178 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, April 27, 2018”

    1. Great book list. I’d like to read that one on the edible history of humanity.

    2. Great list mac. I thought fooled by randomness was just a wonderful little book, I liked if far more than the Black Swan which I read later. there are several on here that I would like to read

      1. Hi Wake,

        Thanks,I will read Fooled by Randomness sooner rather than later since you liked it so well.

  2. WARNING POLITICAL RANT! Ignore if not interested.

    The last non petroleum thread is now basically dead, with this new one here, but I posted a long response to Hickory and Ron’s assertions that people should have figured out Trump in a few minutes.

    So I’m copying it here. I think it’s worth reading for insight into how and why people vote the way they do.

    Hi Hickory,

    You are obviously a person who knows more than a little about what’s going on in the world, including the world of politics.

    BUT you are very sadly mistaken in saying people should have figured out Trump in very short order. So is Ron Patterson.

    Look guys, what is POSSIBLE, in the ABSTRACT, if you are already well informed, and INTO politics is ONE THING.

    What actually happens between the ears of the average or typical VOTER is something else altogether.

    WE hang out together here in a forum where everybody is interested and generally well informed about economic, political, and environmental issues.

    If you live in a university town, and are surrounded by an intellectually elite class of people, yes, you and your friends and associates could see thru Trump in a flash.

    Since our peers HERE are knowledgeable, you guys ASSUME the voting public is knowledgeable. THAT’S a mistake I don’t make.

    The typical person on the street doesn’t know shit from apple butter about politics, and doesn’t CARE to know.

    He or she votes on his or her PERCEPTIONS.
    Now in spite of what little old HB thinks, I don’t hate HRC, or women.

    I have spent a ton of time however, trying to get people to understand WHY she was a lousy candidate.

    People believe what they want to believe, and ignore what they want to ignore.

    I posted the irrefutable details of HRC’s little Cattle Gate scam here several times.

    NOT A SINGLE PERSON IN THIS FORUM EVER ACKNOWLEDGED THE FACT THAT SHE RAN A SCAM WITH HELP from a crooked broker, a powerful insider industrialist, a hubby in public office, etc, or that she accepted tens of millions of dollars into her family slush fund, from obviously shady characters doing business with Uncle Sam, while Sec of State, etc.

    Virtually everybody that commented about her secret and obviously home brewed email system DEFENDED her, while had she been a republican having done the same thing, they would have been screaming bloody murder… about the REPUBLICAN’s lack of respect for the law, sense of entitlement being ABOVE the rules, endangering national security, etc….. and EVERYBODY in the forum KNOWS this is true.

    So….. the people who voted for Trump cut him the same sort of slack, because they believed he was ON THEIR SIDE, at least to a greater extent than HRC.

    I can go into any business or bar or out to any golf course, or college cafeteria, ready to bet my farm that out of the first hundred people selected at random, not more than half a dozen REALLY knew shit from apple butter about EITHER TRUMP OR HRC PRIOR to his election.

    But half the people in that sample would have had a very poor opinion of HRC, as compared to Trump……. because HRC was in the public and political SPOTLIGHT for decades, where as Trump was merely a fucking celebrity, in terms of the public really knowing anything about him, meaning, essentially, that the public DIDN’T know anything much about him.

    HER negatives were well known, his were still basically news to the people that VOTED FOR HIM. NEWS they were reluctant to accept, because they didn’t WANT to accept it….. and don’t forget…. they didn’t then and don’t today spend more than a few minutes here and there taking in SOUND BITES … which is basically all the typical Democratic voter does as well.

    Sound bites add up……… over TIME. A year is not long enough to change the minds of very many people who have spent DECADES making up their minds about any given policy, political party, or politician.
    Sure the ones on the fence already may be motivated to get off the fence, but most people will continue to hang onto their former beliefs and opinions.

    The time we spend here on politics, is time most people spend on their hobbies, or extra work, or family, or television, or getting drunk or laid or whatever.

    I have zero use for Trump, and can’t think of anything good to say about him, in terms of policies or his record, but I do acknowledge that while he’s an old he coon of a crook while HRC is merely a Girl Scout wannabe, by comparison, he understands people, the media, and the mood of the public. HRC never did, and never will.

    HRC did a l0t of good things over the course of her career, or at least supported a lot of good policies.

    MY POINT is that you guys didn’t know shit from apple butter about her actual RECORD, and ignored that record when your nose was rubbed in it.

    Why WHY WHY would you expect the people who voted for Trump to do differently than from what you did?

    We all have have long but SELECTIVE memories, and we interpret things in terms of the way they impact our own lives, and we remember the bad shit about our enemies, and we forget the bad shit about our friends.

    HRC spent her entire career building a vast army of enemies by way of forcing, to the extent she could, changes on them they didn’t want.

    Those memories built up, a little at a time, over the last three or four decades, in the minds of working class people who came to hate her guts…….. INCLUDING TENS OF MILLIONS OF WORKING CLASS DEMOCRATS.

    THAT’S WHY Obama could come out of nowhere and get the nomination when she expected to be anointed. Remember the insider joke in her second campaign? “I’m with her…….. I guess. ”

    Close to zero charisma.

    THAT’s why, despite her octopus like hold on the party machinery, her OWNERSHIP of it, Sanders came out of NOWHERE, after the entire D ESTABLISHMENT couldn’t turn up one serious challenger( they all knew the game was rigged in her favor ! ) and millions of the best and brightest and youngest and best educated people went FOR SANDERS….. voters were with her………. I GUESS.

    It’s utterly stupid to nominate a candidate for president with the worst negatives in the history of the party. If ANYBODY WAS CAPABLE OF LOSING TO TRUMP…….. IT WAS HRC.

    (Don’t forget the R establishment did all it could to AVOID running Trump. )

    Did any of you read the link about the book review written by a hard core Democrat woman ?

    I’ll post it again.

    Let’s hope the D’s don’t make the mistake of running such a flawed candidate again. She managed to lose to Trump, who was arguably the worst candidate the R’s ever nominated, excepting the fact that he understands people, media, has charisma, etc.

    You don’t put a pitcher on the mound that can’t pitch.

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/04/hillary-clinton-misanthrope-glum-loner-in-2016-campaign/

    1. Beyond the past, I’m more interested in whats next.
      Any smarter choices?
      Any way to fix a broken democracy?
      My broken list- the electoral college, gerrymandered districts, restrictive voting rights laws at the state level, and the big one-money buying influence.

        2. apocalyptic thinking has a poor track record.

          Yeah, but that doesn’t mean an apocalypse can be avoided by denying reality either. Not to mention that the precautionary principle should always be applied in spades!

          And last but not least:

          Past performance is never an absolute indicator of future outcomes!

          As an example, the engine on the Southwest Airlines plane that recently failed and killed a passenger had 30,000 plus safe flying hours on it and had even been recently inspected. Yet, probably due to metal fatigue in one of the turbine blades it somehow crossed a tipping point and caused a cascade of catastrophic events…

          1. Yair,

            Thirty thousand hours? how long do they run those turbines before rebuild?

            1. how long do they run those turbines before rebuild?

              Dunno!

              I’m certainly no aircraft engine expert but a quick google search tells me that that particular engine is considered to be one of the most reliable and safest engines in service today.

              Operational history
              As of June 2016, as the most used high bypass turbofan, it achieved more than 800 million engine flight hours, and at a rate of one million flight hours every eight days it will achieve one billion flight hours by 2020.[4] It has more than 550 operators and more than 2,400 CFM56-powered jet aircraft are in the air at any moment.[4] It is known for its dependability: its average time on wing is 30,000 hours before a first shop visit, with the current fleet record at 50,000 hours.[4]

              As of July 2016, 30,000 engines have been built: 9,860 CFM56-5 engines for the Airbus A320ceo and A340-200/300 and more than 17,300 CFM56-3/-7B engines for the Boeing 737 Classic and 737NG.[3] In July 2016, CFM had 3,000 engines in backlog.[3] Lufthansa, launch customer for the CFM56-5C-powered A340, have an engine with more than 100,000 flight hours, having entered commercial service on November 16, 1993, overhauled four times since.
              Source Wikipedia

              If the 100,ooo flight hours with four rebuilds on the Lufthansa A340 are typical, then maybe about every 25,000 flight hours sounds reasonable. I don’t know specifically what the schedule was for the Southwest Boeing 737 but if it had 30,000 flight hours on it, one might assume it had had at least one complete overhaul on it before the current failure?

              Maybe some lurking pilot, maintenance mechanic or aeronautical engineer could chime in here and give us some more in depth and behind the scenes information.

              In any case, my use of this engine failure in my original post was merely as an example to underscore my point, that “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.”

              Cheers!

            2. Depends more on cycles rather than hours, short haul get looked at more often than trans-oceanic. Rebuilds depend on results of inspections rather than hours but inspections are based on the number of cycles. If everything passes, carry on but, if there is a problem, then work is applied to the problem area.

              NAOM

            3. Makes sense. Multiple takeoffs and landings probably put the engines under much more stress than cruising at altitude over long distances. I’d guess the same applies to all aircraft components including the fuselage which is subject to many more cycles of pressurization and depressurization on short haul flights.

            4. Yair,

              Thanks for research Fred . . . I thought there may have been a lurker from the Aero Industry who could chip in.

              Durable technology compared to reciprocators.

              Cheers.

            5. NAOM is right. The parameter to rate turbine lifetime is the number of engine starts. Engine manufacturers perform “cyclic fatigue” tests on a representative sample of turbine blades to figure out when cracks begin to form. Then they mandate a rebuild at some lower number of starts.

              You can google “turbine spin test” or “high-cycle fatigue” for some great photos of test equipment and occasional failures. I have a friend in this business.

            6. Here’s an example courtesy of Transport Canada. Blade roots are a place of high stress where cracks often start.

      2. Hickory – that list could get quite long –

        corporate and/or extreme right wing (sinclair/fox) dominated media. two party system with no true left represented (listen to hoyer/tillemann audio, not to mention HRC/Sanders incidents). i’ll stop there so others can chime in if they want. but the list is so long it will inevitably lead to a single conclusion.

    2. BUT you are very sadly mistaken in saying people should have figured out Trump in very short order. So is Ron Patterson.

      No, no, no! I said smart people should figure him out in about 10 minutes. Dumb people are suckers for a con job. They will never figure him out. They think he is on their side. They think the conservatives who gave a million dollar tax cut to the top 1% and gave the middle class enough for a Big Mac and fries, are doing them a favor. That’s how dumb they are. They are being conned and they don’t even know it.

      1. WARNING POLITICAL RANT

        Hi Ron,

        You’re a pretty smart guy.

        But you miss my point.

        Of all the people you know, how many spend more than a few minutes HERE AND THERE actually following the news, actually getting to know something about who HRC is or was, who Trump was BEFORE the election?

        You’re obviously mathematically literate.

        Tell us what you think about Cattle Gate. In MATHEMATICAL TERMS.

        All the people I knew back when it was news who were mathematically literate turned whiter than usual and refused to even discuss it, if they were liberal big D Democrats, because she was a big D Democrat. They suppressed the memory. The mainstream media helped them. When THE ATLANTIC ran a supposedly COMPREHENSIVE article on the history of her scandals, a year or two back, or right wing smears about her, the article DIDN’T EVEN MENTION CATTLE GATE.

        The conservatives way back then and more recently were howling with glee at her being caught out, and outrage that the msm press didn’t go for her throat, the way it would have had she been a Republican, in their estimation.

        My bottom line stands. People vote for the candidates and parties they perceive to be on their side, as opposed to the enemie’s side, in the culture war.

        I have friends and relatives who vote R on the basis of the Second Amendment, or opposition to abortion. I have friends and relatives who vote D on the basis of their support for civil rights for everybody, including gays, lesbians, and various people’s of color, as they say these days. These hot button issues determine their votes. Nothing else really matters. It’s CULTURE WAR.

        Facts have damned little to do with it, in terms of the character, ethics, and history of the party and candidate, these days.

        Remember Daniel Patrick Moynihan (?Spelling ) “defining deviancy down”?

        When the D’s defended BILL and the D party when he was getting blow jobs from a love sick intern in the WH, and Hillary was running her bimbo squad covering HIS record of abuse of women………

        Well, the old Christians I know, the ones who are serious about their religion, came to the conclusion that while they don’t care for the way Trump treats women, the Democrats rewrote the rules about such things, defending Bill, so they decided to fight fire with fire, and cut Trump the same slack YOU cut Clinton.

        Or maybe you don’t believe any of the women who accused Bill of various assaults were telling the truth? But I you betcha believe all the women who tell the same sort of story about Trump and about Roy Moore, right?

        Because you’re just another human being, smarter than the average by a mile it’s true, but you still believe what you WANT to believe, and ignore what you want to ignore.

        And one more time……. when you talk to a stranger, how much does he or she know about peak oil, or overshoot, or any of the things that are important to you…… and me ?

        The AVERAGE person on the street is as ignorant as a fence post, when it comes to politics. Most men can tell you the names of more football coaches than they can cabinet members. Most people barely know who their congressman or senator is, unless they’re one of the rather SMALL minority that gets serious about politics.

        But we ALL get serious about the culture war, and when it’s time to vote, well we vote OUR SIDE of the culture war. We cut the candidates of OUR side all the slack they need, we defend them, we badmouth the opposition.

        And then we forget about it, for the most part, until the next election.

        You, and Dennis, have displayed a truly remarkable level of support for free speech, and that’s something I admire you for, something that results in my having ENORMOUS respect for both of you.

        But you simply don’t seem to get it when I say most people don’t pay any more real attention to our political leadership than you probably pay to let us say for example professional sports. I doubt you know much about Nascar, or pro football, or hockey, or even college ball, although you may know a lot about your home town team, ALABAMA, lol.

        ( Of course the reason you don’t get it COULD be that I’M wrong about it all. But I don’t THINK I’m wrong, lol. And I haven’t seen anything, here or elsewhere, that leads me to SERIOUSLY question my conclusions. )

        There’s no reason you SHOULD know a lot about any particular sport, or line of work, unless it’s a hobby of yours, or a passion, or what you do to earn your living.

        Most people know what LITTLE they know about politics, whether they are Democrats or Republicans, or independents, as the result of hearing endlessly repeated sound bites, year after year.

        One year of campaigning and sound bites is JUST NOT ENOUGH to motivate the typical D or R voter to even consider changing his mind…….. UNLESS that voter is already scared, worried, pissed, and TIRED OF BEING IGNORED, tired of being disrespected.

        In that case, a rebellion is possible, and Trump played his cards perfectly. HRC played hers like a third grader.

        The worried, scared, and pissed voters were ready to rebel, even though the hard core of the Democrats voted D, and the hard core of the R’s voted R, and would have done so NO MATTER who represented their party at the top of the ticket.

        But enough of the traditional working class vote that used to go to the D’s went to the R’s this time, because HRC made it obvious that she looks down on them … because she spent too much time hobnobbing with banksters…… because she displayed a breathtaking sense of entitlement, of being above the rules with her secret home brew email system…….. Take all this together, and it adds up to the fact that she was a LOUSY candidate, the only one, most likely, out of any the D’s could have nominated, that Trump could beat.

        The D’s, and the liberal msm press did a pretty decent job of pointing out Trump’s many shortcomings….. but the people who were pissed, and scared, and MAD, and prone to vote R anyway in any case, simply did not hear those sound bites often enough and long enough for them to have the necessary effect of scaring them out of voting for Trump.

        At the same time, they were hearing the R sound bites, the Trump sound bites, about CROOKED HILLARY. It does not even MATTER that she was, or was NOT, guilty of the things she was accused of. What MATTERS, in terms of who won, is that her reputation was bad enough even before the primary season, that she was SUSCEPTIBLE to this sort of attack.

        There wasn’t another Democrat in the entire country that Trump could have successfully attacked this way, with remotely comparable results.

        How many times have the people in places like New Orleans heard that they are going to drown in a super storm someday? How many ACT on that knowledge ? How many Californians know the BIG ONE is in the cards, and that every day it’s a day closer than it was yesterday? How many ACT on that knowledge?

        If countless people, many of them well educated professionals don’t act on such knowledge, why should we expect a typical man or woman on the street to make a serious effort to learn anything about politics, and act on their newfound knowledge?

        You have a brain, and you usually use it, but sometimes you forget the fundamentals of naked ape behavior.

        Most people would rather die than think. Left or right. They let other people do their thinking for them. They look around to see what their peers are doing, and what their “betters”, the people they look up to, are doing, and copy their behaviors, as best they can.

        Even professionals refuse to think when thinking threatens to intrude on their mental comfort zone. Most professional economists believe we will never run short of essential resources for instance. Any freshman student of the life sciences knows better.

        Yep, a TRULY smart person could have seen thru Trump in fifteen minutes…… IF he had all the necessary background knowledge needed, but the vast majority of us LACK that knowledge, and nobody I know was willing to spend a few hundred or thousands of hours seeking that knowledge in order to decide how to vote.

        And incidentally, this argument applies equally well to HRC.

        If you’re mathematically literate, you need spend only a couple of hours on Cattle Gate to know who HRC really is. You can read all about it at any large public library in the back issues of the NYT, the Washington Post, etc.

        In the meantime, I’m stocking up on popcorn and booze to in order to celebrate the news as Mueller turns up one piece after another of Trump dirt.

        I already know a fair number of people who voted for him who voted that way to vote against HRC. They’re already quite open about admitting that mistake, and more are changing their minds about him every day.

        My opinion is that the D’s are going to win going away this fall, and I’m going to be working one way or another helping, getting potential D’s registered, taking a couple to the polls, blogging, maybe working on a phone bank.

        I will use whatever credibility and microscopically minute amount of influence I have to convince the D establishment to run winners, rather than old style machine type politicians who believe they are ENTITLED to nominations.

        I STRONGLY recommend that all D’s either read or REREAD HOW TO WIN FRIENDS AND INFLUENCE PEOPLE.

        1. Mac, I have read the Dale Carnegie book. I was not impressed. Anyway I will be 80 in less than two months. I am not the least bit interested in winning friends and influencing people. I am only interested in telling the truth.

          Why, why do Trumpites keep bringing up past democratic administrations when anyone points out the very, very stupid things that Trump does or says. I know, if you have no defense for the things this stupid man does then bring up the past.

          Well Mac, I am not interested in the past, I am interested in that very stupid idiot we have in the Oval Office today.

          End of story.

  3. We (globally) crossed the line where more development, more technology and more materials no longer improve our general living circumstances and quality of life. In fact the negative aspects are overwhelming any positive aspects (for humans). Material consumption has accelerated faster than population growth by a large factor, as has fossil fuel consumption. Despite slowing growth in population, the consumption continues to grow at an Earth blistering pace.

    https://www.greenpeace.org/archive-international/en/news/Blogs/makingwaves/un-report-on-resource-limits/blog/57689/
    The report shows that consumption of Earth’s primary resources (metals, fuels, timber, cereals and so forth) has tripled in the last 40 years, driven by population growth (increasing at about 1.1% per year), economic growth (averaging about 3% per year over the same period) and consumption per person, worldwide.

    Furthermore, modern technology has not made our economies more efficient, as promised. As technology has advanced, material consumption accelerated. Fossil fuel consumption has grown annually by 2.9%, metal ores by 3.5%, and non-metallic minerals by 5.3%. Since 2000, even as economic growth and population growth slowed, material demand accelerated. Frivolous consumption has increased among the rich and we now spend increasing amounts of energy to extract lower grade resources, reducing productivity.
    https://www.greenpeace.org/archive-international/en/news/Blogs/makingwaves/un-report-on-resource-limits/blog/57689/

    This is apparently from a primarily anthropocentric point of view. Limits of consumption, destruction, habitat use and pollution reached beyond the limits of the wild species quite a while ago.

    And here is the UN press release:
    Worldwide Extraction of Materials Triples in Four Decades, Intensifying Climate Change and Air Pollution
    https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/worldwide-extraction-materials-triples-four-decades-intensifying

    Also soil and land use : Hundreds of Millions of Hectares, Nearly the Size of Brazil, Face Degradation Threat – UN Report Warns
    For the European Union, for instance, 0.31 hectares per person were required in 2007. This is one-fourth more than what is domestically available in the EU, is one-third more that the globally available per person cropland in 2007, and is well above the 0.20 per person SOS target for 2030.
    The report says that the key causes of our global challenges are linked to unsustainable consumption levels, but in high-consuming countries only a few policy instruments address excessive consumption habits and the structures that encourage them.
    At the same time, with an expanding global population and a worldwide trend towards urbanization, up to 5 per cent of the global land (around 15 billion hectares) is expected to be covered by built-up areas by 2050.

    https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/hundreds-millions-hectares-nearly-size-brazil-face-degradation

    So for those that think we can reverse direction globally, reduce consumption dramatically, repair the ecosystems and stop polluting in a short time (decades), I think they need to contact the UN right away.

    All I have to say is that the world is going to be a very different place in the year 2118.

    1. All I have to say is that the world is going to be a very different place in the year 2118.

      Yes, it very probably will! And if we look back 100 years to 1918 the world population was roughly 1.7 billion. Ironically it was also the year that between 3 to 5% of the world’s population was wiped out by a massive Flu Pandemic.

      However humanity was not yet in the throes of ecological overshoot and we were still in the early days of our fossil fuel powered industrial civilization. It was a mere five years after Tony Seba’s photograph showing that all horse drawn carriages had been replaced by ICE automobiles in 13 short years.

      It was also around this time when the stage was set for the Green Revolution by the discovery of the Haber-Bosch process that allowed our population to rise exponentially to it’s current 7.5 plus billion.

      According to the latest projections from the UN, global population is expected to hit 11.2 billion in 2100. https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2017.html

      Frankly given our current situation, I have a very difficult time thinking of that number as even remotely possible! So there is little doubt that 2118 will be a very different world than what we are experiencing today.

    2. Greenpeace is very extreme (it has been called a terrorist organization in the past). Would that really be a trustworthy source of unbiased information?

      1. Hey Krell, read! It’s a UN report.
        And yes, far more reliable than many sources out there.
        Who did the terrorist calling Rush Limbaugh, Michael Savage, Faux News?

        1. I didn’t even get started on the UN because I thought that’d be a waste of time, but who could forget Agenda 21? The UN is the hierarchy of hierarchies, full of bureaucrats who want both Christianity and America to be destroyed. Those dots are easy to connect!

          1. Warning, warning, conspiracy theorist!
            America is doing a fine job of destroying itself with the help of the right wing sociopaths.

          2. Krell, regardless of your use of the ‘character assassination’ argument technique, the points raised in the reports posted by Gone Fishing are of entirely legitimate concern. If you have something of substance to say, then do so, otherwise no thanks.

          3. …but who could forget Agenda 21?

            Have you, perchance, ever bothered to actually read it? Don’t worry, that’s just a rhetorical question. It’s doubtful your reading comprehension level would would be up to par.

            Agenda 21 is a 350-page document divided into 40 chapters that have been grouped into 4 sections:

            Section I: Social and Economic Dimensions is directed toward combating poverty, especially in developing countries, changing consumption patterns, promoting health, achieving a more sustainable population, and sustainable settlement in decision making.

            Section II: Conservation and Management of Resources for Development includes atmospheric protection, combating deforestation, protecting fragile environments, conservation of biological diversity (biodiversity), control of pollution and the management of biotechnology, and radioactive wastes.

            Section III: Strengthening the Role of Major Groups includes the roles of children and youth, women, NGOs, local authorities, business and industry, and workers; and strengthening the role of indigenous peoples, their communities, and farmers.

            Section IV: Means of Implementation includes science, technology transfer, education, international institutions and financial mechanisms.

            Source Wikipedia

            1. Horrible isn’t it? Agenda 21 does not feed the ever greedy selfish maw of the military/industrial/;corporate complex and it’s minions. Spewing out their waste products all over the earth.
              Nope, it helps people and the environment, making life on the planet better all around.
              That is anathema to the sociopathic parasites and predators of the “developed” nations. It is toxic to their way of life.

              Does anyone have a spray to get rid of these sociopathic pests?

            2. Does anyone have a spray to get rid of these sociopathic pests?

              Actually, yes! Unfortunately the UN doesn’t approve of its general use on humans…

              Maybe the UN could pass a resolution designating them as a mutant, invasive species šŸ˜‰

              https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758%2Fs13415-018-0581-9

              Not my future? Core values and the neural representation of future events

              Abstract
              Individuals with pronounced self-transcendence values have been shown to put greater weight on the long-term consequences of their actions when making decisions. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the neural mechanisms underlying the evaluation of events occurring several decades in the future as well as the role of core values in these processes. Thirty-six participants viewed a series of events, consisting of potential consequences of climate change, which could occur in the near future (around 2030), and thus would be experienced by the participants themselves, or in the far future (around 2080). We observed increased activation in anterior VMPFC (BA11), a region involved in encoding the personal significance of future events, when participants were envisioning far future events, demonstrating for the first time that the role of the VMPFC in future projection extends to the time scale of decades. Importantly, this activation increase was observed only in participants with pronounced self-transcendence values measured by self-report questionnaire, as shown by a statistically significant interaction of temporal distance and value structure. These findings suggest that future projection mechanisms are modulated by self-transcendence values to allow for a more extensive simulation of far future events. Consistent with this, these participants reported similar concern ratings for near and far future events, whereas participants with pronounced self-enhancement values were more concerned about near future events. Our findings provide a neural substrate for the tendency of individuals with pronounced self-transcendence values to consider the long-term consequences of their actions.

            3. Everything I thought I needed to know about Agenda 21 I can have explained to me by talk radio. Are you trying to tell me that’s not the case? ???

        2. O, to worship a UN-god?
          Whoā€™s all vengeance?
          Whoā€™s meme is eternal guilt,
          and self-loathing?
          Whoā€™s no love to ever offer?
          For whom,
          ā€œtoo much consumption is dangerousā€?

    3. “So for those that think we can reverse direction globally, reduce consumption dramatically, repair the ecosystems and stop polluting in a short time (decades), I think they need to contact the UN right away.”

      We can start the process at least by getting rid of these special interest groups only benefiting the already rich and powerful.

  4. I had heard a lecturer on climate change say that cities were generally rebuilt every 50 years. If that is near true than in most cases with increasing storms and rising sea levels it will not be a case of stranded assets. It will be more of a case of assets being lost or abandoned that are not many years from demolition. If an area is being flooded regularly then further development or rebuilding should stop and the efficacy of trying to protect those older buildings should be assessed. A process of retreat might be much more efficient than trying to preserve areas through seawalls and dams.
    The major loss would be the land, not the buildings.

    Survey on actual service lives for North American buildings
    http://cwc.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/DurabilityService_Life_E.pdf

    The Exact Age of Almost Every Building in NYC, in One Map
    https://gizmodo.com/the-exact-age-of-almost-every-building-in-nyc-in-one-m-1348558392

  5. Factory Made
    A history of modernity as a history of factories struggles to see beyond their walls

    “Behemoth echoes Job; Freeman has written a kind of natural history of the giant factory. It arrived as a shock, pulling in new kinds of workers who had once been outside the labor market. These new workers suffer through brutal exploitation… As revenues decline, giant factories either close or relocate, leaving behind wrecked buildings and wrecked lives. In medical terms, ‘gigantism’ is pathological growth, and the pattern Freeman ascribes to factories evokes the bloom of algae and jellyfish in ocean ecosystems thrown out of balanceā€”frenzied proliferation followed by collapse…

    Natural history shows that you canā€™t understand a pathogen only by looking at the way its lays low human sufferers, the biggest and most visible of its hosts. Likewise, trying to understand the pathologies of capitalism by looking at its most spectacular eruptions has limits. Freeman argues that giant factories were parts taken as the whole, but by locating his history within their physical plant, he risks mistaking the most visible symptom for the disease itself.

    To abuse the metaphor, diseases require particular conditions to thriveā€” untreated water, a ready source of host bodies. Industrial gigantism doesnā€™t seem like it can be unpicked from the imperial and colonial ambitions of industrial powers, from the ambitions of individual capitalists, from the surrender of governments and regulators, from the globalization of trade and finance concomitant with the hardening of national borders, or from the idea of the market itself. Treating giant factories as pseudobiological entities, or at least entities that obey natural laws, is by definition a way of naturalizing a very particular form of capitalist exploitation…

    If the excesses of industrialization are a kind of naturalā€” if pathologicalā€” phenomenon, a force majeure, it makes it too easy to forget that we still live in the world of the factory, but the malice, strangeness, and stupidity of it has become invisible to us… Is it possible to have all of the things made possible by factories without tacitly submitting to the ‘factory system’?

    …modernity is more than stuff; industrialization is more than giant factories. A challenge of trying to ‘reinvent the world’ is figuring out where to find purchase on the parts of the world that can be reinvented. Late capitalism, with its endless emphasis on work, its bruising geography of megacommutes and decaying public transit, its reduction of all kinds of valuable institutionsā€” democracy, education, social welfareā€” to consumer choice, is gigantic in the way Freeman uses the word, so big that it is hard to see anything else. The paradox of this ambitious, thought-provoking book is that in order to understand the panoply of modernity, it is necessary to look at an enclosed spaceā€” to see the entire world from inside factory walls. The question that Freeman cannot answer is how to look beyond them.”

    1. A history of modernity as a history of factories struggles to see beyond their walls

      Perhaps it’s time for you to update your thinking about history in general, the present and possible future scenarios. You seem to be somehow stuck in a 19th century Victorian Era world view.

      I’ve posted this link recently.
      How Thomas Friedman and Yuval Noah Harari Think About The Future of Humanity
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5chp-PRYq-w

      Note: exploration of future scenarios is not the same as making predictions about the future.

      1. Ya ya, Fred, Yuval, for example, is mentioned in this 3-year-old thread here.

        “Now 41, Harari grew up… studied history… is a vegan… meditates for two hours a day, often going on extended retreats… lives with his husband on… an agricultural co-operative…ā€

        “I tend to agree with Steven Pinker. We now live in the most peaceful era in history…

        Our best chance is with what is known as cellular agriculture or clean meat, which is the idea of creating meat from cells and not from animals. If you want a steak, you just grow a steak from cells…

        I think that Homo sapiens as we know them will probably disappear within a century or so, not destroyed by killer robots or things like that, but changed and upgraded with biotechnology and artificial intelligence into something else, into something different…” ~ Yuval Noah Harari/The Guardian interview

        That’s nice…

        1. “The most violent element in society is ignorance.”
          ā€” Emma Goldman

          1. …masquerading as knowledge and wisdom and the force to effect it? Something like that?

        2. Thatā€™s niceā€¦

          Is it now?! It all kinda just depends on a few variables and how societies deal with them.

          Note: exploration of future scenarios is not the same as making predictions about the future.

          There is a high likelihood that disruptive technologies such as AI and CRISPR could be used by the wealthy members of society to upgrade Homo sapiens in ways that could drastically alter the evolution of humans and make the current playing field even less level than it already is. Note: this is not a prediction by Yuval, just some food for thought he posits, given our knowledge of history and taking into account already available current technology.

          Homo sapiens sapiens was probably largely responsible for the extinction of our cousins, the other Homo sapiens species, Homo neanderthalensis, despite the later having a potentially larger brain and perhaps being less aggressive, Homo sapiens sapiens probably pervailed because of certain technological and cultural advantages.

          An artificially enhanced, new super Homo sapiens species could at least in theory, easily make short shrift of the unenhanced version of a potentially new underprivileged useless class comprised of billions of individuals.

          Think that couldn’t happen?

          1. Altered Homo sapien certainly could, and likely will happen.
            I can see a version of human who does not tend to overeat having a big advantage in longevity over the current version of gluttons.
            And I’m pretty sure most females would prefer a male version with a little better impulse control over their sexual drive.
            Some people say we shouldn’t play God, but ‘hello’ we already do. Put a chainsaw in a mans hand, a gatlin gun, a fission reaction, etc. and you have a sapien playing god. Without wisdom by and large.

  6. Malnutrition in Malawi: is permaculture the solution?

    “Permaculture is one such approach that’s being adopted by rural farmers in Malawi. It is a design method that mimics natural systems to decrease the need for outside inputs and increase biological diversity. This approach meets human needs for food, fuel, and fodder and, unlike fortified foods, it is accessible to households across the economic spectrum. By emphasising the use of existing resources, seeds are saved and shared at little to no cost.

    The focus on diversity within permaculture has a number of practical impacts for subsistence farmers. In addition to increasing accessibility of nutritious foods, it also allows for year round, seasonal and perennial harvests, helping to turn the ‘hungry season’ into a time of abundance. Additionally, crop diversity increases agricultural resilience in the face of climate change…

    The benefits of this diversity were demonstrated in food access and nutritional intake of the families. Permaculture households ranked higher in measures of food security and diet diversity, including consumption of micronutrient rich fruits and vegetables.

    The Kusamala Institute of Agriculture and Ecology, a local non-profit that promotes permaculture in Malawi, has had similar success. In partnership with the Red Soil Project , Kusamala is training staff members in implementing household permaculture gardens…

    When politicians speak of crop diversity they often define this as planting additional staple crops, such as soy and groundnuts, in addition to maize. However this does not address micronutrient deficiencies to the same extent that the diversified fruit and vegetable systems promoted in permaculture do.

    So the challenges remain to the adoption of permaculture in Malawi but it is clear that interest is slowly snowballing and with it, funding. As Cheatum says: ‘While it may take years for permaculture to spread through a community, it’s worth the investment.’ “

    The benefits of alternative farming methods
    Permaculture can help farmers produce more food using fewer resources through agroecology ā€“ a farming approach that mimics natural ecosystems

    “Small-scale farmers produce food for 70% of the global population. Yet, they are some of the world’s poorest and most food insecure people. Alternatives to conventional farming should be embraced to improve subsistence farmers’ yields and to ensure adequate food production for the growing global population. The stark reality, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute, is that the world needs to produce more food with fewer resources…

    Despite the potential of permaculture and agroecology, mainstream agriculture continues to focus on conventional techniques. There are a number of reasons why permaculture has not been more widely adopted, or even considered.

    First, the small-scale, grassroots nature of permaculture, while part of its strength, has contributed to its slow dissemination and minimal visibility.

    Second, permaculture is a design system, rather than an easily replicated model, which makes it more difficult to teach and adopt than a typical agriculture project. Further, permaculture challenges how governments and NGOs usually teach people to farm. Indigenous farming knowledge, like that used in permaculture, has been devalued and eroded with the imposition of monocropping and green revolution technologies.

    Third, scepticism remains over whether people’s food needs can be met using organic, labour intensive, small-scale farming. To date, there has not been enough rigorous research on permaculture to evaluate its impact, its application on a large scale, or to support its adoption. Academia has not seriously engaged with permaculture, and there are no companies with a profit incentive to research and disseminate it.

    Permaculture has thus remained marginal, and many see it as idealistic and impractical.

    The permaculture community can help encourage and support the use of permaculture, by raising its visibility, disseminating successful project models, and conducting more research.

    As Emily, a Malawian permaculture farmer explained to me: ‘There are some things we learn that open up our minds, and some things that are just taught.’ For Emily, permaculture lessons opened the possibility that there were other, more beneficial ways she could farm. Likewise, development project managers and policy decision-makers can use permaculture as a framework to open their thinking, and adopt new models that are needed in the context of current resource constraints and climate change. They should seek and evaluate alternative approaches like permaculture to effectively implement creative, efficient, and sustainable solutions in partnership with local populations.”

  7. High-Paying Trade Jobs Sit Empty, While High School Grads Line Up For University
    April 25, 2018
    Heard on All Things Considered

    https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2018/04/25/605092520/high-paying-trade-jobs-sit-empty-while-high-school-grads-line-up-for-university

    While a shortage of workers is pushing wages higher in the skilled trades, the financial return from a bachelor’s degree is softening, even as the price ā€” and the average debt into which it plunges students ā€” keeps going up.

    But high school graduates have been so effectively encouraged to get a bachelor’s that high-paid jobs requiring shorter and less expensive training are going unfilled. This affects those students and also poses a real threat to the economy.

    “Parents want success for their kids,” said Mike Clifton, who teaches machining at the Lake Washington Institute of Technology, about 20 miles from Seattle. “They get stuck on [four-year bachelor’s degrees], and they’re not seeing the shortage there is in tradespeople until they hire a plumber and have to write a check.”

    Construction, along with health care and personal care, will account for one-third of all new jobs through 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. There will also be a need for new plumbers and new electricians. And, as politicians debate a massive overhaul of the nation’s roads, bridges and airports, the U.S. Department of Education reports that there will be 68 percent more job openings in infrastructure-related fields in the next five years than there are people training to fill them.

    “There’s that perception of the bachelor’s degree being the American dream, the best bang for your buck,” said Kate Blosveren Kreamer, deputy executive director of Advance CTE, an association of state officials who work in career and technical education. “The challenge is that in many cases it’s become the fallback. People are going to college without a plan, without a career in mind, because the mindset in high school is just, ‘Go to college.’ “

  8. Despite So Much Winning, The Right Feels Like It’s Losing
    April 27, 2018
    Heard on All Things Considered

    https://www.npr.org/2018/04/27/606230683/despite-so-much-winning-the-right-feels-like-its-losing

    With Trump’s victory, Republicans hold more power than they have had in nearly a century. Conservatives have control of the House of Representatives, the Senate and the White House, and hold a majority of the country’s governorships. Conservatives also now have a majority on the Supreme Court, in no small part because of Trump’s election.

    But beyond politics, [said John Hawkins, the founder of Right Wing News, a Facebook group with more than 3 million followers], the average American conservative feels bombarded daily with disrespect.

    “He turns on a TV show where he’s insulted, and then he’s like, ‘well, maybe I’ll just unwind and watch an awards show’ ā€” the Oscars or something ā€” where he gets trashed all day long,” Hawkins said. “He goes to Twitter and he’s got some you know guy calling him an a-hole … this is sort of like a pervasive all-out attack if you’re a conservative. And it’s all the time sort of thing.”

    At the core of the problem for many American conservatives is a feeling that the culture war has been irrevocably lost to their ideological opponents.

    This feeling of losing the American culture war reflects polling of white, working-class Americans. A poll taken last year by the Public Religion Research Institute and The Atlantic showed 48 percent of them believe that “things have changed so much that I often feel like a stranger in my own country.”

    1. The right HAS been winning at the polling place, and HAS gained control of the government of this country, even though the D’s have had control of the White House a good bit of the time.

      And a hell of a big part of the explanation for this sorry scenario is that MILLIONS of liberal people who are well educated and make a great show of going around regularly pointing out how TOLERANT THEY are, and how much THEY respect other people and other cultures, spend EVEN MORE TIME badmouthing religious people, socially conservative people, white people, and especially poor white working class people.

      Well folks, even my DOG knows when he’s being talked DOWN, being scolded, being made fun of.

      My dog can’t vote, but people, even poor religious uneducated working class white people, can and DO VOTE, and they’re just like everybody else, when you get down to the nitty gritty of human behavior.

      Insult them, accuse them of being superstitious, ignorant, uncultured, I could go on all day, and they’re about as likely to vote for candidates like HRC as a typical well educated young liberal is to vote for Trump.

      People don’t really vote based on discrete facts such as whether a given law is a good one, or bad. They vote based on their PERCEPTIONS, their perceptions of who their friends and enemies are.

      So………. IF you’re a well educated liberal, as just about every body in this forum seems to be, you OUGHT to be smart enough to tone down the anti conservative bad mouth rhetoric, and think a little about the candidates you support in primaries, and actually show a little respect and consideration for other people’s VALUES and CULTURE, which you generally do, so long as such people live outside the USA.

      IF YOU WANT TO WIN, I mean.

      If you enjoy preening your feathers for your friends more than you want to win, by all means.. continue as usual. Nominate another candidate for president who is loathed and despised by a SUBSTANTIAL part of the voting public before the first primary. Be sure he or she makes wooden Al Gore look like a Reagan or BILL Clinton, in terms of the common touch, in terms of being able to UNDERSTAND the mood of the country, and what motivates middle of the road voters.

      Control of the country is not ALL about the culture war, but it’s MOSTLY about the culture war, and the left resorted to the court system to get it’s way, too many times, rather than the ballot box.

      I AM NOT arguing that the changes sought by the leftish liberalish camp are good, or bad, although in the abstract, they ARE good, in my estimation. If two men, or two women, want to live together, that’s fine with me, I don’t believe in government control of our private lives, or government being any bigger than necessary.

      What I’m saying is that you should always be careful for what you wish for, because EVERYTHING has strings attached.

      The strings that were attached to the mostly COURT DRIVEN changes in our society over the last few decades include REPUBLICAN AND TRUMP type politicians controlling most of the government of this country, from dogcatcher to president.

      I’m talking like a COACH, trying to explain WHY things are the way they are.

      Fortunately cultural and demographic trends are such that it’s VERY likely the leftish liberalish wing of our political system will prevail long term, because the foot soldier core supporters of right wing business as usual are dying off fast, and their grandchildren are fast taking over at the polling places.

      Grandchildren that moved to town may still own their grandfathers’s guns, but they don’t have much opportunity to hunt and shoot, and grow less fond of their Second Amendment rights. Younger guys who are from basically very conservative backgrounds no longer get upset, as a rule, when they see a white girl with a black guy, and may even date black girls. Even fuddy duddy old religious people like my parents got to the point years ago that they didn’t say anything when I came home with a future wife, not yet wed, and we shared my old bedroom, knowing we were already living together.

      Times change, and the hard core right is enjoying it’s all time historical high water status, but it won’t last……… and we can be rid of it sooner by being SMARTER when it comes to winning voters, ESPECIALLY middle of the road voters. They’re the ones that count, in terms of winning elections.

      1. Soā€¦ā€¦ā€¦. IF youā€™re a well educated liberal, as just about every body in this forum seems to be, you OUGHT to be smart enough to tone down the anti conservative bad mouth rhetoric,

        No, you are mistaken Mac. That con artist actually told you that he “could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and he would not lose any voters.” So you see, toning down the rhetoric would not do one bit of good. Anyone who would not be affected by that asshole shooting someone on Fifth Avenue would surely not be affected by anyone telling the truth about him. Those deeply indoctrinated in right wing stupidity can never be affected by the truth. Ignorance is set in their mind like cement and it can never be dislodged.

        One more very important point. We liberals are always very tolerant of other cultures. Rig Wing ignorance is not a culture, it is a cult. A cult based on ignorance. A cult based on God, Guns and Gays. They love God and Guns and hate Gays. They also hate other groups like Jews and Blacks. They are a cult based on ignorance.

        1. Hi Ron,

          You still REFUSE to get it. Or else I’m TOTALLY incapable of getting it across.

          The point I’m TRYING to make is that the important thing, politically, about bad mouthing is not who is RIGHT, and who is WRONG.

          When you go out of your way to badmouth people, you MOTIVATE them to ignore your arguments, you MOTIVATE them to vote for the opposition.

          I refuse to believe that you are too stupid to understand such a simple truth as this. It’s about culture war.

          If you just want to feel good, keep talking exactly as you do.

          If you want to win, you should look for common ground with people who are voting the other way, and do what you can to build bridges to them, and their communities.

          I’m talking like a COACH.

          No, toning down your bad mouth rhetoric won’t win over the hard core nincompoops who BELIEVE in Trump.

          BUT toning it down will enable the D party side to win over, and win BACK, some of the people who have abandoned the D’s over the last decade or two.

          The D’s need win or win back only a few voters, as few as three to five percent, to retake control of the federal government, maybe even less, and not many more than that to take control of a whole bunch of state and local governments.

          I have tried hard to get some right wingers I know who are technically literate to read this forum. They DO understand such issues as peak oil, and overshoot.

          But they refuse to read your forum because you and others, from their point of view, go out of your way to insult them, and look down on them.

          When you say ” One more very important point. We liberals are always very tolerant of other cultures.” …………. You have made it perfectly clear that if you get your way, the culture of roughly half of this country HAS TO GO.

          You frequently go out of your way to make fun of people like my deceased mother, and my still living Daddy.

          Basically when you say that, I can’t really think of any reply that FITS , other than BULLSHIT.

          Now my point is that if you want my Daddy’s VOTE, and the vote of tens of millions of other people like him, you MIGHT want to back off on referring to him as superstitious, prejudiced, homophobic, ignorant………..

          Now what’s more important to you? Winning back control of the government, by winning SOME of the votes of people like him who would vote Trump ( if he were still voting, his world has contracted as he approaches the century mark to the point that he no longer thinks or talks about the larger world…….. it’s down to old memories, and the birds outside the window, and the deer that sometimes pass thru the yard for him now) if he were still voting.

          He WOULD have listened to you, about single payer health care, about protecting the air and water, about making sure every child in this country had enough to eat………… if you had approached him RESPECTFULLY.

          He listened to me about these things, and he quit voting R… although he never started voting D.

          And let’s not forget that I consistently support such policies as clean air law, clean water law, renewable energy subsidies, single payer universal health care, and welfare support of people who really need it, especially every child in the country.

          But I’m not going to go around PRETENDING any such bullshit as that liberals are always tolerant of other cultures, any more than I will go around pretending that R politicians really give a damn about hungry kids or freezing old folks, or clean air and water and the future of the biosphere.

          I won’t PRETEND that HRC was ethically and judgementally qualified to be president.

          I won’t pretend that just because humans have a hypertrophied neocortex that their neocortex controls their behavior. It does not, as a general rule.

          All the evidence of which I am aware indicates our behavior is controlled at the mid brain level, at the level of the family, herd, and tribe.

          1. When you go out of your way to badmouth people, you MOTIVATE them to ignore your arguments, you MOTIVATE them to vote for the opposition.

            Hell Mac, I am just doing what 60% of the American people are doing, what 75% of the American press is doing and what 90% of the foreign press is doing. And you know what, it’s fucking fun. šŸ˜‰ And I cannot motivate any of those stupid right wingnuts to do anything. Trump could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and they would still vote for him. Dammit Mac, you must know my telling it like it really will not change one damn thing.

            If you want to win, you should look for common ground with people who are voting the other way, and do what you can to build bridges to them, and their communities.

            Fuck it, I am not looking to win. It just makes me feel a whole lot better if I do what I can to expose that stupid Trump for what he is. He is a misogynist, a narcissistic psychopath, a bully, a chronic liar, a racist, a homophobe and otherwise just an idiot.

            Harvard Psychologist Explains Trump Is ā€˜Dangerousā€™ Because Heā€™s Literally a Narcissistic Psychopath

            As his presidential campaign marches on, with seemingly no scandal or gaff harming him in the least, millions of sane Americans have been asking, in the words of Henry Alford of Vanity Fair: ā€œWhat exactly is wrong with this strange individual?ā€
            Now, science has finally answered that questionā€¦

            While there is no official clinical diagnosis of psychopathy, the textbook traits of it and related Anti Social Personality disorders like Narcissistic Personality Disorder and Sociopathy, are somewhat easy to spot once you know the signs.
            The failure for there to be an official way to diagnose these disorders is due more to the fact that the individuals who have these traits are adept at masking them, or giving the answers to questions that psychologists ā€œwantā€ to hear.
            Donald Trump is ā€œremarkably narcissistic,ā€ according developmental psychologist Howard Gardner, a professor at Harvard Graduate School of Education.
            ā€œTextbook narcissistic personality disorder,ā€ clinical psychologist Ben Michaelis explained.
            The Mayo Clinic explains ā€œNarcissistic personality disorder is a mental disorder in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for admiration and a lack of empathy for others. But behind this mask of ultraconfidence lies a fragile self-esteem thatā€™s vulnerable to the slightest criticism.ā€
            They add that ā€œa narcissistic personality disorder causes problems in many areas of life.ā€ The sufferer ā€œmay be generally unhappy and disappointed when youā€™re not given the special favors or admiration you believe you deserve.ā€

            Ahhh… dozens of articles like this appear every day. I love them all. And fuck winning friends and influencing people.

    2. This feeling of losing the American culture war reflects polling of white, working-class Americans. A poll taken last year by the Public Religion Research Institute and The Atlantic showed 48 percent of them believe that ā€œthings have changed so much that I often feel like a stranger in my own country.ā€

      Right, I guess we should all feel sorry for them! But not to worry, because the data show that non white, working-class Americans, still have it a whole lot worse than they do. You can thank the 1%, for all working class Americans being up shit’s creek. We are living in a very fast changing world of technological disruption! The past ain’t coming back. Anyways, what people feel, and actual reality, are often two very different things!

      “I give out when people talk about crime going up, but the numbers are definitely down. And if you go, ā€œThe numbers are downā€, they go, ā€œAhh, but the fear of crime is rising.ā€ Well, so fucking what? Zombies are at an all-time low level, but the fear of zombies could be incredibly high. It doesnā€™t mean you have to have government policies to deal with the fear of zombies.”
      Dara Oā€™Briain:

      1. Hi Fred,

        You obviously get it, just about all the time and in just about every respect.

        I hope you get it when I try to make the point that winning elections is first of all about winning FRIENDS.

        If you want the votes of the white working class, which without any shadow of a doubt DOES feel threatened, and imposed upon, then you must first of all approach these people in a friendly and respectful way.

        Otherwise you haven’t a prayer of winning their votes. And if you want to win back control of the country from the Trumpster types and the one percenters, well……

        YOU NEED THEIR VOTES.

        I never once in my life got a date with a girl whose values and culture I badmouthed, and I never closed a business deal with a person who loathed me for my cultural and political convictions.

        And over the years, which are now too many to think I will be around a WHOLE lot longer, I have been at various times a Republican, a Democrat, a long haired dope smoking flower child hippie with a big peace symbol around my neck, a straight laced business man in a tie , you name it………..

        If you want people to join you, socially, politically, economically, first of all, you make friends with them.

        Piss them off, insult them, scare them, and you haven’t a snowball’s chance on a red hot stove of getting their cooperation.

        The D establishment needs the cooperation of as few as three to five percent MORE voters to retake control of this country. Demographics and cultural and technical evolution virtually guarantee they WILL regain control……. after my generation is entirely gone, and the grandchildren’s generation comprises the bulk of voters.

        But regaining control could happen a LOT sooner.

        If the D establishment, the liberal establishment, plays the political game skillfully.

        1. I have often stated that I see the Remocrats and the Depublicans as opposite sides of the same coin. They are both mostly part of the senile, greedy corrupt old guard and need to all be put out to pasture the sooner the better!

          I’m totally convinced that only a whole new generation, with completely new world views, forming alternative political parties is the only way forward if there is to be any chance that some form of democracy is to survive. I’m most certainly not looking for any leadership to arise from the existing status quo! As they say, ‘That dog don’t hunt!’

          There are some glimmers of hope in a few countries around the world but the US is still mostly sound asleep and clinging to the past. A new generation will eventually seize power as the old fogies die off.

  9. While there’s a hard core of truth in the argument that the Republicans are the party of the one percent, unconcerned about the environment or anybody but the well to do, etc, there ARE some people in the party who are honest and respectable, according to ordinary American political norms, and more than a couple of them have been and are willing to put their political careers aside in order to tell it like it is about the Trump administration.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/still-trump-s-washington-some-retiring-republicans-go-rogue-n868791

    1. Note that those who speak out are not seeking re-election. The rational Republican is a dying breed, with Susan Collins being about the only one left in the US Senate in 2019.

      1. I would put Kasich in the category of a reasonable and dignified republican, who has been clear in his disdain for Trump from the start, and who is not retired.

        1. I agree with you, he’s not that straight forward about it in his interviews. He has to walk a fine line because he needs the Trump voters.

        2. Hickory,

          I was thinking of Senators, I believe Kasich is Governor of Ohio and his term ends in 2019. I agree he seems pretty reasonable especially compared to Trump.

  10. Meanwhile in the rest of the world we have more news. This just in! We have some global competition for the largest oceanic dead zones…

    http://www.uea.ac.uk/about/-/growing-dead-zone-confirmed-by-underwater-robots-in-the-gulf-of-oman

    Growing ā€˜dead zoneā€™ confirmed by underwater robots

    New research from the University of East Anglia (UEA) has confirmed a dramatic decrease in oxygen in the Gulf of Oman part of the Arabian Sea. But the environmental disaster is worse than expected.

    The ā€˜dead zoneā€™ was confirmed by underwater robots called Seagliders ā€“ which were able to collect data in areas of water previously inaccessible due to the piracy and geopolitical tensions.

    The robots are about the same size as a small human diver, but can reach depths of 1000 metres and travel the ocean for months, covering thousands of kilometres.

    Two gliders were deployed in the Gulf of Oman for eight months. They communicated by satellite to build an underwater picture of oxygen levels, and the ocean mechanics that transport oxygen from one area to another.

    Where they expected some oxygen, they found an area larger than Scotland with almost no oxygen left.

    The research was led by Dr Bastien Queste from UEAā€™s School of Environmental Sciences, in collaboration with Omanā€™s Sultan Qaboos University.

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2017GL076666

    Research Letter
    Physical controls on oxygen distribution and denitrification potential in the north west Arabian Sea
    B. Y. Queste C. Vic K. J. Heywood S. A. Piontkovski

    Abstract

    At suboxic oxygen concentrations, key biogeochemical cycles change and denitrification becomes the dominant remineralization pathway. Earth system models predict oxygen loss across most ocean basins in the next century; oxygen minimum zones near suboxia may become suboxic and therefore denitrifying. Using an ocean glider survey and historical data, we show oxygen loss in the Gulf of Oman (from 6ā€12 to < 2 Ī¼mol kgā€1) not represented in climatologies. Because of the nonā€linearity between denitrification and oxygen concentration, resolutions of current Earth system models are too coarse to accurately estimate denitrification. We develop a novel physical proxy for oxygen from the glider data and use a high resolution physical model to show eddy stirring of oxygen across the Gulf of Oman. We use the model to investigate spatial and seasonal differences in the ratio of oxic and suboxic water across the Gulf of Oman and waters exported to the wider Arabian Sea.

    Side note: It is because of a constant stream of data and published scientific papers such as this, that I really don’t find the political news from the US or around the world all that interesting or relevant anymore. You can’t deny physics, Chemistry and ecological damage for ever. Sooner or later reality will hit everyone upside the head!

    To steal from Lincoln ā€œYou can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.ā€

    BUT!!

    “For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled.”
    Richard Feynman

  11. Topic: Stellar Main sequence being used to determine potential climate change effects

    The “truth” and the reality of an upcoming solar minimum. Dan Lubin gives a great seminar on solar variability, the Maunder Minimum and how we might determine the actual chance of a “cool sun” happening this century. He also discusses some “bad science” published in Nature and how he is going to use a more thorough and not cherry picked approach to obtain a more realistic idea of the probability of a similar reduced solar output event occurring. Early modeling of a new Maunder Minimum event during global warming shows some interesting and disturbing results.
    The original talk
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrLJjOfI5E0&t=74s

    A later paper where Maunder Minima candidates are selected and chosen for longer term photometric studies.
    FREQUENCY OF MAUNDER MINIMUM EVENTS IN SOLAR-TYPE STARS INFERRED FROM ACTIVITY AND METALLICITY OBSERVATIONS
    If we use the quiet-Sun threshold S < 0.156, then the canonical 70 yr duration of this historical MM suggests a 1/630 chance in any given year of entering an equivalent new grand minimum. We are now ~300 yr after the end of the last MM, and the probability of not entering another MM at present is 0.62. This probability decreases to 0.58 by the year 2050 and to 0.54 by 2100.

    http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2041-8205/747/2/L32/meta

    Early modeling of an new MM event appears to enhance the loss of the AMOC and move the Jet Stream even further south, cooling Europe, heating Greenland and Alaska, but also cooling the eastern half of the US right down into the Gulf Stream. It would not halt global warming, slow it down some, but the possibility of enhancing the ocean current shifts and Jet Stream shifts that seem to already be in progress could cause climate chaos.
    However, that was an early model and probably are not very valid.

  12. The crushing of nature to build PV a farm. Part of the Pine Barrens will fall so people may slide and slam around for amusement. Should the natural ecosystem be destroyed to provide PV power for any reason? Isn’t that what the FF industry and other development does? Something we will come across more and more as poor judgment complements the growth of PV.

    https://www.jerseyshoreonline.com/jackson/great-adventure-settles-dispute-over-worlds-first-solar-powered-theme-park/

    2. Should the natural ecosystem be destroyed to provide PV power for any reason? Isnā€™t that what the FF industry and other development does? Something we will come across more and more as poor judgment complements the growth of PV.

      Yes, so it has come to pass, that exercising poor judgement by destroying ecosystems to provide power and all that we take for granted with our modern conveniences is precisely what has been happening since before the dawn of agriculture, throughout the entire history of all the rises and falls of the various civilizations around the globe, the so called Age of Reason, or the Enlightenment which led up to much of the science and technology of the industrial revolution leading into the present times.

      It has a lot more to do with things like political and economic ideologies, tribalism, religious indoctrination, a false notion that humans are superior to everything else in nature, a sense of entitlement, greed, ignorance, etc, etc… than it does with any particular technology or its implementation.

      Today we know well the harm caused to ecosystems by fossil fuels, deforestation, mining, overconsumption of resources, ever increasing human populations with the associated rising ecological footprint. Humanity has been in denial of reality for a few thousand years mostly as a consequence of the spread of religions such as Christianity, Islam and Judaism.

      Genesis 1:28
      King James Bible
      And God blessed them, and God said unto them, Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it: and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth.

      Just because PV is a decidedly superior and more environmentally benign technology than any and all forms of fossil fuels, doesn’t for a moment mean that most humans alive today are any wiser or less tribal now than they were a 100,000 years ago. And just wait and see what environmental devastation 11 billion of them, going about their daily lives, will wreak upon the few remaining natural ecosystems.

      Of course there’s always the possibility of the rise of a new civilization of exclusively permaculture practicing, anarchist Buddhist monks, who eschew all the carnal pleasures and creature comforts of industrial civilization… but I wouldn’t bet on it. šŸ˜‰

      Cheers!

      1. Creation was an experiment:
        My lords, He is making animals. Will it please you to come and see?”

        They went, they saw, and were perplexed. Deeply perplexed — and the Creator noticed it, and said, “Ask. I will answer.”

        “Divine One,” said Satan, making obeisance, “what are they for?”

        “They are an experiment in Morals and Conduct. Observe them, and
        be instructed.”
        There were thousands of them. They were full of activities. Busy, all busy — mainly in persecuting each other. Satan remarked — after examining one of them through a powerful microscope: “This large beast is killing weaker animals, Divine One.”

        “The tiger — yes. The law of his nature is ferocity. The law of his nature is the Law of God. He cannot disobey it.”

        “Then in obeying it he commits no offense, Divine One?”

        “No, he is blameless.”

        “This other creature, here, is timid, Divine One, and suffers death without resisting.”

        “The rabbit — yes. He is without courage. It is the law of his nature — the Law of God. He must obey it.”

        “Then he cannot honorably be required to go counter to his nature and resist, Divine One?”

        “No. No creature can be honorably required to go counter to the law of his nature — the Law of God.”

        After a long time and many questions, Satan said, “The spider kills the fly, and eats it; the bird kills the spider and eats it; the wildcat kills the goose; the — well, they all kill each other. It is murder all along the line. Here are countless multitudes of creatures, and they all kill, kill, kill, they are all murderers. And they are not to blame, Divine One?”

        “They are not to blame. It is the law of their nature. And always the law of nature is the Law of God. Now — observe — behold! A new creature — and the masterpiece — Man!”

        Men, women, children, they came swarming in flocks, in droves, in millions.

        “What shall you do with them, Divine One?”

        “Put into each individual, in differing shades and degrees, all the various Moral Qualities, in mass, that have been distributed, a single distinguishing characteristic at a time, among the nonspeaking animal world — courage, cowardice, ferocity, gentleness, fairness, justice, cunning, treachery, magnanimity, cruelty, malice, malignity, lust, mercy, pity, purity, selfishness, sweetness, honor, love, hate, baseness, nobility, loyalty, falsity, veracity, untruthfulness — each human being shall have all of these in him, and they will constitute his nature. In some, there will be high and fine characteristics which will submerge the evil ones, and those will be called good men; in others the evil characteristics will have dominion, and those will be called bad men. Observe — behold — they vanish!”

        “Whither are they gone, Divine One?”

        “To the earth — they and all their fellow animals.”

        “What is the earth?”

        “A small globe I made, a time, two times and a half ago. You saw it, but did not notice it in the explosion of worlds and suns that sprayed from my hand. Man is an experiment, the other animals are another experiment. Time will show whether they were worth the trouble. The exhibition is over; you may take your leave, my lords.”

        At a later time on Earth in the system of Sol, the Milky Way”
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVbb6pZLfzU

        Not long after that something went right with the churches.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBBlRB1HH2g

        But don’t let life get you down Mr. Fred.

        Whenever life gets you down, Mrs. Brown,
        And things seem hard or tough,
        And people are stupid, obnoxious or daft,
        (sung)
        And you feel that you’ve had quite eno-o-o-o-o-ough,

        Just remember that you’re standing on a planet that’s evolving
        And revolving at 900 miles an hour.
        It’s orbiting at 19 miles a second, so it’s reckoned,
        The sun that is the source of all our power.
        Now the sun, and you and me, and all the stars that we can see,
        Are moving at a million miles a day,
        In the outer spiral arm, at 40,000 miles an hour,
        Of a galaxy we call the Milky Way.

        Our galaxy itself contains a hundred billion stars;
        It’s a hundred thousand light-years side to side;
        It bulges in the middle sixteen thousand light-years thick,
        But out by us it’s just three thousand light-years wide.
        We’re thirty thousand light-years from Galactic Central Point,
        We go ’round every two hundred million years;
        And our galaxy itself is one of millions of billions
        In this amazing and expanding universe.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yq4uCWtQE24

        It could be worse so, Always Look on the Bright Side of Life.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJUhlRoBL8M

        Feel better now? Cheaper than a psychiatrist.

        1. What weā€™re doing is potentially erasing 40 to 45 million years of mammal body-size evolution in a very short period of time.

          1. Wow, way over the top. I wouldn’t give up on the mammals.

            Maybe this will help you.
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1WomfhjyVM

            Feel better now?

            Possibly we just need to make a few laws as to where power systems can be placed? No need to go all apocalyptic. Most of the big mammals were gone long before the pyramids showed up. It wasn’t industry or civilization that killed them.

            2. Nahhh, it was us again. Apparently earth life is not adaptable to human intelligence even at the primitive level.

              The mice are still experimenting and in fact we have common ancestors. It’s all one big family, too bad the Lizzie Borden of animals had to show up.

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wlO-J0v9ZY

        2. After a long time and many questions, Satan said, ā€œThe spider kills the fly, and eats it; the bird kills the spider and eats it; the wildcat kills the goose; the ā€” well, they all kill each other. It is murder all along the line. Here are countless multitudes of creatures, and they all kill, kill, kill, they are all murderers. And they are not to blame, Divine One?ā€

          Indeed, but, then all the scavengers, insects, worms, the detrivores, the fungi and the bacteria all feed on what remains of the carcasses of the entire chain of organisms when they die, breaking them down into their constituent basic elements so that the plants can then absorb the newly available nutrients and use them in conjunction with the glucose they produce by taking in carbon during photosynthesis thus becoming food for the herbivores such as the rabbits so they may once again feed and provide energy to the foxes in a never ending complex cyclical food and energy web where nothing is ever wasted.

          I think Satan must have slept through that divine lecture on the Krebs Cycle so he didn’t pass biochemistry and ecosystem thermodynamics 101. Then again, maybe he just pretended to snooze through it and did get it and just made it his number one mission, to make sure that humans remained deliberately and willfully ignorant of all these natural processes thereby becoming active corrupters and destroyers of ecosytems and creating a true hell on earth.

          Which might even make some biblical sense! “Eve, have some apple juice out of this plastic bottle, made from fossil sunshine, courtesy of the science of organic chemistry”, hissed the snake hiding in the tree of knowledge… šŸ˜‰

          Satan doesn’t want humans to know how to use locally available, biodegradable non petrochemical based polymers, such as chitin together with 3D printing technology in a Circular Economic system, modeled on how ecosystems function…

          Cheers!

          1. “Satan doesnā€™t want humans to know how to use locally available, biodegradable non petrochemical based polymers, such as chitin together with 3D printing technology in a Circular Economic system, modeled on how ecosystems function”
            So Satan is a right wing republican businessman? ROFL

            Nahhh, we don’t need Satan, just our God given abilities.
            Every man in the earth possesses some share of intellect, large or small; and be it large or be it small he takes pride in it. Also his heart swells at mention of the names of the majestic intellectual chiefs of his race, and he loves the tale of their splendid achievements. For he is of their blood, and in honoring themselves they have honored him. Lo, what the mind of man can do! he cries, and calls the roll of the illustrious of all ages; and points to the imperishable literatures they have given to the world, and the mechanical wonders they have invented, and the glories wherewith they have clothed science and the arts; and to them he uncovers as to kings, and gives to them the profoundest homage, and the sincerest, his exultant heart can furnish — thus exalting intellect above all things else in the world, and enthroning it there under the arching skies in a supremacy unapproachable. And then he contrived a heaven that hasn’t a rag of intellectuality in it anywhere!

      2. Fred said”Of course thereā€™s always the possibility of the rise of a new civilization of exclusively permaculture practicing, anarchist Buddhist monks, who eschew all the carnal pleasures and creature comforts of industrial civilization”

        Anarchist Buddhist Monk goes to town for a drink:
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7YDcLP2DeY

  13. Manufactured and/or Imaginary Dichotomy of The Fossil Fuel and Alternative Energy Industries?

    “Should the natural ecosystem be destroyed to provide PV power for any reason? Isnā€™t that what the FF industry and other development does?” ~ GoneFishing

    Review:

    ā€œ ā€˜According to the World Bank, NOCs accounted for 75% global oil production and controlled 90% of proven oil reserves in 2010ā€¦ā€™ ~ Wikipedia

    Shell CEO: Solar Energy To Be Backbone Of Worldā€™s Energy Systemā€¦

    Big Oil Leads in Innovations and Renewable Energyā€¦

    The Greenest Oil Companies In The World…

    Total ā€“ Investing In Solarā€¦

    Statoil ā€“ Placing Its Bet On Wind…

    Myth: U.S. oil companies have refused to invest in alternative energy and other clean technologies…

    Are oil companies promoting alternative energy?…

    When renewables meet the oil and gas industry, opposites attract…

    Difficult to invest in green energy in Canada without Big Oil…

    Big Oil To Invest In Renewable Energyā€¦ā€ ~ Caelan MacIntyre

    1. It’s real simple. For better or for worse, like it or not, today’s oil companies are for profit businesses that exist within the context of the current global economic system.
      As such they will invest their profits where they think they will eventually see a return for their shareholders. Oil and gas are becoming less profitable and solar and wind more profitable. For any business invested in providing energy it is therefore a no brainer to invest in alternatives to fossil fuels, if for no other reason than to hedge their bets by spreading a few eggs into other baskets.

      1. That’s good, Fred. I grade you 70% on this comment.

        (Sometime down the line, Fred may grade me on one of my own comments, unless he reads this part. He may then be unsure if he should or not, since it’s my hypothesis and he may not like the idea of being the subject of any behavioral hypothesis of mine.) šŸ˜€

  14. LEITNER Ropeways Builds New Trebević Cable Car in Sarajevo

    “After an absence of nearly three decades, an aerial ropeway has finally returned to Sarajevoā€™s famous Trebević mountain. The new 10-passenger cable car, built by LEITNER ropeways, carries visitors to the summit (1,160m) from the old city centre in just seven minutes and fifteen seconds.

    The state-of-the-art aerial lift, designed with LEITNERā€™s DirectDrive system, can transport up to 1,200 passengers per hour per direction onboard its 33 cabins.”

    Green Gondolas: Energy Neutral, Solar Powered Aerial Ropeway

    “As gondolas experience tremendous growth in the urban and recreational transport market, many decision-makers are now beginning to realize that ropeways are amongst the worldā€™s most sustainable forms of transport.

    For instance, not only are gondolas able to create direct environmental benefits by producing less carbon emissions per passenger kilometre than trams and buses (under the right conditions of course), their electrical power consumption systems can reduce the amount of point source pollutants that are released locally. In the case of the Mexicable, operators estimated that 5,800 cars were removed from neighbourhood roads while 17,400 tons of carbon emissions were eliminated.

    While sustainable practices are almost always built into all cable car projects, the Staubern Ropeway (German: Bergbahn Staubern) is expected to take ecological stewardship to a whole new level…”

  15. An aerial gondola connecting Manhattan to Governors Island may be in the works

    “A plan to create an aerial gondola between Manhattan and Governors Island might be in the works, Crainā€™s reports… Crainā€™s has learned from its sources that the cityā€™s Economic Development Corporation has hired engineering firm AECOM to study the feasibility of building an aerial gondola that would connect the two islands.

    Itā€™s not the first time such an idea has been proposed; Architect Santiago Calatrava came up with the same idea more than a decade ago… This latest revelation follows news that the trust managing Governors Island is looking to rezone it to allow for more development, and potential year round programming.

    Crainā€™s posits that the gondola study might be in anticipation of the changes that will come to the island once the rezoning proposal is approved.”

    The future of Houston traffic: Could gondolas help improve traffic in Montrose?

    “Instead of more freeways, one group of young designers from architecture firm Gensler thinks gondolas could help improve traffic. The team suggests using a sky tram system, much like one you would see at a ski resort, between Shepherd and Westheimer.

    ‘…if the ground level becomes more pedestrian orientated, we can lift the transportation up to a higher plane, which is how we started thinking of the gondola system’, Jong Kim of Gensler’s ByDesign Group said.

    Jong and his team envision an automated multi-speed system, that would move travelers between 5 to 25 miles per hour, with stations a quarter mile apart.

    The team plan also includes a total removal of car traffic from the lower Westheimer corridor and the addition of more public spaces.

    ‘As a society, as a city, we have to become more dependent on public transportation such as buses and trains and even carpooling walking. It is with these strategies that we can relieve the stress of traffic and lack of public spaces in urban centers’, Jong said.

    The idea is not that far-fetched. About a dozen U.S. cities are considering gondola systems, and Portland’s Aerial Tram has been around for a decade.”

    Commuter Gondolas Are Coming to America. Probably. Maybe?

    “Pity the American gondola. First, thereā€™s the name, more likely to evoke amiable Italians in stripes than aerial transport. Try distinguishing it from an aerial tramway, which travels between two fixed stations instead of many, or a ropeway, a catch-all term for cars that fly. Gondolas’ associations lean ski resort rather than commute.

    No wonder designers who have proposed gondolas as an urban transit solution have met a mix of fanged skepticism and derision. ‘I have definitely heard from some citizens that the very notion of a gondola is too ridiculous to even be considered’, Christopher Slatt, the chairman of the Arlington County, Virginiaā€™s Transportation Commission, told the Wall Street Journal this summer. ‘Why give transit critics ammunition by advancing something that may turn out to be a waste of time and effort?’

    And yet, the soaring form of transit is actually on the (wait for it) upswing.“

    1. visualization of gondola images of LA, California (right) and Austin, Texas (left)

      1. LOL! Fred does not sit on a paddle board facing backwards, he sits looking forward on a kayak… different animal altogether.

  16. Why we should bulldoze the business school
    By Martin Parker

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/apr/27/bulldoze-the-business-school

    Most business schools exist as parts of universities, and universities are generally understood as institutions with responsibilities to the societies they serve. Why then do we assume that degree courses in business should only teach one form of organisation ā€“ capitalism ā€“ as if that were the only way in which human life could be arranged?

    The sort of world that is being produced by the market managerialism that the business school sells is not a pleasant one. Itā€™s a sort of utopia for the wealthy and powerful, a group that the students are encouraged to imagine themselves joining, but such privilege is bought at a very high cost, resulting in environmental catastrophe, resource wars and forced migration, inequality within and between countries, the encouragement of hyper-consumption as well as persistently anti-democratic practices at work.

    Selling the business school works by ignoring these problems, or by mentioning them as challenges and then ignoring them in the practices of teaching and research. If we want to be able to respond to the challenges that face human life on this planet, then we need to research and teach about as many different forms of organising as we are able to collectively imagine. For us to assume that global capitalism can continue as it is means to assume a path to destruction. So if we are going to move away from business as usual, then we also need to radically reimagine the business school as usual. And this means more than pious murmurings about corporate social responsibility. It means doing away with what we have, and starting again.

  17. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-wildfires-triggered-mega-thunderstorm-with-volcano-like-effects-1.4635569

    B.C. wildfires triggered mega thunderstorm with volcano-like effects
    ‘This was the most significant fire-driven thunderstorm event in history,’ meteorologist says

    The only real comparison for what happened in B.C. on Aug. 12, 2017, would be a volcanic eruption.

    On that day, in the midst of the province’s record-breaking wildfire season, the heat from four fires triggered huge thunderstorms that sent smoke soaring into the stratosphere, eventually spreading through the entire Northern Hemisphere.

    Wildfire forecasts predict hot, dry conditions in B.C. this year
    It was the biggest so-called pyrocumulonimbus event ever observed, according to David Peterson, a meteorologist at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, Calif.

    Not so cool, eh?

    1. Planet Earth 6.0 is being downloaded.
      Planet Earth 5.0 will no longer be supported after 2030.

  18. Declining Coal Consumption

    The Gloabal Coal Consumption is declining, but why? It has the largest reserve and static range of all fossil fuels and still seems to be pretty cheap. I foundet no adequate answer in the internet, just the old story of replacing by renewable stuff.

    So what are the reasons for this decline? If there would be a shortage of oil the coal consumption would rise because you can substitute some oil consumption by coal?
    What am i missing?

    1. Karl- one big reason coal has declined is that Chinese and India people are having a very hard time breathing, and have started to put the brakes on coal a bit. Secondly, there is a large volume of Nat Gas available to buy at a competitive price. Third, new coal isn’t cheaper than utility scale wind and solar when deployed to the most favorable sites.

      An example of these trends is Texas, which over the past 10 yrs has canceled coal plants and deployed a lot of wind turbines- http://tpr.org/post/3-takeaways-unprecedented-texas-coal-plant-closures

    2. What am i missing?

      The fact that coal mines are now being transformed into tomato growing greenhouses…
      Have some green black fried tomatoes…

      https://nypost.com/2018/04/28/a-mountaintop-greenhouse-grows-in-coal-country/

      >A mountaintop greenhouse grows in coal country

      Webbā€™s goal is to hire 120 people in Kentucky and expand to 600 people and 160 acres with several greenhouses throughout central Appalachia, producing ā€œroughly 100 million pounds of tomatoes depending on what varieties we grow,ā€ he said.

      As he stands on a mountain flattened by coal production that will soon become an innovative breadbasket for the region, the poignancy of the moment isnā€™t lost on Webb. Soon he will start providing jobs where 10,000 of them have disappeared in the past decade.

      I kinda knew coal was in trouble back when that coal mine museum was in the news because it was being powered by solar but now that they are putting greenhouses where the mines used to be I think coal is officially dead and gone! šŸ˜‰

  21. I tried leaving Facebook. I couldnā€™t
    By Sarah Jeong @sarahjeong

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/28/17293056/facebook-deletefacebook-social-network-monopoly

    Of the twelve years since I created a Facebook account, I only spent one year truly off the platform. And during that year, I think I glimpsed what Facebook is, and what hold it has on us. For years, deriding the fripperies of social media has practically become a national pastime, an easy piece of snobbery. In the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal, a frequently heard response would be, ā€œWell, why not quit?ā€ or ā€œDonā€™t give your data to tech companies.ā€

    Itā€™s not quite so simple, given that Facebook has aimed (and in some cases, succeeded) to become indispensable. Even if you manage to live without it, Facebook may already have a ā€œshadow profileā€ of you based on metadata slurped up from your contacts who do have Facebook.

    But Facebook didnā€™t become ubiquitous because itā€™s useless or facile or time-wasting. In the year I was off Facebook, I thought hard about what I was missing.

    Facebook had replaced much of the emotional labor of social networking that consumed previous generations. We have forgotten (or perhaps never noticed) how many hours our parents spent keeping their address books up to date, knocking on doors to make sure everyone in the neighborhood was invited to the weekend BBQ, doing the rounds of phone calls with relatives, clipping out interesting newspaper articles and mailing them to a friend, putting together the cards for Valentineā€™s Day, Easter, Christmas, and more. We donā€™t think about what itā€™s like to carefully file business cards alphabetically in a Rolodex. People spent a lot of time on these sorts of things, once, because the less of that work you did, the less of a social network you had.

  22. Automotive suppliers have benefitted from strong fuel economy standards. Our survey shows that more suppliers are seeing the 2025 fuel economy standards as good for jobs and good for investment. The growth these companies are enjoying is at risk if the 2025 standards are rolled back. If there is one thing these companies need to thrive, itā€™s consistent, long-term targets.
    ā€”John Boesel, president and CEO of CALSTART

    Among the findings of the survey:

    84% of respondents agreed that the existing 2025 standards tend to encourage job growth at their companies. This is a 25% jump from a similar survey that Ricardo performed for CALSTART in 2016.

    95% of respondents agreed that more ambitious fuel economy standards tend to encourage more innovation and investment in the US; 22.7% strongly agreed.

    Respondents emphasized the need for regulatory certainty, which helps companies plan investments and strategies and ensures that fuel efficiency standards will serve as drivers for innovation.

    87.5% of the respondents (21 out of 25) advocated that it is important to start planning and setting standards now for beyond 2025. New technologies have long development lead times, so regulatory certainty is essential.

    82% of the respondents either agreed (52%) or strongly agreed (30%) with the statement, ā€œcompanies that are leaders in vehicle efficiency technology will be leaders more successful over the next 10-15 years.ā€

    http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/03/20180322-calstart.html

    1. The trick would be to get this type of intelligence into Republican policymaking. However the Repubs find more value in a different kind of truth:
      -People may agree on what is best or important but when they go to the showroom they want to buy what appeals to them and what appeals to them is a great big SUV. the dealers know this and the manufacturers know this and have the clout to affect policy.
      -People see who is pushing the policies that will provide cheap fuel for their SUVs and enable the dealer to provide them.

      1. People see who is pushing the policies that will provide cheap fuel for their SUVs and enable the dealer to provide them.

        Perhaps but the US is not world and in Europe and China EV sales are enjoying very robust growth. Many European countries have plans to end ICE car sales alltogether.Quite a few European cities already have plans to no longer allow SUVs into downtown metropolitan areas.

        https://www.forbes.com/sites/frankahrens/2017/12/22/2017-the-year-europe-got-serious-about-killing-the-internal-combustion-engine/#1081ea132ff0

        When we look back years from now, we may remember 2017 as the year that Europe got really serious about killing the internal combustion engine.

        This week, Franceā€™s parliament voted to ban all fossil fuel extraction in the country and all of its territories by 2040. The ban is largely symbolic ā€” France imports virtually all of its hydrocarbons and gets the vast majority of its energy from nuclear. But the French legislative action reflects Europeā€™s wider and concrete steps against gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles. France and other European nations are seeking to nudge ā€” or shove ā€” Europeā€™s car buyers toward electric and fuel cell vehicles by getting rid of oil-powered alternatives.

        https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/30/nissan-leaf-amazes-in-ev-sales-record-storm-europe-electric-car-sales-report/

        The European passenger plug-in car market hit unprecedented levels last month, beating a two-year old record (34,000 units in December 2015) by scoring over 40,000 registrations. Thatā€™s 41% growth compared to the same period last year, and pulls the year-to-date count to 87,000 deliveries (37% growth). It allowed the 2018 market share to date to reach 2% (2.2% in March).

        https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/29/2017-china-electric-car-sales-blow-world-water-baic-ec-series-superstar/

        Chinaā€™s EV Market Share Hits 3.3%,
        BAIC EC-Series = Superstar
        The rise and rise of the Chinese plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market is unstoppable, with yet another record performance in December. A total of 102,000 new passenger PEVs were registered last month, up 130% year over year. Yes, that was just December, and it pulled the year-to-date count to over 600,000 units, up 71% compared to 2016.

        Americans will follow suit, sooner or later.

        ā€œYou can always count on the Americans to do the right thing after they have exhausted all other options.ā€
        Winston Churchill

        1. GMā€™s absence from Geneva reflected the companyā€™s pivot away from Europe to China, the nation thatā€™s now dictating the types of vehicles the worldā€™s automakers must build. We may love our pickup trucks and V-8s, but China is demanding BEVs and autonomous capability, and when automakers contemplate a market that could be twice the size of Americaā€™s within the next decade, theyā€™re going to follow the money.

          In that context, GM appears to be well positioned. GM global product chief Mark Reuss has confirmed two BEV crossovers based on the Chevy Bolt platform will appear in the next 18 months. At least a further seven BEVsā€”and possibly as many as 18ā€”will be built on a new modular vehicle architecture and carry a 300-mile range as soon as 2023. And as weā€™ve seen with Cadillacā€™s Super Cruise, GM is aggressively pursuing autonomous capability.

          http://www.motortrend.com/news/all-change-are-americas-automakers-ready-the-big-picture/

      2. when they go to the showroom they want to buy what appeals to them and what appeals to them is a great big SUV.

        Marketing has a great deal to do with it – SUVs are in fashion, and very heavily marketed. Why?

        Because they’re much more profitable, in large part because of a $25k tariff on SUV imports into the US. That helps explain SUVs are more popular in the US than elsewhere. It helps explain why Ford is discontinuing sedans, while moving to hybrid SUVs.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_tax

        It’s not the free market: it’s classic regulatory capture, subsidies for car makers, and higher costs for consumers.

  23. Global solar investment pushes ahead of fossil fuels

    In 2017, the world invested in solar like never before, according to a new global trends report.
    Driven largely by China, global solar investment was $160.8 billion, up 18 percent on the year before.
    More than half of last yearā€™s solar investment came from China. Image: pixabay-2742305
    Harnessing energy from the sun to make electricity accounted for more than half (57 percent) of the $279.8 billion that was invested in renewables in 2017 and far outstripped the $103 billion invested in coal and gas generation.

    http://marketbusinessnews.com/global-solar-investment-pushes-ahead-of-fossil-fuels/177598/

  24. A New Lithium War Is About To Begin

    By James Stafford

    It’s the modern gold rush. Around the world, the most sought-after mineral isn’t a precious metal, nor is it oil and gas…it’s lithium.

    Lithium, or “white petroleum” as some call it, has become a crucial element in today’s high-tech economy.
    Demand for lithium is soaring, and producers are frantically searching for new sources of supply. Prices have doubled in the last two years, rising as high as $16,500 per ton.

    The biggest reason for the surge? The immense demand for lithium-ion batteries, needed to power electric vehicles (EV), cell phone and wind turbines. As the Wall Street Journal reported, the surge in demand has pushed lithium miners to new areas in search of rich deposits. Traditional production of lithium and lithium-ion batteries is concentrated in a few key areas, but with demand set to increase dramatically in the coming years, investors are searching for creative new ways to increase global supply. A boom in Canadian lithium mining is pushing companies like Nemaska Lithium (TSX: NMX) and Power Metals Corp. (TSXV: PWM.V) to tap new deposits of lithium.

    The fact that China is trying to corner the market has made the search for new deposits even more intense, as U.S. and European firms try to get around Chinese domination. For the last five years, the commodities world has focused on the epic showdown between OPEC and U.S. shale drillers for oil market share. But it’s the war over “white petroleum” that will dominate the next decade.

    http://321energy.com/editorials/oilprice/oilprice042618.html

    1. China is nowhere near cornering the market.

      https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21723451-three-south-american-countries-have-much-worlds-lithium-they-take-very-different

      Chile, Bolivia and Argentina own the Lithium reserves and they decide who mines it. They also decide how much is mined.

      https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/alb/ownership-summary

      Albemarle stock is held by several companies, I don’t see China all over that.

      With global production at 50,000 tonnes and global reserves at 14,000,000 tonnes and growing, there is no risk of shortage for a long time.

      https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-The-Lithium-Bubble-Set-To-Pop.html

  25. Well, tomorrow is May Day—
    (I’ll be having a heart operation)
    In most of the world, May Day is a day for workers to unite, but May Day is not recognized in the United States even though it originated here.
    “Solidarity across races and issues frightens the power structure. In 1894 President Grover Cleveland severed May Day from its roots by establishing Labor Day on the first Monday in September, after pressure to create a holiday for workers following the Pullman strike. Labor Day was recognized by unions before May Day. The US tried to further wipe May Day from the publicā€™s memory by President Dwight Eisenhower proclaiming ā€œLaw and Order Dayā€ on May 1, 1958.”

    1. “Iā€™ll be having a heart operation”

      Well Hightrekker, I didn’t realize you had one.

      By-pass, defibrillator, pacemaker, stint ?

      I wish you the best and a quick recovery

      1. Long story—
        Hole in heart chamber, from birth,
        Need a pro in Portland– Bend doesn’t have the talent.
        Leaving today.

        3. God speed. I will put you in my prayers for the operation to be a success and your recovery to be quick!

    4. Good luck Hightrekker…I pray you are blessed with good health following the operation.

    1. But drones can’t fly for very long before the battery runs out – 30 minutes is a typical maximum.

      So US telecoms giant AT&T is developing a large, helicopter-like drone known as the “Flying COW”, short for “Cell on Wings”. It is tethered to the ground by a cable that gives it power.

      This enables the drone stay in the air 24-hours-a-day at a maximum height of 168m (550ft).

      AT&T says it used Flying COW to provide emergency 4G coverage to Puerto Rico in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria in November. Each drone was able to cover an area measuring 36 sq km.

      Which does beg the question, after a disaster there often is no power generation from utilities, power lines might be down, roads and bridges might be out and getting access to gasoline or diesel for ICE generators could prove difficult. So those flying COWs sound more like Flying PIGS (Problematic Intermittent Ground Supply) with lipstick, to me…

      How about high flying kites if you absolutely must tether them to the ground…
      Maybe high a flying global network of solar powered blimps, drones and loon ballons that are more resilient and beyond the reach of most natural disasters to begin with might be a better way to go. You just gotta love ‘Loon Balloons’ over MAD COWS… šŸ˜‰

      https://www.airspacemag.com/flight-today/06_on2015-internet-from-above-180956600/

      Googleā€™s big idea is to use a few thousand Loon balloons to knit together a world-blanketing quilt of 4G connectivity. ā€œThe Loon is a great magic trick,ā€ says Vern Fotheringham, former CEO of the satellite internet company LeoSat LLC. ā€œGod bless ā€™em. They can populate the stratosphere with very intelligent balloonsā€¦. Can you do it? It looks like you can. Does it make good economic sense to do it? I have no idea.ā€

      On the other hand not pumping more CO2 into atmosphere might make even better economic sense in the first place…

      1. Weeeell, maybe some solar panels and some Lithium magic šŸ˜‰ But I do like the idea of a blimp instead of a cow.

        NAOM

  28. California blows through solar power, renewable energy output records

    “California blew through a series of peak solar and renewable energy generation records last week, showing not only the increasing potential of the state to run on renewable energy, but also the work remaining to be done.

    According to the California Independent System Operator (ISO), utility-scale solar generation reached 10,521 MW on Thursday April 26, as the first time it had surpassed 10.5 GW. On Saturday it peaked again 10,539 MW at 1:40 PM local time, a new record for the state.

    California also hit a new record for the instantaneous portion of demand met by renewable energy on Saturday at 73%, just 15 minutes before the solar record, with solar and wind alone meeting 64% of demand.”

    So much for those who say large amounts of renewables on the grid are going to cause serious problems!

    According to the web page at http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ at the time of this post (Tuesday the 1st. of May, 2018 at 17:05 BST) the UK was getting 21.50% of it’s electricity from Wind, 7.96% from Solar and 5.59% from Biomass. That’s more than a third of UK electricity coming from renewables. Cue Peter in 3, 2, 1 ……

  30. Poll: Republicans who think Trump is untruthful still approve of him
    by Andrew Arenge, John Lapinski and Ashley Tallevi

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/poll-republicans-who-think-trump-untruthful-still-approve-him-n870521?cid=public-rss_20180502

    Most Republicans who think President Donald Trump is loose with the truth still approve of the job he’s doing as president, a new NBC News|SurveyMonkey online poll shows.

    While 76 percent of Republicans believe Trump tells the truth all or most of the time, 22 percent say he tells the truth only some of the time or less. Among such Republicans, over half of them (56 percent) still approve of his work as president.

    Meanwhile, an overwhelming majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaners (94 percent) and three-quarters of independents (76 percent) believe the president tells the truth only some of the time or even less frequently. A majority of Americans overall ā€” 61 percent ā€” think Trump regularly has trouble telling the truth.

    Still, Trump’s current job approval is 45 percent, according to the survey ā€” which is tied with the highest rate of approval recorded by the NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll since he began his presidency.

    1. “76 percent of Republicans believe Trump tells the truth all or most of the time”
      Well, those 76% are acting either brainwashed, or braindead. Probably a combination. Very poor prospect for a functioning democracy and civil culture. I do readily admit that plenty of democratic leaning voters also are just as poor at ‘reality testing’.

  31. April 2018 was a rather chilly month over a considerable portion of northern North America. A cold air mass settled over much of northern North America in late March and remained there for a good part of April. Sault Ste. Marie set a monthly snowfall record for April with 27.4 inches of snow, all in the first 15 days of the month. The previous record was 25.2 inches.

    Here are temperature deviation data for 9 northern North American locations for April 2017 relative to the 1971-2000 averages for those locations:

    Location Temperature Deviation (F)
    Prudhoe Bay, AK +4.47
    Moosonee, Ontario -7.18
    Nome, AK +6.65
    Churchill, Manitoba -0.33
    Iqaluit, Nunavut +2.58
    Goose Bay, Newfoundland -2.68
    Yellowknife, Northwest Territories -2.67
    Sault Ste. Marie, MI -5.13
    Hibbing, MN -9.65
    Average -1.55

    Prudhoe Bay ended a string of exceptional monthly temperature deviations, although it was still +4.47oF relative to the 1971-2000 average for April. Here are monthly deviations relative to 1971-2000 for Nov. through March:

    Month Temperature Deviation (oF)
    Nov. 2017 +15.50
    Dec. 2017 +19.06
    Jan. 2018 +8.61
    Feb. 2018 +20.93
    March 2018 +14.71

    Here are temperature deviation data for 9 northern North American locations for January-April 2018 relative to the 1971-2000 averages for those locations:

    Location Temperature Deviation (F)
    Prudhoe Bay, AK +12.03
    Moosonee, Ontario -0.47
    Nome, AK +7.08
    Churchill, Manitoba +2.29
    Iqaluit, Nunavut +2.15
    Goose Bay, Newfoundland +1.13
    Yellowknife, Northwest Territories +2.37
    Sault Ste. Marie, MI +0.96
    Hibbing, MN -4.83
    Average +2.52

  32. Here is an attempt to correlate decadal changes in PDO and AMO to seasonal warm anomalies in the contiguous US. This appears to be another paper that tries to correlate data without taking into account a major energy modification factor that comes into play during the graphed period. This factor affects the PDO, AMO and continental US temperatures used in this study.
    See if you can figure our what is missing.

    Trends in seasonal warm anomalies across the contiguous United States: Contributions from natural climate variability
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-21817-9#Fig1

    BTW: Due to probable changes in this unstated factor I anticipate an even higher rate of global warming after 2023 than is predicted from obvious albedo and increased GHG changes.

  33. April 2018 was a rather chilly month over a considerable portion of northern North America.

    Um, how do you figure that from your data?
    Month Temperature Deviation (oF)
    Nov. 2017 +15.50
    Dec. 2017 +19.06
    Jan. 2018 +8.61
    Feb. 2018 +20.93
    March 2018 +14.71
    April 2018 +2.52

    1. Those numbers might even mean something if a range of variation was included.

      1. Yeah, as it stands, Monsieur Roger Blanchard, is just trolling us…

        1. Looks like Chilly Bean Bob just showed up to the village party.

        2. Fred,

          I have no idea what you are talking about. This is one month’s data, in the case of April. The last time these 9 locations had a negative average was Feb. 2015. Warm and cold air masses move around. It was the case that a cold air mass covered a significant portion of those 9 locations. It happens only occasionally based upon the data I’ve collected over the years. Once the NOAA data comes out I expect large areas over Europe and Asia to be well above average.

          Are you saying the publicly available data is incorrect?

          1. No, I’m saying your particular presentation of the public data doesn’t really tell us a whole lot about long term global climate trends.
            Tip of the hat to GF.

            1. Bullet Point Trafficking

              “(with a tip of the hat to Nick)” ~ Caelan MacIntyre

              “Tip of the hat to GF.” ~ Fred Magyar

              “…and there doesnā€™t appear to be any one magic-bullet form, although…” ~ Caelan MacIntyre

              “…that some magic bullet or another canā€™t solve. Personally, I donā€™t traffic in magic bullets and…” ~ Fred Magyar

      1. When the National Centers for Environmental Information (formerly operating under the more politically charged name, ā€œNational Climatic Data Centerā€) comes out with itā€™s April 2018 analysis, we will see dozens of communities experienced their coldest April ever, while many, many more will have experienced a top 5 coldest April.

        1. Strange Bob, how in a global climate that is getting warmer, there are still moments and locations of relative coolness. I thought it was going to just be warmer and warmer and warmer at every place and every moment. Now I’m seriously thinking about asking for my money back. Did you get a refund?

          1. I’m only defending Roger Blanchard’s accurate statement “April 2018 was a rather chilly month over a considerable portion of northern North America” against unreasonable ignorant attacks.

        2. It really was an April for the ages in most of the Central United States. Here are some other places which lived through the coldest April ever. These are only places where the records go back at least 100 years.

          April 2018, All-Time Coldest April
          Alpena, MI (101 years)
          Aurora, IL (127 years)
          Carthage, TN (108 years)
          Fond du Lac, WI (123 years)
          Houghton Lake, MI (100 years)
          Huron, SD (137 years)
          Marquette, MI (142 years)
          Mt. Pleasant, IA (117 years)
          Poplarville, MS (100 years)
          Spencer, IA (106 years)
          St. Cloud, MN (124 years)
          Texarkana, AR-TX (115 years)
          Waterloo, IA (122 years)
          Watertown, SD (119 years)

          Even in the large metro areas where heat islands complicate using historical records, the April 2018 cold was impressive enough to land inside the Top 5.

          April 2018
          Chicago, IL 4th coldest (146 years)
          Des Moines, IA 4th coldest (140 years)
          Grand Rapids, MI 4th coldest (125 years)
          Green Bay, WI 2nd coldest (122 years)
          Kansas City, MO 2nd coldest (128 years)
          Little Rock, AR 3rd coldest (139 years)
          Madison, WI 2nd coldest (141 years)
          Memphis, TN 2nd coldest (139 years)
          Milwaukee, WI 4th coldest (145 years)
          Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN 4th coldest (146 years)
          St. Louis, MO 5th coldest (144 years)
          Syracuse, NY 4th coldest (116 years)

          Source

          1. So? Your point? We can all access weather records if we want.

            Yes, record highs and lows for certain places are likely to occur when the system is being perturbed with increasing energy and changing latitudinal differentials.
            Was explained decades ago, here is a more up to date analysis. It explains that one side of the Jetstream has cold air and the other has warm air, nothing new just the deep stuck loops are new.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wOw_jDUNH8

            There is lots of info on the internet, keep learning.

            1. If you don’t like what a comment says, you could just scroll past rather than chastise the commentator.

            2. Or, If you don’t like that a comment posted on an open public forum sometimes elicits a response that points out its inherent weakeness, than don’t post comments on that forum! What’s good for the goose should be just as good for the gander, eh?

            5. To GoneFishing: I enjoy extreme weather, cold weather, and weather statistics. Such a widespread month long anomalous period of cold temperatures is unusual in this day and age and newsworthy for that reason alone. I’m not trying to analyze why this event occurred, just pointing out the factual nature of the event to those in the affected areas who will be interested to know they lived through one of the coldest Aprils on record, if not the coldest April on record. I apologize for violating site rules.

            6. 25 years ago and then a few years later it was 20 below here for long periods in the winter, a place that generally bottomed out at zero in the winter. A decade later then a few years later it was hitting 10 and 15 below zero in the winter. In between, lakes did not even freeze over or only thin skinned for short times. Hot, hot,cold, hot, hot, cold. More hot than cold.
              Variations and changes are the norm.
              Heat waves and cold wave transients are part of the general weather chaos being stirred up by global warming.
              Learn about it. We can see the local temperature anomalies around the globe every day with the click of a button now. Takes a minute, is all.

      2. Oftentimes a picture can say much more than words

        TRUE! Here’s a picture just for you! It says you’re a TROLL!
        .

        1. You’re trying to pass your graphic off as covering the same April ’18 time period as Bob’s, but magnifying the part of your graphic you didn’t magnify shows your graphic covers a 5 day period from December ’17. Lol. Climate change science has reached the point where nobody knows who’s trolling who anymore. šŸ˜†

          1. Youā€™re trying to pass your graphic off as covering the same April ā€™18 time period as Bobā€™s,

            No moron, I’m not a climate scientist and I’m not trying to do climate science with my graphic at all. I’m just making a point with it, that a small cold spot in the US, is not necessarily indicative of any GLOBAL cooling. And that a picture can say a lot indeed… It just has to be the full picture not a tiny cherry picked segment.

            Furthermore, as a graphic artist I was exercising artistic license and a bit of sarcasm, not publishing a peer reviewed paper in a climate science journal.

            Last but not least, if I or anyone else for that matter, wanted to take the time, they could easily find a graphic of global temperatures with the exact April 2018 time frame that Frisky posted, which would show pretty much the same thing! It’s a Jet Stream pattern thing, been happening for a few months, Google it!

            Now, get back under your damn bridge!

            1. Since we and the environment are essentially moving back in time, maybe the brains of many people are also polarized in a reverse direction. Has anyone done a study on brain polarity among the populations? šŸ™‚

              Maybe it’s a multi-decadal oscillation!

            2. There’s plenty of studies like this one.

              https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3779195/

              Determining the True Polarity and Amplitude of Synaptic Currents Underlying Gamma Oscillations of Local Field Potentials

              All you have to do is find some mechanism that conclusively links it to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation šŸ˜‰

              Now if you’ll please excuse me while I go howl at the moon and try to stem the rising tide in Miami…

      3. I can believe that map, because the whole month of April was very cold, here in Michigan. Now farmers will have to plant crops later then is the usual. The price of sugar will go up, if they can’t get all the sugarbeets in the ground in time, due to having frozen ground so late in the year.

        Regards,
        Ralph
        Cass Tech ā€™64

        1. Hi,

          I’m sitting here in Germany on a red spot of the world temperature map.
          We had in April temperatures as normally end of May. And in the mountains the snow melt is also 1 month earlier.

          When I look at the map there are a lot more red dots than blue – bad for freezing sitting on a blue spot. But we need a lot of rain, and soon – otherwise bad for crops, too!

        2. Yep, climate change brought to you by global warming which is a result of the greenhouse effect. Some hotter – lots of places – and a few cooler. Some wetter, some drier. Altogether a change. Down here, we have seen very warm to record warm temperatures, you are seeing the effect of a warming arctic spilling cold air south due to the reduction in temperature difference.

          NAOM

    1. Dennis.

      Would appreciate your thoughts on the TSLA conference call.

      I didnā€™t listen, but am reading some sharp criticism of Musk.

      Assuming you listened, what do you think?

  35. Air passenger numbers

    I flew between JFK and O’hare airport recently and was astounded by the queue of aircraft waiting to takeoff.
    I wondered what the growth in passenger numbers has been over the last few decades has been.

    The figures are truly staggering.
    I remember friends flying in 1970 to Spain, everyone knew about it because they were the only ones in the class to have every flown. In that year 310 million passenger flights were taken globally, today 3 airports handle that many people.

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.AIR.PSGR

    http://www.iata.org/pressroom/facts_figures/fact_sheets/Documents/fact-sheet-industry-facts.pdf

    Last year 4 billion passenger flights were taken.

    This year 4.3 billion are estimated to fly, a 14 fold increase. No wonder they cannot build runways and terminals quick enough.

    1. Jet fuel accounts for about 12 % of global transport energy consumption. I suppose 1/2 could easily be rolled back in crunch times.
      The growth is strong indicator of the global economic boom. From Zimbabwe to Mongolia, you can find busy airports.
      There are still seven wild animals out there, the rumor has it.

    2. https://www.flightradar24.com is a fun website. Shows real-time global air traffic. The sheer number of planes in the air at any given time, and where they’re coming from or going to, can be quite interesting.

  36. Interesting side note for the “we can’t feed the world” crowd:

    ā€œIn towns across Kansas, two- and three-year-old wheat sits under tarps beside full-to-the-brim grain elevators. Farmers wait in the hope that prices will riseā€”even just a little bitā€”before they sell.
    ‘Weā€™ve grown so much wheat weā€™ve dug ourselves into a hole after a run of good years,’ said Taylor. The state is a victim of its own agricultural success.ā€

    Farmers drove up production and by the magic of supply and demand, prices declined so low, farmers can’t recoup their operation expenses.

    https://newfoodeconomy.org/rural-kansas-depopulation-commodity-agriculture/

    Haven’t read the full one yet, only the teaser on twitter:
    https://twitter.com/NiNanjira/status/991927063249645568

    1. Hey Gerry, it’s all about capitalism. It’s about poverty. It’s about hungry children who don’t know where their next meal is coming from because they don’t have money to buy all that wheat that’s sitting under those tarps.

      11 Facts About World Hunger

      11.3% of the worldā€™s population is hungry. Thatā€™s roughly 805 million people who go undernourished on a daily basis, consuming less than the recommended 2,100 calories a day.
      The world produces enough food to feed all 7 billion people, but those who go hungry either do not have land to grow food or money to purchase it.
      Poverty is the principal cause of hunger. The causes of poverty include poor people’s lack of resources, an extremely unequal income distribution in the world and within specific countries, conflict, and hunger itself.
      In 2010, an estimated 7.6 million children ā€” more than 20,000 a day ā€” died. Poor nutrition plays a role in at least half of these deaths.
      Nearly 98% of worldwide hunger exists in underdeveloped countries.
      Almost 1 in every 15 children in developing countries dies before the age of 5, most of them from hunger-related causes.
      While hunger exists worldwide, 526 million hungry people live in Asia.
      Over a quarter of the world’s undernourished people live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Almost 1 in 4 people in this region is chronically hungry.
      When a mother is undernourished during pregnancy, the baby is often born undernourished, too. Every year, 17 million children are born this way due to a motherā€™s lack of nutrition before and during pregnancy.
      Similarly, women in hunger are so deficient of basic nutrients (like iron) that 315,000 die during childbirth from hemorrhaging every year.

      But not to worry, Gerry and friends are going to buy that excess wheat and distribute it to all the hungry children in the world. Yeah Right!

      1. Not sure what you’re implying or trying to accuse me of.

        Your ad hominem is not only misplaced, it makes you look bad, not me.

    1. I read that bikes can go on some gondolas used for public transport.

      BTW, Longtimber, might you have a recommendation for a good electric front-wheel hub for a mountain bike?

  38. Iā€™m bringing this over to the non-oil board because it belongs here.

    After thinking about it more, I am wrong to type that Fox, MSNBC and other biased media are doing a disservice. USA is a free country, with a free press. Absent crossing certain lines, press should say what they want. Needs to be that way.

    I guess I am just disappointed so many watch those religiously, to the point they cannot possibly consider other viewpoints.

    I watched MSNBC for about an hour. Constant harangue on Trump. I understand there are serious issues with Trump, but does MSNBC discuss anything but Trump? Keep in mind, Trumpā€™s primary goal is to be talked about by the media, no matter good or bad. That is how he was able to be elected, he got more free press than the rest of the R candidates combined. Sometimes wonder if MSNBC hosts understand this? Or maybe that is what the advertisers want.

    MSNBC really isnā€™t a news channel, it is a commentary channel.

    Fox acts like a news channel at times, it is just so skewed right that it is difficult to take it seriously. There is some news, but usually included is the spin.

    Someday this country might be able to focus more on what we have in common than what we donā€™t. And on what we donā€™t, usually be able to debate intelligently and rationally. Lastly, hopefully agree on some basic standards 99%+ of us can agree on.

    I wonā€™t hokd my breath. Canā€™t do it for that long.

    1. SS, I really don’t feel like thrashing this straw anymore. Trump is the worst thing that has ever happened to the USA but probably the best thing that has ever happened to the Democratic party. Now, most folks, not everyone mind you, but most folks, now see those stupid right wingers for what they are, Bible-thumping, flag waving, homophobic, racists. Trump has magnified that fact. Trump is their racist-in-chief.

      I am in favor of anyone for calling Trump and his supporters, both in Congress and in the media, for what they are.

      We are in a crisis situation. MSNBC and CNN are doing what they can to expose that ignorant sonofabitch for what he is. MSNBC and CNN are doing a great service to our nation and to democracy. And if you don’t think CNN is doing just as much as MSNBC, then you just haven’t been watching CNN.

      But the same can be said about ABC, CBS and NBC and even PBS. Surely you must realize by now that all the networks except FOX hates Trump. Is that not obvious?

      Hey, the mainstream media is not all that dumb. They know, they all know except Trump, that we elected a blooming idiot for president. And they all are telling us so. Hell, just watch late night TV on any network. They are all laughing at that very stupid idiot in the white house.

      SS, everyone in mainstream media are all on the same page. Well, everyone except FOX News and Sinclair Broadcasting. They are another story which I will not get into right now.

      1. Thank goodness that the press sees fit to go after any leader or public figure (Trump for example) who displays fascist tendencies, racist tendencies, affinity for dictatorship, attempts to curtail freedom of speech and a free press, and blatantly works against promoting a stable and civil democracy.

      2. Hi Ron,

        I think basically Shallow Sand sees MSNBC as being skewed to the left. I believe that observation is basically correct. He also clearly recognizes that FOX is skewed to the right, I don’t watch FOX much, but when I have watched it, looks like a mirror image of MSNBC.

        The major networks national news and PBS News hour seem relatively unbiased to me, and I believe Shallow sand has also said as much. I also don’t watch a lot of CNN, but their news programs that I have occasionally seen seem relatively unbiased.

        1. People who think like that are the problem and have fallen for the Republican narrative.

          MSNBC is skewed to the truth and facts. While FOX is skewed to lies and Republican propaganda.

          And by the way, CRC is trading at $32 today. You missed out since I showed you the opportunity ! That’s $12 more in less than two months ago. I’ve made enough off of it to buy a Tesla in that time. Your oil knowledge is money if you apply it.

        2. I think basically Shallow Sand sees MSNBC as being skewed to the left. I believe that observation is basically correct.

          MSNBC is basically skewed toward the truth. That should be obvious to any rational person.

          I donā€™t watch FOX much, but when I have watched it, looks like a mirror image of MSNBC.

          You know, I think you are correct here. FOX news is all about lies and very stupid conspiracy theories. MSNBC is all about truth and debunking stupid conspiracy theories. Yes, yes, I would say MSNBC is the exact opposite of FOX, a mirror image. I must agree with you on that point. And it speaks well of you Dennis, to recognize that fact.

          The major networks national news and PBS News hour seem relatively unbiased to me, and I believe Shallow sand has also said as much. I also donā€™t watch a lot of CNN, but their news programs that I have occasionally seen seem relatively unbiased.

          Oh good gravy, now you have gone off the deep end. Have you ever watched the late night shows like “Jimmy Kimmel Live” on ABC, or “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” on CBS, or “The Tonight Show” with Jimmy Fallon on NBC, or “Late Night with Seth Meyers” on NBC? They all, to the man, bash Trump in every possible way. And they are given carte blanch to do so by their networks. The reason they are all given carte blanch to bash Trump is the networks are sick and tired of Trump bashing them.

          Then there is “The View” on ABC and “The Daily Show” on Comedy Central. Then there is HBO with “Real Time with Bill Maher” or “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver”. And I could name many others on HBO or Comedy Central. There are legends of shows on all networks except Fox that bash trump and the rest of that ultra right establishment. And, this is very important, there are no comparable right wing shows on any network except FOX News channel, not one. No one praises Trump except Fox News.

          And as to their evening news programs, I think they all go out of their way to tell the truth. And to tell the truth is to automatically bash Trump. I know you may not catch that but if you watch them closely, the subtle truth they are trying to get across comes across loud and clear.

          And you think CNN is unbiased when it comes to Trump? Good God, man, where have you been the last two years. Have you ever watched “Anderson Cooper 360”? Or how about “The Lead with Jake Tapper”? Or I could go on and on with perhaps a dozen more. Why do you think Trump hates CNN so much. Why does he always refer to them as “Fake News”? I cannot believe you have even watched CNN in the last two years if you think they are unbiased about Trump. That statement, that they are relatively unbiased, is so far off base that I cannot continue.

          1. Unfortunately, all of what’s left of the media in the US are completely corporate controlled, there is only the establishment view – and its mostly just for show. They hired Megan Kelly at MSNBC, anyone really think they are liberal? Is Morning Joe Liberal? Oh sure, they take shots at Trump, but talk about spending 50 billion on free college is considered radical nonsense, but an extra 50 billion on the military is no problem. Yes, Fox seems to tell more lies, but for example, do you really think that Assad launched a gas attack on some rebels in Syria or was it all made up bs to keep us in the war because Trump said he wanted out?

            What are we down to now, 4? massive media conglomerates that control everything you see or hear in the US. None of whom would ever attack a sponsor. BTW, That’s a big problem for Tesla because they don’t advertise, so they are fair game, while Toyota, bmw, etc are off the hook.

  39. Envyā€™s hidden hand
    Namibian hunter-gatherers deride those who stand out. What does this tell us about why, and how, we care about fairness?

    “This research also revealed that the Ju/ā€™hoansi were able to make a good living from a sparse environment because they cared little for private property and, above all, were ā€˜fiercely egalitarianā€™… It showed that the Ju/ā€™hoansi had no formalised leadership institutions, no formal hierarchies; men and women enjoyed equal decision-making powers; children played largely noncompetitive games in mixed age groups; and the elderly, while treated with great affection, were not afforded any special status or privileges. This research also demonstrated how the Ju/ā€™hoansiā€™s ā€˜fierce egalitarianismā€™ underwrote their affluence… it… ensured that no-one bothered accumulating wealth and simultaneously enabled limited resources to flow organically through communities, helping to ensure that even in times of episodic scarcity everyone got more or less enough.

    There is no question that this dynamic was very effective. If a society is judged by its endurance over time, then this was almost certainly the most successful society in human history ā€“ and by a considerable margin. New genomic analyses suggest that the Ju/ā€™hoansi and their ancestors lived continuously in southern Africa from soon after modern H sapiens settled there, most likely around 200,000 years ago…

    As importantly, genome mutation-rate analyses suggest that the broader population group from which the Ju/ā€™hoansi descended, the Khoisan, were not only the largest population of H sapiens, but also did not suffer population declines to the same extent as other populations over the past 100,000 years…

    Ju/ā€™hoansi egalitarianism was not born of the ideological dogmatism that we associate with 20th-century Marxism or the starry-eyed idealism of New Age ā€˜communalismā€™. There was no manifesto of ā€˜primitive communismā€™. Rather, it was the organic outcome of interactions between people acting explicitly in their own self-interest in a highly individualistic society. This was because, among foraging Ju/ā€™hoansi, self-interest was always policed by its shadow, envy ā€“ which, in turn, ensured that everyone always got a fair share, and that those with the natural charisma and authority to ā€˜leadā€™ exercised it with great circumspection. This was best exemplified in the customary ā€˜insultingā€™ of the hunterā€™s meat.

    Skilled Ju/ā€™hoansi hunters needed a thick skin. For while a particularly spectacular kill was always cause for celebration, the hunter responsible was insulted rather than flattered.“

    1. In Japan they say “The tallest nail gets the hammer” i.e. it’s best not to stand out.

  40. “Lots of talk=mental masturbation…” ~ Hickory

    ā€œā€¦I have deliberately (and successfully) avoided having children. Not to say that I havenā€™t gone through the practice motions with some ladies many hundreds of timesā€¦ā€ ~ Hickory

    WRT the below quote and Hickory’s apparent ignorance where part of my own experience and approach is concerned, I’d suggest that they look into what I’ve already written hereon about it. Failing that, they could of course always do their own research and/or share their own experiences.

    In the mean time, I’ll offer, appropriately for Hickory, a flat image of ‘sauteed parsnips’ (possibly a little too dull for, or outside of, my taste– the real thing I mean– but who knows.)

    “Seriously Caelan, I like my parsnips sauteed up in butter. How about you?
    I could really use any advice you have about dealing with pocket gophers. Do you use traps, or poison?” ~ Hickory

  41. Japanese Joinery
    (4-minute video)

    Are Tesla Claims That Its Autopilot Reduces Crash Rates By Up To 40% Exaggerated?

    “Just when you thought Elon Musk has had enough headaches for one day, here comes Vertical Group’s Gordon Johnson with some more bad news for the flamethrower man…”

    “Musk Meltdown”: Tesla Tumbles After Elon Cuts Off Conference Call Question

    “Things for Tesla just went from bad to worse when in one of the most bizarre conference calls… Elon Musk unexpectedly and abruptly cut off the earnings call when he encountered a question he appeared to find ‘uncool’…

    At this point… the flamethrower man then gingerly pivoted into yet another non-sequitur, stating that ‘not being profitable is a good criticism that has been leveled at TSLA’ and would be even greater if Musk had some answer to it, then claiming that ‘moats are lame’ and what matters is the ‘pace of innovation’, however by this point the stock of Tesla was in freefall, sliding 5% after hours as increasingly more investors experienced a proverbial light bulb moment…”

    1. I would call such behavior, in the case of Tesla, a buying opportunity.

  42. Coming Soon to a Neighborhood Near You: The 6th Mass Extinction | Barry Sinervo |

    This talk describes the global evidence for climate change as the cause based on our decades-long global collaboration on lizards and frogs.

    Dr. Barry Sinervo leads a multinational research team of scientists, working from the equator to the polar regions. The UCSC professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology was recently awarded $2 million to study impacts of climate change on California ecosystems at the UC Natural Reserve System, the world’s largest system of university-administered natural reserves, featuring examples of most major California habitats.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6zzp60qE4s

    Take a look at the graph of number of families at 2:37, it appears as if we have been losing more families, for millions of years now, than in some previous mass extinctions before people came along. So we are the second calamity in a long term climate change calamity.

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