166 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, December 23, 2022”

  1. Have a look at Williston ND (Bakken) Weather. In the next 30 days, they have two days above zero. On Dec, 27 and Dec, 28 it is supposed to get up to 4 degrees. But the other 28 days it never gets above zero.

    Williston ND, (Bakken), 30 day weather forecast.

    In the next 30 days, there will be 3 days of snow days of snow, 26 days’ Temp below -10°, the Max Temp is 4°(27-Dec, 28-Dec) and the Min Temp is -30°(23-Dec).

    1. I am in awe of how those who had no modern homes or fuel lived up in that area
      before the invasion-
      Blackfoot, Lakota, Crow, Cheyenne and all the others.

      1. I make a point of looking into what peeps were doing in the area before European contact came along. Around here it’s Kutenai, and a bit to the south Nez Perce. Fascinating history.

          2. “In some regions, the Indigenous peoples created monumental architecture, large-scale organized cities, city-states, chiefdoms, states, kingdoms, republics,[33] confederacies, and empires. Some had varying degrees of knowledge of engineering, architecture, mathematics, astronomy, writing, physics, medicine, planting and irrigation, geology, mining, metallurgy, sculpture, and gold smithing.”

            Savages, am I right fellas?

            As a general rule, idiocy is not tolerated on this board, so we’d all appreciate if you fucked off.

        2. I can’t remember the name, but about 20 years ago, a book came out describing the arrival of Columbus, Pizzarro, etc., to the new world, but didn’t use any European sources, they only used local sources.
          When Europeans first saw Mexico City, they were amazed by the size and complexity of the city. Mexico City at the time was the largest city in the world.

          2. A recently published book of interest, “Indigenous Continent: The Epic Contest for North America”, by Pekka Hamalainen, discusses Indians in a context different than I’d ever had thought. Basically asserts that the North Central US Indian population was an empire and it wasn’t vanquished by disease, superior weaponry (weapons were superior, but were acquired by the natives as well) as we’re all led to believe; it was but the outnumbering of the natives by the newcomers from everywhere else. The book eludes that by the time of their defeat in 1890 there were well over four thousand settlers for every Lakota.

    2. Ron, those temperatures are in Celsius.
      Not unusual given time of year.

        1. Cold enough to put some real hurt on anybody working in the oil and gas fields.

  2. The December 20 episode of Radio Ecoshock features Paul Ehrlich, Bill Rees and Nate Hagens.

  5. This is WAY off topic, but I’m a preschooler when it comes to computerizing and automating a business such as Twitter.

    I really don’t see any reason why Twitter would need a huge number of white collar workers.

    Maybe Musk’s plan is to get rid of most of the existing staff, already accomplished, or soon to be accomplished, and replace them by way of automation, or by outsourcing essential work.

    This would still leave him in control of the company of course.

    It occurs to me that this strategy might possibly put Twitter into the black in the not so distant future.

    ?????

    Or could it be that he expects to use Twitter as a weapon, to get what he wants, personally……… which could be political power. ????

    Understanding, or at least some insight into such questions may help me and others to understand what’s happening and might happen in the world over the next few years.

    1. I feel the acquisition of Twitter is part of a political strategy to obtain a large Soap Box, so to speak. Twitter is well put together for use as an amplifier. Musk loves volume.
      What Musk doesn’t understand is that Twitter is an advertising business, not a Free Reach For Free Speech platform; and that Proctor & Gamble don’t want their Pampers ads appearing next to berserker antisemitic screeds. Advertisers are fleeing.
      Many commenting here seem to want to forget Musk, but back when he was an up and comer they adored him, and his hopes. I feel it’s now more important than ever to discuss Musk as he has evolved into an influencer of toxic political discord. Musk is now viewed as compromised.
      Twitter has gone to shit. Way more bots and spam DMs. Way more rip off ads for marked up Amazon and Walmart crap. I saw a toy ad being promoted on Twitter for $40 regular $80. It’s $20 at Walmart. Quality advertising clients have bugged out.
      Musk is gonna train wreck. He’s a Man Baby Red Pilled MAGA Qtard. I wonder about Margin Call? Twitter is gonna cost him a bundle. I understand he borrowed quite a bit from some Saudi’s.

      How Elon Musk financed his $44bn Twitter takeover
      https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/economy/2022/10/28/how-elon-musk-financed-his-twitter-takeover

      Elon Musk Is Now Promoting QAnon
      https://www.vice.com/amp/en/article/y3pjkw/elon-musk-is-now-promoting-qanon

      As Elon Musk embraces far-right, QAnon on Twitter, Tesla feels the pain
      https://www.kcrw.com/news/shows/press-play-with-madeleine-brand/twitter-wajahat-ali-film-chantal-akerman/elon-musk-far-right

      Elon Musk tells his 121m Twitter fans to follow QAnon, literally the worst people in the world
      https://www.thepinknews.com/2022/12/16/elon-musk-qanon-twitter-white-rabbit/

      “If you have a reckless CEO who can’t be fired because it would ‘hurt the company’, then you don’t really have a company; you have a cult.”

    2. IMO, it was an EGO move. He over paid big time.

      Targeted advertisment is not a great industry because it could easily get outlawed, people hate it, its a violation of personal privacy and ad blockers can be installed for free.

      Musk is surrounded by YES men who tell him how great he is all day long.

      Technically, their challenge is scalability and mining data on their users so that they send them the relavent ads.

      I would think you could do it with 100 – 200 developers if they are writing in house software (writing their databases, analytics, messaging from scratch), if they are using open source / 3rd party vendors they should be able to do with 20.

      I could put a simple Twitter system together in a few months using free software. My SQL database, Google Analytics and whatever free texting software is out there.

        1. No doubt he masterbates while reading his enemies personal information.

          But from a pure business stand point it was dumb.

          If he has a brilliant idea outside of targeted advertising, he should have started a new company with his great new idea and saved 44 billion.

        1. “I could put a simple Twitter system together”

          The site you that you posted your comment on, http://www.peakoilbarrel.com is allowing you to post comments, like Twitter from around the world.

          We could run analytics on the database sitting behind this site and at a minimum determine keywords that might reveal a relevant ad ……..like for example OIL, CLIMATE CHANGE, NATURAL GAS, PERMIAN

          Then we take your ip address and sell it to companies that want to know more about you.

          What is so hard about that?.

          1. Well let’s take your example.

            First, POB does not have close to the capabilities of Twitter. There are no customized feeds, no subscribing, no personalized pages, bare minimum accounts, no likes, no retweets, no comment history on a per user basis. Then there’s all the “under the hood”. Where is POB’s security? Does POB need to worry about the repercussions of Joe Biden’s account being hacked? What about translations to different languages? Does POB need to work flawlessly, according to rules and regulations in different localities, for 100 different nations? Does POB send you a notification of a new comment? Does POB group your comments according to tags? Does POB tell you when your comment is trending? Does POB handle an influx of 1 million plus users without slowing down? Does POB allow you to send a message to all your followers? Does POB have direct messages? Does POB have a highly stylized web interface? Does POB handle DDOS attacks… Honestly the list of things Twitter does that POB does not even have a software concept of would take many pages to write out.

            Run analytics… Okay. What about running a real time scan of latency for each HTTP request to POB? What about keeping that history, making it searchable, and graphing it, for any time period up to 3 months ago, linking those requests to users, linking those requests to relevant error logs, grouping those errors under incidents, grouping front end logs with backend logs, making those histories searchable. Hmm, what about classifying latency times that are 2 deviations above the mean, and sending an alert to engineers when that threshold is crossed? What about automatically adjusting parameters to increase the number of backends serving requests that fit this form when a threshold is crossed? Can we automate the process of applying these tools to other metrics? What if our devs need a way to follow these high latency requests through the entirety of Twitter’s systems, and graph the request propagation? Can we identify what semi-related processes are being impacted by these latency spikes?… And that was all off the top of my head, just for the idea of tracking request latency for the front end. I could repeat that process for each of thousands of different metrics. How often users mention oil… Okay, but how is that useful? Are there trends in users mentioning that? Do we need to filter out noise? Do the Holidays change these rates. How does this affect sales? Hmm, the sales team probably needs a tool to access this data. Should it be an http interface? What does their client look like? Do we need analytics on that?

            Etc… The point you are missing is SCALE. Sure, I could whip up a Twitter like messaging app in a month. But no one would use it, it would be bug central, it wouldn’t have any useful data, and it would crash the first time it went viral.

            100-200 devs could in no way effectively build and run Twitter as it is today. It’s a far, far bigger problem than you’re giving it credit for. By the way, WordPress, which is responsible for running the tech of POB (a tech set that is FAR reduced compared to Twitter’s) has over 2000 employees as revealed by a Google search. I’d bet that WordPress has more than 200 devs. And they are serving a far smaller user base a far smaller set of features.

            1. “The point you are missing is SCALE” – Niko

              “Technically, their challenge is scalability and mining data on their users so that they send them the relavent ads.” Peak Avo

              The reference to POB was not to say they could compete with TWITTER.

              It was to say that the technology to put something together is already there.

              “There are no customized feeds, no subscribing, no personalized pages, bare minimum accounts, no likes, no retweets, no comment history on a per user basis.”

              This doesn’t require 2000 developers

              ” Okay. What about running a real time scan of latency for each HTTP request to POB? What about keeping that history, making it searchable “

              This is easy if the data is stored in a enterprise operational database (Oracle). Databases dealt with things called transactions and synchronize things all the time (banks, telecomms)

              I am talking strictly about development. Not political, legal, operational or marketing issues

              The entire point of bringing up POB is that you can get an approximation of what twitter does with what is out there.

            2. The original post asked how many white collar workers were needed, not how many devs.

              And I know you don’t believe me, and that’s fine, we’ll just have to agree to disagree. As someone who actively works on a large system akin in many ways to Twitter, I believe 2000 devs is absolutely justified. But I’m clearly not going to convince you.

              Thanks for the interesting discussion.

              FWIW, the website I work on has 10,000 devs.

            3. Twitter could switch off, and other than the news it would generate, I’d never even really know. And that’s the way it is for most of us.

              I learned the fickleness of social media at an early age – long before MySpace, even before Fido-Net. So it was, back in the 1980s, I ran a Bulletin Board System (BBS) as a kid in High School – it was the town’s “most popular” one as we Sysops would share data and they’d all concede I was the winner. Summertime calls/day would be as low as ten, wintertime, it could be nonstop with everyone on auto-dial to break through to the single phone line into my bedroom to reach my Apple ][ and read personal messages or read/post bulletins. Occasionally, I’d need to pirate some warez and that meant using long distance services downloading at 300 baud games like Choplifter, Lode Runner, etc., which could take all night. The phone bill could be a bit much for a kid to handle, so I’d announce a “pay to play” donation of, like $5. It turned out that every issuance, the only people who ever paid up were those who were new to the scene and didn’t realize the experience that although would be tailored to be unique from one BBS to another, was not enough to force someone to pay for it. Instead, the truth turned to be one experience was just as good as another, and free was the only way they would have it. Of course, I’d keep the non-paying ones otherwise all I would have would be the new players; Cap’n Crunch would be replaced by Dr. Hackenslash.

              I think this idea, that people will always migrate to alternatives however more/less holds true with today’s social media; only advertising will ever make any platform viable – either that or direct simulation of the cortex ala drugs/subliminal effects. Zuck is right, Facebook/Meta’s existence is threatened by a simple, new exciting platform TikTok; for me, FB/Meta’s superiority depends on getting becoming that new “drug” – will it be done with headsets, who knows, but it’s got to be more than browsing things that can exist elsewhere.

              Twitter could fly away, for all I have ever cared. Facebook too.

      3. I said I was done discussing, but I couldn’t help asking your opinion on the following:

        https://blog.twitter.com/engineering/en_us/topics/infrastructure/2017/the-infrastructure-behind-twitter-scale

        This is the VP of Infrastructure for Twitter talking about the engineering efforts made to scale Twitter. It dates to 2017, so we can assume Twitter has scaled quite far beyond this over the last 5 years. The efforts discussed span a period of 7 years, and include complete overhauls of the networking layer, massive global deployments of cloud server technologies in order to handle the processing of hundreds of millions of tweets per day, coordination of the processing power of thousands of data centers in a global network, multiple complete re-designs of cloud architecture, detailed monitoring and analytics of traffic with custom metrics and alerting, storage spread over 7 major systems including Hadoop, Manhattan, Graph, Blobstore, Redis and Memcache clusters, and SQL, as well as a custom caching later that makes up 3% of global infrastructure. This is just a tiny slice of impressions from the article. There’s much more there.

        You said “I could put a simple Twitter system together in a few months using free software. My SQL database, Google Analytics and whatever free texting software is out there.” Do you really think your solution could come anywhere close to handling what the system described above is capable of? If you say yes you’re either deluded, don’t know what you’re talking about, or are being willfully ignorant.

        1. I said a simple version.

          Sending messages, storing in a database, performing analytics to identify what are in their comments that may be relevant for advertisement.

          Using existing software

          A proof of concept.

          Not something to compete with Twitter directly.

          “over 7 major systems including Hadoop, Manhattan, Graph, Blobstore, Redis and Memcache clusters, and SQL”

          Quit trying to impress the readers with throwing about a bunch of software they don’t know what it is.

          The entire point of free open source software is to reduce or eliminate the completxity of building it from scratch and reducing the high costs of enterprise software.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truth_Social

          “The Truth Social platform uses a custom version of the free and open-source social network hosting software Mastodon as its backend, which omits several features, including polls and post visibility options.[52][53]”

          I am going to TWEET you now on POB…..

          TWEET!!!

          1. I think Niko has said ALOT of good value stuff. I am sure he is very intelligent and competent.

            I remember working at my first Enterprise Class software company and being scared shitless of

            1) FREE OPEN SOURCE
            2) AUTOMATED Database Administrators
            3) ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
            4) MACHINE LEARNING

            I thought, I aint gonna have a job in a few years if these come to fruition.

            If he is working at an AMAZING software company ( Facebook, Amazon, Ebay, Microsoft or Google???? ), I can understand why he wants 10,000 people developing an advanced text messaging system.

            Don’t worry my mate Niko, people of your intelligence will always be needed!!!!

      4. Peak Avocado
        What strikes me about Musk’s pruning of staff at Twitter is that is is exactly what he tried to do with Model 3 production. His idea was to fully automate the process and fire all the assembly line employees.
        Musk not only failed in this, he almost killed the company. He is trying the same thing with Twitter.

        Also he is tweeting things that strongly suggest he doesn’t understand how the system works. For example, he recently tweeted the system is a “fractal Rube Goldberg” device. I have been in the industry for decades and fielded a lot of comments and complaints about software. This fails the smell test. He thinks he’s being clever, but he’s really saying he doesn’t understand the system.

        So just looking from the outside, it doesn’t look good for Twitter right now.

    3. My comment is running into a spam filter, I’ve edited it and removed the parts which I thought might be offending the filters.

      Hi OFM,

      I can shed some light on “why Twitter would need a huge number of white collar workers.”

      I work for one of the largest software companies globally as a software engineer. The truth is, software is not nearly as “automated” as it appears. Maintaining a large and complex piece of software requires a ton of engineers, not to mention all the non-engineering roles that are essential. I’ll break down the various demands which require many workers.

      1. New features. Adding new features cannot be automated in any way, and will require many engineers, along with artists, lawyers, translators, managers, testers… You get the idea. These software systems are complex enough that making even small changes can be a full time job for quite a number of people. Now, it’s possible that Musk’s plan is to never add any new features, and then just keep Twitter running as is until competitors slowly take over. In that case, could it be largely automated and “run by itself”? Not even close. Why? Because

      1a) Changing legal requirements force the addition of features.
      1b) (For a website) Changing browser capabilities force the addition of features.
      1c) Changing OS capabilities force the addition of features.
      …

      I could go on, but you get the idea. There are any number of reasons why you as a software owner/operator will need to add features, and you can’t simply wish them away. And adding those features means engineers, artists, managers, lawyers… Etc.

      2. Compatibility with dependencies. I almost included this as 1d, but it’s such a big category it stands along. In short, complex software ALWAYS depends on other pieces of software. Even if I decide to stop changing MY software, those other softwares I depend on won’t make the same decision. Which means that they will change. Which might break my software, causing an error I have to fix. Or those other pieces of software might stop being maintained. Or fall out of legal compliance. Or… I’ll stop there. The point is that, since all software is changing, and all software is made of other software, then if my software stops changing, it will break. Soon. So I need a large number of engineers to keep everything working.

      3. Increase in users. If the number of users increases, then demand on the system increases. At some point the system will need to change to accommodate those users. Actually, this is a constant, demanding, and technically complex process. It’s called scaling, and it’s a full time job for many engineers (and all the rest). Paradoxically, the same is true in reverse, though to a much lesser extent. If my user base declines, I need engineers to handle it.

      4. Unexpected errors. Even in the absence of changing requirements, new features, or changing dependencies (libraries, etc.) sometimes things are just going to break. I need many engineers to fix these issues.

      5. Specialization. Software projects of this size are complex enough that different teams specialize to work on different parts. Basic example, the split between server engineers and web developers (front end) engineers. But specialization goes way further than that. So you can’t have a few geniuses who just do everything. That is simply not possible. You need teams of people working different aspects of the problem. For a social network of Twitter’s complexity I could easily imagine needing 50 or more different teams of engineers, each with their own roles and specializations.

      7. Hardware changes. I touched on this already, but software does not just automatically run on other hardware. Changes in hardware tech often require changes to software. Requiring software engineers.

      8. Speaking of hardware, you need more then just software engineers to run Twitter. Who is maintaining and designing your servers? Who is keeping the lights on? Etc. I won’t go on hear because non-software stuff is out of my wheelhouse.

      As I’ve said a number of times, I could go on. But I’ll stop. The point should be clear – maintaining a complex piece of software, even in the absence of willingly adding new features, requires a massive amount of technical know how and effort. It cannot simply “run itself”.

      The only way I can put Musk’s actions into a fully rational light is if I assume that his goal is destroying Twitter.

      Harder to swallow, and more sinister, is simply that this was a ploy to force more effort out of his workers through fear.

      To be honest I think he simply has no idea what he is doing with a large software enterprise. The difference between a social network like Twitter, and say a Tesla sales website, is orders of magnitude in terms of difficulty and complexity. Firing half your engineers, within WEEKS (far too little time to even understand the problem, let alone to assess the effectiveness of current solutions) is an absolutely absurd and shortsighted move.

      1. My estimate was 100-200 developers if the software is being written in-house is just for developers.

        It doesn’t include testers, database administrators, tech support, business analysts, marketing, lawyers, etc etc.

        Twitter is a big operation with its visibility and relevance. But software wise they are not doing anything revolutionary.

        The site we are chatting on proves it. Most sites I know have a comment section.

        Scalability ( The scale of the user base, disk space, performance ) is their major problem.

        Did Ron and Dennis write this site from scratch? I doubt it.

        Twitter might write their own stuff in certain areas so they have more control.

        But they could easily leverage Amazon Web Services (cloud computing), Oracle Database, Microsoft Analytics, Apache Web or a number of vendors if they are willing to cough up some money.

        20 – 40 million dollar project with a big consulting firm would get you off the ground to compete against TWITTER

        That’s ALOT less than 44 billion!!!

        1. In my opinion as someone with experience maintaining a highly scaled website, 100-200 devs for Twitter is far too few. I’d guess about an order of magnitude higher. 1000-2000 minimum. In reality I’d guess you would need around 2500 devs to build and maintain Twitter. And considering the number of employees Twitter had prior to musk, and the non-dev employees that were also invariably let go, I’d bet Twitter had somewhere around that number.

          BTW, building in-house does not necessitate more engineers in all cases. Often, building in house will lead to efficiencies that mean fewer engineers down the road. But you are focused primarily on assessing the needs of BUILDING Twitter, not the needs of MAINTAINING and SCALING Twitter, which are the actual problems requiring many devs.

          You say Twitter is not doing anything revolutionary and compare it’s capabilities to POB, but this is a poor comparison. POB is to Twitter as a local subway network is to a national transportation system.

          1. Niko , you are a first time commentator or one who posts sparingly . As an old-timer I can say that your information on the subject under discussion is outstanding . Same level as OFM on farming , Ron on oil and Mike B on the collapse of the bronze age . Keep plugging .

            1. Hole in Head,

              Thank you. I do comment sparingly, although I’ve been a daily reader for the better part of a decade. I suppose I’ll try to pop in more when matters in my area of expertise crop up. Cheers!

        2. Peak , a question ? Why isn’t someone doing the $ 40 million project ? There should have been many players during the time of QT . Easier said then done or even better ” it is easy when someone else has to do it . ” Yeah they could do this and they could do that. As it goes ” if grandpa had t**s he would be called grandma ” . 🙂

          2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truth_Social

            If you recall Donald Trump got into a spat with TWITTER. He started his own competitor within a year called Truth Social.


            “Truth Social…….technology company founded in October 2021 ”


            “The service was launched on February 21, 2022”


            That is 4 months he had it up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

            He spent millions, not billions. It doesn’t look like it is going to work. But paying 44 billion like Musk seems dubious.

            Twitter’s user base is intimidating and own’s the market. But it is not technical impediments that are preventing people from entering the market.

            I believe Facebook plays in this space to.

            Trump did it using existing technology. I do not support Trump, I think anything he touches fails…I am just pointing out if that idiot can do it in 4 months….


            Infrastructure

            The Truth Social service was originally hosted on RightForge, a company aimed at providing internet hosting for conservative causes that describes itself as “The first global Internet infrastructure company committed to American principles online”.[69][70]

            On December 14, 2021, TMTG said it had partnered with the Canadian online video platform Rumble, which was already providing cloud services to the Truth Social beta service.[36] On April 21, 2022, TMTG announced Truth Social would be moving to Rumble’s cloud platform[71] and announced they would be performing infrastructure upgrades to increase the platform’s performance.[72]

            TMTG engaged the services of Hive, a content moderation company that uses machine learning to filter postings for unacceptable content.[73]

            As of June 2022, Truth Social uses Cloudflare as its CDN for both mobile and web traffic.[74][75] Reuters reported Fastly had refused to take Truth Social on as a customer.[17]

            1. A failed website that never had to scale is not at all a good comparison to Twitter. Again, you are focusing on building but not scaling. Twitter’s value (admittedly FAR less than 44 billion, I’ve seen people bandy around the number 10 billion) is the effort that went into scaling and maintaining it.

              Without scaling and maintaining, you really haven’t built a competitor to Twitter at all.

            2. I worked on a project that served up ads for a Major Multi-billion dollar bank based on the information they had on their customers.

              Its called CUSTOMER ANALYTICS and you can buy it from software vendors.

              https://support.sas.com/en/software/customer-analytics-banking-support.html

              3rd party software was used, the coding was mostly transforming way more complicated data then TWITTER deals with.

              10 guys managed and transformed the data,

              Some over seas Indians managed the Web Servers and Tech Support.

              2 or 3 guys wrote advanced analytics rules for predicting what customers wanted.

              10 Marketing People wrote campaigns that targeted customers for credit cards, loans, plane flights, Frequent Flyer points etc

              ~100 total for the project mostly Project Managers, Business Analysts, Testers, Marketing……

              Go to your personal bank, you will see ads all over the place after they identify who you are.

              I understand SCALABILITY which is why I mentioned it 2 or 3 times. Cloud Computing dynamically (u can add more CPU, Disk, Performance effortlessly ) scales that’s why people BUY IT

              The cloud computing company does the WORK!!!

              Asynchronous HTTP packets have been dealt with since the dawn of the internet.

              10,000 developers to do what TWITTER does is ridiculous. That is why Musk came in and cleaned house.

              I don’t agree with how he did it and think Musk is blinded by his EGO.

              But having worked in software compannies myself, it is easy to HIDE HOW HARD YOU ARE WORKING because it is a CEREBRAL career.

              The Bosses, Executive Sponsors, Program Managers don’t understand what you are doing.

            3. I never said the website I work on does what Twitter does, I said it is similarly scaled.

              All my managers are software engineers, all of their managers are software engineers, and I assure you they know exactly what we are doing, how hard it is, and that we are needed. But thank you for the veiled critique of my work ethic.

              I understand you believe software is easier than it in reality is, but I disagree, and as you have devolved into rudeness I am no longer going to discuss with you. Farewell.

          3. More directly to why more companies don’t go after TWITTER

            1) Social media companies don’t have HARD assets. Musk paid 44 billion for INTANGIBLE assets ( Data and Users ).

            2) Do u want to advertise on the site with all the users (TWITTER) or the newbie with no users?

            3) Targeted advertising is a dubious industry. Quite simply, pretty much everyone HATES IT.

      3. Thank you Niko, and everybody else as well.

        I’ve learned more about running social media companies reading here in an hour than I’ve learned in years just seeing random stuff on the net and in magazines.

        It’s now obvious to me that while Musk might still manage to come out a winner by buying Twitter, he’s going to have to hire new people for three quarters or more of the positions he eliminated to keep Twitter functional long term on a global basis.

        Having said this much, it’s impossible to know how much power and influence he might eventually have on the American national and world political stage as the result of controlling Twitter.

        1. I’m sure that just about all the regulars here agree with me that having Niko as a member is a big plus for this forum, and hope as I do that he will be contributing often.

          1. I appreciate it OFM. I’ll try to pop in when it’s something I can usefully comment on. In general the knowledge level around here is so high that my input wouldn’t add much, though I follow all the energy, environment, sustainability, etc. conversations closely.

    4. Sounds like, from what I am reading, that Musk has greatly slowed if not stopped the cash burn at Twitter while greatly improving the software. Can’t tell for sure yet. Usage of the site is greatly up. Most of what is said here about Twitter is old, debunked, fake or irrelevant news. If you think what Musk has exposed was going on at Twitter was alright, I am shocked.

      If the advertisers left, I haven’t noticed it. I see the Wall Street Journal, Apple, and many others ads everytime I am out there. There are many posters talking about the vast improvement in child exploitation posts that were never solved under the old regime.

      Many, many posters were un-banned because the old ways of doing that were, lets just say, biased. Not to say there are not rules. There are and they are getting more and more transparent by the day. Not anywhere near perfect yet, but vastly better.

      Of course, many news outlets and other companies and individuals are attacking. But that is to be expected as they lose control of the narratives they are pushing. Musk has the great honor of trying to stay in the middle and therefore giving him enemies on both sides Adding those to the existing ones he already had by developing such disruptive technologies that gore a great many people’s oxen.

        1. You guess wrong. Try again. Let me guess. You think Biden is doing a great job, right?
          Do you think what the government and the social media sites were doing is alright?

          1. Let me guess. You talk like a Trumpite so you have to be one, and are lying when you say you are not. My guess is that you are an Ignorant Trumpite.

            1. You guess wrong also. Just what is it that makes you guys, in the echo chamber that this site has become, think such things?

            2. We are not an echo chamber. We have different opinions on just about everything. However, since most who post on this site are highly intelligent people, they, therefore, know Trump is a narcissist and an ignorant fool who thinks he is a stable genius.

              But if you are not a Trumpite, tell us your honest opinion of him.

            3. Ron, I didn’t vote for either candidate in the last Presidential election. They were both lost causes to me. Trump, and I know you will hate this, did have a couple of good ideas. But they were buried with his massive character flaws and instability. Of course, he shouldn’t be President again.

              Biden’s flaws are different in that I can’t even understand some of his motivations. Wide open borders, more massive money spending, and continued divisive actions aren’t really helping. Fortunately, at least the latest money spend has true climate repair goals in it. Finally.

              I sincerely hope in the next election I see neither Biden or Trump as candidates.

              What did you think about the so-called Twitter files? Do you think Musk is a villain for showing them? If so, we probably aren’t going to agree about much of what they showed.

            4. The borders aren’t wide open. People are being shipped back to their home countries in many cases. At any rate, it is a desperate situation. And it will get worse, much worse, in the next few decades no matter who is president.

              Musk made a lot of money and will lose most of it on his Twitter mistake. He is a bigger censor than Twitter was before he took over. He will drive the company into bankruptcy unless he changes courses. You said up the thread: If the advertisers left, I haven’t noticed it. Then you just have not been paying attention.

              Twitter has lost 50 of its top 100 advertisers since Elon Musk took over, report says

    1. The rapid exit from the zero covid policy without an exit zero covid strategy is a Black Swan for many.
      My guess is 1 to 2 million excess dead in next 120 days. I’ll say 1.5, just to put a point on it.
      Workers are the most highly vaxxed cohort as vax policy prioritized them. Young vaxxed workers will experience least long term implications of outbreak (call in sick if symptomatic) and keep China working. Elderly and infirm will be culled. Those who can are heading for the countryside to shelter and wait. I’d buy the dip.

  7. I’ve been watching ISO New England and the PJM systems and doing the math they have burned through over 10,000,000 gallons of oil today making electricity and at 6:52 pm they still have 16,000 MW on line powered by oil. The crime is that the PJM system is sitting on all of that coal and gas. New England is just a few hundred miles from all of the gas they need. New England was paying over $2000/ mWh for an hour. All of this insanity because of carbon dioxide. If your poor cold and hungry is all for your own good. Just listen to the elites.

    1. I know you have hard time understanding the utilities decision making. New England is burning oil in greater amounts than gas currently because of price advantage.
      If the US was not exporting nat gas, it would remain much cheaper.
      And no, they are not burning oil over gas for any CO2 consideration- oil emits more CO2/btu than nat gas.

      Secondly- “Pipeline Development Hasn’t Kept Pace with Demand
      New England is “at the end of the pipeline” when it comes to natural gas and the other fuels used most often to generate the region’s power. New England has no indigenous fossil fuels and therefore, fuels must be delivered by pipeline, ship, truck, or barge from distant places. Additionally, the natural gas pipeline system within New England is relatively small, and its access to the rest of the North American pipeline network is limited. This also makes the region vulnerable to pipeline interruptions. In regions with a more robust pipeline network, a failure at a single point on the pipeline system typically can be contained to a local area and routed around, but such an outage in New England will likely create significant impacts.
      The tremendous growth in natural-gas-fired generating capacity…but the natural gas pipelines that deliver low-cost shale gas into the region have not been expanded at a commensurate pace.”
      https://www.iso-ne.com/about/what-we-do/in-depth/natural-gas-infrastructure-constraints

      1. First to Phil, according to the two ISO websites 10,000 megawatts are being produced right now by oil. It takes 1.5 barrels of residual fuel oil to produce 1 megawatt hour. So let’s do the math. 10,000 X 1.5 = 15,000 barrels an hour. So in the last 8 hours 120,000 barrels. And yes, that $2000/kwh price does work it’s way into the cost for non contracted users.
        Hickory, I remember so well when Williams Co. through in the towel trying to build a 300 million cu ft/day pipeline from Pa to Mass. The head of the organization that kept Williams in court for years was so proud of himself saying the pipeline was an environmental disaster and really not necessary because New England could just get LNG if they needed extra natural gas. What I read is you making excuses for New England, what I’m poorly trying to get across, is if the elites didn’t hate the fossil fuel industry and promote the idea that the number one threat to life on earth is carbon dioxide, burning oil would not be necessary at all. It’s a bit of poetic justice that the fuel they hate so much is saving their asses from freezing.

        1. ” It takes 1.5 barrels of residual fuel oil to produce 1 megawatt hour”

          That doesn’t sound right.

    2. Hi Ervin,

      I’m unfamiliar with the New England electricity market. You say the price was over $2000/MWh for an hour – does everyone get charged this, or is this a spot price paid by users without contracts?

      Also you say 10,000,000 gallons of oil was burnt. That’s a big number. Perhaps you could convert it to the required numbers of barrels of crude oil since this is a oil aware site and probably the units we think in most often. And then you could provide the typical daily number of barrels of crude oil required to produce the refined products used in New England for transport etc to give some context to the actual relevance of that big looking number.

      Thanks, Phil

  9. A warm Merry Christmas to the entire PeakOilBarrel family! What did everyone get for presents?

    1. Dude’ll be starved out from the famine and watching the buzzards circle closer as he cries out “see I can feel it, it’s getting c-colder”

    2. Good example how someone who is literate can be consistently deluded by his false belief system
      Take note that D Archibald link is to his own commentary, and draws conclusion from data at NCDC-
      https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202211

      Take a look for yourself- Global Land and Ocean Temp Anomaly 1880-2022
      getting colder or warmer?

    3. wattsupwiththat.com

      Comedy, at best.
      But I would not take it seriously

    4. When I first saw a book on sun cycles I saw that it was mostly dismissed by scientists and forgot about it until I saw this:
      Heartbeat of the Sun
      https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689.pdf
      This was the stunning statement (absurd?outrageous?
      The accuracy of these formulae for prediction of the principal components is tested for cycle 24 showing the predicted curve fitting very closely (with an accuracy of about 97.5%)
      Well this paper hasn’t been retracted & if the math is wrong I think it would.
      Maybe the model is a mere 75% accurate and also the time period is very short (I’m sure it’s wrong for the long term but I just care about the next decades).
      Look at figure 3.
      Entering a grand solar minimum at the same time of peak oil? Oh god hath a sense of humor, but not the Old Testament God.

  11. “Our hunter-gatherer future: Climate change, agriculture and uncivilization”.

    This paper is as close as anything to how I see things unfolding (for whatever that’s worth). The latest findings on aerosol masking may mean that it all happens a bit quicker and the ultimate state of the earth is too warm for the next hunter-gatherer era to last more than a couple of thousands of years. There is a theory that one of the things that drove early agriculture was that early tribes gradually wiped out mega-fauna in all areas where they were new immigrants (i.e. an invasive species, which was everywhere except Africa, where humans had co-evolved with the large prey animals that formed the main part of their diet). In the coming collapse it is likely we eat everything going, so there may not be any cows, pigs, sheep etc. left in the first place. With generally degraded ecosystems, genetical bottlenecks in any tribes that do form, and smaller brain capacities the new manifestations of hunter-gatherers might find it tougher going than our ancestors.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328719303507

    1. I personally cannot see humans that are not currently, and i mean right now hunters and gathers becoming hunters and gatherers.

      Most of us have adapted too much to the city life and civilisation. Going back to hunting and gathering is not like downgrading to windows 95. It is much much harder. The huge majority of us are not prepared for that, both mentally and physically.

      Natural selection will have a field day with us, if that day comes.

      1. Ninety nine percent of us will be dead long before hunting and gathering renews as a way of life.
        My personal opinion is that some large wild and or domestic fauna will survive because people may die out faster than the last large animals in some fairly large areas, and because there will likely be some people who manage to hang onto some domestic animals for their own use.

        There are deer and boar in a number of places in Europe where they should have been wiped out by hunting………. because powerful men and women ( kings, queens, etc) protected these animals for their own use and pleasure.

        And a great many species of small animals, freed from competition and predation, will experience explosive population growth, and some of these species will spread very quickly into new territories that are now too cool or too dry for them.

        So after a few generations, how many I cannot guess, any surviving humans are likely to be able to feed themselves by hunting and gathering……… in places that are still suitable for human habitation.

        It’s rather likely that nobody will ever be able to catch and eat the last big snake in a place such as the Everglades.

      2. If everyone on earth became hunter-gatherers tomorrow, every piece of wild game and every editable root or plant would be gone in less than two weeks. We would then all starve to death.

        Hunter-gatherers lived in a time when the number of humans on earth numbered in the thousands, a few hundred thousand at most. Now we number 8 billion.

        1. Dead on Ron,
          But barring a major asteroid collision, there’s nothing that’s going to wipe out civilization all over the world in one go.
          There will almost dead sure be a few people left here and there no matter what happens, and the survivors will be able to live quite some time by salvaging whatever isn’t destroyed.
          Some of these scattered survivors have a good shot at transitioning to the hunter gatherer life style over time.

          1. No, I really don’t think so. Gatherers perhaps, but not hunters. There is damn few wild animals left on earth right now. And if people started to get hungry, those would be killed off in short order.

            I agree; it would not be a worldwide collapse right off the bat but slowly spread around the world. It would take the underdeveloped countries first and take perhaps several decades before the western world collapsed. However, the survivors, and there would be survivors, would revert to an agrarian society. People would turn to subsistence farming.

            But the US could only support a fraction of the current population with subsistence farming. I lived in the desert of New Mexico for three years. A square mile of that desert would support one goat farmer and his family, and that’s about all.

            1. Back atcha Ron,

              You’re dead on about the small surviving population going back more to a subsistence farming lifestyle than hunter/ gatherer.

              Must have been half asleep, lol.

              The usual pattern is that such people evolve from hunter gatherers to subsistence farmers, over a fairly long period of time.

              In this case the farming technology will be known already, and so subsistence farming can arise in countless spots, anywhere with decent soil and weather where there are a few people.

              Subsistence farmers early on will have PLENTY of land, and most likely they will have excellent opportunities to do some hunting and gathering, which can be extremely productive at times. Small animals are just as good to eat as big ones, and if they’re plentiful they’re easy to capture and kill.

              Farmers eventually squeeze out hunter gatherers.

              But if there’s land enough, hunting and gathering is a healthier lifestyle…… assuming you don’t starve.

              But farmers starve too, maybe even oftener than hunter gatherers.

              Speaking of gathering, I got well over a hundred pounds of nice fat black walnuts in the shell from under just two trees in a couple of hours last fall.

          2. I wager most of the folks living in Kaokoland Namibia would hardly notice a world wide collapse of civilization. Perhaps they will adapt to climate change rather well also.

            1. I lived four years in Angola, just north of Namibia. During the Angola civil war, roughly 1977 to 2002, the human population of ten million completely consumed the entire wild, large animal populations. The repopulation efforts of the past fifteen years are through imported animals.

            3. Kaokoland has a population of about 16000 and a population density of about 1 person to every square mile.

              The world could go to hell and they’d likely hardly notice.

            4. …. it’s also perhaps worth noting that the African elephants were largely impacted by Victorian England’s need for ivory billiards balls and cane handles, not sustenance hunters. Billiards played an important role in driving the development of synthetic plastic.

              French Colonialism’s Systematic Extinction of North Africa’s Indigenous Wildlife
              https://insidearabia.com/french-colonialisms-systematic-extinction-of-north-africas-indigenous-wildlife/

              Warfare-induced mammal population declines in Southwestern Africa are mediated by species life history, habitat type and hunter preferences
              https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7498602/

            5. They will notice when starving migrants with plenty of weapons start showing up.
              Places like the USA might possibly be mostly free of that sort of violence, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

              Contemplating the possibility of outright collapse leaves me feeling very lucky that I’m located a long way from cities such as Detroit and LA. If and when, people will be pouring out of such cities by the millions, and all of them will making a life or death decision…… rob and murder to eat, or starve.

              Not to paint too gruesome a picture of it, but if it happens, and I’m still around, I’m hoping and expecting that most of the refugees will kill each other or be killed by local people before more than a relative handful of them make it to my neck of the woods.

              The odds are pretty good I’ll be dead well before, but not zero by any means.

              I’ve actually planned for this scenario to the extent of talking to some old friends about forting up at my place, assuming the shit hits the fan slow enough that they can get here, hopefully with a car load or truck load of essentials ranging from salt for curing meat to first aid kits to ammo and non perishable food.

              This might come as a surprise to most people, but the average farmer in the USA would starve about as fast as the average city dweller, because most of us produce something we can’t eat, and hardly any of us are doing anything in the line of gardening, canning or drying food, etc.

              I pretty much quit serious gardening years ago, and you can’t live very long on apples and peaches. IF you were to have salt on hand, you could salt down a cow or hog…….. if there are any in the neighborhood.

              I would have a very tough time myself for the first year, getting back to putting food on the table by producing it on my own place…….. and I have all the necessary equipment, except a plow horse.

              If the shit hits the fan, I guess I’ll try to buy or steal a saddle horse and train it to pull a plow. But I do have a big enough stock of diesel fuel to last for ten years of subsistence farming. It doesn’t take much, for five or six people, and if my old tractor quits…….. there will be plenty of tractors around with empty fuel tanks, free for the taking, or in exchange for food or ammo or whatever.

              Here’s a long shot tip. If there are riots going an at your local supermarket, get thee hence as fast as ever you can to the nearest local farm supply store, and maybe you will get there in time to load up with bags of livestock feed.

              Such feeds are not intended for human consumption, but they’re not poisonous, and they’re absolutely top of the line in terms of price, high protein, fat, mineral and calorie content, and they’re pretty much non perishable if kept dry, good for at least a couple of years and up to ten years if you have nothing else.

              You can bet your last can of beans that if I think the shit is in the fan, I’ll be first in line, as soon as I get an inkling. There’s not much downside. I can always use or swap a couple of truck loads of feed anyway.

              Even if it’s just a false alarm, the price of feed will probably shoot way on up there in a few days anyway, and I could actually make some money, lol.

              If I were to wind up eating it myself, my doctor would be impressed with my reduced waistline and better looking blood chemistry, lol.

    2. Yes, very good article George.
      I agree with this, roughly.
      “By 2050, under a typical middle-of-the-road emissions scenario, you’re looking at a doubling of the volatility for grains in the mid-latitudes.”

      There are some very profound statements buried within the article, such as
      “There will be some wildlife slaughter in the period of the contraction—there is a massive number of guns on the planet–but the limiting factor will be ammunition which will run out quickly. Most of it will be used on other humans if history is any guide.”

      1. Depression rather than growth will take over both geographically and temporally from the mid 20s and we will burn everything we can find with the excuse that “once we sort the economy out then we’ll tackle climate change”, which will mean turning to more coal. We won’t be following a medium emissions pathway and will be destroying sinks at an accelerating rate. Add in aquifer water, fertiliser and diesel shortages, rising social unrest, more wars (proxy or not), disadvantaged demographics and the fact that everything in climate change is worse than expected and you can probably advance 2050 by 15 or more years.

        1. Once again, your projecting what you want to happen based on some doomporn you Googled the other day. The reality is, while we both agree that we should have started sooner, there is a way out of our predicament that doesn’t mean everything and everybody faces certain annihilation. We need to stop using fossil fuels (e.g. coal) for electricity, while transitioning to renewables such as wind and solar as quickly as we can. Once we’ve scaled that out, we can continue the process of converting transportation over to electric vehicles, at which time we will have, at minimum, solved the ground transportation problem. Air travel will remain a complicated process to make sustainable for centuries to come, but fortunately, unlike ground transportation, air transportation is not low-hanging fruit as it only contributes a few percentage points toward CO2.

          Of course, we need political will to have an impact, and well-off countries like the US have to take the lead in order to prevent countries like China and India from making excuses to keep the status quo. Political will also means regulating wealthy and big polluters that only care about their immediate profits.

          Humans don’t need to have zero impacts on planet earth. There is a level of human prosperity that our planet can tolerate and adapt to. Although past that level at the moment, the reason is simply because our current efforts to use clean renewable energy and manufacture recyclable materials are too limited. Otherwise, a sustainable industrial civilization is quite possible by relying on advanced high tech solutions.

          1. that doesn’t mean everything and everybody faces certain annihilation.

            You people, coming here and flinging your Straw Men around…

          2. Most flights can be replaced by ground transport. China has taken huge steps to do this, and it is spreading Europe as well, with Spain, Italy and France leading the way. America’s transportation system is broken, but not irreparably so.

            As for agriculture, it mostly about meat, and few would starve from meat shortages. Mongolians eat a lot of meat, as do Eskimos. For the rest of the world it is a luxury item. And meat replacements with a much smaller ecological footprint are becoming as commonplace as margarine. In short, there is no reason to think that cutting worldwide meat consumption by 80% would cause anyone to starve.

            1. L.O.L My neighbour is a big beef rancher. Every piece of land that becomes available he snaps up. When I asked him why he said it was a matter of trying to supply his ever expanding market.

              “The global beef market size was valued at USD 467.7 billion in 2021 and is expected to progress at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8% from 2022 to 2030. With increasing globalization, the food preferences of consumers around the world have witnessed some significant changes. Consumers are increasing their protein intake, resulting in the rising demand for meat. Meat and its products are packed with a host of essential ingredients and nutrients and save a lot of time and effort in cooking. Therefore, manufacturers are primarily focusing on the quality of the meat and its products.”

              https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/beef-market-analysis#:~:text=Report%20Overview,4.8%25%20from%202022%20to%202030.

      2. I’m pretty much a liberal in terms of just about everything the Democrats stand for these days, except for the ones on the fringe who would like to simply disarm the country wholesale.

        I’ve read enough history to know that sometimes the people simply have to revolt, and having a ready supply of firearms is critical in such a scenario.

        My second wife lost just about all of the European branch of her family in the Holocaust. If every other Jew in that part of the world had owned a shotgun or pistol, the Nazis would have had a hell of a lot more trouble putting them into cattle cars.

        Now as far as running out of ammo goes……

        That’s not going to be a problem for at least a generation in the American boonies.

        The best thing that has EVER happened to the gun industry, in general terms, is the effort on the part of Democrats to control them, in conjunction with efforts on the part of the Republicans to demonize the Democrats on this issue. The gun factories and ammo factories have been running on a de facto wartime production schedule for decades now…… and most of that ammo is stored away some place in closets or gun safes or maybe even warehouses.

        And if you protect a gun from rust…… well, it will typically work just as well when it’s a hundred years old as it did the day it was new. Guns just don’t wear out as a general rule, excepting a few used for training by police and military.

        I’m totally confident I know more people with ten thousand rounds of ammo than I know with ten thousand dollars ready cash, and I’m not even INTO the gun culture in the usual sense.

    3. I took note of this line:

      The climatologist Michael Mann observed: “The Syrian uprising was driven by another drought that was the worst drought on record—the paleo record suggests the worst in 900 years. Drought is a big one, it’s behind a lot of the conflict we see” …. As climate change accelerates, migrations will be driven not only by drought, but also by sea level rise …Mass migration and the
      resulting conflicts over water and food will most likely destabilize future societies.

      1. I keep bringing up the Late Bronze Age Collapse because it foreshadows the present, and that quote is a close a description of the mechanism of such a collapse. Kaniewski, et al. have shown pretty definitively that a cool, dry period beginning about 3200 years BP caused famine and resulted in mass migrations from Southern Europe and the Western Mediterranean to the Levant and elsewhere. These poor folks came to be known as “The Sea Peoples.” See “Trojan War,” “Collapse of Hittite Empire,” “The Greek Dark Age,” “Goodbye, Ugarit,” and other phenomena.

      2. Anecdotal: I’ve noticed here in Maine that springs have been HORRIBLY dry for about 6 years now. My crop of apples has suffered. repeatedly. We can’t grow strawberries here anymore because the roots dry out. Nobody talks about it, though. They just water their grass. When I brought this up with a scientists at U Maine Extension, his comment was that local climate data “has a lot of noise in it,” so there’s no way to know if it’s a “trend.”

      Once the confirm the trend, I should be safely dead.

      1. The difference between the late Bronze Age and the current situation is that as follows:

        1. They were two or three crop failures away from collapse at any given time. We are much better insulated against starvation because we have more storage, and because we could get by eating a lot less.

        2. The cultures you are talking about had a narrow geographical spread, which meant their harvests were strongly correlated, and they had limited ability to spread risk across different ecological zones.

        1. Alim-
          I see it differently.
          The global food storage/person is not great. We also are two to three crop failures away from widespread starvation.
          Regarding spreading risk- true in times of the free trade and relative peace that most countries have experienced recently (sorry to the couple dozen that have been through hell in the last 50 years). But in times of trouble you will find that spreading risk to other regions may not be something you can rely on. Things get very local in times of crises.

          1. We’re a few crop failures away from higher meat prices. If grain and soybeans run short, you’ll see it in the meat prices, but that isn’t happening.

            Nearly 60% of the world’s agricultural land is used for beef production, yet beef accounts for less than 2% of the calories that are consumed throughout the world.

            Most beef consumption is ground beef, which is easily replaced by grain or bean based substitutes. Beef has already started to disappear from processed food anyway. A lot of pork consumption is sausage or the fillings of Chinese noodles, and the industry is hard at work developing replacements.

            Even now, nobody has to have more than a single 100 gram serving of meat a week. In fact you can get along just fine on potatoes cabbage and beans. Meat eating is basically a status symbol. I eat meat myself, but I don’t pretend the sky is going to fall if I eat less.

            Also note that high meat prices are a first world problem, because poor countries consume a lot less of it.

            1. The name of the game is energy density. How many wagons of coal do we need to replace a barrel of oil ? How much potatoes and cabbage do we need to replace a 250 gm steak of beef ? I understand industrial meat farming is a negative full cycle EROEI concept , but we are living in an industrial civilization . When IC ends we all we go back to being hunter gatherers and reading the post of Mr Gittes , I dread that .

            2. Please tell me how the once in a generation storm (that killed 26 people in Buffalo due to cold) was caused by global warming. And how such cold storms become more frequent and more intense as the carbon dioxide level continues to rise.

            3. It still get cold sometimes.

              There are more complicated answers, but you are not interested- having made up your mind over 30 years ago.

  13. Hi Ervin,

    About that oil being burned right now in New England……..
    Nobody who is truly serious about making the transition to renewable energy believes we can give up using oil, natural gas or coal in the short to medium term.

    But as is always the case, some people on both sides of such issues WILL make reckless statements, wildly exaggerated statements, in order to win political points and support, knowing that the public at large is paying little or no real attention, and that they can fool most of the people most of the time with sound bite type pronouncements.

    Sure there are lots of people out there who are environmentalists, or at least pretending to be environmentalists, who oppose new gas pipelines, new solar farms, new wind farms, etc. They may be and often are serious in their beliefs, but as often as not they have an agenda of their own…… as you seem to have an agenda of opposing any plans or policies involving solving air pollution problems and dealing with the DEPLETION problem.

    Oil, coal and gas come out of holes in the ground.Right now people all over Europe are in danger of freezing because Russia is the go to supplier of gas and oil for Europeans. I doubt very seriously you have ever posted a comment anywhere on this problem.

    The lights in New England are on because the electrical utility industry has maintained enough spare generation capacity, including oil burning capacity, to keep them on……. in case of a shortage of natural gas.
    The same applies to any shortages of wind and solar power as well.

    We’re getting over ten percent of all of our electricity in the USA from wind power these days.
    How much MORE do you think natural gas might cost WITHOUT that ten percent coming from fuel free wind power?
    How much will that fuel free wind power SAVE US on gas, oil, and coal over the next twenty or thirty years?

    1. OFM
      I totally agree that with every turn of a wind turbine a pound of coal or a mcf of gas is not being burned. I also believe that these resources are finite. Since I believe to my core that carbon dioxide is not the control nob of the earth’s climate, I object to the premise on which wind and solar are being sold to the public. You mentioned air pollution, when ever emissions are mentioned today it only means carbon dioxide. The air we breathe has a carbon dioxide content of 0.04 % or 4/100s which allows life to exist. We are told that that wind and solar are the cheapest source of power except where it dominates the cost of electricity is the highest. Where a power system is built that gives intermittent wind and solar priority the system delivers expensive and at times unreliable electricity. I spent three years in the Reactor Division on the USS Enterprise and then went on to get my EE from Penn State. Lastly, I like to say that regardless where it’s done and regardless how it’s done, the energy content of the hydrogen will always be much less than the energy required to produce the hydrogen. So what’s the point?

  14. https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-hydrogen

    It could be that it will turn out to be cheaper and easier to build long distance hydrogen pipelines from sunny places like the Mid East and some parts of the American South West than it is to build long distance electricity transmission lines.

    In any case ammonia is one of the very most important industrial feed stock chemicals, and it will probably be possible to build ammonia plants and ship ammonia to places where it’s needed most, for instance to manufacture nitrate fertilizers.

    Or maybe nitrates can be more economically produced locally along with green hydrogen and ammonia.

    Any comments welcome and thanks in advance.

    1. This is a big subject, but here are a few thoughts.
      Electrical transmission from a centralized source such nuclear, gas or coal plant, or a utility scale wind or solar facility sending electricity to where it is used directly by an efficient mechanism such as a motor, heat pump or LED is always going to be less expensive than any system needing energy conversion, storage, refining, combustion.

      Hydrogen as an energy storage mechanism requires electrolysis of water on the front end for production- about 70-80% energy efficiency on a large scale. And the it can undergo either combustion [only about 25% efficiency in an ICE] or it can be used as feedstock for a fuel cell to regenerate some of the electricity from which it was created [hydrogen fuel cells are generally between 40% to 60% energy efficient].

      So hydrogen going from an electrical source to hydrogen via hydrolysis, and then back to electricity via fuel cell entails two big step-downs in energy content. And then it still has the same end use efficiency loss as other sources of electricity would have such as in an electric motor.

      For some applications the energy inefficiency of the process may be worth it, similar to the poor efficiency we get with crude oil- with the energy loss during both refining (about 15%) and at end use combustion (rough 50% for diesel and 70% for gasoline, or less).

      For example it may make sense to transfer energy as hydrogen from remote wind or solar installations that are in prime generating locations but are not connected to a big enough grid to handle the outflow.
      Or it may make sense to use hydrogen for the sake of mobility in fueling aircraft, ships, cargo trucks or trains- we shall see.

      For stationary energy storage I doubt the inefficiency/cost will allow hydrogen to compete with other forms of energy storage.

      I have no idea about the round trip energetics of ammonia.
      Thats my 2 cents- expertise strictly low laymen level.

      1. Thanks Hickory,
        Good points. All of them.

        Picking up on round trip efficiency for H2, sometimes efficiency from a physics or engineering pov is more or less irrelevant.

        Consider solar panels……. Efficiency in terms of electricity generated is typically around twenty percent, with the laboratory cutting edge around thirty percent.

        But that wasted eighty percent of sunlight is no problem, in terms of supply, so long as we have lots of space. Twenty percent is good enough to may solar panels a no brainer investment.

        Assuming Mr Old Man Business As Usual continues to stagger along, we’re going to at least double and probably eventually ( thirty years? )triple build out the wind and solar industries, so as to have ENOUGH juice no matter how bad bad the weather gets.

        Using dirt cheap solar power to manufacture hydrogen might make good sense, from a dollars and cents pov.

        Consider heavy duty trucks, which you mentioned.

        Electric models have to haul around at least two to five tons or more of batteries in order to have good working range, say three hundred miles or more.

        Some people with supposedly sharp pencils say that a fuel cell truck will be more than competitive compared to battery electric trucks……. because the fuel cell truck will be able to haul at least a couple more tons of paid freight, maybe even three or four tons.

        Of course these people might be wrong about the future cost o fuel cells , and they may be wrong about the price of hydrogen delivered to truck stops.

        Gas turbines can be up to fifty percent or so efficient, in power plants, and it’s now well established that such turbines can run on hydrogen mixed with natural gas, and that they can be built to run on straight hydrogen or any mix of the two.

        So hydrogen could be manufactured (during peak wind and solar power production hours) at an electrolysis plant located adjacent to a generating plant. The grid is already there, lol, eliminating the need to ship H2.

        Otherwise dirt cheap surplus wind and solar power can be used at any time it’s available to produce hydrogen, which can be stored right on the premises and burnt on a nightly basis , acting as a sort of de facto battery.

        It might even be possible to store H2 in very large amounts, the way we store up natural gas over the summer for winter use. If so, this would go a very long way towards offsetting natural gas depletion, and help keep the price down.

        This might be a viable path towards using a lot less fossil fuel, making it worth the cost even if it’s a little on the expensive side, because it helps clean up the environment and helps with forced warming. Some things are worth subsidizing. This is one of them, in my opinion…….. if it comes to pass.

        Some countries might even be able to give up imported natural gas by making enough hydrogen using their own renewable electricity.

        1. True all.
          The hydrogen experiment is now underway, and I suspect their will be plenty of viable applications.
          There will be no shortage of motivation.

          I’ll add to your comments that some places may have enough nuclear to store some of it as hydrogen for use in mobile application with large vehicles.

          Iceland may become a hydrogen exporting hub. They have immense wind (on and offshore) and geothermal resource.

    2. Ammonia, where I worked we had a ammonia chilling system powered by a 100 HP motor. In the 13 years I was there, twice, a fleet of fire trucks and ambulances arrived unannounced at the plant because our monitoring system detected an ammonia leak. The point is if a small leak in the system generated this type of response it’s only because how dangerous ammonia can be. People have no idea.

    3. Ervin-
      “I like to say that regardless where it’s done and regardless how it’s done, the energy content of the hydrogen will always be much less than the energy required to produce the hydrogen.”

      Of course- that is the case with all energy storage mechanisms, including fossilized solar energy.
      Oil, for example, only contains a tiny fraction of the energy used to create it over 100 million years.
      And only a small fraction of the energy content of produced oil makes it to the level of actual machine power output.
      ____________________________________________________

      “I believe to my core that carbon dioxide is not the control nob of the earth’s climate”

      To ‘believe’ otherwise would be very inconvenient…an inconvenient truth.
      But to say that CO2 is ‘the control knob’ is a simplification of climate.
      CO2 is one of the many variables on climate- A very important one that mankind is altering in a major way. Playing with fire…literally. Hundreds of millions of combustion events each minute.
      Whether you want to ‘believe’ it or not is irrelevant to reality.

      1. Hickory

        The energy required by nature to create oil is irrelevant. What IS relevant is the energy Exxon uses to recover and refine the billions of barrels from Guyana. Rest assured when your driving down the road with a tank full of Exxon gasoline to grandma’s house, the system has delivered a net plus in energy. In all cases , for society to flourish there has to be a net positive energy gain.

        1. “for society to flourish there has to be a net positive energy gain”

          Well, on that we can certainly agree.
          And the energy we have used in the past 150 years to grow up to 8 billion (and soon 9) people
          is from an energy savings account that had been accumulated over something like 100 million years.

          We’ve spent it quick, in a literal flash.
          And going forward, the decline of net energy followed shortly by population is a situation already baked in the cake.

          The outcomes do have some variability depending on how the situation is managed.
          Most of humanity is completely uninformed, misinformed or in denial, about the situation.

          To ‘flourish’- to grow or develop in a healthy or vigorous way, especially as the result of a particularly favorable environment.
          Well, favorable environment includes not just abundant fossil fuel, but also healthy soil and forests and water and habitat for the whole life web and foodchain. You might want to consider that the CO2 issue is a much bigger threat to ‘flourishing’ than you have realized. Global harvests of staple food crops is not something to be taken for granted. Nor are stable borders between countries.

          If there is going be any flourishing to happen going forward it will only be in small localized pockets, not in a generalized manner as we all have witnessed up to the big peak.

    1. Tesla will be fine, low stock price or otherwise. More than likely they will add 4 billion or so to their 20 billion cash and no debt after the 4th quarter. See any other auto/tech stocks doing that? If so, let me know as I might buy some. Notice any other stocks that are massively down?

      So you don’t agree with everything said on Twitter. Free speech is messy like that. Ever hear the phrase, “I don’t necessarily agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it”?

      1. What I agree and disagree with has little to do with Tesla’s recent stock performance, or Musk being increasingly perceived as an incompetent corporate leader. It’s bizarre to me that you think it would. I do like free speech though cuz it helps me figure out who the white nationalists are, which is nice.

        Here’s How Tesla Stock’s 69% Crash In 2022 Compares To Other Slumping Stocks
        https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/12/23/heres-how-tesla-stocks-69-crash-in-2022-compares-to-other-slumping-stocks/amp/

        Tesla Stock Crash Worsens: Losses Top $895 Billion As Rival Carmaker Warns Of ‘Challenging’ Weeks Ahead
        “Tesla stock’s collapse has made it the fifth-worst performing stock in the S&P 500 this year; the index is down 20%. Most of the decline has happened since late September, when Twitter shareholders approved Musk’s $44 billion bid to buy the ailing social media network”
        https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/12/27/tesla-stock-crash-worsens-losses-top-895-billion-as-rival-carmaker-warns-of-challenging-weeks-ahead/amp/

        Musk’s Free Speech is gonna be fine. But the consequence’s of his utterances seem to be negative business outcomes.

        …. ok, maybe not negative business outcomes for everybody lolz

        Short-sellers make $15 billion betting against Tesla as shares in Elon Musk’s company sink by 70% this year
        https://www.businessinsider.com/short-sellers-made-15-billion-betting-against-tesla-shares-2022-12?amp

        “So you don’t agree with everything said on Twitter. Free speech is messy like that. Ever hear the phrase, “I don’t necessarily agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it”?” ~ Songster

        My personal hero, a guy I knew, had once killed a guy who was with the Fallschirmjäger, on December 25 1943. He killed a bunch more on other days too. Hard man for hard times.

        1. Just to create a sense of perspective, 3 years ago TSLA was at $29, today it is $109. All that has happened is that some of the post Covid excess has been wrung out. It could fall to $60 and still be ok. Tesla now is massively profitable and able to scale production. They made the same amount of profit as Toyota, although they sell very few cars compared to Toyota.
          I will always be grateful to Elon Musk. Without him we would not have mass produced EVs or reusable rockets or low latency satellite based internet.
          I don’t care about social media. Let Twitter, Facebook and Instagram die. It is nothing but a fertile ground for narcissists.

          1. I have to agree that Musk is THE one man who is responsible for shortening up the transition to electrified transportation by ten years or maybe even more, and about satellite internet as well.

            But it’s also obvious that anything along the lines of Twitter can be used as an extremely powerful weapon, depending on who controls it.

            Rupert Murdock and his FOX outfit are pretty much responsible for one hell of a lot of the problems we’re having and have had here in the USA for the last decade or two.

            Ignoring any sort of mass media or communication system is a dangerous thing to do.

            1. I guess CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, the New York Times, Washington Post, LA times are as free of sin as before the snake arrived to Adam and Eve.

        2. Survivalist,

          You are quite a trip. White nationalists? Do you worry about that a lot? Do violent people of any other races bother you? I notice you told one of the people out here “you would see them on the streets”? Do I have that right? Is that a threat? Then we have the last paragraph of this post. Disturbing, to say the least.

          Amazon’s stock values fell harder than this in the past. And then rebounded 16000 percent or so. The stock price is largely irrelevant. Especially in this market. Performance matters and that is, 20 billion cash, no debt, industry leading margins, a commanding lead in the industry and 40-50 percent YOY growth.

          1. That old hero of mine was killing Nazis paratroopers for your freedom too Songster. Unless perhaps you think he wasn’t. Sorry to hear you don’t appreciate his service as much as most Americans do.

            Twitter Allows Russian Officials to Share Antisemitic Cartoon of Zelenskyy
            https://theintercept.com/2022/11/22/twitter-allows-russian-officials-share-antisemitic-cartoon-zelenskyy/

            Elon Musk just brought an infamous neo-Nazi back to Twitter
            https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/02/elon-musk-nazis-kanye-twitter-andrew-anglin/

            ‘A Neo-Nazi Terrorized My Family. Now Elon Musk Has Him Back on Twitter
            https://www.newsweek.com/elon-musk-twitter-andrew-anglin-anti-semitic-hate-speech-1766850?amp=1

            Elon Musk Is a Far-Right Activist
            “One tweet says it all.”
            https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/12/elon-musk-twitter-far-right-activist/672436/

            I take it as axiomatic that whenever a right wing shirt movement takes to the street in America they get their ass beat. That’s why American white nationalism is mostly a keyboard warrior thing. They’re not fighters; they’re typers. Nobody will ever see them in the streets. They’re cowards. Hitler was a brawler, he’d beat your ass in a street fight with a bullwhip; Nicholas Fuentes doesn’t look like he’s up for it.

            So much for “free speech”

            “Free speech absolutist” Elon Musk bans journalists, brings back far-right activists
            https://www.salon.com/2022/12/24/free-speech-absolutist-elon-musk-bans-journalists-brings-back-far-right-activists/

            Tesla Stock Plunges to Two-Year Low After Musk Bans Journalists From Twitter
            https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/tesla-stock-plunges-elon-musk-bans-journalists-twitter-1234648853/

            You seem to be implying that Tesla is gonna do great cuz they’re pegged to Amazon’s historical pathway? Bezo’s seems quite a bit more competent than Musk. Maybe that’s a factor?

            Musk sells cars. He sells fancy, high-tech cars to liberals. Theoretically, as Musk exposes himself as a white nationalist, he will become unpalatable to this liberal consumer base. We all know someone with a Tesla. This person is not talking about The Great Replacement.

            Tesla is down 50% since Musk acquired Twitter on October 27, 2022; 8 weeks ago. Amazon is down 50% YTD. You’re in denial dude. Musk has shot his bolt. I guess being an overt white nationalist is not great for one’s brand. Maybe shoulda focus group’ed it first.

            Ads for Major Corporations Pop Up on White Nationalist Twitter Accounts
            https://www.lamag.com/culturefiles/ads-for-major-corporations-pop-up-on-white-nationalist-twitter-accounts/

            When Elon loses most of his Tesla shares to a margin call on his loans, he will be solely responsible for that outcome due to repeatedly making idiotic decisions and saying stupid shit that caused people to lose faith in his ability to think logically. Tesla has to remain in certain % of value parameters for loans used on the Twitter purchase. He’s toast if Tesla price falls further. It closed today at $109.10; after hours it’s down to $106.69; lol 69, I bet Musk loves that.

            Elon Musk reveals ‘$69.420’ Tesla short shorts
            https://www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/elon-musk-reveals-69-420-tesla-short-shorts/

            Luckily for America it’s white nationalists are mostly incel dweebs.

            How White Christian Nationalists Seek to Transform America
            https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/politics-and-more/how-white-christian-nationalists-seek-to-transform-america

            1. Survivalist,

              I have a special dis-taste for people who are climate deniers, racists, liars, the extreme right, the extreme left, and who promote violence. You check a few of those boxes.

              Your replies to criticism usually involve a distortion of what the original poster said and a few irrelevant or partisan links. This time is no different.

            2. Musk is a MAGA racist.
              You’re gate keeping for a White Nationalist.
              You’re a fanatic.

  16. Free Speech.
    I’ve got very mixed feelings.
    Its a great concept, but human beings have used speech for such cruel and ignorant purpose- all the way up to mass genocide.
    If people were the kind of animal that had good intention naturally, were honorable and eager for truth,
    and not so very gullible to manipulation
    it would be whole different story.

    Rather, the public discourse from religion to politics to social issues is one huge dangerous minefield.

    The biggest global institutions from the church for 1800 yrs, the worlds governments, the big corporations have all participated in gross intentional false narrative (lies), and that has normalized the behavior of brainwashing and manipulation, and violence.

    True, free speech can be a counterbalance to those big powers, but so often it just perpetuates hate and ignorance.

    I sure as heck do know that I wouldn’t trust Musk with handling social issue policy or governance even for a minute. But in this world he is able to simply buy his way into the decision making role.
    Broken.

    1. “I sure as heck do know that I wouldn’t trust Musk with handling social issue policy or governance even for a minute. But in this world he is able to simply buy his way into the decision making role.”

      To put it bluntly, anybody who doesn’t agree with Hickory on this point has his head up his ass so far he will probably never see daylight.

      I mentioned Murdoch and Fox someplace up thread. Without Fox, or an equivalent, we wouldn’t have had trump, or be looking at our Supreme Court in the hands of obviously low life right wingers.

      Musk has either lost his marbles, or maybe he has something in mind that scares the crap out of me. For now, I’m guessing its some of both.

      I believe in free speech as much as anybody.

      But free speech doesn’t extend to screaming fire in a crowded theater.

      Nor should any business entity be allowed to provide a platform for people to do that sort of screaming.

      Some regulation is necessary.

    2. Hickory,
      Twitter, pre-Musk was making social issue policy decisions through people such as Vijaya Gadde. Did you trust her? How did she get her role? Did you agree with her making those decisions behind closed doors in meetings with the FBI, CIA et al?

      At least with Musk, much of the banning decisions are made and discussed publicly. After Musk was doxxed, at least in his mind, he temporarily banned some of the journalists he blamed. The issue was discussed, a vote was taken and they were put back on the site. Would anything like that have happened pre-Musk?

      Musk is definitely feeling his way through this free speech issue. But I trust him to be more open than what I was seeing previously.

        1. It’s hilarious how Musk has attempted to redefine the term “dox” to suit his narrative. Doxxing is the act of publishing private information about someone online, normally to remove anonymity as a fear tactic.

          Publishing publicly available flight data is not “doxxing”.

      2. Songster- I don’t really trust anyone on the big social policy issues. And someone like Musk has proven by his knee jerk actions and ‘self first’ attitude that he is particularly a very bad candidate to be involved in these issues.
        Probably the best (least bad) way to make these policies is by a mixed panel of smart or wise people. No one person is equipped to consider the wide issues. We all need feedback, especially those with character like Musk or Trump who have bizarre delusions of self grandeur. In many in fields they are simply as spoiled and ill-trained children.

      3. Twitter wasn’t making social issue policy decisions. They were making twitter business issue policy decisions, through the administration of their Terms of Service.

        Songsters just upset because pre-Musk Twitter didn’t participate in a revenge porn plot targeting Hunter Biden.

        What Elon Musk Doesn’t Know About Free Speech
        “the political corner of Twitter will likely just become what Musk says he hates about the mainstream media: yet another insular space that drones on, endlessly, about itself.”
        https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/what-elon-musk-doesnt-know-about-free-speech/amp

        How’s ad revenue doing?

    2. Now he published a rebuttal. In the video he showed some pizza boxes he didn’t intend to recycle. They were Romanian, which tipped the police off that he was in the country. They arrested him and his brother for human trafficking.

      On a side note, when you add the -ing ending to the verb “to traffic”, you get trafficking. The same works for “to frac” — fracking.

  19. Dear Ron,
    FYI the border is wide open! Please come down and visit.
    Residents of the border areas are absolutely overrun with this invasion. Property is destroyed and many people have abandoned their places as the influx is too much. People can’t visit their properties without interference and and so much is vandalized!
    The policy of ignoring reality has induced the drug cartels to organize mass illegal immigration operations. These groups operate like tour operators with colored wrist bands identifying their “passengers” vs others and who know what they are charging these poor souls. I have been there and helped these people.

  20. Poor Old Planet Earth and the critters that call it home.

    THE WORLD’S COAL CONSUMPTION IS SET TO REACH A NEW HIGH IN 2022 AS THE ENERGY CRISIS SHAKES MARKETS

    “Developments in China, the world’s largest coal consumer, will have the biggest impact on global coal demand in the coming years, but India will also be significant. This means coal will continue to be the global energy system’s largest single source of carbon dioxide emissions by far.”

    https://www.iea.org/news/the-world-s-coal-consumption-is-set-to-reach-a-new-high-in-2022-as-the-energy-crisis-shakes-markets

  21. …and large as any development was, before the Europeans arrived every western hemisphere society was living a sustainable lifestyle. We, on the other hand have very nearly sucked the life out of this continent in a mere 400 years.

  22. Regarding Twitter, this is a fun one.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/bestofdyingtwit/status/1605580812216254465?t=uKIu2-spVibEV__zAae6ng

    In the video, Musk states that the solution for velocity is a complete rewrite. (“Velocity” means speed at which developers can make changes to the codebase).

    An engineer asks Musk what he means by a complete rewrite, starting with a “skeleton” or going back to the whiteboard. The engineer clarifies saying “Revolution or reform?”

    Musk responds that you can either try to amend the crazy stack that exists or start fresh. (“Stack” means the suite of interacting software systems that make up a larger system, in this case Twitter.)

    The same engineer then presses Musk, asking him to describe what exactly is “crazy” about the stack.

    Musk responds “Have you seen the diagram?” Presumably Musk is referring to an architectural diagram describing the interacting pieces of the aforementioned stack. These are often quite complicated.

    The engineer, frustrated, pushes, asking Musk to take them through the stack and explain what is crazy about it and how it differs from every other large scale software enterprise.

    Musk responds by calling him a jackass. In a video posted in the same thread, it is revealed that the engineer was muted by the meeting host, and Musk says “what a moron”.

    I hope even non-techy folk can see just how aggressively stupid this is on the part of Musk.

    2. Rewriting from scratch is a great way to kill a product. My two favorite examples are Dbase and Netscape. It’s not actually garanteed to kill the product, but chances it will are high.

      1. You are correct Alimnquated.

        “Feature Bloat” is also a good way to become a cash furnace. Software development are 6 figure jobs.

        Several thousand developers trying to justify their jobs. Let’s build microsoft power point and microsoft excel inside of TWITTER and SOCIAL TRUTH. /Sarc

        How many more “features” does TWITTER need?

        Text Messaging, Video, Photos, Sound, Emails. Probably close to enough.

        The basic features that made the software popular are usually enough. And I am a former software developer.

  23. Brazil’s President-elect has said that he will appoint Marina Silva as the head of the country’s environment ministry.

    1. “Don’t hope for a new life …

      “don’t imagine a new world…

      “and certainly don’t try to build one …

      “because capitalism is all you can look forward to.”

      Does he have another view?

  24. A question on Musk . Tesla shares are down by 70% from peak (was $616 now $ 112 ) how come he is not getting any margin calls ? All his ventures Space X , Solar X , Boring company , twitter etc are financed by providing his TSLA shares as collateral . Another case of ” Too Big To Fail ” ? Any answers .

    1. Perhaps it’s triggered by a particular share value?
      I can’t see any bankers offering Musk a lifeline when it’s their job to take his money. A Saudi guy might bail him out, like he does for Kushner. Compromised.

    1. Anybody with common sense and old enough to get laid understands without even reading such an article, not to say this isn’t a good one.

      Free speech does NOT extend to screaming “FIRE” in a crowded theater.

      And we didn’t need Dunn and Kruger to explain arrogant stupidity.

      Since I was a little kid I’ve heard people say “So and So is so stupid,ignorant, dumb, retarded ( take your choice) he doesn’t even know it.

    2. I’ve been with my husband for forty years now and feel I know a bit about this subject.

      There is no LGBTQ community. [I cannot get a “plus sign” to show up in this comment]

      The L, the G, the B, and the T have little if anything to do with each another. The Q is a trendy bullshit construct. [Again, disappearing “plus sign.” That’s all right, it’s fake anyway.]

      The L and the G exist in respectful tension because the L has the extra dimension of misogyny to cope with.

      The B are so invisible as to be non-existent. B exist as a small percentage and wants very little to do with G especially. Go on any pickup app. “Married B seeks married B” and all else be damned.

      T is an entirely different animal than all the above put together. Most T I have known are heterosexual men who “become” “lesbians.” The current ideology requires us to believe an impossibility–that human beings can change sex. They cannot.

      The current ideological bandwagon requiring declaration of one’s “preferred” pronouns and adherence to the catechism “Trans women are women” is nothing I and many others want anything to do with. “Gender” may be fluid, but sex is binary.

      Religion is crap, period. The answer is not to construct a new religion. Do what you want, and don’t tell me what to believe.

      I prefer “live and let live.”

      1. If you said many of those things on Reddit or Discord, you would be shunned if not banned for Transphobia. The community is supposed to be allies of each other. I also suggest you familiarize yourself with the term Intersex (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intersex) before stating that “sex is binary” as if that always is true.

        1. Sprouse, my view is better summarized by evolutionary biologist Jerry Coyne.

          A discussion of gender and sex.

          Coyne’s brief summation of the issue is brilliant.

          See also Getting straight about sex on his website Why Evolution Is True.

          Intersex is a red herring.

          There is no “community” of Ls, Gs, Bs and Ts. Let alone friggin “Qs” and “plusses.” Such “community” exists only in paragraphs written by activist ideologues.

          I’m a 62-year-old married gay farmer, and I don’t give a bloody f— about “being shunned” on social media.

  26. Many of the psychological capabilities to improve societal resilience can be integrated into three broad focus areas: education, information, and inclusion.
    “After what some call a weak and divided defense against Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea, Ukraine’s response to Russia’s 2022 assault is nothing short of impressive. They have so far taken back 50 percent of the territory Russia occupied at the start of the war. What accounts for the difference? After 2014, Ukraine adopted a whole-of-society approach to help bolster its government and civic sector capabilities to include psychological resilience. The result is a Ukraine that remains determined, confident in victory, innovative, and united. Other nations should follow step.”
    https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/psychological-capabilities-for-resilience/

    Inclusion; noun: the practice or policy of providing equal access to opportunities and resources for people who might otherwise be excluded or marginalized, such as those who have physical or intellectual disabilities and members of other minority groups.

  27. Coal is dead you say. Well, not yet; maybe next year?

    BIG COAL MINERS’ PROFITS TRIPLE AS DEMAND SURGES

    “The world’s largest coal mining companies tripled their profits in 2022 to reach a total of more than $97bn, defying expectations for an industry that was thought to be in terminal decline. As global demand for the fuel rose to record levels, total earnings from coal operations at the world’s 20 largest coal miners reached $97.7bn during the most recent 12-month period for which financial information is available, compared with $28.2bn during the same period a year earlier, according to Financial Times research and data from S&P Capital IQ. Many countries that once pledged to quit coal have turned back to it as a reliable source of heat and power as energy security concerns became a top priority following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/9c62d294-8ee5-42a6-9df0-85e397e93ed1

    1. “Coal is dead you say. Well, not yet; maybe next year?”

      Forty years from now it will be well beyond peak.

    2. Its going to take a long time, and a lot of further combustion of fossilized solar energy, for 9 billion people to wind this thing down.

  28. One wonders how 2022 will stack up on this metric.

    GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS REBOUNDED TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVEL IN HISTORY IN 2021

    “Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rose by 6% in 2021 to 36.3 billion tonnes, their highest ever level, as the world economy rebounded strongly from the Covid-19 crisis and relied heavily on coal to power that growth, according to IEA analysis.”

    https://www.iea.org/news/global-co2-emissions-rebounded-to-their-highest-level-in-history-in-2021

  29. If Old Man Business As Usual manages to stay on his feet another ten years or so, Tony Seba may turn out to be right about the speed at which electric cars will displace conventional cars.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/hertz-increased-its-fleet-of-electric-rental-cars-then-its-profits-exploded/ar-AA15NZRq?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=4d87ba53a3824f4ddf7eb116fed0c864
    But another key contributor was Hertz’ discovery that EVs are between 50-60% cheaper to maintain than gasoline-powered cars.

    I believe in the free enterprise system, but I also believe it can stand a little help and tweaking along the way sometimes.

    It would suit me just fine to see a requirement that car companies would have to build a certain minimum number of really small fairly short range electric cars, with the number required being keyed to total company production of passenger cars and light trucks.

    A sub compact electric car with a hundred mile range probably wouldn’t need more than one quarter, maybe less, of the materials needed to make the battery of a three hundred mile range mid size car.

    1. So it follows that overall efficiency of an 100m ev is greater than a 300m. I’m wondering if an option to add a charger engine would help(Mazda was researching this with the rotary)
      I’m not sure why there isn’t more of movement to conserve oil especially now that Saudis are warning. Recent ZH article link on peak oil had most comments dismissing it.
      I forgot about it during fracking but it’s obvious that was a bubble.

      1. Good to see you posting, HB

        True about that particular model, but it was simply ahead of it’s time.

        If you foresee tough economic times ahead, as I do, but not an outright collapse of the economy (I’m hoping that doesn’t happen here in the USA) there will be a market for such cars, simply because they’re cheap.

        And there might be a market for them simply because it may prove to be tough to impossible to build enough longer range medium to full size cars, because of limited supplies of raw materials for batteries.

        If the shit hits the fan really hard in terms of oil supplies, you and I may live to see lawyers and CPA’s commuting in sub compact electric cars……….. because you simply CAN’T move the suburbs downtown, lol.

        What would you rather do yourself, in that situation?
        Give up your mcmansion out in the ‘burbs’ with the large back yard, garage, pool, four bedrooms, and well to do neighbors……… or move into a ( most likely non existent) deluxe rental unit on a bus line, and share the bus with smelly trash talking laborers?…………

        Or buy a mini electric car, if that’s all you CAN buy?

    3. Does this offering from Nissan/Mitsubishi fit the bill?

      Can the Tiny Nissan Sakura Make It Big in the EV Market?

      Nissan and Mitsubishi are seeing healthy sales of their new lightweight kei-class electric vehicles, which combine quality and affordability. They may be breathing new life into the Japan EV market, but what are their prospects on the global stage? [snip]

      Last year, the Tesla Model Y, Tesla Model 3, and the Wuling Hongguang Mini competed for the top spot in the international EV market, with the Volkswagen ID.4 in fourth place. All of these models except for the Hongguang, which is sold only in China, have achieved a cruising range of 500 km or more, making it clear that this sort of range is desired in the current EV market. In other words, the 180 km range of the Sakura and eK X is not enough.

      In addition, the fact that these Japanese offerings come in the kei class may also have a negative effect in the global market. European compact cars that could rival the Sakura overseas in many cases surpass existing kei vehicles in terms of engine and chassis performance, because they are not bound by Japan’s domestic kei standards.

      Observers point in particular at the 1.48 m limit for a kei car’s width as a factor preventing global takeup. This narrow tread width—the distance between the outer edges of the tires on each side of the car—impacts cornering capabilities and stability at high speeds. The Sakura and eK X, with a tread width some 15 cm smaller than their compact competitors overseas, may find themselves at a disadvantage here.

      Nevertheless, the domestic success of the Sakura and eK X has shown the possibility of a major change in the Japanese automobile market, where EVs have struggled. In short, it wasn’t the case that EVs had no chance here, but rather that EVs truly needed in the Japanese market have finally appeared, and are selling well.

      1. “Enough” in terms of marketability and range in electric cars is an entirely open question, going forward.

        Sometimes I’m just about dead sure I’m the only person who comments here on a regular basis who has any FIRST HAND experience with poverty and tough times………

        ( This is not to say others haven’t OBSERVED poor people, or maybe even spent a lot of time trying to help them. )

        People who haven’t LIVED on peanuts money JUST DON’T GET IT. I grew up living on peanuts. My family was poor……. although I didn’t even KNOW that, back then. We had the farm, we never paid rent, we always had PLENTY of good food, etc.

        Any body who could AFFORD a car such as the 2012 Mitsubishi i-MiEV could also afford a much nicer ordinary car, such as a Honda Civic etc. The ONLY customers for such a car were people on the cutting edge, environmentally and politically.

        Nobody bought that car for any reason other than to be on the cutting edge. People who NEEDED cheap transportation bought new Civics or Corollas if they could AFFORD a cheap new car. People who couldn’t afford a cheap new car bought used…….. and in one hell of a lot of cases, gas mileage, even if the buyer was counting every penny…….. hardly even figured in.

        WHY?

        I’m not exactly hard up myself, but I live that way, in terms of managing my money. Give me a fifteen mpg used F150 with a two hundred dollar payment or a thirty five mpg Civic, at four or five hundred bucks per month, and I’ll take the Ford truck every time…… so long as I’m spending LESS than a couple of hundred bucks a month on gas for the Ford.

        The Civic after all does NOT run on air. The Ford, if I don’t put a lot of miles on it, will leave me with two hundred bucks MORE money in my pocket from one month to the next….. money for rent, groceries, shoes for the kids, beer, cigarettes……….

        I know a lot of people who drive old Crown Vics or Buicks because they’re CHEAPER to own and drive, on a monthly basis, than a Civic or Corolla.

        Life is a week to week or month to month affair when you’re poor, or close to being poor.

        I could personally afford a better truck that gets a LOT better mileage than my ancient old F150, but in my case I put the money I save on a monthly basis into projects that GROW in value, rather than depreciate like a car or truck.

        I know some people ( who have twenty times as much income as I do) who live in apartments not much bigger than my sun room.

        They live in such apartments because that’s all they can AFFORD, where they WANT to live, in some particular neighborhood in NYC. Or maybe they HAVE to live there in order to keep that six figure job.

        When there’s a good bit of shit in the fan, and they either can’t afford anything bigger, or there’s nothing bigger AVAILABLE, CPA’s and lawyers will drive subcompact electric cars.

        If you believe we’re headed for economic and environmental collapse, you have to believe that such cars will be the NORM rather than the exception, if things go downhill gradually rather than abruptly.

        If things go down hill gradually, we will find ourselves living in an economy managed on a war time like basis.

        Gasoline and food were rationed in the past, and batteries and food may well be rationed in the future. There may well be laws that prevent any new cars bigger than sub compacts being built and sold.

        Maybe there’s a day coming when you get a ration ticket for three gallons of gasoline a week…… which you could save up for the annual trip in a rented Soccer Mom van to Grandma’s house, or you could use it to take your family or a client out once or twice a month locally, in your existing dino mobile Lexus or Mercedes.

  32. Only a few years ago deniers were suggesting an increase in Antarctic sea ice “proved” the earth wasn’t warming, despite real scientists providing valid explanations of how a changing climate could produce the phenomena, if only temporarily. And it was definitely temporary because currently the ice is setting new daily lows, the lowest anomalies ever and is likely soon to show the lowest extent ever, possibly approaching the “ice free” limit of one million square kilometres.

    https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/

    Global ice extent is also showing lowest daily levels, and with an el Nino now almost certain 2023 could look like 2016 with llots of new ow records set.

    https://zacklabe.com/global-sea-ice-extent-conc/

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