Peak Oil Barrel – Page 205 – The Reported Death of Peak Oil Has Been Greatly Exaggerated

IN BAKKEN (ND) IT IS NOW MOSTLY ABOUT MCKENZIE COUNTY

01/04/201401/04/2014 Rune Likvern 46 Comments

This post was originally posted at my blog “Fractional Flow”.

In this post I present an update to my previous posts over at The Oil Drum (The Red Queen series) on developments in tight oil production from the Bakken formation in North Dakota with some additional estimates, mainly presented in charts. The expansion is much about the differences between wells capable of producing, actual producing wells and idle wells (here defined as the difference between the number of wells capable of producing and the number of actual producing wells).

Figure 01: The chart above shows monthly net additions of producing wells (green columns plotted against the rh scale) and development in oil production from Bakken (ND) (thick dark blue line, lh scale) as of January 2000 and as of October 2013. The 12 Month Moving Average (12 MMA) is also plotted (thick dotted dark red line, lh scale). — **Figure 01:** The chart above shows monthly net additions of producing wells (green columns plotted against the rh scale) and development in oil production from Bakken (ND) (thick dark blue line, lh scale) as of January 2000 and as of October 2013. The 12 Month Moving Average (12 MMA) is also plotted (thick dotted dark red line, lh scale).

There is still noticeable growth in tight oil production from an accelerated additions of producing wells.

For October 2013 North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) reported a production of 877 kb/d from Bakken/Three Forks.
In October 2013YTD production from Bakken/Three Forks (ND) was 775 kb/d.
(It is now expected that average daily production for all 2013 from Bakken (ND) will become around 800 kb/d.
The cash flow analysis now suggests less use of debt for manufacturing wells for 2013.
Major funding for new wells now appears to come mainly from from net cash flows.

kb; kilo barrels = 1,000 barrels

Problems and Politics Keeping Crude Oil Production Well Below Expectations

01/02/201401/30/2014 Ron Patterson 24 Comments

OPEC December Crude Output Falls to 2-Year Low: Survey

Venezuelan Policies

Venezuelan production dropped 235,000 barrels a day to 2.45 million this month, the survey showed. The South American country pumped the least crude since October 2011. Resources have been diverted from energy sector into social welfare programs, sending production lower.

Petroleos de Venezuela SA, the state oil company, was purged after a two-month oil strike intended to oust President Hugo Chavez from power in 2003. Nicolas Maduro, who became president in March when Chavez died, has continued his predecessor’s policies.

“It’s hard to see how the situation in Venezuela gets any better,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, which oversees $1.4 billion. “Funds have been used to prop up the government instead of maintaining the oil industry since the PDVSA strike in 2003. It’s clear the country is on an unsustainable path.”

Data for the above graph is from the latest OPEC MOMR published last month and includes data through November 2012. It has Venezuela crude only production at 2,364,000 bp/d in November so it differs considerably from the Bloomberg report above. That report may be using production reported by Venezuela themselves which they reported as 2,854,000 bp/d for November or 490,000 kb/d above what the OPEC MOMR’s “secondary sources” said they produced.

The U.S. Monthly Energy Review

12/24/201301/30/2014 Ron Patterson 108 Comments

The US Monthly Energy Review is now up with all the US Oil and Gas data for November. US (estimated) Crude + Condensate production was 8,002 kb/d for November. I think that will be revised later because the Bakken had a bad month in November.

The average, so far this year, has been 7,438 kb/d and if December production is as much as November then the average for 2013 will be about 7,485 kb/d. AEO 2014 estimated 2013 production at 7,756 kb/d so it would appear that they are already a bit high with their prediction.

Natural gas liquids, along with natural gas is supposed to be a major player in our drive for “energy independence”, is up about 1 million barrels per day since 2006.

Will US Light Tight Oil Save The World?

12/20/201301/30/2014 Ron Patterson 136 Comments

There has been plenty of hoopla lately concerning the boom in shale (LTO) oil production. From the New York Times: Surge Seen in U.S. Oil Output, Lowering Gasoline Prices

Domestic oil production will continue to soar for years to come, the Energy Department predicted on Monday, scaling to levels not seen in nearly half a century by 2016.

The annual outlook by the department’s Energy Information Administration was cited by experts as confirmation that the United States was well on its way — far faster than anticipated even a year ago — to achieving virtual energy independence.

What the EIA is actually predicting: AEO2014 EARLY RELEASE OVERVIEW. The data is C+C.

The first two points were what was actually produced in 2011 and 2012 and the rest of the blue line is what they are predicting for the future. The orange line is what they predicted last year. The predicted numbers this year are a lot higher but the shape of the curve looks the same. They predict US Crude + Condensate will plateau in 2016, actually peak in 2019 and by 2021 be headed for a permanent decline.

Note the difference between AEO 2013 and AEO 2014. The difference rises to just over 2 mb/d and holds that difference util 2030 when it slowly closes down to 1.37 mb/d in 2040. And everything above about 5 mb/d is all Shale, or Light Tight Oil. They expect LTO to rise to about 4.5 mb/d by 2016, hold that level for almost 5 years and for LTO to still be above 2.5 mb/d by 2040.

When Will US Light Tight Oil (LTO) Peak?

12/16/201311/14/2019 D Coyne 64 Comments

Ron Patterson has graciously allowed me to cross post this here. It originally was posted at oilpeakclimate.blogspot.com

ltofig3/

The rapid rise in oil output since 2008 has the mainstream media claiming that the US will soon be energy independent. US Crude oil output has increased about 2.8 MMb/d (56%) since 2008 and about 2 MMb/d is from the shale plays in North Dakota ( Bakken/Three Forks) and Texas (Eagle Ford). My modeling suggests that a peak from these two plays may be reached by 2016, other shale plays (also known as light tight oil [LTO] plays) may be able to fill the gap left by declining Bakken and Eagle Ford output until 2020, beyond that point we will see a rapid decline.

There are two main views:

There will be little crude plus condensate (C+C) output from any plays except the Bakken/Three Forks in North Dakota and Montana and the Eagle Ford of Texas.
The other LTO plays will come to the rescue when the Bakken and Eagle Ford reach their peak and keep LTO near these peak levels to about 2020 with a slow decline in output out to 2040.

Where are these “other LTO plays”? There are a couple of these in Oklahoma and Texas (in the Permian basin, Granite Wash, Mississippian basin), the Appalachian, the Niobrara in Colorado, and others (see slide 17 of the USGS presentation link below). Is it possible for these LTO plays to offset future declines in the Bakken and Eagle Ford? I hope to answer that in this post.