217 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum. September 1, 2020”

  1. Post by Hickory in the old thread:

    “Globally, nuclear has grown considerably since Fukushima earthquake.meltdown.
    WNA: global nuclear generation nears record high in 2019
    31 August 2020”

    I removed the url because it gave me an “error loading article” error message. Similar news can be found at other outlets.

    It’s funny, because up until 2018 the production numbers published by the WNA were identical to those published by the IAEA, while the 2019 numbers by IAEA show only a slight increase in nuclear electricity production.

    WNA:
    https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/facts-and-figures/reactor-database.aspx

    IAEA:
    https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/WorldTrendinElectricalProduction.aspx

    With the WNA being a lobbying organization for the nuclear industry, I think they are getting creative with the numbers to make nuclear look better.

    Looking at the capacity retired in 2018 and the few reactors who came online, I highly doubt the increase reported by WNA. It would have taken quite a few existing reactors to perform significantly better. Hard to achieve with aging equipment.

    If anyone finds out how the WNA came up with their number, please let me know.

    1. Meanwhile,

      WORLD METHANE EMISSIONS HIT NEW HIGH

      Research findings, published July 14 in the journals Earth System Science Data and Environmental Research Letters, place Earth on a path for the most catastrophic warming scenario outlined by climate models. Annual emissions of methane have gone up by nine percent since the early 2000s — that amounts 50 million more tons every year — and the methane that has been pumped into the atmosphere since 2000 is equivalent to adding 350 million cars to the world’s roads. If left unchecked, the emissions scenario the world is currently tracking is predicted to warm the planet by three to four degrees Celsius by 2100.

      “There’s a hint that we might be able to reach peak carbon dioxide emissions very soon. But we don’t appear to be even close to peak methane. It isn’t going down in agriculture, it isn’t going down with fossil fuel use.”

      https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/world-methane-emissions-hit-new-high-180975362/

      1. Interesting read. And, from your link: “Regardless of where you stand on the issue, new research coming to light from some of the Arctic’s top observational scientists more clearly describes what appears to be an increasingly dangerous situation.”

      2. There’s no free lunch but I would rather deal with the warming the so called methane brings on instead of have to sit in my house and roast without air conditioning or freeze without heating.

          1. But it is not a yes or no question.

            Yeah, that was a false pair of alternatives.

            We can use much less fossil fuel and still get the job done.

            It’s important to keep in mind that in the long run we don’t need fossil fuel at all to get the job done. And even in the shorter run one can run A/C without any fossil fuels at all. If you run A/C with PV or wind, you’re not really using any fossil fuels at all, even if they were used for manufacture or installation. That’s because “embedded” FF energy is really just a metaphor for analysis purposes: it’s not real on a continuing basis. PV or wind, once installed emits no GHGs at all. And both now have a very high E-ROI, so the FF used for manufacture and installation is “paid back” in less than the first year. And, finally, later generations of PV and wind will use power from earlier generations, eliminating even the startup FF consumption.

            2. So, does that mean you think we have 20-30 years to put Humpty Dumpty back together? If so, NASA doesn’t agree with you.

              “Even if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases today, global warming would continue to happen for at least several more decades, if not centuries. That’s because it takes a while for the planet (for example, the oceans) to respond, and because carbon dioxide – the predominant heat-trapping gas – lingers in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. There is a time lag between what we do and when we feel it.”

              BTW, in a tribute to scientist Prof Charles Keeling, given at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting [2005] – Hansen warned that “we are on the precipice of climate system tipping points beyond which there is no redemption”.

              https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/

            3. No Doug, I think its already far too late to pretend we have an untarnished environment.
              The 20-30 year span I was referring to is the absolute minimum period in which civilization will still be heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Simply because we are so dependent upon it, and as a whole we don’t move quick.
              Nick likes to point out that humanity does not need fossil fuel. Sure that is correct since we had none until a couple hundred years ago. Lets not mention that we had clearcut continents by hand wherever we settled in large numbers for the wood energy by then, and that global population was less than 1 billion at year 1800.
              Regardless, I consider that a whole argument irrelevant (theoretical) for the intermediate timeframe.
              We will be burning fossil fuel in large quantities for the forseeable future- nature be damned.

            4. Odds are more likely you will be trading with the tribe in the next valley for food.

            5. Hickory, a couple of thoughts.

              First, the abstract idea that we don’t need fossil fuels at all is important. Some people can’t imagine a world without some fossil fuels, perhaps for aviation or shipping, or seasonal generation. Certainly, the comment that started this thread can’t envision such a future. It’s important to come to a consensus on this, I think: fossil fuels aren’t essential, and we’d be better off overall by moving away from them ASAP.

              It’s true that partial solutions may be cost-optimal. But…they have no power to fire the imagination. Here’s a big example: the Chevy Volt never took off, and the Tesla and Leaf did, despite the beautiful and elegant solution embodied in the Volt plug-in system. People just like the simplicity of the pure battery solution, and they like it’s being 100% non-FF.

              2nd, the article you linked isn’t bad, but it has a common flaw, as we see in this quote: “ The study did an exhaustive analysis of intermittency and resource adequacy for 2035 under the assumed conditions. …In doing so, only two options for meeting the resource adequacy required were considered – battery storage and additional transmission. “

              This is highly unrealistic: batteries are a bad solution for seasonal intermittency/backup. The German and California planners, who are in the lead of real planning for a 100% renewables future, recognize this and are planning to use “wind-gas”, along with a wide portfolio of other useful things, like long-distance transmission, overbuilding, DSM, etc.

              So, getting that last 10% of the grid is probably substantially cheaper than this study envisions. And, as Doug’s comment implies, very soon we’ll need to start pulling CO2 out of the atmosphere and sea. It’s very likely to be cheaper to stop putting it in…

            6. “Some people can’t imagine a world without some fossil fuels”
              Its nice to want to help people with imagination. I like imagination, like John Lennon sang.. no religion too…

              But the reality for the intermediate term is a world where fossil fuels will be a big part of the energy mix. The biggest in fact, until a huge amount of work and money gets put into building up replacement, and the world learns to get by with much less energy overall. Just the way it is.

            7. I agree that we’re not likely to transition away from FF ASAP. But “likely” isn’t the same as “what can be done if we realize what’s good for us”.

              And, I agree it would be a good idea to sharply reduce energy consumption in the short term: that would be a good strategy for reducing GHG emission, while we build up renewables.

              In the long term, wind and solar can provide just as much clean energy as we could need, and do it cheaper than FF. Does that make sense to you? If not, why not, specifically?

            8. Nick, its a theoretical discussion for the time beyond 2050.
              I’m not one to get into that exercise. Maybe someone else.
              Currently, to say that we don’t need fossil fuel sounds actually delusional.
              I think many people just tune you out as soon as you say it. I doubt that is your intention.

              The next 10-20 years, and specially the next 2months (Nov 3rd) are what I am more focused on.

        2. Jon —

          The logic of your comment fails me. Sure, if you have a natural gas (methane) fired furnace/air conditioner you are producing some carbon dioxide and water vapor in order to warm and cool your house. But, what has that got to do with methane releases contributing to climate change?

            1. It’s perhaps best to reduce one’s empathy for the doomed prior to a famine

            2. Personal comfort is a relative thing isn’t it? “I need to have the house at 26°C constantly” and that works fine until the day the hurricane wipes it off the Earth and now you live in a tent at ambient. Or a fire burns it down and you live in a shelter with a bunch of other sweaty people and no longer have control of the dial. Its easy to be smug and self satisfied when everything is going well for you but if you look around for even a fraction of a second you might notice that it is not going well for many people in large areas of the world right now.

            3. Best not to accept the premise.

              The comment from this troll suggested that one had to choose between comfort and mitigating climate change. This is false.

            4. Bad Karma & COVID-19: A Desperate Short-Circuit Opportunisation By The Well-Connected?

              Perhaps the main problem in this slowly-unfolding dystopia is that it upholds (by legal decrees and violence or threats thereof including imprisonment) the comforts of some over, and as coming from, the discomforts of others.

              If you live in ‘Imperial’ America, which I think you do, (I also seem to recall you mentioning working for that government too) perhaps that is especially true.

              So adjusting that system’s comforts to equitably/ethically allow the comforts of everyone, rather than just a connected few, is what may more effectively address that which we might claim to care about, such as the climate.

              (Of course, many people with competing needs can be ‘knocked out’ by a virus, but it’s bad karma to say the least. But then the system, itself, is bad karma– by its own legal decrees.

              So what does that suggest?)

              The planet is much more than just ‘a climate’, however, so that’s part of the (perceptual, policy, etc.) problem.
              An overfocus on something like the climate might have paradoxical counter-effects that go completely against what we might be trying, or claiming to be trying, to achieve.

              We need to endeavor to be holistic/systemic/ethical. Doing so will necessarily include and involve other lifeforms, including the fellow human variety. If the system rampantly trashes everything– climate, arthropods, ocean life, etc.– in its own self-defeating interests, it will invariably roll over its own creators/upholders in the process.

              We shouldn’t have to tragically write and read that black lives matter by the way– or any other lives for that matter. It should go without saying. So there’s something seriously wrong.

              Whitney Webb: Bioterror War Games, DARPA, Technocracy & COVID-1984
              Geopolitics & Empire

              “Hard-hitting investigative journalist Whitney Webb discusses the numerous bioterror war game simulations that took place prior to Covid-19 being declared a pandemic. She describes the work of DARPA and how numerous science fiction-like technologies are being deployed such as DNA-altering vaccines and brain-machine interfaces for soldiers. She discusses the artificial intelligence and technocracy being promoted as a solution to Covid-19 and gives her thoughts on the US-China ‘New Cold War’ narrative and how it may not be what it seems.”

            5. Best to just ignore the troll. There were some thoughtful comments yet I would appreciate them even more if they had not been inspired by such willful ignorance or malice.

      3. Ah I forgot about Robert Scribbler. He used to refer to himself as ‘an emerging threat analyst’. Then he stopped doing that lol. Has he gotten around to predicting the famine yet?
        He sounded balls deep in Tesla stock last time I remember checking him out.

  3. Despite trump grand pronouncement last week-President Donald Trump on Sunday announced emergency authorization to treat COVID-19 patients with convalescent plasma — a move he called “a breakthrough,”

    Today-
    “A panel of experts convened by the National Institutes of Health said Tuesday there is “insufficient data” to show convalescent plasma works against the coronavirus, refuting claims made by President Donald Trump and the head of the Food and Drug Administration.

    The panel said it reviewed available data on the treatment and found nothing from “well-controlled, adequately powered randomized clinical trials that demonstrate the efficacy and safety of convalescent plasma” for the treatment of Covid-19. It also said “there was no difference in 7-day survival” for patients, contradicting FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn, who said the treatment resulted in a 35% improvement in survival. ”

    More bullshit from the ‘swallow some disinfectant’ embarrassment of president.

    1. Looking on the bright side, I know of at least ONE trump voter who has seen the light within the last couple of days. I won’t say laugh out loud this time, because it’s so serious, but the interview with the Fox woman did the trick for this man. Planes full of men with weapons flying into DC are right up there with lions tigers and bears, oh MY.

      He’s OBVIOUSLY raving now.

      Anybody that can’t see it is blind to reality.

      1. Mac, I know you live in a neighborhood with a lot of Trump supporters. Have any of them altered their opinion of Trump? Or are they all still blind to reality?

        P.S. I think I know one who has seen the light. He says he is an old farmer. 😉

        1. Remote-Leadership Screen Images And The Very Real Shadows For The Human Being From Symbiotic Social and Material Technologies

          “I… didn’t vote for him [Trump] in 2016 (or Hillary), but I will this time.

          I’m in favor of his policy stands for defending the US border and stopping the flow of illegal migrants, on ending our foolish misadventures in foreign lands, on reducing the government’s stranglehold on private enterprise, and on opposing the matrix of rackets that make up the ‘DC swamp.’ I admire Mr. Trump’s resilience in the face of a relentless assault by ‘the Intel Community’, the DC cabal of Lawfare seditionists, and the despicable confabulations of The New York Times and other media voices-of-authority captive to the Left.

          …his political opponents would surely make things worse with their crypto-Marxist fantasies of a totalist American nanny-state. Few in any quarter of US leadership understand the long emergency we’ve entered, and most who do are too timid to spell out what it will actually require of us in the way of rigor and fortitude.” ~ JHK

          ” ‘Congratulations, you’ve inherited a dystopia. Now kindly run it, please. Thank you… Takers?’

          Given what we are supposed to know about this nation-state crony-capitalist plutarchy dystopia, who in their right mind would run for president? [or vote for any candidate?]” ~ Caelan MacIntyre

          Those of a tragic world of their making.
          Those forever trapped, despite everything, in their technosociopolitical Plato’s Caves.

          “…The map is a simulacrum that, as a model, loses all reference to reality… reality exists only as rotting shreds that are attached to the map, and this is the state of our age according to Baudrillard; that the model, itself, has primacy for us; the real has become irrelevant…” ~ Frances Flannery-Dailey

          Another Bloody Election

        2. Hi Ron,

          I’ve been keeping a close eye on my friends, family, and neighbors for the last few months for the specific purpose of discovering how many of them may have changed their mind about trump and company.

          I’m thinking maybe four or five percent of 2016 local trump voters will be staying home on election day because they’ve finally decided that enough is enough.

          That’s not nearly enough to matter in Virginia, because we have what amounts to a NEW de facto political state within the this state, which is sometimes written as NoVa, for Northern Virginia.

          The urban belt up and down the eastern third of the state controls Virginia politics now, so Virginia is blue as of our last statewide election cycle.

          Demographics ARE destiny.

          Most of the people in my immediate neighborhood haven’t opened a book since well before they dropped out of high school, their KJB excepted.

          Local politics are about guns, Jesus, abortion, and immigrants.

          It’s not that these people can’t think. It’s that they’re like computers, garbage in, garbage out.

          They don’t know anything about politics in depth beyond the usual sound bites and don’t care to learn. They know what they like, and what they don’t like, and they’re like everybody else every where else.

          Once they have made their minds up about something, they would rather die than admit even to themselves that they were/ are wrong.

          The younger people with education and brains have hauled ass for places where they can make a better living, for the most part.

          I’m here because I have roots here, and while I think of cities as fabulous places to visit, I have no desire to live in one again.

          My nearest neighbor is a quarter of a mile away. I’m living in a resort like environment, and it takes me a couple of hours to walk to the far corner of my farm and back, lol.

          And except for a few damnyankees who have moved in over the last few years, if I run out of gas my worst enemy stops, gives me a ride to the store, and back to my old truck, with gasoline in a can loaned to me by the store owner, lol.

          The local people aren’t mean or evil. Most of them would give you the shirt off of their back. They’re just ignorant, and it’s not their fault.
          We’re all mostly the product of the environment we grew up in.

          1. Most of the people in my immediate neighborhood haven’t opened a book since well before they dropped out of high school, their KJB excepted.

            LOL. Yeah, that explains a lot. Remember in 2016 when Trump said: “I love the poorly educated.”

            We’re all mostly the product of the environment we grew up in.

            Yes, we all are. We are the product of our heredity and environment because there is nothing else.

            “Of course, you can argue with the proposition that all we are is knobs and turnings, genes and environment. You can insist that there’s something…something MORE. But if you try to visualize the form this something would take, or articulate it clearly, you’ll find the task impossible, for any force that is not in the genes or the environment is outside of physical reality as we perceive it. It’s beyond scientific discourse.”

            Robert Wright
            The Moral Animal

            1. “We are the product of our heredity and environment because there is nothing else.”

              Democrats go on and on about how Republicans and rival countries are fascists and then immediately go off on “blood and soil”, social darwanism, and some corporatist fantasies about labour community and bussiness coming together to keep plutocracy in check. And that’s quite something.

            2. Are you frigging nuts or just batshit crazy? Your comment had absolutely nothing to do with the quote you pasted from me. What kind of muddled thinking made you think it did?

            4. Well, for starters, “Social Darwinism” and “Darwinism” are two entirely different things. But either way, it still makes no sense whatsoever. Neither has any connection to my statement: “We are the product of our heredity and environment because there is nothing else.”

            5. fdgfff-
              If you prefer to not be a fascist, or associated with fascists, or in support of fascists,
              here is an easy step to take.
              Don’t vote for one.
              In fact, vote against one.

              Remember, the whole country worked very hard in WWII to knock them down.
              Honor that effort.

          2. the characterization of people is priceless/dead on ofm

            and as was said upthread- “My personal comfort matters more to me than global warming.”

            1. Maybe in some rural areas the populace cannot envision life beyond FF, given how many of the jobs (mostly good jobs) depend on them presently.

              I have used my County as an example and will again. 700+ work at an oil refinery. $100K+ a year plus benefits. 100+ work in upstream. $40-80K per year. Auto part factory employs 200+. $17.50 per hour to start. Two more within 1/2 hour drive, same starting pay scale, each employ even more.

              Auto manufacturing facility one hour away. Employs several thousand. Starting pay $23/hr.

              But, we also see the end to a certain extent. One small coal fired power plant closed over 5 years ago. Completely dismantled and disposed of. Close to 100 good jobs gone. A few miles from it a more modern one completed in the late 1970s announced closure in 2024. Another about a half hour away is running at half capacity.

              We have more and more wind farms locally. Seems like constructing them are good jobs, but maintaining them I’m not sure about.

              Part of the problem is perception. Those leading the charge are East Coast/West Coast urban.

              For example, take Sidney, NE. Was HQ for Cabella’s. Then corporate raider billionaire from NYC forced sale to Bass Pro Shops. Sidney, NE lost around 2,000 jobs.

              The same corporate raider is now messing with the largest oil refiner in the US. Major layoffs coming. Where are most refineries located? Rural, due to NIMBY.

              I wish rural was more open to city people moving here, and that we had what city people want, as so many can now work from home. That’s the opportunity to keep rural from dying. But idk if that will happen.

            4. I thought Herter’s was pretty cool too (I bought some boots from them). I was disappointed to discover how right wing they were. Probably typical of Cabela’s too. Well, the products did what they were supposed to do, so their political orientation wasn’t that relevant.

            5. Eric said:

              “I was disappointed to discover how right wing they were.”

              Back then things were not so polarized, especially in terms of the environment. Does anybody remember Fishing Facts magazine? I tweeted a long thread about the Peak Oil awareness they wrote about, a couple days ago.

              https://twitter.com/WHUT/status/1300908895418888195

            6. It a legitimate concern Shallow Sand- the loss of jobs.
              In the oil and gas industry its about low prices for the product, as you know.
              But in other industries like auto production, textile and miscellaneous manufacturing it is about international competition. That is not going to change.
              And in other industries it is about mechanization and robotics. Just think how this played out in agriculture over the last hundred years- profound shift in labor requirements, and land ownership.
              The shifts can sometimes be delayed, but changes are inevitable.
              With electrification of transport, its going to be bad for auto maintenance labor over the next 20 years, for example.
              It will be good for electrical component manufacturing.
              And with solar energy, it will be a big change to enable many millions of households to own their own power production.
              Overall, I don’t see any big way to stem the tide of job losses that has being going on for a long time. I’ve migrated for my job, several times. I think many many people are going to have to.

            7. My wife works for a multinational financial company as a project manager.

              Increasingly, jobs that used to be done in Canada or the US- implementation of payroll and benefits systems, for instance- are done in low-wage countries like India and Mauritius, and all the salaried jobs, whether on or offshore, require 50 to 80 hours a week.

              So: they are paying less money to get someone offshore to do one and a half jobs, and underpaying onshore workers and encouraging them to essentially falsify their time sheets (companies like to pretend to track the hours).

              All jobs are being eliminated, automated, off-shored, or overworked, which causes increased competition for those jobs that are left, which stabilizes or drives down wages.

              Over the next two years, there is going to have to be a sea change. Too many financial sectors are on a knife edge: I know a lot of professionals (film and advertising people) without an income at the moment. They have rent, mortgages and childcare to pay for, and those businesses drive things like travel and restaurants. If all those people can’t pay their rent, the rentors go bankrupt; if those who own default on their mortgages, the banks lose money. If there are no restaurants or airlines, millions more jobs are lost.

              This is a new financial reality. Moving isn’t going to solve a global job scarcity, and underpaid workers are going to drive economies to third world standards unless we change.

              What kind of change is the question…

            8. “What kind of change?” It seems that we are nearing the end of a long process where the economy and the society are treated as quite separate entities. The problem is that it isn’t working any more. The GDP continues to rise yet virtually all of the benefit accrues to a diminishing portion of the society. Corporations are by design sociopathic (Their only obligation is to the shareholders), farms are non-profit enterprises.
              Whatever changes are in store need to be about changing the primary goal of society from growing GDP and maintaining corporate profitability to one of assuring a respectable place in the society for every human that wants one. That is going to have to happen pretty soon as I suspect that we simply cannot keep handing jobs over to automation or the lowest paid earthling where ever she is (the women are always the lowest paid) and expect citizens to keep buying stuff. The demagogues are about, testing their strength. Some have already arrived and are trying to settle in.

            9. Maybe your rural area is dying a slow death, but the Carolinas are booming with covid refugees from up North causing a major real estate rally.
              NYC seems to be dying a fast death if you read news magazines

            10. Going South doesn’t seem like a great plan — the State with the highest per capita infection rates are Louisiana, Florida, Mississippi, Arizona, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee, in that order.

              I’d say people fleeing south to avoid Covid-19 probably raises the average IQ of both Northern and Southern states though, so it’s all good.

    2. Actually it was even worse “inject some disinfectant” and “light inside the body”

  5. Norway was 70% EV or plug-in hybrid in August.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/02/norway-in-august-over-70-ev-market-share-and-heading-higher/

    September looks like it’s going to be a huge month for electric vehicles in Europe, with EV market share already spiking in a horrible overall market.

    https://europe.autonews.com/sales-market/tesla-sales-plunge-europe-even-ev-market-booms

    2020 is such a bizarre year. EVs (including plugin hybrids) were 18% of the European market (by unit) in July.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltaylor/2020/08/27/tesla-blown-away-as-renault-dominates-europes-july-ev-sales-party/#3135131151e5

    1. Europe may be reaching an EV tipping point. From the Forbes article:

      “EV registrations in Europe were up 131 percent year on year, to 230,700, in July.”

      “…electric vehicle (EV) sales accounted for 18 percent of the total sales in Europe in July.”

      “Total EV registrations in Europe jumped from 23,400 sales in July 2019 to 53,200 in 2020, with the models on offer climbing quickly from 28 models in 2019 to 38 this year.”

      Notably Tesla fell from number one to out of the top ten. Something you might want to consider if you own Tesla shares.

      Europe has always been poised to go electric quickly: high income, shorter range needs, urban air quality concerns, strong environmental concerns, low domestic oil production, etc. Now both France and Germany are offering huge subsidies for buyers (in addition to existing Norwegian ones). Just a wag, but wouldn’t be surprised by 90% market saturation by mid decade.

      1. The Tesla drop is probably a Covid blip.
        Hard to ship product you’re not allowed to build.

        2. “The Tesla drop is probably a Covid blip.
          Hard to ship product you’re not allowed to build.”

          The European carmakers had the same issue. The difference now is that there are many European EV that are considered as alternative by European customers, especially if they are cheaper than M3.

      2. Giga-Berlin is due to start production in 6 months. So far, they are right on schedule. This should solve many production, tax, and other logistical challenges for Tesla in Europe.

        2. “This should solve many production, tax, and other logistical challenges for Tesla in Europe.”

          The too high price of the M3 is not solved by the new factory, neither the quality of Tesla’s service.

    2. UK was 9.7% EV or plug-in hybrid in August. Last year it was 4.4%, so a 2.2x increase.

  7. Thursday morning trivia:

    RECORD CO2 EMISSIONS FOR ARCTIC WILDFIRES

    “Uncontrolled forest fires across one of the planet’s coldest regions has sent a quarter of a billion tonnes of CO2 spiralling into the atmosphere since January this year, topping by more than a third the total for 2019, according to satellite data.”

    “As carbon builds in the atmosphere, the energy needs to be released and that results in more extreme weather,” said Oksana Tarasova, head of the World Meteorological Organization’s Atmospheric Research and Environment Department in Geneva. “The biomass burning in Siberia is part of this pattern.”

    https://phys.org/news/2020-09-co2-emissions-arctic-wildfires-eu.html

    1. Meanwhile CO2 continues to grow at a healthy rate:
      Sep. 2, 2020: 411.85 ppm
      Sep. 2, 2019: 409.14 ppm

      1. CO2 emissions are real, but you know as well as I do humans will just continue our ways until we colonize another planet at which time we can just let earth explode lol.

  10. Stanford prof ordered to pay legal fees after dropping $10 million defamation case against another scientist

    “Mark Jacobson, who studies renewable energy at Stanford, sued in September 2017 in the Superior Court of the District of Columbia for defamation over a 2017 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) that critiqued a 2015 article he had written in the same journal. He sued PNAS and the first author of the paper, Christopher Clack, an executive at a firm that analyzes renewable energy.

    At the time, Kenneth White, a lawyer at Southern California firm Brown White & Osborn who frequently blogs at Popehat about legal issues related to free speech, said of the suit:

    ‘It’s not incompetently drafted, but it’s clearly vexatious and intended to silence dissent about an alleged scientist’s peer-reviewed article.’

    In February 2018, following a hearing at which PNAS argued for the case to be dismissed, Jacobson dropped the suit, telling us that he ‘was expecting them to settle’. The defendants then filed, based on the anti-SLAPP — for ‘Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation’ — statute in Washington, DC, for Jacobson to pay their legal fees.

    In April of this year, as noted then by Forbes, District of Columbia Superior Court Judge Elizabeth Carroll Wingo, who has been presiding over the case, ruled that Jacobson would have to pay those fees. In that ruling, Wingo wrote that the Court finds that the three asserted ‘egregious errors’ are statements reflecting scientific disagreements, which were appropriately explored and challenged in scientific publications; they simply do not attack Dr. Jacobson’s honesty or accuse him of misconduct.

    Jacobson appealed that decision, but Wingo upheld it in a June 25 order.

    Jacobson could be on the hook for more than $600,000, the total of what the plaintiffs have told the court were their legal costs — $535,900 for PNAS, and $75,000 for Clack.”

  11. Electricity: It’s Wonderfully Affordable, But it’s No Longer Getting Any Cheaper
    The generations-long trend toward lower prices reversed around the turn of the century, and increasing use of solar and wind power is part of the reason why

    “A naive observer, reading the reports of falling prices for photovoltaic cells and wind turbines, might conclude that the rising shares of solar and wind power will bring a new era of falling electricity prices. Just the opposite has been true…

    By 2015, Germany’s combined solar and wind capacity of nearly 84 gigawatts had surpassed the total installed in fossil-fueled plants, and by March 2019 more than 20 percent of all electricity came from the new renewables. However, over an 18-year period (2000 to 2018) electricity prices more than doubled, to €0.31/ kWh. The E.U.’s largest economy thus has the continent’s highest electricity prices, followed by heavily wind-dependent Denmark, at €0.3/kWh.

    A similar contrast can be seen in the United States. In California, where the new renewables have taken an increasing share, electricity prices have been rising five times as fast as the national mean and are now nearly 60 percent higher than the countrywide average.”

    1. Your post is just idiocy, Germany’s high energy prices are by design. It’s mostly taxes. The ideology of cheap energy totally failed in the Soviet block, and there is no reason for more enlightened countries to continue it.

      I remember staying in a hotel in Prague back in the day. There was a radio with just one knob, the on/off volume switch, because you were only allowed to listen to state radio. The heat was on full blast, and there was no way to turn it off, even though it was summer. It didn’t matter, energy was free.

      Germany’s high energy prices are a strong incentive not to waste energy, and it works as designed.

      1. So you are saying that the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Spectrum article is idiocy, but also agreeing with it? If so, okeedokee.

      2. ^ I decided not to bother with the hidden/masked and added costs of taxation/subsidy, but might as well thank you for spelling it out, decreasing EROEI and all that.

    1. If Germany were to have the climate of the American south or midwest ,the German people would be ninety percent of the way to giving up fossil fuels for transportation,heating and cooling.

    2. Agree Survivor,
      but people it seems don’t care much about complex subjects, trumps history of business failure, tax avoidance and fraud, or overt displays of a failed character, and anti-democratic values.
      Its the illusion they prefer.

    1. Trump is a con man and he has carefully selected his marks. The con always looks stupid and obvious to those who are not among the marks because it wasn’t designed to appeal to them. The con always looks stupid and obvious to those who knew the con man before he crafted his latest con like the people of New York. But Trump is a very good con man. And if you happen to be among those who he has crafted this con to appeal to the con is very effective. He spent years on it. Perfecting it. It is fraying around the edges now because it was full of promises that were unfulfilled and of course it is really hard to paper over something like an external shock brought on by a once in a generation pandemic. But being taken in by the con isn’t really a function of intelligence. It is a function of fitting all of the criteria that the con was designed to manipulate. Once having been taken in by the con it is very difficult to let go of it. First you are surrounded by a community of like minded people who will reject you if you start to question it. Second, you have to admit to yourself that you were taken in by a con. No one likes to do that. Have you ever known someone who obviously overpaid for an inferior product who continues to insist long after it becomes obvious that there is really something wonderful about this piece of shit he is stuck with? The fact remains if you want to understand Trumpism you have to delve into the phenomena of con men and the con. Because that is what it is.

      1. OK, this is to much for me today. I have to say something

        Mac- “Why Trump Supporters Can’t Admit Who He Really Is”

        SW- “Second, you have to admit to yourself that you were taken in by a con”

        “Trump is a con man and he has carefully selected his marks. The con always looks stupid and obvious to those who are not among the marks because it wasn’t designed to appeal to them”

        This post is for The “Trumpster aka KGB”

        Today is the same con as 4 years ago accept the names have been changed from HRC to Joe Biden. Was HRC prefect, no. And neither is Joe Biden. The difference today OFM, you can now see the con clearly. Four years ago Mac, you knew something was wrong with Trump but after 25 years of Republican attacks on HRC you just couldn’t get past you distaste for her. Today Biden is a much more of a difficult target for Trump and the Russians. Four years ago Mac, Trump couldn’t get you to vote for him, but he was able to suppress your vote with Gil Stein and convinced you to help them do their dirty work.

        Mac you were not alone here. Survivalist was also on the victims list of the con. He couldn’t distinguish the difference between a professional experienced candidate and a want a be dictator conman.

        Again- “you have to admit to yourself that you were taken in by a con”

        BTW- Today’s high was 90 degrees and low this morning was 67 here at home in HB(no need for AC) and the Gym is scheduled to open September 8th. Life is good at the beach.

        Peace, keep up your good work. We’re on the same team. Our country’s democracy depends on it.

        1. How’s my little helper today?
          I haven’t heard much from you for a while.

          You still don’t GET IT.

          HRC was the most unpopular nationally prominent democrat in the entire USA well before the election campaign really started.

          You don’t run such a candidate if you have good sense. The best pitcher is supposed to start.

          If you can’t understand WHY she lost , I’m sorry .

          But one more time-She was arrogant, entitled , STUPID enough have that idiotic secret email system, you were stupid enough to defend her, for doing so, just a s trump guys and girls are now defending HIM foe doing stupid shit. The people who decided she was ethically unfit has reason to do so, given the data available to them.

          She was unable and unwilling to hide her contempt for the true core of the Democratic Party, working class people,and stupid enough to be making stupid secret speeches to wall streeters
          while simultaneously taking it for granted the working classes would bend the knee and tug the forelock and vote for her——-while trump was eating her lunch,stupid enough to alienate Sanders fans.

          She was too stupid to understand that what the country wanted above EVERYTHING ELSE was change.

          Trump is the bigeesst con man in modern history, but when it comes to understanding people at the gut level, he’s brilliant. Otherwise he’s as dumb as they come of course.

          BUT he wasn’t actually well known to the voting public. Most people don’t actually pay jackshit attention to politics, they vote their gut feelings.

          So he got away with it because she snatched a defeat from the jaws of victory. SHE HANDED IT to him on a silver platter.

          But of course a Hillary partisan is no more capable of admitting this than a trump partisan is capable of admitting trump’s a scumbag.

          You read the link and managed to ENTIRELY miss the point, like Mr Magoo, lol.

          She lost because THE VOTERS ,THE ONES SHE NEEDED , FELT FORGOTTEN AND BETRAYED.

          “I’m with her, I guess.”

          She didn’t light anybody’s fire.
          Se was an old time machine politician.The people who voted against her instinctively understood that in many cases, as did the BERNIE FANS.

          Biden comes up short in this respect too, but that’s ok, because NOW the people KNOW trump, and are HAPPY to vote for plain vanilla flavor, no hot spice needed on Biden’s part.

          He’s the right man for the mood of the country and he picked a veep that DOES light fires with the best of them.

          Having said all this, I never expected trump to be as bad as he IS.

            2. Caelan X MacIntyre=Zero

              Posting this cartoon is a fine example of your Zero political knowledge. Since before you were born the Democrats have been the party of FDR, Unions, rising the minimum wage, Social Security, Medicare, Women’s right to choose, balanced budgets and todays environmental regulations.

              Your cartoon is a Republican con since at least Reagan to deflect responsibly of their money giveaways to the wealthy. Republican are the party of wealthy and deplorables and I suspect your not wealthy.

              Trump loves the poorly educated

              https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-socialmedia-idUSKCN0VX26B

            3. “We live in an economy which takes 80% of our each new generation and educates that 80% to obey orders and to endure boredom, and stifles their creativity, and stifles their capacities, and curtails them. They’re systematically crushed by a system which does what? Which fills slots, and 80% of the slots need people who just do rote tedious repetitive labour at least at work, and therefore are acclimated to doing that…
              If you’re callous to the effects on others, you have a potential to rise. The odds are that you can ‘compete’ your way up. If you care and are socially concerned about others, you’re at a tremendous disadvantage. So I think the competitive dynamic that we have does sort of weed out a set of people for success. But I would say that what it weeds out for success is not competence, not creativity, not intelligence, but callousness far more often.” ~ Michael Albert

              “To be governed is to be watched over, inspected, spied on, directed, legislated over, regulated, docketed, indoctrinated, preached at, controlled, assessed, weighed, censored, ordered about, by men who have neither right, nor knowledge, nor virtue.” ~ Pierre-Joseph Proudhon

            5. “The most dangerous man, to any government, is the man who is able to think things out for himself… Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane and intolerable…” ~ H.L. Mencken

              “The World Bank is… devoted to state-run corporate capitalism. Established and managed by a multitude of national governments, the World Bank promotes managed trade by which politically-connected individuals and corporations enrich themselves at the expense of the poor and the middle class. Western governments tax their citizens to fund the World Bank, lend this money to corrupt third world dictators, who abscond with the funds and then demand repayment, which is extracted through taxation from the poor Third World citizens, rather than from the government officials who were responsible for the embezzlement. It is in essence a global transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich. Taxpayers around the world are forced to subsidise the lavish lifestyle of Third World dictators and highly-paid World Bank bureaucrats who don’t even have to pay income taxes. [see also; ‘WTO Why Is It BAD For You’ on You Tube]” ~ Ron Paul

              See also, here.

          2. “You Can’t Handle The Truth” is a memorable quote from the 1992 military court drama film A Few Good Men, which is often used to deny someone information that has been deemed too sensitive.

            https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/you-cant-handle-the-truth

            “Pandemic Nation: Hillary was right about the deplorables

            Trump’s deplorables are keeping America sick.

            The country could effectively put the crippling Covid-19 pandemic behind us, but Trump supporters, including Republican officials, are making that impossible by waging a cultural war against common-sense pandemic solutions, such as wearing masks to curb the virus’ spread. As most countries now enjoy post-coronavirus recoveries, Trump’s America careens deeper into the crisis. If only somebody had warned us about how dangerous his fanatic followers are.

            Hillary Clinton, of course did just that, and the press crucified her for it. In September 2016, she suggested half of Trump supporters fit into a “basket of deplorables.” The baskets included, ” “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic.”

            At the time, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found 44 percent of Trump supporters viewed blacks as ruder than whites, 46 percent viewed them as more criminal and almost 50 percent viewed them as more violent. A Public Policy poll found 61 percent of Trump supporters thought Obama was born in a foreign country, and 66 percent believed he was is a Muslim— Clinton’s comment was an accurate one.”

            https://pressrun.media/p/pandemic-nation-hillary-was-right

            1. Letter: The U.S. is really a one-party system: the Corporate Party
              Both parties depend on corporate campaign ‘bribes’ to win seats in our completely rigged ‘democracy’

              “GOP, centrist Dems in one party: the Corporate Party

              As others suggest, the U.S. is a one-party system, the Corporate Party, with two wings: extremist Republicans shredding the social safety net and gutting environmental protections, and centrist Democrats who are almost as bad. Both depend on corporate campaign ‘bribes’ to win seats in our completely rigged ‘democracy’.

              The people overwhelmingly support higher taxes on the rich, universal health care, ending wars and other sensible policies, yet these are blocked by beholden politicians. Hence, Congressional approval ratings are consistently below 20%. As long as money controls politics, conditions will continue to worsen except for the rich. If Joe Biden becomes president, he will not champion change for the common good (just as Barack Obama and Bill Clinton did not).

              People’s anger will increase and then another reactionary demagogue will likely be elected.”

              Despite the article, if money somehow can’t be used to ‘control politics’, something else will. So money is not really the fundamental problem. It goes deeper.

              See also, here.

    2. What’s the difference? Video shows college kids LOVING parts of Trump’s agenda, if told it’s Biden’s

      “A series of interviews showed that young college students seem to agree with some parts of Donald Trump’s political agenda as long as they don’t know it’s his name behind the policy proposals…

      Though Biden and Trump are often perceived to be ideological opposites, they appear to completely agree on the ideas discussed in the interviews. The Democrat says he too will end the ‘forever wars’, oppose human trafficking and terrorism.

      There is something to be said, however, about the perceived double standard, by which Biden and Trump may seem to be judged on similar ideas.

      Back in July the former vice president unveiled a much-lauded $700 billion-plus ‘Buy American’ initiative, designed to support US manufacturers. A similar campaign proposal by Trump in 2016, on the other hand, was often called overly nationalistic and was even framed as ‘racist’. “

        1. TURNING UP TRUMPS? Ft. Emin Agalarov, Singer & Entrepreneur

          Emin Agalarov: “The whole trump segment during his presidency is surrounded by so much fake news I never believed he would be impeached, I always believed he would be president…”

          Oksana Boyko: “A lot of people who have never met Trump are alienated by his public persona, but a lot of people who had a chance to spend some time with him one on one usually stressed how relatable, how human he is…”

          Emin Agalarov: “When I met him, I was very surprised positively how humble he was with everyone around him, people that he didn’t know, people that he just met, he would take a picture, he would never say no to anybody, he was always curious about everything… on a personal note, I would say that he’s one of the nicest, proper, smart and quick… successful people that I’ve met in my life…”

          Trump and Macron Bromance
          (Gotta love that jazz)

          “President Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron simply couldn’t get enough of each other ahead of the White House State Dinner.”

          1. When Emin Agalarove and Oksana Boyko are your character references… 🙂

            1. Our Own Shadows

              Oh I am fully aware of that, SW, since that’s part of my point. They’re just yet other shadows on Plato’s Cave wall (or within a The Matrix’s room, if you prefer an updated adaptation), in amongst the shadowy thoughts and conjectures that surround, permeate and incant the ‘3d/realism’ of all those shadows.

              So here I’ve just summoned some more shadows for other ‘shadowing effects’ against the flat backdrop.

              And so it goes as we discuss and deliberate over shadows against shadows within shadows, etc., like of/from the flat screens and/or interfaces (‘cave walls’) in front of which we are placed.

              (Who or what placed us here?)

              In a sense, we’ve become our own shadows.

              Pretty tragic stuff.

        2. He seems consistently opposed to good governance and democracy, though. So not quite a zero.

          1. I’m an anarchist, but am unsure good governance and anarchy are necessarily mutually exclusive, such as if I want, for example, another or others to represent me on some community decision-making matters that I don’t feel like personally engaging in, with the keyword being, ‘want’.

            Also…

            The Man They Call Zazelle July 15, 2020 at 1:06 am #

            “It is no accident that police work, for example, appeals to those (if not only those) with the bully’s instinct. We know the type. Or put a captain’s bars on a perfectly ordinary, decent man, give him measure of arbitrary power over others and he tends to become–unless a man of unusual character–a martinet, another petty despot. Power corrupts; and as Lord Acton pointed out, absolute power corrupts absolutely. The problem of democracy is the problem of power–how to keep power decentralized, equally distributed, fairly shared. Anarchism means maximum democracy: the maximum possible dispersal of political power, economic power and force–military power. An anarchist society consists of a voluntary association of self-reliant, self-supporting, autonomous communities. The anarchist community would consist (as it did in preagricultural and preindustrial times) of a voluntary association of free and independent families, self-reliant and self-supporting but bound by kinship ties and a tradition of mutual aid.” ~ ‘Theory of Anarchy’ by Edward Abbey, at ‘The Anarchist Library’

            “…over at Peak Oil Barrel (non-petroleum side) last March (03/15/2020 at 2:41 am), under my name, Caelan MacIntyre, I posted…” ~ The Man They Call Zazelle

  14. ‘Green’ energy won’t meet needs

    “The switch to renewables is not as inevitable as SAGE claims. In Alberta our electricity production accounts for only 17 per cent of our energy needs. The remaining 83 per cent includes heating, manufacturing, transportation of people and goods, services, etc. It has not been appreciated that cities provide an artificial environment for humanity; it is made possible only by the supply of massive consumption of uninterrupted electricity, gas, water, manufactured goods, food and transportation, all of which require energy. Try to imagine what a city would look like if we stopped the flow of all these forms of energy.

    It is inevitable that one day Alberta and the rest of the world will stop using fossil fuels. However, before that happens, we will have to replace all cars, trucks, ships, trains, planes, gas stations, most industrial processes, all engines, manufacturing, construction, farming and mining equipment, and all energy production processes. This unimaginable undertaking will require mining, refining, processing, manufacturing and transporting millions of tonnes of materials. The transition will require trillions of dollars in annual financing, millions of re-trained people and a significant increase in our energy consumption. The limitations of our resources will delay completion for more than a century.

    At present, our world gets 85 per cent of its energy from fossil fuels. If we drive away investors in the oilsands, where we will get the energy and the money needed for the transition here in Alberta? Irresponsible actions are leading us to collapse into energy poverty exactly at a time when we need to increase fossil-fuel production in order to decarbonize, especially while oil prices are low.

    Most of the emissions from hydrocarbons take place when we consume fuel, not when we produce it. Yet, Quebec, B.C. and the rest of Canada consume fossil fuels like drunken sailors and are concerned for our globe only when it comes to Alberta’s production.

    As J. Constable recently wrote: 'In a world of renewable energy nothing is what it seems.' 'Environmentally friendly' turns out to be devastating to the natural wold. 'Cheap' is expensive. 'Local support' is found at a distance. 'Sustainable' is strange to say, short lived and unaffordable. A 'contract' is not binding, 'secure' is actually unreliable. 'Love' is hate, 'black' is white, and 'green' is a murky shade of brown.“

    1. Solar tops 2019 additions, surpasses wind to reach 4th in global capacity at 651 GW: BNEF

      “For conventional power utilities, the momentum behind renewables will lead to a shift in plant operation profiles,” Krishnan continued, “For owners of renewable power plants, market opportunities will continue to be positive due to falling coal capacity and volatile gas prices and rising demand for power.”

      BNEF also noted a global increase in coal capacity, surging 32% over the past decade to reach 2.1 terrawatts in 2019. The 2010s saw 691 GW of coal capacity added in emerging markets and 113 GW of net coal retirements in developed countries.

      Consulting firm Frost & Sullivan also has seen a global increase in coal capacity, Krishnan said, with most of that capacity added in China, India, and the rest of Asia. Frost & Sullivan expects the addition of coal generation to continue for at least another four to five years in Asia even as coal plant utilization declines, according to Krishnan. “This is resulting in declining profit margins for coal power plant operators,” he said.

      “Coal is on its way out, but, unfortunately, not everyone realizes it,” Nathanael Greene, a senior renewable energy advocate with the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) said in an email.

      “It’s telling that the growth in new coal plants is mostly in developing countries and is funded by developed countries,” Greene continued, “Banks and governments in rich countries are pushing dirty old coal technology on poorer countries.”

      “We have seen in the U.S. and Europe, these coal plants are soon going to be white elephants,” Greene said.

      Despite all the pronouncements from certain quarters it would appear that the writing is on the wall. It is difficult to envisage much more growth in the continued extraction and burning of carbon based (fossil) fuels as opposed to extraction of materials for harnessing renewable energy. Once burned, FF are gone forever as far human beings alive today are concerned while the materials used for renewable energy are largely unaltered by the energy they harness and there is the possibility that they could be recycled when they no longer operate economically.

      1. Meanwhile,

        “Regardless of the source of energy, demand is growing. With the global population expected to increase by about two billion over the next two decades, and with improving standards of living, it is estimated the world will need about 47 million more megawatts of electricity than current consumption. Right now, fossil fuels supply about 80% of the energy we require. The remaining sources include nuclear power, biofuels, hydro, and other renewables such as solar, wind and geothermal energy.”

        BTW, China’s share of global coal generation continued to increase to 54% so far this year – up from 44% in 2015.

        https://www.capp.ca/energy/world-energy-needs/

        1. A Premonition?

          Just after commenting about the Red Queen thing as applied to some sort of (mythical/dreamed of?) ‘Transition’, I had this image of someone running faster and faster just to stay in place until, suddenly, the ground beneath them stopped and the person lurched forward and fell flat on their face. What does this mean if anything? A premonition?

          1. Maybe a better metaphor is Humpty Dumpty (planet Earth). Can/will we put Humpty together again given the short time available?

            1. Yes, Humpty Dumpty as Earth… There’s even a comic floating about the net of that.

      2. A ‘Red Queen’ Transition?

        Dynamic Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) and material requirements in scenarios of global transition to renewable energies

        “A novel methodology is developed to dynamically assess the energy and material investments required over time to achieve the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources in the electricity sector. The obtained results indicate that a fast transition achieving a 100% renewable electric system globally by 2060 consistent with the Green Growth narrative could decrease the EROI of the energy system from current ~12:1 to ~3:1 by the mid-century, stabilizing thereafter at ~5:1. These EROI levels are well below the thresholds identified in the literature required to sustain industrial complex societies. Moreover, this transition could drive a substantial re-materialization of the economy, exacerbating risk availability in the future for some minerals. Hence, the results obtained put into question the consistence and viability of the Green Growth narrative…

        …as the penetration increases and displaces conventional dispatchable fuel sources, the energetic costs associated with the required overcapacities, overgrids and storage substantially reduce the EROI of the whole system due to energy requirements for both construction and operation of the modified energy system.

        The results obtained in this work indicate that achieving high penetration levels of renewables in the electric system by 2060 consistent with the Green Growth narrative would decrease the EROI standard (EROIst) of the entire global system from current ~12:1 to between ~3 and 5:1 by the mid-century. These EROI levels are well below the thresholds identified in the literature required to sustain high levels of development in current industrial complex societies… This would translate into a substantial energy overdemand reaching a peak of 35% during the transition for the case of 100% RES; i.e. the production of energy would need to increase by 35% in order to supply the same level of net energy to society during the transition to RES. The increase in energy investments would imply a higher primary energy consumption which in turn would intensify the issues of environmental impacts and resource depletion… In relation to material investments, the obtained results show that RES deployment would require a substantial amount of minerals relative to the current estimated levels of reserves and resources, driving in fact a substantial re-materialization of the economy which would exacerbate eventual mineral risk availability in the future. In particular, estimated cumulated extraction demand would surpass the current level of reserves in GG-100% for tellurium, indium, tin, silver and gallium. As a corollary the results obtained put into question the consistence and viability of the Green Growth narrative… This work also contributes to the novel research field focusing on the biophysical implications of the large upscaling of modern renewables..”

    1. There are times when the foothills of the Smokey Mountains are the most glorious place on the earth.
      Likewise the foothills of the Hindu Kush or the Sierra Nevada.
      Well, this is not the day to proclaim the virtues of California.
      Today 98% of the states population is projected to fall under an excessive heat warning.
      And much of the state is smokey as heck, and has been for a week or two.
      Anyone with a care about their long term health is sheltering in place, in the extensive affected areas.
      We use an aqi (2.5 u particulate ppm) reading of 70 as a cutoff, and less than 50 for routine activities.
      Fortunately there are hundreds of monitoring stations in our region to give real time data-
      https://www.purpleair.com/map?opt=1/mAQI/a10/cC0#1/10.1/-30

      The hot winds from the continental interior are projected to be picking up over the next two days.
      Its the kind of scenario that has many people thinking quietly about migration.

      diy air filtration-
      https://healthybuildingscience.com/2018/11/18/diy-box-fan-merv-13-versus-hepa-air-purifier/
      https://tombuildsstuff.blogspot.com/2013/06/better-box-fan-air-purifier.html

      1. Living in an area vulnerable to wildfires, I can only sympathize with California’s plight.

        AS CALIFORNIA BURNS, THE WINDS ARRIVE AND THE LIGHTS GO OUT

        “California is heading into what traditionally is the teeth of the wildfire season, and already it has set a record with more than 8,000 square kilometres burned this year. The previous record was set just two years ago and included the deadliest wildfire in state history — the Camp Fire that swept through the community of Paradise and killed 85 people.”

        https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/california-wildfire-power-1.5715331

    1. Transition Mecca Pilgrimage

      Patience, my Doug!
      Islandboy, Nick g and their many followers and believers will continue to burn more fossil fuels for us that continue to heat the planet for our pilgrimage to Transition Mecca, via non-renewable renewable energy-harvesting technology.

      Wallah, God be willing!

  17. Why so eager to be fascist?
    “The Republican Party has become a popular movement, a “radical insurgency.” This can be seen in their mass rallies for Trump and in their primaries where they punish any politician who is a little bit independent of the Trumpian agenda. “Trump’s electoral support came mainly from the intermediate strata of the population, that is, from the lower middle class and privileged sections of the working class….Nationally Trump won the white vote and the male vote by decisive margins….” (Foster 2017; 20-1) Despite their past (relative) privileges, these had often lost incomes or jobs in the last decades. They are overwhelmingly evangelical Christian. Some are rabid racists, while many are not but neither are they turned off by Trump’s racism. They are nativists, hating and fearing brown-skinned or non-Christian foreigners. Aside from a hard core of neo-Nazis, they do not think of themselves as “fascists.” Overall, they are about 40 percent of the population—a minority, but a big and motivated minority.”

    They stoke the hatred white supremacy, while in reality the only ones who get supremacy are conservative ultra wealthy, the loyalist media, and the insider fan club who are offered scraps of the carnage to placate them.
    Any dignity, any due respect and any sense of patriotism to a democratic nation has been squandered.
    Sold to rotten brat charlatan they call leader.
    So eager to kiss his feet, and ignore his lies.
    And yet in their heart, they know they couldn’t trust him in a room alone with their wife or girls for even a few minutes.
    And still they will vote for him, and fascism.
    Shameful.

  19. COOPERATE ON CLIMATE OR ‘WE WILL BE DOOMED’: UN CHIEF

    “I think the failure that was shown in the capacity to contain the spread of the virus — by the fact that there was not enough international coordination in the way the virus was fought — that failure must make countries understand that they need to change course. They need to act together in relation to the climate threat that is a much bigger threat than the threat of the pandemic in itself — it’s an existential threat for our planet and for our lives.”

    Meanwhile, the man who knows better, US President Donald Trump shocked the world when he said the United States — history’s largest emitter — was withdrawing from the Paris deal. It is due to leave on November 4, just after the country’s presidential election.

    https://phys.org/news/2020-09-cooperate-climate-doomed-chief.html

    1. Nor is Japan helping matters,

      “Japan is the only G7 country still building coal-fired power plants, both in Japan and overseas. According to Mission 2020, Japanese public finance is behind 24.7 GW of coal power in other countries. That is larger than Australia’s entire coal fleet.”

      And, Pia Eberhardt, a researcher at Corporate Europe Observatory, told CHN Japan’s opposition means “it’s very unlikely that we will see any of the changes which we would need to see to make this agreement [Energy Charter Treaty] compatible with climate action”.

      https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/09/08/japan-blocks-green-reform-major-energy-investment-treaty/

  20. Federal policy, whether it is on Covid or Energy, can have a big effect.

    Take S Korea- they have announced policies that will increase electric vehicles 10 fold over the next 5 years, and more-
    “South Korean President Moon Jae-in announced virtually, at the first International Day of Clean Air for Blue Skies, that in a $17 billion investment, the country will boost the number of electric cars from the current 110,000 to 1.13 million by 2025, and increase the number of hydrogen vehicles from 8,000 to 200,000.

    Seoul’s environment ministry said it will achieve this massive green-car growth with government subsidies. The country also intends to add 45,000 charging stations by the same date. Moon’s administration says this will create 151,000 jobs.

    Moon also announced more good news: South Korea will more than triple the number of solar and wind power facilities by 2025 compared with last year. Further, the country will shut down 30 more coal power plants by 2034. Or specifically, it will close 10 coal power plants by the end of 2022 and another 20 by 2034. Moon’s administration has not allowed any new coal power plant construction.

    Moon’s Green New Deal initiative overall projects that it will create 660,000 jobs. The initiative will cost $61.43 billion (73 trillion won) through 2025. By the end of 2020, Korea will set new emissions reduction goals for 2030 and present a net zero road map to 2050. South Korea is the first country in East Asia to pledge to reach net zero by 2050.”

    https://electrek.co/2020/09/08/south-korea-to-boost-ev-numbers-to-1-13-million-by-2025/

    Meanwhile, they have a huge problem being dependent on imported fossil fuels. Their domestic energy supply is heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports- like Japan, over 80%.

    1. they have a huge problem being dependent on imported fossil fuels.

      You’ve emphasized this before, and I agree. They can justify a transition from FF just on cost savings on imports, and increased energy security. Reducing GHG pollution is a bonus.

    1. Joshua Tree is a gem.
      Being a SoCal native, it was part of the environment.
      Too close to 20 million people. Sorry to hear of its continuing demise.
      It is a rock climbing mecca– something I have not excelled at.

  22. Interesting paper calculating the Covid fallout from the Sturgis Super Spreader rally in South Dakota:

    http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

    We are further able to document national spread due to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, although that spread also appears to have been successfully mitigated by states with strict infection mitigation policies. In counties with the largest relative inflow to the event, the per 1,000 case rate increased by 10.7 percent after 24 days following the onset of Sturgis Pre-Rally Events. Multiplying the percent case increases for the high, moderate-high and moderate inflow by each county’s respective pre-rally cumulative COVID-19 cases and aggregating,
    yields a total of 263,708 additional cases in these locations due to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally.
    Adding the number of new cases due to the Rally in South Dakota estimated by synthetic control (3.6 per 1,000 population, scaled by the South Dakota population of approximately 858,000) brings the total number of cases to 266,796 or 19 percent of 1.4 million new cases of COVID-19 in the United States between August 2nd 2020 and September 2nd 2020.

    1. Bob, the legacy mainstream crony-capitalist plutarchy media hysterics aside, as well as those who’ve caught that like a bad virus, it looks like COVID-19 will be with us for some time, maybe forever like what we get every cold season.
      Lockdowns, social distancing, masks, hand sanitizers, escaping to Mars and related appear sufficiently past their best before dates in many areas and look increasingly like excuses for social control, given the economic situation that easily post-dates the virus, and what can come from it, like proverbial pitchforks and guillotines in short order for ‘TPTB’.

      It looks like The Virus is past its peak and that influenza has taken the lead.
      Excess mortality? Well, at the very least, maybe if some of us drive less, exercise more, eat better and/or get a more effective healthcare system together, we can effectively overcompensate for that, yes?, since I’m unsure forcing people to jump through certain authoritarian nation-state coronavirus measures hoops is going to cut it, except maybe for those authoritarians and their medical mouthpieces who think so.

      Let’s wait for a more serious pandemic, shall we? Maybe TPTB will, accidentally of course, release yet another, more serious one, and my words here will ring prophetic.

  24. This is explosive:

    Belarusian President Lukashenko Says IMF Offered A Billion USD Bribe to Impose Covid-19 Lockdown

    “Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko said last month via Belarusian Telegraph Agency, BelTA., that World Bank and IMF offered him a bribe of $940 million USD in the form of ‘Covid Relief Aid’. In exchange for $940 million USD, the World Bank and IMF demanded that the President of Belarus:

    • imposed ‘extreme lockdown on his people’
    • force them to wear face masks
    • impose very strict curfews
    • impose a police state
    • crash the economy

    Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko refused the offer and stated that he could not accept such an offer and would put his people above the needs of the IMF and World Bank. This fact can be verified using most search engines.

    Now IMF and World Bank are bailing out failing airlines with billions of dollars, and in exchange, they are forcing airline CEOs to implement very strict policies such as forced face mask covers on everyone, including small children, whose health will suffer as a result of these policies.

    And if it is true for Belarus, then it is true for the rest of the world. The IMF and World Bank want to crash every major economy with the intent of buying over every nation’s infrastructure at cents on the dollar.”

      1. Probably not even a conspiracy theory, just brain-dead spin on the IMF offering support when the country is in crisis.

        1. There’s a lot to be said and has been said about the IMF and World Bank, but perhaps you two think they and the system they work with are just peachy.

          Just 3 hits from a cursory search:

          IMF & World Bank are weapons of war , by John Pilger

          Why are loans bad for the poor?

          How do the WTO, World Bank and IMF work?

          “Susan George explains what the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) are and how they work. They operate in the interests of rich nations at the expense of the poor.”

      2. Viral Opportunism & Live Exercises
        (May 16)

        “We don’t have to necessarily have conspiracies to have opportunities that many different governments around the world can leverage/benefit from in many different ways.

        Opportunism can go viral too and it can be very contageous.

        – Extinction Rebellion protests
        – Yellow Vest protests/riots
        – Underfunded pensions
        – Greta Thunburg
        – Canadian railway blockade
        – Climate Change (IPCC says we’ve got ~11 years to ‘brake’ economy)
        – Hong Kong protests/riots
        – China’s economic issues
        – Syria/Yemen/Venezuela (Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Soleimani…)
        – Fracking’s Denoument/Unprofitability
        – Business/Government activity/competition for decreasing FF sources
        – KSA’s oil resource question and recent internal politcal shakeup
        – MAGA and reverse outsourcing
        – Resilience and Relocalization
        …

        What Did U.S. Intel Really Know About the ‘Chinese’ Virus?

        “The bottom line is explosive: the Trump administration as well as the CDC had an advance warning of no less than four months – from November to March – to be properly prepared for Covid-19 hitting the U.S. And they did nothing. The whole ‘China is a witch!’ case is debunked.

        Moreover, the Israeli disclosure supports what’s nothing less than extraordinary: U.S. intel already knew about Sars-Cov-2 roughly one month before the first confirmed cases detected by doctors in a Wuhan hospital. Talk about divine intervention.

        That could only have happened if U.S. intel knew, for sure, about a previous chain of events that would necessarily lead to the ‘mysterious outbreak’ in Wuhan. And not only that: they knew exactly where to look. Not in Inner Mongolia, not in Beijing, not in Guangdong province.

        It’s never enough to repeat the question in full: how could U.S. intel have known about a contagion one month before Chinese doctors detected an unknown virus?

        Mike ‘We Lie, We Cheat, We Steal’ Pompeo may have given away the game when he said, on the record, that Covid-19 was a ‘live exercise‘. Adding to the ABC News and Israeli reports, the only possible, logical conclusion is that the Pentagon – and the CIA – knew ahead of time a pandemic would be inevitable.”

  26. Jack Rickard (EVTV) died a few days ago. Fred Magyar was a big fan, I think. Where are you Fred?

    1. I used to buy up all Jacks CALB LFP – Lithium Iron Phosphate prisms, the best Battery in the world …. from the IP the Chicoms / Waxon snaged from A123 US gov funded cell tech. I expect decades of life from these prisms running critical infrastructure. 80% of such Batteries are made in China. This Amazing eChem has ZERO neurotoxins ie. heavy metals.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A123_Systems
      https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Cycle-2000-times-lithium-ion-prismatic_1600095874145.html?spm=a2700.7724857.normalList.225.db6a792bZfQvi2

      Jack started Boardwatch magazine. The guide to Dial-up Bulletin boards pre Internet. He will be missed. Now more than ever it’s critical to keep healthy weight in that optimum band. Want to live long and prosper? Listen to: https://thefatemperor.com/

      1. No——- she was ARROGANT, and conceited enough to think she would get away with some stupid stuff.

        I use the word stupid as it applies to every day common sense. She has a high IQ.

        In any case, my point remains the same.

        You should never nominate a candidate that’s entirely unpalatable to roughly half the voting public.
        The Democrats avoided this mistake this time, thank Sky Daddy.

        And the Republicans would sell their virgin daughters to be rid of trump– if only they could figure out a way to do so without digging the hole they’re in even deeper.

        1. While having never voted for a repug or dim (well, one dim in a local election, and one repug in Maui for the hell of it), Hillary was a bad choice by the dims.
          Sanders, IMHO, would of walked away with the election.
          But the mainstream dims would rather have Trump than Sanders.

        2. Your intitled to your opinion but not the facts. HRC had 3 million more votes than Bernie. You and others like you are just not a team players because your guy lost. You had a choice and failed. The only arrogant person in this conversation is you and your country is worse off for it today. Your kind of actions mattered and there are almost 190,000 Americans dead needlessly.

          You can’t handle the truth

          1. We both lived in California–
            Our vote had no effect- Hilary won by 3 million votes in the State.
            About what she won over in the popular vote nationally.

            As stated, reformist politics is not my thing, but I do vote occasionally.
            Living in California and Hawaii has even made that more of an existential exercise.
            I’ve only been back in the States a few years.
            The US has a backward political process, originally supporting slavery and denying women the right to vote.
            Even winning the vote, Hillary lost.
            A parliamentary system is fair and quick.

        3. No——- she was ARROGANT, and conceited enough to think she would get away with some stupid stuff.

          Sure you’re not talking about Trump?
          A man indebted to the Russian mob, a probable Russian asset, and man whose Tax Returns are so radioactive they can’t be disclosed?

          Who thinks he’s smarter than everybody about everything?

          You should never nominate a candidate that’s entirely unpalatable to roughly half the voting public.

          And yet more than half preferred Clinton.

          Please, Mac.
          Your justifications are just as hollow as they were 4 years ago.

    2. Yes, Paulo, thank you for your drive-thru comment with little to no back-and-forth.
      See you maybe in a couple of months or so.

      Talking about these sorts of figureheads in the current context is like talking about, say, a cracked windshield on a totalled car.

      See also here.

      Snip from Clusterfuck Nation:

      acutance April 8, 2019 at 10:19 am #

      “…marijuana has been legal in California for several years now.”

      Actually, just since January 1 of 2018.

      Aren’t there more people than jobs for them to do? Isn’t that one of the the big issues going forward?

      K-Dog April 8, 2019 at 10:22 am #

      Getting a medical card was no big deal. Been that way for years.

      Paulo April 8, 2019 at 10:30 am #

      Are you kidding? In Canada it takes 9 years post secondary and a brutal residency. Plus, there are a limited number of university spaces open. I wouldn’t want to do it.

      Matt Holbert April 8, 2019 at 11:21 am #

      I might be mistaken, but I think that K-Dog was referring to a California medical card to purchase marijuana…

      K-Dog April 8, 2019 at 10:31 pm #

      Yes

      LOL

  28. The crisis unfolds — unprecedented and heartbreaking!

    WILDLIFE IN ‘CATASTROPHIC DECLINE’ DUE TO HUMAN DESTRUCTION

    “Wildlife populations have fallen by more than two-thirds in less than 50 years, according to a major report by the conservation group WWF. The report says this “catastrophic decline” shows no sign of slowing. And it warns that nature is being destroyed by humans at a rate never seen before. Wildlife is “in freefall” as we burn forests, over-fish our seas and destroy wild areas. We are wrecking our world — the one place we call home — risking our health, security and survival here on Earth. Now nature is sending us a desperate SOS and time is running out.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54091048

    1. Meanwhile, with news focused on Westcoast fires it’s easy to forget Siberia.

      “Abnormally warm temperatures have spawned an intense fire season in eastern Siberia this summer. Satellite data show that fires have been more abundant, more widespread, and produced more carbon emissions than recent seasons. Fires in Arctic Russia released more carbon dioxide (CO2) in June and July 2020 alone than in any complete fire season since 2003 (when data collection began).

      https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/147083/another-intense-summer-of-fires-in-siberia

    2. Wildlife is “in freefall” as we rape to feed unsustainable Cities. In an antfarm at least the workers work to get the grub.

        1. The trump era Works progress Administration won,t be about roads and parks.

          It will be about sweeping the forests.

  29. You can travel through Arizona and Nevada, parts of New Mexico and see mountains that are barren devoid of forests because of arid conditions. The climate in parts of the West, in portions of California, Oregon and Colorado has shifted due to change in airflow patterns. They have dried out. The forests are retreating. Forests don’t get up and move. First they dry out. Then they burn down. Then they are gone. We did this. Particularly over the past twenty years when it might have been reversed. I don’t think it can now. That change in the flow patterns looks like the new normal. The dry out is in full swing. The forests are retreating. The burning will continue until the new boundaries are set.

    1. SE — Words don’t describe destruction we are inflicting on our little blue dot, and all the creatures who live here.

      OREGON WILDFIRES: HALF A MILLION PEOPLE FLEE DOZENS OF INFERNOS

      “We have never seen this amount of uncontained fire across the state… This will not be a one-time event. Unfortunately, it is the bellwether of the future. We’re feeling the acute impacts of climate change.”

      https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54113416

    2. The change in the airflow patterns that is drying out the west has already happened. We are living with the consequences now. We can’t “put out the fires” They are going to burn until the fuel is gone.

      Similarly we have already created the conditions that have set the rising sea levels to work that are going to destroy Florida as we know it. That won’t stop until the peninsula is cut in half. We aren’t going to stop that either. Its already baked in. Shame about this. Somebody should have warned us.

      1. “Somebody should have warned us.” Indeed!

        WHY ARE BRAZIL’S WETLANDS ENGULFED IN FLAMES?

        The Pantanal, the world’s biggest tropical wetlands, is burning at record-shattering pace this year as drought-fueled fires devastate its vegetation and celebrated wildlife in an environmental catastrophe. The region, which sits at the southern edge of the Amazon rainforest, is known for its immense biodiversity, drawing wildlife lovers from around the world with its jaguars, jabiru storks, giant otters, caimans, toucans, macaws and monkeys. But in recent months, the images emerging from the region have been of charred animals’ corpses and flames stretching clear across the horizon. There have been 12,567 fires in the Brazilian Pantanal in 2020, setting a new annual record for the number of fires less than nine months into the year.

        “The worst part is when the people on the ground fighting the fires tell us, ‘There’s nothing we can do, everything is going to burn.’ The only hope is for it to rain, but that’s not expected until November.”

        https://phys.org/news/2020-09-brazil-wetlands-engulfed-flames.html

  30. Apocalyta.
    Its been fire and smoke here on the west coast.
    We have solar on the roof and normally make about 38000 Wh per day in early Sept. This is what we made on the last clear day here 6 days ago.
    On Wednesday it barely made it past the light level of a very early winter dawn, and the color was copper.
    On that day we made 290 fold less electricity- 131 Wh.
    Very thankful to have had battery backup and the grid.
    The photo posted is the view out the front window on Wednesday at 10 am.

    1. We just had the solar panels cleaned off 1 month ago. Now everything is covered with thick grey ash. This doesnt just rinse off. You have to put some elbow grease into it.
      The ash in the last couple days is from a fire in Butte county 110 miles away.

      1. Hickory —

        Try to look after your lungs. We had bad wildfire smoke here two years in a row and my doctor told me it was causing/caused endless health problems — to both two and four legged critters alike. I’ve suffered a shortness of breath ever since and my son-in-law (young and healthy) has to use a puffer on ocassion now.

            1. Cane

              Wow, break out the covid masks, it’s party-time with AugJohnson out of nowhere from The Oil Drum daze(?); solar panels that hardly work in the middle of the day and must be cleaned with some added effort; shades of Sweet Home in Hell on Earth; some kind of funny-sounding PurpleAir website; and a dark copper ambiance over everything, including a car. Pretty trippy stuff. And I haven’t yet had my morning tea and it’s late afternoon here on the East Coast. Can’t wait for the hurricanes…

              Purple Haze

              augjohnson on July 4, 2013 – 9:08pm

              “You can bet I’ll be looking forward to what you come up with. I know you understand what’s been good about the conversations that have taken place on TOD. I wish I had more time to actually assist but I’m busy now getting new garden established, greenhouse built, fruit trees established, PV system re-installed, etc., after a move cross country from Alabama to Northern CA. I keep hoping that I’ll eventually find some time to take a drive and meet Todd.”

          2. First day in Bend with heavy smoke.
            Have the filter running.
            Stepping outside, the smoke was overwhelming.

            1. Third day of HB looking like a bad day in LA during the 60’s

              ****

              Trump to busy watching FoxNews yesterday to take a call from the Oregon Governor

              *****
              “Exasperated California Gov. Rips Climate Deniers As West Coast Burns

              “This is a climate damn emergency,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said as massive, deadly wildfires blazed across the state.

              “The debate is over on climate change,” Newsom added. “Just come to the state of California.”

              Wildfires have burned through a record 3.15 million acres across the state — representing an over 2,000% increase in acreage burned compared to this time last year. In the past three weeks, fires across Northern California have killed at least 19 people, burned over 3,900 homes and other structures, and forced tens of thousands of residents to flee their homes. And fire season is just getting started.”

              https://www.huffpost.com/entry/california-governor-climate-change-fires_n_5f5bddd1c5b62874bc1cea53

  31. I post this on the non-oil thread in the name of trying to not rub folks the wrong way over there.
    This is as much for you Ron, as anyone else.

    Statement-
    Fracking has provided oil and gas supply that has given a decade of grace to a world economy that was woefully unprepared for peak oil. In this past decade the scenario has changed.
    If anything humanity is more dependent on fossil fuel than before, simply because of economic and population growth.
    Nonetheless, the tools are now in place that allows a significant chunk of humanity to exist without as liquid fuel. The tools-
    1] evolution of outstanding electric vehicles ranging from cargo cycles to cargo delivery vans, with options exploding on the marketplace
    2] renewable electricity solar and wind now available in widespread portions of the earth at very inexpensive price
    3] adequate battery density and price, which is slowly improving

    Now the limitation to transition is policy and scale, not technology or price.
    Liquid fuel and ICE engines can be replaced at mass scale this decade.
    Perhaps at a rate that matches or exceeds the rate of liquid fuel depletion.
    The transition includes a wide range of plug-in hybrid vehicles.
    This was not true in 2010.
    But the scenario is different now.
    Peak oil is here, but so is electric transport.

    End of statement.

    1. Hickory —

      I think you are going to have to expand your commendable target(s) beyond solar panels and EVs. Here’s one example:

      “Currently, about 50% of the globe’s vegetated land is dedicated to agriculture — and about 30% of cropland is used to grow grain for animal feed. Given how much land it takes to grow food to feed livestock, meat production is a leading cause of deforestation.”

      And, “If current trends continue, but agricultural productivity does not increase beyond 2010 levels, most of the globe’s remaining forests would need to be cleared to feed the world.”

      BTW Our local “cattle baron” immediately buys up every acre of land that comes up for sale — because, his market for beef is insatiable (his words).

      https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/08/748416223/to-slow-global-warming-u-n-warns-agriculture-must-change#:~:text=Right now, agriculture generates an,as clearing vegetation and plowing.

      1. Doug,

        Lots of land without vegetation could be used for solar (buildings, parking lots, etc), and 50% of “non-vegetated land” is still quite a bit of land. Wind power can coexist with farming, so not really an issue there and offshore wind, though expensive, is also possible. Better energy efficiency should also be a major part of any solution to the transition away from fossil fuel, as should better education which tends to reduce fertility rates (children per woman over their child bearing years) and thus would reduce the rate of population growth to less than zero (this might occur between 2060 and 2080).

        Fairly sure nobody is arguing the wind and solar, by themselves, will “save the world” as you and others claim (though this has been said repeatedly, but you will continue to proclaim as much). Just a measure that will replace some fossil fuel use gradually over time, many other measures such as improved energy efficiency can also reduce fossil fuel use. As fossil fuel output peaks (possibly around 2030 for all types added together) prices will likely rise and might lead to greater energy efficiency focus and higher rates of installation of wind and solar as they become cheaper than competing fossil fuel.

        Very little storage is needed with a widely dispersed network of wind and solar that is highly interconnected by the grid, probably less than 2% of total load hours, backup by batteries, vehicle to grid, synthetic fuels produced with excess wind and solar output, and perhaps a bit of natural gas during the transition to a nearly 100% non-fossil fuel energy system (probably not reached until after 2080).

    2. 1] evolution of outstanding electric vehicles ranging from cargo cycles to cargo delivery vans, with options exploding on the marketplace

      I see cargo delivery vans around here every day. UPS, FedEx, USPS, etc. etc. I haven’t spotted one electric one so far.
      2] renewable electricity solar and wind now available in widespread portions of the earth at very inexpensive price

      True, but their current capacity is totally inadequate to power the entire grid without fossil fuel power plants to assist them, especially when the sun is not shining or the wind is not blowing.

      3] adequate battery density and price, which is slowly improving

      Now here I will give you an argument. They are nowhere close to adequate battery density. No, no, no, not even close. Slowly improving? Damn slow I must say. I, for one, just don’t believe it will happen. If there were any confidence in that happening then they wouldn’t be talking about hydrogen storage.
      (Note: I am not talking about battery-powered transportation here but battery grid storage.)

      Hey, hydrogen storage is discussed in the short YouTube link VFatalis posted above. That doesn’t look too promising either.

      1. That wasn’t very much pushback Ron.
        Regarding the batteries, they are good enough to be useful in vehicles today. Improvement is needed, but even today they are good enough to get 300 miles from an hour of charging (about $6 electricity).

        1. Today isn’t tomorrow, next year, or next decade. Change happens. Novel forms of pollution happen.

          Shit happens. I like shit where it belongs. The biosphere likes shit where it belongs.
          What we don’t like are scaled and increasing novel forms of industrial pollutants and ecosystemic disruptions from, say, paradigm shifts in energy production/consumption and naked ape-shit approaches to it.

          Remember, buildout has to include everyone and the rest of the biosphere, not just those who might want to steal others’ opportunities and/or resources for their own, to hell with anyone or anything else. That happens a lot more than folks like you might think.

          So everyone has to include ~8 billion. Does the planet have enough resources and can it handle the scale and increasing and novel dust and debris, irrespective of whether they are stolen from somewhere else and from some of those ~8 billion or not?

          I have my doubts.

        2. I’ve gotten mail by electric cargo bike for years. About half the UPS trucks around here are EVs as well. That’s about it though.

          When I was in France last year I saw baguettes (bread) being delivered in a pedestrian zone using a trailer on one of the fat wheeled Coco scooters.

          Small utility vehicles like trash collectors are often electric in Europe as well. I’ve seen a lot in Holland.

          Electric bike deliveries have been common in NYC for years, despite being bizarrely illegal.

          https://nyc.streetsblog.org/2020/06/25/city-council-passes-e-bike-legislation-but-more-work-remains-advocates-say/

          1. Electric-
            Nikola got order for 2500 garbage trucks (Republic)
            Amazon has ordered 100,000 delivery vans from Rivian
            UPS had ordered 10,000 delivery vans from Arrival

            Its early days for the transition to electric transport.
            End of the 2nd inning in a long overtime game.
            Those who are getting on board will very happy when next round of oil price spikes comes to town. 2-3 years I suspect.

          2. Electric bikes and short haul vehicles have adapted well to electric.

            However, battery technology has been stuck on lithium ion, first commercialized by the Japanese in the early 1990’s.

            It has been a while.

    1. This is usual bullshit sort of thing posted by engineers who know their own work but nothing else, lol.

      Such people are blind to problems such as depletion, balance of trade, national security, etc, and they always assume that nothing new will ever be seen under the sun. Twenty years ago they sais wind and solar power would never work because they cost too much.

      They don’t consider load shifting, or improving energy efficiency, etc. They don’t consider the possibilities involving long term transmission, or getting some work done ahead of time when the wind is blowing and the sun is bright.

      The author is about as close minded as farmers in 192o who insisted that horses and mules would always be better than tractors, lol, when some of their own relatives and neighbors were already buying tractors.

      This one says shadows mean the land used for wind and solar production is useless for agriculture or other purposes. BULLSHIT!

      1. YouTube videos are a danger sign.

        Sad that a nice tool is being used so much for propaganda.

          1. Well, Mac made some arguments. It didn’t look to me like the video was worth the time to discover his arguments. You can waste a vast amount of time listening to flaky videos (which is most of them – if material is really high quality, it’s worth writing down in an article or book).

            OTOH, if you think his arguments might be valuable, and would like to take the time to summarize them, then we’d have a starting point for a discussion.

            1. It didn’t look to me like the video was worth the time to discover his arguments.

              Ahhhh yes, you already know the truth so you do not need to look at any evidence or listen to arguments to the contrary. I have been a student of human belief systems for over half a century. You are not in the minority Nick. At least 90% of the human population hold similar opinions about their cherished beliefs.

              OTOH, if you think his arguments might be valuable, and would like to take the time to summarize them, then we’d have a starting point for a discussion.

              Nick, the video is less than seven minutes long. And you want me to summarize his arguments because you think they cannot be worth seven minutes of your time? I think not.

            3. Oh my. Alright, against my better judgement I’ll address some of it. And, really it should be against your better judgement: there’s nothing new here. So, here’s a critique of roughly the first 45 seconds: that’s all my stomach can take:

              Because of the political choice to reduce the co2 emissions of the Netherlands, so called green technologies are currently widely used.

              A clear signal that this guy is a climate change denier. “Political choice” and “so called green tech” – seriously?

              But what about the main other intended energy sources wind and solar energy, I want to be brief about solar energy, the amount of space it takes is such that it can never be used on a large scale.

              No evidence provided, which makes sense because it’s nonsensical. Rooftops alone (residential, industrial & commercial) provide enough space, let alone the relatively modest amounts of farmland that would be needed to power the US or the Netherlands.

              Also, with solar panels, the ground is completely filled, so you can’t do anything else with it.

              Not true, as we’ve seen recently: it’s perfectly possible to do some forms of farming around PV, let alone the fact that you can put houses and factories under it!

              The rest is just as bad – completely unrealistic. If there’s somethings else specific you’d like addressed, please highlight it.

            4. Thank you Nick. I didn’t expect Ron’s reply.
              He’s just ranting with reason, of course.
              But he already knew why the video is bullshit, lol.
              Ron is sort of cranky, like me, but he’s very well informed.

              I will add for the record that even if we were to cover a thousand square miles of critical wildlife habitat with wind turbines and solar panels, the overall environmental impact would be trivial compared to the environmental harm caused by mining coal by mountain top removal near my own home.

            5. OFM, both of us know that Ron does not rant WITHOUT a reason .
              He is ahead of the curve on sustainability issues than I would say most members . I am in agreement with him and smile when I read what Nick, you and some others write saying about how electric cars ,wind ,solar etc are going to save our butt . Now my turn to rant . All renewable ,EV’s etc are not self sustainable and most important absolutely uneconomical . The coming financial and economic collapse will expose for what they are ,false prophets . The expose has started . The first industry is shale , it is over . Schlumberger fired 21000 in its fracking division and the other big boy Halliburton’s share price will be heading to zero . The expose of the EV industry has started by Hindenburg who have equated Nikola to the Theranos scam . Shares falling head over heels . The next EV company to go will be Rivian ( yes the one that got an order of 100000 vans from Amazon) . All pure EV manufacturers will crash soon thereafter and that includes Tesla . The crash of the EV industry will be followed by the expose of the renewable industry . This is not going to happen overnight ,after all shale started in 2008 and it is only now that it is being shutdown . The way the financial and economic collapse is shaping up my guess is we have up to 2025-2030 before the wheels of our current living arrangement fall off . Musk ,Seba etc can lecture all they want but they cannot overrule the laws of physics and mathematics . Enjoy the good times while they last . All be well
              P.S : I already said ” Now my turn to rant” 🙂 .

            6. Tragic Ad Nauseum Obstinacy

              “…even if we were to cover a thousand square miles of critical wildlife habitat with wind turbines and solar panels, the overall environmental impact would be trivial compared to the environmental harm caused by mining coal by mountain top removal…” ~ OFM

              That’s a false dichotomy logical fallacy, repeated ad nauseum, if it’s part of an argument for industrial wind and solar, since no one arguing against that– certainly not me or a few other regulars at least– is arguing for mining for coal or fossil fuels.

              If fact, repeating this fallacy over and over despite being corrected over and over just underscores a deliberate, dangerous and tragic obstinacy and/or ignorance for many members of our species in general.

            7. Nick and Mac, no, the storage part of the video was definitely not bullshit. In fact, it hit the nail on the head. Storage, that is grid storage, is the elephant in the room that the “renewables will save the world” crowd doesn’t want to talk about.

              I don’t blame Nick for only watching the first 45 minutes of the video. His ideology prohibits him from really considering strong evidence against his world view.

            8. Ron,

              Can you put the storage argument in your own words? We’ve had this discussion several times, and not made any progress. Good lord, I’ve dealt with storage, in detail with lots of numbers and references, a whole bunch of times. There’s really nothing at all new here. Now you’re reduced to making silly arguments that I’m not willing to listen to stuff that doesn’t confirm my prejudices.

              So, you’re not going to be convinced until you can “own” the ideas involved. You need to understand the ideas on a personal level, not just watch somebody else’s presentation and say “that sounds good”. That starts with putting it into your own words and numbers. Why aren’t batteries good enough,specifically? Why aren’t other solutions like “wind-gas” good enough, specifically? Tell us your questions and arguments, and then we can give you an answer that will actually make sense to you and stick with you.

            9. More People, Worse Planet: Much Less Wiggle-Room

              Actually, Nick claimed to have watched only 45 seconds of the mere ~7-minute video.

              In any event, the multitude of problems in general with industrial output at scale and numbers and specifically of non-renewable renewable energy harvesting technologies on a planet of near 8 billion who often ‘want what you have’ (and are deceptively sold to) go way beyond mere 7-minute videos.

              We are not talking about a population as it was when the oil age began and on a planet as pristine but that’s what many advocating non-renewable renewable energy also seem to chronically forget, as if it’s deliberate. And it probably often is.

              Deliberate actions of nefarious sorts despite knowing better can often lead to war, by the way.

              See also, here.

          2. Maybe that’s because doing so would go against their religion.

    2. V Fatal-
      Here is what the data says about wind energy in Iowa.
      42% of the annual electricity consumption now is provided by wind energy.

      These arn’t windmills. No grinding of grain. These are wind turbines.

      And just think. With enough of these, Iowa would no longer need much oil for its transport needs. And they would be driving around with less expenditure for ‘fuel’.

      1. It’s Also What Isn’t Mentioned

        “Iowa is the only non-crude oil-producing state among the top 5 energy-consuming states on a per capita basis, due to Iowa’s relatively small population along with its energy-intensive manufacturing and agricultural sectors.
        In 2018, Iowa was the fourth-largest consumer of hydrocarbon gas liquids, mostly propane–which is used for drying the state’s large harvested corn crop and for heating one in eight Iowa households.” ~ EIA

        To the readership:
        It is important to consider also; how electricity compares to the overall energy mix that largely includes fossil fuel (usually still around 80% or more); what the percentage of some alternative electricity-generating scheme is within the percentage of electricity generation (a percentage of a percentage); how electricity is generated (by burning fossil fuels for example) and how a particular region (Iowa?) might leverage fossil fuel, such as as imputs into agriculture to generate ethanol (competition for our food; threatening soil viability/vitality for industrial/dubious ends?); as inputs to manufacture, maintain and dispose of wind(/sun)-to-electricity generation, or as backup generation (oh, look, natural gas) to those kinds of systems, such as when they don’t work effectively and/or are damaged, etc..

    3. “Nothing is greener than freshly laundered public funds.”

      Some noteworthy comments under VFatalis’ video link…

      Klimaatwaarheid
      2 days ago
      No wonder you could not find a Dutch plan: in The Netherlands is the focus (and money) for our energy transition almost 100% on wind, solar and biomass with the last one now discredited because people recognise that it is in no way CO2 neutral. Nuclear is kept of the table and natural gas to be banned. So I wanted to make clear that wind and solar are no option for a 100% CO2-less future. Because solar on our latitude has virtualy no output in the three wintermonth, I focussed my video on windmills, just as example, with hydrogen storage as backup plan (with courtesy of mr. Frans Timmermans).

      seeWemm
      3 hours ago
      Meeting the UK’s National Grid’s FES 2020 Scenario (Consumer Transformation) means 83 GW of offshore wind operational by 2050. But if it’s started now, the first wind farms built will have to be decommissioned by 2045 and replaced by new wind farms.

      This will have to happen from 2050 onward, every year – Forever & Ever & Ever! By 2075, all 83 GW will have been decommissioned and 1,000,000 tonnes of GRP wind turbine blades will be heading for landfill sites. That’s 2,000,000 by the end of this century, then 4,000,000 tonnes every century thereafter.

      By the end of this century, a map showing the build-out of offshore wind ringing the entire UK coastline, demonstrates just how much seabed will be occupied year after year – Until the end of Time.

      Free green energy my bottom!

      cnoivl
      2 days ago
      Beautifully put… yet, while a lot of us know the Emperor wears no clothes, there are many who just don’t… think it through….

      operator
      4 days ago
      at the same time- total energy needs for the world are increasing at 2% per year.

      GEORGELET4
      4 days ago
      It’s such a Shameful Scam
      California, that great mecca of “going green” couldn’t even keep the power on for everyone when it warmed up as it is prone to do in August. Instead of helping third world countries have the benefits of life as we in the West do, their policies are to make us be more like the third world countries. How stupid!

      Pink Panther
      4 days ago
      Excellent video exposing the dangerous and delusional claims made by the environmental zealots. All politicians should be forced to watch this and pass an exam on it to stay in power. Big numbers but simple maths. Even politicians could be helped to understand it!

      Ken Towe
      4 days ago
      And of course none of that can take any CO2 already emitted out of the atmosphere. Another technology, CCS, is required and it will need energy as well, not only to capture CO2 but transport it and geologically store under pressure.

      Rajesh Taylor
      3 days ago
      At what point, exactly, will people realise this the green agenda is the biggest scam going? And running amidst flu season that has shut down western civilisation until 4th November 2020.

      T5rux Lee
      2 days ago (edited)
      The cart before the horse courtesy of greedy rent seekers with tight ties to “big spending green politicians”. It is also “interesting” how so many of these systems seem to win tenders across international borders for no apparent reason. The most vital need for such systems was the perfection of safe, highly efficient, super battery energy storage. These are still nowhere in sight, so such windmills can still require expensive backup natural gas powered generating facilities to stabilize and smooth out their erratic “product”.

      Rick O’Shea
      1 day ago
      Nothing is greener than freshly laundered public funds.

    4. Friction Heating With Wind

      “For those who regularly participated on The Oil Drum, they may recall, under Kris DeDecker’s excellent article, The Mechanical Transmission of Power: Endless Rope Drives, one of my comments/inquiries [2013], as ‘Tribe Of Pangaea- First Member’, regarding using a windmill to heat a place without electricity.

      Well, I was pleased to find that Kris has recently added (or reposted) an article about that very subject:”

      Heat your House with a Mechanical Windmill

      “Renewable energy production is almost entirely aimed at the generation of electricity. However, we use more energy in the form of heat, which solar panels and wind turbines can produce only indirectly and relatively inefficiently…

      Much less known is that a mechanical windmill can do the same in a windy climate — by oversizing its brake system, a windmill can generate lots of direct heat through friction. A mechanical windmill can also be coupled to a mechanical heat pump, which can be cheaper than using a gas boiler or an electric heat pump driven by a wind turbine...

      Solar thermal energy can be used for water heating, space heating or industrial processes, and this is 2-3 times as energy efficient compared to following the indirect path involving electricity conversion.

      Almost nobody knows that a windmill can produce heat directly.

      “

    5. OFM is right about the video.

      I got thirty seconds in when he claimed “Also, with solar panels, the ground is completely filled so you can’t do anything else with it.”

      This is dim-witted and not worth countering. He continues from there with a claim about having to store energy for months if solar is the only source of energy, which nobody is proposing.

      Then a few seconds later he goes on to assume that EVs consume as much energy as ICEVs, which is patently false.

      The bottom line, however is this: Wind and solar are so cheap that they are going to put their competitors out of business. It’s already happening. So this kind of bellyaching needs to be replaced by to lateral thinking.

  33. Small scale wind power is apparently getting to be a practical possibility , so long as you consider wind turbines rated into hundreds of Kilowatts as small scale.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/11/us-showers-tiny-wind-turbines-with-big-love/

    Construction of small home owner sized turbine towers towers one at a time will never be cheap enough, in my opinion at least,to justify home scale wind except in a few places with really good wind and little in the way of other options except running a generator.

    1. I have family in ranching country in the panhandle of OK. The wind there drives me nuts. There is always, always a 15 to 20 mph wind from the south southwest. All of the sparce trees grow permanently bent in prayer towards the northeast. In the 30’s the thing that made cattle ranching possible there was the large scale adoption of the air motor for windmills pumping water on each section of land. Now, anyone who doesn’t put a small windmill up to generate electricity to augment their solar arrays is crazy. When you walk out the door and have to use one hand to hold onto your hat and the other to make sure the door doesn’t blow away at least you can tell yourself that you are generating some power.

      1. I’ve read about the wind in that part of the country many times.
        Unfortunately for the home scale wind industry, not many people live there, so small turbines won’t sell there by the millions.

        The average capacity factor of wind farms there is about forty percent or a little higher for new construction.Here’s a question I would love to see answered.

        How much generation, roughly, is lost because the wind is TOO strong in such locations?

  34. With the fire devistation currently ongoing in California, Oregon and Washington (plus the Amazon) it’s easy to ignore the Arctic.

    ARCTIC FIRES EMIT RECORD CO2

    “Wildfires that incinerated tundra along the Arctic Circle this summer released a record 244 megatonnes of carbon dioxide — 35% more than last year, which was also a record breaker. Scientists think the fires are so bad in part because they’re torching peatlands, which have accumulated carbon over many millennia, making them the most carbon-dense ecosystem on Earth. The fires are part of a vicious cycle: their emissions fuel global heating, leading to ever-worse fires, which release yet more carbon. Recent research shows that northern peatlands could eventually shift from being a net sink for carbon to a net source of carbon — and, say scientists, the transformation is already under way.”

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02568-y?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=44f6a8b6bc-briefing-dy-20200911&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-44f6a8b6bc-45646834

    1. “With the fire devistation currently ongoing in California, Oregon and Washington”
      There won’t be much help and virtually no leadership coming from Washington ……….
      Because the West doesn’t vote for trump.

  35. And yet the video didn’t really covered 2 major caveats of windmills (and renewables)

    They require huge amount of materials per kwh generated, and we’re quite low on some of these resources (neodynium, copper, silver for PV…). A 5 MW windmills requires 1700 tons of materials

    Also without storage they are next to useless, so you have to take that into account for your EROI calculations.. Needless to say it’s insufficient to reach the treshold required to sustain our fancy lifestyle

    Yes renewables can work… With a considerable reduction in population and use.

    Nick G I knew you wouldn’t even watch the video, you prefer the “green” propaganda sold by Musk, Rifkin and Seba… That’s ok. We are not in a Star Trek episode though… Get prepared for some disenchantment

      1. If your contention is that fossil fuels don’t work, then let’s, a la precautionary principle, not maintain or ramp up the burning of them to build out dubious non-renewable renewable energy-harvesting technology while keeping the economy burning hot enough to support this and related activity.
        In effect, when we call for non-renewable renewable energy-harvesting technology, we are also calling for a continued and even increasing burn. But we only have one planet, and it’s already burning quite badly.

    2. “Also without storage they are next to useless, so you have to take that into account for your EROI calculations.”

      Bullshit squared.

      My old Buick pays it’s way on a regular basis because it runs on a little less than half as much gasoline as my truck.

      All the materials in wind turbines can be recycled , if they are really valuable.

      Wind generated juice has done us all a big favor by forcing down the price of coal and natural gas, both of which are critical inputs in other industries we all depend on.

        1. I don’t think Denmark has any landfills do they? Not many anyway.

          Here’s a quote from your article:

          “We can process 99.9% of a blade and handle about 6,000 to 7,000 blades a year per plant,” said Chief Executive Officer Don Lilly. The company has accumulated an inventory of about one year’s worth of blades ready to be chopped up and recycled as demand increases, he said. “When we start to sell to more builders, we can take in a lot more of them. We’re just gearing up.”

          Here’s another quote:

          Wind turbine blades at the end of their operational life are landfill-safe, unlike the waste from some other energy sources, and represent a small fraction of overall U.S. municipal solid waste

          So I’m not sure it really fits your thesis very well.

    3. Exactly! Fossil fuels are not working. The world is being destroyed with fossil fuels. The world will be destroyed even faster without fossil fuels because more forests would be destroyed for fuel. Anyone who cannot see what is happening to the world is either stone-cold blind or just don’t really want to see the truth.

      All the world’s fauna, large enough to eat, is being killed off. And it will be killed off even faster when the collapse begins. When people get hungry they will eat he songbirds out of the trees.

      2. While we bicker about windmills (OK renewables) and EVs saving the world:

        WORLD MISSES 2020 BIODIVERSITY GOALS

        “Over the last decade, governments have failed to meet ANY of the internationally agreed 2020 goals to halt plant and wildlife loss. Biodiversity is not yet being brought into mainstream decision-making, harmful subsidies have not been removed on a meaningful scale and biodiversity continues to decline in places used to produce food and timber. [Furthermore] Last year, a major scientific report by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services warned SPECIES EXTINCTION WAS ACCELERATING, WITH ECOSYSTEMS DETERIORATING AT RATES UNPRECEDENTED IN HUMAN HISTORY.”

        “It is not too late to reverse the trend if conservation efforts are scaled up and protected areas expanded. However, it will require “a reinvention of the ways in which we collectively produce, consume and live””.

        Caps are mine.

        https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/09/08/world-misses-2020-biodiversity-goals-leaked-un-draft-report/

    1. Morning Doug,
      I’ve come to the conclusion that this state of affairs- severe smoke season intruding on our summer and fall- is a permanent and growing element of living on the west coast from BC on down.
      We have had it hard for 4 of the last 5 years. And we are not even in a drought period (yet).
      There is an incredible amount of fuel sitting out in the open (from chaparral to doug fir and everything in between), and will be indefinitely.
      The region is slowly drying. Even if rainfall does not decline, the evaporation/evapotranspiration (from plants) is increased in a warming climate, with increased flammability being the result.
      We are among the quiet millions who now start to think of migration.

  37. Speaking of saving the planet. Well, maybe next year then!

    AMAZON DEFORESTATION SOARS AS PANDEMIC HOBBLES ENFORCEMENT

    “Now, the coronavirus has accelerated that destruction. Illegal loggers, miners and land grabbers have cleared vast areas of the Amazon with impunity in recent months as law enforcement efforts were hobbled by the pandemic. … Already last year, deforestation in the Amazon had reached levels not seen since 2008.”

    “At the same time, the coronavirus has killed more than 34,000 people in Brazil, which now is recording the highest daily number of deaths in the world. It has also fueled political polarization and dominated headlines and policy debates in recent months.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/world/americas/amazon-deforestation-brazil.html#:~:text=Now, the coronavirus has accelerated,were hobbled by the pandemic.&text=Already last year, deforestation in,levels not seen since 2008.

  38. “While we bicker about windmills and EVs saving the world”

    I’d like to clarify a point here- I do not claim that renewable will be ‘saving the world’.
    But I do claim that they can make the transition to the downside* much less abrupt and catastrophic than the other pathway- the other pathway being humanity just watching fossil fuels deplete while sitting on our hands.
    Look out to the next decade-The regions, and portions of society, that go hard on deploying renewables this decade , will have economic resiliency that will be challenged mightily in places that are reliant solely on buying oil. Oil will be well beyond peak supply by 2030, while the worlds population will reach 8.5 Billion energy consumers. Thats 10% more than today.
    Compare a place like California, Iowa, and Washington, where over 50% of the electricity in 2030 will be non-fossil, to places who still rely on oil for transport. Cost of business and cost to a family will be much higher in places that have failed to push hard on the transition.
    Thats how I see it.

    * transition to the downside-
    Its inevitable- global population will peak sometime in the next 80 years, and begin to decline. Each of the three fossil fuels will have peaked within 20 years, oil probably already. Better to be proactive to adapt to the coming shortage of fossil fuel , rather than having the shortage of the energy be the mechanism of forcing downsizing. Same goes for food production. Poverty, and war, is a hell of way to go down. Maybe its already baked in the cake. More likely for some than others.

    1. Don’t read much about the biodiversity crisis in that comment — i.e. the rapid loss of species and the rapid degradation of ecosystems — which is probably a greater threat than global climate change to the stability and prosperous future of humankind on Earth. Oh well, best to keep it simple I suppose. 😉

      1. True, and good point Doug.
        To save the environment, the biggest thing is human population.
        Only deliberate population control can hasten the time of peak population.
        I am not one to voice hope of saving the world (environment).
        This steamroller is growing larger every day, with orange nit-wits at the wheel.

        1. It’s our lifestyle that needs controlling not necessarily our population.

    1. Hubris is charging ahead with arrogance, and without acknowledging
      -the shortcomings of your path (dependence of civilization on fossil energy which is on the verge of global peak and decline) and
      -the destruction in your wake. Extinction level destruction for huge swaths of the planet.

  40. Nick’s Shtick

    We’ve had this discussion several times, and not made any progress. ~ Nick (C. 2020)

    Nick on July 6, 2013 – 1:27am
    Now, here I think I see an example of the kind of difficulty that stalled progress on TOD. Discussions don't seem to progress to conclusions. We have the same discussions over and over. We don't seem to communicate.

    So, let me try again – what did you think of what I said about food, metal and primary energy consumption leveling off?

    Rethin on July 6, 2013 – 7:08am
    Nick,
    Who cares that it has leveled off? Its at an astronomical level in the west. What the problem is now the rest of the world aspires to even a fraction of the level. That is overshoot.

    Nick on July 6, 2013 – 5:35pm
    Who cares that it has leveled off?
    Well, Paul (“gliderguider”) cares, cause he’s trying to test an hypothesis.
    I agree that CO2 emissions are way, way too high, and that the rest of the world following that example would be a disaster.

    That’s why “we” need to push wind and solar ASAP.

    Rethin on July 6, 2013 – 6:38pm
    I can’t argue for GG.
    But I’ll state that all growth eventually hits limits.

    You may be entirety correct that growth in resource usage has leveled off in the west. And GG is entirely correct that resource usage for the world is still growing.

    You are cherry picking a data point for whatever reasons you want. And you continue to ignore the point I just made that even if the west has plateaued in resource usage, its still well into overshoot. And the rest of the world aspiring to even a fraction of that lifestyle will push us even farther into overshoot. (I didn’t say anything about co2)

    I stopped commenting on TOD because of too many who think if they win an argument on the internet then they can change the world.

    Nick on July 6, 2013 – 6:46pm
    ‘all growth eventually hits limits’

    I agree – at least for goods (as opposed to services).

    ‘You are cherry picking a data point for whatever reasons you want.’

    See my discussion of hypothesis testing.

    ‘the rest of the world aspiring to even a fraction of that lifestyle will push us even farther into overshoot. (I didn’t say anything about co2)’

    Well, CO2 is the main problem. Extinctions are big as well, of course, but that’s an unclear risk, while CO2 is very clear.

    ‘who think if they win an argument on the internet then they can change the world.’

    I don’t care about winning an argument – why should anyone care about debating points? It’s a matter of education, and building consensus around social change. And, of course, it’s interesting to learn new things, when people bring them…

    Rethin on July 6, 2013 – 8:30pm
    ‘I don’t care about winning an argument – why should anyone care about debating points? It’s a matter of education, and building consensus around social change. And, of course, it’s interesting to learn new things, when people bring them…’

    In other words winning an argument on the internet changes the world.

    If only you can educate enough people on an internet forum then the GM Volt will magically become a success…

    It got old.

    Nick on July 7, 2013 – 6:57pm
    So, you’re arguing on the Internet that….arguing on the Internet is not a good idea.

    Sigh.

    Well, whatcha doing out in the ‘real word’? Seriously, I agree that ultimately that’s essential, so I think we’d all like to hear some inspiring thinking in that direction.

    Rethin on July 7, 2013 – 7:27pm
    I never said arguing on the internet is a bad idea. Heck I do it all the time, its fun (most of the time).

    What I find tiresome are people who think they can change the world by winning an argument. Largely because people like that don’t argue from good faith, they have an agenda. You come across as a guy who can never concede a point as you are too afraid of disheartening any readers.

    As to what I do in the real world? Who cares?

    Nick on July 8, 2013 – 1:35am
    Actually, it makes my day when someone responds to what I say with something new (and realistic). Makes things a lot more interesting. That doesn’t happen nearly often enough lately.

    Rethin on July 8, 2013 – 2:46pm
    No doubt.

    You'd think that after 7 years your arguments would have won more of us over…

    Nick on July 8, 2013 – 6:15pm
    Actually, I think it was helpful for a very large number of people, the vast majority of whom didn’t write comments. Those who weren’t won over were those who argued, thus presenting a “teachable moment” for yet more lurkers.

    Many people just left TOD, when they saw it wasn’t progressing in a realistic way, leaving the pessimists.

    augjohnson on July 8, 2013 – 6:53pm
    So, over those years, YOU are the total judge of what’s “realistic”? God, you have a huge ego!

    Nick on July 8, 2013 – 8:47pm
    hhmm. I thought “In my opinion” was always understood.

    Clearly, you disagree…

    Yes, in my opinion, TOD was unable to progress to a realistic exploration of the transition away from oil – it became stuck in quantitative analysis of oil and other FFs, because it’s editors could not come to a consensus what would come after. It was stuck between unrealistic pessimists, and more realistic people who saw a sensible transition away from FF/oil.

    I’d say that the idea that the transition away from oil/FF is necessarily bad is like the idea that quitting smoking is bad for you.

    In my opinion.

    Rethin on July 8, 2013 – 10:51pm

    Nick,

    You just illustrated why I always thought you were one of the most doomerish guys on the forum. If what you argued was the most sensible and realistic transition away from oil then we are so screwed.

    Nick on July 9, 2013 – 5:15pm
    Well, you’ll have to explain that.

    Again, Germany is justifiedly proud of it’s very competent and hard-headed engineers. They’ve concluded that renewables are very practical.

    Rethin on July 9, 2013 – 5:34pm

    Oh sure, very practical. Just head on over to Egypt and let them know all they have to do is build up some wind and match that with EVs charging at night. Problem solved.

    So very practical.

    Nick on July 9, 2013 – 7:11pm

    It’s extremely practical.

    Egypt has good wind and solar resources. Electric bikes and cars would be extremely practical in Cairo.

    E-bikes outsell anything else in China.

    Rethin on July 9, 2013 – 7:24pm

    You’d better get over there and tell them!

    Nick on July 9, 2013 – 7:48pm

    Well, you buy the tickets, I’ll reserve the hotel rooms. Bring your earplugs, cuz Cairo’s incredibly noisy. And, bring your riot gear, cuz they’re gettin’ busy!

    Rethin on July 9, 2013 – 8:14pm
    Alas, poor Egypt didn’t have blogger Nick to tell them the most practical and realistic ways to transition away from oil.

    But for the want of a blogger…

    Good thing we have you Nick! The english speaking world has been saved. Nick the blogger has educated us all via TOD!

    Oh wait, nevermind. You are full of crap.

    You see I’m quite sure there were quite a few bloggers in Egypt pointing out their reliance on oil exports and subsidized food imports. I’m sure they were crying out about EVs and Wind and how well they matched loads at night.

    But then the real world still happened.

    Nick, No doubt you soothed a few souls who wanted to be convinced. Whatever good that does. The US isn’t Egypt and our fate is not theirs. But neither is ours Wind and EVs.

    If you are the best we got, We are so screwed.

    Nick on July 9, 2013 – 9:21pm
    Wow.

    “Keyboards dipped in vitriol” is a pretty good description.

    For what it’s worth: Egypt has listened to creative thoughts about energy, and was in the middle of the process of moving away from across-the-board energy & food subsidies when the military took over.

    On the other hand, energy is very far from the only reason for the fate of nations, and it certainly doesn’t give anything like a complete explanation for why Egypt is going through it’s current convulsions.

    Rethin on July 9, 2013 – 9:41pm

    .

    Tribe Of Pangaea- First Member on July 9, 2013 – 8:44pm

    I’ve actually been to China and many of the electric bikes’ batteries have worn out after a short while. Like all my laptops’.

    Nick on July 9, 2013 – 9:28pm
    I’ve heard that Chinese E-bikes very often have lead-acid batteries, which have to be treated very carefully. Similarly, laptop batteries typically don’t have temperature control or charge-management, so they overheat, run hot, and get over and under charged.

    There’s an old saying in the industry: “Batteries don’t die, they’re murdered.”

    But, if you’re at all careful they’re still cheaper than gas, they’re legal in the big (very polluted) Chinese cities (gas increasingly isn’t).

    And, in car-type EVs you have temp and charge management.

    Tribe Of Pangaea- First Member on July 9, 2013 – 9:56pm
    We’ve been down this road before, Nick…

    The promises of better futures on this path with and for such things as batteries, nuclear fusion or whatever, as JH Kunstler puts it, techo-narcissism, have you, are effectively handwavings for rosier futures that will likely never come.

    Perhaps, paradoxically, this is because the disorienting, distancing, damaging effects of our technologies place us “there”. Place us where we only realize later, or somewhere else, and often too late, how they inevitably affect our reality.

    We very much appear psychically out-of-synch with time and space… Déjà vu and technological boomerangs we’ve forgotten we’ve thrown on the road to and geography of…

    nowhere.

    Nick on July 10, 2013 – 1:06am
    Wow, we have been down this path before. And yet, we’ve made no progress. The problem of TOD writ small.

    I’m not really getting this mystical vision. Of course, Kunstler knows very little about energy or technology, and when challenged about that, he describes himself as a entertainer.

    I’ve no problem with the idea that we’ve spent too much time on the first couple of rungs of Maslow’s hierarchy. But, sheesh, it’s a long way from that to some kind of vague anti-tech nihilism.

    1. Hickory —

      Very interesting!

      From your link: “Wind and solar energy were responsible for a mere 1.7% of energy consumption. Compared to fossil fuels like oil and coal, this percentage seems even more minuscule than it does on its own—mainly attributable to the high costs traditionally associated with wind and solar energy.” So much talk about renewables, so little to show for it!

      1. Funny how people never realize that two thirds of the fossil energy just goes to waste as useless heat.

        Same goes for nuclear, that’s why nuclear provides 4.6% of the worlds energy production while wind and solar combined only 1.7% when actually wind and solar combined produce only 20% less electricity than nuclear (2,586 TWh vs. 2,154 TWh in 2019). (1)

        Want another example?
        My 22 year old compact car requires at least 70 kWh to drive 100km.
        Even a power guzzling Tesla Model X can easily be driven at a third of that.

        (1)
        At current growth rates it will take about 2.5 years for wind and solar to provide more electricity combined than nuclear.

      2. ” So much talk about renewables, so little to show for it!”

        I ask, when fossil fuels are peaking (and global warming is revving up), what should we talking about?
        Sure, using fossil fuel more efficiently and learning to live with less energy are paramount issues.
        When it comes to hydro- sites are limited without doing yet more damage to watersheds and ecosystems.
        Nuclear energy is a ripe area for debate and exploration.
        But going forward in the next decades- it is largely about wind and solar when it comes to offsetting depleting and carbon emitting fossil fuels.
        So, the focus is appropriate, in fact should be escalated dramatically thinks I.

        Those country charts show very clearly how different policy choices and geography so dramatically affect the energy supply and makeup for various countries.
        To add another layer of import vs domestic energy would be eye-opening as well.
        How much imported carbon based energy/capita?
        How much domestic non-carbon energy/capita?

      3. Doug,

        According to BP data renewables (including hydro) plus nuclear accounted for about 15.7% of all World energy consumption in 2019. The share in 2018 was 15.1%.

        Also total World energy consumption increased by 7.67 EJ from 2018 to 2019, the increase in fossil fuel use was only 45% of this with renewables (not including nuclear) also accounting for 45% of the increased energy consumption.

        In 2019 5% of consumption was from non-hydro renewable output, in 2018 it was 4.5%.

  42. Crisis, what crisis?

    RESEARCH REVEALS ‘CLIMATE-CHANGE COMPLACENCY’ ACROSS EUROPE

    Only 5% described themselves as “extremely worried” about change. The climate and the environment ranked only fifth in people’s overall views about priorities. There was also skepticism that co-ordinated action, for example to cut personal energy use, would make much difference. “It seems there is a chance the current generation will be content to sell their great grandchildren down the river.”

    Adam Nowakowski commented: “We should not conclude that Europe does not care at all about climate change. However, our analysis of the data does suggest that European citizens are not ready for policies which would have strongly negative consequences on their day-to-day lives—not least because we have found a low level of confidence in the usefulness of joint action.”

    https://phys.org/news/2020-09-reveals-climate-change-complacency-europe.html

    1. Interesting that this paper notes that concern over climate change skews to younger and more educated. I’ve seen protests about climate inaction where the crowd seemed to be predominantly young people, so that’s one positive in a sea of negatives.

Comments are closed.