104 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum December 9, 2022”

  1. I have been confused by the different claims for methane warming effect, from 25 to over 200 times carbon dioxide. On a molecule to molecule basis (i.e. based on concentration rather than the amount released) the latest, and recently increased, number is 45; see here: https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2021/09/the-definitive-co2-ch4-comparison-post/.

    Because the absorption bands for methane overlap those of other GHGs the exact number depends on concentration of carbon dioxide, so changes with time. The absorption bands can get wider with gas concentration (because of molecular collisions and the dollar effects), but the more important effect is the concentration at which they become saturated. Moving higher in the atmosphere concentrations fall and when the bands become unsaturated the heat is released (rather than being reabsorbed). With higher concentrations on the ground this point moves higher, is therefore cooler, and the energy released is less (hence the atmosphere has to warm up overall so that a new equilibrium can be reached). There is evidence that methane is lasting longer in the atmosphere as increasing carbon monoxide from wildfires is reducing the scrubbing efficiency of the hydroxyl radical. Presumably the height in the atmosphere where the scrubbing occurs has an impact on the methane heating. I understood that the radical is formed high up, from ionising radiation, which may mean its loss will allow higher concentrations in methane to extend into higher and cooler altitudes, and hence increase the effect more than just from the simple methane concentration change.

    With methane concentrations varying so much between the high northern latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere this heating effect changes significantly geographically as well.

    1. So we we do is, harness that ish from all the sources in our planet and pressurize it then blast it to another planet with SpaceX rockets, moving across space at the speed of light. Boom, we solved global warming.

  2. There have been a few recent papers concerning the masking effect of aerosols. The covid shutdown and reduction in sulphur emissions from shipping have provided real time experiments in the effects of reduced aerosols over the past two years. All indications are that the masking effect is higher than previously thought and used in the future pathway projections from the IPCC. Overall this means that the two degree Paris limit is already out of reach – reducing emissions would also reduce the masking effect. One paper gives the new effect as 1.1 W/m2, compared to 0.7 previously used. This produces an earth sensitivity of 2.9 to 4.5 degrees celsius. The problem is that the impacts from the effects in other papers are probably additive to this. Combined, this means we have an even smaller window to avoid even three degrees (a point at which I think cereal cultivation, and hence civilisation, would be impossible, but additionally may lead to a hot house runaway, so large mammal species would also be impossible.

    1. It definitely excludes our civilisation experiment. I’m sure outside of Venus conditions, humans will exist in small tribes at the poles. Anything more and you’re looking at a bad time.

    2. Not out of reach.

      Just create more pollution until the CO2 is bound in limestone again…

      That should also been the reason why the warming started in the 90s in earnest – they filtered all the western coal plants in this time, and after 1990 the east european ones or closed them.

      We need more dirt! (Not really)

  3. Hi gang, I have publ a new essay on my website:

    The Fine-Tuned Universe

    Why You Believe What You Believe
    Part One
    The Philosophy of Materialism

    This is a rather long essay. I put a lot of effort into it. I will soon stop putting notices here so email me at Darwinian200@gmail.com if you would like to to be notified when a new post is put up. There will likely be about two per month but that could change.

    Thanks, Ron

    1. I have read about those who suggest that a universe that is ‘out of tune’ with regard to some ‘constant’ would end in the creation of a ‘stillborn’ universe with no life in it. But one of my questions is, ‘Why change only one constant?’ I mean, if one constant shifts, then others can too, yes? In any case, I seem to recall already mentioning this sort of thing hereon.

      Belated congrats on your book by the way.
      Maybe it sells well and/or you get fame/notoriety and go down in history as one of the greats. Somehow I doubt that but hey, I’m only one ‘detractor’ who understands that much written history, if not all of it, is or approaches bullshit.

      I mean, you have objective reality and then you have human-filtered reality, right?

      So I won’t begrudge you (if at the same time, will find it next to impossible to take you too seriously) for ‘backdoor-mangling’ my previous comment hereon about some aspect of the covid thing and mischaracterizing it to boot (I guess to fit your belief, value and/or public-image system or whatever), nor deleting yet another comment of mine on your site’s section about fine-tuned universes…

      Or, while I’m on about this, apparently writing or having someone write for you about you on this site, something like ‘A really great guy.’. (That seemed to come not long after that nasty Shellman site comment-thread attack on you, which wasn’t me. Not my style for one. If it was, I’d have taken ownership of it. Mike apparently removed that little bit of reality in any event.)

      In any case, speaking of ownership, I’m unsure one can do those kinds of things and write a book worth reading. Bu-u-ut the universe does have its ways. LOL And I seem to recall Paul mentioning something of some books getting lots of star ratings despite their qualities, or something like that.

      Anyway, if you would like to email me a digital copy of your book for free, I’d nevertheless consider reading it and maybe even, if so, critiquing it too. But that’s only ‘consider’. No guarantees.

      😀

      1. Caelan, thanks for the comment but I don’t reply to things I posted on that blog, The Fine-Tuned Universe, on this blog. Post it there and I would be glad to reply.

        Thank you again, Ron

    1. “The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago. The second best time is now.”

  5. Wind and solar

    Totally useless when it is freezing cold, still air.

    https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&stacking=stacked_absolute_area

    As you can see the problem stretches from the U.K. across France, Holland and Germany and also

    Northern Europe would need to store enough electricity for 80% of it’s consumption for every single day of the last 7
    Germany already has one of the highest installed wind and solar per capita and even if they tripled that. There would have been only 1 day in the last 10 which would have produced enough electricity. This is before trying to power any of the 40 million cars and 5 million trucks that they hope will be electric.

    In UK we have been warned of National Power cuts, only LNG from the States is keeping us warm and powered at the moment and our bills doubled even before Ukraine. Now bills which were £80 a month are £250 and we have been told they will hit £300

      1. Tony Seba is a moron. There, I said it.

        Let’s talk about Shellenberger or Klare for that matter.

      2. No, because we can just point to Europe shivering in the cold as a rebuttal for Seba’s techno cornucopian viewpoint. If any nation was going to attain this vision, it was Germany. Guess what Germany is burning metric buttloads of right now just to keep the lights on.

      3. John

        I really don’t give a fig what Tony “false prophet” Seba says.
        He preaches false hope to gullible people who cannot face the terrible reality that we are facing.
        Germany has already spent $500 billion on wind and solar and in the last 10 days it has produced about 10% of What Germany needs.
        Even if Germany increased that investment by 500% with money it no longer has all that storage would be gone in the first 3 days of this last 10 days period. After that people start dying in the tens thousands every day if they have no heat at all.
        Seba disciples say you can power houses with cars, right so how do you get to work? And how do you recharge the 250 million cars in Europe when your 500% increase in wind and solar is powering less than half the economy for two weeks? You cannot build cheap renewable energy using expensive energy, China manufacturing is all based on cheap coal.
        China knows very well solar and wind can’t do it that is why they are investing another 300 billion in coal power stations and opening two huge coal mines.

        1. Renewables wreck the economics of conventional electricity generation. There’s no going back.

          Putin’s dreams of people freezing to death in Germany aren’t coming true. Nobody will bow down to him. They aren’t even coming true in Ukraine, where he is bombing the energy infrastructure. He overplayed his hand.

          The solution to heating problems is better insulation, not wasting more energy.

          1. Alim

            Before we started building all these wind turbines our electricity was really cheap.
            We got more wind power than ever and electricity is really expensive.
            Why

            Because like today wind is producing a pathetic 2% of what we need,

            https://www.bmreports.com/bmrs/?q=eds/main

            despite the fact that the UK has 28,000Mw of installed wind it is producing 1,000 or 2,000Mw for several days.

            https://www.renewableuk.com/page/UKWEDhome

            This means we have to pay to maintain gas plants as backup for the hundreds of occasions wind is nowhere.

            1. I’m not saying it’s a good thing or a bad thing.I’m telling you the traditional generation industry is dead, like it or not.

              The IEA agrees. They predict “Renewables are set to account for over 90% of global electricity capacity expansion over the forecast period[2023-2027]”. They also predict that by 2027, there will be more solar capacity than capacity for any other electricity source.

              https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2022/executive-summary

              If you think energy is too expensive, I recommend you look for ways to cut your consumption.

        2. Charles, Germany has spent $500 billion on RE? The numbers I see are more like $150 billion…

          Seba is saying Germany would need almost 5 days of (battery or other) storage to get through winter. As you point out RE has supplied 10% in the last 10 days. It would need to provide 50% in Seba’s scenario, so a 5x investment increase, as you also note.

            1. Charles,
              Your dream of avoiding wind or solar energy deployment is wishful thinking in a world over 8 billion and with the decline of fossil solar energy on the near horizon.
              The prices that Europe is experiencing for Nat Gas this year is just a preview of the early trend.
              The sooner that you as a UK resident realizes that wind energy energy is intermittent and that the inconvenient fact will have to be a big part of the decision making process and planning, the sooner you will find that the rough diet is to be expected.
              You may conclude that all all UK energy deployment money should go to nuclear or coal energy. That is a debate for your country to undergo.
              What is the cost for Hinckle C nuclear energy, and how long will it take to build another?

            2. I see that says 6,221GWh of battery storage, which is around 3.5 working days.

              During this low wind power period the batteries would be drained by the 2nd of December.

              https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&stacking=stacked_absolute_area&week=48

              There would not be enough wind and solar in the following week to power the current economy let alone power all the heat pumps, recharge all those batteries and recharge all the electric vehicles so people can get to work.

              https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&stacking=stacked_absolute_area&week=49

            3. “6.8GW would not last an hour”

              . . . assuming no change in consumption habits.

              There is a need to learn to live differently.

              There is no need to heat or cool whole houses, “warm rooms” and “cool rooms” should become standard in the move to do more with less.

              We now live in a lifestyle village in a benign climatic region and live very comfortably on five to seven KWh per day . . . when we lived on generators in the bush, we also managed easily on thirteen amps max and intermittent supply.

              Cheers from Australia.

    2. Sooooo, let’s all just go back to burning everything in sight and everything will be back to normal. After all climate change is just a liberal hoax and these high temperatures and weird weather that we’ve been experiencing over the past few years are just the effects of increased sunspot activity! /sarc

    3. People who oppose wind and solar power virtually ALWAYS forget to mention the very best reason at all, from a dollars and cents point of view, for having LOTS of wind and solar farms:

      MONEY SAVED long term by way of avoiding the purchase of ever more expensived depleting namely oil, coal, and natural gas.

      We used to burn a good bit of oil for heat and for electricity, but oil is and has been too expensive to use it this way for a couple of decades or longer, and so there are only a few places left that burn oil to make electricity………. places with LOTS of cheap oil, so much they can afford to waste it. Nationalized oil in a few countries in the Middle Eastern area. OPEC oil.

      Depletion is real. We wouldn’t be up in Alaska ( have BEEN in Alaska for fifty years already) and out in two or three mile deep sea water except that such places are the only ones left TO look for oil.

      Every kilowatt hour of electricity generated for the next thirty years at a brand new wind or solar farm will be seen as a WORLD CLASS bargain in ten or fifteen years, because between depletion and the OWNERS ( meaning Russia and other oil exporters such as Saudi Princes and Princesses) you are GOING TO BE paying double or triple what you are paying NOW.

      If you aren’t BURNING gas to make electricity when the sun is shining, or the wind is blowing, you can put that gas into storage so that there WILL BE enough to make it thru an extended period of bad wind and solar power weather.

      Furthermore if you are using more wind and solar electricity, and less electricity generated with expensive IMPORTED fuel, you can be just as safe with somewhat smaller expenditures on national security.

      1. None of these systems are lifetime guarantees. You still have to repair and replace them, something which is a pretty major deal given all the fossil fuels used to make them in the first place.

        They’re just less expensive and damaging in some ways than others compared to fossil fuels. The system isn’t getting rocked because we go for PV cells and 747 sized turbines instead. As noted above, less energy usage and better insulation would offer faster dividends right now.

      2. “If you aren’t BURNING gas to make electricity when the sun is shining, or the wind is blowing, you can put that gas into storage so that there WILL BE enough to make it thru an extended period of bad wind and solar power weather.”

        The problem with this is that we invariably use any excess fossil fuels to simply increase the size of the economy. We can only start saving gas if we realize growth needs to end.

        1. ” We can only start saving gas if we realize growth needs to end.”
          Yes, and that will only be the collective understanding once hard physical limits are already showing up in the marketplace in a painfully obvious way- products like petrol or grain being unaffordable or simply unavailable for purchase.
          Then there will be some realization.

          1. The growth of gasoline consumption needs to end. But value isn’t measured in joules or kilograms.
            At the end of the nineteen century. it was pretty obvious that cities like London and NYC couldn’t handle more horse manure. But that wasn’t the end of economic growth. It’s pretty obvious now that we have to stop living from extracting value from the environment.

  6. LLNL did a fusion and so energy crisis and climate crisis is cancelled. It was a good run, guys. Loved this blog.

    1. UK is FUBAR .
      The British grid operator is paying £6,000 per megawatt-hour to Vitol for keeping its Rye House power station running right now

      That’s 100 times the normal price pre-crisis, a record for a gas plant, and at the (no longer so) sacred “Value of Lost Load” .
      On 11th Dec they paid GBP 2585 per mw/h . Buying everywhere and at any price .

  9. “Shifting all vehicles to battery electric vehicles would demand more than 40% of the country’s electricity production, the American Transportation Research Institute said in a report.”

    The report includes trucks and rail.
    In a world where oil is peaking out, 40% looks like a good deal.
    Of course, downsizing should be a first priority.

    https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ATRI-BEV-infrastructure-energy-requirements-report/638408/

    This pathway assumes that the grid isn’t all shot up.

    1. Who will win: one massive national power distribution machine or a bunch of good ol’ boys and a .22?

      Can’t wait to run this experiment.

      1. Lots of peeps around my way running fridges for meds and CPAP at night. Not a lot of cops about, but any good old boys caught shooting up the grid would likely become known as “bad examples”.

  10. From the motor trend on other thread:
    switching to EVs charged via burning coal would result in only needing the equivalent of about 6 million barrels(Vs 9m)
    To be sure this is more promising than DOE fusion news today. But it will never happen due to factors already discussed here ( mining limitations, ramping up the grid, the sheer scale of converting ice)
    But the trend is more ev’s with decreasing costs.
    A couple of my cars got close to 300k. Is that about 5 battery packs that still aren’t recyclable? I saved a lot , so far. to switch or not to?
    As long as the EV cost remains much higher beggars will not ride.
    Thanks for all the info you provide.
    Does anyone expect a 70s oil shock with rationing?

    2. ‘Does anyone expect a 70s oil shock with rationing?’

      Certainly possible, depending on which country you are in. The only thing that will prevent it this decade is very poor global economic growth, such as supplied by the covid pandemic or a financial/debt crises.

      Rationing may be in the form of high and higher prices…at first.
      The waiting list for EV’s in this scenario will be very, very long.

      1. I doubt there will be true rationing in the form of vouchers or some other type of limit on gasoline purchases. “Rationing” by price is kind of SOP in a market economy.

        I also expect that the supply of oil is likely to be adequate through Dec 2023, beyond that it will depend on how fast production increases for lithium, cobalt and other limited material supplies needed for the ramping production of lithium ion batteries. Oil prices might be high from 2025 to 2028 (where high means higher than $120/bo for Brent crude in 2022 US$).

        Keep in mind that my guesses are wrong about 100% of the time, especially about the future.

    4. Hi Agemennon,

      The regulars here are old dogs, and a brand new troll puppy like you ain’t gonna teach us any new tricks, or fool us with your flat out lying bullshit.

      BUT I’m replying because of your last line.

      ” Does anyone expect a 70s oil shock with rationing?”

      I for one, meaning personally, believe that such an oil shock is entirely possible but probably not very likely at least not within the next few years……. UNLESS it’s brought on as the result of a war, and there’s a war going on THIS VERY MINUTE that could take a turn for the worse and we could be standing in lines for gasoline just about all over the world.

      My personal opinion is that oil is in the process of peaking, may have peaked already, or will peak in the near future, but that the decline in supply will be gradual enough that rationing won’t be necessary anytime soon, meaning five years or longer. We’re buying electric cars and trucks now, and there are PLENTY of ICE models available that are in the forty mile per gallon or better fuel economy class.

      So I expect diesel and gasoline to be expensive from here on out, but probably not rationed anytime soon here in the USA and probably not in Western Europe.

  12. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, DECEMBER 12
    “The cost of the Russian war in Ukraine will likely continue to undermine Russian President Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical campaigns worldwide.”
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-12

    12,000 Russian Troops Were Supposed To Defend Kaliningrad. Then They Went To Ukraine To Die.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/10/27/12000-russian-troops-once-posed-a-threat-from-inside-nato-then-they-went-to-ukraine-to-die/?sh=57aac8dc3375

    The Russian military’s poor performance and war crimes demonstrate the hollowness of its hyper-masculine propaganda. It will be hard for Russia to protect all those Valuable Natural Resources as the straits get dire; Army’s shit.

    Does China have designs on Siberia?
    “Siberia, a region bigger and richer than any place on Earth, with resources that underpin Putin’s economy. It is Asian, not European, and one day will mostly fall into China’s hands. Xi knows this and needn’t lift a finger to speed along this outcome. To some, a Chinese takeover of Siberia may seem preposterous. But Putin’s flailing war against the West increases the odds that the Russian Federation itself may atomize.”
    https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3654427-does-china-have-designs-on-siberia/amp/

    Interesting times! I wonder how long until Putin’s hanging from a tank barrel, or indeed until Russia is but a small strip of land between the Baltic Sea and the Ural Mountains?

    What Ted Cruz and Tucker Carlson Don’t Understand About War
    “Russian President Vladimir Putin and his generals aren’t the only people who think that the more ruthless, hypermasculine, and reflexively brutal an army is, the better it performs on the battlefield. That view also has fans in the United States.”
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/russia-ukraine-woke-military-tucker-carlson/671569/

    “1N73LL1G3NC3 15 7H3 4B1L17Y 70 4D4P7 70 CH4NG3” ~ 573PH3N H4WKING

  13. Trade and Supply Chain Barriers Delay Impact of Historic Clean Energy Law
    “The U.S. added 4.6 gigawatts (GW) of new solar capacity in Q3 2022, a 17% decrease from the same quarter last year as trade barriers and ongoing supply chain constraints continue to slow America’s clean energy progress. These disruptions will cause a 23% decline in solar installations this year compared to 2021,”
    https://www.seia.org/news/trade-and-supply-chain-barriers-delay-impact-historic-clean-energy-law

    1. Tim Morgan also concentrates on the importance of energy to the economy, less so on the environment, in fact not at all. His latest is here: https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com. It is more concentrating on the knock on effects of quantitive easing for the coming recession and how pension expectations may be over optimistic.

  15. Question for anybody and everybody:

    What is your personal opinion of the likelihood of an oil supply crisis ( which could be brought on by a war for instance, or for any other plausible reason ) resulting in forced rationing of gasoline and diesel fuel in the USA and in various Western European countries?

    Thanks in advance for your opinions and any links you may have handy.

    2. OFM, on ‘likelihood of an oil supply crisis…resulting in forced rationing ‘
      I’ll go higher than Dennis on the risk over the coming 10 years, up to 2 in 3.
      Not because of inadequate theoretical production and conservation/replacement,
      but because of continued ugly and disruptive behaviors by humanity-
      whether its trade wars or sabotage, bombings or anarchy.
      Hopefully I am wrong and the world will be no more cruel and disorderly than it already is.

      1. Hickory,

        My assumption is that human behavior over the next 10 will be much like human behavior over the past 60 years, but who knows, we have weathered Oil crises, the GFC, and the worst global pandemic in the past century. WW3 would change things, but my hope remains that we avoid that, if I am wrong than your odds would probably be too low, in the case of WW3 I would raise the odds to 99 of 100. My guess is that the odds of WW3 are low and I hope I am right on that.

    3. Does anyone know the range of the nuclear missile’s Pakistan has are?

      They could easily collapse and some of the apocalyptics over there may take a shot at the Strait of Hormuz.

  16. For the various people who post trash about wind and solar electricity:
    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/12/13/stellantis-signs-second-largest-corporate-ppa-in-us-history/

    “Automaker Stellantis has signed the second-largest corporate PPA on record, in order to procure 400 MW of new solar in Michigan under utility DTE Energy’s MIGreenPower program.

    With its participation in the utility program, Stellantis will be able to attribute 100% of its electricity use at 70 Michigan manufacturing and office facilities to solar by 2026. That will reduce the company’s emissions in North America by 50% and across its manufacturing facilities by 30% overall.

    The clean energy commitment represents BloombergNEF’s second-largest corporate PPA on record, and the agreement with DTE Energy represents enough clean energy to power 130,000 homes each year. The 400 MW agreement trails the 650 MW solar agreement that rival automaker Ford signed with DTE Energy in August to provide clean power to its respective Michigan operations.”

    So……. two of the big three have done the biggest deals EVER for clean renewable electricity.

    If this is the way they’re headed in their FACTORIES, how long do you think it will be before they give up on gasoline and diesel fuel, and switch to batteries and or fuel cells?

    The batteries are going to be charged with wind and solar power, and the hydrogen for fuel cells will be
    MANUFACTURED by stripping it out of water using wind and solar power.

    Get used to it.

    Is General Motors going all electric by 2035?
    In January 2021, General Motors announced its plans to phase out vehicles using internal combustion engines completely by 2035. The automaker will go completely carbon-neutral at all facilities worldwide by 2040.Nov 4, 2022

    1. “By 2040” lol file that one under “too little, too late”. It is “A Hope” though! Whatever helps you sleep at night, I guess.

      Where peeps gonna be driving to, the grocery store?

      https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/society-will-collapse-by-2040-due-to-catastrophic-food-shortages-says-study-10336406.html?amp

      https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181011103708.htm

      https://www.quantumrun.com/macro-prediction/climate-change-and-food-scarcity-2040s-future-food-p1

      There’s gonna be some long faces when affluent America realize the future is not primarily a mobility problem. Ya’ll are gonna starve.

      “Services need to adapt to a drastic decline in population health status, climate refugees, disasters, and disruptions to the supply chain. I don’t see anyone planning for that. Everyone seems to be on the historical trajectory of anticipating status quo and evermore budgets.” ~ Andrew Jameton

      1. We Yankee’s not going to starve, barring exceptionally bad luck, but we’re sure as hell in for some tough times in the not so distant future.

        We can and almost certainly will pull thru the coming bottleneck crisis by going to a wartime style managed economy. It’ll be VERY tough, but very few of us are going to starve, unless the climate goes TOTALLY to hell within a very short time frame, or WWIII wipes out irreplaceable infrastructure such as the electrical grid and oil production and distribution industry. Replacing this kind of infrastructure from a dead stop within a short to medium time frame is utterly impossible.

        I anticipate that people in third world countries and possibly in some modern countries WILL starve by the tens of millions, and possibly by the hundreds of millions, not to mention that as many more may well die violent deaths or succumb to contagious diseases.

        There’s no real reason to believe that the coming bottleneck will hit everybody in every major region of the world the same year, or even within two, three , four or five years.

        If things get really tough, so tough that food aid is simply not happening, a few hundred million at a time will starve in place in Sub Saharan Africa, or Indonesia, etc. The remainder of the population, with a third to three quarters of the previous population dead or possibly emigrated, will probably have land , water and other resources enough to feed themselves for some time after that…… maybe for decades.

        Now as to how much of our current way of life we will have to give up is concerned, that’s anybody’s guess.

        It’s not like the USA, or Canada plus the USA, or the Americas or these plus Western Europe, REALLY need the rest of the world.

        The rest of the world doesn’t have anything we can’t substitute , or simply do without, if we must.

        1. “There’s no real reason to believe that the coming bottleneck will hit everybody in every major region of the world the same year, or even within two, three , four or five years.” ~ OFM

          Obviously. This is observable because the famine has already started elsewhere, but is not ‘here’ yet.

          “but very few of us are going to starve, unless the climate goes TOTALLY to hell within a very short time frame” ~ OFM

          Bingo, we have a winner!

          Multiple Breadbasket Failure
          https://bit.ly/3VW1Na4

          1. Starvation isn’t the thing that gets most people, it’s malnutrition that lowers immune response and allows various diseases to take hold (e.g. I think the plague needs the population to be generally short on protein intake to become an epidemic).

            1. Quite right George. It would do me well, as we approach these waning days of Babylon, to disambiguate Hunger, Malnutrition and Famine; as this is a food security crisis that is upon us.

              From what I understand quite a few zoonotic’s spill over, like bovine tuberculosis for example.

          2. Hi Survivalist,

            It’s entirely possible that we Yankees won’t be able to feed ourselves here in the USA…….. but rather unlikely in my estimation.

            We have simply HUGE expanses of land over most of our territory that CAN be used to produce food, land which is not being farmed at the present time. We have climates of just about every sort in the lower forty eight. Some of our land will be BETTER suited to farming as the climate goes downhill, for instance land at higher elevations, or in places that are currently too cold except for crops such as wheat or barley to actually thrive.

            Plus we have the option of dropping WAY down the food ladder and mostly giving up beef, etc.

            I do recognize that the global climate might go nuts over a span of just a year or two…… but I’m not seeing any evidence that this WILL be the case.

            For now I’m of the opinion that while it’s going to get really bad, I’m thinking this will come to pass over several years time, in respect to various parts of the world.

            1. Sounds an attractive place. I hope all the old folks can keep the Barbadian’s out.

    2. Charles has repeatedly pointed out the shortcomings of solar and wind.
      He is from the UK where solar is weak (and therefore expensive/kwhr).
      And wind is intermittent- and therefore unsuitable as a standalone energy source even in a country with a huge resource such as his.
      The UK will have to come to grips with the fact that in a world with fossil solar depletion,
      they will need to deploy a mixed system that includes a lot of storage capacity (wind to hydrogen for example).
      No simple or cheap answer to the problem of gross energy overshoot that we are all up against.

      Agree with Survi…and those articles he linked at quantum and science daily are spot on to the real big risk.

      1. Whilst I appreciate the move to wind and solar electricity, I’m all about it, I disagree with this notion that everybody has to buy a new car. In reality everybody has to get the fuck off the road. Plan for that.

        1. Yes, getting used to living with half as much as energy as now at a personal and national level would be a good start.

      2. UK has fairly excellent wind reserves (that don’t sound right. Resources?), and while not the Costa Del Sol, there’s loads of solar farms and solar thermal and PV on housing here. Is it a great investment? Not as great as wind, where offshore is a boon, but every little helps, as Tesco says.

        Your broader point is bang on though. This is all window dressing for a civ powered by FFs and with rapacious appetites in all resources and growth for all at any cost. Climate change is just one of the many whirls winds being reaped by us then, though there shan’t be any nation, first world or other, untouched.

        1. An energy resource that meets three criteria is called a reserve
          -discovered
          -technically recoverable
          -economically viable at current market conditions

          Consider solar energy- Huge global resource, but prior to roughly 2016 the reserves were minimal. As the cost of photovoltaic production dramatically declined during the last decade, a point was reached at which the resource became vast reserves. Close to 80% of the global population now live in zones with solar reserve ranging from good to excellent (except at night and winter).
          Ready for harvest.

          1. I should stop overthinking things and go with my first thought. Also, thanks, that clarifies it.

            1. Like you, I find the terminology of ‘reserve and resource’ odd. Not intuitive.
              Viable Resource would be better than Reserve, or something like that.

    1. Oh goody! Can’t wait to watch. Michaux is great, even if his infatuation with “organic” farming is decidedly nuts.

      1. I believe Sri Lanka recently tried upping their organics game and was a shit show.

      2. What Michaux says in the video, while interesting, is actually very old news to those of us who have been paying attention to peak oil for the last 20 years. In short, it is disturbing AS HELL.

        But I have to repeat this statistic, this bloody awful statistic:

        The amount of copper mined since 4000 BC is approximately 700 million tons. The amount of copper required to keep up with the growth of our current system for the next 20 years is estimated to be 700 million tons.

        In twenty years, we are projected to mine as much copper as we have for the last 6000 years. He states that the USGS reserve estimate is 880 million tons.

        My I dare to suggest that this isn’t going to happen?

        1. I feel that Simon has perhaps been a pioneer in attempting quantifying the magnitude of the problem and then to assign a prescription.

        2. While anyone with a grasp of exponentials and our planet being a finite sphere won’t be finding anything new here, it is nice to have someone crunch data to give hard numbers outside of the sentiment of “this will not last”.

        3. We can substitute aluminum for copper at the expense of lower efficiency……… but aluminum works just fine, if you use larger wires and follow the rules involved in using it.

          And I might be wrong, but somehow I doubt that the world wide economy will continue to expand for another twenty years. There might actually be a substantial amount of scrap copper available for recycling.

          Downsizing is going to be the rule, rather than the exception, in terms of using raw materials and energy.

          I foresee suburban citizens commuting to and from their mcmansions in micro mini two seat cars, one seat fore, one aft, with fifty mile range batteries, or maybe forty mile batteries and lawn mower sized engines enabling long distance highway travel at close to a hundred mpg on gasoline.

          There’s no reason such cars can’t have leather seats and premium sound systems, and be quite comfortable.

          Right now I’m in the process of helping an old friend totally overhaul an old twelve by fifty mobile home which will be retirement home. It’s going to be super insulated, to the point that when he’s doing any cooking, he won’t need any additional heat at all on days well below freezing.

          When we’re done, most people won’t have any idea this place is a “trailer”.

          People I’ve met online are paying three thousand bucks a month for apartments no bigger. His total cost, other than for the land, septic system, and well, will be well under fifteen thousand bucks, including a new high efficiency heat pump and a large garage/ workshop/ storage building.

          He has money enough to live in an ordinary house, no problem at all. He’s just decided that five hundred square feet indoors is ENOUGH, and he just doesn’t want any more space than that. His present house is three thousand square feet or so.

          We CAN do things differently. Those of us who are wise enough will get them done sooner.
          The rest of us will be scrambling to get them done on an emergency basis later.

          1. OFM
            I expect the economy to grow by downsizing. By that i mean providing goods and services that are an improvement on what is currently supplied, but have a smaller ecological footprint.

            As Richard Feynmann put it in the 1950s, there’s plenty of room at the bottom.

            1. “I expect the economy to grow by downsizing.”

              That is called economic contraction.
              Some sectors may do well, but the overall trend is down in a time of downsizing, even if people want to call it de-growth (lipstick on a dying patient).

  20. “A secret question hovers over us, a sense of disappointment, a broken promise we were given as children about what our adult world was supposed to be like. I am referring not to the standard false promises that children are always given (about how the world is fair, or how those who work hard shall be rewarded), but to a particular generational promise—given to those who were children in the fifties, sixties, seventies, or eighties—one that was never quite articulated as a promise but rather as a set of assumptions about what our adult world would be like. And since it was never quite promised, now that it has failed to come true, we’re left confused: indignant, but at the same time, embarrassed at our own indignation, ashamed we were ever so silly to believe our elders to begin with.

    Where, in short, are the flying cars? Where are the force fields, tractor beams, teleportation pods, antigravity sleds, tricorders, immortality drugs, colonies on Mars, and all the other technological wonders any child growing up in the mid-to-late twentieth century assumed would exist by now? Even those inventions that seemed ready to emerge—like cloning or cryogenics—ended up betraying their lofty promises. What happened to them?”

    1. I don’t know what the fuck your talking about. You must have watched way to much Might Mouse on Saturday morning. The Covid MRNA vaccine was ready to go in weeks and waiting for testing. You can sit your ass in front of your 80 inch flat screen and with a laptop an go anywhere your heart desires. Do you have a smart phone ? Have you been on an aircraft ? Google has been around for 25 years. Life is good, you only have yourself to blame. What’s the problem, you didn’t get your tribbles episode?

      1. “I don’t know what the fuck your talking about” Survivalist. “Life is good”. It’s been 50 years since I used a slide ruler, 20 years since I had a mortgage. My defined benefit retirement is direct deposited on the 1st every month. Have always bought new cars and sold them to people like yourself. A cold morning here is in the 40’s and going to wear shorts with a T shirt today. No need to chop fire wood here. It’s a cold day in hell when I meet someone my age I would trade my health with. I repeat, “Life is good”. My biggest problem is my Sub Zero is almost 25 years old and going to need a new one soon.

        What do you think ? Should I go to Costco today and buy a pallet of canned chicken and store it in my garage next to my ski boat. Yeah, “poor HB, life must be such a mystery”.

        1. Where’s your water coming from?

          I had suggested they you’re confused, because you give someone shit for posting the words of another in quotes. Your retort seems to list the reasons why your happy. But you don’t seem happy. You seem resentful. Maybe you’d be happier if you had less?

          You sound hyper materialistic. Hyper materialism is perhaps a root cause of our overshoot predicament.

          Self-Actualization As Consumerism
          https://medium.com/share-the-wealth/in-a-neoliberal-world-self-actualization-as-consumerism-a0e214708a54

          I like to drive my 2002 Land Rover Defender 90. Very minty! I didn’t buy it from you. I bought it from a guy in Spain and had it brought over in a sea can. Left hand drive!!

          Your dick wagging materialism comes off as if you think you’re superior to others, and that I’m perhaps low income or something, or less wealthy than you because I chop some wood now and then. Perhaps I am, but I don’t care; I live on just over 250 acres with ag irrigation water rights in the Bonners Ferry area (check the weather. check Google earth. Price it out). My other 4×4 ride is a fully restored 1982 Toyota Land Crusier. A cult classic. I got an amazing deal on it from a very talented good ol’ boy who did most of the work and partied out the rest. Lots of provenance! Turns a lotta heads…. as does the Defender 90 now that I think about it. For everyday carry I have a second hand 2003 Buick LeSaber Limited. A great deal I got from an old couple. Every mile I put on the Buick is one I don’t put on the collectibles. I prob made money on cars over the years. I’m handy and have a good eye. Buying new is a rip off. Not a status symbol. Congrats. How much you pay for someone to swap out an air filter for you?

          Alas, my boats are just a little aluminum fishing boat and a kayak. Mostly only the kids run ski boats around here. You rockin’ the hair transplants yet?

          Regarding the question about the food preps; I recommend becoming a food producer. I’m bullish on food. I took a fraction of the $ peeps spend on food storage preps and built an amazing Victory Garden, although I do maintain a pantry with about 2 years worth of eats in a rotating stock as it’s consumed. I’m currently eating at last years prices.

          Pretty soon, maybe next year, we’ll have some greenhouses set up and be exporting food. See how it shakes out. At the moment we’re focused on Woodmizer LT40 and making live edge boards. It’s great weather for running a saw. I’m very lucky.
          https://youtu.be/rZKthyTlGQ0

    4. Where, in short, are the flying cars? Where are the force fields, tractor beams, teleportation pods, antigravity sleds, tricorders, immortality drugs, colonies on Mars, and all the other technological wonders any child growing up in the mid-to-late twentieth century assumed would exist by now?

      None of these sound like particularly good ideas. And most of them were not promised in the near future.

      There has been a big shift in the aspirations of society. The idea that making everything bigger and more powerful is less attractive to the current generation. Most kids would rather have a smart phone than a car, and see driving as a chore.

      The idea we should fly around in spaceships exploring and colonizing the universe is a leftover from the age of exploration. We already know what’s out there — not much. And every square meter of the Earth is visible via satellite images. The age of exploration is over.

      Your scifi fantasies are 40 years out of date, what’s known as retrofuturism.

      https://rarehistoricalphotos.com/retro-future-predictions/

      Since the early 80s most science fiction has focused on post-industrial urban life, human-machine hybrids and virtual reality. People don’t travel much, since everywhere is the same. Gadgets have been replaced by smart devices and nanotech artifacts with quasi-biological features like self-repair.

      1. “People don’t travel much, since everywhere is the same” ~ Alim

        The Latest Travel Data
        https://www.ustravel.org/research/monthly-travel-data-report

        How Much Airline Revenue Comes From Business Travelers?
        https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/041315/how-much-revenue-airline-industry-comes-business-travelers-compared-leisure-travelers.asp

        Average miles driven per year in the U.S. (2022)
        https://www.thezebra.com/resources/driving/average-miles-driven-per-year/

        Alim has it that travel behavior is correlated to sameness, or lack of it, in perhaps visually tangible characteristics of place, and that there’s not much of it going on.

        Too much sci-fi!

        1. I was talking about people in science fiction books. I make no claim that the content of science fiction books reflects statistical reality.

          Your comments nasty and pointlessly insulting, and based on poor reading comprehension. Not a great contribution to any public forum.

          1. Gotcha. I had thought you were contrasting some elements of reality with the sci-fi. Not just contrasting sci-fi genres. Mea Culpa. I never read the shit.

  21. “With world temperatures set to rise more over the next 50 years than they have in the previous 6,000, scientists agree that far worse is still to come. Today, just one percent of the planet falls within so-called “barely liveable” hot zones: by 2050, the ratio could rise to almost twenty percent.”

    Carry on.

    1. The best spot I’ve found is where the southern end of the North American inland temperate rainforest overlaps with the north end of the Columbia River Drainage Basin; to wit, northern Idaho. Some loud mouths give the place a bad rap but it’s alright. Lots of proud gardeners. I’ve heard odd ball journalists I like say they felt not particularity welcome in places like Metaline Washington, but I feel that’s exaggerated. Nobody really fucks with one another or the tourists, and I find everyone quite polite. Zero urban angst.

      1. I’m going to move in and conquer Siberia while Russia is distracted with other matters. With present trends, I’ll be setting up the next Monte Carlo within the Arctic circle. Just waiting for the desperate climate refugees, I mean, paying punters, to come and make me rich.

        1. China could conquer Siberia even if Russia wasn’t distracted by other matters. But being that the Russian Army is falling in its sword in Eastern Ukraine, China will likely have an easier time of it.

          China/CCP will soon realize that the return on investment is much higher when the military is pointed to the north and the north west, and not to the south and the east.

          -The 21 EU members that are also NATO members have Russia in the box.
          -EU has succeeded in establishing a “monitoring mission” in Armenia and is advancing its plan to establish an OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) mission to the region, which will challenge Russia’s monopoly in peacekeeping/security guarantee on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. This is a big big embarrassment to Moscow and undermines Russia-led regional security organisations in Central Asia.
          -USA is “pivoting to Asia”.
          -China will pivot to Siberia, as will Kazakhstan.
          -Kazakhstan is wanting to attract western investment, this has resulted in cliches of pro-western interest groups among tbe elites.

          Carrots & sticks, and perhaps a few dominoes.

          A few “dial-a-yield” tactical nukes, which are fucking huge by the way, will likely pop off. Chemicals too. It’ll be nasty.

          Was China Betting on Russian Defeat All Along?
          https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/was-china-betting-on-russian-defeat-all-along/

  23. This is so sad (and, potentially disastrous).

    DESTRUCTION OF BRAZIL’S CERRADO SAVANNA SOARS FOR THIRD YEAR IN A ROW

    Deforestation in Brazil’s Cerrado savanna rose for the third year in a row, government data showed on Wednesday, destroying a vital habitat for threatened species and releasing huge amounts of greenhouse gases that drive climate change.

    https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/12/15/destruction-of-brazils-cerrado-savanna-soars-for-third-year-in-a-row/

  24. In case you were wondering.

    GLOBAL COAL CONSUMPTION ON TRACK TO HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH

    “Global coal demand is on track to reach an all-time high this year amid the energy crisis and the resulting spike in natural gas prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday, expecting coal consumption to likely remain flat after 2022 through 2025 if energy transition is not accelerated.”

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Global-Coal-Consumption-On-Track-To-Hit-An-All-Time-High.html

      1. “Life is a series of idiotic images . . . a mishmash of pointless scenes . . . a brief series of senseless events . . . surrender to it.”

        Well, maybe—-

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