cylinder prices don’t.

    4. SRSrocco

      Nick G,

      I hear what you are saying. However, you may be confusing “Curtailment” with “Capacity Factor.”

      For example, China’s Solar Capacity Factor is a meager ~14% vs. 23-24% for the United States. Thus, the massive China Solar buildout has come at a BIG COST… a 10% lower capacity factor than the United States. Basically, China’s Solar provides power for only 14% of the day, or an average of 3.36 hours a day, while the U.S. Solar Industry provides energy close to 6 hours a day.

      Now, while China’s Wind Capacity Factor of 22% is better than its Solar at 14%, this is still much lower than China’s Coal Industry’s Capacity Factor of 48%.

      Regardless… the big problem going forward will be the massive Depreciation coming in the next decade due to the massive Solar & Wind Buildout over the past 10-15 years.

      Remember… Wind Turbines really last only 10 years… some say 15 years, but this is with expensive maintenance, which many Utility companies tend to ignore.

      When the World heads over the NET ENERGY CLIFF circa 2030 (which the timeline may have been sped up due to the Iran War), the ability to manufacture wind and solar just to repower what is already there, we won’t have enough of the PROFITABLE NET ENERGY to do so.

      steve

    5. Nick G

      Steve,

      No, I’m clear about the difference between capacity factor (CF) and curtailment. Curtailment can be described as a reduction in CF due to a lack of need for power. It can happen for many reasons, and isn’t necessarily a large problem, as it’s often helpful to have spare capacity available.

      It’s helpful to realize that nuclear has the same dynamic, and its CF is currently maximized in the US because it’s only 20% of the grid’s electricity. If it was substantially higher, like it is in France, there would be a great deal of curtailment, and very likely no one would think it was a problem. (The French nuclear CF is very roughly 70% due to load following, while the US nuclear CF is about 90%)

      Now, why is China’s CF lower than the US? Mostly because they’ve been emphasizing very local solar, IOW roughly half is on rooftops. Rooftop solar has higher direct costs and tends to have lower CF because it’s usually on a fixed axis, rather than tracking the sun. But…it needs no transmission and distribution, which lowers indirect costs, and the lack of tracking reduces direct costs. It’s decentralized, which make it secure from sabotage or attack (think of Russian attacks on Ukrainian generation, or the US threatening Iranian generation). It has a unique value.

      ———————————————————————-

      Could you give us your source for the idea that wind turbines only last 10-15 years?

    6. Alimbiquated

      I have spent the last two years working on a planning application for a large wind farm company (among other things). They plan 40 year life for their wind turbines. That includes maintenance, obviously, but 15 years is simply a lie.

    7. SRSrocco

      Nick G & Alimbiquated,

      Just like with the AI Salesmen and the Tight Oil Salesmen, the Wind Power Salesmen continue to provide unrealistic long lifespans of 20-25+ years, when in fact, the economic lifespan is 7-10 years. Often, older wind turbines are repowered with larger ones to more easily hide the fact.

      However, Dr Gordon Hughes is a Professor of Economics at the University of Edinburgh, did an excellent study on “The Performance On Wind Turbines In the UK and Denmark.” While this study was done in 2012, the economics HAVE NOT IMPROVED… but have actually worsened as larger and larger Wind Turbines 3-5 MW are breaking down faster than the older… smaller wind turbines.

      https://www.ref.org.uk/attachments/article/280/ref.hughes.19.12.12.pdf

      People are free to believe what they want, but there is a reason people in Ireland pay the highest electricity prices in Europe: their high percentage of Wind Power.

      steve

    8. Hickory

      Steve- I figure that countries who are putting in a lot of intermittent solar and wind will eventually find a level of deployment that works well for them, economically. A different answer for each depending on what other sources of reliable energy they have access to. For some countries the number will be 0%, and for other countries it will 80%.
      I don’t think any country has come close to saturation, but I don’t follow the country breakdown on electrical generation other than sporadically.
      China had up to 6-7% curtailment 2025, and this is part of the reason (incentive) why their battery industry is so far out in front on technology, manufacturing, and price than the rest of the world. They have completed 3 laps in the race while no other country has even completed one yet.

      Here is a good source of data- https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-electricity-solar

      An interesting country to watch, for example, is sunny Australia. As of 2024 18% of electrical generation was from PV. When they halt new deployment it will give an indication of what penetration level is optimal for a sunny country with lots of space, lots of coal and nat gas.

    9. Nick G

      Steve,

      This is highly unrealistic. Surely you know that there is a broad consensus in the world scientific and engineering communities that wind and solar are both viable, competitive and better than fossil fuels. Surely you know that sophisticated countries with high levels of technical competence, like Germany and China, are betting their future on them.

      You really should check your basic assumptions – you shouldn’t believe silly stuff like this article.

      Just for the heck of it, here are several articles that rebut that very dated, unrealistic analysis:

      “Wind turbines are good value for money, finds study

      Imperial College gives ‘thumbs up’ to windfarm investment and debunks previous study

      Research published by Imperial College London has revealed that wind turbines installed in the UK will operate at least to their designed lifespan and perform as well as gas turbines.

      The results of the study show that 4,246 wind turbines installed in the UK will operate effectively for at least 25 years, with more recently installed turbines running past that.

      The results are contrary to a previous study published by the Renewable Energy Foundation (REF) in December 2012, produced by Dr Gordon Hughes, professor of economics at the University of Edinburgh.

      Professor Hughes’ study suggested that after just ten years the electricity output from wind turbines would decline by a third, making them uneconomic to run and necessitating their replacement with new machines. The research stoked debate about whether wind turbines have a more limited shelf-life than other energy technologies.

      According to Imperial College London, the REF study used a statistical model based on average estimates of nationwide wind speeds to determine the wear and tear on the UK’s windfarm infrastructure.

      However, researchers from Imperial College Business School have improved the study by using local wind speed data obtained from Nasa and data on large gas turbines used in Combined Cycle Gas Turbine power stations. The Nasa data was collected over a 20-year period and measures the wind speed at the exact site of each onshore windfarm in the UK.”

      https://www.imeche.org/news/news-article/wind-turbines-are-good-value-for-money-finds-study
      ——————————————

      “It was the proud boast of an econometrician I knew that he could ‘prove’ anything using statistics.
      He would have loved Gordon Hughes’ 2012 paper on the effect of age on the output of wind turbines. Hughes produced figures suggesting that the typical electricity generation of a UK onshore turbine falls sharply ever year of its life. He says the average load factor of a new wind farm starts at about 25% and is down to below 5% within scarcely more than a decade.
      Econometrician Hughes never seemed to talk to any operators of wind farms, who would have corrected his wild statistics. Nor did his paper actually provide us with the output figures from any individual turbines. Nevertheless, this didn’t stop his extraordinary analysis from getting substantial coverage. Yesterday Professor David MacKay, chief scientist at DECC, weighed in against Hughes’ conclusions. For those whose eyes start going round in circles when faced with equations like those in MacKay’s short article, let me provide one chart from Hughes’ paper which might help convince you that wind turbines don’t actually age faster than domestic cats.”

      https://medium.abundanceinvestment.com/another-nail-in-the-coffin-of-econometrics-gordon-hughes-and-the-abuse-of-statistics-526e46558f13?gi=a481aed75023

  44. Ovi

    An Update to January US Oil Production has been Posted.

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/weather-drops-us-january-oil-production

    Reply
  45. Hickory

    For a go-getter who wants some control over their energy cost/supply and transport costs here is an example of what you can do. Never before has someone been able to harness 760 hp of transport power (GMC Sierra EV) without purchasing fuel from someone else.

    https://electrek.co/2026/04/03/home-solar-battery-ev-one-gmc-sierra-ev-driver-shares-their-experience/

    -⛽ Gas (24 gal at $4/gal): $96 per fill-up.
    -🔌 Public EV (200 kWh at $0.48/kWh): $96.00 per fill-up.
    -🏠 Home EV (PSE at $0.14/kWh): $28.00 per fill-up.
    -☀️ Solar EV (if sized larger correctly for your home): $0.00 (Locked-in independence).

    https://www.gmc.com/electric/sierra-ev

    Reply
    1. Nick G

      Hmmm. 8.3 kWh per gallon. That’s 21% efficiency, which is pretty low even for an ICE.

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