168 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, May 19, 2023”

      1. yeah, well, Russia can claim “existential threat” or “fog of war” or even “serves you right”. I think the main thing is (irrelevant of whether invading was a good idea, was Russia ready, or was last year a failure), is Russia backing down or ready to crumble. I know there have been lots of news reports about Putin “almost dead and gone”, but I’d say those are probably propaganda efforts to keep support for the war up. also tons of reports about military on the brink of collapse as well. again, not convinced.

        https://cepa.org/article/russias-military-has-improved-the-west-should-take-note/

        Russia can have a bad year or two and it’s not really going to change “domestic temperature” all that much. In fact, misery begets anger and if the russians had a bad year, it might just spur them to show the world who is boss when it comes to land war in that part of the world. unfortunately for them, ukrainians are about as miserable as the russians are, so stalemate it is.

        1. Putin’s approval rating has risen, as is common with any war leader, even ones that may be losing.

          We had Gen. Cavoli of EURCOM say this month that while the ground forces are eroded, Russia is still a multi-domain threat to be reckoned with. I recall during the opening weeks of the war when things started to unravel for Russia and the VKS proved they couldn’t do SEAD for shit, having to tell people that this wasn’t a fault of Soviet/Russian hardware. First of all, Ukraine, the winning side at that point, was using the same or inferior variants. Secondly, the doctrine of the USSR didn’t really change much, and so the lack of adaptability in the field led to horrific leadership decisions and loss of COs in the battles to come. Russia has learnt from that.

          Remember, Ukraine is relying very heavily on Western aid, primarily much older hardware than NATO would field in a true peer war. There’s only so much of that kicking about, especially when Europe has far less stock than the MIC infatuated US.

          There are no wunderwaffen that will win this war. I like to think we’re smart enough here to realise that HIMARS, even with GMLRS or, hell, ATACMS, doesn’t automatically give the UAF the win. It just bleeds a lot more Russians of men and equipment that then gets replaced. Unpopular as the war is, no one is overthrowing Putin and rolling a hard six on changing the outcome here. It’s an attritional war, and Ukraine is the weaker side here without vast input from NATO. Manpower is a much bigger problem. Who does Ukraine recruit from if the vaunted counteroffensive goes badly?

          Russia’s economy continues to chug along despite all the rouble is collapsing propaganda put out in the news.

          Any hope for a quick end to this war has long since gone. Russia is not taking Kyiv (to the thankfulness of friends I have in the north of the city) and Ukraine is not going back to pre-2014 borders, Crimea is far too defensible. Mike Kofman is a good source on this in the War on the Rocks podcast.

          So, this is a proxy war that we can’t pull out of without losing a lot of face while at the same time domestic audiences deal with inflationary pressures and see dedollarisation become a talking point for those less enthused to be dragged around by the flailing US hegemony.

          Pretty interesting times, methinks. Is this going to be a state of affairs that in five years time is still percolating through the news cycle? I sure hope not.

          1. Kleiber that is just about the best summary I’ve heard anywhere. Hopefully it will resonate here a bit.

            1. I’m finding too much of the Western press and NAFO accounts I’ve followed are skewing reality. When all I got was “RuAF is full of idiots human wave attacking with shovels”, I begin to question the narrative.

              Turns out, it’s actually not going so badly for Russia as many think, nor as well for Ukraine for the same reasons. I was much more optimistic 6 months ago when they’d made big pushes around Kherson etc. Now? Not so much. The lack of any real offensive or movement at all, despite pledged hardware, makes me wonder how well the UAF is in terms of making good on a major push.

        1. Also doesn’t help that they’ve had to use the likes of Kh-22s in land attack role with CEPs that would make most late Cold War NATO cruise missiles look bleeding edge.

      3. Russians can’t target things that move, so they target things that don’t move, like civilian infrastructure. Russia is laughing stock as far as fighting forces go. It’ll take decades to rebuild the capacity of their Gucci units.

        1. I’d say this has been a good learning exercise for them that may also come with changes to the corruption in the system. If they intend to be a force in the region, that had to change anyway. So it’s do or die for them.

          Or it all falls apart. I can’t really see the status quo being something they can maintain indefinitely any more than Ukraine can what they’re doing. They just have more capacity for pain than Ukraine, at least currently.

        2. Russia is the laughing stock .? Yeah , he who laughs last laughs best .

          1. That is a pretty misleading chart.
            The implication is that all of the countries on the left side are as committed to the war as is Russia. Perhaps a more honest way would be to show the populations from which the combatants are drawing ground forces and the actual number of tanks, aircraft and heavy weapons involved on either side.
            Maybe another chart would show the % of the military aged men that have deserted their homeland when facing the draft.

            1. Russia Can Do NOTHING as F-16s Announced for Ukraine

              Jake Broe
              356K subscribers

              441,683 views May 21, 2023 #NATO #Ukraine #Russia
              The United States this weekend announced they support the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s in the United Kingdom. A coalition of Western countries (including Belgium, The Netherlands, Denmark, the UK, and Portugal) are now in the process of securing dozens of F-16 planes to be delivered to Ukraine.

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Gi09Cb_jnE

              Ben Hodges Reveals What Putin’s Master Plan Is!

              Thanks god !! For helping all the world leaders to make decision to united and support Ukraine, to make sure the terrorist kremlin regime won’t do again, and free the good Russia peoples to have a normal life again soon !!!

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_r3w4h6wN-k

            2. HB , my last post on the Ukraine subject . I have no inclination to argue with the members of ” The flat earth society ” . The narratives thru 2022-23 from The Empire of Lies .
              Manpads will be the gamechanger .
              Tomahawks will the gamechanger .
              Javelins will be the gamechanger .
              HIMARS will be the gamechanger .
              Abrams will be the gamechanger .
              Leopards will be the gamechanger .
              ICRM ( UK ) will be the gamechanger .
              Patriots will be the gamechanger .
              What happened ? All turned into metal scrap by Russia .
              Send the F-16’s . The S-300 and S-400 air defense system will turn them into more metal scrap .
              If this war was a tennis match what would it be like from NATO viewpoint :
              15- love Ukraine
              30- love Ukraine
              40- love Ukraine
              Game set and match to Russia .
              🙂
              Last post on Ukraine .

    2. I recommend Perun’s channel on YouTube for various hour long dissections of strategies, equipment issues, and geopolitical commentary.

        1. Such a simpleton, yes the enemy is inside your selfish culture

          “Gender identity is the personal sense of one’s own gender.[1] Gender identity can correlate with a person’s assigned sex or can differ from it. In most individuals, the various biological determinants of sex are congruent, and consistent with the individual’s gender identity.[2] Gender expression typically reflects a person’s gender identity, but this is not always the case.[3][4] While a person may express behaviors, attitudes, and appearances consistent with a particular gender role, such expression may not necessarily reflect their gender identity. The term gender identity was coined by psychiatry professor Robert J. Stoller in 1964 and popularized by psychologist John Money.[5][6][7]

          In most societies, there is a basic division between gender attributes assigned to males and females,[8] a gender binary to which most people adhere and which includes expectations of masculinity and femininity in all aspects of sex and gender: biological sex, gender identity, and gender expression.[9] Some people do not identify with some, or all, of the aspects of gender assigned to their biological sex;[10] some of those people are transgender, non-binary, or genderqueer. Some societies have third gender categories.

          Essentialists argue that gender identity is determined at birth by biological and genetic factors, while social constructivists argue that gender identity and the way it is expressed are socially constructed, instead determined by cultural and social influences. These positions are not mutually exclusive, as an innate gender identity can be expressed in different ways in different cultures.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_identity#:~:text=Gender identity is the personal,with the individual’s gender identity.

          1. Gender identity and sex are different and should not be confused. Until this is recognized, this issue will continue to be a muddle in the public mind.

            Sex is biological and immutable, determined by 1.8 billion years of evolution. It is not “assigned at birth” but a matter of which gametes one produces, of which there are only two (egg and sperm). I have female asparagus plants in my garden. Their sex is determined biologically, not assigned. Yet, it would be absurd to call an asparagus plant a “woman.” They don’t have gender identity.

            Gender identity is entirely cultural, and being a liberal, I say live and let live: persons should be able to choose freely how they express themselves comfortably, regardless of their biological sex.

            1. Brains are feminized or masculinized during fetal development by hormonal exposure. Robert M. Sapolsky addresses this in chapter 7 of his book Behave: The Biology Of Humans At Our Best And Worst. In a section beginning on page 211 entitled Boy and Girl Brains, Whatever That Might Mean, he delves into the nuances. Here’s a crucial bit:

              “…testosterone has much of its masculinizing effect in the brain by becoming estrogen. The conversion of testosterone to estrogen also occurs in the fetal brain. Regardless of fetal sex, fetal circulation is full of maternal estrogen, plus female fetuses secrete estrogen. Thus female fetal brains are bathed in estrogen. Why doesn’t that masculinize the female fetal brain? Most likely it’s because fetuses make something called alpha-fetoprotein, which binds circulating estrogen, taking it out of action. So neither Mom’s estrogen nor fetal-derived estrogen masculinizes the brain in female fetuses. And it turns out that unless there is testosterone and anti-Mullerian hormone around, fetal mammalian brains automatically feminize.”

              He goes on to discuss what exactly is a “female” or “male” brain in his usual engaging way, including anecdotes of how male rhesus monkeys like to play with toy trucks, while females prefer stuffed animals, and how researchers then fucked with this by exposing fetal monkeys to different hormones, with resultant differences in gendered behavior. Relatively safe to say that the observed behavioral differences were not cultural.

              In humans, congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) and androgen insensitivity syndrome (AIS) are two identified conditions that interfere with hormonal effects during gestation, with resultant effects on phenotypic development of sexual characteristics, and gendering of the brain.

              This doesn’t necessarily contradict your assertion, Mike, that gender identity is cultural (although ‘entirely’ might be overstating the case), as identity is a subjective state of being, and the mental construction of self is done within a cultural and social environment. But what does it mean to feel ‘male’ or feel ‘female’ and is this a subjective feeling that is, or can be independent of societal messaging about what it means to be a man, or to be a woman?

              So, what’s my policy position?

              Gender dysphoria due to biological conditions is likely permanent, so permanent treatments such as sex reassignment surgery should be an option available to adults.

              Recognizing that gender dysphoria can be a transitory ideation, and subject to social contagion, only reversible pharmacological treatment should be available to minors, and subject to rigorous diagnosis.

              Sports participation should be chromosomally determined. If you have a Y chromosome, you participate in male sports leagues, regardless of how your genitals might happen to appear.

              People can use whatever pronouns they like, for themselves or others. Social consequences may vary, legal consequences should not.

            2. BN, nice comment! Sapolsky is one of my favorite science writers. I’ve read BEHAVE twice, believe it or not.

              Regardless of whether brains can be “male” or “female,” the sex of the organism comes down to gametes.

              Trans issues have zero effects on me personally, as a gay man. It’s possible there is no risk at all to any male from trans men. It’s the women who are having trouble heaped on them right now. They will be the ones to have to forge the way forward, given issues in sports, private spaces and prisons, none of which men have to deal with.

            4. great analysis Nickson. sapolsky is top shelf both for research and popular dissemination of that research.

        2. Can we not do this? Thanks from normal village. Only weirdos on the right are fixated with this. It’s just not that big of a deal. Though I did find the Target “tuck convenient” swim wear a bit much but if you don’t like it , shop at Walmart. Or get a life. Or drop dead.

        3. The Russian military’s poor performance and war crimes in Ukraine demonstrate the hollowness of its hyper-masculine propaganda.

          1. Because Ukraine is the definition of hyper-feminine touchy feely culture?

            As someone who works with multiple Slavs daily and is partnered with one, it’s pretty funny that people project this Westernised ideal on to our adopted proxy partner against Russia. If you want conservative social values, I’ve got some Lithuanians and Poles to show you.

            In any case, that’s academic. It’s not machismo that accounts for military efficacy. It’s discipline, training, command, and logistics. The RuAF have been pretty piss poor in a lot of things that they are only now coming to grips with. But that’s not to say Ukraine didn’t screw up either. Azovstal, for instance and the multiple failed evac attempts.

            1. Because I’ve seen Russian military recruiting ads and they’re stupid. They’re trying to cargo cult military prowess with hyper masculine culture war memes. As far as I can tell it’s not working.

              Ukraine does appear to be exercising very high levels of cohesion and inclusiveness (and a brilliant hybrid of static and mobile defense), as is common when a community faces an existential threat; as opposed to in Russia where parents learn their daughters rapist is out of jail now cuz the perp did a 6 month bid with Wagner Group. Russia is not good at civil military affairs. It is eroding things.

            2. I can’t speak of the UAF, but we already saw a good indicator of more conservative values associated with Eastern European nations.

              https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1114282

              This is in no way new to anyone who knows the area.

              https://metro.co.uk/2017/05/03/this-map-shows-the-most-racist-countries-in-europe-and-how-britain-ranks-6612608/

              And yes, I’ve seen the Russian army recruitment ads and aside from being hilarious, they do basically come off as the sort of thing we may have put out decades ago. The incentives now are pay, which seems to be working for now, not that big pay days are hard to realise in modern Russia (during collapse in the ‘90s, people would sell goods they made at the factory to be able to eat as then factory just stopped paying them wages).

          1. “HIROSHIMA, Japan (AP) — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived Saturday in Japan for talks with the leaders of the world’s most powerful democracies, a personal appearance meant to galvanize global attention as the nations ratcheted up pressure on Moscow for its 15-month invasion of Ukraine.

            “Japan. G7. Important meetings with partners and friends of Ukraine. Security and enhanced cooperation for our victory. Peace will become closer today,” Zelenskyy tweeted upon his arrival on a plane provided by France.

            U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that President Joe Biden and Zelenskyy would have direct engagement at the summit. On Friday, Biden announced his support for training Ukrainian pilots on U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, a precursor to eventually providing those aircraft to Ukraine.

            The G7 vowed to intensify the pressure in its joint statement Saturday.

            “Russia’s brutal war of aggression represents a threat to the whole world in breach of fundamental norms, rules and principles of the international community. We reaffirm our unwavering support for Ukraine for as long as it takes to bring a comprehensive, just and lasting peace,” the group said.”

            https://apnews.com/article/g7-japan-hiroshima-ukraine-biden-kishida-8d22eac47970b7051000fbd5b0ebba70

            What happened to the G8 ? Putin has to sit at home in a bunker because his own people want to kill him.

            The International Criminal Court in the Hague has issued an arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin. It accuses him of being responsible for war crimes in Ukraine, including the unlawful deportation of children.Mar 17, 2023

            2. May 20, 2019: Zelensky becomes president

              May 20, 2022: loses Mariupol

              May 20, 2023: loses Bakhmut
              Next stop Odessa , not Kiev .

            3. HB , ” What happened to the G8 ? Putin has to sit at home in a bunker because his own people want to kill him. ” Putin’s reply .

            4. HitH: I would be surprised if the Russians marched on Odessa anytime soon, and even more so if they took it without massive losses. I don’t see any major pushes on the cards right now.

            6. Anyone following the hijinx going on in Belgorod with the RVC? It’s pretty amusing seeing how bad the border forces are in quelling this incursion. An FSB building has been set alight and other things damaged, and the Russian forces have major issues trying to deal with it, it appears. Which may mean they are spread way too thin there.

              The only problem is, these guys are literal neo-Nazis and ethno-nationalists. So, them causing a potential civil war and overthrowing Putin is not my idea of a win.

              https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660665054071599104?s=20

        1. and one day that price of rice might actually be a result of yields. think of it!

          but for now – money flows. reversion to the mean in 3,2,1

    1. I am assured 1.5ºC is totally fine now and it’s okay and good that we breach it. Climate change is only a problem at 2ºC, and have you heard about the new DAC facility in Iceland? So feel free to keep on consuming, citizen.

      1. Copy/paste from OFW . Makes me go hmmmm .
        “Every animal has got its pace, speed, rhythm.
        The snails glide slowly, the bear sleeps during the winter, the butterflies rest on the flowers.
        But the voracious humans can not find the pace . “

        1. We have a pace and it’s “faster than expected”, the slogan for climate change.

    2. Climate change/global warming ended here in Maine, on Thursday, May 18, when a hard freeze destroyed at least 90% of our apple crop.

      [Please pay no attention to the fact that full bloom occurred ten days earlier than normal.]

      1. Some of us may remember the Mr Magoo cartoon character. He opened his eyes for only an instant as dictated by the script, otherwise keeping them tightly closed, thereby coming to entirely wrong conclusions about everything.

        The right wing crowd operates like Mr Magoo.
        We’ve been having this same problem happen more and more often due not to unusually cold spring weather, but rather because of unusually WARM winter weather.

        The trees are breaking dormancy weeks sooner than they should.

        Mike gets it of course, but I’m adding this comment for the benefit of any lurkers who otherwise might not understand his remark about the bloom being two weeks early.

        1. I cringed when I began seeing pink at the of April. Full bloom second week of May is pretty shocking.

        2. Don’t worry. We’ll get another senator holding a snowball in winter in Capitol Hill to further prove that global warming is a hoax. The peanut gallery will go wild.

      2. I’m sorry Mike. there’s always some snark on the forum but this shit eventually has real world consequences for people’s quality of life. hard to build resilience and prepare for peak everything when you can’t even raise apples

        1. A professor from Extension came out here to look at the damage the other day. She cut into blossoms from several varieties and found that we will probably have a crop. Some varieties are toast, but others had such massive bloom that they can afford to lose 90% of their apples and still have plenty left for harvest. I’ll know in a week or so when I can assess fruit set. This has been a lesson in Darwinian selection: those trees that “put out” the most, and that had later bloom, will be the ones we pick from this year. We have 25 different heritage varieties.

          Now I know why Northern Spy was such a favorite variety for the old-timers here in New England: they bloom so late that they tend to miss the late freezes and even part of scab season.

          1. A nice sharp apple with some sharp cheddar cheese is one of my favorite foods in the whole world. when I moved to Berkeley in the last 90’s I was shocked by all the apple varieties: Cripp’s Pink?!?! Honeycrisp?!? Back in Ohio, Fuji and Galas were still considered “exotic”. I’m spent a bit of time in Wenatchee WA and I loved driving through the mountain apple orchards.

  4. This is going to be a rough couple of weeks… McCarthy was JUST complaining the WH delayed talks too long. And they only lasted 4 hours. But really – any negotiation at all and Biden might be done with his base.

    “It’s time to press pause because it’s just not productive,” said Mr Graves [LEAD NEGOTIATOR!], a Louisiana congressman, as he walked out. “Until people are willing to have difficult conversations about how you can actually move forward and do the right thing, we’re not going to sit here and talk to ourselves.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65649229

    I say, Let’s see what happens.

    1. This is what I expected, I think the odds are low that an 11th hour deal is worked out. The Freedom caucus will block any deal.

      I hope Biden calls their bluff and does not give in to blackmail by Republicans.

      14th Amendment route would be a better option.

      1. And it’s not just the freedom caucus. I am hard pressed to find any news article, op ed, tweet, or politician that basically isn’t parroting the Republican line that these are “common sense” cuts to spending for a country that has maxed out its credit card. and on the democratic side you’ve basically got two unelected officials negotiating. do those two officials feel empowered to basically “call the bluff” on the entire “blob” of DC group think and send the US into default? I’m not so sure.

        I guess it might end up like 2011? they’ll get the “reductions” but those reductions will only be sporadically enforced?

        https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-gops-big-idea-to-stop-spending-has-been-tried-before-and-it-only-sort-of-worked/ar-AA1brl0r

      2. I agree with you Dennis. I would put the probability of default higher than in the past. But more likely this is a scheme to manipulate the stock market for gain. Everyone of those Republican members in the house and their major donors will know when to buy the market right before the increase passes.

        It’s always about the personal dollar first for Republicans. It’s why they love Trump so much.

        1. There is a lot that could go wrong. Hopefully Biden has the spine to ignore the debt ceiling and direct the Treasury Dept to continue borrowing based on the 14th Amendment.

          Also it seems to me that Biden could propose that for every dollar of increased taxation on the wealthy agreed to by Republicans, then one dollar of reduced spending will be agreed to by Democrats. Perfectly reasonable.

          1. the United States has 4.3 percent of the world population but accounted for 16.9 percent of the world’s COVID-19 deaths.

            1. Mobility, mobility, mobility. 16.9 percent correlates with U.S. oil consumption with a little obesity sprinkled on top.

          2. Agree dollar for dollar is perfectly reasonable, but these aren’t reasonable times. We have been watching this shit show now for over 40 years. Republicans cut taxes and regulations to much and drive the country into debt and recession. Then the Democrats shore up the economy and reduce the debt. Only for the Republicans to cut taxes and regulations the next time in power, driving the economy again into recession and increasing the debt. Personally I’ve seen enough. Biden should just call their bluff. It’s the wealthy who will really get hurt by a default and have a lot more to lose. The Republican donors aren’t going to cut their nose off their face. Otherwise this circus continues.

            “Starve the beast

            These advocates of limiting government’s size have a traffic cop theory of the state, featuring a minimalist state focused on safety and security.

            Many believe that government is at best superfluous and at worst a drag on a free market. It has long been their aim to cut taxes to “starve the beast.”

            Grover Norquist, who founded Americans for Tax Reform in 1985 at the urging of President Reagan, declared in 2001: “I don’t want to abolish government. I simply want to reduce it to the size where I can drag it into the bathroom and drown it in the bathtub.”

            https://theconversation.com/the-shutdown-drowning-government-in-the-bathtub-111333

            My belief is the wealthy should pay all of the military budget. Their the one’s who have something to protect. All the poor need is a Mexican military budget.

    2. If you look at state rankings on Federal Spending Dependency Score you will see that
      15 of the top 20 most dependent states are
      ‘Red’ states

  5. It’s looking as if we have a couple of Russian trolls burning up their keyboards.

    It’s hard to imagine more than a small handful of the Russian people actually being in favor of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, given what it’s doing to their standard of living, and the longer sanctions last, the tougher times will be for typical Russian citizens.

    In the meantime, the Ukrainians, as best I can see, are ready and willing to die for their country and for the sake of their families.

    And for those of us who don’t have our heads up trump’s ass, or Putin’s, or for some reason just hate the USA, it’s as clear as the sun at high noon that Russia is and has been our enemy since the end of WWII.

    People who talk up or defend Russia these days have GODDAMNED short memories. I don’t. I read all about the Iron Curtain from the time I was a kid until it finally fell, and I read the books written by the handful of people who managed to get out of the Russian prison empire.

    That wall wasn’t built to keep Yankees out. It was built to keep Europeans IN.

    You have to be REALLY stupid to forget that and take the word of a former head of the Russian secret police about anything at all.

    So…… as a practical matter, the Ukrainians are taking care of business for us, and doing a bang up job of it, destroying Russian equipment wholesale, wiping out large numbers of Russian troops, and enabling us to get rid of our mostly otherwise useless stockpiles of older munitions into the bargain…….. because WHO, OTHER than the Russians, present any credible threat at all to us and our Western European friends?

    We’re getting a good look at the Russian’s best stuff, and we’ll be replacing our old stuff with next generation new stuff anyway.

    China might be and in my estimation will be a problem for us and for everybody in that part of the world, but not quite yet.

    As for Putin himself……… maybe he’s not really sick……. maybe he’s faking it…….. but he sure as hell looks sick and acts sick. I have relatives who are medical professionals who say his appearance and physical behaviors such as twitching legs and hands, etc, are entirely consistent with a diagnosis of advanced cancer, or some other potentially fatal disease likely being treated with large doses of steroids, which are generally a last ditch treatment for some such diseases.

    1. We’ve been hearing the “Putin has months to live” cope for over a year now. He’s not dying of anything except old age. And when he goes, we get to enjoy the lottery of which dipshit suckup hanger on wins over the political system enough to claim the throne. Or we can have a civil war in the world’s largest nuclear playground. Much better than ceding some territory in Ukraine.

      Of course, none of this would have happened had the US and UK not fucked Russia in the ‘90s. Funny how no one brings that up.

      Note: not an endorsement of Russia blowing shit up in a dumb invasion, nor Ukraine being egged on by the West to send more of their people into the proverbial meat grinder.

      Go do yourselves a favour and see what led up to this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_1985–1999:_TraumaZone

      It’s on iPlayer. Get a VPN.

      1. We fucked Russia?

        Tell us true, dear Klieber, who built the Iron Curtain, and refused to go home after WWII, choosing to do what Germany TRIED to do…….. build an empire ?

        I have a cousin with a trump sign, who fucking believes this sort of shit. He says we should abandon every friend we have in the world because Putin has nukes. Of course he also thinks trump is a Christian and that Biden is a child molester.

        Maybe you grew up in some sort of super duper liberal fantasy environment, where everybody is nice, where there are no bullies, no victims.

        Giving up a goddamned INCH to a bully is a copper plated ironclad guarantee he will go for another inch, and then another, and another after that, until it’s a foot at a time.

        1. lol, my reply was deleted because it was “spam” or something.

          Dennis, you able to release it again? I adjusted a link in it, and it flagged it despite it being an article address about Guatemala (seemed to accept it fine before).

      2. He’s not dying of anything except old age.

        What is your source of information on this? Did you give him a physical?

        1. Given everyone else is proffering medical diagnoses, how about the onus being on those people?

          Guy looks pretty good for someone who was meant to die last summer or whatever.

          Additionally, who here thinks things just magically fix themselves because one guy dies? Are they the same people that think Hitler was the Third Reich and Himmler et al. were actually pretty cool people ready to sue for peace?

          1. I’ve put in a LOT of time reading history, but I’m never the less only an armchair historian.

            But if Hitler had been assassinated, there’s a very real possibility the Germans would have come to the negotiating table a year or so prior to their final surrender. A lot of them had brains enough, and were rational enough, to know that their own best interests dictated giving it up.

            The rational professional officer class knew it was all over but the crying once the Allies executed the successful Normandy landings.

            An individual sure to be prosecuted as a war criminal would have had a far better chance of escape earlier on. Once the Allies had them surrounded and cornered there wasn’t much hope of making it to South America or anywhere else.

            1. The other option is we have someone more competent who wouldn’t sign off on stupid shit like Operation Barbarossa. Never interrupt your enemy in the middle of a mistake, as they say.

              Applying to the modern day scenario of Russia, maybe better the devil you know? If there was a civil war and the liberators were ethno-nationalists like the sort in Belford causing pain for the authorities, I don’t know if the nation would be much more amenable to co-operating with NATO.

              Even Navalny is chequered, and he’s the best possible leader of the bunch who care to do it.

            2. OFM , ” I’ve put in a LOT of time reading history, but I’m never the less only an armchair historian. ” Here is some history on China . Regards .
              One has to understand the ” Century of Humiliations ” to get an insight on their behavior , I have pulled up an article and a YT video for you . Of course you can do more research on the subject .
              https://imperialglobalexeter.com/2019/07/11/how-the-century-of-humiliation-influences-chinas-ambitions-today/
              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boPkMCJSYSs&t=835s

    2. NATO believes Russia has mined critical infrastructure underwater.

      Internet cables, piplelines, and whatever.

      If Putin is going down, he is going to try to bring people with him.

      1. Like how they blew up Nordstream because… oh hey look, Trump did a thing!

        A lot of events of late have shown me that NATO is very much not pro-Ukraine, but anti-Russia at all costs. I’ve certainly learned from regurgitating the talking points of the MSM on this issue, much as what happened with Iraq. It’s all the same story beats and it’s disconcerting.

        1. How goddamned STUPID to you have to be to fail to understand that Russia as Russia exists today is the enemy of any and all free people ?

          1. I remember after invading Iraq and it was seen as a bad thing to cast aspersions on all Arabs.

            But it’s totally fine for libs to basically do a racism against Russians because of Ukraine, to the point of talking about stopping them from even studying in the West.

            Remember how Russia took back Crimea and America did something about it? Oh, wait, they didn’t. I guess you actually don’t really buy that line of thought. It’s only when it became inconvenient that you even had Russia on the radar, aside from the meddling in elections thing (which was never shown) because the thought that Trump was actually elected terrified people who live in gated communities and on Twitter.

            I love how America respects democratically elected gov’ts and doesn’t do awful things, like overthrow them for the convenience of neoliberal ideology.

            You guys should definitely vote for Trump, he sounds like a great fit for the ideology of othering those not fully aligned with the doctrine of the good ol’ US of A.

            And please don’t worry about the atrocities of your close besties in KSA. They’re a “necessary evil” I guess, just as Europe was totally fine with Russia until, oops, now America wants to sell us their gas instead.

    3. The pro Russia/anti Ukraine peeps are Trumpsters; mad at Zelenskyy for not going along with Trump to manufacture dirt on Biden.

      1. I don’t know who these pro-Russians are. Can you point them out? I have a feeling I’m about to get clumped into this because I don’t regurgitate talking points from the same media that convinced everyone we had to invade Iraq and depose Gaddafi and hate on China’s aspirations.

        It may also boggle some minds here to know that… I hate Trump. And I can’t vote for him, being a card carrying leftist in the UK who was also against Tory Brexit. I have the Ukraine flag in my living room’s window and have posted links to things that are neither pro- nor anti-Ukraine, yet try and assess things with actual reason and evidence. Kofman and Perun will get you more mileage here than whatever the fuck the NYT or Post publish (look at their Bakhmut reporting to see why).

        I thought this place was meant to be smarter than Reddit? Why are we not actually critically looking at what’s going on Ukraine the same way we are oil and gas or climate change?

        1. It does seem like there are a lot of folks who can’t translate the disconnect between what the media tells them about peak oil and reality into other domains, and understand that the lying is full spectrum. If the 2 minute hate is targeting Russia this week, then they are on board, no critical thinking required.

        2. Try this if you want to critically look at what’s going on in Ukraine.

          https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-21-2023

          Russia is doing poorly and paying heavily. It’s easy to see. You might not like it, but there it is.

          I suppose we could discuss policy and what various NATO members could do otherwise than support Ukraine, but let’s not conflate that policy debate with imagining poor performance from Ukraine military.

          I’m quite fine with a policy debate; to wit, I support sending Ukraine weapons and bleeding Russia dry. I think it’s the right thing to do, and I’m glad that many are doing it. When Russia tires of it they can leave. It’s optional.

          It’s also a great showcase for drumming up kit sales. Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!

          1. None of that changes what the US Army general I quoted above, Gen. Cavoli, said about the Russian forces. It also doesn’t change that Russian forces still hold the majority of territorial gains and have seemingly taken Bakhmut.

            You can tell me over and over how badly Russia has done. I already know that, because the Pentagon was of the opinion before this started that it would be an absolute cake walk. And had it been the Soviet army, it would have been. Fortunately corruption showed how much rot is in the system.

            This doesn’t change the facts on the ground, and it’s a poor assessment to underestimate your enemy and their ability to learn from mistakes, something we’ve actually seen happen in this conflict. The leaked files the other month show that ADM stocks are a priority for Ukraine, and the one reason the VKS have not gained superiority (they absolutely suck at SEAD and DEAD missions compared to the decades of experience NATO airforces have). That’s why stand off missile attacks using Tu-95 and Tu-160 or Tu-22s have been common, along with the Shahed drones.

            In fact, lately there’s an uptick in such attacks on the front, meaning UAF has run short of ADM support in areas: https://twitter.com/treaschest/status/1660450361096785920?s=46&t=CkxUTFewBhsxPVoqA_wgtQ

            The media has been too accepting that HIMARS or Abrams or F-16s or Storm Shadows will be the sucker punch that sends Russia packing. They are not wunderwaffen that will turn the tide of the war any more than the superior, almost artisanal weapons the Nazis used helped them. Manpower and resources count for a lot, and Russia has more to bear.

            As I have stated before, Russia has a much larger force to call upon with their multiple fuck ups which I don’t dispute. Ukraine needs to be making strides here to show they can be relied upon to make good on commitments made by NATO, otherwise they play into Putin’s waiting game and run down the clock before potentially Trump or someone less amenable to this war gets in. And it is the USA that is by far the biggest benefactor to the UAF.

      1. Taking up the mantle from where the British and other colonial powers left off. As is the expectation of the leader of the pack.

        I don’t think we’ll ever have a time of enlightened leadership that settles for what’s in their own borders.

  6. OFM , ” China might be and in my estimation will be a problem for us ” . Really ? I don’t see any aircraft carriers or Chinese air force planes anywhere near the US coast or them supplying weapons to US neighbors . It would be beneficial if some countries minded their own business instead of policing the world 7000 miles away .

    1. That’s about ten minutes or so by way of ICBM.

      The Chinese haven’t YET built armed forces comparable to our own, because up until recently, they haven’t had the economic muscle to do so. The ABILITY to do so.

      The ultimate failing of well meaning liberal people may be that they fail to understand that Darwin laid it all out for us.
      We have pretty much come to rule the world, excepting the microbial scene. A virus can still have it’s way with us, lol.
      But we rule otherwise……… so the competition is now INTRA species….. man against man.

      Peace in our time is a fucking guarantee of war for our children and grand children.

      This is not about morality, unless you’re stupid enough to believe it is.

      It’s about blood and empires.

      I sort of like being on the winning side, and anything we do to help the Ukrainians is a no brainer bargain in terms of keeping us, meaning NATO, on the winning side.

      Having said this much, the Ukrainians are in the right and the Russians are totally in the wrong by any moral or ethical measure I’ve ever heard of, other than straight up Darwinian tooth and claw.

      2. OFM , ” The Chinese haven’t YET built armed forces comparable to our own, because up until recently, they haven’t had the economic muscle to do so. The ABILITY to do so. ”
        LOL , armed forces comparable to our own . You mean the one that lost in Vietnam , Lebanon , Somalia , Iraq and Afghanistan . Bunch of loosers . How good are you if you loose against goat herders wearing sandals , shawls and vintage WW II .22 rifles ? The Chinese have higher standards . In the US even after lowering the requirements for ( Don’t raise the bridge , lower the river ) recruitment the army gets only 70 % recruiting .
        P.S ;” Don’t raise the bridge , lower the river ” is movie of old . A comedy you will enjoy .

        1. You forgot to mention the American victory Cold War with the USSR. Which got turned into a gas station with nukes. Russia is NOT getting Ukraine back. You can take that to the bank.

          Putin is going down

          1. The cold war was not a military victory . We are talking about land army forces . Compare apples to apples . Anyway Russia was down but not out . It is back on its feet . Yes , Russia is not getting Ukraine back . Why ? Because there will be no Ukraine left that anyone will want when this war is over . Ukraine will not exist or it will be an orphan . Take this to the bank . As to Russia’s death well Mark Twain has something to say .

            1. Your right, the USSR lost with the US not firing a shoot.

              Moscow the paper tiger. Invaded Ukraine without a supply line to feed or fuel it’s soldier. The only thing Putin does well is bomb civilians because his military can’t fight.

            2. The military holds land that Ukraine has yet to take back despite a much vaunted offensive that has yet to materialise. You would do well to not underestimate your opponent, like how the USA did in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq.

          2. And Americans wonder why Russians dislike their hegemony so much. You’ve literally just echoed the very thing that makes them loathe you guys.

            Same with most of Europe when you were seen as some vassal. Oh, thanks for winning WWII for us, I guess.

            Good luck with the winning hearts and minds. The rest of the world outside the Westeb NATO sphere doesn’t care about Ukraine and the war against Russia. And they make up the vast majority of the global population.

            You may want to factor that into your calculations of might makes right, because China and India aren’t going anywhere.

            1. The hearts and minds of Ukraine immigrate to the West as Putin murdered children

        2. I have lots of friends and relatives who have been in our hot fights since Korea……. .

          We didn’t lose ANY of these wars because we couldn’t win…….. in military terms.

          We gave up and lost basically because the public got tired of them and wanted our guys back home, according to just about every single one of them, one on one

          I’m not even a soldier…… just a farmer.

          But tell ya what……. I could load up a few bombers, if I were a general with the authority to do so, with herbicides and wipe out the human population of a country such as Afghanistan without putting even one boot on the ground.

          Winning in a place such as Vietnam is tough to impossible because the half the people THERE were on the OTHER SIDE…… and the other side knew that they could eventually win by way of attrition, by just holding on until we got tired of it.

          Now as far as the MORALITY of our fighting in any particular country at any particular time is concerned……. this may or may not be relevant.

          War is tooth and claw competition for survival at the nation state level.

          Some body mentioned The Art of War earlier.

          I’ve read it. It goes into some detail about winning by way of getting friends or proxies to do your fighting for you, about manipulating countries that are potential enemies into fighting each other, so as to weaken both, thereby increasing your own relative power and security.

          There’s certainly an ugly kernel of truth in the argument that NATO isn’t about being FOR Ukraine, but rather AGAINST Russia.

          Any realist knows this is true…… but any realist also knows that Ukraine is ON OUR SIDE, that Ukraine is not our enemy.

          I pray that we don’t get tired of supporting the Ukrainians before they send the last Russian soldier home, dead or alive.

          If Putin and company get away with it this time, they’ll be gearing up to do it again to another country within the near future.

          1. great insight by OFM again.

            Moldova is next.

            It’s already been war gamed.

            Putin miscalculated on Ukrainian resolve. But if he doesn’t die, he will win.

            This is not fun and games.

            It is Russian existentialism and Peak Oil and Putin’s chance to be a Stalin or a Gorbochev!!!!

          2. OFM these ramblings so contradict your “Russians are totally in the wrong by any moral or ethical measure I’ve ever heard of, other than straight up Darwinian tooth and claw”-argument that it’s baffling. Did you spray yourself with pesticides or something? your statement here is all Darwinian tooth and claw up and down. so which is it? a moral stance or darwinism? or does it depend on the decade and the person doing the invading? btw I’m not “pro Russia” I’m just anti-nonsensical babbling that you are on to here.

            Okay – I think what you’re saying is that Darwinism is both accurate (in terms of describing how the world works) and proper (morally good). And that the US is the dominant “species” (country), and therefore has every right and even obligation to bomb and subjugate any and all countries under itself. Russia, as an example, would be “good” for invading a weaker neighbor, but as it is, is “bad and foolish” because they cannot do so without provoking the US whom they are much weaker than. Is that about right?

            1. Back atcha Two Cats,

              Morality is an ABSTRACTION…….. and an abstraction that Mother Nature, being non sentient cannot recognize.

              The only way she ” keeps score” long term is via the fossil record. In the short term, she “keeps score” simply by counting the species that are present, holding, gaining or losing ground in terms of numbers and territory held.

              Mother Nature is utterly incapable of entertaining a single thought as to whether a rat is a more or less worthy animal than a human being.

              Darwin RULES, in terms of UNDERSTANDING how the natural world WORKS.

              If you UNDERSTAND evolution, and competition between species, and INTRA species competition among humans, you must understand that in the end, all talk of honor, morality, ethics, etc is nothing more than pissing in the wind……. one or another bunch of us dominates a portion of the world for a while, maybe even a thousand years, then another bunch, then another after that.

              One man’s morality is the next man’s joke…….. IF you UNDERSTAND. Lots of God loving Jesus freaks in this country were totally ok with wiping out the indigenous people who lived here prior to the arrival of us Euro types. Lots more of us were totally ok with owning others like livestock. Slaves WERE literally livestock in real terms. Animals to be worked, fed as necessary, clothed as necessary, etc but WORKED…… otherwise, not worthy of EXISTENCE.

              And the MORALITY involved was the morality of whoever held the upper hand at any given place and time. “History is written by the winners”.

              Now none of this is to say that I don’t personally believe in right and wrong, or that humans and some other animals as well aren’t capable and even eager sometimes to look after each other.

              But the REASON we cooperate and work together is that cooperation has SURVIVAL value. We’re animals of the sort that evolved to exist in small bands, with the individuals in each band working together to ensure each other’s survival.

              It’s quite obviously part of our natural behavior to ” go aviking”, to use force to get what we want. We’ve been doing this for as far back as we have any foggy idea of our own history. Chimps fight chimp sized wars for territory. Ditto lions, wolves, even song birds.

              TOOTH AND CLAW is the WAY of the natural world, in the most basic terms. Big snakes eat baby gators. Big gators eat any snakes they can catch. Bulls and stud horses fight to the death so as to control the breeding of females.

              Now try to get your head around this general idea.

              We aren’t going to win or lose any war or fight on the basis of ethics and or morality except to the extent that such values contribute to our willingness to cooperate, to work together, to stay in the fight rather than just ignore it.

              Wishing otherwise will not make it so. I personally wish it were otherwise…….

              ” I think what you’re saying is that Darwinism is both accurate (in terms of describing how the world works) and proper (morally good). ”

              Correct first half.

              Proper or morally good…….. these are abstractions that have little or nothing to do with which species survive, which species go extinct, with which ones of us humans rule the world, or some portion of it, at some particular time.

              I do believe in ethics and morality……… and that within the context of this discussion of Russia and Ukraine, the USA is without any shadow of a doubt on the high ground, the BETTER country, compared to Russia.

              Now as to whether we have any RIGHT or OBLIGATION to use our power to force other countries to behave according to our wishes……. NO…….. unless you want to talk about this point in terms of ETHICS and or MORALITY.
              If you want to talk about ethics and morals, my own ethical and moral values are such that I’m totally in favor of doing everything possible to help the Ukrainians kick the Russians out of their country.

              But in general terms, I’m talking about REALITY…… not abstractions. We have the POWER to push other countries around.

              We DO push other countries around. Right and wrong have NOTHING to do with understanding that powerful countries USE their power…… in pursuit of their own ends.

              Now……. since I can’t CHANGE reality……

              I’m totally happy with my own accidental good fortune being a Yankee rather than a Chinese peasant or Russian citizen.

              I have absolutely nothing AGAINST the Russian people, as people, or Chinese people, as such.

              But they’re potential threats to my own well being.

              So I’m HAPPY that we Yankees are in a position to push other countries around rather than vice versa……… at least for the most part.

              Now having said all this……

              For what it’s worth I believe our days as the one dominant world power are probably drawing to a close.

              There’s a very real possibility that within the next few decades the world political situation will evolve into a bipolar scenario with the USA and allies versus China and her allies similar to the Cold War scenario between the the USA and our allies versus the old USSR and her allies.

              Hopefully nukes won’t fly.

            2. only Darwinism doesn’t say any of that. it’s just an invented logic to justify, among other things, eugenics:

              “The American historian Richard Hofstadter popularized the term in the United States in 1944. He used it in the ideological war effort against fascism to denote a reactionary creed that promoted competitive strife, racism, and chauvinism. ”

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Darwinism#:~:text=The%20term%20%22social%20Darwinism%22%20first,being%20opposed%20to%20the%20concept.

              thought you said you “read history”. well, wikipedia might be a good place to start.

            3. It’s pretty funny this site has the hopium outlook of a technologically advanced species averting climate change and resource depletion by working together, but also “the only good foreigner is a dead foreigner. It’s just natural law”.

    2. You guys in Europe are going to suffer massively if globalization gets rolled back.
      Your smug comments are extremely naive.

      Affordability of food, clothing, fuel, and manufactured goods may be nearing the end of an era
      where Europe has been the poster child region of the world benefiting the most, over the past 500 years.
      Access to cheap labor, imported fuels and raw materials, imported goods (like semiconductor chips), and the global market for exported goods, could all evaporate quickly.

      1. And the USA is immune to this because…?

        The recent travails in Ukraine have shown the world is now happy to move on from listening to the West, be it the EU or US. You better believe a multi-polar world puts the US on the back foot, every bit as much as the British Empire did post-WWI.

        Globalisation is basically done. We reap what we’ve sown now. It wasn’t like it was going to last indefinitely anyway, the planet simply cannot support that kind of growth.

        1. “And the USA is immune to this because…?”

          Of course not, but America has resources, technology, labor, wealth and a military which puts it’s self in the best and strongest position on earth.

          “The recent travails in Ukraine have shown the world is now happy to move on from listening to the West, be it the EU or US”

          Neville, you are completely clueless. The West under the leadership of Biden is more united than ever. No better example than this weekend at the G7. You are a victim of HIH Russian propaganda. Pull your head out.

          2. You are a victim of HIH Russian propaganda. Pull your head out.
            Bakhmut has fallen . This is not propaganda but a fact . See you in Odessa .

            2. Putin is not going anywhere . They said the same for Castro and then what happened ?
              President Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton…. and snubbed Obama before dying . 10 presidents . Keep dreaming . Putin is now where ,let us see Clinton , GWB 48 , Obama , Trump , Biden . Now 5 . Still got 5 more to go .
              Enjoy ” Sweet dreams ”
              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeMFqkcPYcg

            3. Adolf Hitler, chancellor and dictator of Germany from 1933 to 1945, died by suicide via gunshot on 30 April 1945

            4. They said the same for Castro and then what happened ?

              Castro died of old age.
              He did have about 30 assignation attempts, but—–

        2. The US is certain vulnerable to the contraction of globalization, just like all countries to varying degrees.
          As a region Europe is at or near the top of the vulnerable list.
          What I said is that some of you Europeans are making – ” smug comments are extremely naive.”, on stability and geopolitics. Lessons of the past have been forgotten it seems.
          That is not at all unique.
          HinH posts a big map of mileage between China and San Diego, as if miles is the measure of risk of confrontation/conflict. Par for the course on comments of stupidity.

          1. America has a vested interest in stopping us bickering on the continent. I’d hate for you guys to have to come break up a modern Napoleonic war with nukes.

            Though given our militaries, I imagine we’d be throwing rocks and sticks at people anyway.

      2. OFM , ” There’s a very real possibility that within the next few decades the world political situation will evolve into a bipolar scenario with the USA and allies versus China and her allies similar to the Cold War scenario between the the USA and our allies versus the old USSR and her allies.

        Hopefully nukes won’t fly. ” — Me Too .
        In the meanwhile the waiting list to join Brics grows . Bipolar world .

        1. Sort of scary looking map, if you happen to believe as I do that empires hard or soft come and go.

          Our current Western alliance “soft ” empire may well be on it’s way out, as far as dominating the world stage is concerned, but I don’t see us in any serious danger of aggressive war on the grand scale in the near to medium term, except possibly due to Russia invading one or another nearby neighboring country if Putin gets away with his invasion of Ukraine.

          Another such invasion could morph into a hot open war with NATO troops on the ground.

          I refer to it as “soft” because although we do use our military and economic power to get what we want, we don’t normally go in for genocide, or invade peaceful countries unless we PERCEIVE them as being a danger to our own security.

          Russia with the power we have would have occupied the Middle Eastern countries with oil back when Stalin was still running the show.

          1. OFM , this will be the last great conventional war , War’s require surplus energy and the world has run out of that . War’s cannot be fought with renewables . I have discussed this with Mike S on his blog . The SPR is now 290 million barrels deduct 25 % as sludge ( as calculated by Late Matt Simmons) then it is only 220 million barrels . Domestic refinery input is 16 mbpd which means 15 days output . This is a peace time back of the envelop calculation . If the output goes into fighting wars not more then 5 days . The current war has gone long enough because Russia continued to ship out 6 mbpd of its oil export and continued supplying gas to EU via pipelines that pass thru Ukraine allowing Ukraine to collect transit fee . Why did Putin not switch it off ? I don’t know the answer . The Russians play chess , Chinese Mah Jong , Koreans Goh and US video games . The realization by the 3 world major powers that long term conventional warfare is no longer feasible is a sword that can cut both ways , pursue peace or go nuclear and wipeout mankind . Hopefully sanity will prevail . Your thoughts appreciated .

    3. “The relationship between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States of America (U.S.) has been complex since the establishment of the PRC and the retreat of the government of the Republic of China (ROC) to Taiwan in 1949.

      President Franklin D. Roosevelt made support of China against Japan a high priority after 1938. The US was allied to the Republic of China (ROC) during the Pacific War against Japan (1941–1945). Washington tried and failed to negotiate a compromise between the Nationalist government and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 1945–1947. After the victory of the CCP in the Chinese Civil War and declaration of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 by Mao Zedong, the relations turned hostile. The two nations fought each other during Korean War. The US refused to recognize the legitimacy of the PRC and continued to recognize the ROC based in Taiwan as the legitimate government of China. The US blocked the PRC’s membership in the United Nations until President Richard Nixon’s 1972 visit to China marked an unexpected reversal of positions. On January 1, 1979, the US established diplomatic relations with the PRC and recognized it as the sole legitimate government of China. However, it continued unofficial warm relations with Taiwan within the framework of the Taiwan Relations Act. The political status of Taiwan continues to be a major source of contention.

      In the late 1950s, Mao could not tolerate the anti-Stalinist program led by Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. Ideological tensions escalated between Beijing and Moscow almost to the verge of war.[36] In nearly all capitalist countries and colonies, communist movements split between the old established pro-Moscow element and the more radical upstart pro-Beijing Maoists. Although still not friendly to the United States, Mao realized that the American anti-Soviet posture in the Cold War was to his advantage as long as China was militarily much less powerful than the neighboring Soviet Union.[37]

      It was Deng Xiaoping who founded the strategic framework for the “engagement” between the U.S. and China. By the end of the Cultural Revolution, China’s economy was at the edge of collapse, shaking the foundation of the CCP’s rule. China’s subsequent rapid economic development and tremendous changes are inseparable from the help of the US government and the American people in areas such as science, technology, education, culture, and economics. Cai said that Deng chose the “engagement policy” because China could rely on the strength of the US to hedge against Soviet threats.[38]”

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China–United_States_relations#:~:text=The two nations fought each,the legitimate government of China.

      1. Deng also carried out a land reform that (sort of) freed vast numbers of Chinese from the danwei system and allowed them to set up the “rural enterprises”. It sparked a massive economic boom.

        1. It sparked a massive economic boom.
          And it hasn’t stopped.
          The revolution of 1948 is still with us.

    5. Hole in Head – I think what OFM means is that the US is the Darwinian super-predator, and therefore any species (read: country) that would interfere or even potentially interfere with anything the US would want to do is an existential threat and therefore would need to be “considered a problem”. Sadly, this is probably how people in the military, State Department and intelligence services of the US think. Thank god we aren’t Russia!

  7. https://english.elpais.com/spain/2023-05-19/the-nine-hours-in-which-spain-made-the-100-renewable-dream-a-reality.html

    “The Spanish power grid on Tuesday tasted an appetizer of the renewable energy banquet that is expected to flourish in the coming years. For nine hours, between 10 a.m. and 7 p.m., the generation of green electricity was more than enough to cover 100% of Spanish peninsular demand, a milestone that had already been reached on previous occasions, but not for such a prolonged period”

    It’s not at all out of the question to power most of Western Europe with mostly wind and solar power.

    All that’s necessary is that we collectively stay on the job.

    Wind farms and solar farms can be substituted for tanks and planes, by way of reducing the need for guaranteed access to imported fossil fuel…….. while keeping some or most of the money at home, or at least spending it in friendly countries.

    Tanks and planes wear out and go obsolete. Wind and solar farms are pretty much forever, because they can be rebuilt or refurbished to good as new or BETTER for a rather minor fraction of the cost of building new ones from scratch.

    Local wind and solar farms , plus local distribution lines and storage systems, mean local tax revenues and local jobs for both skilled and unskilled workers.

    Every barrel saved, every cubic meter saved, means less revenue for exporting countries that to put it as mildly as possible, are NOT our friends.

    And of course every saved barrel and cubic meter mean something in terms of preserving what’s left of the global environment.

        1. You guys are showing your true feelings. Somehow I suspect you aren’t smart enough to understand that such remarks indicate that you really don’t give a fuck about what happens to other people in other places.

          1. Russia’s greatest army is their internet trolls

            Hitler died from a “Hole in Head”

          2. I’m sorry my total lack of pretending Internet comments will save us is so devastating to you. Evolution taught me to be this way. If it helps, I hear ignoring bad news means the problems just kinda self solve. That’s the only reason to doubt climate change, because if it is and existential threat, why is no one doing anything about it?

            Maybe if we all band together really hard and just post, the world will give us the utopian collection of infinite resources and clean, stable biosphere we so need. I’m willing to go that extra step.

            1. In a lost thread on a forgotten corner of internet, I have to say OFM’s comment – “MORALITY is an abstraction” – is as accurate and correct an explanation of our human condition that I have read in a while, or perhaps ever. Shades of Ron.

            2. Hey Kleiber, your reading comprehension sucks. No one said posting would save the world. What he said was that your posts show that you don’t give a shit about others. I can second that that is clear. It starts with giving a shit about yourself. try it.

    2. OFM

      I don’t know what is going on with the pro Russia commentary here.

      Pricing in the electricity market would have to be highly variable when a lot of renewable energy is introduced. The prices going negative or just barely postive now, means that hydro power turbines would be turned off in western/south Norway at places where there are substantial excess magazine capacity and where the interconnector cables to other countries are situated (with purpose). So it will fill to the max guaranteed this summer. Whether we have enough energy storable capacity would ofcourse be the hurdle going forward for a more renewable centric world. Still, in order for the grid to work, high prices are needed to encourage extra capacity in whatever form to start contributing when supply is below demand (especially in winter). The consumer would have to somehow adapt in the end.

      1. I don’t know what is going on with the pro Russia commentary here.
        It’s mostly Kleiber. It seems very important to him to prove Russia is winning and Putin is strong.

        1. Are you being wilfully dense?

          Not quite sure how pointing out how many times the media have been wrong counts as pro-Russia. You guys keep grandstanding the people that were saying Russia would run out of ammo by June (2022) and Putin has cancer or whatever.

          Meanwhile, looks like Russia took Bakhmut. Maybe you’ve heard. Or was it a feint by UAF all along? Hard to tell with the reporting on this.

          Using your logic, anyone pointing out oil production increases is also denying peak oil is possible. Truly mega minds here, lol.

          1. It seems very important to him to prove Russia is winning and Putin is strong. No , Kleiber has nothing to prove . Anybody like to give answers to the questions below :
            1 . Out of 23 days of May , Zelensky was in Ukraine for only 5/6 days . See his timeline ,
            Finland 3rd May , Netherlands 4-5 May , Italy 13 th May ,Berlin 14th May , France 14th May , UK 15th May , Saudi Arabia 19th May , Japan 20th May . He is commander in chief of a country at war . Why did he visit Italy , France and UK when he was already scheduled to meet Meroni , Macron and Sunak in Hiroshima a week later ? Telling them it is over ? Why is he running from Kiev ? Afraid of a bomb or assassination .
            2 . Why did he go UNINVITED to Saudi for ARAB league meeting ? He is not an Arab . Is he so stupid that he does not know that the big players in the Arab League are also members of OPEC + and on good terms with Vladimir Putin ? What was his motive because he was not even given a photo op and totally ignored .
            3 . Now the big one . Where is the Army Chief General Zaluzhny ? Not seen since May 10 . Missed the meeting of NATO commanders at Ramstein on 12 th May . No appearance even after the loss of Bakhmut . Did they put a bullet thru his head or has he jumped ship because he was aware it is sinking . If this is true then the war is over .
            https://euroweeklynews.com/2023/05/20/commander-in-chief-of-ukrainian-armed-forces-said-to-be-in-critical-condition-after-being-wounded/
            I can post several links on this news . Hope one is enough .

            1. More questions .
              1. Where are the two spokespersons named Budanov ( Spy Chief) and Podolyak ( Special advisor to Zelensky ) who were/are on Ukraine TV every night . Not seen since the fall of Bakhmut i.e 18th May . Are they also on the run .?
              2. No video of Zelensky returning to Kiev from Hiroshima ? No TV or web appearance since 20th May in Hiroshima . He is one who never misses a photo op .

            2. Zaluzhny’s disappearance is telling.
              He is probably dead.
              Zelensky is afraid to be in the Ukraine, for obvious reasons.
              We shall see–

          2. We’ve been on this forum long enough to know there isn’t much intellectual honesty or consistency. Not that everything they say I disagree with but on certain topics you get a high level of ideological auto reaction. Not much conscious thought going on there I don’t think. I thought our comments were neutral and rational enough to avoid the histamine / allergic reaction. But I guess even suggesting that the Russians might do anything remotely competently is to side with pure evil. Which means the Russians are simultaneously pure evil, the greatest threat to humanity and 💯 incompetent at all times. I know, it’s a tough circle to square but the folks at peakoilbarrel.com are ON IT!!!

            1. I haven’t noticed any body in particular here saying the Russians are totally incompetent in every respect.

              But for sure most of us understand that Russia is a wholly owned and operated subsidiary of the current Russian Mafia type government, after a manner of speaking.

              It’s pretty damned obvious that Putin and his guys have made one huge mistake after another for the last year or so, beginning with the invasion of Ukraine.

              They may yet get away with it, but personally I think otherwise.

              But in any case, they have done Russia more harm in terms of her standing on the world stage than Ukraine is could possibly be worth to the oligarchs running the show.

              This invasion alone is one of the biggest and sharpest possible chunks of broken brick upside the world’s collective head I can imagine….. referring to my often repeated need for a SERIES of such broken bricks as Pearl Harbor Wake Up Events.

              This invasion in and of itself means Russia will be taking in substantially less revenue from here on out selling oil and gas. It means the NATO countries are finally acting rationally…… in terms of taking care of their own energy security, not to mention their PHYSICAL security.

    3. but Spain isn’t our “friend” either – they are not the dominant super-predator. they aren’t the US. why are you not supporting the bombing of spain? Is it just rascism? or is it that spain is so compliant, like a Remora cleaning a shark’s teeth and therefore are good? Or is it that they keep the place in good shape in case a US citizen wants to visit? I’m just trying to understand the mind of the American Psychopath. thanks for any insight.

      1. If anybody is willing to explain Two Cat’s ten twenty four am comment, I’m all ears.

        1. There are quite a few places around the globe that doesn´t tell time in ET. In fact, most don´t!
          Edit: to clarify, I´m not mainly talking about time zones, so figure it out.

  8. It was a warm sunny weekend in Europe, and electricity prices crashed in many places. In the Netherlands the day ahead auction price fell to nearly -€60 per megawatt hour mid afternoon on Saturday. In Germany the price was under – €40

    https://www.epexspot.com/en/market-data?market_area=&trading_date=2023-05-20&delivery_date=2023-05-21&underlying_year=&modality=Auction&sub_modality=DayAhead&technology=&product=60&data_mode=map&period=&production_period=

    Meanwhile the Price in the UK was about €67. There was a €125 price difference between the UK and the Netherlands. Since it is only about 65km away, they are building a new interlink.

    1. We´ve had a few days here in northern Sweden with NEGATIVE prices at times, and for the full day yeaterday, the first, so I guess renewable power is a non starter… /s
      https://www.nordpoolgroup.com/en/Market-data1/#/nordic/table
      If you can´t read dates, it`s the third one from the top, next one is tomorrow, basically too cheap to meter, and we also recently got a refund for the cost during winter to boot.
      (at the time of the highest prices during early winter we were still exporting quite a lot to continental europe, so energy crisis my ***)

    1. well there aren’t that many people in the desert. and none of these people are going to be willing to give up their pick up trucks. full disclosure: my family lives in a fairly remote desert community close to Mojave.

    2. Great article. I’ve been harping on this for a long time. Those who have not lived in or around the desert never seem to understand. They throw up charts showing that “primary production” is lower in the desert than other ecosystems, and then use that to justify paving the place for solar panels.

      I’ll say it again: the desert is a beautiful place, brimming with life. It is one of our great inheritances, and as the article states, destroying it is as big a tragedy as destroying the redwoods or the rainforest. Every year millions of people travel to the desert to experience it’s beauty. Due to the harsh environment, it’s often one of the natural landscapes least touched by human hands, leaving it to be enjoyed by all of us who admire it.

      Personally, I head to the desert for a camping trip at least once a year. Perhaps not as relaxing as camping in the forest, but it always leaves me feeling rejuvenated. I’d hate to see it’s continued destruction.

    3. I posted a comment with the Guardian when that article was running, but I can’t find it to repost it here.

      I’ve donated some money to this paper a time or two. It’s a great paper.

      But nevertheless, the editors manage to fuck up royally quite often, by running pieces like this one that are ENTIRELY one sided tear jerker talking points.

      There’s not a goddamned word in this entire article, and seldom ever a word in an entire ISSUE of the Guardian that tells it like it is, getting right down to the bedrock nitty gritty hard facts.

      First off, there’s approximately zero acknowledgement of the actual cost of going solar on the grand scale and the absolute NECESSITY of making the money we spend on this transition go as far as possible as fast as possible.

      The reality is that putting in solar farms out the ying yang out in the desert is by far and away the best use of the money by a factor of not less than two or three and probably somewhere between five and ten.

      It costs a bloody fucking fortune, on a per kilowatt hour generated using roof tops and backyards, compared to putting in panels by the square mile out in the desert.

      Of course there’s an environmental price to be paid.

      But it’s a goddamned sight smaller price than raising corn to make moonshine to run cars or removing mountains to get coal, or hauling trees a couple of hundred miles and shipping them across the ocean to burn them in Europe.

      Nobody whatsoever is actually going to be happy if the lights go out.

      We’re going to keep the lights on, or die trying, and we had best do it as cheaply as possible, because there’s NEVER been enough money to do everything we should, or do everything right.

      There’s no cheaper way of keeping the lights on than by going solar on the grand scale in sunny desert climates.

      I’m not at all opposed to rooftop solar. I’m all for making it work as well as it can, as soon as it can…… but sending out a couple of sales men to write estimates, then the contractor to draw up plans, then have the plans approved, then sending three or four men for a day or two or a week getting the panels physically in place, then having an electrician wire them up, then having the inspector back………..

      well the same amount of manpower puts in ten or even twenty times as many panels using standardized procedures, and the whole thing gets wired up ten times faster……

      And if the plants living there are storing carbon, which no doubt they are…….. well whats down there in that dry desert soil is going to stay there one hell of a long time, and those solar panels are going to OFFSET ten twenty, fifty times as much CO2 production as the creosote bushes………. because otherwise, we’re going to be burning natural gas …….. a depleting resource desperately needed for other purposes…….. such as manufacturing nitrate fertilizers…….

      Because without those nitrates……. we’re looking at starvation, wholesale, on a global basis.

      We’ve gotten ourselves into a situation where we’re damned if we do, and damned if we don’t.

      So……. we’ve got to do what we have to do to survive short term……. otherwise the long term is an abstraction quaintly referred to as an ” academic question”.

      1. The Grauniad (sic) was better 20 years ago. Nowadays, it more often than not accidentally makes good content, but the rest of the stuff is still more or less promoting BAU. There’s a reason it’s seen as the woke prompting, middle-class urban PMC supporting paper in contrast to the bigoted, gutter press of The Mail.

        The problem is they still won’t publish stuff about cutting back on things and embracing simpler lives and fewer people, not even Monbiot could get column space for that.

  11. On Ukraine: Bakhmut is the 59th largest city in Ukraine and the Russians lost at least 20k KIA to almost capture it. The entire place is basically leveled now. Only a baby-brain would see this as a victory.

    Just for scale, Ukrainian KIA is estimated to be 17.5K for the entire war.

    It is morally permissible for Ukraine to defend itself. It is morally permissible for others to assist Ukraine in defending itself.

    1. Hot off the Press

      The Free Russia Legion, made up of Russians fighting on the side of the Ukrainian Army, has crossed into Russia in the Belgorod region and has taken control of three settlements Kozinka, Glotove, Gora-Podil

      Heavy fighting is taking place for control of Greyvoron.

      The way this war most likely ends is with a strong buffer zone on the Russian side of the border and revolt/revolution inside Russia.

    2. Survivalist , believe what you will if that will console you . There is a word “hopium” now another one called “copium ” to assist you come over the loss of Bakhmut .

      1. Hole in the Head.
        The totality of your comments on this site gives a clear impression that you are gleeful
        at news and prospects of disruption and chaos, and even more so when it affects
        ‘western’ countries and democracies.
        Ironic since you fled to one of these such countries.
        You should migrate to Russia, or Burma. You could be a regime pom pom boy.
        You would have been one of the people eagerly licking Hitlers boots and collaborating with the gestapo as his armies sterilized your region.
        Thats how you look to me.
        Not a fan.

    3. This is a good read: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/05/29/two-weeks-at-the-front-in-ukraine

      Within weeks, the battalion faced annihilation: entire platoons had been wiped out in close-contact firefights, and some seventy men had been encircled and massacred. The dwindling survivors, one officer told me, “became useless because they were so tired.” In January, what was left of the battalion retreated from the village and established defensive positions in the tree lines and open farmland a mile to the west. “Wagner kicked our asses,” the officer said.

      ***

      He was a forty-two-year-old father of three who managed a grain elevator in a small farming community in central Ukraine. Men who have three children are legally exempt from conscription but, in December, Artem was still in the process of adopting one of his daughters when he was summoned by his local draft board. A physician, citing a skull fracture that Artem had once suffered during an ice-skating accident, deemed him medically unfit to serve; the board dispatched him to a military training center anyway. His training lasted a month and consisted of tutorials and marching drills—“theoretical stuff, nothing practical.” He shot a total of thirty rounds during two trips to a firing range. From the training center, Artem was assigned to the 28th Brigade, and a day after joining Pavlo’s infantry battalion he was on the Zero Line.

  12. So…… you’re basically saying Ukraine, and Ukrainian citizens, are in a life and death struggle where in men have to fight with inadequate training and without enough other men and equipment.
    I suppose you think it would be better for them to just lay down their arms and see their wives and daughters raped, their small children taken away to be raised by Russians, their homes and livelihoods destroyed……..

    When I read such an account, it makes me wish I were in a position to do more to help than donate a few bucks here and there to help them.

    1. China offered to chair peace talks. If you want people to stop being killed, peace tends to be a good move.

      Or we can keep donating arms and vehicles and hope Russia runs out of fresh bodies before Ukraine does.

      I’m now of the opinion that too much grinding is going on and Ukraine has lost any momentum it had end of last year, and a Russia knows this, so is playing the time card. They can sit and do this and run down the clock and/or see how many more men get drafted to fight for mixed gains.

      1. Not until Putin goes down. Hole in Head works fine. Just like his friend Hitler who was in the same foxhole.

        Eye for an Eye. You have to think big picture and remove the cancer before you can heal.

        He’s to much of a cowed to do the right thing himself like his internet trolls and Trump.

        The International Criminal Court in the Hague has issued an arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin. It accuses him of being responsible for war crimes in Ukraine, including the unlawful deportation of children.

        1. It would be great to have him in The Hague to stand trial for everything he has done (just as Bush and Blair should have, for that matter), but I don’t see him ending up like Milošević or Saddam. He’s going to hang on to power as long as possible, groom an heir (if it isn’t already Medvedev) and potentially carry on this state of affairs. Maybe, if we’re lucky, whoever takes over pulls out of Ukraine, or at the very least ceases any hostilities. But that comes with a horrible realisation for the Russians that were onboard with this “SMO”, that everything was for nothing, that their children or husbands ended up in a ditch, dead, with no real net gain.

          And at that point, I can see the other side taking over and replacing the incumbents with seething at the mouth fascist nationalists of a different brand. It’s kinda like how some people in the UK are pissed at Brexit not being these fabled sunlit uplands, so now they’re blaming the Tories for not being right wing enough! the reason Brexit was shit? We weren’t doing an authoritarianism enough. Cannot possibly have buyers remorse and consider the idea terrible. Must be we got soft or something on Johnny Foreigner and benefits claimants etc.

          1. https://www-ft-com.ezp.lib.cam.ac.uk/content/a7e9e341-a05d-4fd8-a1c1-e76492ea96e0

            A paywall article, though here are some key snippets to take note of:

            Much of the announced military aid to Ukraine from Western governments has been sourced from equipment that would have gone out of service any way, Watling said. “Most of what we have given is stuff we have already paid for a long time ago, and we would have had to pay to decommission it …

            Before the war, U.S. production stood at 14,500 shells per month, and E.U. production was around the same. The United States has been faster to respond to depleting stockpiles, boosting domestic production to 20,000 rounds a month and investing in new capacity to eventually increase that to 90,000 rounds per month. […] Russia is on course to produce 2.5 million artillery shell rounds this year, up from 1.7 million rounds before the war, Watling said.

            “Russia has the capacity to mobilize its own economy in support of the armed forces and control its own destiny in a way that Ukraine can’t,” said Barrons. “The critical weakness” for Ukraine “is its reliance on Western inventory and industry.”

            This was what I was worrying about when the lack of equipment getting to Ukraine got talked about a while back. What little was pledged is turning up too slowly, is not combat effective, has too many maintenance and training implications, or is simply in too few numbers to make an effective fighting force.

  13. So much attention (and money) is going toward hydrogen as a fuel.
    I listened to an hour long podcast on hydrogen and not once did they mention that it is not a fuel source, just an energy storage medium, like a charged battery.
    As far as I can tell, the energy story with hydrogen is poor.
    Electrolyzers to produce hydrogen might get up to about 80% efficient, and then on the other end fuel cells to convert hydrogen to electricity are about 50% efficient. Of the starting energy you are down to about 40% before you even put it through an electric motor.
    And the cost for these pieces of equipment are very high. The transport and storage of hydrogen is far from simple or cheap.

    Seems the world is rushing towards a big system with very poor attributes. It may be a more attractive system in a place where surplus energy is very abundant and for some reason hydrogen was the only alternative for energy storage…..some other planet.

    1. Hickory
      You are right about the very poor attributes, however in a world without fossil fuels it represents about the only feasible route to:

      – produce ammonia for the N in NPK
      – generate the combustion temperatures to produce cement
      – generate the temperatures and reducing atmosphere for smelting iron, and several other metals
      – generate the temperatures in a clean environment to produce high quality porcelain for insulators
      – Replace acetylene in welding applications
      -etc. etc.

      We are going to need hydrogen to have any chance of sustaining an industrial/technological civilization.
      Will it be cheap ? Not a chance.
      Will it scale up to maintain BAU? Not a chance.

      It may, however , enable a small sliver of the population to sustain an industrial/technological existence.

      1. There will fossil fuel available for all of these specific purposes for decades.
        Natural gas and NGL’s are currently abundant, and have a long tail of production yet to come.

        Converting solar or wind or nuclear electricity into hydrogen might be desired in 2050 and beyond
        however it remains to be seen if there will be such abundance of energy at that time
        that would justify such inefficient conversion losses to make it worth it.

        From right here and now, it looks to me like the money and effort would be much better spent elsewhere.

        1. Hickory
          You are right about the long tail of hydrocarbons, but there will be fierce demand for that tail, and little incentive to invest any of it beyond day-to-day existence.
          If there is an abundance of energy by 2050, it will be electrical, useless for some of the functions performed by hydrocarbons at the present time, and it will take decades to adapt those functions to work with hydrogen at an industrial scale.

  14. Global sea ice coverage is back to setting new daily records. In the Antarctic most days this year have been record lows, and by relatively wide margins, The Arctic has had quite high coverage by recent standards but that is all changing and judging by the expected weather the high melt period (i.e. when 100,000 km2 daily losses are common) is starting about a month early with temperature anomalies of 20 and even 30 degrees high affecting the Hudson Bay and western Siberia. One reason for recent high areas is that a lot of ice was pushed into the Greenland Sea, where it is doomed eventually no matter what, but judging by the high temperature there its melting is going to be quite fast now.

    There was a research paper recently showing that the top of atmosphere is cooling faster than expected. This leads to a shrinking of the thickness and a loss of ozone over the Artic, which, if it isn’t happening already, will lead to accelerated warming at the surface there. Like the other recent paper showing the likely near term collapse of the southern overturning circulation this is a very high consequence feedback that is not considered in IPCC reports, and is another mechanism that may explain the higher than predicted (by current models) paleological warming seen with relatively low green house gas increases that Hansen et. al. have been warning of.

    https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/

    https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/?mdl_id=gfs&dm_id=arc-lea&wm_id=t2

    1. HT , I was wondering why you and me are on the same page for Ukraine . I have the answer . MoA is the only blog for serious Ukraine war analysis now that The Saker has retired . Comforting to know that sanity still exists in the world of stupidity . Be well .

      1. I try and keep quiet, as we have a very narrow and historically challenged group.
        They know so much more on petroleum issues than I do, so I value that.
        A degree in Russian History from UC doesn’t help me to be ignorant on the subject.

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