94 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, August 14, 2021”

  1. A wonderful person, a former American missionary, bought land in one of the most depressed regions of the Russian Federation (Siberia, Altai). Became a successful farmer. Created an autonomous electric system. Micro hydroelectric power station + solar panels + gasoline generator + battery. Here: https: // www. youtube.com/watch?v=7OqqQSV-SE4&t=2s

  3. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/08/2020-census-shrinking-counties-voted-trump.html

    I’ve been saying all along that demographics are destiny, and that the future belongs to them there dimrats and libtards, when talking to my redneck neighbors.
    It’s ok to point out the truth to them, but it’s NOT quite ok to make it perfectly obvious you’re not a Jesus freak or trump voter. They’ll quit talking to you.

    But if we don’t keep our eye on the political ball, the trump camp might win one or two last desperate election battles with horrible consequences.

    1. “But if we don’t keep our eye on the political ball, the trump camp might win one or two last desperate election battles with horrible consequences.”

      Yes, and even with ‘eye on the ball’ that dismal outcome is likely I think.
      The machinery of democracy is under the control of trump authoritarians/white supremacists/religious fundamentalists/ and fascist sympathizers in so many states.
      Even though not a majority, in effect they have majority control. Supreme court as the number one example, along with electoral college, state governorship, attorneys general, and legislature control.

      The number one reason that so many people in the US are avoiding vaccination is that they don’t want to give Biden (and science) any appearance of success.
      The second biggest reason is simply false beliefs trumping an understanding of science. A self-imposed culture of mass delusion and ignorance

      1. We are on course to become a third world country. If todays Afghanistan news, the insurection of 1/6, Fox News disinformation campaign, religious cults or minority voter suppression of the majority isn’t enough to convince anyone in America how quickly things can happen. Try watching a few hours of pre world war II documentaries of Germany. Peak oil, transition and EV’s aren’t going to matter. America is already locked and loaded.

        We are on the edge and the rot is within are own borders. To many don’t care, feel helpless, hoping for it to happen or maybe most of all. Don’t believe it will happen here in the states. They will only have themselves to blame.

          1. Be as engaged as you can muster supporting those who stand up for the democratic process, for restrictions on automatic weapon ownership, for voter rights, for criminal justice reform, for restriction on the role of religion in public policy.
            And call out false beliefs wherever you see them.
            For a start.

            1. Hightrekker,

              I think Hickory has answered your question well. I might add to choose your words carefully and with who, because the “it will never happen here folks” will dismiss you as a nut. But, their the ones who need to hear it the most from many sources. 90 percent of them are followers.

        2. I don’t see how the withdrawal from Afghanistan makes America a third world country. It was a stupid idea to go in, and now we’re (sort of) out.

          That America has no clue how to rule the country has been clear since the invasion. At least we have stopped pretending we do.

          1. To many Americans are sleep walking about the risks of democracy and guns. The Afghanistan’s after 20 years of American presents and a year warning seemed to have not prepare for the Taliban. Now it’s to late.

      2. Well said, Hickory.
        It’s an existential battle, in terms of our way of life.

        There’s no doubt in my mind that we’re at risk of losing it, but if we can get thru the next couple of election cycles, I think the risk will decline from red alert to standby status.

        The power of the church is fading fast, although you won’t figure that out from reading the mainstream media unless you do some serious digging.

        That’s one mainstay of the hard core conservative camp.

        And the younger people these days, even the ones that drop out of school barely able to add up a grocery bill, if even that, are gradually coming around to realizing that the Earth is round, orbits the sun, that dinosaurs were real, cigarettes kill, etc…… and that we’re fucking up the environment.

        Shows on tv such as Saturday Night Live, comedians such as Steve Colbert, etc, are getting thru to people whose eyes glaze over at the thought of doing any serious thinking.

        My generation will mostly be gone or in nursing homes in 2032, and today’s middle aged hard core voters didn’t raise five or six or more kids very often. Two or three is more typical and one wasn’t by any means unusual. More of those kids, now in their thirties or forties, went to college than ever before.

        And there’s this. Kipling. From a long poem.

        “When you’re wounded and left on Afghanistan’s plains,
        And the women come out to cut up what remains,
        Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains ”

        The women are coming for the hard core right….. and in their hearts, they know it’s so, which is why they’re so desperate now as to try any possible trick.

        It’s a war of attrition…. and the women are in control of the supply of fresh soldiers, lol.

        I don’t know how long it’s going to take, but barring bad luck/ bad leadership, we’re going to have a government and society pretty much like the ones that dominate in Western Europe today….. maybe in as little as ten to twenty years in terms of national health insurance, high fuel taxes, etc.

        1. OFM,

          I will disagree with that. I think the US is on the route to collapse and disintegration. There is no common purpose, and everything is political. Even medical care, especially medical care.

          You saw how fast Afghanistan fell apart this week? What would happen if a gerrymandered election truly steals the next election and Dump gets back in.

          You’ll never have a national health insurance plan as the private insurance industry has to be broken up first. It’s always about money and power. What would bring the Country together? My God, there isn’t even a consensus on science, GW, or objective reality. There is also too much religion as opposed the examples you give.

          We are in the midst of a federal election. It will last 5 weeks. 5 weeks….then it will be over. I think Trudeau might be Catholic, somewhat, but no one cares about who thinks/believes what here. In the States, if you don’t pray the right way good luck on getting elected. Northern Europe is the same as Canada. No one cares about (as you call) SkyDaddy. I think you call it that.

          regards as always.

          1. Hi Paulo,
            There’s a great deal of hard truth in your comment, and it is entirely possible that you’re right, that the rot is so far advanced that we’re past the point of no return.

            But for what it’s worth, my personal opinion is that the Republicans are whipping a near dead horse, in a manner of speaking.

            I see people every day who used to be fairly obvious about being in line with trump, who now have little or nothing to say in favor of his administration and policies.

            We’ll know one way or another, most likely, which way we’re pointed, in the twenty four elections.

            In the meantime, I’m very grateful to Sky Daddy that so many Republicans are making complete idiots of themselves about such issues as mask mandates in public schools, etc.

            I have no hard figures, but at least half the old people I know know somebody who has died of the virus personally, or have a friend who has lost a family member to the virus.

            Things can go to hell in a handbasket very quickly, no question.
            But things can also change just as fast, sometimes.

            For instance here in Virginia we got rid of our antiquated pot laws within a matter of weeks when the Democrats won control of the state government.

            I’m worried, sure, but I’m hopeful and fairly optimistic that we’ll pull thru.

            Every week or two, before the election comes, we’re going to hear more and more about dirty Republican political tricks due to the federal and state justice departments grinding away on the trump administration.
            And as my good friend and personal attorney says once in a while, it’s true that the wheels of justice grind slowly, but they also grind exceeding fine.

            The kernel of the problem is the old white folks voting block, my generation for the most part. Hardly a month goes by that I don’t hear about a relative, friend or former coworker exiting this old vale of tears.

            Hopefully enough young people will decide to vote, and enough old geezers of my sort will decide to stay home or simply die of old age, for the Democrats to hold onto the Presidency and one or the other and maybe even both houses of Congress.

          2. I’m going to have to weigh in with Paulo on this point OFM.
            If the majority perceives a presidential election stolen, this country will undergo severe chaos and fragmentation.
            It didn’t quite get there this time since the vast majority of people know that the claims of election fraud were ludicrous and patently false, and even McConnell acknowledged the truth in the brief moment.
            But if the election results are truly questionable we are in deep deep trouble.
            And events could happen very fast, similar to the speed at which the Taliban stepped back into power.
            The glue holding this country together is extremely weak.
            This transition period you have correctly flagged is a perilous one.

            1. If the majority perceives a presidential election stolen, this country will undergo severe chaos and fragmentation.

              Hickory, that is extremely unlikely. Each state has its own election system. They are all separated and are not connected to the internet. So there cannot possibly be a nationwide conspiracy to fix the election.

            2. I hope that I am wrong. Usually I just keep my mouth shut. 1/2 my relatives live in the US, particularly my much loved sister and her three grown children. When we talk, weekly, I just listen unless she is the one to bring up Trump or Covid. Should I suggest her kids get out? I have wondered for 2 years if this is a looming 1933 Germany situation?

              I don’t think it is. Yet.

              I do worry about the violence and dysfunction.

              It isn’t the people. It falls on the politicians and media who exploit regular citizens for power/money which further rots and poisons….paid for by corporations. Plus, so much is hidden by the ‘exceptionalism’ meme. It’s almost a religion, itself. Regardless, my opinion is pretty much meaningless. My wife and I do feel sadness, though. We used to visit my sister yearly on our way to the Oregon beaches. We loved driving through the north Cascades on our way back, and both areas have a logging history which makes us feel like home. But two years ago, just prior to Covid, we vowed to never return. We drove down to visit my sister below Bellingham, then cut across the bible belt around Linden to head back up through the BC interior and on to the coast. The pro military bumper stickers, gun racks, Trump lawn signs, and Jesus signage was just too much. We felt like strangers in a land we certainly did not belong and when I mentioned to my wife that most likely everyone we saw with the stickers would likely be packing a handgun, that was it. At the border we told the young lady how glad we felt to return and she simply said, “Welcome home”.

              And that’s that, never to return. I drive a restored ’81 Westfalia when we travel…so we have our own digs. My joke is that, “They hunt people like us”. Which is BS, I know….but most of my friends (with a few exceptions) have avoided the US for many years, now. Some ensure their flights won’t even stop on their way south and warm.

              I would like to add, having read OFM’s comments, and Ron’s etc from back in the OIl Drum days, I have found the Peak Oil crowd to be welcoming, sober, and clear headed critical thinkers. I also enjoy the site moderation. 🙂

              As the old toast goes, “Here’s to better days”.

            3. Ron, in the last election all it would have taken is one or two state legislatures to have overruled the popular vote (for whatever reason they choose). Laws are now being enacted to make that easier in a number of states. Arizona and Georgia for example.
              This is very dangerous stuff, and clearly could affect the national outcome.
              Secondly, the supreme court could rule on the election in a way that would change the outcome. You remember the Bush-Gore outcome was supreme court decided.

              https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/state-legislatures-start-2021-focus-election-procedures/story?id=74879533
              https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2021/07/28/republican-legislators-curb-authority-of-county-state-election-officials
              https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/25/politics/republican-legislation-elections-powers/index.html

              Watch out!

      3. Hickory,

        With such a situation the only thing to take away is that as per Darwin, they will not survive to make more.

        1. America has always been a deeply divided country. Look at 1960s, the 1930s before that and the 1890s, the Civil War, North vs South, etc etc. The revolution happened and it was a bunch of drunks with don’t tread on me flags storming the capital a few months back. A nonevent. Explain to me how exactly a civil war or a geographical division would occur?

          The fact is that the right are chickenshits. That’s why you buy guns. Because you’re afraid.

          1. I hope you are correct Stephen. I know that a deeply divided nation is nothing new, but I have never seen the populace so eager to embrace nationalism/fascism/white supremacy before, and the rapid spread of false narrative is like fire in dry grass.

            I have no idea how a division would work. If there was a clear geographical solution I think it would already be in full effect. The lack of a straightforward solution makes the risk of a messy one more likely. Small events can get large quick. One knee on the neck of one man is an example of that.

          2. The revolution happened and it was a bunch of drunks with don’t tread on me flags storming the capital a few months back.

            Let’s not put down drunks by comparing them to those idiots.
            (sarc)

  5. Some interesting commentary on AR6: https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-ipccs-working-group-i-contribution-to-the-sixth-assessment-report/

    In a nutshell: immediate cessation of carbon production needed (lol, no one is building out a new energy infrastructure harmlessly), and the models are lagging what we’re actually experiencing (so I guess the science ISN’T settled… just not the way the deniers would want).

    Speaking of carbon emissions, looks like Germany has some issues. This is the supposed poster child for weaning us off fossil fuels, and now look at it. And that’s with some of the most expensive energy bills in the world.

    1. KLEIBER —

      “…immediate cessation of carbon production needed…” Doesn’t seem likely.

      GLOBAL OIL & GAS PIPELINE PROJECTS IN 2021 & BEYOND

      “The U. S. once again, leads the world with 25 crude oil and 52 natural gas projects proposed or under construction. Globally, operators plan to develop 14,235 miles of pipeline by the end of 2021, with natural gas projects accounting for 93 per cent of that total. The Asia-Pacific region accounts for more than 46 per cent of forecasted construction of major oil and gas transmission pipeline projects. Due to the global pandemic, planned construction of projects worldwide dropped by 17 per cent in 2021 – almost all of those being in the U.S. and other Western democratic countries. Despite the effects of COVID-19 on global energy markets, historical trends suggest that demand for oil and gas will eventually return back to pre-pandemic highs, as it has after every recession in the past. The world will need oil and gas for decades to come, and the reality is that pipelines are the safest way of transporting these commodities.”

      https://www.canadaaction.ca/projected-oil-gas-pipelines-worldwide-2021-beyond

    2. Kleiber —

      About Germany, expensive energy is a feature, not a bug. The Greens wanted prices high to discourage waste. That is why there is an electricity tax on all electricity. It is independent of the energy source.
      Coal consumption has fallen drastically since carbon prices went up in the EU. Another problem is oil consumption, which is very slowly being addressed.

      1. It’s always been my view that high prices were the better route too, though it seems to be putting a massive strain on discretionary spending in the UK.

        But as we know, a car like a new EV getting 100 MPG is less likely to sit idle and be used only when needed than an ICE with 15 MPG. If we want to change the happy motoring paradigm, efficiency ironically has contrary effects.

        Doug: Figured. The idea that we were going to stop even prospecting for new deposits, let alone shutter current ones and reduce usage, was pie in the sky.

      2. You do realize that almost all of the price increases (relative to wholesale prices) are due to policies enacted by usually conservative-led governments?

        Electricity prices in Germany are subject to federal laws (with the small exception of grid costs which vary regionally) and the Greens have been part of a federal government – as a minority partner – for 7 of 72 years that (West-)Germany has existed. And that is now more than 15 years in the past.

        Don’t give the Green party credit where non is due.

        1. You have to understand the German parlamentic system for this.

          They are in coalitions in many federal lands, and these form a council which has to confirm several federal laws.

          And so there have to be agreements on many things. The other thing is the big eco propaganda in TV and newspapers. Any party getting in the eco focus will lose percentage to the green.

          We don’t have the winner takes it all as in the USA – every % of votes counts.

          So the greens have started this, but the others haven’t had enough courage to change this.

          When you want this mess easy – as much as I understand the US system – imagine a democratic parlament and President, and a republican senate. So you have to talk to do something – and you can’t change the favorite project of the other party.

          1. So depressing how many of my fellow Germans don’t know the fuck how their government works…

        2. Gerry
          The Energiewende started under the Red-Green coalition and is still more or less in place, though subsequent conservative governments have watered it down in various ways, such as much needed reductions of the feed in tariffs, fiddling with shutdown times for power plants etc. But it is basically a Green policy. The FDP in particular tried to get rid of it when they were in government, but the political will isn’t there.

          1. Hermann Scheer was one of the chief architects of the Energiewende. I liked to watch videos of his interviews and speeches with his outspoken, strident and unequivocal support for renewable energy and the transition away from fossil fuels. I’m such a fan of the guy that I bought about three of the books on the subject that he authored. He had no doubt that a civilization based 100% renewable was possible and that it could be done quickly if not for the opposition of the fossil fuel interests He basically says as much in the 2 min 23 sec video linked here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXRw2E9v1os. A transcript of one of the last interviews he gave before his death is at https://www.democracynow.org/2010/10/15/hermann_scheer_1944_2010_german_lawmaker .

            I believe that the traditional energy (nuclear and FF) interests in Germany saw him as a “bull in a china shop” and they must have desperately wanted him to disappear. He was obese and not in the best of health but, I have some misgivings about the cause of his death in October 2010. In each of the years 2010, 2011 and 2012, Germany added more than 7 GW of PV capacity and then fell sharply to less than half of that for the following two years and slightly more than 1.5 GW in 2015. What would have happened if Hermann Scheer were still alive? He was not a problem for the entrenched interests in Germany alone. He was spreading his ideas across the globe and was instrumental in the establishment of the International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA. The transition appears to have slowed down following his death but, it is unstoppable.

            1. I try to stand far enough from the trees to see the forest.
              Maybe I’m wrong, but it’s my belief that the bottom line in terms of the energy/ environment issue is that the German people, regardless of their many and varied disagreements, are basically knowledgeable enough, and intelligent enough, to understand that they HAVE to make the transition to renewable energy, if they expect to survive as a modern industrial society.

              It’s not like they don’t understand that if the Russians, or the Saudi’s were to shut off oil and gas exports for ANY reason, they would be dead in the water, finished, economically.

              Now whether they’ll move fast enough, I have no real idea……. but it seems obvious that they’re the unquestioned leaders, in per capita terms, of the Western countries, in respect to renewable energy,considering what they have to work with, (fair wind, poor sun poor hydro, etc) and among the leaders in terms of strong environmental protection.

              My personal opinion is that a very substantial portion of the world is irrevocably too far gone down the highway to hell to do anything about it.
              But it’s also my opinion that there’s a substantial possibility that some countries have a fair to good shot at coming thru the baked in collapse headed our way more or less intact, in terms of people continuing to live ok in terms of food, water, shelter, medical care, etc.

              But living ok doesn’t mean driving three ton trucks as personal transportation!

              The key question may prove to be whether the climate goes haywire to the point we can’t produce enough food in such countries as the USA and places such as Western Europe.

              Nobody really knows the answer to this question, as far as I can see.

              I’m a farmer, pro grade, and understand the issue better than most. My personal opinion is that we have at least a fair to good shot at having enough food, although having it may well mean giving up beef, eating down the food ladder, moving production of some crops hundreds of miles north and or higher up, scaling up production of tropical or semitropical crops, etc.

              Another key question is whether we can avoid a hot WWIII scenario.

              People in places such as Indonesia and large portions of Africa will starve in place, if they can’t grow enough food. They AREN’T going to emigrate en masse, because there’s no physical way they can manage doing so…… at least not on the grand scale.

              We don’t necessarily have to get into a WWIII scenario because a major chunk of humanity is dying hard.

  6. OUR LEADERS LOOK CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE EYES, AND SHRUG

    “The latest G20 meeting wrapped up last week without firm commitments on phasing out coal power, or on what steps nations will promise to take to try to hold global warming to 1.5C. This goal is both necessary and, perhaps, unlikely – a report by scientists found that China, Russia, Brazil, and Australia are all pursuing policies that could lead to a cataclysmic five degrees of warming.

    The G20 is a perfect model of our collective failure to build institutions capable of coping with deep, long-term, existential problems that cannot be solved by building more weapons. On the one hand, the head of the UN says that there is no way for the world to meet its 1.5C warming goal without the leadership of the G20; on the other hand, a recent analysis found that G20 members have, in the past five years, paid $3.3tn in subsidies for fossil fuel production and consumption. The same group that claims to be bailing out humanity’s sinking ship with one hand is busily setting it aflame with the other hand. It is not good to be too pessimistic on climate change, because we must maintain the belief that we can win this battle if we are to have any hope at all. That said, it sure does seem like we’re screwed.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/04/climate-change-crisis-environment-politics

    1. Doug, take a deep breath and be thankful for every day that you still have remaining on this planet rather than worrying about crap that’s out of your control.

      1. While a good route to inner peace, it does rather make for a dull discussion blog if we don’t have any postings. 😉

      2. Why do you assume that being “thankful for every day you still have” and “worrying about crap that’s out of your control” are mutually exclusive?

        The latter may serve as catalyst to the former.

        I know I’ve never been more grateful for my fruit trees than now…

        1. Sadly, the idea that nothing can be done about climate change is often code for “mind your own business and stop bothering the oil, gas & coal industries”.

      3. I like Doug’s contribution to the construction of the problem definition. Whilst perhaps it is outside of my sphere of control, it is not outside of my sphere of concern. If you prefer not to drink from the firehose of knowledge then please consider the (x) next to Doug’s moniker.

    2. I think a lot of issues can be boiled down to the fact that the sum of individual interests is not the collective interest.

  7. A completely other question:

    How is this afghanistan mess discussed in the USA? Here the goverment is just starting to get hectically.

    1. In the US we generally discuss everything in very superficial, partisan and non-factual terms.
      This will be no different.
      And in another decade we will be ready to try nation building in a new place.
      Maybe right here in N.America.

    2. To further respond to your question- almost nothing about the US actions over 20 years in Afghanistan was done well, or thoughtfully, or with a long range plan. Stepped in mud as a knee jerk reaction and couldn’t pull the foot out.

      The lack of protection for all those who helped against the Islamic fundamentalists is a shameful tragedy.

    1. Hi Doug…my apologies if you had already posted on this, which was in yesterday’s Toronto Star:
      How his plan to open the Canadian Rockies to coal mining set Alberta’s Jason Kenney against country music stars
      https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2021/08/15/how-his-plan-to-open-the-canadian-rockies-to-coal-mining-set-albertas-jason-kenney-against-country-music-stars.html?li_source=LI&li_medium=thestar_canada
      Last spring, the Alberta government set off a firestorm with the quiet removal of a 44-year-old policy preventing most open pit coal mining in the iconic mountain range. At a time when pandemic polarization seems to have split Albertans into warring camps on just about everything, coal mining might be one of the few areas of common ground.

      1. Oregon and Washington states have not been cooperative with Montana and Wyoming desire to export coal via the western ports.
        “CHEYENNE, Wyo. (AP) — The U.S. Supreme Court decided Monday that it won’t allow Wyoming and Montana to sue Washington state for denying a key permit to build a coal export dock that would have sent coal to Asia.”

        What would be the destination of Canadian Rocky Mt coal?

        1. Canada’s exports are primarily metallurgical coal that goes to Asia.

    1. Transport is on the same trajectory as computers a few decades back. Now we all have mini computers in our pockets, tablets by our bedside, etc. Think lots of smaller transport vehicles to accommodate the new urban dweller – electric bikes, scooters, ride shares etc. it won’t really happen until peak oil kicks in for real though

    1. Nice to see this in Florida. It seems like we’ve waited a long time for the Sunshine State to do this kind of thing:

      “The battery will serve to replace FPL’s coal plants.

      “In June, we said goodbye to coal by dismantling FPL’s last coal plant in Florida just as we surpassed 40% of the way toward completing our ’30-by-30’ plan to install 30 million solar panels by 2030. Soon, the world’s largest solar-powered battery will begin serving customers, and we’ll turn our attention to an innovative green hydrogen pilot project – which could unlock the potential for a 100% carbon-free energy future,” added Silagy.

      The battery will store energy in order to bring electricity to homes even when the sun’s not shining (at night and on cloudy days) meaning other more polluting power sources will not be required. Although customers are bound to see some financial benefits the main gains will be environmental.”

    1. So far as I know, nobody associated with running the site ever said so in so many words.
      But Peak Oil didn’t happen as it was expected to do, and such organizations depend on volunteers who eventually burn out and move on to other projects or devote their time to a conventional career, rather than activism.

      My personal guess is that TOD closed shop for a combination of these two reasons.
      When you lose one or two people in such an organization, sometimes the magic magically disappears.

      And once the volume of good data and commentary starts to decline…… well, so does the readership.

        1. Weekandpeak —
          I think Gail’s attraction is that she thinks that energy = money, or put in the context of this website, nothing is valuable, desirable or beautiful except oil. Considering the obscene profits of the oil industry over the past century and a half, it makes sense to a lot of insiders.
          To anyone who stayed awake in Economics 101 for Jocks and Engineers, she is living in Cloud Cuckoo-land, as Aristophanes put it.

  14. The whole world needs to take this message seriously, and get focused on the task. Yeh, it is policy choice and choice of leadership to get the work going at a pace to achieve meaningful scale.

    “An upcoming analysis by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL),… solar deployment will need to accelerate to three to four times faster than its current rate”

    Once again- there is a very big backlog of projects awaiting grid interconnection. The U.S. installed nearly 20 GWdc of solar PV in 2020, with more than 450 GW of solar and solar plus storage projects having applied for interconnection to the bulk power system.

    1. OFM, even here in the rural backwater of Aberystwyth, W.Wales (UK) we now have a Tesla 6-bay supercharger. At 350 kW. Once when I was lamenting the lack of charging stations here, Fred Magyar told me Tesla were planning a supercharger in 2019. Didn’t happen. But now 6? At 350 kW? Holy shit 🙂

      1. I hope more people realize that slow (6hr) home or work charging will dramatically extend the life of their Li battery pack, as compared to fast supercharging.
        If possible.

  16. At 17, Uttar Pradesh Logs Lowest Ever Daily Covid Figure, Active Caseload Drops to 419

    Uttar Pradesh on Monday witnessed the steepest decline in the number of fresh cases as the state limited the infections to just 17, making it the lowest ever daily-case count. Uttar Pradesh has restricted the daily-case count below 100 for over 5 weeks now.

    The downward trajectory of the virus has continued for the consecutive 14th week. In another significant achievement, the state registered a drop in the daily Covid test positivity rate (TPR) — the number of positive cases against the total tests done — to 0.01 percent.

    This rate was at its highest at 16.84 percent on April 24 and now remains even lower than the lowest post the first wave of Covid-19.

    Anybody interested in how the most populous state in India manged to defeat this virus despite less than 7% of it’s more than 230 million residents being fully vaccinated?

    1. Yes, I am interested in hearing about that. But I’m also not sure how trustworthy the numbers are at this point TBH, you kind of have to go off of what ordinary people on scene are noticing.

      1. Do you have any insights as to “what ordinary people on scene are noticing.”? I have found it just about impossible to find press reports that give reasons for the declines with the NYT describing it as a mystery.

  17. $2-3 Trillion dollars is the overall cost of the Afghanistan nation building experiment.
    One that failed I may add.

    For some reason the Republicans in congress do not want to consider spending a similar sum on nation building within the the US borders- the infrastructure bill on the table.
    They prefer failure here as well.

    1. Hickory,
      I have to disagree, Republicans explicitly promised not to engage in nation building when Afghanistan was invaded.

      1. Kind’ve makes sense: they’re comfortable building militaries, less so with democracies…

      3. I would suggest that US forces in Afghanistan have participated in plenty of nation building operations over the last 19.5 years, despite what Republicans may have had to say about the matter in October 2001. I notice too the RNC website removed praise for the Historic Trump-Taliban Peace deal lol

    1. HICKORY — 😉

      Increased economic activity and a changing fuel mix in the electric power sector in 2021 will lead to a significant increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions this year, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). After decreasing by 11% in 2020, US energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by 7% to reach 4.9 billion metric tons this year. EIA FORECASTS COAL-RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS WILL INCREASE BY 17% IN 2021 BECAUSE THE SHARE OF US ELECTRICITY GENERATED BY COAL HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS YEAR. Caps mine. NB Shooting the messenger not likely to affect this result.

      https://www.greencarcongress.com/2021/08/20210811-eia.html

        1. Yeah, 2020 just can’t be used as a useful baseline. You have to go back to 2019.

          That’s why the big headlines about inflation are mostly misguided: they’re using 2020 as a baseline. If you use 2019 as your baseline you see that inflation is far less of a problem.

        2. Your comment sent me looking up the lyrics of that old Bob Dylan song ” The Times They Are A-Changin’ “. What a timeless song!

          I recently downloaded the data from the EIA’s Electric Power Monthly to update my charts and while coal is up 35% YTD over 2020, coal plant retirements are continuing apace. In terms of capacity retirements YTD, coal leads the pack at 48.73% followed by nuclear at 31% and NG at 13.44%. What is more interesting is the capacity additions where Wind, Solar and Batteries have made up almost 85% of new capacity YTD (42.1%, 34.7% and 8% respectively). I don’t believe we have ever seen renewables dominate capacity additions this much for the first five months of the year. Based on what is in the pipeline, Dylan’s song is most appropriate!

    2. behavioral, political and structural changes

      Yep. In other words, as a society we have to choose to make things change.

      Green house gases are mostly invisible. Continuing with BAU is easy and requires no thought. Most importantly, change is uncomfortable for a minority, especially investors and workers in the affected FF, transportation, building and ag industries.

      If you’ve spent 40 years learning petroleum geology, any change away from oil is very scary. If you’ve spent 40 years learning how to perfect internal combustion engines, any change to EVs is very scary.
      If your money is invested in oil & gas companies, change is very scary.
      If you’ve spent 20 years installing gas furnaces, heat pumps can be a little scary.
      If you raise cattle, plant based meat substitutes are very scary.

      But…all of these things are easy for consumers. EVs drive the same way as ICEs (except better). Heat pumps give nice constant heat and AC output. Plant based meat substitutes are becoming impossible to tell from old fashioned meat. New ways of doing things can take a bit of getting used to, but it’s not that hard.

      But… change is hard for the minority that is directly affected. We probably should try to make it easier for them, but in any case we can’t let them hold us back: it’s good for everyone, and in the long run BAU isn’t even good for them!

    3. From the article:
      “I enjoyed the Will Ferrell commercial for GM during the Super Bowl which stated that Norway is “eating our lunch” on EVs. As shown below, they sure are: Norway EV sales were 60% of all vehicle sales last year compared to 2% in the US. But there are a few things about Norway that are important to understand:
      • Norway has 5 million people and a population density that is 5%-15% of most other European nations
      • 97% of Norway’s electricity comes from hydropower; its electricity prices are 40%-70% of European levels
      • In Norway, EVs are exempt from VAT taxes and receive a 50% discount on toll roads and parking fees while ICE cars are subject to a 25% VAT, a CO2 tax, an NOx tax and a weight tax. As a result, Norwegian ICE cars are more expensive to buy and 75% more expensive to operate
      • A full conversion to EVs would put its EV subsidies at the second largest gov’t expenditure behind pensions
      So, let’s dispense with Norway as a paradigm for the world’s high density, car-loving countries and see how the EV revolution is going elsewhere.”

      Umm, sounds to me like Norway might be the poster country for how a nation weans (read changes citizens behavior) its populace off of FF: reduce population and tax the hell out of FF. Coming soon to a theater near you.

      1. EDGY —

        Not forgetting that Norway is also a global leader in the extraction and sale of fossil fuels. Mostly oil, with some gas, the country’s leaders plan to continue exploring for, extracting and selling these fossil fuels well into the future. And, the emissions that stem from these activities once these fuels are burned massively outweigh emissions from within the borders of Norway. According to Equinor CEO Eirik Wærness: “Our view is that Norway will continue to be involved with oil and gas for many decades to come even if we move towards the climate goals.” Hence the famous, or infamous, Norway paradox.

        1. Only consumption is important, when it comes to emissions. Counting production is double counting.

          If everyone imitated Norway and dramatically reduced FF consumption, emissions would be….dramatically reduced.

          1. I expect all of Norway’s fossil fuel production (oil and gas) is consumed. Of course, some of the gas will leak into atmosphere during extraction and transport. So, no double counting.

            1. Yes, it’s double counting.

              The oil & gas is being exported to countries which are not being smart enough to reduce their O&G consumption. Those countries are responsible for the consumption, not Norway.

              Now, in a perfect world Norway would reduce their O&G production as well, which might raise O&G prices and accelerate a transition away from O&G. But that’s asking a lot. Heck, it’s impressive that Norway is feeling guilty about it’s production.

            2. If they would be really green, they would strand their oil assets so nobody would be able to burn it. At least this century.

              They could try to deliver hydro power to Europe for income – all the green coutries would pay good to polish up their balance.

              But they don’t do this. So they are only half green.

      2. Edgy, you’re exactly right: the simple way to reduce FF consumption is to tax the hell out of it. Even the most conservative of economists agree: if a commodity has significant external costs that are not captured by conventional accounting, you have to slap a tax on it to capture those costs. Only then will you proper allocate (& consume) resources.

        1. ” simple way to reduce FF consumption is to tax the hell out of it”
          and it would be an effective mechanism for a short time.
          And then in a democracy such as ours you be thrown out of office.

          1. Well, you have to have something reasonably close to a social consensus on the matter before you impose the tax.

            Like in Norway…

            1. “social consensus on the matter”

              I’ve been an adult long enough that i forgot there was such a thing.
              Although I do still have the song ‘Imagine’ saved in precious box in my head.

            2. I’ve been an adult long enough that i forgot there was such a thing.

              And that’s not an accident. The Koch family, in particular, has been fighting a pre-emptive war to preserve fossil fuels for the last 70 years, and they’re happy to sacrifice participatory democracy (and science, health and the environment) to do it.

  19. Interesting. Now, will appeals reverse this important court decision?

    COURT BLOCKS A VAST ALASKAN DRILLING PROJECT, CITING CLIMATE DANGERS

    “A federal judge in Alaska on Wednesday blocked construction permits for an expansive oil drilling project on the state’s North Slope that was designed to produce more than 100,000 barrels of oil a day for the next 30 years. The multibillion-dollar plan, known as Willow, by the oil giant ConocoPhillips had been approved by the Trump administration and legally backed by the Biden administration. Environmental groups sued, arguing that the federal government had failed to take into account the effects that drilling would have on wildlife and that the burning of the oil would have on global warming. — A federal judge has agreed.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/18/climate/alaska-willow-oil.html

  20. WHO is living in cloud cuckoo land and what site is the referenced OFW, etc?

    What is the context for this comment?

  22. Gail is a Cabbage For Christ–
    And it goes downhill from there, if possible.

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