STEO
The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early December. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.
Tag: STEO
STEO and Tight Oil Update, August 2023
The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early August. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.
The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was revised higher in August compared to July. World C+C output is expected to decrease in the second and third quarters of 2023 and then increase over the next 5 quarters. Annual average World C+C output increases by about 1000 kb/d in 2023 to 81743 kb/d and then to 82967 kb/d in 2024, less than 50 kb/d below the centered 12 month average peak in 2018. This month’s World C+C estimates are about 300 kb/d higher than last month for 2023 and 400 kb/d higher for 2024 due to the revisions in the STEO forecast this month.
Read MoreEIA Short Term Energy Outlook, Tight Oil Report, and IEA Oil Market Outlook, May 2023
The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early May. The report that follows compares World Petroleum Liquids output from the STEO with estimates from OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) from May and the IEA’s Oil Market Report (OMR) from February 2023 with an update on World liquids output based on the summary of the May report with my estimate on quarterly output in 2023 based on the annual estimate for 2023 published in May 2023 and the quarterly numbers published in February 2023.
EIA Short Term Energy Outlook and Annual Energy Outlook 2023
The EIA updated the Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) in March and also released the 2023 version of the Annual Energy Outlook in March. This post will take a brief look at both of these reports with a focus on Crude plus Condensate (C+C) Output for the World, OPEC and Non-OPEC in the case of the STEO through the fourth quarter of 2024 and US C+C output for three oil price cases from 2022 to 2050, reference (medium oil price), high and low oil price cases.
Short Term Energy Outlook, February 2023
The Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on February 7, 2023. For most nations except the US and total OPEC crude oil output the forecast for future production is for total liquids only. In this month’s post I will try to estimate the crude plus condensate (C+C) output indicated by the STEO total liquids estimate for the top 10 non-OPEC producers and the World minus the top 10 non-OPEC producers. I will focus on quarterly output so that we can compare with recent OPEC estimates for World supply and demand in 2023. The estimate for C+C uses historical output of both C+C and total liquids and uses the average of the ratio of C+C to total liquids for the past 12 quarters (2019Q4 to 2022Q3) for the top 10 non-OPEC producers (except the US where a C+C forecast is provided) and for the World minus the top 10 non-OPEC producers. In most of the charts that follow the units on the vertical axis are kb/d of C+C output.
