50 thoughts to “Open Thread Non- Petroleum, October 1, 2019”

    1. We think we can accurately predict the outcome of our actions, but we fail once again.
      I wonder how efficient these hybrids will be at spreading diseases. Scientists could have possibly made the scenario worse.

    2. This is another good example of how the media does a very poor job (sometimes intentionally for the purpose of spin or hype) of writing about science issues.
      If you read the original paper, the gist of the findings is considerable different than hyped report in “science alerts”. Additionally, the work in the original paper is being questioned-
      “Editor’s Note: readers are alerted that the conclusions of this paper are subject to criticisms that are being considered by editors. A further editorial response will follow the resolution of these issues.”

      bottom line- there was no ‘spectacular backfire’ with this experiment.

      1. They were hoping for a genetic solution to the problem.
        That did not work out.

      2. From the article
        “the new genetic hybrids may be even more resilient to future attempts to quell their numbers.”

        I suggest that that statement is what the article is referring to when it uses the word backfire. So, there MAY be a backfire; or maybe not. Certainly a failure as far as the hoped for solution is concerned. Click bait has been achieved.

    3. Now, think about those plans for geoengineering to combat global warming. Comforting?

      NAOM

      1. Hadn’t seen that – it will be interesting to see how the results hold up over time.
        As the climate warms, Dengue is making forays into the southern USA coastal states.

  2. Huge difference between the NW USA cold spot and Eastern USA heat

    This is part of the known climate dipole called the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern.

    With an interesting bit of signal processing shows that the PNA pattern is driven by an annual signal, generating a response that is variable from year-to-year. To see this, take the spectrum and fold it on itself as in the following diagram — the two sideband halves should align, which they do

        1. Thanks. And why do you think this is weird and not part of the natural pattern that you have already identified as PNA?

          It’s about as weird as an El Nino, meaning not weird at all.

          1. The weird part is the magnitude and duration of the anomaly is something you would more expect out of the teleconnections in winter or early spring, but not so much in early fall. Hence the major snowstorm that resulted in Montana was historic for the time of year.

            1. Its hard for me to fathom how the tribes like Cheyenne and Lakota managed to live in that climate zone, with essentially stone age technology. Hats off to them.

    1. Four years, 30 thousand emails and a corporate tax cut later. The hole is fubar larger. Where’s that cattlegate conspirators anyway ? Out picking the harvest before the first snow or manning the register along the highway.

        1. A lot of cash on the sideline. One man’s loss is another man’s gain. Still to early to step in.

          Everything Trump touches dies. The Republicans will have a big decision to make soon. Jump or go down with the ship.

          1. Well, Trump has been bankrupt 6 times (although he will only admit to 4)—

            KSA is not looking well for him:
            “Total instability reigns. The only certainty is that the Houthi movement’s increasingly sophisticated offensive will continue to be deployed inside Saudi Arabia, unless MBS shelves his vicious war. Otherwise, he’d better start booking a one-way ticket to London.”

            1. Trump already has his ticket to Moscow and filed for building permits for his new tower home.

          2. ” The Republicans will have a big decision to make soon. Jump or go down with the ship.”

            I think they have a slightly different question, one that is very similar to one Pelosi has been asking herself over the past 2 1/2 yrs-
            ‘What is the most opportune time to get rid of him?’
            Pelosi preference was at the next election, but he started to beg too hard for impeachment.
            For the republicans, their best chance is a small window in about 6 months. Gives then time to launch a new candidate.

            1. By jumping ship, I mean for the Senate to convict him. If they all voted to get rid of him. Trumps 35% will be back in the Republicans arms with in weeks. It’s the smartest move the Republicans can make.

              Can you say President Romney

            3. He has appointed so many sociopaths around him, it is not going to be easy.
              I’m sure they are getting nervous.

            4. Too many guns and not enough grey matter amongst his supporters. I would not be surprised to see the US descend further into violence as this unfolds, and it saddens me as I have so many relatives down there.

              Let’s put it this way. We were planning a visit to my sisters down on Camano Island (below Bellingham WA). We changed our initial plans to carry on to the Oregon coast, and instead made plans to drive across the north Cascades and head back into BC just below Osoyoos. Now, we are heading for Camano on Oct 9th, will stay two nights, then boogie back across the border. My wife doesn’t even want to go, but so far I have convinced her crossing the border in our van should go okay. (Westfalia). If we are hassled at Customs we will never return.

              We’ll just do a short autumn run in BC…maybe 3 tanks of fuel as we head a bit north and on back to the coast.

              This sentiment is quite common with Canadians since Trump arrived on scene. Many folks I know have said they will never return to the US. It’s the guns so many people carry, for the most part. Surrey gang bangers killing each other is bad enough, plus the loser BC gamers who killed three innocents in BC this summer. We hardly ever travel anywhere, anymore. Anywhere. But, my sister is in her 70s and life is short. Like I said, any hassles we turn around never to return.

            5. I moved back to the States from Mexico—
              Hitting the border is a wake up call– and not a good one.
              Everything is very tight again.

  4. Cars have a problem: They last longer, and that means the insides get grubby and outmoded
    Nathan Bomey

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2019/09/27/new-cars-last-longer-and-interiors-need-more-durable-materials/2211617001/

    Cars are lasting longer than ever. While that’s good for owners, it’s bad for the interior of the vehicle, where stains, cracks and outmoded electronics can undermine the overall driving experience.

    So automakers and suppliers are being forced to rethink the way they make everything, from seat fabrics to door coatings to infotainment systems. Everything must be designed for the long haul.

    The average age of cars and light trucks on U.S. roads reached an all-time high of 11.8 years in 2018, according to research firm IHS Markit. That’s partly due to improvements in reliability – engines are lasting longer as components become more resilient. It’s also because of lengthier loan terms, which incentivize owners to keep their vehicles longer as they pay off the debt.

    By 2023, there will be about 84 million vehicles on the road that are at least 16 years old, reflecting a 240% increase from 35 million in 2002, according to IHS.

    And that poses a significant challenge.

    The last thing automakers want is for their cars to get a reputation for deteriorating quickly on the inside.

    Faded plastics or stained fabrics could leave an impression on car owners – and their passengers – that certain brands can’t hold up over time, even when their engines are running strong.

    And that’s just with a limited number of riders.

    Imagine the wear and fears on cars used through ride-hailing apps like Uber and Lyft, where passenger volume can be higher and interiors are at risk of wearing out more quickly. And with those customers, there’s only one chance to make a good impression or leave a bad one.

    “Customers want these soft-touch materials,” said Brent Gruber, senior director of automotive at J.D. Power. “They want things to look really nice, but it also has to be durable and it also has to hold up.”

    1. Not like the old days- when you had to re-bore your cylinders every 1000 miles; or so my gran told me. He took his first car ALL apart, and then put it ALL back together (yes it ran fine) in his driveway. Not sure if that impacted his warranty or not lol.

    2. Sheesh! Haven’t they heard of upholsterers? Over the air updates and glass cockpit can take care of the rest.

      NAOM

    3. Average age is a bit misleading: newer cars are driven substantially more, so the average age could be 16 years, but 50% of VMT is accounted for by vehicles less than 6 years old. There’s a long tail of low VMT cars.

      That means it’s faster to implement new tech than it might appear.

  5. China to shutter 8.7GW of coal power by year’s end

    The NEA said on its website on Sunday that all provinces and regions have been ordered to shutter coal-fired power units with a capacity of less than 50,000 kW, while larger units of up to 100,000 kW in regions covered by large-scale power grids will also be shut down, along with plants which have reached the end of their lifespan.

    China has so far managed to reduce coal’s share of the total energy production in the country from 68% in 2012 to 59% in 2018.

    However, overall consumption has continued to increase and there are concerns that China currently has as much as 200 GW of new coal-fired power capacity in the pipeline.

    The China Electricity Council currently predicts that total coal-fired power capacity may eventually peak at a whopping 1,300 GW – up from around 1,000 GW as of today.

    China’s new electricity plan is way more important than impeaching Donald Trump

    There are two main financial problems for the sector, both of which are obvious, but nothing is ever done.

    First is over capacity and the second is the cost of coal. The only hope for sector profits is a lower coal price, but that can only come about if either there is a lot more coal supply either in China or globally, or if demand falls.

    So long as China remains a coal importer it’s exposed to the global price, and this will make its electricity expensive relative to countries that either don’t’ have to import or, like the Middle East and the US, can for a while rely on cheap gas.

    It may seem obvious but it’s hard to see how building more coal-fired capacity is going to help with either over supply or lower requirement for imported coal.

    Germany added 2.72 GW of PV in eight months

    Germany’s Federal Network Agency (the Bundesnetzagentur) has reported 327.1 MW of PV generation capacity was connected to the grid in August.

    The activity extended the recent upward trend in monthly new builds – around 241 MW of capacity was added in May, 270 MW in June and 310 MW in July. In the first eight months of the year, newly installed PV capacity topped out at 2.72 GW, the Bundesnetzagentur reported.

    Of the new capacity deployed in August, a good 235 MW was represented by rooftop installations and 18.6 MW by ground-mounted plants built outside the national tendering scheme. A further 928 kW of solar systems were registered under the tenant electricity scheme

  6. Australia rooftop solar installations equal record 180MW in September

    Installations of small scale rooftop solar in Australia equalled its record monthly level of 180MW in September, with New South Wales just pipping Queensland to be the strongest market in the country.

    The latest data released by SunWiz shows the boom in small-scale rooftop solar (up to 100kW) continues in 2019, with year to date reaching 1.5GW and running nearly 40 per cent ahead of last year, and poised to break the 2GW barrier for the calendar year.

    NSW was the strongest market with 49MW, followed by Queensland with 48MW and Victoria – now under a strict supply quota thanks to that state’s added solar rebate – standing at 34MW. The came W.A. with 21MW and South Australia with 20MW.

    1. NWS Houston
      ✔
      @NWSHouston
      Galveston set another record high temperature today with a high of 92 degrees. The previous record was 89 degrees established in 2004 and 1900. The 92 degree value recorded today is the warmest temperature ever recorded so late in the year.

  8. I missed this from a couple of weeks ago:

    China is trying to control its coal-fuelled electricity, but it’s not succeeding

    Electricity

    Mostly the following charts tell their own story.

    In our view China is trying but not succeeding in controlling its coal-fuelled electricity. The main state owned generators are not doing well, when push comes to shove the implicit contract of economic growth as the price of political stability means that the well being of future generations is sacrificed for today’s population.

    In this note we just look at the statistics. The implications of China’s nascent carbon price policy and the China’s decarbonisation and electricity plans in the next five year plan 2021-2025 remain completely unclear and this week’s UN climate summit won’t change that.

    Nuclear production is growing much faster than wind at present. Solar PV production is growing rapidly, but is still tiny in comparison at just 2% of electricity production.

    In comparison to Australia, China has a large hydro resource and could do much more on solar and wind if it had a real mind to do so.

    1. I sense a conflict within India along these lines as well.
      On one hand planners would love to push low carbon electrical generation growth,
      but the coal industry is very deeply embedded in the political and economic system there.
      It takes a long time to roll back such a big industry given the huge investment in dedicated railways, mines, power plants, ports, and the tens of millions of jobs in this industry there.

      if you look at this report, ‘thermal’ equals coal on the graphs
      https://indiapowerreview.com/indian-power-generation-and-capacity-july-2019-update/

  10. The new Audi 8 uses electric turbo chargers.

    https://dlmag.com/the-2020-audi-s6-has-a-more-powerful-mild-hybrid-v6-with-electric-turbocharging/

    The electrification of car engines continues. 48 volt systems are not only good for turbocharging and hybrid drive trains, they can also support drive-by-wire instead of power steering, 4 wheel steering, active electric suspension, electric valves on engines, and regenerative braking. Carburetors are are dying tech. Transmissions are now software driven as well.

    The other big benefit is that higher voltage means lower currents, reducing the size of the wiring harnesses. 12 volt wiring harnesses are the bane of modern car production. I guess 12 volt will survive in infotainment systems though.

    Meanwhile Audi is downsizing to six cylinders. The internal combustion engine is a wonderful gizmo, but the age of wonderful gizmos is passing. Now it is all solid state, software and electric actuators.

    1. 48V is good for infotainment systems, cuts current to the speakers, loss in cables and gives more headroom for peaks hance better sound. It is more typical of the DC voltages within domestic systems.

      NAOM

  11. On this day in history-
    On October 7, 2016….
    during the 2016 United States presidential election a republican candidate voice recording was released to the public- “I don’t even wait…grab them by the pussy”.

    This overt proclamation of sexual assault did not dis-way born again christians (81%), and catholics (52%) from voting for that man. Prime example of the failure of these religions to teach good morals and ethical behavior.

    1. I remember back in the last century when record heat readings were often matched, somewhere else in the world or decade, by a similar number of record cold readings. Believe it or not.

    2. So being about the same as 2016, that suggests there’s been no change for a few years.

      1. Very perceptive!
        Another way to put it would be- 2 of the hottest September global temps in recorded history have been experienced in just the last 4 years.

        Or- only 2 of the last 4 years have experienced record global heat for the month of September.

        What ever makes you happy Bradley.

        1. ‘in recorded history’

          No. It says only compared to the period 1981-2010.

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