The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for December 2021 was published this past week. The last month reported in each of the charts that follow is November 2021 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In the charts that follow the blue line is monthly output and the red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.
A guest post by Ovi
Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to August 2021. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world.
For 2019 BOEM showed a large increase in remaining reserves of 1.3Gboe, 91% of it oil, from newly discovered oil with Appomattox/Vicksburg and Vito the largest contributors at over 400mmboe each, followed by Buckskin and Kaikias, which are fairly large multi-well tie-backs, and smaller, one or two well tie-backs of Blue Wing Olive, Constellation, Claibourne, Red Zinger and Stonefly. These discoveries were made with exploration wells between 2006 and 2016 but were only counted as reserves once firm development plans were put in place. Even given this the year in which BOEM includes the reserves is rather opaque and idiosyncratic, for example some of theses fields started production before 2018, and some developments, notably Kings Quay, are more advanced than Vito but are not included.
Other additions came from revisions to Thunder Horse, Atlantis, Mars-Ursa and Jack/St. Malo, which had major brownfield developments. The fields were not all added as discoveries or adjustments for 2019, but were spread over 2016 to 2019. Some other discoveries under development, such as Anchor, Whale and Ballymore, or in pre-FID studies, such as North Platte and Fort Sumter, will likewise be added against their discovery years as their estimates are finalised. Several of these projects are among the first to use new 20ksi wellhead equipment and it will be interesting to see what teething troubles are experienced.
The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for November 2021 was published this past week. The last month reported in each of the charts that follow is October 2021 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In the charts that follow the blue line is monthly output and the red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.
Overall Norwegian oil production peaked in 2000 but, thanks to the Johan Sverdrup discovery, it is heading for a secondary peak in the next couple of years. Phase I of the development started in 2019 and has design capacity of 440kboed (70kSm3/d) and Phase II is due in late 2022, raising the total capacity to 700kboed of which 535kbpd (85kSm3/d) is crude. The development uses predrilled wills over which the platforms are installed and tied-in, so ramp up was, for Phase I, and will be, for Phase II, rapid. To find a field this size in a mature basin (it is in the North Sea) is unusual, possibly unique so far in offshore oil developments.
For some years Troll has been the largest single oil producer, coming from horizontal oil wells exploiting the oil rim in one half of the field, but recently Troll III was started which produces from the gas cap above the rim, so oil production will now fall.
In the chart green bands are fields in the North Sea, blue-green those in the Norwegian Sea, and the couple of thin blue ones those in the Barents Sea. The 2021 values are only through July.
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