134 thoughts to “Open Thread Non Petroleum, August 8, 2022”

  1. What are the views of folks here about the renewable energy and electric vehicle elements of the Inflation Reduction Act?
    1. Will it make much of a difference in terms of changing the US energy structure?
    2. Will it really drive more EV sales?
    3. Does it really address the problems of EV manufacturing and adoption in the US?
    4. Will it lead to waste? If so, how?

    Thanks for any replies

    2. ” For decades, oil and gas executives have worked to create a political climate wholly allergic to comprehensive climate action. Part of that has been lobbying against climate legislation, of course, working to undermine bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and spread disinformation. But for nearly a century the same corporations have conducted an all-out attack on the ability of the US government to get big, good things done.

      Climate change is ultimately a planning problem: there is no entity other than the state that can electrify the country, expand the grid, build prodigious amounts of mass transit and wind down coal, oil and gas production in time to keep warming short of catastrophic levels. For all its many shortcomings, the FDR-era New Deal sought to construct a state capable of tackling such complicated problems. The right – supercharged by fossil fuel funding – set out to destroy it, polluting our politics with the idea that efficient markets are the only reasonable answer to what ails society. Predictably, they railed against the Green New Deal, too, which rejected that logic.

      …That the IRA’s most promising elements are a series of modest incentives to get corporations to do the right thing on climate – that demanding they actually do so feels so far out of reach – is the result of this long-running and largely successful ideological quest. This bill is woefully inadequate, featuring a cruel, casual disregard for those at home and abroad who will live with the consequences of boosting fossil fuel production as a bargaining chip for boosting clean energy. And it’s almost certainly better than nothing.”

      https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/09/congress-climate-bill-oil-companies

      1. Well, if it’s inadequate (gap analysis anyone?), then perhaps one should more seriously consider the risks, and expect some pain to come, as the consequences of climate change seem to be neither halted nor mitigated. Perhaps folks should do some preparing, get a green thumb, and stock up a bit; as one does when sensing a long spell of scarcity on the horizon.

        1. I’m like most folks – urban living without a lot of growing space. What do you think of green houses?

          1. I like greenhouses. I saw one placed in just about every possible spot one would practically fit when traveling through Poland in the early to mid 90’s. I trotted over to Eastern Europe for days off from working the former Yugoslavia around that time. Lots of home brew wine too. Mutual aid & community garden initiatives are my style now.

          2. If you’re willing to look after it, a small greenhouse can be a real treasure.

            I don’t know what they cost these days, ready to use turn key, and the cost no doubt varies by a factor of five or ten depending on what you get and where you live.

            I’ve always had too many other things to do to get into owning my own, but they’re common in my area.

            If you build a plain generic greenhouse with very little in the way of special equipment and features, you can use it without heating it to extend the gardening season anywhere from thirty to sixty days in temperate areas , spring and fall.

            Given the cost of nice veggies such as tomatoes and cucumbers, the return on the investment is entirely satisfactory if you approach a green house as a hobby rather than a chore.

            But even if it’s a chore to you, it’s still quite worthwhile for most people, because most of us don’t earn a whole lot of money. A few hours work, a few minutes at a time can save you twenty bucks an hour or more on veggies.

            1. Hopefully, for Nick’s own sake, he likes them as much as we do.

          3. I have seen some people pay very high prices for greenhouse heating.
            Plan carefully to avoid that.
            In general that means only use it to extend the season for a month or so- start tomatoes early for example.
            Don’t try to heat throughout a cold and dark winter- unless you have lots of surplus and cheap energy.

            1. Dead on.
              The only way you can afford to heat a greenhouse thru mid winter is if you’re selling some premium quality produce at a super premium price, and a lot of it.

              But a woodstove or waste oil stove can get you thru an earlier in the winter cold night or a later than expected cold night in late winter or early spring, and this is a gamble that’s worth running in a lot of cases.

              I would like to see somebody come up with a plan to get greenhouses permitted without a lot of red tape or taxes in places where excess heat is commonly being thrown off by industrial equipment.

              Even in the dead of winter a lot of factories generate enough surplus heat that it’s necessary to vent it outside and pull in cold air to cool things down.

              I’ve personally been on the premise of half a dozen such factories within fifty miles of my home, all of which had surplus space enough for a couple of big greenhouses within spitting distance.

          4. I had a small green house here in western Maine. I have also used cold frames and hoop tunnels. I have taken the green house down and now use only cold frames and low hoop tunnels. They are more cost effective, they are more flexible for crop rotation, they are easy to take down in the heat of the summer, they are less prone to various plant diseases, which can be a large problem in green houses. I can only get 2 season production here in the mountains of western Maine as snow fall, very short days and extreme cold are limiting. But for extending the growing season low hoops and cold frames cannot be beat. Heating green houses is just plain silly where I live. Heat sinks (water drums) and movable insulation first. Venting is very important as well.

    1. Survivalist

      Take a minute and Google the US summers of 1936 and 1937. Also Google the summer of 1911 in New York and New England. And stop drinking the cool aid.

      1. There is a difference between regional and global. And one or two outlying data points do not make a trend.

        1. Cheers. Note the decrease in annual variability. I wonder why. It doesn’t seem normal. Perhaps an exponential trend is about to diverge from the linear trend, but I would say that. Either way, the next El Niño is gonna be a shit show.

          1. Enso’s a-comin’
            Though this looks a lot like the previous two year’s and the El Niño faded away again.

      3. Ervin.
        You seem to be missing the forest for a few trees, meaning
        that yes there have been some hot times in the past
        but now we are starting to bury those old peaks in the current troughs.
        The 1930s would come in looking relatively cool now- see the chart of global temp’s

      4. Ervin. So you say the earth is flat.
        But what about the shape?
        And are there edges?

  3. Death Valley, the hottest and driest place in the US just saw the 4th 1-in-1,000 year rain event in less than 2 weeks in the US. An amount equal to 3/4 of Death Valley’s annual rainfall fell in 3 hours. I think that might be the 6th 1-in-1000year event for North America in the last couple weeks.

  5. GLOBAL COAL CONSUMPTION TO MATCH RECORD AS EU RUSHES TO SAVE GAS

    “Coal consumption in the European Union is set to rise by 7% this year as member states save scarce gas supplies, the IEA said. It expects strong demand to continue in the second half of the year after a number of EU countries extended the life of coal plants or reopened others to safeguard power supplies. Nations are trying to save gas for winter as Russian flows become increasingly uncertain.”

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/global-coal-consumption-to-match-record-as-eu-rushes-to-save-gas-1.1798259

    1. Yeah coal is the dirtiest and most expensive energy source, so coal plants are currently underutilized. Paradoxically, that makes them a “swing” source when other sources like NG get temporarily scarce.

      A “dead cat bounce”:

      “In finance, a dead cat bounce is a small, brief recovery in the price of a declining stock.[1] Derived from the idea that “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height”,[2] the phrase, which originated on Wall Street, is also popularly applied to any case where a subject experiences a brief resurgence during or following a severe decline. This may also be known as a Sucker Rally.[3]”

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce

    2. Nate Hagens talking with Steve Keen
      https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/30-steve-keen

      The first part is a demolition of classical economics. There’s some discussion on coal and how it is likely to grow in some scenarios at about one hour. The last 20 minutes is worth listening to, except the very end, as the most realistic view of likely collapse scenarios I’ve heard.

      1. I found it interesting that long-standing “red neck” conservative jurisdictions in Australia are now electing Green Party representatives to government; switching from supporting a right wing party to a left wing one. Who needs campaign door-knockers when one has so many climate disasters?

      2. George,

        Everyone agrees that energy is important. The key claim by Nate is that fossil fuel energy has some special quality that can’t be supplied by wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, geothermal, etc.

        So, here’s the basic question: are you arguing that fossil fuels can’t be replaced?

        1. Nick, I think you are asking the wrong question. The question is: Will fossil fuel be replaced before civilization as we know it collapses? I would say no but I am sure you have a different opinion.

          1. Ron,

            That’s a reasonable (and important) question for discussion, but I don’t believe it’s what Nate is claiming. Nor do I think that’s what George is arguing. He and Doug have been opposing the idea of wind, solar or EVs for quite some time now. They seems to be arguing that fossil fuels are the only thing that will work, and there’s just no point to even trying to transition to other energy sources.

            So…George…is that what you’re arguing??

            1. I did find George’s assertion “the most realistic view of likely collapse scenarios I’ve heard” to be quite a compelling reason to give it a listen; and now that I have done so, I tend to agree.

            1. There’s a big difference, and Ron’s suggestion, while reasonable, is a distraction from the basic question. Doug and George have been opposing wind, solar and EVs for quite some time, and yet they never say explicitly they’ve been doing that. And referring to a video by Nate is suggestive, but not explicit.

              So…George…let’s hear your opinion, clear and simple: do you oppose efforts to transition away from fossil fuels?

            2. “Doug and George have been opposing wind, solar and EVs for quite some time” ~ Nick

              Are they out protesting in the street, waving signs, blocking roads, joining Musk in voting Republican and supporting anti-vax Qtards in the next Republican primary? Do they disapprove of and attempt to prevent wind, solar and EVs? What does ‘oppose’ (verb) mean to you, Nick; not agreeing with your bountiful forecasts?

              I was not aware that referring to quite a good interview of Steve Keen by Nate is suggestive, but not explicitly arguing, that fossil fuels are the only thing that will work, and there’s just no point to even trying to transition to other energy sources. That’s quite a thread you’ve sewn.

              https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia

              You’ve lost the plot, Nick.

              Just out of curiosity, Nick, which basket are you putting all your eggs in? Are you Betting on Blue to Save You?

            3. Survivalist,

              This has been a long conversation, and I’m afraid you’re the one who has lost the thread. But, why not let George answer the question?

              George – what do you say?

            4. “To achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions globally by 2050 thus requires the deployment of >1 Mtoe of carbon-free energy consumption (~12,000 Mtoe/11,051 days) every day, starting tomorrow and continuing for the next 30 years.”

              “So the math here is simple: to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, the world would need to deploy 3 [brand new] nuclear plants worth of carbon-free energy every two days, starting tomorrow and continuing to 2050. At the same time, a nuclear plant’s worth of fossil fuels would need to be decommissioned every day, starting tomorrow and continuing to 2050.”

              “I’ve found that some people don’t like the use of a nuclear power plant as a measuring stick. So we can substitute wind energy as a measuring stick. Net-zero carbon dioxide by 2050 would require the deployment of ~1500 wind turbines (2.5 MW) over ~300 square miles, every day starting tomorrow and continuing to 2050.” ~ Roger Pielke

              https://peakprosperity.com/getting-real-about-green-energy/

              The article is almost 3 years old. How’s progress? Who’s stoppin’ ya?

              Is Roger Pielke also suggesting, but not explicitly arguing, that fossil fuels are the only thing that will work, and there’s just no point to even trying to transition to other energy sources? Legit question, I’m curious to know how you perceive what others are expressing. I feel that you lack an understanding of the distinction between someone explaining something and someone justifying something; that is to say, Nick, I’m not justifying it, I’m explaining it. A distinction that is perhaps lost on you.

              “If you run into an asshole in the morning, don’t worry about it, you ran into an asshole. If you run into assholes all day, you’re the asshole.”

            5. Survivalist,

              Wow. You’ve managed to thoroughly distract from the original conversation. It looks like we’ll never finish it.

              I’m not surprised, really. I’ve tried to have this conversation before, and not gotten very far. But this time we seemed to be making a bit of progress: Nate’s presentation was a starting point for exploring basic assumptions. Now, this conversation seems to be getting lost as well.

              Too bad.

            7. Nick- Hi.
              you’ve been trying to get people to agree to some premise for a long time [that fossil fuels can be replaced], and people don’t seem to want to bite.
              Why don’t you just move on to your followup point.

              btw- I’ll reaffirm my longstanding response. Yes fossil can be partially replaced… in fact most of the light transport energy can be replaced within about 3 decades. It will have to be- no choice on that.
              Other uses like petrochemical feedstock- no luck at any kind of scale worth talking about.

            8. If “people” include me then I’m afraid he’s been wasting his time. I’ve had him on X-out pretty much since the facility became available and try to make sure he stays there. I have better things to do than read his puerile, binary, blinkered and uninformed opinions. (Although, of course, he may have grown up over the past few years, but I’m not going to bother to find out.)

            9. Like most of these “You have to have fossil fuels” arguments, Peak Prosperity’s are based on raw energy calculations, ignoring how insanely inefficient fossil fuel consumption is.

              The error starts here right at the beginning of what he calls the “math” section: “We start by converting the three main fossil fuels – coal, oil and natural gas – into a common unit: the “millions of tons of oil equivalent” or Mtoe.”

              Also that’s an engineering calculation. He doesn’t seem to actually know what math is, but that’s another story.

              From there he starts adding up how much stuff we burn, ignoring how much energy we use. As a result everything he says is completely wrong.

              For example cars and trucks use about 85% of the fuel they consume heating up the radiator. A car is a heater on wheels that generates a little mechanical energy as a side show. We don’t NEED to do that. We will not suffer if that stupidity stops.

              We don’t need to heat our homes either. Insulation works fine. In fact most households should be able to be net exporters of energy.

            10. Hickory- “you’ve been trying to get people to agree to some premise for a long time [that fossil fuels can be replaced]”

              Hickory, I’m disappointed with you to post this. I had more respect for you than to pull yourself down to the level of SURVIVALIST. Nick never tried to get George to “agree” to anything. He ask George to clarify his statement to start an educated conversation. George ignored him. Then childishly belittled Nick with this- “I have better things to do than read his puerile, binary, blinkered and uninformed opinions. (Although, of course, he may have grown up over the past few years, but I’m not going to bother to find out.)”

              Nick has been more informed about the transformation to EV’s here at POB for the last 5 to 7 years than yourself and most likely anyone else. Only to take abuse from the short sighted fossil fuel cult like doomers . The truth is by 2035 America’s new lightweight transportation will all be all EV’s and by 2050 EV’s in America will replace 90% of todays 8.7 million barrels per day of gasoline supplied. You tell me who’s head is in the sand.

              George’s personal decision to isolate himself from the technical advances other than oil is only an avenue to ignorance headed his direction.

              Hickory, narcissism is a learned behavior. For example, you could have an ongoing rivalry with a co-worker. This might lead you to make snarky comments around them or exaggerate the praise you received from your boss when they’re around. Maybe you even give them an unfairly poor review at some point. Now tell me, does that sound like Nick or SURVIVALIST ?

              You don’t need to answer, we both know the answer.

            11. Madeline.
              Nick has been trying to get people to agree with his premise (that fossil fuel are not necessary and can be replaced) for a long time.
              To be gentle about it, nobody around here has spoken up to agree.

              Nick and I do agree on a lot, for example the idea that proactive government policy is crucial to ramping up the nations energy transition.
              Yet we have consistently disagreed about the idea that a global transition away from fossil fuels can be accomplished without a severe body blow to civilization.
              I think that a population now on the way to 9 billion has no chance of replacing fossil fuels without severe economic and social disruption, and population decline, to put it gently. Light ground transport is just one facet of the story.
              Nick doesn’t subscribe to the limits to growth story. Its his prerogative, for whatever reason or rationale.

              Regardless, enjoy your disappointment.
              You clearly have missed a lot of conversation here, making your statements thrown around at many people outright ill-informed, and frankly rude.

            12. Nick- “So, here’s the basic question: are you arguing that fossil fuels can’t be replaced?”

              Nick- “So…George…is that what you’re arguing??”

              Hickory, again. Nick didn’t ask George to “agree” to anything. You have a comprehension problem. Like a Trump supporter your ignoring the facts, you are only seeing/hearing what your mind wants to fit your narrative. Your opinion isn’t fact.

              Mankind has always lived on the edge. In 2008 nearly everyone who posted on TOD thought the world was at peak oil and there was no seeable alternative to oil free transportation, as there is today. In 2015 Ron called peak oil, only to be wrong(opinion, not fact). It was 48 years from the United States peak of 1970 to a new peak in 2018(modern technology). Yet, like never before all this peak, peak, peak, every auto manufacturer in the world will be selling EV’s in the next couple of years.

              Hey, Costco has fire extinguishers on sale this month that can help put out your hair. Then after you cool off your new dew, you can drop it off at your buddies next time you drive by. So that he can put his out too.

              If you sleep with the doomers, you will become a doomer.

            13. Madeline, I don’t remember the exact date I called peak oil, but if it was 2015 then I was only three years off! Three years is damn close. Far better than I am sure you ever did. And your little Costco story had nothing to do with the context of the rest of your post. It was just silly.

              And I don’t think you even know what a “doomer” is. You just use the term “doomer’ as a trash word to describe anyone who does not see the world through rose-colored glasses.

            14. Ron, day after day, month after month, year after year, yourself and Dennis run the same shit show over which month or year the world produced a few extra hundred thousand barrels of oil. How convenient now you claim dementia for you pass error. What’s it going to be in a couple of years, Alzheimer’s ?

              Hair on fire Meaning:
              If something sets your hair on fire, it excites you or catches your attention urgently.

              Just because you didn’t understand the Costco analogy. I can assure you Hickory knows who his new little doomer buddy is. Maybe SURVIVALIST can overnight the extinguisher to you after he puts out his fireball.

              Ron, it wouldn’t have hurt for yourself to have shown more respect to Nick also. Something you should think about if he ever returns to POB.

              “You just use the term “doomer’ as a trash word to describe anyone who does not see the world through rose-colored glasses.” That’s just a strawman doomer bullshit character attack. You are an admitted doomer.

              How does it feel when someone makes fun of you ? There is a reason why comments and posters are down here at POB.

            15. Madeline, get a life. I never claimed that I did not predict peak oil in 2015. I know I did claim peak oil sometime around that date but I don’t remember that specific date. I readily admit I made that call and have never denied it. In my post I admitted making that call and stated I was three years off. So you are a fucking liar when you say that I claim memory loss.

              And If 2018 is not the year of maxium yearly average of 82,917,000 bp/s average for the year then I will readily admit it. But as of April 2022 we were 3,388,000 barrels per day below that level and headed lower. It is my firm belief that this yearly average will never be surpassed

              So if you do not believe that will be peak oil then give us your prediction. You critize my 2018 call but you are too much of a coward to give us your own call as to when peak oil happened or will happen. If you do not believe my 2018 call then it behooves you to explain why not and give us your date.

              As to Nick I haven’t a clue as to what you are talking about. Anyway I was never the only one who questioned his constant cornucopia predictions.

            16. Unfortunately Madeline is having a really bad year,
              and isn’t working very hard to shield other people from the internal torment.
              So regretfully I’ll deploy the ignore button.

            17. “get a life”

              I’m not the one repeating “day after day, month after month, year after year” the same thing like an Alzheimer patient.

              Your projecting your own short comings. I’m going to spend my afternoon at the beach with the waves and guys & gals. Enjoying the short time I have on this plant.

              “working very hard to shield other people from the internal torment”

              Hickory, what a waste of your time. “get a life”

            18. Madeline, Alzheimer’s patients cannot remember anything and cannot possibly repeat anything. I made my 2018 peak oil estimate over three years ago! And of course, I have repeated that prediction several times in the last three and one-half years. Just what the hell would you expect me to do, change it?

              Good god, you do not even know how to conduct an intelligent conversation.

            19. Ron- “Alzheimer’s patients cannot remember anything and cannot possibly repeat anything.”

              “A person with Alzheimer’s may do or say something over and over — like repeating a word, question or activity — or undo something that has just been finished. In most cases, he or she is probably looking for comfort, security and familiarity.”

              https://www.alz.org/help-support/caregiving/stages-behaviors/repetition#:~:text=A person with Alzheimer’s may,for comfort, security and familiarity.

              “The symptoms of Alzheimer’s disease worsen over time, although the rate at which the disease progresses varies. On average, a person with Alzheimer’s lives four to eight years after diagnosis, but can live as long as 20 years, depending on other factors. Changes in the brain related to Alzheimer’s begin years before any signs of the disease. This time period, which can last for years, is referred to as preclinical Alzheimer’s disease.

              The stages below provide an overall idea of how abilities change once symptoms appear and should only be used as a general guide. (Dementia is a general term to describe the symptoms of mental decline that accompany Alzheimer’s and other brain diseases.)

              The stages are separated into three categories: mild Alzheimer’s disease, moderate Alzheimer’s disease and severe Alzheimer’s disease. Be aware that it may be difficult to place a person with Alzheimer’s in a specific stage as stages may overlap.”

              Ron, click on the links, you could learn something. In stead of displaying your lack of knowledge. It’s not like some day, month or year all of a sudden you wake up one morning and “cannot remember anything and cannot possibly repeat anything.”

              https://www.alz.org/alzheimers-dementia/stages

              Dickory, I had a wonderful afternoon body surfing. How many people did you save “from the internal torment” today?

              https://www.shutterstock.com/search/nice-day-on-the-beach

  8. I may have missed it if this was posted here last week. Link below to a study from a group at University of Cambridge on “catastrophic climate change scenarios” published in PNAS:

    https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2108146119

    Abstract
    Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies’ vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence—together with other global dangers—be usefully synthesized into an “integrated catastrophe assessment”? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.

  9. Anomalous warmth across North Pacific, where there’s a blob of 5-6C (9-10F!) SST anomalies. Also, recent emergence of unusually warm near-shore SST along California coast.
    The Kara Sea, the warmed up bit between Mezhdusharsky/Severny Island & the mainland, and the Laptev/East Siberian Sea also have eye catching warmth anamolaies.
    https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#sstanom

    The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00498-3

    It’s nice that we’ve got so much more info and open source intelligence at our fingertips these days, more than I ever could have imagined in the 80’s.

    1. Agree that it is great to have more information. One of the issues is that we all tend to focus on outliers and extremes rather than trends, which are much less sexy. That opens up avenues of attack for GW deniers, and ends up just hardening viewpoints and wasting (emotional) energy.
      rgds
      WP

  10. It’s worse than we thought!

    ARCTIC WARMING FOUR TIMES FASTER THAN REST OF EARTH

    “The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the rest of the planet over the last 40 years, according to research published Thursday that suggests climate models are underestimating the rate of polar heating.”

    https://phys.org/news/2022-08-arctic-faster-rest-earth.html

  11. Oil is dead you say. Well, not in Alberta apparently.

    ALBERTA OIL PRODUCTION SET NEW RECORD IN FIRST HALF OF 2022

    “Alberta oil production set a new record in the first half of 2022, according to a report by ATB Economics. Daily production hit 3.6 million barrels a day between January and June — up from 3.5 million barrels in the first half of 2021. A decade ago, average production was roughly 2.3 million barrels a day, the report said.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/alberta-oil-production-set-new-record-in-first-half-of-2022/ar-AA10x2XI?fromMaestro=true

    1. One can only hope. To me the important question is Why? Why would that fool want all of those documents? Some of which he tore up and had to be taped back together.
      All of the potential answers are scary:
      1. He just took everything that wasn’t bolted down.
      2. He thought he could sell them.
      3. He thought it would cause a problem for Biden.
      4. He really believed he was still president and might need to read them.

      That last one is just silly. He didn’t read anything when he was president.

  14. “Climate risks dwarf Europe’s energy crisis”, space chief warns-

    “The head of the European Space Agency (ESA) has warned economic damage from heatwaves and drought could dwarf Europe’s energy crisis as he called for urgent action to tackle climate change. Director General Josef Aschbacher told Reuters successive heatwaves along with wildfires, shrinking rivers and rising land temperatures as measured from space left no doubt about the toll on agriculture and other industries from climate change. “Today, we are very concerned about the energy crisis, and rightly so. But this crisis is very small compared to the impact of climate change, which is of a much bigger magnitude and really has to be tackled extremely fast,”

  15. What is loss and damage?
    “Explaining the meaning of loss and damage, its role in international climate negotiations, and which countries are suffering the worst effects.”
    https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/08/what-loss-and-damage

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_justice

    I wonder if the Lovelock types would consider it part of Gaia’s Revenge if all those suffering the most loss and damage (L&D) went on a bit of a rampage due to perceptions of injustice secondary to climate change impacts?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Revenge_of_Gaia

  16. Above, Roger Pielke’s maths assumes all fossil fuel kWh need replacing with renewable kWh. Not so. He ignores the 4x greater efficiency of EVs v ICE. Also 40% of sea transport is of fossil fuels, fuelled by fossil fuels. Also heat pumps v resistance heating.

    But let’s ignore these efficiency gains for the time being…

    >> During the first third of 2022, renewable energy sources accounted for 13.8% of total US energy production. Renewable energy output for the first four months of 2022 was 14.0% higher than for the same period in 2021.
    <<
    [edited for brevity]
    https://bit.ly/3bUCLXi

    So, if RE continues growing at 14% per year, then in 16 years time (2038) US energy production will be 100% renewable.

    1. 14% a year for 16 years, good to know! Bears watching.

      I feel that if we expect to drive the EVs anywhere, and power our appliances, we need to get busy building those 1500 wind turbines over ~300 square miles, every day starting 3 years ago and continuing to 2050; or, maybe just 750 wind turbines over 150 square miles everyday if he’s off by 1/2, or even better news, 500 wind turbines over 100 square miles everyday; because things aren’t likely as bad as Roger had thought. Still though, got some catching up to do since the analysis was written in 2019. Just had a thought, are there any supply side constraints, like neodymium magnets?

      Neodymium is The Heart of Wind Turbines
      https://www.stanfordmagnets.com/neodymium-is-the-heart-of-wind-turbines.html

      Fears Over the Supply of Neodymium Magnets for Wind Turbines
      https://www.goudsmit.co.uk/fears-over-the-supply-of-neodymium-magnets-for-wind-turbines/

      Magnets, magnets, magnets: we’ll need lots of them for a green economy
      https://physicsworld.com/a/magnets-magnets-magnets-well-need-lots-of-them-for-a-green-economy/

      Adamas Intelligence forecasts global demand for NdFeB magnets to increase at CAGR of 8.6% through 2035; shortages of alloys, powders, REE expected
      https://www.greencarcongress.com/2022/04/20220420-adamas.html

      Post-2030: Unfathomable Rare Earth Demand Growth Awaits
      https://www.adamasintel.com/unfathomable-rare-earth-demand-growth/

      Has anyone done a comprehensive feasibility study that is thinking a few steps ahead?

      1. Or you could just start in 2010 and build 400 nuclear power plants.

        But, yes. It will take a lot of generating capacity in various forms to replace some of the energy we waste today from fossil solar.
        I don’t think that globally a complete replacement job will get accomplished.
        But some places will get a lot more of it done than others.
        Pick your spot and get busy. I think I might have seen you from the road when I was driving through the upper Snake Valley last month.

      2. S, you and George may be right about the problems of scaling RE globally. And yet locally…
        – US electricity was 20% RE in April 2022
        – Costa Rica was 98% RE electricity in 2021
        – Portugal was 59% RE electricity in 2021

        1. John. That is a very good point.
          Many regions will do quite well, and others will suffer severely.
          In part that depends on geography (hydroelectric capability for example), in part it depends on the level of country prosperity that allows deployment of things like heat pumps, nuc plants, electric infrastructure, EV’s,
          and in big part it depends on effective/proactive decision making and alteration in collective economic behavior.

          Overall, I lean hard with the camp that sees big energy shortage on the near horizon.
          The world can and will learn to live with less of it.
          The hard and chaotic way of learning.

          1. “Overall, I lean hard with the camp that sees big energy shortage on the near horizon.
            The world can and will learn to live with less of it.
            The hard and chaotic way of learning.”

            Dead on.
            I’m hoping that we don’t wind up mostly dead because a hot energy war morphs into WWIII.

  18. The number of turbines installed in the U.S. each year varies based on a number of factors, but on average 3,000 turbines have been built in the U.S. each year since 2005.
    https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-many-wind-turbines-are-installed-us-each-year

    Note: 3000 per year (that’s less than 10 a day) x 17 years is 51,000.

    U.S. added less new wind power in 2021 than the previous year — here’s why
    “New wind installations fell in 2021 as the industry faced a series of challenges, including supply chain headwinds, logistics logjams and international trade barriers, according to new analysis from S&P Global Market Intelligence.”
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/07/us-added-less-new-wind-power-in-2021-than-the-previous-year-why.html

    USWTDB has 72,130 wind turbines with a total rated capacity of 134,362 MW
    https://eerscmap.usgs.gov/uswtdb/viewer/#3/37.25/-96.25

    “The United States Wind Turbine Database (USWTDB) provides the locations of land-based and offshore wind turbines in the United States, corresponding wind project information, and turbine technical specifications.”
    https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=cb89c230f4d44163abd62eb18b0b94dd

    Note: 72,130 minus 51,000 equals 21,130. That is perhaps a rough indication that 29% of the fleet is at least 18 years old.

    Wind Turbine Blades Don’t Have To End Up In Landfills
    “In terms of durability, wind turbines last an average of about 25 years.”
    https://blog.ucsusa.org/james-gignac/wind-turbine-blades-recycling/

    For the sake of argument let’s assume we need to replace 21,000 wind turbines over the next 7 years to maintain the fleet at its current size; that’s, coincidentally, 3000 a year.

    Red Queen strikes again.

  19. I thought we can all agree that all renewables are simply derivatives of oil/gas? Did someone invent renewable transportation for all products/goods? If anyone here truly believes the renewable fairytales, please do yourself a huge favor, go to the restroom, look in the mirror and smack yourself as hard as possible, then say: “wake the f- up!”. You’ll thank me later…

    2. Is it possible for one to be in opposition of something happening in the future that one doesn’t actually believe is gonna happen in the future? There would seem to be an inherent tension if one did.

      I feel that one who interprets a persons disbelief OF a possible future scenario occurring as that persons opposition TO that possible future scenario occurring is some kinda fanatic.

      “Oh, you don’t believe I’m correct about the future? Seriously? I don’t get it! Why do you thwart me and attempt to prevent it?”

      Cue the histrionics.

      1. I feel that anyone who interprets disbelief OF an idea as opposition TO an idea is some kinda fanatic.

        Survivalist, I think you should rethink that statement. It makes no sense whatsoever.

        1. I interpret it this way:

          The christian apocalypse is not going to happen, which is to say I don’t believe in it; or, as Surv. says, I disbelieve that possible future scenario. (I would call it an “impossible future scenario.”)

          Therefore, I am not “opposed” to the idea of a christian apocalypse because it’s pointless to oppose something happening that you don’t believe will happen.

          What is there to oppose about the christian apocalypse? It ain’t gonna happen!

          The m-fing christians can believe it all they want. I don’t have to oppose their idea as it’s impossible.

          I might oppose them and their rhetoric and their silly beliefs, tho.

          On the other hand, I don’t disbelieve in the possibility of fascism rising in America, and I think it’s important to oppose it at every turn.

          Oppose what are real, horrifying possibilities, not silly fantasies.

          1. Mike, I agree with your example however, it is not remotely related to Survivilist’s reply to Kengeo. Kengeo’s point was, “if you think renewables will completely replace fossil fuels, then you need to wake up and smell the coffee”.

            I agree with him completely. I am all for renewables. I am hopeful they will save civilization. However, I know, because fossil fuels are finite, they will keep declining until they are all gone. And I call myself using common sense when I logically reason that they will never replace the load fossil fuels are carrying. Almost everything in my home is made either partially or completely from fossil fuels, from the shoes on my feet to the chair I am sitting in, to the pill bottle sitting here to the computer I am using to ….. Well, you get the idea.

            One day we will survive completely on renewables. But when that day comes the population of the world will be a fraction of what it is today. And that population will enjoy only a fraction of the luxuries we enjoy today. However, if you think renewables will keep the world and 8 billion people enjoying business as usual, then you need to take Kengeo’s advice and “do yourself a huge favor, go to the restroom, look in the mirror and smack yourself as hard as possible, then say: “wake the fuck up!”.

            1. Ron
              “if you think renewables will completely replace fossil fuels, then you need to wake up and smell the coffee”.

              I don’t think anyone who comes around here is naive or ill-informed enough to think that.
              Except perhaps Nick…
              he hopes it.

              But I wouldn’t belabor the point- its a silly and distracting topic of discussion.
              All the other stuff between here right now and that extreme supposition is worthy of discussion. And KenGeo can find all kinds of other things to slap himself in front of the mirror about. Hey, whatever turns you on.

            2. Sorry if my quip was misinterpreted…
              Also sorry I missed this heated debate…was too busy getting “I heart renewables” tattooed on my a$$…but damn it’s sore now!

            4. I feel like there are a number of bots here, some of the responses just seem way too far off, can we get a captcha or some other verification? Some patterns are emerging, won’t name names…

          2. Mike, just one more point. A painless transition to a world without fossil fuels is has about the same chance of happening as your Christian Apocalypse. Both are beliefs held only by fanatics.

            By painless I mean without an enermous decline of the human population.

            1. Of course I agree, or I wouldn’t be commenting here! I was trying to make sense of Survivalist’s comment, but perhaps I misread.

            2. I think I realize what he was trying to say, he just didn’t make that clear. And I think he was mistaken. Kengeo was not saying he, or anyone else for that matter, was opposed to renewables. He was saying that the idea that renewables will completely replace fossil fuels is absurd. I do not see any fanatical belief there.

          3. Mike, I’m in complete agreement with you. Btw, my husband and I will be in your next of the woods (Brunswick) next month. Going to MOFGA common ground country fair.

          4. Cheers Mike. Quite right; whilst blasphemy is a victimless crime, it is still right to oppose religious dogma guiding public policy. Thanks for that.

            1. Blasphemy may be a victimless crime but there certainly are crimeless victims. Just ask Salman Rushdie.

        2. My apologies for poor writing. No one should have to bear it. This is the pattern I detect;

          1/ Whilst Nick’s predictions seem plausible and perhaps possible, one here tells Nick that they do not believe those forecast are likely to play out due to various extenuating circumstances; one assigns a low probability to what Nick asserts is a certainty.

          2/ Nick then accuses that person of moral weakness, of opposing renewables, of obstructing progress, and of shilling for big oil. Perhaps Alim will label them a Russian fossil fuel troll for good measure.

          Nick interprets disbelief of a rosy forecast as an agenda of opposition to rosy future.

          Here Nick accuses Jason Bradford of pushing fossil fuel talking points.
          http://peakoilbarrel.com/usa-oil-production/#comment-686913

          Here Nick accuses Nate Hagens of pushing fossil fuel talking points.
          https://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-october-2020-production-data/#comment-711028

          Nick seems to make this accusation because data points that Nick doesn’t want emphasized are pejoratively categorized, without reference, as “fossil fuel talking points”, as if it is that data points have a moral disposition, and because Nate & Jason have a different opinion in terms of future predictions and projections.

          Narcissists don’t learn from their mistakes because they don’t think they make any, study shows
          https://today.oregonstate.edu/news/narcissists-don’t-learn-their-mistakes-because-they-don’t-think-they-make-any-study-shows

          1. Well put, but I doubt it is narcissism,
            rather it may be more of a normal fear of a chaotic decline in civil society and supply of basics.
            And that fear leads to denial.
            Same reason that people try to ignore peak oil, or ignore global warming from fossil fuels-
            Fear of disruption.
            And so people exhibit mental gymnastics to avoid a reality.
            Its often not a disorder. Its a protective mechanism.

            2. Quite right Hick. Denial is certainly a self-sealing belief system. Perhaps engagement in a self sealing belief system is something one can self monitor for.

              Watch Out for Self-Sealing Belief Systems
              https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/watch-out-for-self-sealing-belief-27360/

              The Seven Signs That You’re in a Cult
              #1 Opposing critical thinking
              https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2014/06/the-seven-signs-youre-in-a-cult/361400/

              “The fundamentalist version of truth has a self-sealing insularity: it is not troubled by specifics of context, history, or contrary evidence. … The idea of a strongly held truth, of fidelity to a fundamental tenet of faith authorizing true believers to ignore epistemic [evidential] challenges, is undoubtedly a characteristic of religious fundamentalism.” ~ Christian O. Lundberg

            3. “Can America’s Drastic Decline be Reversed?”

              Hell no.

              Close the barn door if you must. It won’t matter.

            4. “Can America’s Drastic Decline be Reversed?”

              Hell no.

              Well, perhaps not. But if we could vote every ignorant Trumpite out of office it would sure help.

              That being said, the rest of the world is far worse off than America. Many people in Pakistan are starving because of the total collapse of their economy. Pakistan is almost in that condition. Russia, because of its ignorant dictator, is in serious trouble. Even China is now in serious trouble. Millions are rioting because banks have frozen their accounts. And don’t even mention Sub-Sahara Africa.

              Most nations of the world would just love to be in America’s place right now.

            5. When Trump is arrested, the shooting starts.

              When the Permian crashes, the scramble begins.

              When the Colorado river drops below power generation capacity, the lights go out.

              When the crops fail, famine comes a-knocking.

              When all happen in succession, all bets are off.

            6. “When Trump is arrested, the shooting starts.”

              as in Nicolae Ceaușescu shooting?
              I think Rykers would be sufficient.

          2. SURVIVALIST —

            At best Nick is a cornucopian but probably manipulative moron is a better description. I keep him x’d out to avoid being exposed to his nonsense.

  20. Sad but true?

    COAL GIANTS ARE MAKING MEGA PROFITS

    The Chinese government has tasked its industry with boosting production capacity by 300 million tons this year, and the nation’s top state-owned producer said it would boost development investment by more than half on the back of record profits. Coal India is also likely to pour a large chunk of its earnings back into developing new mines, under government pressure to do more to keep pace with demand from power plants and heavy industry.

    And, it’s not just Asia. US producers are also reaping bumper profits, and the biggest miners Arch Resources Inc. and Peabody Energy Corp. say demand is so strong at European power plants that some customers are buying the high-quality fuel typically used to make steel to generate electricity instead.

    https://ca.news.yahoo.com/feeding-world-coal-addiction-more-070040701.html

  21. A couple good articles demonstrating ev energy efficiency vs ice, and charging cost ev vs tank filling with gas-

    https://www.motortrend.com/news/evs-more-efficient-than-internal-combustion-engines/
    https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/08/electrifying-transportation-reduces-emissions-and-saves-massive-amounts-of-energy/
    https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/06/driving-with-electricity-is-much-cheaper-than-with-gasoline/

    as of June 2022
    “How does the cost of driving an EV compare to driving a gasoline-powered car? [in the USA]
    The short answer is that it costs only $1.41 per “gallon” to drive an EV. That’s a 70% discount compared with gasoline.”

  22. Low Rhine water level to hit output at two German coal plants
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/low-rhine-water-level-hit-output-staudinger-5-coal-plant-2022-08-04/

    Europe’s drought is a problem for coal, nuclear, and hydro plants—but the economic impact goes way beyond energy
    https://fortune.com/2022/08/11/europe-drought-rivers-dry-energy-crisis/amp/

    I’m not yet too familiar with the location of the various coal, nuclear and hydro plants along the rivers in Europe. Has anyone a short list of the potential problem areas? Online literature review in English seems limited, much to my embarrassment.

  24. Article dates September 2021
    Solar Could Provide 40% Of U.S. Power By 2035, Report Says—While Not Acting Could Cost Trillions
    “For solar to provide 40% of power, the U.S. would need to add twice as much solar capacity as last year—which was a record—until 2025, and then four times as much between 2025 and 2030.”
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/graisondangor/2021/09/08/solar-energy-could-power-40-of-us-by-2035-report-says/amp/

    It seems solar is a bit more difficult to track and monitor than giant wind turbines. USWTDB is quite good for that. I wish something similar existed for solar.

    1. For all US Power plants (utility scale?) this interactive map up through 2020 is very cool. You can select all, or just solar for example. And click on each individual station to get its capacity and power output.
      https://physics.weber.edu/schroeder/energy/PowerPlantsMap.html

      Here is another great mapping tool- focused on carbon intensity of power output-
      https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/US-CAL-CISO

      And then maybe this is the one you really want-
      https://emp.lbl.gov/technology-trends

  25. IRIMO (Iran Meteorological Organization) just verified and officialized the 53.6C recorded at Shush on 9 August. This would be the highest temperature ever recorded in Asia in August and one of the highest worldwide in history.

    A bit warm, don’t you think comrades?

    1. The source of the River Thames is a puddle. The River’s new start is about 10 miles down stream.

  26. https://www.ajc.com/news/climate-bill-could-be-a-game-changer-for-georgia-solar-heres-why/CWQEBM6YTFCYBEVI5IF3SOH4G4/

    “One of the many challenges the legislation seeks to address is the reliance of the global solar supply chain on China. The country holds more than an 80% share in all of the various materials needed to build solar panels, according to recent analysis by the International Energy Agency.”

    Allowing China to get us by the balls and the throat this way is absolutely one of the dumbest things EVER.

    Here’s my question of the day.

    Thanks in advance!

    Does anybody have a link to a reasonably even handed article or two or three about the bill Biden is expected to sign, or has maybe signed already? Links that are NOT behind paywalls?

    I will also be glad to read pro and con articles so long as they’re about numbers rather than rhetoric.

    This

    1. FWIW
      New evidence shows massive and rapid expansion of illicit rare earths industry in Myanmar – “China has effectively offshored this toxic industry to Myanmar over the past few years, with terrible consequences for local communities and the environment”
      “Myanmar has seen a rapid expansion of illegal mining of heavy rare earth minerals, used in green energy technologies, smartphones and home electronics, with the industry fuelling human rights abuses, environmental destruction and funding local militias linked to the brutal military regime, our new investigation reveals today.”
      https://desdemonadespair.net/2022/08/new-evidence-shows-massive-and-rapid-expansion-of-illicit-rare-earths-industry-in-myanmar-china-has-effectively-offshored-this-toxic-industry-to-myanmar-over-the-past-few-years-wit.html

      1. Solar panels don’t use rare earths. Neither do wind turbines. This bullshit lie doesn’t get truer through repetition.

        2. There are 17 REEs in the periodic table.
          The rare earth elements most commonly used in the wind industry are neodymium and dysprosium.

          Using Rare Metals in Solar Panels
          “Experts have found that the rare metals required to build solar panels, such as indium and tellurium, are not in sufficient supply to keep up with demand”
          https://www.azocleantech.com/amp/article.aspx?ArticleID=932

          Copper indium gallium selenide solar cells
          https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copper_indium_gallium_selenide_solar_cells

          Solar powers demand for rare tellurium
          https://www.miningnewsnorth.com/story/2021/09/16/critical-minerals-alliances/solar-powers-demand-for-rare-tellurium/6987.html?m=true

          Cadmium telluride photovoltaics
          https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cadmium_telluride_photovoltaics

          Rare Earths in EVs: Problems, Solutions and What Is Actually Happening
          “Electric motors literally drive EVs, but many designs utilize kilograms of magnetic materials. These magnets rely heavily on rare-earth materials like neodymium and dysprosium, which are expensive, produce lots of waste and have various mining concerns.”
          https://www.idtechex.com/en/research-article/rare-earths-in-evs-problems-solutions-and-what-is-actually-happening/25071

          1. Rare earths elements are not rare.
            But it is a huge challenge to collect decent grade samples and then separate , concentrate and purify them.
            Not a simple, or environmentally friendly process.
            Radiation too.
            Nonetheless the industrial effort will be robust as humanity pushes hard to avoid standstill, cold, heat and starvation.

        3. There are two types of wind turbine design. One uses a gearbox between the blades and the generator and is heavier, requires more base metals and is maintenance intensive. The other has no gear box but needs plenty of rare earth elements for the generator, and is by far the preferred, and possibly only workable, option as turbines get larger and for offshore.

          Solar panels don’t use REEs but need lots of highly refined forms of metal, some of which might be considered rare, or at least exotic, and are often highly toxic, which is going to be an increasing issue now, as the first generation of panels reach the end of life and start to be junked.

  27. Conflict, fragility and multilateral climate funds
    “By the end of this decade, up to two-thirds of the world’s extreme poor are expected to live in fragile and conflict-affected states.”
    https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/08/conflict-fragility-and-multilateral-climate-funds

    From what I can tell, European countries like sending their industrial fishing fleets to the west African coast to deplete the fish stocks. But they’re not too keen on unemployed west African fishermen arriving in Europe and looking for work.

    Illegal fishing in the region harms livelihoods and food supplies. Yet some of the most damaging activity is conducted under EU deals
    https://www.ft.com/content/0eb523ca-5d41-11ea-8033-fa40a0d65a98

    In complex systems, cause and effect are often distant in time and space

  30. Rising living costs have triggered violent protests across Sierra Leone. Demonstrators want the president to resign.

    More police officers mobbed to death in Sierra Leone unrest
    https://www.africanews.com/amp/2022/08/11/more-police-officers-mobbed-to-death-in-sierra-leone-unrest/

    South Africa’s army can’t afford parts or petrol for vehicles: report
    https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/616903/south-africas-army-cant-afford-parts-or-petrol-for-vehicles-report/amp/

  31. Putin has signed a decree reestablishing the “Mother Heroine” award that existed in the USSR from 1944 to 1991, awarded to mothers who raised 10 or more children. Recipients will also be awarded 1 million rubles.

    https://tass.com/society/1493923/amp

    1. Estimated RU total fertility is 1.5 per wiki, way below 2.1 replacement.
      They ran out of babies way back, but the real problem now is they are about to run out of adults.

      1. Maybe the Africa and the Indian subcontinent could help them out, with all age groups.

  32. Critical minerals threaten a decades-long trend of cost declines for clean energy technologies ~ May 2022
    “Prices of many minerals and metals that are essential for clean energy technologies have recently soared due to a combination of rising demand, disrupted supply chains and concerns around tightening supply. The prices of lithium and cobalt more than doubled in 2021, and those for copper, nickel and aluminium all rose by around 25% to 40%.
    The price trends have continued into 2022. The price of lithium has increased an astonishing two-and-a-half times since the start of the year. The prices of nickel and aluminium – for which Russia is a key supplier – have also kept rising, driven in part by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For most minerals and metals that are vital to the clean energy transition, the price increases since 2021 exceed by a wide margin the largest annual increases seen in the 2010s.”
    https://www.iea.org/commentaries/critical-minerals-threaten-a-decades-long-trend-of-cost-declines-for-clean-energy-technologies

  33. Tesla needs nickel to dominate the car industry. It just signed a $5 billion deal with the metal’s largest source
    https://fortune.com/2022/08/11/tesla-elon-musk-nickel-indonesia-deal-jokowi-tsingshan/amp/

    NGOs ask Musk to not invest in Indonesia’s nickel industry over environmental worries
    https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/ngos-ask-musk-not-invest-indonesias-nickel-industry-over-environmental-worries-2022-07-25/

    Reserves of nickel worldwide as of 2021, by country
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/273634/nickel-reserves-worldwide-by-country/

    Indonesian tax will shake up the nickel export mix again
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indonesian-tax-will-shake-up-nickel-export-mix-again-2022-08-04/

    Red seas and no fish: Nickel mining takes its toll on Indonesia’s spice islands
    “The waters off the southern coast of Obi Island have turned red due to pollution from the nickel mines and smelters.”
    https://news.mongabay.com/2022/02/red-seas-and-no-fish-nickel-mining-takes-its-toll-on-indonesias-spice-islands/amp/

    https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/progress

  34. SURVIVALIST, thanks for the Atlantic link above on cults and cult-like thinking. Scary stuff. I left the Vineyard church (of which Mike Bickle’s KCF was a part) in 1996. I suspect Bickle’s Dominionist and “last days” theology has had a lot of influence on evangelicals supporting Trump to fight our “immoral and decadent society”, ie the Democrats and the US government…

    1. You’re welcome John. Fascinating topic! I wish you the best. Thanks for sharing a bit of your life story.

  35. As the planet warms.

    CHINA TO RAMP UP COAL SUPPLY FOR POWER GENERATION AMID PROLONGED HEAT WAVES

    “From August 1 to 14, the average daily coal consumption at coal-fired power plants stood at 8.16 million tons in the country, an increase of 15 percent over the same period last year, with 8.49 million tons of coal consumed on August 3, a record high.”

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1273090.shtml

  36. Anybody keeping track of the 8th International Army Games

    Eighth International Army Games to get rolling Aug 13
    https://tass.com/defense/1492957/amp
    International Army Games
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Army_Games

    I’ve been keeping track of the tank biathlon, featuring teams from Russia, Abkhazia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Venezuela, Vietnam, Zimbabwe, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Laos, Mali, Mongolia, Myanmar, Syria, Sudan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and South Ossetia, mostly in T-72B3’s. China brought their own Type-96B’s. This year, Division 1 consists of the 10 strongest participants (Azerbaijan, Venezuela, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Mongolia, Russia and Uzbekistan) , while Division 2 consists of the remaining eleven participants (Abkhazia, Armenia, Zimbabwe, Iran, Laos, Mali, Myanmar, Syria, Sudan, Tajikistan and South Ossetia).

    Spoiler Alert… Russia, Belarus, China and Kyrgyzstan did ok, everybody else kinda sucked. Some got lost.

    1. Seems like a waste of carbon credits…. like so much of everything we do.

      What, no Ukraine?

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