Peak Oil Barrel

87 responses to “Record US September Oil Production”

1. Ovi

   12/03/2025

   Trump Vowed Fewer Regulations and Lots More Oil. He’s delivered on One

   This is a New York Time’s article that appeared in our local paper which I could not access. Used AI to cobble it together.

   “As a candidate, Mr. Trump made a bold pitch to oil executives and lobbyists at a chopped-steak dinner at his Mar-a-Lago estate: Donate US$1-billion to his White House bid, and they would save more than that in taxes and legal expenses if he returned to the White House.

   In fact, Mr. Trump’s tax and policy law is projected to deliver at least US$18-billion in government subsidies and tax breaks for oil, gas and coal over the next decade.

   The biggest U.S. fossil fuel companies, including some of Mr. Trump’s top donors, are already reporting hundreds of millions of dollars apiece in tax savings, according to a review of investor calls and federal financial disclosures.

   And yet, energy experts said the past year had hardly been rosy for the industry.

   Companies may be saving billions because of tax breaks

   1. Nick G

      12/03/2025

      Bribes of elected officials (aka “campaign contributions”) have an extremely high ROI.

      It’s also worth pointing out that “Trump Vowed Fewer Regulations” is a FF advocate’s talking point: subsidies and tax breaks are not deregulation. Deregulation suggests efficiencies: faster permitting or simplified reporting, but these are just unnecessary handouts.

2. Ovi

   12/03/2025

   How OBBBA tax changes affect energy companies

   Below is an article that breaks down what key OBBBA provisions mean for energy businesses and how sector leaders can help their organizations turn these policy developments into competitive advantages.

   https://rsmus.com/insights/services/business-tax/obbba-energy-sector.html

   1. Hickory

      12/04/2025

      The tax subsidy program for oil/gas production is consistent with the long-term US policy-
      Use it up Fast.

3. Mike Shellman

   12/04/2025

   Most of these new tax ‘reduction’ incentives via the BBNB, way different from “subsidies,” which imply that the oil and gas sector is sent taxpayers money to drill wells, are old, and a lie, which Nick is very keen on and forever ready to lie about. Why anybody listens to him is sort of humorous.

   By the way is this a forum on determining “peak oil” or just just when the U.S can eliminate all oil whatsoever? Its very confusing.

   My industry is able to reduce tax liability, some of the highest tax liability in the entire U.S. corporate tax scheme, but only if we are making money, or profit, by drilling more wells. The obvious benefit to all of that to the American society are obvious, present company excluded.

   There are only three aspects of this bill that are new, for instance the ability to expense all leasehold bonuses paid to, for instance, BLM bonuses as high as $120K an acre in the Delaware Basin. Those bonuses benefit the American taxpayer, directly, by the way. Lease bonuses do not translate into automatic benefits to oil companies. The acreage bought from the FEDs then has to be proven productive. That should be obvious, except to anti-oil Nick. If oil is found on those BLM leases it would otherwise be logical, to any body but Nick, that more oil would lower gasoline prices, for instance, and benefit America society.

   Sadly, for anti-oilbarrel.com, anybody that had any knowledge, explanation or insight into the real world has been run off. That is what happens when there is an agenda and a need to control the content of the forum.

   If you only live from one stupid EIA press release to another and have no desire to dig deeper, you can’t see what is happening, what will happen in the near future. Tax incentives in a new, 4 month old bill, have NOTHING to do with the current state of affairs.

   You folks need to do more work. From the bottom up. Don’t be lazy about it all or otherwise expect nobody to engage, which appears to be the case.

   All this EIA shit, month to month, is ridiculous. It is the Energy Inaccuracy Agency for a reason. It has a political agenda, straight from headquarters.

   1. Nick G

      12/05/2025

      My understanding is that accrual accounting is the standard for large corporations, especially publicly traded ones. It’s my understanding that accrual accounting requires lengthy depreciation of investments, using a depreciation schedule that roughly corresponds to the productive life of those investments.

      It’s also my understanding that special exceptions to this rule, such as instant expensing, are “tax breaks”. These tax breaks are “tax expenditures”, which either reduce tax payments or create refunds.

      Is it fair to say that these are generally accepted principles of accounting?

   2. Iver

      12/05/2025

      Dennis and Ron have blocked or belittled so many people who disagree with them that there is hardly anyone who bothers commenting now.

   3. DC

      12/05/2025

      Hi Mr. Shellman,

      Ovi provides extensive information from the RRC of Texas and the OCD of New Mexico in his analysis of the Permian Basin for comparison to EIA data and to provide a check on that data and to look at past forecasts to see how accurate they have been. He also uses data and news from a number of different sources in his reports.

      I have also tended to focus on the Permian Basin using the Novi data and building a well by well model to anticipate future output from the Permian, this is independent of EIA forecasts and uses data and analysis from EIA/RRC/OCD and Novilabs as a check. A recent scenario has a low case base on Jorge Garzon’s analysis of pressure depletion in Midland and Delaware with oil prices of $60/b and $2.50/MCF in 2025$ or less at the wellhead in the Permian, the medium case assumes prices rise to the 10 year average in 2025$ and the high case assumes high prices of $100/b for oil and $5/MCF for natural gas or higher in 2025$ in the Permian Basin after 2030. I think somewhere between the low and medium cases is most likely, but I will be wrong no doubt. Chart at link below seems to have something to do with peak oil in my view.

      I present the EIA AEO reference scenario to show how different it is from my analysis (it is even higher than my “high case” which is my guess with about a 5% probability of being exceeded.) Like wise my low case has by my guess about a 5% probability of URR being lower than that guess. I think your analysis would be lower for the low case maybe a URR of 35 Gb for Permian tight oil? Proved reserves plus cumulative at the end of 2023 was roughly 28 Gb for Permian tight. At end of 2023 2P Permian tight oil reserves plus cumulative tight oil output was about 35 Gb (assumes 2P reserves=1.5 times proves reserves).

      EIA data is pretty good, forecasts by anyone tend to be inaccurate, just the nature of forecasts.

      permian scen 251205

   4. Ovi

      12/05/2025

      Mike

      In the OBBBA document I attached in the comments section, there is this statement regarding Bonus Depreciation.

      “For oil and gas companies, this means they can immediately deduct the cost of qualifying assets, such as rigs, well equipment, pipelines, and processing facilities— freeing up cash that can be reinvested in growth. Whether upstream, midstream, or downstream, the ability to expense these assets in the year placed in service improves returns and supports long-term investment strategies.”

      I have looked at some of your Well Cost/Economic analysis at your site in the past. How does this rapid depreciation of qualifying assets change the economics?

   5. Nick G

      12/05/2025

      Ovi,

      My understanding is that “Intangible” expenses (like labor and fuel) were previously fully deductible in the year incurred (mostly the first year), and included very roughly 75% of the cost of drilling a well. If I understand this correctly, now tangible expenses (the other 25%) are fully deductible.

      So 100% of the expense of drilling a well is now fully deductible in the first year?

   6. Mike Shellman

      12/05/2025

      Ovi, it changes nothing, essentially, or very little. Almost all lease bonuses subject to this new tax law are relative to Federal onshore BLM or offshore block bids. Privately, all shale oil basins are leased and only small tracts of Federal lands (New Mexico) come available and those lease bonuses benefit American’s directly. Nick wants additional taxes paid on that, which is stupid…like working your entire life to provide for your family, then having to give it away to pay taxes, again, when you die.

      By the way the percentage of IDC is more like 65-35. Operators then drill wells on these BLM tracts and the royalty benefits Americans as well.

      The reduction in BLM RI burdens from 3/16ths back to 1/8th are a much bigger deal and THAT may be causing some additional activity in Eddy and Lea, where almost everything is BLM/Federal land.

      If the far liberal left is 100% sure that we do not need hydrocarbons in the U.S. to provide transportation fuel, then end fossil fuels tomorrow. Good luck.

      That of course is not the case, nor will it be for several decades and the liberal, anti-oil left, like Nick, and Dennis, is just mouthing off without regard for the economic well being of the nation.

      Otherwise, we’re at the end of the fossil fuel era, until the far liberal left gets its shit together about generating electricity for EVs, it ought to be promoting hydrocarbon incentives big time.

      You want to know to. Ovi…why. Me too. Numbers for the sake of numbers are nothing. I understand the tight oil sector is trapped like goats with regard to dividend and interest expenses on long term debt, still in excess of $250B. I’ve been in the oil business. Its got no choice but to keep drilling unprofitable wells for cash flow.

      The Permian sector is still drilling wells below $60 oil, <$1 gas because it has no choice. It likes 3 mile laterals in the Delaware Basin because they're IP360s are greater and providing immediate cash flow. Bone Springs in the Delaware and Eddy Counties is the place you wish to be, particularly with an increase in 0.0625 of all revenue relative to the new tax law. Its no more complicated than that. There is no new benches, no new technology, no bull shit proppant fixes, or soap fixes, those are all lies. No drama, just common sense.

      The sector in the Permian is burning through its last well inventory to stay alive. You of anybody should know that.

      This utterly stupid, never ending political dung heap on AOB is absurd. The ability to reduce taxable income, again for the U.S. oil industry is the highest in the world, promotes the drilling of additional wells and is keeping America in transportation fuel. Wackos like Nick think that is unfair. I say shit like what now appears to be $8B of welfare fraud in Minnesota is a lot more unfair. How come the Nicks on AOB never speak to stuff like that? Its good to call POTUS names, want him dead, impeached and/or in jail, broke…y'all say shit like that all the time. What does that have to do with oil and gas?

      Nothing.

   7. Nick G

      12/06/2025

      Hmmm. So the argument is that the oil industry needs tax breaks to produce enough oil.

      And yet the US is a net exporter of oil & oil products. Wasn’t the argument that the US should conserve its oil resources?

   8. DC

      12/06/2025

      Hi Mike,

      As far as I can tell it is about $1B in fraud over a 4 year period (2019-2022) in Minnesota, not sure where you get $8 billion.

      For the Federal Government as a whole from 233 to 521 billion of fraud was estimated by the GAO over the 2018 to 2022 period in the US (this is the 90% confidence interval). The $1 billion identified in Minnesota constitutes about 0.2% of the US estimated total. The percentage of US government obligations is about 3 to 7% represent fraud.

      https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-105833

      I have not made any comment about the tax changes in OBBB that affect the oil industry. I guess you think they are beneficial, over 2025-2029 the CBO estimates US government deficit will increase by 1.9 trillion due to $2 trillion less tax revenue.

      https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61486

      The fraud case in Minnesota is a story that Trump uses to spin away from the potential war crimes that might have been committed in September. A bigger problem is the rule of law and whether the Trump administration thinks it is subject to the Constitution.

      This may seem abstract, but it affects the oil and gas industry which is not likely to be successful without viable public institutions, at least in my view.

      On the dung heap of political stuff, I guess you mean the story I linked to of a person from Texas going to college in Massachusetts who was deported to Honduras by the Trump administration. I agree nothing to do with oil or gas and perhaps controversial. Some believe these actions are justified in the case of someone brought to the US illegally at 8 years old with no criminal record of any kind. Based on previous comments you have made I would not think you would agree. In any case, are these the kind of people that need to be removed from the US?

      I do not think many were voting for this type of action and I would not think this is what many Trump voters expected.

      Though I wonder about why it would be called dung heap, perhaps you support this type of action?

      It is interesting looking at comments to these stories where many seem to support such action.

      Seems pretty heartless to me, so much for the deportation of criminals. Do we feel much safer as a result? Personally the actions of the Trump administration should make one wonder if any of us is safe as the Trump administration seems to make up its own law. Not the way it is supposed to work.

      An update to the story at link below and note the Trump administration ignoring Federal Court Orders, this is not how the US government is supposed to work, it is banana republic type behavior.

      https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/01/us/babson-college-student-deported-thanksgiving-hnk

   9. DC

      12/06/2025

      Morning Joe on Babson student case

      https://www.ms.now/news/college-student-deported-trump-immigration-thanksgiving

      CBO OBBB summary at link below

      obbb

   10. Ovi

       12/06/2025

       Mike

       Thanks for clarifying where some of these tax breaks apply. It will be interesting to see if Eddy production continues to rise due to the enhanced tax breaks there.

   11. Alimbiquated

       12/10/2025

       If the far liberal left is 100% sure that we do not need hydrocarbons in the U.S. to provide transportation fuel, then end fossil fuels tomorrow. Good luck.

       Mike
       You think America needs hydrocarbons but at the same time think the industry needs subsidies. Apparently the need isn’t great enough to pay the cost of production.

       The oil industry is like any other industry. It exists because it makes money. If it stops making money it will die, whether it is needed or not.

       If an industry still hasn’t figured out how to make money after over a century of trying, then its political pull may be its only real value.

   12. Mike Shellman

       12/10/2025

       Mr. Alimbiquated, I think if you live in the UK, or anywhere in Western Europe, you should not be criticizing my country, nor its politicians, nor its policies, you should be thanking it, profusely, every day, since 1916 and other wise keep your meat pie intake closed.

       As to the difference in being able to reduce taxable income (some of the highest in American industry) by reinvesting capital to replace finite hydrocarbon resources and… subsidies, like farm subsidies in the U.S. (getting a check), or being a lazy pig in the U.K. and living on the dole, you are either really stupid for saying that or really, really stupid, period. You folks would be very cold over there if it were not for Permian Basin tight oil and LNG imports. You’d be really cold and overrun by Russians right now if it were not for the U.S.

       Dennis, I read your response to me just now. Jesus. I appreciate you occassionally saying something good about my blog, in between the criticisms, its not necessary anymore. I don’t get anything here (except from Ovi) except political hate. I am so done. Please, as a favor to me, to you, and your amazingly patriotic community, block me.

       And seek serious help with this Trump sickness you all have.

       Merry Christmas, y’all!

   13. Nick G

       12/10/2025

       Patriotism. It’s a good thing. It’s great to love your country. I love the ideals of the US, which make it special.

       “ You’d be really cold and overrun by Russians right now if it were not for the U.S.”

       Yes, I’m glad to be in the US. What makes it special? It’s not the ability to make money – there are a lot of very wealthy people in Russia -we call them oligarchs, and we don’t respect them. Instead, it’s democracy, and power residing in the people not the politicians, and a unique ability to criticize our leaders and ask them to do what we want, not what is in their personal interest.

       So, criticizing the current president is in the very best tradition of US ideals. Sadly, the current president doesn’t believe that. He feels that reporters and anyone else who questions him ought to be punished.

       The current president really is more comfortable with Russian ways of doing things than he is with our US traditions. He would not have come to the defense of Europe in 1916 or 1940 – he believes in America First, which both in the 1930’s and now means not helping Europe.

       It’s very, very possible to love the US and not like the current president. In fact, it’s essential.

       There’s nothing more unamerican than trying to overthrow an election – I can’t understand how anybody can ignore that!

4. Coffeeguyzz

   12/05/2025

   Informative report just released the other day by 3 professors who study hydrocarbon matters in California.
   With all the ‘drama’ surrounding the recent/imminent closures of 2 refineries (~20% of Cali’s capacity), a knock-on effect has been highlighted … namely the possible shutdown of a pipeline supplying some crude to the remaining (essentially 2) refineries in the Bay area.
   Pipeline owner – Plains All American – claims to be losing $2 million/month with larger losses projected when Valero’s Benicia refinery shuts down in a few months.
   Absent the remaining refineries paying (much?) higher shipping tarrifs, the San Pablo Bay pipeline may halt deliveries.
   This would mean increased imports of the needed oil/refined products.

   Not only would higher ultimate higher prices ensue, the maritime import capacity may prove to be inadequate to satisfy downstream demand.
   A particularly sensitive issue is the shortage of avgas for the numerous military aviation facilities in the state.

   Interesting times.

   1. DC

      12/05/2025

      Thanks.

      Link to paper for those interested below

      https://californiaglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Blueprint-Soluition-Defin-Final.pdf

   2. Hickory

      12/05/2025

      Here an article providing more information on this subject-
      https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Californias-Oil-Rush-Slips-Into-Its-Final-Act.html

5. Coffeeguyzz

   12/05/2025

   … aaanndd, in the ever-evolving, always exciting world of hydrocarbons, comes this tid bit …
   Outfit called Glenfarne is expected to make FID in a coupla weeks on the $40 Billion (plus), 800 mile long natgas pipeline from Prudhoe Bay to a new LNG plant to be built on Cook Inlet ($15 Billion cost for that baby).
   In addition, a ~$15 Billion treatment plant will need to be built on the North Slope to get the gas pipeline ready.

   And I thought the data center/AI guys were ‘out there’ with the hundreds of billions of dollahs being thrown around lIke it’s no big deal …

   1. DC

      12/05/2025

      Coffeeguyzz,

      Seems most of the long term contracts are with Asia, so this does very little for natural gas prices in the US, but it is beneficial for those in Alaska who may benefit from the royalties and severance taxes.

6. DC

   12/05/2025

   https://www.wcvb.com/article/babson-college-student-deported-after-trying-to-fly-home-for-thanksgiving-speaks/69625870

   This is a really bad look for the US.

   1. Nick G

      12/05/2025

      The fascinating question is whether Trump realizes how bad it looks. Is he so completely insulated from reality by sycophants that he has no idea how bad he and his policies look to the majority of people in the US and the great majority of the rest of the world?

      https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2025/06/11/us-image-declines-in-many-nations-amid-low-confidence-in-trump/

      https://news.gallup.com/poll/699221/trump-approval-rating-drops-new-second-term-low.aspx

      “ President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has fallen five percentage points to 36%, the lowest of his second term, while disapproval has risen to 60%.”

7. Dclonghorn

   12/05/2025

   Nick G,
   Publicly registered companies are required to report results to their shareholders using (GAAP) generally accepted accounting principles. They are required to report on their tax liability as required by the tax code. Most folks keep records so they can report on both.
   Oil and gas companies need huge amounts of capital, and have raised bunches from wealthy people by combining the certainty of writeoffs with the promise of potential returns.

   1. Nick G

      12/05/2025

      Dclonghorn,

      I agree with all that, except…are you suggesting that the O&G industry isn’t viable without tax breaks?

8. DC

   12/05/2025

   Article from a few weeks ago on Permian Basin, well written.

   https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shale-rigs-idle-layoffs-rise-60-oil-tests-resilience-permian-2025-11-21/

9. Ovi

   12/05/2025

   Rig Report for the Week Ending December 5

   The rig count drop that started in early April 2025 when 450 rigs were operating had a small rebound this week. Drilling continues at unabated rates with WTI at $60/b.

   – US Hz oil rigs rose by 2 to 365, down 85 since April 2025 when it was 450. It is also up 3 from the low of 362 in the week ending August 1. The rig count is down 19% since April.
   – New Mexico Permian added 1 to 97. Lea added 3 to 62 while Eddy dropped 2 to 35.
   – Texas added 1 to 168. Texas Permian was unchanged at 133. Midland and Martin were unchanged at 24 each.
   – Eagle Ford was unchanged at 26.
   – NG Hz rigs dropped by 1 to 111.

   A Rig

10. Ovi

    12/05/2025

    Frac Spread Report for the Week Ending December 5

    The frac spread count was unchanged at 173. From one year ago, it is down 47 and down by 42 spreads since March 28.

    A Frac

11. Sheng Wu

    12/05/2025

    turned out that the Low GOR Black Shale oil from VM, Uinta and China lacustrine shale oil could have good productivity because they have very low asphaltene.

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/copy-driving-forces-highly-productive-low-gas-oil-ratio-sheng-wu-fhutc
    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/differences-between-low-gor-api-black-shale-oillgabso-sheng-wu-bpfjc

    1. Coffeeguyzz

       12/06/2025

       Sheng Wu,
       I just spent several – fruitless – minutes with ol’ Chatbot trying to locate the data/charts that the North Dakota’s EERC posted relating to Liberty’s Stomping Horse EOR project.
       This 20 page EERC report came out in 2020, IIRC.
       It has since been pulled off the net and is no longer publicly accessible.

       Hmmmm …

       Reason that I am posting this is because that report seems to 100% validate your observation (if my understanding is correct) that it is the asphaltenes that are the primary cause of the ‘dreaded decline’ in shale wells.
       Specifically, the larger molecules tend to block the pore throats and only the smaller and smaller molecules get through.
       Hence, the ever rising API numbers along with lower overall output.
       This was clearly implied when the molecular make up from the recovered streams from Stomping Horse were heavily disproportionate containing C10 through C18 (going from memory).

       If, as you say, the Dead Cow has fewer asphaltenes to begin with, this would buttress the observation that it is these larger molecules – not primarily pressure depletion – that prematurely curtails oil production.

       The EERC folks have consistently shown that wet gas – ethane and especially propane – and NOT methane produces by far the most effective results in EOR.
       This, clearly, would be due to its miscibility, aka ‘dissolving’ the blocking heavies.

       Sumptin’ like dat.

    2. DC

       12/06/2025

       Sheng Wu,

       As Mr Shellman points out the high IP of most tight oil plays is a feature that improves short term profitability. Cash flow earlier is more valuable than cash flow later when considering the economics of the project.

    3. Sheng Wu

       12/06/2025

       Coffeeguyzz and DC,

       I have been searching for a production model that explains high-yield LGBSO.
       First, a technology history review on tight and shale oil and gas.

       Note that Bakken is really not shale oil, i.e. producing from Mid-Bakken/Three Fork tight siltstone and feldspars with zero TOC and shale, but EF is really in the shale like Permian too. In Bakken, the mainstream already formulated the model that oil can not be produced from Shale with high TOC, because the TOC will adsorb the oil while zero TOC tight rocks could.
       Barnett shale gas revolution happened almost in parallel to Bakken tight oil development, and yet they took independent routes in terms of fracking, Bakken still use conventional fracking and Barnett used slick water fracking. They both later used lateral drilling though.
       First Bakken wells back in 80/90s indeed drilled in upper Bakken shale sweetspots and produced some oil, but not scalable, and then they found that they could apply fracking in the zero TOC tight rock mid-Bakken and scaled into today’s Bakken.
       Barnnett field was first only drilling in the upper tight sand, and then George Mitchel persisted in testing the shale, and finally Nick Steinsberg succeeded using water fracking in shale — lowered cost and significantly improved production.

       The current mainstream 2012 BP CANDER model for shale oil, posited that “viscosity is the determining factor,” suggesting that HGLTO with higher GOR & API is the requirement for shale oil to produce from ultra-tight shale with adsorptive TOCs. This is about 4 years after 2008 discovery well in Eagle Ford shale, and this time they are really drilling in the shale, sometimes with TOC over 7%. Cander 2012 model was to resolve the Bakken “oil can not be produced from shale” dilemma, arguing that in order to produce from the much tighter shale and adsorptive TOC, the fluid has to have low viscosity, i.e. High GOR LTO (HGLTO), and even HGLTO can not compete with shale gas. This effectively put a limit to true black shale oil. Leaving many shale bashers claiming shale oil is not oil, but NGL or gassy oil at the best, and US can not use and has to export.

       Then, in 2018 there was a pilot shale lateral drilling in Bohai Bay DaGang, and the oil is API ~25deg, and GOR~200scf/bbl, and I was lucky to report it in URTEC2021, almost parrall, the Jimusaer shale patch reported good results with API~20~23deg and GOR~50scf/bbl. At first, I thought they are just conventional oil, but later on in 2023 more evidence came from Vaca Muerta where the Jimusaer similar well BPE2301 also reported 70KBO in 2 months, and now over 700KBO. Then, there are more reports of such LGBSO from VM, Uinta, Subei/Shengli China saline lacustrines. Data in past ~5 years confirmed that they could actually outproduce Permian in US.

    4. Sheng Wu

       12/06/2025

       DC,

       Mike surprisingly gave some credit to shale drillers!
       I agree with him that the high IP is the feature of shale/tight oil and gas, that is what made shale gas a frenzy bubble in the beginning. The pre-shale revolution shale gas production actually has a long slow decline but IP is too slow to begin with so it is not economical. When the high IP of Barnett shale appeared in 2005, operators and investors used the same slow decline curve and saw shale as a cash printer.
       But, we see that improved completions had some positive improvements on shale gas, but not on shale oil. The IP is higher, but the decline is much faster in shale oil, although shale gas decline is somewhat slower. In Bakken, there is already an obvious invariable EUR normalized lateral?
       https://novilabs.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2.-Well-productivity-2.png
       Similar EUR invariables happened in Permian.
       So, I am also trying to find a model to explain this Shale/Tight OIL EUR invariable.

    5. Sheng Wu

       12/06/2025

       Coffeeguyzz,

       The ~1% asphaltene (ASP) level unique properties of LGBSO is a surprise finding came to me only yesterday, and it is quite counter intuitive for black oil to have such low ASP levels, usually should be over 5% to 20%, averaging >10%.
       It is not surprise to see ASP~1% for US marine sourced shale/tight oils, such Midland conventional light sweet oil also have below 5%, as low as 1% ASP oils. But it is a conventional wisdom that oil with API<35deg will see ASP level going up fast, and that is why there is a conventional conjecture that the lower API associated with low maturity and high level of ASP. So, high ASP level is associated with low maturity oil. But, the shale drilling results from Jimusaer with API20~23 deg oil has only 1% ASP is quite outlier. I will try to collect samples/data from VM, Uinta and other LGBSO basins in China.
       But, so far only Jimusaer shale field in China reported such low ASP levels, and I could not find ASP data from VM or other shale field.

    6. Mike Shellman

       12/06/2025

       Dennis, you are out of your brain pain, man. You need to take 2 aspirin. shoot some Patron shots and see if you can get your Trump anxiety fixed tomorrow in your local emergency care store. Seriously, I feel sorry for you. You can’t think straight. When you go to the doctor, take Nick with you.

       Sheng, you are a PhD in chemistry, and self described shale advocate. I would ask where you got all this oil experience, but I do not care. I’ve had working interest in shale oil wells. They suck. When and if the tight oil sector does something good, makes some money, I will root for them. Now, they are not helping American citizens, not even shareholders. It is, in fact, destroying America’s energy future.

       When YOU go to the doctor you need to take Coffee with you, though I think he will be sent straight to Hospice. Annoying, I don’t care what you do with him/her.

       Longer laterals, more perforated interval, bigger IP360s help nobody in American except American tight oil and tight gas importers. All those wells are doing is draining America, faster. That is the ultimate fallacy in your cheerleading.

       Whose side are y’all actually on?

       Ovi, all my ranting aside, a 1/6th change in RI burdens make a big difference in Delaware Basin well economics. But it does not entirely explain why rigs stay constant in Eddy and Lea County. The Bone Springs does. Honestly, you have to understand the business of oil when the asset you spend so much money on depletes 90% in three years. Its tough way to make a living. GOR aside, its all about remaining drillable locations in New Mexico and how negatively future wells will be adversely affected by pressure depletion.

       The Bone Springs is a different animal…it is almost conventional like with exceptional porosity and recovery rates of OIP that can exceed 30%. What that means is that Bone Springs wells drain bigger areas, are more subject to parent/child problems, and ultimately will crash harder. And when that happens, in Lea County particularly, the big Permian miracle will be over.

       Think the biggest producer, EOG, in Lea County does not know that? Why is it fleeing to Ohio, or Abu Dubai, or Trinidad? Its back in my country leasing some actual dog shit stuff. Its desperate. Tight oil companies can only do what they do, drill the snot out of tight oil for 8% RR.

       Dennis, stay hydrated and seek help with the Trump thing.

    7. DC

       12/07/2025

       Thanks Mike,

       On occasion you criticize the Trump administration as well, though for different reasons. If you don’t think the assault on the rule of law by the Trump administration is a problem, I guess you need to imagine what you would think if Biden or Obama had operated the way Trump has since Jan 20, 2025.

       I remember Mitch McConnell saying Trump should not be impeached because nobody is above the law. Unfortunately the Supreme Court moved the goal posts on that, so next time around Senators won’t be able to make that argument.

       I look forward to November 2026, hopefully there may be some accountability at that point and some oversight by Congress.

    8. DC

       12/07/2025

       Sheng Wu,

       Those are not normalized well profiles and note that they assume 40 year well life which is very optimistic, my expectation is about 25 years at most, more likely 20 years. Also note these are average well profiles for the core counties of the North Dakota Bakken/Three Forks.

       See post linked here or full explanation

       https://novilabs.com/blog/north-dakota-update-through-jan-2024/

       The best wells were in 2020 and second best wells in 2021 and third best in 2018, the 2018 wells about 400 kb at end of life at 20 years. The 2021 well about 4% higher EUR than 2018 well (416 kbo) and 2021 well about 7% higher EUR than 2018 well (428 kbo).

       Note that if we normalize for lateral length EUR might be lower for 2021 wells, though I do not have lateral length data.

       Chart linked below indicates well productivity declining in Bakken/Three Forks since 2020.

       https://public.tableau.com/shared/3RXZKDHMS?:toolbar=n&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y

    9. Anonymous

       12/07/2025

       I’m old enough to remember when the doomers were saying 10-15 year lifetimes. Now it is 20-25. Yawn.

    10. Sheng Wu

        12/07/2025

        DC,
        you are correct on the Bakken EUR Novi plot interpretation.
        I was confused, because there is a research done by Frank Male from BEG (now in Penn State), and his work used normalized length EUR, and conclusion is that the IP is higher, but EUR barely keeping up.
        Some of the EUR over 5 years could be hard to predict — the type curve keeps on changing, and price also factor in shut-in limit.
        So, it is close to say there is an invariable of EUR or recovery factor, although pressure drop and price etc. could all factor in.

    11. DC

        12/09/2025

        Sheng Wu,

        I disagree that the EUR is invariable, but it might be close. From 2017 to 2022 average Permian normalized EUR decreased at an average rate of about 1.24% per year in terms of EUR per 10 thousand feet of lateral length. Average EUR per 10k lateral feet from 2017 to 2022 about 453 kbo with a range of 420 kbo in 2022 to a high of 468 kbo in 2017. The ols linear trend is an EUR decrease of 5.6 kbo each year. The exponential OLS trend has an annual rate of decrease of 1.28% per year. As room for new wells in the core areas becomes scarce, I expect the EUR rate of decrease is likely to accelerate.

    12. DC

        12/09/2025

        Nony,

        The point was the chart that Sheng Wu linked to suggested a 40 year well life. For the average Permian 2020 well with an EUR at 22.5 years of 466 kbo (output at 5 bopd at that point) cash flow from all 3 streams (oil , NGL, and NG) becomes negative at 143 months (12 years, EUR=422 Gbo)from first flow at WTI of $60/b, NGL at 30% of oil price and natural gas at $1.50/MCF (typical of WAHA prices). An increase of the natural gas price to $4.50/MCF at current oil and NGL prices (assume natural gas egress is unlimited) would increase well life to 182 months (15 years, EUR=443 kbo.) Leaving natural gas price at the high $4.50/MCF level and raising oil price to $90/bo, with NGL at $27/b, cash flow becomes negative at 218 months (18 years, EUR=455 kbo). At an oil price of $160/bo, NGL at $48/b, and natural gas at $5/MCF, cash flow becomes negative at 269 months (22.4 years, EUR=466 kbo). Well output of C+C is 5 bo/d at 269 months from first flow, gas is 57 MCF/d and NGL about 4.3 b/d at 269 months.

        EUR will depend on the price assumptions for oil, NGL, and natural gas and OPEX, royalty rates, and severance tax rates.

        Note that I assumed 30 year well life when I started looking at tight oil in 2013, those with more knowledge pointed out that was a very optimistic assumption so I have adjusted to make the analysis more realistic.

12. Andre The Giant

    12/05/2025

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-hits-pipeline-sending-russian-oil-hungary-slovakia-source-says-2025-12-03/

    Special Operations forces blow up Russian oil pipeline.

    If they get to those Siberian pipelines????

13. Dclonghorn

    12/05/2025

    Nick,
    The oil business is known to soar with the eagles one day and scratch with the chickens the next. No matter what the economics were at any given time, the promoters were able to pass along significant tax breaks for decades, which helped deals get done, and wells to be drilled.
    Today it seems a very small number of huge private and public companies are doing almost all of the drilling. I don’t think they are doing it to harvest tax losses.

    1. Nick G

       12/06/2025

       So, you feel that oil & gas companies in general don’t need tax breaks? They’d be just fine with standard depreciation schedules, etc?

    2. Mike Shellman

       12/06/2025

       Of course they aren’t. Its a dumb, pointless allegation directed at an industry that people like Nick, and Dennis hate.

       You can’t take advantage of reducing taxable income unless you are making taxable income and I suggest the oil industry subsidy whiners do their SEC homework on that. The new BBTB law, or whatever you wish to call it was signed in July.

       Has the evil oil industry added a lot of rigs since July to take advantage of the new bill?

       Hardly.

    3. Nick G

       12/07/2025

       “Of course they aren’t”

       So, the oil industry does not respond to tax breaks by drilling more than they would have otherwise?

       Wow. Then what’s the point of giving the industry tax breaks? The traditional justification for tax breaks is that they incentivize behavior desired by the people giving the break. If it has no impact on the industry, why shouldn’t the government save the roughly $55B* that they cost??

       ———————————
       *$35B for existing tax breaks and about $20B for the latest in the BBB.

       https://thefactcoalition.org/report/oil-and-gas-tax-subsidies/

14. Jean-François Fleury

    12/06/2025

    Thank you Ovi for the job. You wrote : ”In early 2026 the Alaska Picca field is expected to come online. At its peak, Pikka could produce up to 80 Mb/d from 45 wells.” I suppose you mean ”80 kb/d” because 80 Mb/d is roughly the world oil production (rather at 84 or 85 Mb/d)?

    1. Sheng Wu

       12/06/2025

       US oil and gas industry has a weird Imperial O&G Units.
       They often use “M” for “K”, and “MM” as “Million”, while “B” still stands for “Billion”
       They even have barrel, BOE and which is even more confusing that medicine prescriptions in Latin.
       EU/UK also has some weird unit like BTU, eG T Joules, GWH, MMWH,….

    2. Nick G

       12/06/2025

       Sheng Wu,

       The M, amazingly enough, is a Roman numeral! M stands for 1,000, and MM stands for 1,000,000 (I guess the Romans never had to count to a billion).

       I agree – it’s very odd. They really ought to move to the metric system (k and M), but if they did that then who knows, people might want them to stop using “barrels”, something which hasn’t been used to hold oil for about 150 years.

       The O&G industry is pretty resistant to change…

    3. Ovi

       12/07/2025

       Jean

       Thanks for noting that. Yes 80 kb/d.

       Fixed

15. Andre The Giant

    12/07/2025

    Andre predicted 117 dollars a barrel at end of year.

    I’ve got ~20 days for World War III to start and I may still have a chance to win!!

    1. DC

       12/07/2025

       The average WTI spot price from Jan 1 to Dec 1 2025 has been $66.08/b, and on Dec 1 the price was $59.47/b. Looks like I will not be close to correct for my 2025 oil price guesses.

       Not a surprise, I am always wrong when I guess what will happen in the future.

    2. hole in head

       12/07/2025

       https://peakoilbarrel.com/us-november-production-rebounds-after-hurricane/#comment-713771
       HOLE IN HEAD
       02/04/2021 at 8:33 am
       Dennis . $ 25 (in 2019$) by 2025 .

       My calculation ;

       Oil to Gold ratio

       Year Price of gold per oz Price of oil per barrel Number of barrels available per oz
       2019 $ 1392 $ 64 21 . 75
       2025 $ 4000 $ 70 57 . 15

       Price of oil today
       21.75 x 64
       ———– = $ 24 . 36
       57 . 15

    3. DC

       12/08/2025

       Hole in Head,

       In your 2021 comment you said nothing about the price of gold, it was $25/b in 2019 $ by 2025. The average price for 2025 would need to fall to $31.70/b in 2025$ to be about $25/bo in 2019 $. Gold price is irrelevant.

       We don’t use physical goods as a measure of value in the modern economy. if we did there could be as many price schedules as there are goods as any good could be arbitrarily chosen as THE measure of value.

       What makes an ounce of gold special? Not much really.

16. hole in head

    12/07/2025

    Sorry , I don’t know why figures are not aligning with the headings , however you will get the gist . Dennis , this is real money not the DXY index which is nothing but Fiat vs a basket of other Fiat currencies . Iron Mike was the only one who said ” possible ” .

17. gerry maddoux

    12/07/2025

    Politics aside, please consider for a moment what kind of place the world would be without crude oil and natural gas. I would point out, once again, that the age of death prior to electricity, was 46. That wasn’t all due to the magic of electricity, but to other things that came in with the hydrocarbon world: pharmaceuticals, surgical garb, antiseptics, means of conveyance to a hospital when the old appendix ruptures and peritonitis is setting in. The flavor of this site should be, watch out, we’re getting closer to the point of peak oil. Rather, it has become, the sooner the better.

    In my chosen field there were the talkers and the doers. They were rarely the same person. Mike Shellman has the capacity to irk me at times but the guy is one of the few people in the world who was blessed by the ability to think out a project, then do it, and also to talk about it in its many forms. We would all–even us old ones–be wise to listen to him. I don’t have the tools to figure out the yield of all the shale basins—Niobrara, Bakken, Granite Wash, Anadarko, Permian, Eagle Ford, Barnett, Haynesville, Utica, Marcellus, Monterey, Powder River, Texas Bossier, Buda, Fayetteville—that will soon provide electricity to the many data centers being manufactured, or otherwise make the LNG trains run to payout. I just don’t know that. But when Shellman says the Bone Springs formation–as thick and oil dense as it is–serves as the canary in the coal mine, I know enough to listen.

    I’m pulling for America, because that’s my home. But I’m also concerned about Great Britain, Ireland, Scotland and Wales, because those were the homes of my ancestors. Additionally, I’m old enough to realize the futility of harboring animus against any man, so I’m not eager to see others suffer. There’s plenty of room out there to incorporate solar and wind into a complex energy mix. Even add in some nuclear. However, my fervent belief is that NG will always be at the backbone of the generation of electricity, spinning the turbine when nothing else under the sun works as advertised.

    Now we can add in some politics. When you track the oscillations of the price of a barrel of oil, you’ll easily recognize that oil producers and oilfield workers and even investors do better during a Democrat administration. However, the global subsidies to push renewables so fast almost wrecked the economies of several major countries. Given normal market forces, oil and NG can readily hold their own, and with no “tax breaks” the prices of these commodities would rise to a level where they found a reasonable market and also didn’t create a frenzy. Given a non-corrupt Texas Railroad Commission, there would have been an automatic “governor” on methane flaring and venting. In short, politics has screwed this up more than the ordinary man could possibly do it.

    I’m going to continue to read these spaces because now and again someone comes along who actually has either a niche view of a component of the oil and gas industry or a world view of the entire thing. Whoever Mr. Kaplan is, send him a Christmas gift, because he has an uncommon knowledge of the GOM and is willing to share it. That fellow who knows so much about refineries is a valuable poster. I like reading Sheng Wu, but not everything is “lacustrine,” nor does a low GOR always correlate with “Black Oil.” And yes it’s the asphaltenes that clog up frack fissures and pores but there are many hydrocarbons with aromatic rings and long chains that are culprits too–the mix is dependent upon the kitchen in which the oil was cooked to perfection. I learn from all of you.

    1. Mike Shellman

       12/07/2025

       Gerry, its frustrating to have devoted my entire life to a better understanding of ALL aspects of oil and gas, from rocks to tax laws and everything in between, so that I could feed my family and the families of my employees… to then be overrun by out of work internet experts who just 8-10 years ago did not know how to spell oil. I let that get the best of me sometimes and said something to you personally a while back that was stupid, that I regret. I know I irk you. I do everybody. Its just the son of a bitch I am.

       You always have valuable insights and people should listen to you.

       I detest politics, rail on all presidents over oil and gas policies, eleven of the bastards, by the way, but never called them criminals because they were stupid, nor wished them dead. Not even the worse. I find that pathetic beyond description. I try and stay in my knowledge lane and remain dedicated to trying to make people understand their hydrocarbon future better. I feel it my duty. Thank you for what you said, sir.

    2. Nick G

       12/08/2025

       Mike,

       I appreciate your personal thoughts. Like you, I feel a duty to help people understand their energy future.

       A thought: you shouldn’t make any assumptions about the people you debate with. I, for instance, have been railing on *12* presidential administrations (counting Trump twice), and thinking about and working professionally on resource and energy issues since the Carter administration (BTW, I liked Carter – a nuclear engineer!).

       I’m sorry I irked you with my comments about criminality. I take no satisfaction or pleasure in describing the current President that way – I greatly prefer to be able to respect our leaders. Sadly, this isn’t the first criminal president – Nixon resigned for a reason, and Reagan clearly broke the War Powers Act. But the current president is in a different level, a different world. Do you really disagree that Trump tried to overthrow the 2020 election? If so, Vice President Pence would really disagree with you – he reports that Trump personally asked him to engage in an illegal reversal of the election.

       This president applied a 50% tariff on Brazil purely because it prosecuted its past president for trying to overthrow an election in precisely the same way. Bolsonaro was convicted and jailed for 27 years, and this infuriated Trump – this is a confession, on its face, and an illustration of Trump’s willingness, even eagerness to encourage criminality and attempt to coerce obedience in destructive ways.

       Again, I take no pleasure in saying this about Trump, or in disagreeing with you about it. It’s simply the truth, despite the constant pretense by Fox News and Republican sycophants. It’s important mainly because Trump’s policies are equally arbitrary, capricious and incompetent. Trumps tendency toward illegal methods and coercion are hallmarks of an authoritarian approach which prevents broad consultation and consensus building which leads to realistic and effective policies. They appoint incompetent staff, who are afraid to speak truth to power (have you watched Trump’s cabinet meetings – the sycophancy is really embarrassing). They act alone and make bad decisions on badly inadequate information.

       Examples include the recent tariff policy which has been extraordinarily badly planned, arbitrary, capricious and counter-productive; and the lifting of CAFE rules which will leave US automakers in a extremely weak competitive position vs China.

       Authoritarian leaders typically harm their countries, and Trump is seriously harming the US (and the world – ask Europe).

    3. DC

       12/08/2025

       Thanks Dr. Maddoux excellent comment.

       I also have learned much from many who post here and I apologize that my tone offends many.

    4. DC

       12/08/2025

       Hi Mike,

       Thanks for your great comments here.

       For those who do not already follow Mike’s Blog at http://www.oilystuff.com he has a recent comment in the forum at link below. He has great charts from Novilabs and insight that is unmatched.

       https://www.oilystuff.com/group/economic-discussions-well-costs-debt-finance/discussion

    5. Mike Shellman

       12/08/2025

       If you address me in the future, Nick, you must refer to me as Mr. Shellman… until I give you the courtesy otherwise. That is the Southern way. I will extend you the same courtesy providing you come from underneath your rock, for the first time ever, and provide your full name.

       I have, after nearly 10 years of commenting on POB, developed all the opinions I need to about you, sir. You are a pompous ass who feels he has the intellectual and moral superiority over others and who has constantly tried to control the content of this forum to suit his political agenda.

       Who the fuck are you to lecture me about anything within a thousand miles of anything oil and gas?

       I do not believe you “regret” anything you say negatively about the current political cycle in our country…I think you are, forgive me, an evil son of a bitch. And, someone who would love to forever split my country right down the middle. I think of you as very un-American.

       Have a nice day.

    6. Nick G

       12/09/2025

       Yeah, I get it. You’re defending your career, your industry that supports your friends, family and community. You want respect, not criticism, and you can only take so much. That’s normal.

       So, we’re done for today.

    7. shallow sand

       12/10/2025

       I’m continually amazed at the USA’s oil and natural gas production despite low prices.

       With the exception of during the initial phases of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, oil and natural gas prices have been weak since late 2014.

       Yet the costs just keep on rising.

       Same deal with grain. My family is in the middle of a pretty long double whammy on commodities.

       I’m 56 and have owned stripper oil wells since 1997. After bottoming out in late 1998/early 1999, oil went on a tear for about 14 years, interrupted briefly by the GFC.

       This was after a bear market from 1986-1999, which was preceded by a bull market from 1973-85.

       Our dad first bought leases in the 1970’s, so he’s seen even more of the boom and bust personally than we have.

       I clearly remember the 1986 bust, I was in high school. But it doesn’t quite resonate until it’s your bank account being hit.

       We shall see if there is another price boom or not, God willing. Not looking favorable right now.

    8. Sheng Wu

       12/11/2025

       Gerry,

       Thanks for the encouragements and all the nice inputs from all in this forum!

       Here are my 2 cents about low oil price and new peaks,
       Shale could survive low price and still make new peaks because
       1. Much more abundant resources and continuing promises to improve with new technologies
       2. Cheap capital that could count on the above more tangible, massive but “low risk” and low ROI

       couple of things that could turn the shale peak into a nose dive:
       1. Cheap capital suddenly dried up
       2. Marginal ROI become zero or even negative for long and hopeless because the initial ROI estimate was based on an inflated EUR per well or PPP resources, oil price stay around or under $60 for long.

18. dolph99

    12/07/2025

    A goodbye, of sorts.

    Gentlemen, I’ve been following the peak oil and collapse debates for coming on 17 years now, since late 2008. It’s amazing how much time has gone by.

    I’m turning 45, and I’ve now come to the realization that I will die before I witness any major decline. I’m feeling fine right now, just call it a gut instinct. I am now almost 100% convinced I will not personally witness the decline. This is good for me personally in many ways, and all of you as well, but bad in others…all of our discussions are somewhat moot, since we aren’t even the generation that will witness the end.

    So, I will leave it up to future young people to deal with and discuss this. Our role is to enjoy all that this modern world has to offer, without guilt, or without thought to past or future.

    Thanks for your years and contributions, everyone.

    1. SRSrocco

       12/08/2025

       dolph99,

       You’re leaving right when the Party is starting?

       While we will likely continue to see overall global petroleum production increase for the next several years, it looks like we have already hit PEAK of NET OIL ENERGY.

       Watch now as Debts really increase as we head over the Net Energy Cliff 2030.

       steve

    2. Iver

       12/08/2025

       Dolph99

       There is much more going on than just peak Oil Production.

       There are other things far more important. Peak soil where each year over 30 billion tonnes are lost, much from the best cultivated land. This loss is reducing the amount of food grown in many countries.
       Unlike peak oil, there are no alternatives to soil. Rising population is crashing headlong into soil degradation.

       https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/2025-05/DDD%20factsheet%20EN.pdf

       On top of this we have now peak water. Each year the amount of water available for each human is declining. Some countries are better off than others. But even places like the States there are areas under severe strain and transportation of fresh water is very costly and opposed by people who have enough.

       https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/16/global-water-crisis-food-production-at-risk

       The people who know nothing of the subject, claim that this simple solution will work here or there. The truth is complex costly and involves national governments protecting their water from going into another country. Often they hate each other. So believe me you will be affected by these issues before long.

       Our food bill has nearly doubled in 10 years. This is just the start.

       We are already at peak net energy return on investment. Bills are constantly increasing, cheap renewables is a stinking myth.

       Things may not be as boring as you think

    3. LeeG

       12/09/2025

       I’m feeling fine as well. At 45 the odds are you’ll be around another 30 yrs. Plenty of time to revisit the topic. Who knows maybe AGI will appear, fusion power developed and Jesus returns to do whatever is in the script.

    4. Paul Pukite (@whut)

       12/12/2025

       “that I will die before I witness any major decline”

       Yet, we are in the middle of a solar/wind/battery revolution. And data centers in the mix.

       Historically,, declines are often obscured by transformations.

19. DC

    12/08/2025

    A new 12 month average peak in World C+C output has been reached. The old trailing 12 month peak in Feb 2019 was 82962 kb/d and based on new EIA statistics out today the trailing 12 month average for World C+C in Aug 2025 was 83135 kb/d, about 173 kb/d higher than the previous 12 month average peak.

    Data at page linked below

    https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/monthly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=00000000000000000000000000000000002&u=0&f=M&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&t=C&g=none&l=249–249&s=94694400000&e=1754006400000

    1. Anonymous

       12/11/2025

       Have we hit a new monthly record yet?

       I’m still waiting to say “I told you so” to Ron’s peak oil call from 2018 (itself just a couple years after another failed peak prediction).

       So far, I thought he still had cover. Unless I missed it, already.

    2. Nick G

       12/11/2025

       Anonymous,

       If you look at the EIA data that Dennis provided, you’ll see that we’ve hit a new monthly high.

    3. Anonymous

       12/12/2025

       Thanks for the info, Nick. (Link not working for me. Gives a EIA page, but not a graph or table.)

       I knew we were getting close, but thought maybe Ron still had coverage on the monthly peak number itself.. Guess not, based on your comment.

20. Bob Meltz

    12/08/2025

    There will be an offshore Gulf of Mexico Federal lease sale this Wednesday, December 10th. It has been billed “Big, Beautiful Gulf Sale 1”. Under the old lease sale naming convention it would have been called Sale 262.
    This sale was already scheduled under the Biden Administration, but, since coming into office, the Trump Administration has set up a new GOM leasing schedule with sales twice a year, rather than once every 2 years as was established by the Biden Administration.
    This should be an interesting sale because it has been 2 years since the last one. In my opinion, a “successful” sale should see at least 200 leases receiving bids. At the last sale, in December 2023, 311 leases received bids (299 accepted bids), but 35 were for Carbon Capture. The total high bid amount for the 299 accepted bids was $372 million.
    Let’s see what happens!

    1. DC

       12/08/2025

       Bob,

       Please let us know how the lease sale goes on Dec 10.

       Thanks.

    2. DC

       12/10/2025

       BBB GOM Lease Sale

       https://www.boem.gov/oil-gas-energy/big-beautiful-gulf-1-bbg1-oil-gas-lease-sale

       “On Dec. 10, 2025, BOEM held Lease Sale BBG1. The sale generated $279,433,757 in high bids for 181 blocks across 80 million acres in federal waters of the Gulf of America. Thirty companies submitted 219 bids totaling $371,881,093.”

       About 1.2% of the 81.2 million acres offered received bids (about 1 million acres)

       Sale amount for accepted bids was about 279 million total.

21. Ovi

    12/08/2025

    Driverless Trucks Hauling Frac Sand Coming to the Permian

    MIDLAND, Texas–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Aurora Innovation, Inc. (NASDAQ: AUR), the leader in self-driving freight, today announced a commercial agreement with Detmar Logistics, a leading provider in dry bulk and frac sand logistics solutions, to autonomously transport proppants around the clock for one of the world’s largest multinational oil and gas companies.

    The deployment marks the first time frac sand will be hauled autonomously on public roads and highways in the Permian Basin.

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251208402547/en/Detmar-Selects-Aurora-to-Deploy-Expanded-Fleet-of-Autonomous-Trucks-for-Major-Energy-Producer

    1. Hickory

       12/09/2025

       In US and Canada there are about 3.8 million truck drivers, about 1/10th of which are north of the border. I suppose that heavily urban route drivers are less at risk for being replaced, for the time being.

       Aurora is based in Pittsburgh-
       “Aurora (Nasdaq: AUR) is delivering the benefits of self-driving technology safely, quickly, and broadly to make transportation safer, increasingly accessible, and more reliable and efficient than ever before. The Aurora Driver is a self-driving system designed to operate multiple vehicle types, from freight-hauling trucks to ride-hailing passenger vehicles, and underpins Aurora’s driver as a service products for trucking and ride-hailing. Aurora is working with industry leaders across the transportation ecosystem, including Aumovio, FedEx, Hirschbach, NVIDIA, PACCAR, Ryder, Schneider, Toyota, Uber, Uber Freight, Volvo Trucks, Volvo Autonomous Solutions, and Werner.”

22. DC

    12/10/2025

    Average futures price for HH for Jan to Dec 2026 futures contract as of 10:21 AM USET on Dec 10, 2025 is $4.06/MMBTU. The average future contact for all 12 months of 2027 is trading at $3.94/MMBTU. For later years such as 2038, there is prior settle data (probably modelled) which for all 12 months has an average price of $3.43/MMBTU.

    The futures market is not predicting higher natural gas prices beyond 2026.

    Data from link below

    https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.quotes.html

    For WTI futures contracts for all 12 months of 2026 the average price is $57.50/b, long term futures contracts for Dec 2032 are at about $62.44/b. So expectations of high oil prices in the future (say over $63/bo) are not currently predicted by the futures market.

    If the futures market is correct on future prices for oil and natural gas tight oil and shale gas would tend to be on the low end of my predicted scenarios as the production of shale gas and tight oil will not be profitable at such low prices.

23. Iver

    12/11/2025

    The Venezuelan government has been arresting and killing political opponents for years.

    https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/americas/south-america/venezuela/report-venezuela/

    The desperate government is facilitating drugs production and export.

    Trump is the only one with the guts to try and destroy this evil regime. Credit where it’s due.

    If the United States states manages to install a democratic parliament then Venezuela oil production will certainly increase.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Regime-Change-in-Venezuela-Could-Trigger-Oil-Price-Spike-Then-Slump.html

    Another 2 million barrels of oil coming onto the market, which will ensure a longer peak and far more climate chaos.

    1. DC

       12/11/2025

       Iver,

       The US does not and should not rule the world.

       It is up to the people of Venezuela to overthrow a dictator.

    2. DC

       12/11/2025

       Trump talks tough, but at his core he is a coward.

       US citizens are not up for another war. Send UK troops to do the job.

    3. DC

       12/11/2025

       Nothing in your links about government association with drug trade.

    4. Iver

       12/11/2025

       DC

       Don’t you know how to search

       https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclusive/how-venezuela-became-a-gangster-state/

       Are you saying that the U.S. government should allow islamic extremists to get a nuclear weapon?

       I do find left wing woke like yourself enjoy freedom it never accepts that it has cost many lives to attain

24. Ovi

    12/11/2025

    An update to World Oil Production has been posted.

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/record-august-world-oil-production/