Oil Price Outlook December 2017

A Guest Post by David Archibald

The views expressed in this post are those of the author alone.

This assessment is based on the data in the 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy available here. As such it uses that review’s definition of oil which is crude and condensate and natural gas liquids, uncompensated for their different energy contents or values of refined product components.

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Figure 1: World Oil Production 1990 – 2017
This analysis was prompted by a chart by Ovi showing that Non-OPEC production less Russia, Canada and the United States has been in decline since 2004. That decline rate is 0.25 million barrels/day/annum. It had previously risen strongly from 1990. Read More

Texas Update- June 2017

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Dean Fantazzini has provided me with updates to Texas Oil and Natural Gas estimates, the data shifted about a year ago so I use the most recent 13 months of Texas RRC data along with the “all vintage” data estimate which uses all data from Jan 2014 to April 2017 for oil and April 2014 to April 2017 for condensate. The most recent EIA estimate is shown for comparison. In April 2017 the EIA estimate is 3345 kb/d, the 13 month corrected estimate is 3443 kb/d, and the all vintage estimate is 3572 kb/d. Read More

Texas Update, May 2017

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The Chart above compares several different combinations of past (vintage) data to estimate output. The dotted line is based on the most recent 8 months (August 2016 to March 2017) of data saved from the RRC website, the blue solid line is based on the past 12 months of data, and the yellow line is based on the most recent 3 months of data. Read More

Oil Price Volatility and US EIA Data

A number of news media pieces have recently suggested that oil prices may fall due to soaring output in the US.  Output from US light tight oil (LTO) may not rise as quickly as some EIA reports may suggest. One source of confusion is that the EIA creates many reports and some are more reliable than others. The two charts below cover US LTO and US crude plus condensate (C+C) output.

US LTO Output from the EIA Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) and EIA Tight Oil (LTO) estimates in kb/d.

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US EIA monthly C+C output and centered 4 week average output in kb/d.

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