147 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum,”

  1. A new website
    I have just launched a new website with the URL:

    The Fine-Tuned Universe

    There will be a new post every few weeks, more or less. We will discuss the fine-tuned universe and all the evidence that supports it. There will be a comments section where any and all readers their opinions on the subject. Subjects discussed in each post will be:

    The Multiverse

    The Many Worlds Interpretation

    The Double Slit Experiment

    The Implications of The Fine-Tuned Universe. (Is there a purpose?)
    Does it have anything to do with religion? (My opinion, No.)

    I will also invite others with knowledge and opinions on this subject to submit guest posts.

    The double-slit experiment will blow your mind. Richard Feynman once said that the double-slit experiment reveals the central puzzles of quantum mechanics, putting us ‘up against the paradoxes and mysteries and peculiarities of nature.

    Since Feynman made that statement hundreds of new double-slit experiments have been made and the implications are unbelievable.

    Some of the more important posts will later be posted as pages with a URL of their own and comments will not expire.

    Check it out. The Fine-Tuned Universe

  2. So, I’ve been curious about how limits to growth will show up once tipping points are crossed. (I know they’re showing up…I, like most I know, just aren’t FEELING it…yet). In all the various categories: weather, climate, economy, water, air, land, non human living things, ability to get along (social order), energy, health, etc.

    Today it is sunny, 40s, and windy 25-30, gust to 50. Don’t often have this kind of sustained wind. Cedar pollen probably off the charts. My husband has asthma and won’t be going outside. We are both 65, drawing social security and are ‘RSE’ – retired self employed. We have 3 b&bs, which makes being retired possible. Two years ago I bought hammocks for the houses online for $168, each. They are now $274 each. A 63% increase. And unavailable. Postcards from Edgy.

    1. Edgy, I feel that modern society is based upon assumptions of geographical and ecological continuity, assumptions that will no longer be viable in the face of runaway climate change. My WAG is that climate change will impact harvests and create famine. The climate change induced famine will be compounded by the peak oil induced famine. Our species will then encounter a severe population bottleneck; survival of the fittest, whatever that is. Hopefully something nice comes out the other side. If you ever want to ruin a perfectly nice day just Google images for ‘Russian famine’. Photojournalist Kevin Carter is also worth a look if you prefer something more contemporary.
      It’s perhaps worth noting that most of the worlds food is grown in the NH mid latitudes. It is the climate change impacts in the NH mid latitudes that will have the largest impact on harvests.
      Any anthropologist will tell you that people steal before they starve, and that is why the young and the old suffer most in famine; because those who are not too young and not too old outcompete, aka take the food away, from those who are. Anyway, that’s what I’m prepping for 🙂

      “On the weather depends the harvest, on the harvest depends everything” ~ apocryphal

      “Yield volatility is gonna go through the roof”
      Climate Change and Global Food Security: Prof David Battisti
      https://youtu.be/YToMoNPwTFc?t=45m36s

      Embrace the Suck: Verb (Military slang): To consciously accept something that is both extremely unpleasant and unavoidable.

  3. The divergence in the correlation between the FAO food index and a fit based on oil price is as much as it has been since early 2011, and the index itself is now higher than the peak then. That was followed by the Arab spring, this time the disturbances seem a bit more spread out and maybe less obviously associated with bread prices than then (so far).

    1. George thanks for this.
      Question for you-
      I don’t get the implications of the ‘fit’ blue line- Am I correct in thinking that the closer it tracks the Food Index, the greater is the degree of correlation of the Food Index with Oil Price, or other?

      Thank you.

      1. I’m not sure I get the implications really, or if there are enough data points to mean much. However there is a very close relationship between the deflated food price index and the price of oil (better than R = 95% from memory). It’s much closer than the link between the index and anything else like GDP or share price, and might be expected as so much of the energy content in food comes from fossil fuels, and mostly transport costs from oil. The inflation rate (k) that gives the best fit is about 2% and very close to the average deflator that FAO uses based on GDP – i.e. implying there is an overall inflation that affects food price independent of oil price.

        When the index diverges significantly from the correlation it might indicate that something else is impacting food yields, but again there aren’t many data points. Last year there was certainly a lot of indication that weather events had had impacts (e.g. Canadian wheat) and 2010 had Russian crop losses.

        I would have expected social disturbances to be more related to the deflated index (so the actual index would need to get to about 150 to have the same effect as the 130 value in 2011) but we are seeing a lot of issues already some of which have a component from food prices.

        1. Thanks George.
          In addition to oil price, I expect
          Nat Gas pricing to be a big factor in the food price index- Nitrogen fertilizer and food processing
          and of course weather/climate variability as you mentioned.

  4. On the thirteenth I posted this, when the discussion was about our collective failure to deal with problems proactively.

    OFM

    01/13/2022 at 8:30 am

    If you are the bringer of bad news….. you are more or less compelled to sugar coat it……. or else the vast majority of the naked ape audience simply tunes you out.

    With some sugar on it….. well……. most literate people will at least eventually absorb the gist of the message, which helps prepare them for the time when they must face up to reality.

    To which Hickory replied

    OFM truth-
    “If you are the bringer of bad news….. you are more or less compelled to sugar coat it……. or else the vast majority of the naked ape audience simply tunes you out.”

    I am more disturbed by the tendency of just about all discussions of economic issues to resort to the ‘we will grow our way out of the problem’ solution.
    More promises, more debt, more destruction.”

    My turn

    “Hi Hickory,

    I’m with you all the way on this. I find it nearly impossible to even get into a serious discussion of this problem, even with well educated liberals who get it when it comes to the environment and overshoot.

    Their mindset is such that THEIR OWN NECESSARY sugar coating is the eternal growth meme.”

    Now read this and weep.

    https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/01/12/what-happens-when-the-worlds-most-populous-country-starts-to-shrink/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

    In this rather long piece, not a single professional person quoted mentioned ANYTHING at all about the problems associated with continued growth….. nor anything at all about the vast built up accumulated wealth of existing infrastructure that will be left to our descendants.

    The fucking idea that prosperity or wealth should be measured on a per capita basis, rather than a national or gross basis, seems to be utterly foreign to them.

    We’re a lot farther down the rabbit hole than we can even GUESS……. or maybe it’s a rat hole, lol?

    I may be a “cow college” trained hillbilly….. but I don’t have any problem at all seeing how easy it’s going to be for a single child inheriting the accumulated assets not only of his parents, but of his parents GENERATION, even if he DOES have to spend some money looking after them in their old age.

    ASSUMING of course that the population falls off a cliff soon enough.

    1. Capitalism?
      The subject that is rarely brought up.
      It goes, or we go faster.

      1. Capitalism? The subject that is rarely brought up. It goes, or we go faster,

        Oh really? And just what the hell do you propose we replace capitalism with? Communism? Or perhaps fascism?

        It is a lazy’s prognostication who proposes the destruction of something without proposing what you propose to replace it with.

        1. Ron—
          There may not be a solution, in overpopulation and a collapsing ecosystem.
          Communism could be tried (even after 100 years, Dictatorship Of The Proletariat was never achieved, so this was not even tried). Marx was an optimist, as many have pointed out. Not my interest.
          But a system that has to increase production to survive longterm, is destine to collapse.

          Obviously, Steven Pinker has a more complex view than Marx.

          1. If you drop me from 10,000 feet I’ve been told that I drift to the left quite briskly, likely because I care about people more than property. My preference is for a Modified Egalitarian system; Rawls’ Theory of Justice seems a nice place from where to begin policy development.

            Hearing “Both Sides” of the political argument in USA these days seems akin to an argument between Alex Jones and Rachel Maddow. America is a political sewer pipe. But hey, I’m a pessimist.

            My guess is that the pending population bottleneck will select for Unit Cohesion, and on that basis I don’t see the billionaire class nor their sycophants making it through, if indeed very far at all.

          2. I do not see a Communist solution as likely. (Or that any solution is likely).
            A system capable of equitably distributing food in a time of scarcity would have to be instituted before the time of scarcity. Considering that harvests are seasonal and variable, the system would have to be planned and built when sufficient surplus could be hoarded, and the distribution system changed to accommodate the forecast level of scarcity (I do not believe a second, separate system of emergency food distribution is possible: it will become obvious to anyone attempting this that an overhaul of the existing system is the only solution).

            What I think will happen is that efforts will be made when scarcity becomes obvious. This will be too late, and any efforts will be ineffective and/or corrupt.

        2. Communism is a utopia, because it contradicts human nature and implies a responsible labor contribution to the overall production and self-limitation in consumption. Socialism, when the means of large-scale production are public property, is possible with certain restrictions, and as experience has shown, capitalism too, but the social support of citizens leading a parasitic image I consider life to be excessive.

      2. Capitalism encompasses a lot but is at base private ownership of production. It doesn’t rule out, in fact requires regulation to prevent manipulation. For food, the farmer’s share of the cost today is 15%. The other 85% is “marketing.” That split doesn’t count farm goods like grains sold to feed to animals. If you look at just that, 40% of all grain grown is fed to food.

        Now I don’t know if there will need to be regulation to ensure distribution uniform enough to prevent famine due to poverty, but government schemes to ensure people don’t starve seems well within the definition of “capitalism.” As well people in history have figured out how to prepare food rather than open a box or hit “defrost” so we’ll probably figure out how to eliminate some of the “marketing” cost if we have to.

        But at the point where transportation becomes too expensive for even minimally prepared staples, won’t farming once again disperse geographically? Almost 90% of all almonds in the world now come from California’s central valley. There have been some grown there for 100 years but the concentration has only happened in the last 25 years with massive vertical integration and containerized shipping. Once fuel cost rise to the point shipping a couple nuts for a candy bar in Briton is too much, almonds will go back to a backyard tree and the Central valley will diversify, if there is any water.

        Food water and shelter are required but are only a tiny part of our average cost of living today, in the rich world— or would be without our accustomed extravagance. It is hard to imagine any other way than how we are today, but, I think we would be surprised at how much of modern life we think of as necessity would be easily forgotten.

        Says me ;^)

        PS here is a food cost breakdown link
        https://blog.aghires.com/80-worlds-almonds-come-california/

        1. Andrew Nikoforuk reckons any system that continues to glorify technology would face basically the same issues even if their exact manifestation would be slightly different for socialism, marxism and capitalism (whether properly market based or in its current messed up version).

          1. Thanks for the tip on Andrew Nikoforuk!

            I feel that communist production based upon an industrial economy would eat up the planet just as well as a capitalist one. The primary distinction between the two would be how the surplus/profits are rationed/distributed.

            Andrew Nikiforuk on Getting Real about Our Crises
            “Capitalism, like socialism and communism, is simply a way to use energy to create technologies that structure society in homogeneous ways.”
            https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/12/06/Andrew-Nikiforuk-Getting-Real-About-Our-Crises/

            Oldie but a goodie;
            The ELP Plan: Economize; localize & produce
            “Cut thy spending and get thee to the non-discretionary side of the economy.”
            https://www.resilience.org/stories/2011-08-08/elp-plan-economize-localize-produce/

          2. Thank you for mentioning Andrew Nikoforuk Mr. Kaplan.

            “The existing system contains so much slack and fat that we could easily reduce our energy spending to levels common in the 1960s and 1970s. That wasn’t exactly the Dark Ages.
            …
            Can we really slow our economy to the point that it shrinks without plunging people into grim lifestyles, like those that climate change will most assuredly impose on civilization if we don’t address the ecological crisis? Yes, we can. Will we do so to avoid calamity? Probably not.”
            https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-11-10/tech-wont-save-us-shrinking-consumption-will-returning-to-a-1970s-economy-could-save-our-future/

        2. Culture changes fast, from what I can tell, at least when things seem to be getting better, which is what I have lived through. My grans thoughts oil was magic to their lives. I feel that if people in America today had to suddenly live on root veg and no refrigeration then they’d feel as if it’s like living in the Stone Age; it is in fact for many their grandmothers age. But folks would quickly get used to it.

          1. I could get used to it, but I would have lots of apples and other seasonal fruits and veggies canned or dried, and salted or smoked pork and a chicken for the pot once in a while thru the winter.
            But only if I would if I were still young enough to work hard enough, lol.
            I grew up eating as described.

            If the shit hits the fan within the next few years, I might find a couple of women desperate enough to come live with me and do the necessary work, while I supervise.

            Farming is hard work, but there’s other work a lot harder, and if you have a tractor and implements, that takes the worst of it out. I do, and I will have a stash of essential parts and fuel, plus fertilizer, to make it a long time….. five years at least, if I get worried about things falling apart in a hurry.

            The first people who show up early will be able to buy all they want of such commodities.
            I’ll be one of the first, because buying this stuff early is a near zero downside proposition. All you would lose would be the short term use of the money for other needs. The upside is that prices will double or triple and then after that…. such stuff will be unobtainium.

            1. I grew up in the city but have moved to a farm and learned all the above in the last 35 years. We have a cellar full of homegrown apples, potatoes, celeriac, squash/pumpkins, sweet potatoes, onions, turnips and many, many canned fruits and vegetables. Also, a freezer of pork, beef and turkey, most of it raised right here. Hard work, indeed. I wish there were more nubile teenage boys around who wanted to learn to work to survive.

              This afternoon, I must give the pig pen and chicken houses a thorough cleaning before the big freeze comes.

              Not that we think any of this will help if a hard landing happens. It’s fun, interesting and delicious. Maybe we’ll survive long enough to watch the worst happen, then wink out of existence like everyone else.

            2. I feel that perhaps all it’s going to take is one more El Nino super-heating event (like 2016), one more La Nina drought in the Southwest US and one more summer of hellacious record highs, floods, heatwaves, hurricanes, crop failures and droughts. That’s it — that’s all the buffer we have left to separate functioning modern civilization from becoming a hellscape, a condition that already exists in many less privileged countries.

            3. Mike B have you read Jonathan Lethem’s latest? It’s peak oil adjacent and a fun read about a farm in Maine after the government collapses. It’s called The Arrest.

              https://jonathanlethem.com/

              Also for fun peak oil adjacent fiction I would recommend David Mitchell’s Bone Clocks. The peak oil part doesn’t come until towards the end but it’s a great book regardless and is available for less than five bucks from my fave shopping site thriftbooks

              https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/the-bone-clocks_david-mitchell/8905976/item/9607941/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIyKWig6W79QIVwj2tBh1W5A7TEAQYCCABEgJ6kfD_BwE#idiq=9607941&edition=8775268

          2. I lived for about a year without electricity or running water.
            (water off the roof, into 55 gallon drum)
            I did have motor fuel, and rubber for spear guns.
            After a few months, you don’t even notice.

            1. HT , ok . i am happy for you . How do you collect rainwater in Kuwait ? See my post on the other thread .

            2. “I might find a couple of women desperate enough to come live with me”

              well OFM, I guess in the worst case scenario people could get that desperate….

              Just kidding of course.
              Sorry to divert the conversation for just a minute, but I couldn’t resist.

            3. How do you collect rainwater in Kuwait ?

              Who in their right mind would live in Kuwait?
              It might not even be a option shortly–

          3. According to the Columbia ensemble models El Nino might be appearing late next year (that’s by extrapolation and similar patterns were showing last year and then fizzled out). Australian wheat exports hit records last year but they’d fade away in an El Nino and wildfires would take off. Apparently nickel prices climb rapidly during in El Ninos because much of it is mined using water extraction in Indonesia, which gets hit by drought.

  5. I have speculated that birth rates may fall a hell of a lot faster than demographers expect…… because they may be missing some critical factors, such as tough economic times and increased availability of cheap birth control devices.

    From this link. https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/01/12/what-happens-when-the-worlds-most-populous-country-starts-to-shrink/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

    “Based on preliminary data, some Chinese demographers say that China’s population may have begun to fall in 2021. After peaking, the population will decline — significantly, by some projections. A 2020 study published in the Lancet estimated that China’s population could be cut in half by 2100.”

    1. There have been a series of reports indicating that population may grow less rapidly than the UN projections
      [currently pegged at 11.2 Billion at 2100].
      I wouldn’t be surprised to see (I won’t see it) population end up peaking at closer to 10 billion, as the lower range projection now pegs it in the chart below.

      People can change their behavior in the setting of great adversity or uncertainty faster than the projections of population incorporate. And I think much of the world population will be faced with both higher adversity and uncertainty overt the next decades. More and more young people have access to birth control, mobility, and cultural alternative viewpoints. The tendency to delay or reject child bearing may pick up steam.

      1. More and more young people have access to birth control…

        Yes, access to birth control will be a great factor. However, I believe access to food will be the greatest factor in controlling the population in the last half of this century.

        1. Hi Ron,
          You may be right…. but even though I won’t see 2050 unless I live WAY past the century mark, I’m hoping that most people will be well enough educated by then to at least read a little, and that there will be televisions, or at least radio’s, plus simple computers, etc, along with some solar panels, etc, that most people will understand that not having kids when they can barely feed themselves is a great idea.

          If I were a billionaire, I would try to set up a carrot and stick system that pays women and men directly, if they are willing to accept long term birth control devices such as iud’s or implants, or pay even more for vasectomies for men, etc.

          The stick part would be that a local community wouldn’t get a little solar farm of its very own, etc, unless enough people sign up for the birth control part.

        2. China’s population growth is dropping further and looks like it is reaching its peak right about now:

          https://www.reuters.com/world/china/birth-rate-mainland-china-2021-drops-record-low-2022-01-17/

          India has at least fallen below replacement level but still some growth through mid century due to demographic momentum:

          https://www.voanews.com/amp/india-s-population-growth-slows-as-women-have-fewer-children/6329223.html

          Africa and the Middle East however…that’s where the apocalyptic scenarios will likely play out, especially with the ravages of climate disruption

          1. I hadn’t thought about this before- but consider the affect of cell phone availability on the population dynamics-
            “According to UN estimates, in 2017 just over 50% of women between 15 and 49 y of age who are married or in union are able to make their own decisions about consensual sexual relations and make use of contraceptives and health services”

            “This study provides large-scale evidence that the expansion of mobile phones is associated with lower gender inequalities, higher contraceptive use, and lower maternal and child mortality, with bigger payoffs among the poorest countries. Micro-level analyses further show that the ownership of mobile phones has narrowed the information gap about reproductive and sexual health and empowered women to make independent decisions. Boosting mobile-phone access and coverage and overcoming digital divides within and among the poorest countries has immense implications for sustainable development.”

            https://www.pnas.org/content/117/24/13413

          2. Hi Stephen,
            I’m cautiously optimistic that countries that peak soon might avoid the worst in terms of famines and mad max civil scenarios. Half the luck will depend on the climate remaining more or less stable over the next few decades in these countries.

            When people talk about these things, they seldom if ever think them all the way thru.
            Let us suppose China starts shrinking soon. The existing built housing and infrastructure of every kind will be there…. meaning far less need for new roads, new schools, new electrical, water and sewage grid, etc.

            The resources currently being devoted to the expansion of such infrastructure can be diverted to better maintenance and upgrading of what exists already. The pressure on the land will start to ease off, meaning it will be easier to conserve soil and water, easier to preserve open spaces, forest lands, free running rivers, and such.

            Of course these glimmers of silver lining won’t show thru in the black clouds hanging over places where the population will continue to grow.

            Now here’s the question. Will things play out the way I’ve speculated here a number of times, with people attempting to leave running up against fences ( REAL ones ) manned by troops willing to shoot, and orders to do so?

            How many migrants will the people of Western Europe, the people of the USA , Canada, Japan, Australia…… be willing to admit?

            What will the criteria be? I don’t see any country being willing to accept illiterate or barely literate and mostly unskilled people who don’t speak the language, etc, in large enough numbers to really change the overall balance of population versus food in the overpopulating areas.

            Do you?

            Does anybody else?

            What difference would it make, really, if Japan were to decide to admit five million people, back in the countries where they’re from?

            Keep in mind that the ones that would be admitted would be the best educated, the most highly skilled individuals.

      2. Hickory —
        The UN consistently underestimates how far birth rates can fall. They predict falling birth rates, but tend to assume it will never fall below replacement levels.

        But the real driver of population growth is higher survival rates. People just aren’t dying as soon as they used to.The result is that the number of old people is growing faster than the number of young people.

        If someone invents a cheap way to keep people alive for 200 years the population will explode. Well, for a while anyway.

        1. Conversely, maybe people should be incentivized to live a shorter life.
          Or at least be allowed to die freely whenever they wish, without resorting to a gun or without the assistance of their friends and family if they wish.

  6. Yep-

    “About 20% of end-use energy consumption in the United States today is electricity, but that could rise to 60% by 2050 … according to EPRI’s analysis.”
    “There will be a “massive increase in dependence on the electricity sector by society as we go forward,..how do we maintain the reliability and resiliency of the grid in such a massive transformation? ”

    And for an excellent source of info on the status of electricity in you state this site is a wealth of information-
    [scroll to the bottom to go to your particular state]
    https://findenergy.com/

    1. The most important point is what triggers them. Highly unlikely that what was brewing underground near Tonga started within the last century. More likely it has been building for thousands or millions of years and was just waiting for something to set it off. For example it could have been just the right alignment of tidal force.

      c.f. … Everything related to El Ninos and La Ninas is potentially just a tidal force thing. Jury is out on this since climate scientists have little clue, read my post from the other day: https://geoenergymath.com/2022/01/14/sea-level-height-as-a-proxy-for-enso/

      1. Thanks for that Paul! Always a pleasure reading what you have to say.
        To put it mildly, I’m not a physicist, but I feel that perhaps the seesawing and fulcrums of tectonics, if that’s how they are, would be impacted by masses of water changing over top of them.

            1. If one can establish a pattern of hundreds or thousands of seismic events correlated with the timing of lunar and solar orbital positions, then perhaps a connection to triggering can be established. But that hasn’t yet been done with statistical significance. One study that looks impressive is obscure
              https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262563466_Sun_Moon_and_Earthquakes

              Look at this figure
              https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Vinayak-Kolvankar/publication/262563466/figure/fig1/AS:296886117388288@1447794574562/First-set-of-six-XY-plots-for-earthquakes-EMD-SEM-vs-GMT-timings-Sun-position-are_W640.jpg

              That is the problem with climate connections in that there is not enough data to show a cause via correlation

  8. How will you fit in?
    Do you
    -pay your Federal compliance fees,
    -direct prayer/payment to the approved consortium of RPI [Regulated Preacher International]
    -control your thoughts and monitored expression for the good of social cohesion
    -maintain a proper credit and consumption score
    -vote early and often for the DDI [Daily Discipline Initiatives]

    https://www.good-citizen.com/
    “GoodCitizen believes we all have the power to shape the world we live in. But it takes the right leadership. and discipline among the citizenry.”

    Warning-
    Please do not try to follow the link supplied, as you are being monitored and this will be seen as an act of civil disobedience [Trump@rules 34.80781]

  9. I never believed in the possibility of a new entry of Russian troops into the territory of the east of Ukraine, now I also consider it impossible. But there are alarming news about the movement of troops in the Russian Federation. Here is a video, though in Russian: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fzgmwOPHQo

    1. Mr Opritov , what can you and me do if someone has a ” death wish ” ( Washington ) ? . Take care .

      ““Russia is the U.S.’s third largest supplier of petroleum products. In 2020, the U.S. imported 538,000 barrels per day from Russia, and even more in 2021. Russia’s supply accounts for 7% of all U.S. petroleum imports, and while an energy loss of 7% would be a major blow to the U.S., Russia can easily divert these shipments to the East and sell them there.

      Were Russia to cut off its energy supplies to the EU, the economic devastation would be immediate and immeasurable. And the physical and infrastructure destruction would be even worse. People would literally freeze to death, pipes would freeze and burst, factories would be shut down and deteriorate, never to be re-opened. That is actually happening now in Ukraine. The U.S. and EU should take a look at that and take a lesson.”
      Collective madness is now called sanity . Just look at the way the world handled Covid .

      1. HOLE IN HEAD,in negotiations with the United States, the Russian government put forward unacceptable ultimatum demands. This has never happened before. What happened? Perhaps because of the meeting between Presidents Putin and Xi at the Beijing Olympics ..

        1. Mr Opritov , what happened ? I had in an earlier post said “peak oil , peak gas and peak coal ” have arrived simultaneously for Russia . Mr Putin now does not have to go looking for new customers, as a
          matter of fact he knows he is going to have to ration his supplies . He can afford to take bold steps . I ran across this interesting article . Enjoy .
          https://euobserver.com/opinion/154050

          1. HOLE IN HEAD, Thank you. Interestingly, it turned out that this year gas consumption in the Russian Federation unexpectedly increased by 15% (60 billion cubic meters). Experts say that it was mainly gas chemistry and electricity production that grew slightly. According to forecasts, consumption will continue to grow. Construction of the Vostok gas pipeline (western Siberia-China) will begin in 2023. It looks like president Putin wants to leave Europe without gas ….

            1. Hey guys,

              I have been posting comments months, maybe years here to the effect that neither the Germans nor the Russians have forgotten the Siege of Stalingrad.

              And that if the Russians ( Putin) were to cut the gas and oil off for just a month, it would throw all of Europe into what I really should be describing as a CRASH and BURN aircraft landing, in economic terms. And so far as that goes, it wouldn’t do the rest of the world any good at all.

              To me it’s obvious that one GOOD reason the Germans are so far out front in terms of the renewables industries, compared to other Western countries, IS that they haven’t forgotten and know that every cubic meter and barrel of oil they’re using is money in the pocket of countries that are “NOT NECESSARILY” their friends.

            2. OFM–
              I’d say the average German just hates the idea of wasting fuel or anything else. The idea that Germany should import fuel when it’s perfectly possible to generate enough electricity with local resources is very appealing to people across the political spectrum.

            1. OFM
              Nothing, let the Germans not worry, President Biden promised to supply them with LNG .

            2. Once again – fake political news
              “President Biden promised to supply them with LNG”

    1. What really pisses people off, and leads to social chaos and government overthrow such as Arab Spring in Egypt, the French and Russian Revolutions (and all the rest), as well as many of the episodes popular backed authoritarianism, is the sense that inequity of access to food and energy is extreme and unjust.

      We will likely see a lot more of this kind of action coming up.
      How will people react when they realize that large swaths of cropland are owned by transnational corporations and the production is being diverted to airplane biofuel production for outsiders, while they are hungry?
      Or that a few percent can afford beef production while others struggle to get a small bowl of cowpeas (black eyed peas)?

      These kind of things have been going on for a long time (ex Banana plantations for export on the best croplands in Honduras or Guatemala while the indigenous get pushed off to marginal lands),
      but will likely get exacerbated with climate change and overpopulation.

  12. Scotland just held a big lease auction for offshore wind
    “generating capacity of 25 gigawatts (GW). To put that in perspective, the current capacity of offshore wind in Scotland is about 2 GW.”
    “Renewable firms, oil majors among bidders in Scotland’s wind lease tender”
    ““In addition to the environmental benefits, this also represents a major investment in the Scottish economy, with around £700m being delivered straight into the public finances and billions of pounds worth of supply chain commitments. The variety and scale of the projects that will progress onto the next stages shows both the remarkable progress of the offshore wind sector, and a clear sign that Scotland is set to be a major hub for the further development of this technology in the years to come.”

    This will be adding the annual generating capacity equivalent to roughly 10 nuclear plants (1000MW each)
    And this is just scratching the surface of tapping into the resource of the region.

    1. It is very inspiring to see the level of commitment and ambition in this major lease auction.

      60% of it is floating wind, 40% stationary; of the 25 GW. While stationary has its advantages when it comes to cost per mwh, floating does open up 4-5 times the acreage available. And the best areas for sustained wind and areas with other wind patterns. The biggest wind mills (the 15 mw ones) will still be stationary on depths lower than 50 meters. But the combination of not needing the concrete foundation, access to areas not already overcrowded with wind mills and in addition a supposedly more tidy decommissioning/ recycling prospect makes floating offshore wind very interesting indeed. Despite high costs.

      Looking at the wind patterns right now at https://www.windfinder.com . The whole of UK is mostly in a wind lull, which is the worst case scenario. Still the wind is blowing pretty strong in the north and west offshore of Scotland, where some of the new leases are proposed. Also, the proposed wind farms (floating) outside the Celtic coast would have been able to produce power right now. Furthermore the wind blows pretty strong offshore in west Germany and the danish west coast (where an artificial energy island for offshore wind is proposed). So interconnectors from those places can also help when the wind is not blowing like now.

      1. Kolbeinih , ” The whole of UK is mostly in a wind lull, which is the worst case scenario. ”
        Friend this worst case scenario is actually the best case scenario. See my post on Kuwait on the other thread . Mother nature takes no prisoners .

      2. News flash- wind energy is intermittent/variable. Plan for it.
        Probably more reliable than nat gas from Russia, or depleted oil wells from wherever.

        btw- the average annual windspeed at 100 meter (hub height) offshore Scotland is greater than 10m/s!!!
        Holy crap that will get companies lining up out the door to get in on the action.
        And it did.

        see for yourself- https://globalwindatlas.info/

        2. News flash- wind energy is intermittent/variable.

          And demand is the same. The grid has been dealing with wild minute to minute imbalances between supply and demand for more than a century. The idea that renewables are the problem is just propaganda.

      3. I think, in UK at least, we are seeing the first signs of Tainters problem for declining societies: the marginal gains from increasing complexity are no longer solving the problems and may be starting to make things worse. We got a boost in productivity in he 90s from the initial impact of IT but iPhones etc. haven’t done much at all for it. We embraced renewables, but I don’t see things working out quite as hoped (and when the price rises start to impact in April there might well be a backlash).

        1. Agree with you on Tainters problem hitting the UK first in the devolped world . Importing 65 % of food and 80% of energy is loosing proposition . To add to the problem is that it is an island nation making supply chains a bottleneck . Limited entry and exit points to allow a free flow of goods . JIT will not work anymore in an energy constrained world .

        2. George- when you say “We embraced renewables”,
          I take it you mean that some portion in the population likes the idea of renewables, rather than relying on oil, gas, and coal until they run out.
          But liking the idea the idea is different than a successful or meaningful level of implementation.
          Its far too early for that- everyone is just getting started on that path.
          When fossil fuel energy is down 40% due to depletion it will be a better time to judge how
          useful or irrelevant were the efforts to deploy other sources of energy supply.

          And yes, downsizing and simplification will be necessary. Its a matter of just how fast and chaotic the contraction will be.
          Most places will be wise to think in terms of just how many people can reasonably survive on domestic sources of energy, food and materials.

        3. Well to be honest, I had to look up the Tainters problem. When it comes to the complexity in today’s society, it is scary. Why we have to exploit almost every mineral in the period system in a interconnected global economy is beyond me. Still, there are too many bright people at work for a societal decline to be sudden or unplanned as of now (many places). The state share of the economy in the western world is off the scales. They are analyzing these problems up and down twice over. Not comparable to ancient history.

  13. While it is questions of how far the electric car “revolution” can go on due to metal requirements, the cars can complement the intermittent energy sources if connected to the mainstream grid or even to an offgrid self sufficient home (the last solution offers more individual incentive to invest ). Volkswagen is promoting vehicle-to-grid technology from 1Q2022.

    Think about it; your car can sustain a 1000 watt oven probably for 30 hours if you have 30 kwh left on the battery. Or you could probably double the efficiency if you have a heat pump installed (works under -10c). 60 hours of heating of one big room then; works during a sustained wind lull. Very real situation when Europe gets reliant on wind power in the future. And a good solution. VW is of course promoting big battery cars for everyone as part of the solution. Let’s see how far our metal resources goes; it is not going to be cheap.

    1. In many parts of the world there is enough solar incoming that a 6 panel roof system could give you 25 miles/day EV travel average [roughly 40 km].
      This is certainly the case in Europe south of the Alps and most of the USA.
      And you could pair that to a car with a small battery pack, say 75 mile range.
      Its a viable path for a big part of the world.

      1. Hi Hickory,
        Finding desperate women isn’t any problem for an old farmer, lol.

        A dozen or more of the more attractive ones who would barely say hello to me back in my high school days because I wasn’t part of the local “IN” crowd are still aROUND, with the emphasis on the round part, seem to think I’m an ELIGIBLE bachelor, lol.

        The old farm house is comfortable , and I won’t live forever, and the place could be sold off piecemeal for enough to live quite comfortably for a long time…..

        Now finding a couple willing to actually WORK ……….. I might as well go looking for the Holy Grail.

        You’re onto something that’s going to be HUGE within the next few years IMO….. short range electric cars.

        My own SWAG is that forty or fifty million working people in the USA could get by just fine with a seventy five mile range car, considering the alternative…… going without.

        A fair number of local people are perfectly ready to take a test ride in such a car…… so as to leave their F150 or Yukon sitting in the driveway most of the time….. meaning it would be the last one they will ever need.

        Four or five years ago they were convinced they would never see an electric car on the local roads.

        Giving up the McMansion is NOT an option under any circumstances.

        If keeping it means driving a two seat fore and aft minicar ( with leather seats and ac , etc, of course) to work is the only option……. CPA’s and lawyers will drive them.

        I’m figuratively praying for Sky Daddy to send us a limited hot war that would keep the oil tankers in port for a few months…….. or pop us one upside our collective head with another broken brick of the same sort.

        ‘Cause after all Preacher sez HE works in strange ways…….

        That might be enough to convince Uncle Sam that we need such cars, and mandate that each car company must produce some, or else buy production credits from some other manufacturer…..

    2. Europe will not be dependend on wind power in the future – at least not completely.

      France / Poland / Netherlands and the east countries will go nuclear, Finland will go nuclear/hydro. Otheres are still undecided as Italia.

      It looks like it will be a mix – at least Germany is now in the lead again. The government discusses now how the country will be plastered with wind turbines. No big plans for new interconnections and only pilot projects for storages still.

      Storages are the least important anyway – there is a huge demand of hydrogen from the industry – and even more when the steel industry, chemical and fertilizer will need to go green.

      I don’t know if you can even change weather patterns if you increase wind energy by huge amounts. Taking energy out of low pressure systems, when everything will have to run on wind, it will be a tap of several 100 GW. Perhaps the effect of a medium mountain range? Less rain for east europe and russia. It’s only speculating, but everything you do has an effect.

      It won’t stop a storm pattern, but a low to medium size low pattern can be slowed down I think. These who bring mild rain to sustain water supply.

      1. “Europe will not be dependend on wind power in the future – at least not completely.”

        Of course not.
        There will be coal, and nuclear, and forests (cut), and some imported gas, and some solar in the south.
        And eventually much less people.

        Germany domestically produced 33% of its energy consumption as of 2019.
        The percent for France was 51%, Italy 21%, Netherlands 37%, Spain 26%, UK 68%, Poland 56%, as other examples of energy dependency on imported fossil fuels.
        Those fossil fuels will not be so easily available and inexpensive as time goes on.

        1. At least in Germany I don’t see less people – it’s growing now.

          And our do gooders want much more refugees – first resettlements in the EU for those whose conditions are not german standard, and others want more open borders. Jobs and great social security payments.

          So I don’t count on less emmissions by a shrinking population. It’s more building in the metropols because they have the better isolated foreign communities.

          You don’t need to speak german when you live in Berlin or Hamburg, so it’s attractive.

          1. Eulen , the whole of EU and that includes Germany are now in deep DODO . Read the report . EU goes into trade deficit for the first time since 2014 . Why ? Energy costs . The whole welfare state ( social contract ) is creaking . You know better than me that the ECB is now the worlds largest ” bad bank ” . Bring in more refugees ? Nuts .
            https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2013/december/tradoc_151969.pdf
            I am sure you know about “Target 2” imbalance . Try explaining that to others who are ignorant about it . I get surprising reactions .

  14. In case you were wondering.

    THE EQUIVALENT OF A 10KM ICE CUBE IS MELTING EACH YEAR

    The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison Exercise (IMBIE) and the ESA’s Climate Change Initiative has been using long-term datasets to distinguish defined trends from seasonal noise spanning up to four decades, from 11 satellite missions. Among those is the CryoSat-2, a satellite orbiting 719km above Earth that can detect changes in thickness of all ice types. Data from these missions reveal that Greenland and Antarctica are seeing vastly increased rates of change, with the former losing ice mass seven times faster than in the 1990s.

    A 2020 Nature paper by members of IMBIE found that that melt between 1992 and 2018 was enough to push global sea level up by 10.6 millimetres. Every centimetre of global sea level rise subjects another six million coastal inhabitants to flooding.

    https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/12/13/equivalent-10km-ice-cube-melting-year-space-monitoring-shows/

    1. Meanwhile, sixth consecutive year record ocean heating has been broken.

      HOTTEST OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN HISTORY RECORDED LAST YEAR

      Last year saw a heat record for the top 2,000 meters of all oceans around the world, despite an ongoing La Niña event, a periodic climatic feature that cools waters in the Pacific. The 2021 record tops a stretch of modern record-keeping that goes back to 1955. The second hottest year for oceans was 2020, while the third hottest was 2019.

      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jan/11/oceans-hottest-temperatures-research-climate-crisis

    2. In 20 years, hopefully the majority of people will be driving an EV, and these articles will be ancient history.

      1. Mesteve,

        In order for that to work the electricity needs to be produced, the problem of intermittent wind and solar needs to be addressed. There may be solutions, possibly overbuilding, better interconnection and synthetic fuels as backup. Saying it is easy, creating a system that functions well will be a significant challenge.

        1. “two-thirds of the commercially available solar panels are made with electricity generated from Chinese coal.”

          will be a significant challenge.

      3. YouSteve
        “In 20 years, hopefully the majority of people will be driving an EV, and these articles will be ancient history.”

        Well, you did get the part about electric vehicles correct, but
        Actually ancient is considered “Existent in time long past, usually in remote ages”
        Heck in 20 years these articles won’t even be antique.

        And in 20 years the world will be a hell of lot hotter than today. Most people will have to rent time under a shade tree, in 15 minute blocks.

      1. “The world risks “running out of copper” amid widening supply and demand deficits, according to Bank of America, and prices could hit $20,000 per metric ton by 2025.”

        Thats double the price now.
        I wouldn’t be surprised, but demand for the metal won’t be depressed by that price level.

        Cost of many things will be double in the next 5 years.
        Cost of functional democracy will be 10 times higher, if you can even still buy one.
        Cost of fascism- declining trend continues. Lines around the block just to get in the rallies.

    3. I stumbled upon this link on metal requirements for green technologies on twitter:
      https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1482317780561051654/photo/1
      This is some McKinsey consultants (probably young) digging hard into metal requirements for different green technologies.

      Most metals can be pursued given higher prices. There can also be some substitution going on (copper to aluminum or nickel for stainless steel to high grade nickel for batteries). Thankfully there are a lot of virgin lithium resources, aluminum and copper can be recycled and rare earth metals can be mined. So electrification efforts will not be stopped, there are just hard limits over time and it all has a cost (not at least when it comes to fossil fuels devoted for mining and refining).

  16. I think Prof. Rees talks more sense than most concerning our various challenges and it’s usually unambiguous and unembellished, but one thing I don’t understand is when he says we are in overshoot by about 70% (i.e. need another 0.7 planet to be sustainable) but by the turn of the century he highest population we can have is two billion. This would suggest that earth’s carrying capacity is going to plummet by about 64% in the next 80 years. I guess I’d question the 70% more than the two billion (which if anything seems a bit high). We have already degraded much soil to the extent that it is non-productive without huge amounts of fertilizer and much is dependent on energy intense irrigation; the easy to get mineral and energy resources have gone and remaining ores and fossil fuels can only be extracted with a complex functioning infrastructure (I’m not sure if non-renewables count in carrying capacity); we are probably committed to 2 degrees warming because of triggered tipping points and loss of aerosol; committed sea level rise is going to remove significant amounts of the fertile soil that does remain; and ocean anoxia, acidification and warming already baked in will destroy significant seafood socks.

    If we are only at 70% overshoot then I don’t think things are going to remain stable enough to allow all the extra damage to reduce the capacity as predicted, although Tim Garrett has estimated we could do as much damage in the next 30 tears as in the previous 250, which is maybe consistent with Prof. Rees’s numbers.

    By 2100 I think we’ll be in undershoot anyway, so population will be lower than carrying capacity, and even if the capacity improves slowly there may be no way back and we will be headed towards extinction (a process that may eventually take centuries or millennia).

    1. Carrying capacity is an important theoretical topic. We certainly don’ t have any idea of what level it is for the earth and humans.
      It depends in part on how people live. For example in regard to soil and food- just how much meat/capita is mass produced, or how much more good farmland is destroyed will affect the measure of ‘food’ carrying capacity.
      Eating lower on the meat food chain could easily double the population sustainability when it comes to food supply, or require 1/2 as much land be diverted from wilderness to feed the same population.
      Our general failure of land use planning around the world is continuing to severely degrade the prospects for carrying capacity, and for the continuing existence of wildlife diversity as well.
      Along with energy supply, the most important ingredient of the planets ability to provide wildlife or human carrying capacity is soil.
      And we generally treat it as garbage.
      Amazingly, most people (unless they are hands on farmers) know close to nothing about soil, and the factors that affect its quality/potential productivity in a wild or managed setting.
      They know more about sports scores or fashion brands.

      So yeh, testing the level of carrying capacity is an ‘exercise’ the world will gain experience with, but first there will a long period of painful and more gradual downsizing. Kicking and screaming the whole way.

      1. Hickory, carrying capacity is not a theoretical topic. And knowing when we have surpassed carrying capacity is very easy to determine. If we are causing many species of animals to go extinct then we have surpassed carrying capacity, Ditto if our rivers and lakes are drying up, If our deserts are expanding, If our rain forest and boreal forest are being clear cut for timber and to create agricultural land, if our ocean fisheries are disappearing, and I could continue for a full page or more but you get the idea.

        As shown by George’s chart above, we are already well past carrying capacity, we are deep into overshoot. We are near the crest of population growth. And our crash will lower the carrying capacity far lower than it is today. No edible animal will survive our period of mass starvation. Even the predators will die of starvation because we will have eaten their prey. We will eat the songbirds out of the trees.

        1. By theorectical- I meant that the number is unknowable, and that is why there is no numbering labels on the chart George supplied.
          And of course- if you remove fossil fuel from the equation the global population exceeded
          the carrying capacity of the earth a long time ago- sometime around 1880, roughly.
          Sitting Bull will confirm that.

          Fossil fuels and all of the other forms of energy production that have utilized fossil fuels to get built (like hydroelectric dams, nuclear plants, etc), are not going to disappear all on one day. It will be a drawn out contraction. Carrying capacity level will be explored over a very long time. It will take a century or three to know if it is more or less than 700 million.

          1. Speaking of animals, there is a strong chance that trend of large mammal extinction that happened at a dramatic pace recently (ex- in N.America 32 genera of large mammals became extinct over several thousand years centered on 11,000 yrs ago so-called ‘Late Pleistocene Epoch extinction of megafauna’)
            will complete a round two of large animal extinction in this century.
            Humans may be the only large primate left.
            Genetically engineered versions of cow, pig, horse, sheep and goat will also still be found in significant numbers.

    2. George Kaplan wrote: I think Prof. Rees talks more sense than most concerning our various challenges…

      George, I would love to read this article by Prof. Rees but I just don’t know where to find it. Could you post a link? Thank you.

        2. “Through the Eye of the Needle” is a fucking doozy. Read it, everyone.

            1. Yes, and Rees makes it clear that “Climate Change” is really the least of our problems: it is a symptom of a more gargantuan problem.

  17. Oh good to know you’ve got it all figured out.
    According to you what is the carrying capacity of the earth?

    1. Rees, like Hubbert, is a monumental figure. And so articulate and polite!

      Furthermore, this just isn’t about “human” nature, as Rees even says in the phrase, “like all other species/populations.”

      It’s the way of the world.

      Also, carrying capacities may change literally with the weather. See Climate Change and the End of the Bronze Age.”

      Megadrought brings famine, brings refugees in the Aegean, brings burning and looting, brings disruption of zinc trade, brings collapse, dark age, and loss of literacy.

      1. Furthermore, this just isn’t about “human” nature, as Rees even says in the phrase, “like all other species/populations.”

        Mike, I think you misunderstood that sentence. Rees is talking exclusively about Homo Sapiens, not about animals. Rees was simply stating that we, (Homo Sapiens), expand to occupy all available habits and use all available resources, just like all other animals attempt to do. But other animals have constraints on their population growth that we do not have. We have no predators to constrain our population growth and we can take over other animals’ habitats at will.

        Yes, it’s only about human nature. Other animals have their nature as well but we are super predators. All other species are totally at our mercy. Well, all large animals anyway. Rats, mice, mosquitos, and microscopic vermin continue to plague us.

        1. As John Gray spends a lot of time telling us, we are first and foremost animals with animal reflexes.

    2. We evolved from hungry weak scavengers, who are primed to want more and more. It’s just that with our modern abundance people no longer have to struggle out a basic survival. Now they can reveal who they really are underneath.

      Spoiler alert. Most people are, aspiring emperors and gods who want the good life. Empirically almost every social experiment on societies when the groups were offered essentially abundance of their necessities moved in the same direction. Power, greed, bullying. It’s what mankind has been for a long time. Now it’s just completely in your face.

    3. The idea that humans are genetically predisposed to fill all niches is based on the idea that humans can fill a lot of niches, and like all animals, they are predisposed to increase as much as they can. But the second claim seems doubtful since the pill was invented about 60 years ago.

      Humans are predisposed to fuck, but if fucking doesn’t make babies expansion will stop by itself.

      Humans like babies, but lapdogs are pretty cute as well. In the modern world, dogs have gone from being Man’s Best Friend to being hijackers of humans child care instincts for their own survival like a cuckoo laying an egg in a songbird’s nest.

      It all sounds a bit lonely, but who needs friends when you can watch sitcoms on TV?

      Like all animal behavior, human instinctual behavior doesn’t just happen. It is triggered by external cues, which are easy to imitate. For example, you can be sexually aroused by porn, even though it is just a piece of paper. You may thing a tiny bird feeding a baby cuckoo bigger than itself is pretty dumb, but humans do dumber things.

      So just waving your hands and saying “human nature determines this outcome” is naive. The question we are facing is less what our instincts are and more what cues we will be exposed to and what the consequences of reacting to them will be.

      1. No, Alimbiquated, that is not what it is all about. It is all about the struggle to survive. And it is not an idea, it is simply an observable fact. People try to survive and if they need more territory to do it, they take it. All animals try to do that but only humans have the absolute power to do it. It is simply human nature to do what one needs to do to survive.

  19. How long to midnight?

    THE DOOMSDAY CLOCK MEASURES MORE THAN NUCLEAR RISK, AND IT’S ABOUT TO BE RESET AGAIN

    In less than 24 hours the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists will update the Doomsday Clock. It’s currently at 100 seconds from midnight—the metaphorical time when the human race could destroy the world with technologies of its own making. The hands have never before been this close to midnight. There is scant hope of it winding back on what will be its 75th anniversary.

    In 2022, their warning extends beyond weapons of mass destruction to include other technologies that concentrate potentially existential hazards—including climate change and its root causes in over-consumption and extreme affluence. Many of these threats are well known already. For example, commercial chemical use is all pervasive, as is the toxic waste it creates. There are tens of thousands of large scale waste sites in the US alone, with 1,700 hazardous “superfund sites” prioritized for clean-up.

    https://phys.org/news/2022-01-midnight-doomsday-clock-nuclear-reset.html

    1. Meanwhile, we have good old CO2 with Dec. 2021 = 416.71 ppm, Dec. 2020 = 414.26 ppm

      So, “The 2021 annual mean global temperature will fall almost smack on the 1970-2015 trend line. Can we continue to say that we are in a period of accelerated global warming? Yes, for sure, based on knowledge of factors that cause most of the short-term global temperature variability. Long-term change becomes more apparent, when we account for short-term variability.”

      Of course, at least according to some, in 20 or 30 years we will all be driving EVs and this “alarmist” talk will be forgotten. 😉

      1. “Of course, at least according to some, in 20 or 30 years we will all be driving EVs and this “alarmist” talk will be forgotten.”

        These are the words of an oil advocate and climate denier. Doug, it’s your ignorant comments like this putting false narratives to other peoples comments which makes you a jerk. I expect better from you, others not so much. Please name me one regular here who advocates EV’s alone will turn around climate change. There are none. EV’s are simply one of the largest low hanging fruit to transform. Please, if you can’t be honest about others, than be honest about your own words and stop posting.

        BTW, you live in a climate zone which is uninhabitable for modern humans without burning fuel and have added to the overshoot problem on this planet. You are part of the problem.

        1. “These are the words of an oil advocate and climate denier”

          You’re toast. Permanent ignore.

        2. HB- I think Doug was quoting someone else from upthread in a joking sarcastic manner-
          MeSteve-
          “In 20 years, hopefully the majority of people will be driving an EV, and these articles [about climate change] will be ancient history.”

        3. “Please name me one regular here who advocates EV’s alone will turn around climate change.” ~ HB

          Here Nick states, in bold; “Eliminate fossil fuels, and we’re no longer in overshoot”

          https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-december-17-2021/#comment-731835

          Furthermore;

          Here Nick accuses Jason Bradford of pushing fossil fuel talking points.
          http://peakoilbarrel.com/usa-oil-production/#comment-686913

          Here Nick accuses Nate Hagens of pushing fossil fuel talking points.
          https://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-october-2020-production-data/#comment-711028

          “BTW, you live in a climate zone which is uninhabitable for modern humans without burning fuel and have added to the overshoot problem on this planet. You are part of the problem.” ~ HB

          Last I heard from HB on the matter, he claimed to drive 5 miles to the gym so he can ride a stationary bike. Reminds me of the guy who lived in a high rise and bought a stairclimber for exercise.

          BTW, whatever happened to Fred Magyar? He was such a good ally and mouth piece for the cornucopians here. As I recall he shuffled off from this highly esteemed blog shortly after calling me a “Russian Fossil Fuel Troll” (it was 2018 and the Russian thing was a hot) because I dared to question the utterances of his Tech Daddy, Mr Elon Musk. If you, HB, see him around in California Cubicle Land™, please give him my best.

          The Boring Company’s “Traffic-Free” Hyperloop Gets Backed Up After Traffic Jam At CES 2022
          “Although it has promised that “traffic and congestion will be a thing of the past,” videos emerging from demonstrations at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas show that traffic and congestion are still possible in the Boring Company’s tunnels.”
          https://www.carscoops.com/2022/01/the-boring-companys-traffic-free-hyperloop-gets-gridlocked-at-ces-2022/amp/

          1. Survivalist , I don’t post on this thread often because I know you are there to unravel the myths . You rock buddy . Keep rocking .

            1. It’s worth putting a pin in it when Nick says something ridiculous.

  21. Flash forward to the next decade.
    Whoever lives in a region that imports energy via tanker, truck, pipeline or E transmission
    is going to find energy much more expensive, if available to purchase at all.
    So the choices include downsizing the regional population and energy demand (starting in the 1970’s when this coming time of energy constraint was clearly known),
    or prepare to institute a system of energy rationing (for those who aren’t the wealthiest, of course),
    or perhaps even consider the outlandish notion of building some local energy production facilities. [Some people may feel that this last approach should be completely avoided since there won’t be enough minerals to get the job accomplished 100%- hmm]

    Of course there may be the temporary fallback position used in the 1800’s- cut all the forests for fuel. All of it. And start stripping the land where there is still some coal left. And buy as much horse pasture land as you can afford.

    The ‘theorectical’ concern of carrying capacity will start to feel more like a real life experiment in survival.

  22. There is a new mapping application for pumped hydro energy storage, sponsored by the Australian gov
    https://nationalmap.prod.saas.terria.io/#share=s-tPEnZ4T5NRAYIiLS0E3ftvcAzb

    Pumped Hydro storage
    “An off-river pumped hydro system comprises a pair of reservoirs spaced several miles apart with an altitude difference of 200-800 meters (about 650-2,600 feet) and connected with pipes or tunnels. The reservoirs can be new or use old mining sites or existing lakes or reservoirs’ for example.
    https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/news/heres-how-pumped-hydro-works-as-an-energy-storage-resource/

  23. Sophism is the use of fallacious arguments to deceive others or obscure the truth.

    One such sophism is No True Scotsman:
    From Wiki:
    Person A: “No Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge.”
    Person B: “But my uncle Angus is a Scotsman and he puts sugar on his porridge.”
    Person A: “But no true Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge.”

    A recent development is the “no true climate change (AGW) advocate”:
    Person A: “No climate change advocate believes it’s too late to do anything about climate change.”
    Person B: “But [Name Here], et al., is one such advocate, and he believes it’s too late to do anything about it.”
    Person A: “But no true climate change advocate believes it’s too late. In fact, he’s a denier and a puppet of the fossil fuel industry.”

    Carl Sagan, in 1985, spouting fossil fuel industry talking points (minute 2:50)

    Perhaps Carl was wrong. That doesn’t make him a denier.

  24. I have just launched a new post on The Fine-Tuned Universe
    It is titled The Double-Slit Experiment. It is the central mystery of quantum mechanics. It is all about how photons, electrons, protons, whole atoms, and even very large molecules can exist as either a wave or a particle… but not both. Physicists for over a hundred years have been trying to figure it out. Yet it is so simple that a sixth-grader can understand what is going on but the wisest physicists cannot explain why what happens, happens. That is why a particle can be sometimes a wave when it is not being observed or recorded, but always a particle when it is.

    Also, the Double-Slit Experiment has spawned some hare-brained theories like the Many Worlds Interpretation in an attempt to explain why the wave collapsed. They say it doesn’t collapse; it just splits off into another universe.

    Check it out at The Fine-Tuned Universe

  25. The UK CCRA3 (climate change risk assessment) was just issued. These are legally required every five years. A bit more reality creeps in with each issue (for example this one recognizes a four degree rise by 2100 has a non-zero probability and that meeting two degrees is unlikely). Whether it will (or even can) make any difference when presented to parliament, which is much more interested in who drunk what and when over Xmas, remains to be seen.

    https://www.ukclimaterisk.org

    Also interesting and related are the UK SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) scenarios. One way the two least bad of these are more realistic in recognizing that we have to move to public transport rather than personal EVs to approach anything like sustainability. The worst scenario is pretty much a hell scape but probably the most likely and still understated.

    https://www.ukclimateresilience.org/products-of-the-uk-ssps-project/

    Another bit of reality is a new paper recognizing that history doesn’t stop in 2100

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.15871

    and discussed here:

    https://www.ecoshock.org/2022/01/climate-to-2500-or-get-off-earth-quick.html

    1. “Nearly one billion people will be displaced between now and 2040-2050… This is one of the most formidable events in the history of humankind…”

  26. Can we get there from here?
    People in the mountains around here often say you can’t…. meaning in the vernacular that getting to another community can only be accomplished by taking a roundabout route that might take two or three hours for what would be a ten or fifteen minute drive if only there were a road going that way.

    https://www.sciencealert.com/solar-panel-boom-s-demand-for-aluminium-is-a-big-carbon-problem

    I’m personally thinking that it’s possible, and quite possibly will be practical and profitable to substitute tough and weather proof plastics or plastic like materials for solar panel mounts. There will be plenty of oil and gas available to make such materials for a long time to come.

    I don’t know the composition, but I’ve run across some plastic parts on machinery that were still just like new, and tough as rubber, after twenty years or more of exposure to sun and weather, with some leaking oil and grease on them as well.

    And I don’t see any good reason steel, properly enclosed in such a plastic, can’t be made to last at least thirty or forty years …….. long enough that kicking that problem down the road would be an entirely realistic proposition. But doing it might mean using only standardized factory made component parts…… which would not be that big a problem, if some aluminum is also used, which could be custom fitted on the job site.

    Now here’s a question for anybody who might know.

    Is there any GOOD reason why the materials in wind turbine blades, other than metal, can’t be ground up and mixed in with concrete or used as part of the base materials, sand and gravel, for building paved roads?

    I don’t see anybody arguing that this stuff is water soluble to any significant extent…… so it ought to stay where you put it, except for soil erosion if it’s used as a road base.

  27. Interesting results on country survey of prosperity optimism
    ‘how many respondents in 28 countries feel they and their families will be doing better over the next five years’

    Highest scores-
    Kenya, Nigeria, Indonesia, India, Columbia, Brazil, Saudi, UAE, Mexico, S.Africa

    Lowest Scores-
    Japan, France, Germany, Netherlands, UK, Russia, Canada

    1. Hicks , whom did they question in India ? Creme de la creme ? Some info you will find interesting .
      1. 800 million live on free handout of 5 Kg rice/wheat + 1kg chickpeas PER MONTH .
      2. ELTS ( English Language Test ) is a $ 1 billion industry in India . Last year enrollment was 500,000 enrolled at the training centres in India . ELTS is required for Canadian immigration .
      3. In 2021 the maximum number of Indians relinquished their nationality .
      4. 2021 saw the maximum number of HNW( High Nett Worth ) individuals change residence , Dubai , Singapore , Doha and London .
      5 . Youth unemployment is now 60 % . These should be the core of the survey .
      Suggest you put it in file 13 ( also called the wastepaper basket ) .
      Just putting things in order because I know the members of the group that thinks their position will improve in five years . The problem is that NONE acknowledge peak oil , climate change and LTG . I have tried in vain to educate them but it has been futile .Tragedy of the rich , I guess ??

      1. Your optimism is infectious.

        But yes, I am certain the sample size of the survey is very low, and that most of the people surveyed could read and had a cellphone.
        “Reliance Jio was the leading [cell phone] service provider as of December 2020, with over 410 million subscriptions.”
        Literacy rate in India is now over 70%- it appears that people are optimistic that even more people will learn to read and write.

        The people who answered the survey in Europe also likely had cell phones and were literate.

        If you look at the country results in the survey in detail, you can see a strong correlation between country growth and optimism, and vice versa. Get ready for a much more pessimistic planet.
        Hole in Head as a role model pioneer.
        (actually I am pretty close to you on degree of pessimism about the big picture, but I do react very differently about many particular issues-
        for example you are Trump enthusiast and I consider him to be more a candidate for jail than for a leadership position in any village, let alone a country.

        1. Hicks , “Literacy rate in India is now over 70%- it appears that people are optimistic that even more people will learn to read and write.” .
          This is personal as to why immigrated 30 years ago . In 1990 I was on a flight New York – New Delhi . My fellow seat mate was a gentleman from UNESCO . We got talking and he was impressed by my English ( I studied in Ireland ) . I told him so and he gave me some startling info which I will share with you . UNESCO definition of literate is one who knows all the alphabets of his script but the Indian govt definition of a literate person is anyone who ” can write is name ” . So if you can write ” Hickory ” you are literate but if you can’t write ” Mike B ” is unimportant . He warned me ” Not literate means ,no means of absorbing skills , no skills means no jobs , no jobs means you are on the road and trouble and whose arse are they going to kick ? Answer the well off .” This was enlightenment . When I landed in New Delhi my decision was made . I will leave India ASAP . So take the 70 % figure with a tablespoon of salt . Where do we stand today ? Understand the poor send their children to school because there is a FREE midday meal scheme up to high school . Now the reality . 75 % of the kids dropout after high school because their families are too poor to continue education and the children join the labour force as menial labour such as domestic servants , tea stall workers , dishwashers , sweepers etc . There is a tsunami coming . In February is a state election where 50 % is the youth unemployment rate . This is going to be interesting . By the way the cell phones in India are common but mostly used to watch porn and tiktok . It is no barometer for literacy .

        1. take it up with the publishers of the data-

          “27-market global data margin of error: General population +/- 0.6%
          (n=31,050); half-sample global general online population +/- 0.8%
          (n=15,525).
          Country-specific data margin of error: General population +/- 2.9%
          (n=1,150); half-sample +/- 4.1% (n=575)”

  28. “Is there any GOOD reason why the materials in wind turbine blades, other than metal, can’t be ground up and mixed in with concrete or used as part of the base materials, sand and gravel, for building paved roads?”

    Not enough of it to be worth the trouble, I’d wager.

    2.2 million tons of decommissioned turbine blades by 2050 estimated; compare with 27 million tons of plastic waste dumped in landfills annually.
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/11/30/fact-check-recycling-can-keep-wind-turbine-blades-out-landfills/8647981002/

    Annual road base aggregate tonnage is estimated at 2.5 to 3 billion tons. Granted, mineral aggregates probably outweigh chunked polyester resins by a fair bit per cubic yard.
    https://highways.dot.gov/public-roads/septemberoctober-2011/wherefore-art-thou-aggregate-resources-highways

    1. Thanks for the reply. I expect you’re dead on the money.

      I’m looking for a really good reply to people who yammer on about the problems associated with disposing of such waste.

      1. In the future people will cherish the used blades to use as shade structures in the fields,
        taking an occasional break the from scorching sun during bean harvest.

    1. So far, all the carbon capture schemes I have seen are thermodynamic hogs, consuming more energy than was originally captured in the the burning of the fuel to start with.

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