The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for November 2023 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is October 2023 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In many of the OPEC charts that follow the blue line with markers is monthly output and the thin red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.
The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early November. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.
The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was revised lower in November compared to September (we skipped the October STEO). World C+C output is expected to decrease in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2023 and then increase over the next 5 quarters. Annual average World C+C output increases by about 1028 kb/d Mb/d in 2023 to 81804 kb/d and then to 82555 kb/d in 2024, about 445 kb/d below the centered 12 month average peak in 2018. This month’s World C+C estimates are about 400 kb/d lower than September’s estimate for 2023 and 1150 kb/d lower for 2024 due to the revisions in the STEO forecast since Sept 2023.
Read MoreThe EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early September. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.
The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for September 2023 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is August 2023 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In many of the OPEC charts that follow the blue line with markers is monthly output and the thin red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.
The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early July. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.
This month we have actual EIA data for 2023Q1 which increases the annual rate of increase for the forecast period compared to last month by 600 kb/d, part of the reason is an 800 kb/d forecasted drop in output from Q1 to Q2 of 2023. If we use the 2023Q1 to 2024Q4 trend the annual rate of increase is 911 kb/d, about a 100 kb/d increase from last month’s estimate. The trend from 2022Q1 to 2024Q4 is similar at about 916 kb/d. If this forecast through 2024Q4 is roughly correct, I expect increases in output after 2024 will be considerably lower, I also think this STEO forecast is optimistic. Annual average output in 2022 was 80.74 Mb/d and increases to 81.4 Mb/d in 2023 and to 82.6 Mb/d in 2024. These annual averages are 0.25 Mb/d less in 2023 and similar for 2024 as last month’s estimates.
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