STEO – Page 3 – Peak Oil Barrel

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook and Tight Oil Update, November 2023

11/11/202311/11/2023 D Coyne 160 Comments

The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early November. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.

The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was revised lower in November compared to September (we skipped the October STEO). World C+C output is expected to decrease in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2023 and then increase over the next 5 quarters. Annual average World C+C output increases by about 1028 kb/d Mb/d in 2023 to 81804 kb/d and then to 82555 kb/d in 2024, about 445 kb/d below the centered 12 month average peak in 2018. This month’s World C+C estimates are about 400 kb/d lower than September’s estimate for 2023 and 1150 kb/d lower for 2024 due to the revisions in the STEO forecast since Sept 2023.

June Non-OPEC and World Oil Production

10/12/202310/12/2023 Ovi 162 Comments

By Ovi

This month’s report is a shorter version of previous posts because the EIA’s International Energy Statistics update for June is not available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few of these countries and the world.

Where STEO data was used, the ratio of C + C to All Liquids was calculated. The average for the last four months was used to project June, July and August production for a few countries.

World oil production and projection charts are presented at the end of this post.

The October STEO is projecting June Non-OPEC oil production to increase by 1,069 kb/d to 51,079 kb/d. Close to 500 kb/d of that increase is associated with the upward revision of Russian output from last month. In the previous EIA May report, Russian condensate was not included in Russian production.

STEO and Tight Oil Update, September 2023

09/27/202309/27/2023 D Coyne 160 Comments

The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early September. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.

OPEC Update, September 2023

09/19/202309/19/2023 D Coyne 264 Comments

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for September 2023 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is August 2023 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In many of the OPEC charts that follow the blue line with markers is monthly output and the thin red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.

STEO and Tight Oil Update, August 2023

08/31/202309/02/2023 D Coyne 161 Comments

The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early August. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.

The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was revised higher in August compared to July. World C+C output is expected to decrease in the second and third quarters of 2023 and then increase over the next 5 quarters. Annual average World C+C output increases by about 1000 kb/d in 2023 to 81743 kb/d and then to 82967 kb/d in 2024, less than 50 kb/d below the centered 12 month average peak in 2018. This month’s World C+C estimates are about 300 kb/d higher than last month for 2023 and 400 kb/d higher for 2024 due to the revisions in the STEO forecast this month.