28 thoughts to “Open Thread Non- Petroleum, September 27, 2019”

  3. In other parts of the real world-
    In the lush green fields of my primarily agrarian constituency of Ambedkar Nagar, it is the season of rice. The 500,000 farmer families in the region have spent the last few months harvesting the winter’s wheat yield, burning their empty fields, and sowing rice seeds. And now, they lie in their huts of grass and mud (an indication of a landless family) or a bungalow of bricks and paint (a landowner family), waiting for the month of June. “The monsoon is late this year,” says Bansiram, staring up at the clear blue skies. “It has been late for the last five years.”

        1. I could be wrong but, the growing number of coal fired power plants might just be momentum, carrying on BAU and building what has traditionally been the cheapest, most reliable way to generate electricity. Renewable sources, specifically solar and wind, are significantly undercutting the cost of electricity generated by coal and it may be that some markets will find that despite the fact that the sun doesn’t shine on demand, it is an inconvenience they are willing to accommodate in favour of significantly lower costs of electricity.

          There are pundits who are saying that most of the recently built FF powered generating assets and virtually all the plants currently under construction will become stranded assets long before they are paid off. Meanwhile investments in solar are continuing apace as can be seen from viewing the news at:

          https://www.pv-magazine.com/news

          Among other stories over at Utility Dive (utilitydive.com), this one about Texas is particularly telling:

          Texas wind poised to outstrip coal generation with 87 TWh in 2020, report projects

          Dive Insight:

          Wind and natural gas are the United States’ fastest growing sources of electricity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In its September Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts U.S. gas-fired generation will increase 6% in 2019 and 2% in 2020, while wind power is expected to grow 6% in 2019 and 14% in 2020.

          “These trends vary widely among the regions of the country; growth in natural gas generation is highest in the mid-Atlantic region and growth in wind generation is highest in Texas,” the agency wrote in a note last week. EIA said it expects coal-fired electricity generation to continue declining nationwide, falling by 15% in 2019 and by 9% in 2020.

          Those trends are playing out in ERCOT, where Rystad expects wind to top coal-fired generation beginning next year. But the growth of wind power is a national story. The firm says wind power generation “has grown at an exponential rate and is set to make up 10% of the power mix in the country so far this year,” compared to 23% from coal (down from 44% in 2009).

          Rystad’s analysis points to the global average levelized cost of electricity from onshore wind farms, which it says has dropped below $0.06/kWh.

          “This development brings the cost of wind generation down to the lower cost limit of fossil fuel power, explaining why wind capacity has been growing and pushing increasing amounts of coal generation out of the power mix,” the firm said.

          Wind power has been ERCOT’s fastest-growing resource, according to the EIA. Since 2018, there have been 3 GW of wind generating capacity added to the state’s grid, and there are plans to add another 7 GW before the end of 2020. EIA says it expects wind to supply 20% of its total generation in 2019 and 24% in 2020, allowing it to match coal this year and outstrip it next year.

          Texas generates more wind energy than any other state and in 2017 produced a quarter of all U.S. wind-powered electricity. The state’s wind turbines have produced more electricity than both its nuclear power plants since 2014, according to the EIA.

          The Lone Star State produces more electricity than any other, but also consumes more due to its large industrial and oil refining sector.

          If coal is failing to hold market share in Texas and as Shyam wrote in his top post on the recent “Electric Power Monthly” thread, Texas is just getting started in solar, how is it going to hold market share in some of the other places where it is being built? We shall see.

          1. Islandboy

            It is a mixed picture.

            Coal and gas are cheap because they have been built and improved on for over 100 years. They also deliver power 24 hours a day 365 days per year.

            It is easy to close down a few coal powered stations where there is excess capacity and build wind or solar.

            Where excess does not exist, solar cannot meet demand in the evening and winter. That is why China, India etc and building lots of wind, solar and coal and gas and nuclear.

            1. Meanwhile:

              Wind and solar continue rapid growth, help cut Australia’s grid emissions

              The growth of wind and solar continued in Australia during the month of September, and the new additions are clearly playing the key role in reducing emissions from Australia’s main grid – despite some noisy myth–and-mischief-making from the political right.

              The monthly National Emissions Audit, produced by energy analyst Hugh Saddler on behalf of The Australia Institute, highlights a couple of key points in the latest month’s survey.

              Firstly, is the ongoing growth of wind and solar and their rising share of grid generation. This graph below shows that wind and solar now account for more than 14 per cent of total generation, and will continue to grow as yet more large scale solar farms, which really only made a splash from the middle of 2016, are connected to the grid.

              Australia is expected to be a major source of coal for much of the new coal plants under construction and yet wind and solar are undercutting aging coal plants in Australia. Something does not compute.

    1. Really now? Do you mean Jesus was an absolute asshole who supported republicans ideals? I suspected it all along. Thanks for confirming my suspicions.

      2. The dude is snarking. Watch the video. It’s atheists in discussion. Funny stuff.

        “Jesus said give away all your stuff. Marx didn’t even say that.”

  7. Oil is still not all that expensive. Alternatives for basic stuff like passenger transportation are cheaper, but some things are harder to replace. But…I’d say cheap oil depends on what’s included in the price. If society chooses to internalize the cost of pollution (including GHGs) and supply security, then alternatives to FF for and aviation, long distance water freight, seasonal ag, etc would be very competitive. If not, then…not.

    Choices, choices…Here’s a question for everyone: have you called your representatives? Even better, have you visited their offices and talked to their staff? There will be someone to whom the representative has delegated research and advice for energy issues – they’re the one to talk to. They’re likely to be impressed with real information, and you might make a difference.

    So…have you talked to your representative or their staff, and let them know your priorities??

    1. yes – I have told them I want Brexit …..

      that I want safe on demand power that’s cheap . I also pointed to the University of Reading report on wind power and about the reverse forecast of its power output , not to be confused with name plate max output capacity , as it indicates that wind looks to have a factor of 0.2 average with a max of 0.7 ( the 20GW capacity gave max of approx 14GW peak ) .

      and yes that does matter , its lower than the previous reported figure of approx 0.33 .

      meaning we will need to build more windmills , and that lacking any credible ( so far ) storage , they will still need to be backed by Nat Gas . Or we stuff the greens and build hydro and the Severn Barrage and other such projects because in the end we will have to build them

      or nuclear GenIV , or have the lights go out and get someone in who will REALLY get things done….

      I doubt it will make any difference as our leaders are so obsessed with power for themselves that they are fighting like a pack of ferrets in a sack .

      Forbin

      1. Forbin.
        You may want to restate your wind power pronouncements, because as they now stand it is gibberish-
        “on wind power and about the reverse forecast of its power output , not to be confused with name plate max output capacity , as it indicates that wind looks to have a factor of 0.2 average with a max of 0.7 ( the 20GW capacity gave max of approx 14GW peak ) .”

        Maybe review the definitions of capacity factor, annual generation, peak power.
        If you remain severely confused, you could share the information source to have others sort it out for you.

        Average EU capacity factor [CF] onshore=22%, offshore=37% as of 2018. Some of the newer big installations offshore have CF over 40%
        https://windeurope.org/wp-content/uploads/files/about-wind/statistics/WindEurope-Annual-Statistics-2018.pdf

    1. Big ice fractures were looking more highly probable once NASA announced Antarctic ice was growing and the biggest extent ever recorded a couple of years ago. More ice = more ice available to break off.

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