Production Projections – Page 3

STEO and Tight Oil Update, July 2023

07/26/202307/26/2023 D Coyne 228 Comments

The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early July. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.

This month we have actual EIA data for 2023Q1 which increases the annual rate of increase for the forecast period compared to last month by 600 kb/d, part of the reason is an 800 kb/d forecasted drop in output from Q1 to Q2 of 2023. If we use the 2023Q1 to 2024Q4 trend the annual rate of increase is 911 kb/d, about a 100 kb/d increase from last month’s estimate. The trend from 2022Q1 to 2024Q4 is similar at about 916 kb/d. If this forecast through 2024Q4 is roughly correct, I expect increases in output after 2024 will be considerably lower, I also think this STEO forecast is optimistic. Annual average output in 2022 was 80.74 Mb/d and increases to 81.4 Mb/d in 2023 and to 82.6 Mb/d in 2024. These annual averages are 0.25 Mb/d less in 2023 and similar for 2024 as last month’s estimates.

March 2023 Non-OPEC Oil Production Drops

07/12/202307/15/2023 Ovi 301 Comments

A post by Ovi

Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for Non-OPEC countries. Normally the charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics in the first week of the month. Unfortunately the EIA was not able to update the production information for March until today. Consequently the charts below are produced from a mixture of country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway and China and the July STEO and the International report. The International report was used to update the March production data.

Where STEO data was used, the ratio of C + C to All Liquids was calculated. The average from the last six months was used to project the March production numbers and extended to May in a few cases.

World oil production charts are found at the end of this post.

March Non-OPEC oil production dropped by 268 kb/d to 51,434 kb/d. The largest decreases came from the Russia, 300 kb/d and Brazil 146 kb/d.

STEO and Tight Oil Update, June 2023

06/26/202306/29/2023 D Coyne 297 Comments

The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early June. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, Tight Oil Report, and IEA Oil Market Outlook, May 2023

05/26/202305/26/2023 D Coyne 169 Comments

The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early May. The report that follows compares World Petroleum Liquids output from the STEO with estimates from OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) from May and the IEA’s Oil Market Report (OMR) from February 2023 with an update on World liquids output based on the summary of the May report with my estimate on quarterly output in 2023 based on the annual estimate for 2023 published in May 2023 and the quarterly numbers published in February 2023.

Non-OPEC’s December Oil Production Drops

04/11/202304/11/2023 Ovi 164 Comments

A guest post by Ovi

Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for Non-OPEC countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to December 2022. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few of these countries and the world. The US report has an expanded view beyond production by adding rig and frac spread charts.

December Non-OPEC oil production decreased by 317 kb/d to 50,784 kb/d. The largest decrease came from the US, 276 kb/d.