The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for May 2023 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is April 2023 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In many of the OPEC charts that follow the blue line with markers is monthly output and the thin red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.
The Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Most of the oil information was covered in an earlier post. Oil price forecast below.
The EIA updated the Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) in March and also released the 2023 version of the Annual Energy Outlook in March. This post will take a brief look at both of these reports with a focus on Crude plus Condensate (C+C) Output for the World, OPEC and Non-OPEC in the case of the STEO through the fourth quarter of 2024 and US C+C output for three oil price cases from 2022 to 2050, reference (medium oil price), high and low oil price cases.
A guest post by Ovi
All of the Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs February Petroleum Supply monthly PSM which provides updated information up to December 2022.
U.S. December production decreased by 276 kb/d to 12,101 kb/d. For December, the state with the largest decrease was North Dakota with 135 kb/d followed by Texas with 65 kb/d while New Mexico had the largest increase, 46 kb/d. The December production decline was caused by bad weather in many states.
Read MoreThe Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on February 7, 2023. For most nations except the US and total OPEC crude oil output the forecast for future production is for total liquids only. In this month’s post I will try to estimate the crude plus condensate (C+C) output indicated by the STEO total liquids estimate for the top 10 non-OPEC producers and the World minus the top 10 non-OPEC producers. I will focus on quarterly output so that we can compare with recent OPEC estimates for World supply and demand in 2023. The estimate for C+C uses historical output of both C+C and total liquids and uses the average of the ratio of C+C to total liquids for the past 12 quarters (2019Q4 to 2022Q3) for the top 10 non-OPEC producers (except the US where a C+C forecast is provided) and for the World minus the top 10 non-OPEC producers. In most of the charts that follow the units on the vertical axis are kb/d of C+C output.
