The Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Most of the oil information was covered in an earlier post. Oil price forecast below.
Natural gas prices
Coal price
Natural Gas production is expected to be significantly higher than consumption, the difference will be net exports of natural gas.
GDP Price deflator is a measure of inflation, 2022 was 7%, 2023 is 3.8, 2024 is 2.6%.
World liquid fuel consumption
OECD vs non-OECD liquids consumption
World Real GDP, 2020=-3%, 2021=6.5%, 2022=3.3%, 2023=2.15%, 2024=3.1%
Real GDP growth OECD vs Non-OECD
Non-OECD, 2022=3.6%, 2023=3.3%, 2024=4.5%, OECD, 2022=3%, 2023=0.6%, 2024=1.3%
OECD Commercial Petroleum crude and products inventory
Electricity sales to ultimate consumer
Wind and solar at about 7% of total US energy consumption by 2024, growing at an annual rate of 13.8% from 2018 to 2024.
The Laundromat: How the price cap coalition whitewashes Russian oil in third countries
The largest importer of Russian crude oil and largest exporter of oil products from China is
Dalian, which receives Russian crude oil directly through a pipeline. The largest recipient of
Dalian’s exports is Australia, but most other destinations are outside of the price cap
coalition, which is why the port doesn’t rank among the top five above. The majority of the
crude oil processed by the Dalian refinery appears to be Russian, with only a few imported
shipments of domestically produced crude oil. The pipeline transport means that the
crude oil is completely outside of the reach of the price cap mechanism.
https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/the-laundromat-how-the-price-cap-coalition-whitewashes-russian-oil-in-third-countries/
Australian example:
13/4/2023
Australian jet fuel imports from China surge in 4 months to January 2023
http://crudeoilpeak.info/australian-jet-fuel-imports-from-china-surge-in-4-months-to-january-2023
The U.S. has no meaningful “allies” in the world anymore, save Canada; nobody with any military might that would come to our defense in a time of need. That is a lie propagated by those who make money from oil and natural gas exports from the U.S., as is that we are aiding important “trade partners” in Europe and throughout the rest of world with oil and LNG exports…unless that means Heineken from the Netherlands and cheap underwear from Korea.
Globalization in the World oil order is dead. It is now China, Iran, the KSA, OPEC, and Russia against Midland County, Texas and Lea County, New Mexico, where gassy oil wells are turning into oily gas wells and where 80% of all Permian tight oil production is exported, simply to get rid of the shit.
America is speeding to a red light. While in route what we worry about is NCAA basketball, transgender athletes, the end of Yellowstone, where Tucker Carlson will land and ‘woke’ bullshit that means nothing in the grand scheme of things. NOTHING!
God hep us all.
https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/u-s-oil-policy-in-twelve-images
Not sure I agree with the point about allies. If anything, the events of the last two years (Ukraine and Chinese aggression) have solidified US dominance. From the Philippines to India to Europe (via NATO), the US has reasserted itself. Biden has boosted this trend by reengaging with allies. Still, the point about using oil and ng exports as a national security strategy is a concern. Energy drives world politics to a large extent. We can use our resources to gain favor, but at a cost. Consider that the UK under Thatcher allowed North Sea oil to be sold without limit at what were historically low prices ushering in a period of economic growth. Now UK faces energy shortages and economic decline. Short term profits rule.
However, I totally agree about the general lack of awareness of the dire situation that lies ahead (unless, of course, you believe renewables will usher in an age of green abundant energy). But in my view, the far bigger issue than energy is climate change. The long-term impacts of that will dwarf all other issues. But slow speed train wrecks are boring and not nearly as interesting as the latest Tik Tok post.
I agree with Mike S.
However, The UK and Australia have followed the USA into every significant military conflict ( Vietnam, Iraq, Ukraine, WWII etc)
And America helped the British in the Falkland Islands (which was about oil and sovereignty)
and helped to repel the Japanese out of Australia and Indonesia in WWII (which was about Japan trying to acquire fossil fuels).
You don’t learn about that if you are in an American History class.
Australia and USA = 40% of the world’s coal reserves.
And coal liquification is a proven technology (ask Hitler and South Africa).
In desperate times, don’t forget that equation.
America and UK just gave Australia access to their nuclear arsenal
And Hypersonic missiles that can take out Chinese fuel tankers if they try to project military force launched from continental Australia.
AUKUS treaty
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzBvfEprs50
Australians have started training on USA and UK nuclear submarines.
Australia – Proximity to China and vast hydrocarbon resources are no secret.
For Australia, it is either the USA or UK or CHINESE LABOR camps. That is no choice at all!!!!
Watch that video! it is from 1 month ago…and it showing you where things are heading!!!!!!!
USA has many committed Allies. Afghanistan and Iraq wars illustrate well who they are.
Australia will increasingly rely on China for economic security, and on USA for military security. It is a tension that will increase.
China’s military got knocked back 5 to 10 years upon seeing western kit perform well in Ukraine.
The US Military is not dumb.
The UK Military is not dumb.
The Australian Military is not dumb.
The US Navy is trying to make gasoline out of the carbon in sea water!!!
What could they do with 40% of the world’s coal reserves??????????????????????????????????????????????????
https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/Article/2259523/nrl-seawater-carbon-capture-process-receives-us-patent/
seawater carbon to gasoline receives patent – US NAVY
These militaries may be the only organisations that are more aware of Peak Oil than the people on this site!!!
The oil embargo is Military Strategy 101 first day lecture.
A guy I know who served in the US Navy wouldn’t drive a car with a tank of gas that was less than 1/2 full.
He said the US Navy traumatisid him about always watching your fuel supply!!!
Seawater gasoline…feasible at $347/gallon.
Your taxpayer money at work.
The point wasn’t that the technology is good.
It’s that they are exploring ways to make gasoline non-conventionally.
I doubt they have overlooked CTL
The UK very definitely did not follw the US into Viet Nam. Harold Wilson made sure of that, much to LBJ’s disgust.
I stand corrected. I am pretty sure Australia did.
Thanks for pointing out.
ExxonMobil Guyana Advances Fifth Offshore Guyana Development
7:00 pm ET April 27, 2023 (BusinessWire) Print
ExxonMobil made a final investment decision for the Uaru development offshore Guyana after receiving required government and regulatory approvals. The company expects Uaru, the fifth project on Guyana’s offshore Stabroek block, to add approximately 250,000 barrels of daily capacity after a targeted startup in 2026.
“Our fifth, multi-billion-dollar investment in Guyana exemplifies ExxonMobil’s long-term commitment to the country’s sustained economic growth,” said Liam Mallon, president of the ExxonMobil Upstream Company. “Our Guyana investments and unrivalled development success continue to contribute to secure, reliable global energy supplies at this critical time.”
The $12.7 billion Uaru project plans to include up to 10 drill centers and 44 production and injection wells aimed at developing an estimated resource of more than 800 million barrels of oil.
Mike..”nobody with any military might that would come to our defense in a time of need”
Nobody is coming with a military assault on the US.
Just because some other countries balks at joining the US in some global police
assault doesn’t mean they don’t share our interests closely.
The smart ones would have had absolutely nothing to do with the VietNam, Afghanistan or Iraq
invasions.
And when it comes to economic warfare the US has shown by its actions repeatedly that it is a game of ‘do what is best for yourself’. We should expect the same from all other countries.
Our longstanding state of privilege is gradually fading. Any good will that we may have accumulated in the prior century has been squandered by being a bully, by toppling or undermining democratically elected governments in other countries, by repeatedly siding with dictators, tyrants and the ultrawealthy in other countries, and by using a gun when diplomacy would have been much more respected.
My use of the word, “ally,” was directed at Matt’s comment about how Australia, a US ally, is circumventing US sanctions on Russian oil. Europe is doing the same thing, as are numerous other US allies ignoring US imposed Russian sanctions, at the same time importing US tight oil and tight gas. Those US oil and gas exports are made under the guise of strengthening “US energy security” and I call dung heap on that.
I did not mention being “assaulted” on American soil, which is entirely different than the various threats, or actual attacks, on US interests around the world. I don’t consider any piece of national defense, nor long term energy security in our country anything to be presumptuous about. I would assume the draining of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fits your particular political idealism?
Otherwise I agree with most of what you said and all the more reason to keep the last remaining hydrocarbon resources we have left in America, IN America, for Americans.
Because, I hope you are sitting down. wind and solar is not going to save our great nation in the time frame you hope. Transportation “electricity” simply shifts one problem to another; its NOT a solution. You folks are lying way worse than the tight oil industry is lying about ITS agenda.
HI Hickory,
I’m sure you fully understand that fuel from sea water is a cosmic level joke for EVERYBODY BUT the airboys on a nuclear carrier, and why the navy is interested in this possibility.
But it doesn’t hurt to remind others about the realities of war.
Back in WWII, it took well over five gallons ( IIRC) of gasoline to deliver one gallon “over the hump” to friendly forces in Burma, on the other side of the mountains , plus of course the aircraft and crews to fly them…… losing quite a few of both aircraft and crews.
There’s room inside a nuclear carrier to install the equipment needed to pull this trick off……. and the reactor plant hardly ever runs at more than the equivalent of a slow idle except during high speed maneuvers, so the energy needed is available and more or less free.
This means if it works at scale that blue water tankers won’t be needed to deliver aviation fuel to the carriers.
We can’t afford screening forces adequate to protect tankers in the event of a hot war.
We don’t even know for sure that the huge forces assigned to defending the carriers are up to the job.
And we won’t know until somebody decides to find out.
Thanks for the teaching on that…got it.
👍
The US growth in solar power consumption has been about 25% per year for the past 4 years, wind power growth has slowed to under 5% in recent years.
If Solar power continues to grow at these very fast rates, nearly all US energy could be provided by solar power by 2040, though backup would be needed in winter months, some from wind, hydro and nuclear and perhaps synthetic fuel produced with excess power produced in summer, spring and fall or biofuel utilized in peaker plants as backup. A widely interconnected HVDC grid could move power to where it is needed.
Dennis – Have they figured out how solar power is able to design, manufacture, package, ship, install, remove, and then recycle itself, all without the help of oil input?
Could be mistaken but a solar panel seems like it might be a derivative of oil…
A complete WAG:
1-2 barrels oil to build (materials and energy required) and ship a 250 watt panel.
1-2 barrel oil for install/removal/recycle – might be more than this but good enough for a WAG.
At 2019 consumption levels, 30 years of solar would be equivalent to 6.8544e+13 Twh
100,000 panels would produce ~3 Twh over 30 years.
We would need to make 7.62E+16 panels every year, which is ~>500,000 times the current level.
If we could accomplish this feat, it would require an insane amount of crude oil…
A sensible human might recognize that we are quickly depleting the world’s ability to sustain human life as we know it, solar panels are far from a solution to our underlying issue, which is too many humans and/or too little oil remaining.
Kengeo,
My guess is that the inputs require less oil than you believe, see
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-april-26-2023/#comment-756405
When all of the inputs and processing and distribution are included, the EROEI of PV is higher than natural gas or oil, same for wind. As more and more coal, natural gas, and oil are replaced with electrified transport, wind power, solar power, and hydro with some battery backup and a highly interconnected grid that reduces system level intermittency, less and less fossil fuel will be part of the input to manufacturing as an energy source, some may still be used as a chemical input for some goods.
There will be plenty of energy to accomplish the transition, before long lack of demand will be the existential crisis for the fossil fuel industry imho.
The EROEI of PV is about 25, if we assume a life of 25 years for an average PV panel, it would take about 438 kWh or 1.576 GJ which is about 0.26 barrels of oil equivalent, but note that the energy can come from any source not just oil.
There will of course be energy required to produce solar panels, but oil is not the only form of energy. Energy can be provided by coal, natural gas, nuclear power, hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, tidal power, and biofuels. Oil is not the only source of energy.
Kengeo,
Annual 2021 World electricity production would require 16.24 billion barrels of oil equivalent energy to produce the needed solar panels. If this occurs over a 10 year time frame it would be 1.624 Gb/year. World primary energy consumption in 2021 was about 97.6 Gboe/year, so 1.6 Gb/97.6 Gb would be about 1.6% of World energy consumption to replace all electric power with solar over 10 years.
“This will definitely solve the problem of cheap abundant fossil energy caused overshoot,” the scientist exclaims about the new cheap, abundant RE technology.
Kleiber,
CO2 emissions would be reduced as only 40% of the energy currently burned for fossil fuel energy supply is utilized so less energy is required and also most fossil fuel energy use would be replaced over time significantly reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
Only one problem solved, there are many more to address which can be solved with cradle to grave manufacturing, better farming and soil practices, water conservation, and better educational opportunities for girls and women worldwide and equal rights for women which will solve the poplulation problem and reduce environmental destruction.
Dennis,
CO2 emissions could also reduce if all humans die.
Just because something could happen doesn’t mean it will.
Population problem ? Governments don’t see population growth as a problem, they see population decline as a problem. Be more real for god sakes. You are such a pollyanna. 😉
better educational opportunities for girls and women worldwide and equal rights for women which will solve the poplulation problem
I agree with Iron Mike: Be more real for god sakes. You are such a pollyanna. 😉
Dennis, the problem with human overpopulation is that most of the damage has already been done. But it will get worse, much worse. So what if the population starts to drop fifty years from now and is down by 10% one hundred years after that. The world will already be destroyed by that time. Hell, it’s half gone now.
Iron Mike,
You are correct, just not my preferred solution, to each their own.
The Chinese Government, S Korean government, and Japanese government have been trying to increase fertility rates with no success.
I suppose they coul Institute Taliban policies to try to reverse the trend. Many women might object.
Not sure who is being unrealistic, time will tell.
8 billion humans in a collapsing ecosystem is a problem?
Kleiber,
CO2 emissions would be reduced as only 40% of the energy currently burned for fossil fuel energy supply is utilized (60% is simply waste heat) so less energy is required and also most fossil fuel energy use would be replaced over time significantly reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
Only one problem solved, there are many more to address which can be solved with cradle to grave manufacturing, better farming and soil practices, water conservation, and better educational opportunities for girls and women worldwide and equal rights for women which will solve the poplulation problem and reduce environmental destruction.
Kleiber,
Fossil fuel also requires constant investment, no different from solar and wind, EROI is similar at point of use for both fossil fuel and renewable, costs are likely to go up for fossil fuel and down for renewable energy.
Total fertility ratios will continue to decline ss thay have for 50 years. Soon World population will be faling because the average family chooses less than 2 children. Look at trends in Total fertility ratio for the World from UN, this is just a brute fact.
Malthus didn’t predict the green revolution and us eating fossil fuels for two centuries. There’s no more abundant and cheap energy sources. Only REs, which require massive energy expenditure to rollout and also have finite lifetimes requiring they be rebuilt.
The funny thing is, unless people are getting massive and effective automation to replace those humans no longer being born, we see economies tank and social cohesion fray as consequence. Nor can we have people constantly churning out kids at unsustainable rates (at least without mortality rising to compensate).
Kleiber,
Do you believe fossil fuel does not require repacement? It requires constant investment.
The fact is that the EROI of wind and solar is just as good, perhaps better than fossil fuel (as resources deplete the EROI will decrease for fossil fuel). Wind and solar resources are abundant and relatively cheap compared to fossil fuel.
Wind and solar resources are abundant and relatively cheap compared to fossil fuels.
Yes, they are, except at night and on cloudy days when the wind ain’t blowing. Then you have a problem.
But not to worry, storage will not be a problem in a few years, in a few years, in a few years…..
Ron,
A widely interconnected electric grid allows intermittency system wide to be reduced.
A grid that is isolated, like Texas will need lots of batteries, pumped hydro, or synthetic fuel to reduce intermittency, for the rest of the US the electricity can be moved to wher it is needed over the HV grid. Upgrading to HVDC would reduce the cost to move power around over longer distances. Also excess power during windy and sunny times can be used to produce synthetic fuel cheaply or for pumped hydro or to charge batteries, all ways that backup for night and low wind periods can be provided, or natural gas can be used when needed. Lots of potential solutions, as we move to higher proportions of wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear providing power different approaches will be tried to optimize the system including demand pricing which would adjust electricity prices based on supply and demand.
Note that Iowa has 62% of net generation of power provided by wind and has one of the lowest electricity prices in the US.
“not be a problem in a few years, in a few years, in a few years…..”
Depletion, depletion, depletion
Peak, peak, peak
ArmChair- Do you have any productive better ideas ? Praying doesn’t count. I’m listening. Your the one with grandchildren on the front line.
Good morning Ron
Since it has been mentioned,
I find it astounding that one party and it citizen supporters are by and large intent making a strong effort to take advantage of the abundant domestic energy sources of solar and wind, while
the other party and its citizen supporters are hell bent on obstructing those attempts!
For about 70 years now.
In a world with depletion of fossil fuels as a major theme , with the message written in huge letters on the public wall since the early 1970’s, it would make sense for all parties to be tripping over themselves trying to outdo the other on taking advantage of these massive domestic ‘other’ energy sources.
Even for those who are big ICE enthusiasts…don’t they realize that the oil products and other fossilized solar energy products can last longer if it wasn’t used up so fast?
People really surprise me, even with the big skull volume.
I guess the ‘anti’ position is a partisan religion trained by Fox and friends… and that can explain the irrational stance. Hook line and sinker.
We have to use it all up to make widgets to make bigger profits to make GDP go up and to fulfil our end goal of producing the first known planet covered entirely in plastic. You have to go all in for that, and last I checked, conservation of valuable finite resources isn’t helping the shareholder dividend value here.
Look, if you’re just going to try and slowdown this movement, we may have to give you a stern talking to.
For obvious reasons, electricity hungry appliances are the best friends of the companies that sell electricity. For example, utilities love air conditioning.
Before EVs became a viable technology, that had little effect on the oil business. But as batteries improve, utilities are increasingly in direct competition with oil companies, creating a whole new dynamic.
EIA charts like the ones here show how the organization thinks: They predict oil production based on oil consumption, and oil consumption based on broad macroeconomic measures like inflation and GDP. This is a “safe” way of doing things, because it avoids making assumptions about external shocks like wars, financial crashes (which they never assume are coming) and technical innovation, not to mention geology.
However, these safe assumptions leads to dubious predictions. If you understand the markets they cover, chances are you can make better predictions.
That is why I think the arguments here about inflation, debt etc are headed in the wrong direction. Those arguments are the best arguments you could make if you didn’t know anything about oil production or consumption. But if you do, you should use sharper tools, and not rely on “big picture” ideas.
Alimbiquated,
Difficult to predict how things play out. Cumulative Tesla sales increased from 200k to 1.6 million in 4 years (3 doublings 2, 4, 8, 16) the next doubling took 1.5 years, so a bit slower to 3.2 million cumulative. It will be interesting to watch the process as other auto makers join in producing EVs. Global light duty vehicle sales are about 80 million and 10.5 million plug in vehicles sold last year, so 3 doublings (10,20,40,80) gets us to 100% of 2022 sales), not too sure it happens in 4 years, maybe 6 or 8. Then another 10 years to replace the fleet, assuming no robotaxis. A lot can happen in 15 to 20 years, it seems likely demand for liquid fuel will peak by 2030 to 2035, perhaps sooner.
Supply is less likely to be a problem than demand for oil, the same may prove true for natural gas as well as wind and solar and heat pumps remove demand for coal and natural gas, that I expect in the 2035 to 2040 time frame.
Dennis —
As a computer guy, I’ve been burned more than once with a warehouse full of products that were cutting edge eight months ago but nobody wants any more. I expect EVs to be much cheaper and much better in 2 years than they are now. That’s my bias.
Your predictions are based on the (not unreasonable) assumption that EVs will more or less the same product in 10 years as they are now. I doubt that. A year or so ago there was a thread here where people claimed that technological innovation is mostly over. I think it’s just getting started.
The biggest changes in recent decades have been in media so so it is tempting to downplay the effects of innovation on the “real” world. Books, music, radio, television, office work and mail have all been revolutionized, but those can be view as less energy intensive. But the tech innovation that drives the computer world is really about fine grained manipulation of materials, and it is already changing the energy production beyond recognition. In addition, energy consumption is is often a compensation for lack of information.
Whether you buy that or not, I’ll repeat a claim I’ve already made here: The future of the car industry is Chinese and electric. China already produces more cars than the US, Japan, Germany and South Korea put together. A quarter of the cars and most of the buses sold there are already EVs, and trucks are following quickly.
So be careful extrapolating the situation in the US across the world. The speed things changed here is Germany has been quite shocking. Assuming that buyers are going to be faced with the same choice 5 years from now as they are now will lead to inaccurate predictions.
The car market is changing even faster that it did in the 70s. This change is merging the electricity and liquid fuel markets, which puts oil companies is a completely new competitive situation.
Alimbiquated,
I might be underestimating how fast things will move. Note that I expect there will be innovations and EVs and batteries will improve and prices will decrease. I do not expect this will keep people from buying new EVs, just as it did not stop people from buying computers or cell phones.
It will be difficult for the car industry to ramp at the pace Tesla has as increasing from 200,000 to 2 million is easier than increasing from 10 million to 80 million, but perhaps I am wrong,
I assume you are not arguing this will happen in less than 5 years, do you think it will be longer than 10 years before plugin sales reach 95% of Worldwide new light vehicle sales? My best WAG is 7 years.
Seven years would take about a 30% growth a year, I guess. About 10m EVs were sold last year, an 1.3^7 is about 6.2, so it would be 62 million in 7 years.
That’s fast growth. The bottleneck will be battery production. Another question is the Osborne effect, which could cut sales of cars in general until the EVs are available.
The bottleneck will be battery production.
Lithium ion entered the marketplace in the early 1990’s.
It has been a while comrades.
Battery development is happening rapidly. Back in the early 2000’s, NiMH were just beginning to be introduced with the EV1 and Rav4 Electric. I think their energy density was around 60 wh/kg. The auto manufacturer’s killed the EV mandate. The California Air Resources Board saw to that and changed direction to Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles. A big mistake in my opinion.
The Lithium Iron Phosphate battery initial energy density was around 90 wh/kg and is now around 125 wh/kg. Variations of the lithium ion chemistries has helped up energy densities where the Telsa Model 3 has a purported density of 250 wh/kg. Labs have reported energy densities of around 685 wh/kg and Argonne thinks they can get their lithium air battery to 1200 wh/kg. Theoretical maximum densities for the lithium chemistries are in the 1500 to 3000 wh/kg. We’ll have to see what the operating parameters are for each announcement. 1200 wh/kg is about 5 times the density of a Model 3 battery and that bodes well for using them in large vehicles such as semi’s and regional aircraft service.
Alimbiquated,
Possible that vehicle sales will decrease, especially if self driving cars ever become a reality. The rate of sales increase in plugin vehicles has been about 40% per year for past 10 years, in 2022 sales were 10.5 million*1.35^7=86 million new plugin vehicle sales in 7 years. Very possible the rate of increase slows, though more charging infrastructure, more auto manufacturers producing plugin vehicles and more companies producing batteries and the inputs needed might lead to reduced cost with innovation and economies of scale.
As costs for EVs decreases, the ICEV will become like the horse and buggy in 1925.
SRSROCCO Report for Dummies(also known as Doomers) select data mining goes on vacation during Exxon’s earnings report
*****
Exxon Mobil reports record earnings that beat expectations and revenue that fell but topped forecasts
6:46 am ET April 28, 2023 (MarketWatch)
Print
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) reported Friday record first-quarter earnings that beat expectations, and revenue that declined as lower prices and crude and natural gas realizations impacted results, but was above forecasts. The oil and gas giant’s stock slipped 0.2% in premarket trading. Net income more than doubled to $11.43 billion, or $2.79 a share, from $5.48 billion, or $1.28 a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding nonrecurring items, adjusted earnings per share of $2.83 beat the FactSet consensus of $2.60. Total revenue fell 4.3% to $86.56 billion but was above the FactSet consensus of $85.65 billion. Oil and gas net production increased by nearly 300,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day. In the upstream business, which includes exploration and production, crude realizations fell 10% and natural gas realizations dropped 23%. The company returned $8.1 billion to shareholders during the quarter, including $4.3 billion from share repurchases and the rest through dividend payments. The stock has gained 5.9% year to date through Thursday while the S&P 500 has advanced 7.7%.
-Tomi Kilgore
Exxon CEO Sees Technological Advances Opening Up Acquisition Opportunities — Market Talk
9:17 am ET April 28, 2023 (Dow Jones) Print
0917 ET – Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods says the oil giant is working on technological advances in the Permian Basin that could open up opportunities for acquisitions. The WSJ earlier this month had reported Exxon had held preliminary talks with Pioneer Natural Resources about acquiring the US fracking giant, though those talks were in early stages and might not morph into formal negotiations and a deal may not materialize. Woods said the company is always looking for acquisitions but confines itself to deals that grow value for shareholders and that offer Exxon a way to leverage its advanced technologies to improve results. “We’re working real hard on opening up the value proposition of our current acreage with technology and that will open up, potentially, opportunities for acquisitions,” Woods tells investors. “But that’s down the road. That’s work that we’ve got to demonstrate to ourselves, whether there is a unique value proposition there and my view is we’ll leverage that to the fullest extent that we can.” (collin.eaton@wsj.com; @collineatonHC)
*****
Looking forward to shorting the next SRSROCCO Report for Dummies
SRSROCCO Report for Dummies(also known as Doomers…
You know, I have the same name for Cornucopians who believe that despite massive overpopulation, global warming, massive destruction of our ecosystem, the destruction of 90% of the world’s megafauna, destruction of rain and boreal forest, the disappearance of the world’s fisheries, the drying up of the world’s rivers and lakes, air pollution and the using up of the world’s non-renewable natural resources, that everything will be just fine.
But not to worry, all those who point out the obvious problems I list above are just dumb doomers. Everything is going to be just fine. All you have to do to believe this is to close your eyes and cover your ears and repeat, “Everything is just fine, everything is just fine, everything is just fine,” over and over again until you really believe that bullshit.
What do cornucopians believe?
cornucopian, label given to individuals who assert that the environmental problems faced by society either do not exist or can be solved by technology or the free market.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/cornucopian
Urban dictionary – Doomer
A person (usually a millennial or generation Z and male) who has experienced apparent hardship (relationship breakup, job loss, failure etc.) and has became fully immersed in apathy, self hatred, depression and generally being a loner. Usually asleep or tired in the day and more active at the night, spending time on the internet or going on long night walks ruminating.
Often has little other hobbies, whilst listening to characteristic music including Slowcore, Eastern European Goth, ‘Doomer Wave’, Radiohead and the more sombre and depressing forms of Midwest Emo music.
Doomers often want a normal life, but find it hard to understand why everything goes against them and thinks long and hard about a path back to normality.
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Doomer
Yes Ron, cornucopia’s are in denial also. That said, Exxon didn’t go BK as predicted per the report for dummies. Humanity has always lived on the edge. Yet we are still here. The environment isn’t going to collapse or run out of cheap oil in our lifetime. Don’t miss out on the time you have to enjoy the short life span of humans doing the Doomer thing Doomers do. It’s non productive.
cornucopian, label given to individuals who assert that the environmental problems faced by society either do not exist or can be solved by technology or the free market.
I agree. That’s exactly what a cornucopian is. That is one who believes there are no problems facing humanity that cannot be solved by human ingenuity.
A doomer is, according to you and your urban dictionary: A person (usually a millennial or generation Z and male) who has experienced apparent hardship (relationship breakup, job loss, failure etc.) and has became fully immersed in apathy, self hatred, depression and generally being a loner. Usually asleep or tired in the day and more active at the night, spending time on the internet or going on long night walks ruminating.
I have never heard such a line of bullshit in all my life. Apathy? Self-hatred? A depressed loner?
HB, I made an argument about what the state of the world is in and pointed out the fact that the cornucopian is just okay with the destruction of this planet. You did not reply to my argument.
Okay, HB, if you cannot answer a man’s argument, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
“Yes Ron, cornucopia’s are in denial also.”
Correct me if I’m wrong, but your an admitted Doomer too. What has it done for you that has been productive ? You definitely have gotten peak oil wrong in the past in early 2015. If you have a problem with the definition of cornucopian or doomer, that’s not me you have a problem with. I just copied and pasted them after a Google search.
About every other week Steve comes out with some cherry picked information on how civilized humanity is going to fall off a cliff and collapse. Two years ago Exxon’s addition of debt and paying dividends was a hot topic for himself for a period of time. It was just another one of his gloomy doomy post of his believed collapse. Well Steve got that one wrong big time and Exxon has been making about a billion dollars a week for over the last year. Every 3 months Exxon reminds me of just how wrong Steve’s convictions can be. How quickly some like to forget their wrong projections.
For myself, I make a lot of money buying Exxon when Steve was selling his disinformation about Exxon. I’ll short just about anything he says with his track record.
Honestly I’m not even sure what your argument above was exactly. Except for maybe your rant about the environment. But I’m not in disagreement about environmental problems. I’m just not buying into yours or Steve’s timeline. I’ve been hearing peak, peak, peak oil for 50 years. $15 gasoline would be good for the environment. I’m all for it, are you ? Oil is still to cheap.
Are you still using whale oil for evening lighting ? I didn’t think so.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but your an admitted Doomer too. What has it done for you that has been productive ?
Oh my God! I describe how we are destroying the planet and you ask me how that has been productive for me?????
Honestly, I’m not even sure what your argument above was exactly.
My argument is that we are destroying the planet, our human habitat, via overpopulation, global warming, and massive destruction of our ecosystem. We have killed off 90% of the world’s megafauna, destroyed most of the rain and boreal forest, destroyed the world’s fisheries, dried up the world’s rivers and lakes, polluted our air, and are using up the world’s non-renewable natural resources.
And you ask me how has that been productive for me??? Please, just continue to call me vile names. That will not bother me because I know they are coming from someone who has not one fucking clue as to what is going on in this world.
You remind me of Donald Trump when, upon viewing the massive graves of American soldiers, men who had died trying to save our country, called them suckers and asked “what was in it for them?”
Xom is up about 7% over 6 months, but xop (oil exploration and develop etf) is down about 15% same time period. Just saying
@HB
I like how you ignore the things posted in the other thread that prove you wrong, like mentioning proposed climate pledges for future offsets literal populations dying of extreme heat today. I think they have a word for that.
By the way, that definition of doomer got a good lol and even a lmao out of me. I’m guessing the realists are the ones praising Exxon for not going bankrupt. I’m glad the possibility of another Valdez, but in the Arctic, has been kept on the table. Truly a win for the environment. Take that, doomers.
Anyhoo, Pollyannaism is actually bad, mmkay? Oh hey look, science backs me up on this too:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378016300450
Your [sic] welcome. I’m going to go night jogging whilst listening to the dulcet tones of Thom Yorke.
No, mostly just trying to ignoring you
You’ve had good practise in doing that with reality, so congrats.
Hi Ron,
Generally speaking, you’re very much a realist, and well worth reading.
But you seem to be determined to ignore one of and for me and you and other people in countries such as the USA, what may be the second single most critical fact about overshoot.
It can and might come to pass that the entire world wide economy and ecology will collapse over a very short period of time, taking ALL of us down from the poorest to the richest.
But I’m personally totally convinced, based on my own years long study of the BIG PICTURE, that the odds are very high that we’re looking at a piecemeal population collapse scenario.
I’m not SURE that economic collapse will also be piecemeal, but it’s very likely, and it’s something that CAN be dealt with by way of emergency measures such as are employed during wartime.
When the crops fail in a place such as Afghanistan or Egypt, the people in such places aren’t going to emigrate by the millions…… they’ll starve in place, or die at national borders defended by whatever means are necessary, once the shit is well and truly in the fan.
And you can take it from me, as a pro farmer, or ask any professor of agriculture, or climate, and you will be told that droughts, flood, heat waves, etc are episodic events that occur at more or less random intervals. They’ve never been world wide, at least not since the dawn of civilization.
They may be world wide in the future…… but probably not for another decade or two or three, giving us some time to adapt to new realities involving agriculture, etc.
The population is going to peak a damned sight sooner than demographers predict, because they don’t factor in catastrophic events on the grand scale. It’s going to peak at a lot less than ten billion.
And those of us in richer countries, with lots of remaining resources and falling birth rates, have at least a fair shot at pulling thru with the lights on….. assuming we don’t allow immigrants in by the tens of millions.
And while I would rather eat shit with a splinter ( like shrimp on a tooth pick, as a party treat) than vote for a Republican ever again, I’m dead sure we aren’t going to allow immigrants into our country on the grand scale. Nor will any reasonably stable and secure western country.
Times are going to be tough and nobody much is going to be interested in paying the living expenses of a few million people who have no useful skills, don’t speak the language, don’t share the culture, etc.
Everything you hear about jobs American won’t do is pretty much all bullshit. There are tens of millions of us who will clean toilets or slop hogs and be glad to do so, once doing so pays noticeably better than flipping burgers or living on welfare and making a few bucks, sometimes quite a few bucks, on the side, off the books.
It will be a DAMNED SIGHT cheaper to pay such people better than it will to support more and more of them on welfare.
I LIVE among people on welfare who work off the books almost every day. I fucking KNOW what I’m talking about.
A well educated blue voting young woman who pushes paper isn’t going to be happy about taking such a job, but she’s sure as HELL not going to be even LESS happy about having to COMPETE for it with immigrants.
It fucking flat BLOWS ME AWAY that university educated liberals are totally unable to understand that this ONE ISSUE is MORE than enough to keep poor and poorly educated people voting RED until they die of old age. It doesn’t even MATTER if it’s a true issue……. just as it didn’t matter that most of the baggage HRC train was no more and no less than Red / conservative propaganda.
She lost because of it, and because the Blues don’t have sense enough to moderate their rhetoric involving immigrants, among other things of course.
Nobody is in favor of open borders…. but half the white people in churches all thru the South believe the Democrats are doing all they can to allow millions of immigrants into the country……. not true of course……
I don’t have any answers, other than to pray for Pearl Harbor Wake Up Events.
Mac, dream on. It is not about this country or that country, it’s about globalism. When globalism collapses, the world collapses. I could go into where we get all the precious metals that go into every computer, every watch, every automobile, and damn near everything we make or import into this country. But you seem to be totally unaware of any of that shit. And I really don’t have time to list them all.
Then there is fertilizer. Any idea where we get that Mac? We must have phosphate fertilizer and we must import it from China, Moracco, Egypt, Israel, and Tunisia.
Bottom line: If we closed down every import terminal in America we would be in a world of shit. We live in a globalized world. And it is not just the USA. Every country in the world is now dependent on other countries for imports and to buy their exports.
No Mac, the world cannot survive a piecemeal collapse. Of course, a lot of individual countries can collapse before globalization collapses. But there is a tipping point. And when we hit that point, globalization collapses and the world collapses.
Correct Ron , going to repeat myself . Collapse is a process and not an event . Collapse is not the sun that will rise in the East and set in the West . Collapse will be patchy . Some here and some there but we will reach a tipping point when all will collapse . Yes , the US may be the last one to collapse ( but also could be an earliest ) . A trade deficit of $ 871 billion per year for the US means the US financial and economic SYSTEM is surviving on a credit card . Globalization is over . I am more in the David Korowitz camp of what he called a Synchronized System failure ( SSF ) . OFM is an old timer so I am not going to educate him . My request is that he go back to the drawing board and re read some books he has already been thru cover to cover which are ” The Limits of Growth ” , ” Overshoot ” ” The collapse of complex societies ” add ” The five stages of collapse ” by Orlov and connect the dots . The planet has crossed the tipping points of 3 E ( Energy , Economy. Environment) and 3 D ( Debts , Deficits , Demographics ) . OFM , just because it has not happened to you does not mean it is not happening . Complexity and connectivity are the Achilles heel of Industrial civilization .
HIH, Ron and OFM, respectfully curious… are y’all calling for mankind to completely collapse and self-destruct? Seems unlikely to occur… so, define collapse. Is it truly “Collapse”?
Remember, humans adapt very well to challenges and overcome them. Or, we simply change the rules. Self-destruction is avoided and life goes on.
Gungagalonga, predicting something is not “calling for” and neither is it “self-destruction”. I am just predicting nature will take its course. We are using up our non-renewable natural resources and soon most of them will be gone. We are destroying our environment and soon it will not support such a large population. We are killing off all the world’s megafauna and soon all these beautiful animals will be gone.
Of course, people will adapt. The population will be reduced to what the remaining resources, in the nation in which they live, can support. And that number of people will adapt to that level of survival. Of course their lifestyle will be greatly reduced.
Think “tin” and “Bronze Age.”
Hi Ron,
It seems as if it’s impossible for you to get your head around the possibility that the human race is not NECESSARILY doomed to revert entirely back to the stone age, if it survives at all.
SURE things will be fucking tough……… but you seem to be totally oblivious to the fact that we had an industrial civilization before before the invention of the automobile, farms before the invention of manufactured fertilizers, adding machines such as the abacus before the invention of electricity, etc.
We don’t have to produce more than a third of the food we produce now in the USA in order to survive just fine, without anybody starving, and we can do that, without imported anything at all, for quite some time to come, and surely SURELY you do recognize that the population is going to peak and decline dramatically well before this century is out?
Has it ever occurred to you that having a full third of us, or even half of us, back on the land, eventually, farming the way my great grand parents farmed, two or three generations down the road, is actually POSSIBLE?
I am not arguing that things are going to be just fine, or even that most of us will survive, even here in the USA. I’m simply saying that such is possible.
There’s a real possibility we will be extinct within the next century. I have never argued otherwise.
I do argue that there’s a fair chance that SOME of us will pull thru with the lights on in some places.
Lets not forget that while wars destroy rather than create wealth, there are plenty of winners in historical terms.
We Yankees have a military establishment that’s bigger than all other countries combined, in terms of conventional war. That’s not sustainable, forever, but it just MIGHT come in handy over the next few decades.
If it turns out that we simply cannot figure out a way to survive without a mineral that can be mined only in some third world country, well, we’ll organize things so some local despot will do the mining for us.
But please, let’s not forget that we fought WWII with hardly anything in the way of critical imported materials or resources.
WWII level technology is good enough if the question is survival, versus our current model lifestyle and economy.
We can survive using Civil War era technology, if we HAVE to. Sure most of us would be in one hell of a fix, fatal as often as not.
I’m willing to change my mind.
I used to be a hard core doomer.
I changed my mind when I realized just how fast the birth rate is falling every where except in third world countries, just how fast the renewable energy industries CAN grow, and ARE growing, just how far we CAN cut back on energy and resource consumption without actually dying from exposure, starvation, and disease in modern countries. ETC.
I came to realize that although it will need a lot of maintenance, we have built infrastructure that will last for generations adequate to meet our critical needs without building more, because the population IS going to decline.
We will never NEED another shopping center, or superhighway, or major airport, or sports stadium, or even another high rise building with offices for thousands of paper pushers.
We will need new long distance power lines…….. but hey, once we’re in survival mode and quit pissing and moaning about trivial environmental concerns, we can build them right down the median of divided highways.
We can build some pipelines anyplace there’s good farmland near a city, and pump our sewage right out to the farm. We’ve been doing that, in practical terms, using hand or animal drawn carts, for thousands of years in some places already.
Sure there will be lots of cases of food poisoning. Doesn’t matter, in terms of the big picture, food poisoning versus starvation.
It seems as if it’s impossible for you to get your head around the possibility that the human race is not NECESSARILY doomed to revert entirely back to the stone age, if it survives at all.
Goddammit Mac, that really pisses me off, especially those last five words. All I have ever said is that we will go back to what our resources will permit us to do. That is just goddamn common sense. And I have always maintained there will be survivors. I have estimated that the survivors may number a few billion. Our numbers will be reduced. That is also just plain goddamn common sense.
SURE things will be fucking tough……… but you seem to be totally oblivious to the fact that we had an industrial civilization before the invention of the automobile, farms before the invention of manufactured fertilizers, adding machines such as the abacus before the invention of electricity, etc.
And you seem to be totally oblivious to the fact that the world’s population in those days was only about 2 billion people. Damn man, what does it take for you to get that through your head?
And no, hell no, the population will not decline dramatically before this century is out. Not naturally anyway. Haven’t you ever heard of population momentum. China’s population kept increasing for decades after they adopted their one-child policy.
We don’t have to produce more than a third of the food we produce now in the USA in order to survive just fine, without anybody starving.
Gad, you must have spent all of five seconds in deep thought figuring that one out. You have always lived in the East where the land is fertile. There is no such thing as “back to the land” for Phoenix, Albuquerque, Tucson, El Paso and at least half the West. It’s a fucking desert!
What percentage of americans work on farms?
1.3 percent. Direct on-farm employment accounted for about 2.6 million of these jobs, or 1.3 percent of U.S. employment.
Give me a break! Can you imagine the millions living in the cities migrating out into the countryside to build themselves a shack and grow their own food and fiber for their clothing? Everyone already on that land would be waiting for them with their guns. And those folks do have lots of guns, many of them AR15s. It would be a bloodbath.
Enough of this shit. I have said enough. I know you must believe everything will turn out just fine. You must believe there will be no collapse, no one will starve. It is just too horrible to even contemplate. It has happened before and it can, and will, happen again.
Thanks for that educational back and forth OFM and Ron.
I agree that a big roll back in globalization can and will be extremely destructive to just about all countries. And if it comes fast and severe…all bets are off on some manageable stabilization, even at much much lower levels.
When it comes to living with what is left over, OFM is more grounded in reality than anybody I’ve ever ‘talked’ to.
Thanks Mac for your comment. A few days ago I believe it was Hickory who wrote something like you add a voice of reason to this blog. I agree with your move to a view of more of a stepped down of society than a complete collapse. Over the last few years I find myself agreeing with your take on politics, economy and survival a lot.
” just as it didn’t matter that most of the baggage HRC train was no more and no less than Red / conservative propaganda”
The Republicans are going to try to play the same game on Biden and his age. I my view, his administration deserves an A on effectiveness. I do wish Merrick Garland had been more aggressive, but that’s just a layman’s view from the outside. The conservative propaganda machine will turn up the baggage train on Harris big time from now until the election also.
Hi HB,
Thanks for your kind words.
Now as far as Garland is concerned, I was speculating back as far as 2020 that while the Justice Department seemed to be moving like molasses in January , it was moving, and that this might actually be the best thing for the country, because the steady drip drip drip of bad news for the trump / Republican camp would have the effect of making softening up the enemy , so to speak, before the twenty four.
This seems to be the case, as far as the public at large is concerned. The R’s were supposed to mop up in the mid terms. They gained some but not a whole lot.
And now, just about the RIGHT time, as I see it, in terms of political advantage, we have Jack Smith.
To me, he looks like he would have been perfectly at home as a prosecutor during the Spanish Inquisition………
Implacable. Scary.
I’ll willing to bet that at least a couple of dozen trump cronies lay awake at night unable to get that face out of their head, lol.
He’s leaving no stone unturned, and that he has been given all the resources he needs to nail trump’s mangy orange hide to the wall.
And of course we have a couple of state level prosecutors with apparently rock solid cases moving thru the court system, or soon to be in court.
I’m thinking both of them are writing their tickets to high offices, such as governor of their state, or Senator.
OFM , as I have said earlier , there is no need to educate you but —- . You overestimate the powers ( and intelligence) of the guys at the top of the pyramid and underestimate the power of the populace . Look at the Bud Light disaster or at the disaster of Spotify to de platform Joe Rogan or now Fox to remove Carlson . These decisions were made by guys earning six/ seven figure salaries . Mankind will adapt ? Since WW II which ended 78 years ago ( many on this forum were not even born ) we have had an upside based on surplus nett energy . Easy to adapt on the upside . Now we are on the downside and the fractures are already appearing . As to going back to the farm , this will happen in the poor countries like India etc where there is a reverse migration from cities to the villages (TINA factor) but not in the developed countries . Do you expect the guy sitting on the chair doing coding , someone stocking the shelves at Walmart or whatsoever are urban jobs to go do farming ? You are way out of line . 10 years ago I went and lived on a farm to get an experience of what farming is like . After 3 days I quit . I can assure you that if God was to ask before sending me on the planet earth I would rather be cat ( get cat food , warm hearth and patted ) then be a farmer , Farming is back breaking , worst you are at the mercy of mother nature ( the weather ) . This is in no way disrespectful to the farmers . In my course of work I meet farmers who are surprised when I praise them to glory for providing the meals I eat . As per my earlier request , go back to the drawing board . All you envisage is 100 % POSSIBLE but 0% PROBABLE with 8 billion people .
P.S ; My grandson thinks milk comes from Aldi and money from a machine in the wall . 🙂
Hi Ron,
So since I acknowledge just about everything doomers say, but insist that MAYBE some of us can continue to maintain an industrial civilization with the lights on, while most of us die hard over the next century or so………
Am I a cornucopian?
No, no, no,… that is not what your post indicated. I was responding to that post. That appears to be a totally different person from the person who wrote the above post.
US February Production is down 53 kb/d.
Full update on May 6.
Ovi,
Thanks, looking forward to it.
A tweet indicating Russia will not supply oil and gas data starting now till April 2024 .
https://twitter.com/chigrl/status/1652302959114440706/photo/1
Thanks, HH. Why would Russia want to keep its production secret? Could it be because they see declines coming because of sanctions and all the foreign companies leaving? And all because they invaded Ukraine? Perhaps they don’t want people to know that the invasion is costing them dearly.
“Moscow’s exports of crude oil and oil products rose in March to their highest level since April 2020, jumping by 600,000 barrels a day, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly oil report Friday. The rise lifted Russia’s estimated revenue from oil exports to $12.7 billion last month.”
Who are we to believe?
(Probably not either one)
Russia’s oil exports are back to pre-war levels
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea-report/index.html#:~:text=Moscow's exports of crude oil,to $12.7 billion last month.
Who are we to believe?
Perhaps these guys, Reuters?
Exclusive: Russia on track for 2023 oil output of 9.6 mbpd in line with cuts April 24, 20237:02 AM CD
They estimated Russia’s aggregate production (crude and condensate) at 10.8 million bpd in March, down 250,000 bpd from February.
The IEA or Reuters?
Of course, Reuters is estimated yearly, while IEA is current.
Reality, or probability?
“They estimated Russia’s aggregate production-“
I think it is nothing but to avoid sanctions . They have taken this from the playbook of Iran . Iran stopped reporting data in 2018 when Trump tightened the screws . Anyway all oil is sold by Moscow and Europe is the patsy .
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/europe-buying-record-amounts-refined-russian-fuels-through-india-and-paying-huge-markup
If anybody has a link to an article laying out the history of mergers between large oil companies for the last forty or fifty years I would LOVE to have it, and thanks in advance.
In the meantime, it looks like Exon and Conoco Phillips are about to merge.
I am not seeing this news anywhere.
Are you confusing XOM and PXD (Pioneer)?
Sorry this is something that popped up in a news feed but it was gone when I went back to look for it. Probably click bait of some sort or another.
Mike S on the XOM and PXD merger . Technical and financial common sense .
https://www.oilystuffblog.com/forumstuff/forum-stuff/boogered?origin=notification
Interesting read Re PXD.
My view is that by overstating reserves, PXD understates well cost per BOE, thus understating cost depletion and overstating earnings.
Simplistic view of mine, but that’s what it looked like to me when I studied their 10k and 10q pre pandemic.
I’ve since lost interest and moved onto more enjoyable things. I wonder how much of that $5 billion NOL PXD used up in 2022, the only year oil and natural gas prices were high enough for them to make real money?
WTI $72.75 this morning.
There is 104 basis points of inversion between the 4 week T-bill and 10 treasury bond. Nothing bad could possibly be happening could it?
I predict OPEC will announce more production cuts within a month or two.
As I’ve said here before. I think they will cut again this year and once or twice next year.
They won’t be able to hold prices in the $70 range though regardless.
People like to ignore what the yield curves are telling us. They want to hold onto some narrative. China reopening or summer driving season or whatever.
Look over at Germany’s yield curve. Now who in their right mind would be long Europe? If you can manage to ignore their yield curve I guess it’s easy. Right up until your position gets steamrolled by reality.
Yea it will probably be a difficult task holding the price at that range or above, unless there is some geopolitical incident, which is a possibility.
I do not rule out your view in anyway.
The dollar getting stronger warrants a lower oil price. And also the uncertainty tied to financial institutions going forward. The NOK is getting hammered by some reason, and the SEK is not doing to well against the USD either. I have looked up other currencies and it seems like it is not the case that most currencies are depreciating against USD that fast. Still more inflation and interest rate pressure coming in Norway it seems, as we have to import a lot. Still, export revenue in NOK going up due to NOK/USD exchange rate. And some companies exporting are having an easier time.
That reason: Norway is a commodity country and commodities are down because of global contraction. Hhh has been telling you guys for months but you’re still somehow surprised or not understanding. That’s why this is an oil blog and not an economics one.
A lot of OPEC+ “cuts” are really just natural decline. That might not show up again for six months or more for most members who may therefore be reluctant to choke back yet (as no non-OPEC members ever choose to choke, no matter what the price is doing). KSA or KSA/UAE could go it alone but usually OPEC seems to like to present a united face, so a largish group will announce a cut by the same ratio. Also LTO drilling cuts tend to lag price drops by a couple of months so something might be showing in rig numbers, followed by production, from the March dip soon.
And interestingly Dollar is flat. Debt ceiling default risk? Credit crisis / bank risk? Who cares – dollar is not the king right now. Hello my old friend…. gold (and other duration).
Inflation is more of a problem in Europe. Traders betting on more rate hikes from ECB. And only 1 or two more from FED.
This won’t last too much longer though. All the problems that exist in US banks are present in European banks. And the economic data coming out of Germany isn’t good.
Global demand for goods and services is down. Which means less dollars needed. Actually taking some of the pressure off dollar funding.
Dollar goes higher when things really start unwinding though. Not there just yet. But will be.
I don’t see anything changing that’s going to set us on a different course.
And let’s be clear. The amount of bank reserves created by central banks doesn’t matter. Bank reserves aren’t the problem. Notice a 4th US bank failed. And that was with the FED’s backstop lending in place and the $30 billion in deposits from large banks could not prevent another failure.
Agreed. Europe is contracting across the board. But from an equity standpoint Europe is just like dollar only the exact opposite. Europe “should” be going down, but it hasn’t and isn’t. I closed my Europe shorts weeks ago long before closing my dollar position. I don’t care about reasons to be honest. The signal trumps all things. But yes at SOME point dollar will rally and Europe stocks will fall. But for now – no positions.
Inflation in Europe , inverted yield curve of Germany etc . A good overview .
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/05/02/just-in-time-for-the-ecbs-rate-hike-meeting-eurozone-services-inflation-spikes-to-new-record-overall-inflation-re-accelerates/
Yeah, I’m waiting for tea to come on here and tell me well now the SPR gets refilled and prices to the moon. Or governments prefer an inflationary outcome over a deflationary outcome. As if they have any control over money supply.
OPEC oil output falls on Iraq, Nigeria outages, Reuters survey finds
LONDON, May 2 (Reuters) – OPEC oil output fell in April due to a halt in some of Iraq’s exports and delays to Nigerian shipments, a Reuters survey found on Tuesday, adding to the impact of strong adherence by top producers to a supply cut deal by the wider OPEC+ alliance.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 28.62 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, the survey found, down 190,000 bpd from March. Output is down more than 1 million bpd from September.
OPEC’s April Production Falls: Survey
OPEC’s crude oil production fell last month to a level not seen in nearly a year, a Bloomberg survey showed on Tuesday.
OPEC’s crude oil production fell 310,000 barrels per day in April to just 28.8 million bpd, the survey said. The group had said at the end of March that it would cut production by another 1.6 million bpd starting in May, but much of April’s small decrease came in the form of unintentional production cuts, with Iraq’s decreased production for the month accounting for about 80% of the group’s total production losses.
Iraq saw its crude oil production decline 250,000 bpd to 4.13 million bpd over a pipeline shutdown that runs from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey. That pipeline is responsible for carrying about half a million barrels per day. Iraq’s production is at the lowest level since late 2021.
Nigeria saw its production increase by 3.5% in February before sinking 2% in March to 1.517 million bpd. In April, Bloomberg’s survey showed a dip of 120,000 bpd to 1.32 million bpd, partly due to the striking of ExxonMobil workers in the country.
Nigeria’s Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission had been confident that its production would continue to increase, eyeing full-year production of 1.69 million bpd as part of its long-term plan to increase production and grow its proven oil reserves to 50 billion barrels. Nigeria’s production target for March was 1.8 million bpd.
OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman, Gabon, and Kazakhstan make up the ones that agreed to cut more production beginning this month.
OPEC+ is set to meet next on June 4, when it will discuss production levels for July 2023 and beyond.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
According to ShaleProfile all Permian growth is coming from two formations mostly in New Mexico: Wolfcamp and Bone Spring (see below), which are presumably smaller parts of the overall formations with those names but with subdivisions Wolfcamp A, B, C etc. and Second Bone Spring , Bone Spring Little etc. All the other formations combined are in decline, probably accelerating decline now as the production curves look to be past peak for TX and NM. So I guess any future long term growth (or even maintaining a plateau) depends on whether the very rapid rise in 2022, especially in Bone Spring, can continue, which seems difficult, or some similar new formations come on line, which seems unlikely.
From an oil glossary, a formation is: “The fundamental unit of lithostratigraphy. A body of rock that is sufficiently distinctive and continuous that it can be mapped. In stratigraphy, a formation is a body of strata of predominantly one type or combination of types; multiple formations form groups, and subdivisions of formations are members.”
Production from LTO in other formations (without Wolfcamp or Bone Spring).
Again, will there be any sign of SPR buys?
I’m skeptical.
The end of the petrodollar?
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-212-the-end-of-the-petrodollar
Oil Plunges Below $69 as Pledged OPEC Cuts Fail to Dent Supply
“In Russia, meanwhile, there was no sign of a sustained drop in crude flows out of the country, despite its pledge to cut production by 500,000 barrels a day. Exports jumped back above 4 million barrels a day in the week to April 28, a level surpassed only once since the country’s troops invaded Ukraine in February 2022, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.”
So here is a crazy thought. Russia wants to get rid of oil in storage along with pushing their wells harder. Putin talks to MBS and tells him what he wants to do, MBS agrees and indicates that he will ask the rest of OPEC to start cutting production to offset increased Russian exports. That is the only scenario that makes sense to me to explain the current price drop. Also I keep reading that there are a lot of ships with Russian oil floating around looking for a buyer and a port.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-steadies-slumping-5-demand-234725786.html
If these crazy backroom deals were true, then why is the energy sector the worst performing for the month, quarter, and that’s with EARNINGS WAY UP! At some point, could it actually be, just slightly possible, that it’s a little thing we like to call economics? dear god, why don’t we carve some giant heads out of wood and point them out over the ocean in the hopes of getting an answer as to why oil prices are dropping.
texas tea – wellness check!! hopefully your gold is offsetting your energy losses.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-04-30/peak-oil-spells-trouble-for-consumers-as-exxon-conocophillips-brace-for-m-a-lh3d0oqd
Lost this earlier, found it again.
Thanks. Doesn’t say anything about XOM COP merger.
Iran seizing oil tankers in retaliation for U.S. theft of Iranian oil?
https://news.antiwar.com/2023/05/03/iranian-forces-seize-second-oil-tanker-within-a-week/
A new thread reporting on US oil production has been posted
https://peakoilbarrel.com/small-drop-in-us-february-oil-production/
A new open thread Non-Petroleum has been posted.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-may-4-2023/