The US Energy Information Administration publishes Tight Oil Production Estimates by Play each month (can be found at link above.) I noticed this month that the estimates seemed different than I remembered so I checked earlier estimates I had saved on my computer. The chart below compares estimates from Dec 2018 to April 2019 (where the last month of data in the estimate is Dec 2018, Feb 2019, March 2019, and April 2019).
Most of the data below is taken from from the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. The data through February, 2019 is the EIA’s best estimate of past production and all data from March 2019 through December 2020 is the EIA’s best estimate of future production. However in most cases February production is highly speculative so I drew the “projection” line between January and February.
Understand the above chart is Total Liquids, not C+C as I usually post. As you can see the EIA expects world petroleum liquids to keep climbing ever upwards.
This is the EIA’s data for OPEC all liquids with Production data from April 2019 through December 2020.
by Dennis Coyne
I have updated my scenarios for US LTO output, based on both EIA tight oil output data and average well profile data from Enno Peters’ shaleprofile.com. I have also created a scenario for the Niobrara shale oil play and for “other US LTO” which excludes the Permian Basin LTO, Eagle Ford, North Dakota Bakken/Three Forks, and the Niobrara.
This is NOT a non-petroleum open thread, see post below for those comments.
Comments on oil and natural gas output should be in this thread, thank you.
The EIA released the latest edition of their Electric Power Monthly on February 27th, with data for December 2017. The table above shows the percentage contribution of the main fuel sources to two decimal places for the last two months and the full year 2017 (YTD). Read More
