And, from your post: “From 1 April 2002 to 31 August 2021, the period common to both datasets, the Greenland ice sheet has lost approximately 4,500Gt of ice. This is equivalent to 13mm of global average sea level rise. For context, a recent study estimated that climate change to date means that Greenland is already committed to “at least 274mm” of future sea level rise.”
“Greenland last saw an annual net gain of ice in 1996”
Its going to very interesting to see what the scenario is in another week or two.
I used to see discussions of the thickness and age of Arctic sea ice, as well as just the extent.
What’s the average thickness nowadays, compared to earlier?
Havana is going to be hit by a category 4 hurricane and Tampa will be brushed by a category 3 or 4 based on latest track estimates.
Anyone seen the winter weather outlook for Europe?
It’s finally raining here, thank goodness. There are some predictions of a mil winter, but it’s mostly guesswork.
Note that my expectation is that they all are overestimating future supply and that the oil market will be tight unless there is a severe recession in 2023, in that case the market might be balanced.
Who in hell would have anything to gain from a stunt like that?
Doug,
Ukrainians who want to reduce income from natural gas sales flowing to Russia and may want to divert any gas pipeline flows through Ukraine.
Dennis,
Good answer. Thanks.
Doug,
You’re welcome.
Note that my guess is pure speculation with zero evidence that Ukrainians were involved in any way.
Understood.
Any body here know if the German NS contracts with Russia are take or pay, i.e., they have to pay whether they use the gas or not? Not sure how sabotage would be handled in such a cause – force majeure?
Dennis wrote: Ukrainians who want to reduce income from natural gas sales flowing to Russia and may want to divert any gas pipeline flows through Ukraine.
I don’t believe Ukraine had anything to do with it.
European countries on Tuesday raced to investigate unexplained leaks in two Russian gas pipelines running under the Baltic Sea near Sweden and Denmark, infrastructure at the heart of an energy crisis since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Experts and also Russia, which built the network, said the possibility of sabotage could not be ruled out.
Sabotage cannot be ruled out, but there is no proof that it was sabotage either. Anyway, Ukraine would not likely have the technology to puncture an undersea pipeline. How in the hell would they do that, hundreds of miles from their country and deep under the sea?
Agree Ron, except that this wasn’t all that deep as best I can tell likely less than 300 feet.
USA, China and Russia are more likely culprits,
each with various reasons to benefit.
A non-state actor is more likely in my opinion.
So many with something to gain from disruption.
It will be interesting hear what the possible mechanism of damage was.
Hickory, let’s just use logic here. Why would Russia sabotage its own pipeline, cutting off its own income from the sale of gas?
And you might think that is something the CIA or some other US agency might do, but I don’t think so. Despite Trump and his idiotic scheme, Trump is not in charge anymore. And even if he were, no one in his command would likely agree to be his partner in crime. And anyway, there is no reason whatsoever the US would pull such a stunt.
My opinion, for what it’s worth. if it was in shallow water, then someone probably drags an anchor across them by mistake.
Ron, I agree that it wouldn’t be rational for Russia to have blown these pipelines.
Nonetheless I put that possibility at the top given their leadership.
May not be a coincidence that the pipes were blown up within a day or two of Russia declaring annexation of very important portions of the Ukrainian country.
Perhaps to serve as a warning to Europe to back off.
Russia already knew that they will have to find another transport route for their oil and gas.
Russia’s goal is to scare Europe so they disengage in Ukraine. High gas prices are a key part of this goal. It isn’t a great idea, but it is consistent with their recent behavior. Winning the war is more important to the current leadership than commercial relations with Europe.
Also NS2 isn’t in operation, and NS1 has been far below capacity since August, so there isn’t a huge loss. And it drove up gas prices, a short term bonus.
My guess is that it was the Russian government, because it fits the kind of reckless, petulant behavior they have engaged in recently. It reminds me of their decision to keep the airplanes that were leased from Boeing and Airbus. It didn’t bring them any advantage and caused long term damage to the country by burning bridges to its most important trade partners.
Ron,
I don’t think it is likely the Ukrainian government had anything to do with it. Doug’s question was who would want to do that? I suggested Ukrainians might be motivated to take such action.
Now let’s take your suggestion of an anchor or something dragged along the sea bottom, a couple of Ukrainian patriots perhaps that have resettled in Denmark or Sweden rent a boat and “accidently” drag an anchor across the pipelines. They no doubt are very sorry about this unfortunate accident.
As I said before, speculation with zero evidence. Could just be a random accident and that is likely the best explanation.
The main argument against Ukrainian involvement is that they are strongly interested in good relations with Europe. Ukraine needs Europe because they need help fighting Russia, and want to join the EU.
Blowing up European energy infrastructure would be counterproductive, to say the least.
The main argument against Ukraines involvement, imho, is the ability of their special forces to conduct it at such a distance without detection.
And to Alim’s point- It’s also very risky and quite unnecessary… how would Germany respond to Ukraine if they were caught in such an act; how would any nation in Europe respond to learning that Ukraine SF had transited their country to conduct such an act? It wouldn’t get off the drawing board.
“Why Putin would want to blow up Nord Stream 2, and the advantages it gives him-
The Russian leader has a record of weaponizing fuel supplies and believes his people can endure economic pain longer than western Europe…The timing was perfect. A new gas pipeline between Norway and Poland was inaugurated on Tuesday, very close to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, as news of the suspected sabotage emerged.
Warsaw is moving to cut itself entirely off from Russian gas by the end of the year.
The new Baltic Pipe is part of wider moves across Europe to find alternate suppliers to Moscow and build up gas reserves before winter bites. ”
“Her Energy Minister Dan Jorgensen also said the size of the holes in the pipelines indicate that the leaks could not have been caused by an accident such as getting hit by an anchor. The damaged pipelines are at a depth of 70-90 meters below sea level, he added.”
“Meanwhile, Norway said it will strengthen security at its oil and gas installations in the wake of the gas leaks amid reports of drones buzzing its rigs. Newspaper Stavanger Aftenblad reported last week that unidentified drones had been observed at least at six Equinor installations, including at its giant oilfield Johan Sverdrup.”
anti – oil infrastructure missiles (Russia) vs anti – tank and anti – helicoptor (NATO)
LNGUY , hope this is of interest to you . Total German gas imports were 142 bcm in 2021 , 55% from Russia . https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-much-does-germany-need-russian-gas-2022-01-20/
and a snip from an article
” Gazprom is threatening to sue the Ukrainian energy company Naftofgaz for unpaid bills. That would lead to the end of Russian gas transiting Ukraine towards the EU.
As if all of that was not serious enough, Germany is contractually obligated to purchase at least 40 billion cubic meters of Russian gas a year until 2030.
Just say no? They can’t: Gazprom is legally entitled to get paid even without shipping gas. That’s the spirit of a long-term contract. And it’s already happening: because of sanctions, Berlin does not get all the gas it needs but still needs to pay.
Be well .
There’s another guy, this Canadian doofus named Stephen McIntyre. He’s an all-star conspiracy theorist that got his start in climate change denialism, see #ClimateGate. There isn’t one conspiracy involving the deep state that he isn’t all over within one day. So a day after this Nordstream pipeline incident occurred, he has created an intricate plot culled from Google searches (I’m sure) to make it seem like he has exposed a secretive operation run by the USA military. https://twitter.com/ClimateAudit/status/1574938075461197825
Thanks Paul.
I get a few clients from time to time who appear to be into the manosphere/new age masculinity movement. The key similarity between them all seems to be that they can’t get a girlfriend, or indeed even get laid; likely secondary to personality issues, as they all look reasonable enough.
I make small talk in the breaks and students usually ask about my interests; ‘future trends analysis’ is my reply. To this, one student recently asked if I’d heard of Andrew Tate, and sent me some of his links; needless to say, that student will not be back, ever.
I flag ’em and don’t let them get past the ‘intro too’ course.
I don’t see psychopathy in him. He has some neuroticism which is understandable because he is living in a war zone.
What an idiot this guy Gonzalo Lira is. I have heard from other sources that the only way this could have happened without being detected was with pipeline pigs. Simply, pack a pig with explosives and push it through the pipeline. Simple. And the pipeline originates in Russia.
To believe the Americans did it is absurd. Anyone who thinks Biden would approve of this is a blooming idiot. On the other hand, Putin would murder his mother if it served his purpose.
This man is just an American hater. He just spouts venom and hatred, nothing else. He is also an antisemite. He says the Jews started the war. Gonzalo Lira — The Ukraine Thing is Jewish
Golanzo Lira is a Chilean Roman Catholic living in Ukraine. He says Jewish billionaires PURPOSELY started this war to destroy Russia and unseat Putin.
“This is what its all about–and still STEAL Crimea for Kolomoyskyi. Soros, Bloomberg, Kolomoyskyi, Tom Steyer, Zuckerberg–THEY ALL WORK TOGETHER–It is the Jewish mafia but on the World Stage”
What a blooming idiot!
Hi Ron, I guess manosphere dating coaches and misogynist comedians are now foreign policy talking heads. I wonder why The Lefty Greens don’t seem to need dating coaches, maybe because it’s not a total sausage party? I had thought a threesome was three people PLUS yourself, apparently that’s a four-way.
I was considering the same thing about demolitions delivery by way of utility PIG. PIGs start their run at the Landfall Facilities at Portovaya. On that basis it seems that it is plausible that a rouge element within Russia conducted the sabotage; that is to say it was perhaps not an act of policy, but instead was perhaps a few accelerationist type dudes on site with access to some explosives, a utility pig, and a pig launching station. A visual examination of the pipe will indicate where upon it the blast had occurred.
I forecast an increase in accelerationist groups trynna fuck shit up all over the place.
A lot more of the blast would have gone down the pipe if it was detonated within it, as compared to on its exterior, and it would perhaps cause damages to distal components; maybe find a utility pig has been launched somewhere?
Some folks seem to feel that ‘a woke army is a weak army’; Pompeo recently tweeted it. I feel that Russia getting its ass handed to it in Ukraine, first with ATGM and MANPADS when they tired their thunder run, and now with various artillery as they have step back to duel at distance, is sufficient evidence to disprove that hypothesis. Russia is basically an artillery army with lots of tanks. Russia was until recently considered a preeminent and near dominant artillery force in Europe. That situation has changed. Wokeness, or lack of it, has not appeared to play a factor.
Rita- I wholeheartedly disagree…
racist conspiracy theories and those who espouse them are indeed a severe manifestation of psychopathology.
Racism/ethnic hatred is taught by a child’s peers, elders and the culture at large (such as the church). People are not born with hatred. And that hatred carves out a big rotten Black Hole in the psyche.
I think that is why the poster of this topic source is named ‘Hole in Head’. He is a victim and seems to be proud of the disability. Doesn’t even appear to be self-aware of it, or perhaps he is getting getting paid handsomely for propaganda distribution.
I’ll be blunt- its an example of espousing neoNazism ideology and I’d be in favor of banning such hatred.
Let the idiots learn to focus on the actual facts of an issue rather than foolishly resorting to some sort of false blame conspiracy/fantasy world that actually results in the death of people in the real world.
Confidence & Accuracy vs Information — In one of CIA Psychologist Richard Heuer, Jr.’s experiments, experienced horse-race handicappers were shown a long list of variables that included data related to the recent performances of the horses, the weight of the jockeys, the time since the last race, the weather conditions, etc… The result of this particular experiment is abundantly clear. On one hand the accuracy of the prediction did not improve with additional information. On the other hand, their confidence in the accuracy of their predictions increased significantly as they were provided with more information.
Confidence & Accuracy vs Information
Not at all surprising that a schmuck like Hole in Head would try to pollute this site with idiot and racist trash, in fact it is par for the course with him.
Winter forecast for Europe is not far from average.
“Looking at the surface temperature probability forecast over Europe, we see an interesting pattern. Most of the continent is in the average temperature range, with a slight probability of higher than average temperatures in central parts.”
50 year anniversary
“Written by meteorologist John Sawyer, the paper – entitled “Man-made carbon dioxide and the greenhouse effect” – was published by the journal Nature in 1972.”
And just think, that was within the peak time frame when scientists, generally, believed a new ice age was on the way.
I don’t think that’s true. Without re-looking it up, as I recall one of the news magazines (Newsweeek I think), ran an article by a lone researcher who had proposed that as a possibility and it went what today would be called “viral” at the time. Climate deniers dug that up a few years ago and used it to supposedly prove that scientists are always wrong about things that cost the far right money. See WUWT for an example of their methods.
Jjhman,
I appreciate all of the comments you contribute.
The vast majority of scientists realized pretty quickly that any longer term trend (whatever it was) was at high risk of being swamped by the CO2 global warming phenomena.
So did many of the worlds citizens who were paying attention.
Yes, in the mid 1890s, the Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius first predicted global warming from CO2 emissions; we were taught this in Geology 101. To be fair, other scientists before Arrhenius determined that temperature was regulated by the balance of incoming solar radiation versus outgoing infrared.
Joseph Fourier in 1824 pointed out that the visible sunlight reaching the earth was insufficient to warm the earth to its current temperature. The earth and moon are both about the same distance from the sun, and he speculated that the earth is warmer than the moon due to the atmosphere acting as an ‘insulating blanket’, and further speculated that some gases in the atmosphere may be found to absorb ‘dark energy’, i.e. infrared radiation.
I’ve never heard anyone anywhere argue that Fourier was wrong.
Computing the earth’s equilibrium temperature and the difference with the actual temperature is a homework assignment for first year college students now.
The science of climate change follows from Fourier.
One of my first jobs involved measuring particulate matter in the atmosphere, as the question had been raised whether all the pollution we were dumping could reduce incident sunlight and cause a drop in temperature. But I don’t think it was ever seriously considered that these and other effects would swamp the man-made changes to the radiation environment.
True, Fourier was among the first to propose that the Earth’s atmosphere acts to raise the planet’s temperature.
scientists realized pretty quickly that any longer term trend
Earth was getting cooler for the last 4000 years.
Then we started pumping Co2 into the air.
Off to the races! The question now- how many of us will survive (if any)?
I’m not sure how many truly grasp what just happened tonight with Hurricane Ian. It went through a full eyewall replacement cycle, hardly blinked, grew by 50% (as measured by its RMW), and delivered the 3rd highest storm surge since 1913 to Key West in the process.
I know of someone deeply involved with the current situation in Florida that doesn’t get it, won’t get it, refuses to get it and is certain that not getting it is in his best interests: Ron Desantis.
The idea that the US sabotaged the gas pipelines is the stupidest conspiracy theory that ever came down the pike. Only an ignorant Trumpite could ever believe such a stupid conspiracy theory. When, dear God, are some people going to start living in the real world?
He’s more a Putinite than a Trumpite. Not that there is much difference, as this hastily deleted CPAC tweet shows.
Proudly flying the flag of the Russian Federation is a nice touch. They need to register as foreign agents. The Republicans are now Putin’s mouthpiece.
Don’t forget the drones at 6 different locations!!! that were buzzing Norway’s oil rigs.
This strongly suggests a state actor.
While Putin blowing up his own pipeline is baffling, if he thinks Peak Oil is coming…..Don’t underestimate what he will do!
And Putin is surrounded by oil experts
Energy shortages = make Putin more in control ( which is what he lives for IMO )
It was a well placed underwater demolition. That alone suggests a state actor.
If you haven´t seen the C-span video from feb 7, please do so.
Please post your preferred link to the video to minimize ambiguity.
Do you feel the video is evidence of who blew up the pipeline?
When conducting Analysis of Competing Hypothesis, for example ‘Did USA Blow it Up or Did Russia Blow it Up?’ it is important to look for evidence, not another sub-hypothesis.
There’s nothing in this piece about the actual price of this green steel, but I’m thinking that a five or ten yearsl down the road it might actually be cheaper than ordinary good steel made from low grade ores, because H2 is going to be cheap too, eventually……
Assuming that Old Man Business As Usual manages to stay on his feet and we build enough wind and solar farms to prevent fossil fuel depletion from taking us out…… presuming fossil fuel POLLUTION doesn’t takes us out sooner.
I don’t personally see a whole lot of wind and solar capacity going to waste, once there’s enough to have an excess above current demand two or three days a week…… and we’re going to have to overbuild by a factor of two or three anyway.
There’s a dozen grand scale potential uses for such “surplus” electricity. Desalinating water and making H2 will likely be a couple of the very biggest.
I think that’s great. I’ve been assuming that steel production would be one industry that would continue to require coke for carbonizing and some other fossil fuel for the high temperatures and high energy demand that steelmaking requires.
It almost makes me hopeful, almost.
Hurricane Ian has been devastating but may be a minor foretaste of what’s to come. The Gulf’s water are going to keep gaining energy so the surface temperature will continue to rise but also the high temperatures will extend deeper so that hurricanes will not see the benefit of churning up the cooler waters. Most gulf hurricanes now see rapid intensification over a few hours as they approach land. I think there is a theoretical limit to hurricane strength imposed by thermodynamics and fluid dynamics but they have some margin to that yet and in not too many years we could see storms strong enough that, once they make landfall, they completely destroy everything for several miles inland.
“For the last quarter-century, water temperatures have been running above average at the height of a cycle called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (or AMO).
The AMO can greatly impact the amount of activity in an Atlantic hurricane season. To put it into perspective, “A positive phase of the AMO typically leads to 3-5 times more major Atlantic Basin hurricane activity than does a negative phase,” says the team at CSU.”
Yet there is much discussion as to whether the AMO is even a real cycle, that from recent papers and press releases from Prof. Michael Mann who claims to have coined the acronym some years ago.
So the cross-roads is that no one knows whether natural variability or AGW is contributing to any extremes being reported, including this recent hurricane.
The model I’m pursuing is based on solving the fluid dynamics of the ocean layer. It works very well in reproducing the intricate details of the AMO time series. Published this like 4 years ago but no one seems to be interested because (surprise) they’re earth scientists!
One of these days a machine learning experiment will also discover this pattern and perhaps then it will get some attention.
There were much more stringent building codes put into place after Hurricane Andrew. Notice how much of the construction dating from the 1990’s and beyond hasn’t been getting destroyed in these major storms supposedly enhanced by “climate change” forces. Another thing is, these are structures sitting right along the coast, or very near. If these aren’t getting destroyed, I doubt similar structures several miles inland are going to get destroyed like you claim, because hurricanes are never as strong several miles inland as they are right along coastal areas.
“supposedly enhanced by “climate change” forces”
The poster clearly has access to information not available to scientists.
85% of the world’s population will live in the grip of stringent austerity measures by next year
Excellent discussion on the present and future of oil production and investing in the space by Shubham Garg. Many reasons why a dramatic oil production decline is coming from a lack of resources, rising costs and huge decline rates and even apathy of the needed workers.
Izzy, I have reposted this over on the petroleum thread. I watched just over half of this video a month or so ago. A big mistake was that I did not watch the whole thing. Beginning at about minute 47 of this video we get the real true story of what is happening in the world of declining oil production.
It is amazing to watch this just for the experience of watching someone with a shit-ton of knowledge reel off extemporaneously what he knows, without a single “um,” or “ah,” or “you know.” It’s phenomenal.
Stunning room-temperature-superconductor claim is retracted
From BBC’s World News.
HUGE GAS FLARING EMISSIONS NEVER REPORTED
“Using World Bank flare-tracking satellite data, we were able to identify the emissions from each of these sites. We estimate that in 2021, almost 20 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent went unreported from these flares. That is equal to the greenhouse gas emissions 4.4 million cars would produce in a year…”
And, “If all the natural gas flared globally were captured and used it could replace more than nine-tenths of Europe’s gas imports from Russia, based on figures from the International Energy Agency.”
Up above our resident extreme right and fascist conspiracy lover posted a character assassination note on Anne Applebaum. Same people who think Obama was a Moslem plot or that George Soros philantropy aimed at furthering democracy in the former Soviet Union is evil, seem to think they get some advantage by mis-characterization Anne Applebaum.
I think the fascist and authoritarian conspirator crowd is threatened by democracy and multiculturalism, and these people who speak up for it.
“Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes & even seas that aren’t too choppy” ~ Elon Musk via Twitter sept 29 2022
Are we saved yet?
“Are we saved yet?”
Yes, everyone’s worried about fucking maintaining a drivearound culture.
Hi Mike,
You’re right about the “drive around” culture in the ultimate sense.
We wouldn’t need personal cars to survive in a rationally organized world.
But in the irrational world we live in, they’re essential to our economic survival in the short term.
And if we don’t survive the short term………. well, that makes the long term an academic question.
It will be the rich that drive around in their fancy coal-gas-battery vehicles. The rest of us will have to walk or go fuck ourselves.
“coal-gas-battery vehicles”
I’m pretty sure this comes from page 7 of the climate-denier phrase book, three pages after “abiotic oil” but before “sunspots”
No. It’s widely recognized that batteries are simply proxies for the systems that charge them.
And by the way–go fuck yourself.
‘The rest’ will soon be kicking in teeth and absconding with the movables.
You guys are touching on huge issue.
The energy ‘have and have nots’ disparity will likely be much more severe on the way down than it was on the way up.
This applies within a country as well as between countries.
And it has been extremely uneven on the way up.
This is hugely on my mind now. The asymmetry, I suspect, is going to be appalling.
I imagine rich westerners parading around in their plug-ins recharged by Superior Virtue, whilst the rest of the world rots away.
During the Bronze Age Collapse, for example, Egypt and Assyria persisted, while whole cities & civilizations vanished.
Americans will complain about the stench of dead bodies wafting over the oceans.
Gen Z “I’m going to Mars” dweebs are in for a surprise.
Something positive, to my mind at least.
WEBB REVEALS A GALAXY SPARKLING WITH THE UNIVERSE’S OLDEST STAR CLUSTERS
“Using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), researchers from the CAnadian NIRISS Unbiased Cluster Survey (CANUCS) team have identified the most distant globular clusters ever discovered. These dense groups of millions of stars may be relics that contain the first and oldest stars in the universe.”
There seems to be an emerging consensus that Putin is responsible.
Dictators backed into a corner occasionally pull stunts, hurting themselves almost as much or even more than their enemies.
NATO knows who did it. That is why they are spending money to protect the infrastructure.
Putin is GOING FOR IT.
The way Putin’s going he’ll be hanging from a tank barrel.
Put a pin in it.
The reason he conducts meetings one on one at 60 paces is not due to covid paranoia, it’s an anti assassination control measure.
He’s right handed (possibly ambidextrous and/or left eye dominant), carry’s a pistol, and in the past when in winter dress and meeting the troops he did often not wear a glove on his right hand. When this was noted by watchers he stopped wearing gloves all together under such circumstances. In poker they call it a ‘tell’.
Putin’s lost the plot.
Putin is using “food tasters” and “body doubles”.
He resides in a nuclear bunker under some mountain.
He is in a dangerous mindset
I don’t want to jump on conclusions as of who did it. But what this situation implies, is that attacks on critical energy infrastructure is an act very close to war. It is under the soft war or hybrid war umbrella. Imagine missile strikes to take out energy installations… it could be as damaging as a tactical nuke strike or more. The world we live in is fragile, but robost enough that the most important things affecting standard of living move slowly in long term trends overall. Without an international order (which is an extended form of law and order) we will move much more rapidly towards a collapse of civilisations. If you could have asked people a few thousand of years ago if law and order was important; the brightest would have said it is of outmost importance.
Interesting bit of news regarding Queensland in Australia, with an ambitious renewable energy (or was it electricity?) target plan of 80% by 2035.
A plan that involves an extensive use of pumped hydro in the 5gw+ range and thousands of high voltage grid km. The plan looks robust in my eyes. It is so much easier to electrify the economy from a position of strength – Australia is one of those places that can implement the renewable 80% grid with fossil fuel back up much more easily than other countries. Pumped hydro is looked at as more reliable than mass battery storage for electricity. If you can build it, it is a great long term choice as the energy loss of a up/down trip between lower and upper reservoir is an acceptable 30%.
Yep. And thats the kind of effort it takes.
Elon Musk’s Texts Shatter the Myth of the Tech Genius
I think this will happen is a lot of places as renewables continue to ruin the profitability of power plants After all, why spend money on a grid if you are losing money generating electricity?
Not good. And this is just the U.S.
GAS FLARES VASTLY UNDERPERFORM, CAUSING GREATER CLIMATE IMPACT
Flaring—burning off unwanted natural gas from oil and gas wells—releases five times more of the potent greenhouse gas methane into the atmosphere over the United States than previously assumed.
INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC METHANE SET ANOTHER RECORD DURING 2021. CARBON DIOXIDE LEVELS ALSO RECORD A BIG JUMP.
NOAA’s preliminary analysis showed the annual increase in atmospheric methane during 2021 was 17 parts per billion (ppb), the largest annual increase recorded since systematic measurements began in 1983. The increase during 2020 was 15.3 ppb. Atmospheric methane levels averaged 1,895.7 ppb during 2021, or around 162% greater than pre-industrial levels. From NOAA’s observations, scientists estimate global methane emissions in 2021 are 15% higher than the 1984-2006 period.
Greenland is experiencing a rather interesting episode of late season surface melt, still.
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/
Here’s the 3 day max 2 meter temperature
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_arc-lea_t2max_3-day.png
Southern end of the Greenland ice sheet is getting rain.
You may have seen this but it has some interesting info on what’s happened with the melt this year and is happening now.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-the-greenland-ice-sheet-fared-in-2022/
Cheers George, I hadn’t read that one yet.
There’s a lot of good stuff on the current melt event and past events with plenty of explanation at Jason Box’s site: https://www.youtube.com/c/jasonboxclimate
Excellent! Thanks George. Greenland ice sheet fascinates me.
Interesting,
And, from your post: “From 1 April 2002 to 31 August 2021, the period common to both datasets, the Greenland ice sheet has lost approximately 4,500Gt of ice. This is equivalent to 13mm of global average sea level rise. For context, a recent study estimated that climate change to date means that Greenland is already committed to “at least 274mm” of future sea level rise.”
“Greenland last saw an annual net gain of ice in 1996”
Its going to very interesting to see what the scenario is in another week or two.
I used to see discussions of the thickness and age of Arctic sea ice, as well as just the extent.
What’s the average thickness nowadays, compared to earlier?
Havana is going to be hit by a category 4 hurricane and Tampa will be brushed by a category 3 or 4 based on latest track estimates.
Anyone seen the winter weather outlook for Europe?
It’s finally raining here, thank goodness. There are some predictions of a mil winter, but it’s mostly guesswork.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/An-Oil-Supply-Shock-May-Be-Imminent.html
I’ll post this one in both threads.
But the political aspects of this potential oil shock are likely to get more comments in this one.
If it happens, and I personally think the odds are pretty high it will, I hope like hell it doesn’t get bad until after election day.
OFM,
OPEC, IEA, and EIA all think the oil market will be relatively balanced in 2023 and oversupplied in the second half of 2022.
See comment linked below in the other thread.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/norway-august-oil-production-rebounds/#comment-746589
Note that my expectation is that they all are overestimating future supply and that the oil market will be tight unless there is a severe recession in 2023, in that case the market might be balanced.
Interesting link on Greenland ice sheet
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/unusually-large-late-melt-spike-greenland-september-2022
Fascinating stuff, thanks.
Thar she blows
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/
Check out the September 26th spike to approx 15% surface melt.
It looks like someone blew up the two gas pipelines from Russia to Germany.
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1574750953504382980?s=20&t=UM5K3POiXEQhV6m2DpyhcA
Who in hell would have anything to gain from a stunt like that?
Doug,
Ukrainians who want to reduce income from natural gas sales flowing to Russia and may want to divert any gas pipeline flows through Ukraine.
Dennis,
Good answer. Thanks.
Doug,
You’re welcome.
Note that my guess is pure speculation with zero evidence that Ukrainians were involved in any way.
Understood.
Any body here know if the German NS contracts with Russia are take or pay, i.e., they have to pay whether they use the gas or not? Not sure how sabotage would be handled in such a cause – force majeure?
Dennis wrote: Ukrainians who want to reduce income from natural gas sales flowing to Russia and may want to divert any gas pipeline flows through Ukraine.
I don’t believe Ukraine had anything to do with it.
Mystery leaks hit Russian undersea gas pipelines to Europe
European countries on Tuesday raced to investigate unexplained leaks in two Russian gas pipelines running under the Baltic Sea near Sweden and Denmark, infrastructure at the heart of an energy crisis since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Experts and also Russia, which built the network, said the possibility of sabotage could not be ruled out.
Sabotage cannot be ruled out, but there is no proof that it was sabotage either. Anyway, Ukraine would not likely have the technology to puncture an undersea pipeline. How in the hell would they do that, hundreds of miles from their country and deep under the sea?
Agree Ron, except that this wasn’t all that deep as best I can tell likely less than 300 feet.
USA, China and Russia are more likely culprits,
each with various reasons to benefit.
A non-state actor is more likely in my opinion.
So many with something to gain from disruption.
It will be interesting hear what the possible mechanism of damage was.
Hickory, let’s just use logic here. Why would Russia sabotage its own pipeline, cutting off its own income from the sale of gas?
And you might think that is something the CIA or some other US agency might do, but I don’t think so. Despite Trump and his idiotic scheme, Trump is not in charge anymore. And even if he were, no one in his command would likely agree to be his partner in crime. And anyway, there is no reason whatsoever the US would pull such a stunt.
My opinion, for what it’s worth. if it was in shallow water, then someone probably drags an anchor across them by mistake.
Ron, I agree that it wouldn’t be rational for Russia to have blown these pipelines.
Nonetheless I put that possibility at the top given their leadership.
May not be a coincidence that the pipes were blown up within a day or two of Russia declaring annexation of very important portions of the Ukrainian country.
Perhaps to serve as a warning to Europe to back off.
Russia already knew that they will have to find another transport route for their oil and gas.
Russia’s goal is to scare Europe so they disengage in Ukraine. High gas prices are a key part of this goal. It isn’t a great idea, but it is consistent with their recent behavior. Winning the war is more important to the current leadership than commercial relations with Europe.
Also NS2 isn’t in operation, and NS1 has been far below capacity since August, so there isn’t a huge loss. And it drove up gas prices, a short term bonus.
My guess is that it was the Russian government, because it fits the kind of reckless, petulant behavior they have engaged in recently. It reminds me of their decision to keep the airplanes that were leased from Boeing and Airbus. It didn’t bring them any advantage and caused long term damage to the country by burning bridges to its most important trade partners.
Ron,
I don’t think it is likely the Ukrainian government had anything to do with it. Doug’s question was who would want to do that? I suggested Ukrainians might be motivated to take such action.
Now let’s take your suggestion of an anchor or something dragged along the sea bottom, a couple of Ukrainian patriots perhaps that have resettled in Denmark or Sweden rent a boat and “accidently” drag an anchor across the pipelines. They no doubt are very sorry about this unfortunate accident.
As I said before, speculation with zero evidence. Could just be a random accident and that is likely the best explanation.
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1574750953504382980?s=20&t=UM5K3POiXEQhV6m2DpyhcA
and then this:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Norway-Investigates-Mysterious-Drone-Sightings-Near-Offshore-Oil-Gas-Fields.html
Rgds
WP
2.3 on the Richter scale…… doesn’t sound like an anchor that is dragged. More like explosives.
rgds
WP
NATO says it was sabotage.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-calls-nord-stream-leaks-acts-sabotage-2022-09-28/
The main argument against Ukrainian involvement is that they are strongly interested in good relations with Europe. Ukraine needs Europe because they need help fighting Russia, and want to join the EU.
Blowing up European energy infrastructure would be counterproductive, to say the least.
The main argument against Ukraines involvement, imho, is the ability of their special forces to conduct it at such a distance without detection.
And to Alim’s point- It’s also very risky and quite unnecessary… how would Germany respond to Ukraine if they were caught in such an act; how would any nation in Europe respond to learning that Ukraine SF had transited their country to conduct such an act? It wouldn’t get off the drawing board.
“Why Putin would want to blow up Nord Stream 2, and the advantages it gives him-
The Russian leader has a record of weaponizing fuel supplies and believes his people can endure economic pain longer than western Europe…The timing was perfect. A new gas pipeline between Norway and Poland was inaugurated on Tuesday, very close to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, as news of the suspected sabotage emerged.
Warsaw is moving to cut itself entirely off from Russian gas by the end of the year.
The new Baltic Pipe is part of wider moves across Europe to find alternate suppliers to Moscow and build up gas reserves before winter bites. ”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/09/27/putins-nord-stream-2-sabotage-sends-warning-will-blow-pipes/
I add that the timing link with annexation of Ukraine is no coincidence. Its a warning to cease interference with the invasion and territory grab.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11253841/Nord-Stream-pipelines-supplying-gas-Russia-suffer-unprecedented-damage-start-leaking.html
Russian Frogmen?
“Her Energy Minister Dan Jorgensen also said the size of the holes in the pipelines indicate that the leaks could not have been caused by an accident such as getting hit by an anchor. The damaged pipelines are at a depth of 70-90 meters below sea level, he added.”
“Meanwhile, Norway said it will strengthen security at its oil and gas installations in the wake of the gas leaks amid reports of drones buzzing its rigs. Newspaper Stavanger Aftenblad reported last week that unidentified drones had been observed at least at six Equinor installations, including at its giant oilfield Johan Sverdrup.”
anti – oil infrastructure missiles (Russia) vs anti – tank and anti – helicoptor (NATO)
LNGUY , hope this is of interest to you . Total German gas imports were 142 bcm in 2021 , 55% from Russia .
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-much-does-germany-need-russian-gas-2022-01-20/
and a snip from an article
” Gazprom is threatening to sue the Ukrainian energy company Naftofgaz for unpaid bills. That would lead to the end of Russian gas transiting Ukraine towards the EU.
As if all of that was not serious enough, Germany is contractually obligated to purchase at least 40 billion cubic meters of Russian gas a year until 2030.
Just say no? They can’t: Gazprom is legally entitled to get paid even without shipping gas. That’s the spirit of a long-term contract. And it’s already happening: because of sanctions, Berlin does not get all the gas it needs but still needs to pay.
Be well .
Doug , some threads . Occam’s razor .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6IIwltTM4Q&t=15s&ab_channel=TheRoundtable%E2%80%94GonzaloLira
Interesting stuff. Thanks. Obviously I live in a simplistic bubble world.
Not a crazy thesis but no data / evidence to support it. That doesn’t mean that it can’t be correct though.
rgds
WP
WP , logic in the space of possibilities .
FWIW, I despise Gonzalo Lira, a real sociopath.
“FWIW, I despise Gonzalo Lira, a real sociopath.”
I’m in complete agreement.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/gonzalo-lira-is-a-pro-putin-shill-in-ukraine-and-a-sleazy-manosphere-dating-coach
That guys a dating coach?! Holy Fuck lol
There’s another guy, this Canadian doofus named Stephen McIntyre. He’s an all-star conspiracy theorist that got his start in climate change denialism, see #ClimateGate. There isn’t one conspiracy involving the deep state that he isn’t all over within one day. So a day after this Nordstream pipeline incident occurred, he has created an intricate plot culled from Google searches (I’m sure) to make it seem like he has exposed a secretive operation run by the USA military.
https://twitter.com/ClimateAudit/status/1574938075461197825
Thanks Paul.
I get a few clients from time to time who appear to be into the manosphere/new age masculinity movement. The key similarity between them all seems to be that they can’t get a girlfriend, or indeed even get laid; likely secondary to personality issues, as they all look reasonable enough.
I make small talk in the breaks and students usually ask about my interests; ‘future trends analysis’ is my reply. To this, one student recently asked if I’d heard of Andrew Tate, and sent me some of his links; needless to say, that student will not be back, ever.
I flag ’em and don’t let them get past the ‘intro too’ course.
I don’t see psychopathy in him. He has some neuroticism which is understandable because he is living in a war zone.
What an idiot this guy Gonzalo Lira is. I have heard from other sources that the only way this could have happened without being detected was with pipeline pigs. Simply, pack a pig with explosives and push it through the pipeline. Simple. And the pipeline originates in Russia.
To believe the Americans did it is absurd. Anyone who thinks Biden would approve of this is a blooming idiot. On the other hand, Putin would murder his mother if it served his purpose.
This man is just an American hater. He just spouts venom and hatred, nothing else. He is also an antisemite. He says the Jews started the war.
Gonzalo Lira — The Ukraine Thing is Jewish
Golanzo Lira is a Chilean Roman Catholic living in Ukraine. He says Jewish billionaires PURPOSELY started this war to destroy Russia and unseat Putin.
“This is what its all about–and still STEAL Crimea for Kolomoyskyi. Soros, Bloomberg, Kolomoyskyi, Tom Steyer, Zuckerberg–THEY ALL WORK TOGETHER–It is the Jewish mafia but on the World Stage”
What a blooming idiot!
Hi Ron, I guess manosphere dating coaches and misogynist comedians are now foreign policy talking heads. I wonder why The Lefty Greens don’t seem to need dating coaches, maybe because it’s not a total sausage party? I had thought a threesome was three people PLUS yourself, apparently that’s a four-way.
Global culture wars: Some far right groups in the U.S. are taking a pro-Russia stance
https://www.npr.org/2022/01/31/1077064951/global-culture-wars-some-far-right-groups-in-the-u-s-are-taking-a-pro-russia-sta
I was considering the same thing about demolitions delivery by way of utility PIG. PIGs start their run at the Landfall Facilities at Portovaya. On that basis it seems that it is plausible that a rouge element within Russia conducted the sabotage; that is to say it was perhaps not an act of policy, but instead was perhaps a few accelerationist type dudes on site with access to some explosives, a utility pig, and a pig launching station. A visual examination of the pipe will indicate where upon it the blast had occurred.
I forecast an increase in accelerationist groups trynna fuck shit up all over the place.
Accelerationist Guide Calls for Metcalf-Style Attacks on ‘Sitting Duck’ Electricity Infrastructure
https://www.hstoday.us/featured/accelerationist-guide-calls-for-metcalf-style-attacks-on-sitting-duck-electricity-infrastructure/
Understanding Accelerationist Narratives: ‘There Is No Political Solution’
https://gnet-research.org/2021/09/02/understanding-accelerationist-narratives-there-is-no-political-solution/
A lot more of the blast would have gone down the pipe if it was detonated within it, as compared to on its exterior, and it would perhaps cause damages to distal components; maybe find a utility pig has been launched somewhere?
Some folks seem to feel that ‘a woke army is a weak army’; Pompeo recently tweeted it. I feel that Russia getting its ass handed to it in Ukraine, first with ATGM and MANPADS when they tired their thunder run, and now with various artillery as they have step back to duel at distance, is sufficient evidence to disprove that hypothesis. Russia is basically an artillery army with lots of tanks. Russia was until recently considered a preeminent and near dominant artillery force in Europe. That situation has changed. Wokeness, or lack of it, has not appeared to play a factor.
https://youtu.be/nsodbPkjO3c
Rita- I wholeheartedly disagree…
racist conspiracy theories and those who espouse them are indeed a severe manifestation of psychopathology.
Racism/ethnic hatred is taught by a child’s peers, elders and the culture at large (such as the church). People are not born with hatred. And that hatred carves out a big rotten Black Hole in the psyche.
I think that is why the poster of this topic source is named ‘Hole in Head’. He is a victim and seems to be proud of the disability. Doesn’t even appear to be self-aware of it, or perhaps he is getting getting paid handsomely for propaganda distribution.
I’ll be blunt- its an example of espousing neoNazism ideology and I’d be in favor of banning such hatred.
Let the idiots learn to focus on the actual facts of an issue rather than foolishly resorting to some sort of false blame conspiracy/fantasy world that actually results in the death of people in the real world.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analysis_of_competing_hypotheses
https://www.ialeia.org/docs/Psychology_of_Intelligence_Analysis.pdf
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richards_Heuer
Confidence & Accuracy vs Information — In one of CIA Psychologist Richard Heuer, Jr.’s experiments, experienced horse-race handicappers were shown a long list of variables that included data related to the recent performances of the horses, the weight of the jockeys, the time since the last race, the weather conditions, etc… The result of this particular experiment is abundantly clear. On one hand the accuracy of the prediction did not improve with additional information. On the other hand, their confidence in the accuracy of their predictions increased significantly as they were provided with more information.
Confidence & Accuracy vs Information
Not at all surprising that a schmuck like Hole in Head would try to pollute this site with idiot and racist trash, in fact it is par for the course with him.
Winter forecast for Europe is not far from average.
“Looking at the surface temperature probability forecast over Europe, we see an interesting pattern. Most of the continent is in the average temperature range, with a slight probability of higher than average temperatures in central parts.”
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-forecast-2022-2023-season-weather-update-united-states-europe-fa/
50 year anniversary
“Written by meteorologist John Sawyer, the paper – entitled “Man-made carbon dioxide and the greenhouse effect” – was published by the journal Nature in 1972.”
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the-50th-anniversary-of-a-remarkable-global-warming-prediction/
And just think, that was within the peak time frame when scientists, generally, believed a new ice age was on the way.
I don’t think that’s true. Without re-looking it up, as I recall one of the news magazines (Newsweeek I think), ran an article by a lone researcher who had proposed that as a possibility and it went what today would be called “viral” at the time. Climate deniers dug that up a few years ago and used it to supposedly prove that scientists are always wrong about things that cost the far right money. See WUWT for an example of their methods.
Jjhman,
I appreciate all of the comments you contribute.
The vast majority of scientists realized pretty quickly that any longer term trend (whatever it was) was at high risk of being swamped by the CO2 global warming phenomena.
So did many of the worlds citizens who were paying attention.
Yes, in the mid 1890s, the Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius first predicted global warming from CO2 emissions; we were taught this in Geology 101. To be fair, other scientists before Arrhenius determined that temperature was regulated by the balance of incoming solar radiation versus outgoing infrared.
Joseph Fourier in 1824 pointed out that the visible sunlight reaching the earth was insufficient to warm the earth to its current temperature. The earth and moon are both about the same distance from the sun, and he speculated that the earth is warmer than the moon due to the atmosphere acting as an ‘insulating blanket’, and further speculated that some gases in the atmosphere may be found to absorb ‘dark energy’, i.e. infrared radiation.
I’ve never heard anyone anywhere argue that Fourier was wrong.
Computing the earth’s equilibrium temperature and the difference with the actual temperature is a homework assignment for first year college students now.
The science of climate change follows from Fourier.
One of my first jobs involved measuring particulate matter in the atmosphere, as the question had been raised whether all the pollution we were dumping could reduce incident sunlight and cause a drop in temperature. But I don’t think it was ever seriously considered that these and other effects would swamp the man-made changes to the radiation environment.
True, Fourier was among the first to propose that the Earth’s atmosphere acts to raise the planet’s temperature.
scientists realized pretty quickly that any longer term trend
Earth was getting cooler for the last 4000 years.
Then we started pumping Co2 into the air.
Off to the races! The question now- how many of us will survive (if any)?
https://andymaypetrophysicist.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/central_greenland_temperature_since-4000bp.pdf
Citation? Which scientists?
I’m not sure how many truly grasp what just happened tonight with Hurricane Ian. It went through a full eyewall replacement cycle, hardly blinked, grew by 50% (as measured by its RMW), and delivered the 3rd highest storm surge since 1913 to Key West in the process.
I know of someone deeply involved with the current situation in Florida that doesn’t get it, won’t get it, refuses to get it and is certain that not getting it is in his best interests: Ron Desantis.
This article is also on Forbes but behind paywall . Forbes would not carry this accusation normally . The ex Polish Defense minister is married to ultra neocon Anne Applebaum .
https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/us-blew-up-russian-gas-pipelines?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
The idea that the US sabotaged the gas pipelines is the stupidest conspiracy theory that ever came down the pike. Only an ignorant Trumpite could ever believe such a stupid conspiracy theory. When, dear God, are some people going to start living in the real world?
He’s more a Putinite than a Trumpite. Not that there is much difference, as this hastily deleted CPAC tweet shows.
https://twitter.com/soledadobrien/status/1576032796220366849
Proudly flying the flag of the Russian Federation is a nice touch. They need to register as foreign agents. The Republicans are now Putin’s mouthpiece.
Don’t forget the drones at 6 different locations!!! that were buzzing Norway’s oil rigs.
This strongly suggests a state actor.
While Putin blowing up his own pipeline is baffling, if he thinks Peak Oil is coming…..Don’t underestimate what he will do!
And Putin is surrounded by oil experts
Energy shortages = make Putin more in control ( which is what he lives for IMO )
It was a well placed underwater demolition. That alone suggests a state actor.
If you haven´t seen the C-span video from feb 7, please do so.
Please post your preferred link to the video to minimize ambiguity.
Do you feel the video is evidence of who blew up the pipeline?
When conducting Analysis of Competing Hypothesis, for example ‘Did USA Blow it Up or Did Russia Blow it Up?’ it is important to look for evidence, not another sub-hypothesis.
https://newatlas.com/energy/thyssenkrupp-green-steel/
There’s nothing in this piece about the actual price of this green steel, but I’m thinking that a five or ten yearsl down the road it might actually be cheaper than ordinary good steel made from low grade ores, because H2 is going to be cheap too, eventually……
Assuming that Old Man Business As Usual manages to stay on his feet and we build enough wind and solar farms to prevent fossil fuel depletion from taking us out…… presuming fossil fuel POLLUTION doesn’t takes us out sooner.
I don’t personally see a whole lot of wind and solar capacity going to waste, once there’s enough to have an excess above current demand two or three days a week…… and we’re going to have to overbuild by a factor of two or three anyway.
There’s a dozen grand scale potential uses for such “surplus” electricity. Desalinating water and making H2 will likely be a couple of the very biggest.
I think that’s great. I’ve been assuming that steel production would be one industry that would continue to require coke for carbonizing and some other fossil fuel for the high temperatures and high energy demand that steelmaking requires.
It almost makes me hopeful, almost.
Hurricane Ian has been devastating but may be a minor foretaste of what’s to come. The Gulf’s water are going to keep gaining energy so the surface temperature will continue to rise but also the high temperatures will extend deeper so that hurricanes will not see the benefit of churning up the cooler waters. Most gulf hurricanes now see rapid intensification over a few hours as they approach land. I think there is a theoretical limit to hurricane strength imposed by thermodynamics and fluid dynamics but they have some margin to that yet and in not too many years we could see storms strong enough that, once they make landfall, they completely destroy everything for several miles inland.
Climate science is at a cross-roads. The claim is that heat in the Atlantic ocean is correlated with hurricane activity via the AMO index.
https://www.wunderground.com/article/storms/hurricane/news/2021-12-09-atlantic-hurricane-outlook
Yet there is much discussion as to whether the AMO is even a real cycle, that from recent papers and press releases from Prof. Michael Mann who claims to have coined the acronym some years ago.
So the cross-roads is that no one knows whether natural variability or AGW is contributing to any extremes being reported, including this recent hurricane.
The model I’m pursuing is based on solving the fluid dynamics of the ocean layer. It works very well in reproducing the intricate details of the AMO time series. Published this like 4 years ago but no one seems to be interested because (surprise) they’re earth scientists!
https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/2855758/193040101-d14b16fc-1f91-412d-a9f3-8b00202e57e5.png
One of these days a machine learning experiment will also discover this pattern and perhaps then it will get some attention.
There were much more stringent building codes put into place after Hurricane Andrew. Notice how much of the construction dating from the 1990’s and beyond hasn’t been getting destroyed in these major storms supposedly enhanced by “climate change” forces. Another thing is, these are structures sitting right along the coast, or very near. If these aren’t getting destroyed, I doubt similar structures several miles inland are going to get destroyed like you claim, because hurricanes are never as strong several miles inland as they are right along coastal areas.
“supposedly enhanced by “climate change” forces”
The poster clearly has access to information not available to scientists.
85% of the world’s population will live in the grip of stringent austerity measures by next year
https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/85-worlds-population-will-live-grip-stringent-austerity-measures-next-year
…. wait for it.
Excellent discussion on the present and future of oil production and investing in the space by Shubham Garg. Many reasons why a dramatic oil production decline is coming from a lack of resources, rising costs and huge decline rates and even apathy of the needed workers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3p4JIBAH5nk&t=2743s
Izzy, I have reposted this over on the petroleum thread. I watched just over half of this video a month or so ago. A big mistake was that I did not watch the whole thing. Beginning at about minute 47 of this video we get the real true story of what is happening in the world of declining oil production.
It is amazing to watch this just for the experience of watching someone with a shit-ton of knowledge reel off extemporaneously what he knows, without a single “um,” or “ah,” or “you know.” It’s phenomenal.
Stunning room-temperature-superconductor claim is retracted
From BBC’s World News.
HUGE GAS FLARING EMISSIONS NEVER REPORTED
“Using World Bank flare-tracking satellite data, we were able to identify the emissions from each of these sites. We estimate that in 2021, almost 20 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent went unreported from these flares. That is equal to the greenhouse gas emissions 4.4 million cars would produce in a year…”
And, “If all the natural gas flared globally were captured and used it could replace more than nine-tenths of Europe’s gas imports from Russia, based on figures from the International Energy Agency.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-62917498
Up above our resident extreme right and fascist conspiracy lover posted a character assassination note on Anne Applebaum. Same people who think Obama was a Moslem plot or that George Soros philantropy aimed at furthering democracy in the former Soviet Union is evil, seem to think they get some advantage by mis-characterization Anne Applebaum.
I think the fascist and authoritarian conspirator crowd is threatened by democracy and multiculturalism, and these people who speak up for it.
Judge for yourself-
https://freshairarchive.org/guests/anne-applebaum
All three interviews are very good.
“Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes & even seas that aren’t too choppy” ~ Elon Musk via Twitter sept 29 2022
Are we saved yet?
“Are we saved yet?”
Yes, everyone’s worried about fucking maintaining a drivearound culture.
Hi Mike,
You’re right about the “drive around” culture in the ultimate sense.
We wouldn’t need personal cars to survive in a rationally organized world.
But in the irrational world we live in, they’re essential to our economic survival in the short term.
And if we don’t survive the short term………. well, that makes the long term an academic question.
It will be the rich that drive around in their fancy coal-gas-battery vehicles. The rest of us will have to walk or go fuck ourselves.
“coal-gas-battery vehicles”
I’m pretty sure this comes from page 7 of the climate-denier phrase book, three pages after “abiotic oil” but before “sunspots”
No. It’s widely recognized that batteries are simply proxies for the systems that charge them.
And by the way–go fuck yourself.
‘The rest’ will soon be kicking in teeth and absconding with the movables.
You guys are touching on huge issue.
The energy ‘have and have nots’ disparity will likely be much more severe on the way down than it was on the way up.
This applies within a country as well as between countries.
And it has been extremely uneven on the way up.
This is hugely on my mind now. The asymmetry, I suspect, is going to be appalling.
I imagine rich westerners parading around in their plug-ins recharged by Superior Virtue, whilst the rest of the world rots away.
During the Bronze Age Collapse, for example, Egypt and Assyria persisted, while whole cities & civilizations vanished.
Americans will complain about the stench of dead bodies wafting over the oceans.
Ayo wut u mean when u say “drivearound culture”?
https://giphy.com/clips/CloieWyattTaylor-i-dont-know-even-cloie-wyatt-taylor-nB04BoFCrCYKcxr8Pc
It will be cool to drive that thing across a river.
Yeah, and fun, too, to have a robotaxi and a roadster that hovers etc etc
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-cybertruck-truck-serve-briefly-as-boat-2022-9
Gen Z “I’m going to Mars” dweebs are in for a surprise.
Something positive, to my mind at least.
WEBB REVEALS A GALAXY SPARKLING WITH THE UNIVERSE’S OLDEST STAR CLUSTERS
“Using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), researchers from the CAnadian NIRISS Unbiased Cluster Survey (CANUCS) team have identified the most distant globular clusters ever discovered. These dense groups of millions of stars may be relics that contain the first and oldest stars in the universe.”
https://phys.org/news/2022-09-webb-reveals-galaxy-universe-oldest.html
https://www.axios.com/2022/09/29/nato-nord-stream-sabotage
There seems to be an emerging consensus that Putin is responsible.
Dictators backed into a corner occasionally pull stunts, hurting themselves almost as much or even more than their enemies.
NATO knows who did it. That is why they are spending money to protect the infrastructure.
Putin is GOING FOR IT.
The way Putin’s going he’ll be hanging from a tank barrel.
Put a pin in it.
The reason he conducts meetings one on one at 60 paces is not due to covid paranoia, it’s an anti assassination control measure.
He’s right handed (possibly ambidextrous and/or left eye dominant), carry’s a pistol, and in the past when in winter dress and meeting the troops he did often not wear a glove on his right hand. When this was noted by watchers he stopped wearing gloves all together under such circumstances. In poker they call it a ‘tell’.
Putin’s lost the plot.
Putin is using “food tasters” and “body doubles”.
He resides in a nuclear bunker under some mountain.
He is in a dangerous mindset
I don’t want to jump on conclusions as of who did it. But what this situation implies, is that attacks on critical energy infrastructure is an act very close to war. It is under the soft war or hybrid war umbrella. Imagine missile strikes to take out energy installations… it could be as damaging as a tactical nuke strike or more. The world we live in is fragile, but robost enough that the most important things affecting standard of living move slowly in long term trends overall. Without an international order (which is an extended form of law and order) we will move much more rapidly towards a collapse of civilisations. If you could have asked people a few thousand of years ago if law and order was important; the brightest would have said it is of outmost importance.
Interesting bit of news regarding Queensland in Australia, with an ambitious renewable energy (or was it electricity?) target plan of 80% by 2035.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-28/qld-clean-energy-pumped-hydro-scheme-explained/101482948
A plan that involves an extensive use of pumped hydro in the 5gw+ range and thousands of high voltage grid km. The plan looks robust in my eyes. It is so much easier to electrify the economy from a position of strength – Australia is one of those places that can implement the renewable 80% grid with fossil fuel back up much more easily than other countries. Pumped hydro is looked at as more reliable than mass battery storage for electricity. If you can build it, it is a great long term choice as the energy loss of a up/down trip between lower and upper reservoir is an acceptable 30%.
Yep. And thats the kind of effort it takes.
Elon Musk’s Texts Shatter the Myth of the Tech Genius
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/09/elon-musk-texts-twitter-trial-jack-dorsey/671619/
The powerful men in Musks contacts appear to be unimpressive, unimaginative, and sycophantic; just overconfident dudes winging it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11270543/Putin-takes-swipe-Giorgia-Meloni-cutting-gas-Italy-days-backed-Ukraine.html
Gazprom cuts off gas to Italy.
But only for a few days? From the article: Italy reported that Russia’s Gazprom has suspended its gas supply until Monday
An article about power grids in Australia being dismantled.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-02/thousands-of-renewable-standalone-power-systems-to-be-rolled-out/101479136
I think this will happen is a lot of places as renewables continue to ruin the profitability of power plants After all, why spend money on a grid if you are losing money generating electricity?
Not good. And this is just the U.S.
GAS FLARES VASTLY UNDERPERFORM, CAUSING GREATER CLIMATE IMPACT
Flaring—burning off unwanted natural gas from oil and gas wells—releases five times more of the potent greenhouse gas methane into the atmosphere over the United States than previously assumed.
https://phys.org/news/2022-09-gas-flares-vastly-underperform-greater.html
For the global perspective:
INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC METHANE SET ANOTHER RECORD DURING 2021. CARBON DIOXIDE LEVELS ALSO RECORD A BIG JUMP.
NOAA’s preliminary analysis showed the annual increase in atmospheric methane during 2021 was 17 parts per billion (ppb), the largest annual increase recorded since systematic measurements began in 1983. The increase during 2020 was 15.3 ppb. Atmospheric methane levels averaged 1,895.7 ppb during 2021, or around 162% greater than pre-industrial levels. From NOAA’s observations, scientists estimate global methane emissions in 2021 are 15% higher than the 1984-2006 period.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/increase-in-atmospheric-methane-set-another-record-during-2021
A new new open thread Non-Petroleum has been [osted.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-october-2-2022/
A new thread updating US July Production growth has been posted.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/us-june-oil-production-shows-little-growth/