41 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, October 19, 2022”

  1. So other than killing the queen and tanking the economy, what did Liz truss accomplish?

      1. I think she proved that the market doesn’t actually want tax cuts for the rich.

  2. The following numbers are /- a few percent for easy reading but very much in the ballpark.
    Two years ago the cost of raw lithium carbonate was about $3/lb so this was budgeted by Ford to be about $1000 for each Lighting battery. TODAY lithium carbonate costs about $37/lb or about $12,400 for each battery. The road the an EV world is quite bumpy indeed.

    1. Thanks for the update.
      These spot prices are not showing up in long term business mining contracts-
      all of the lithium miners are no where near their prior high price levels.
      Maybe in a year or two.

  4. Elon Musk engages in sycophantic outreach, which is reciprocated, with Russian govt member D. Medvedev, who is under US sanctions for underpinning Russia’s illegal war of conquest. Musk praises Medvedev for mocking a US ally and asks about Bakhmut, a current military objective.

    https://www.newsweek.com/elon-musk-dmitry-medvedev-russia-liz-truss-resign-prime-minister-ukraine-war-bakhmut-1753804?amp=1

    https://www.cnet.com/tech/elon-musks-deals-may-face-national-security-reviews/

    Doing some shitposting to own the libs & as a result getting a national security review. That’s quite a stunt. Bravo!

    Who’s the next Tech Daddy/Great Savior that the cornucopians have in mind?

    1. I am to the point that I have little to no respect left for Musk as an individual, but it’s nevertheless essential that we consider his impact on society in dual terms.
      There’s his impact on the electrification of transportation, etc, and his impact on the political scene.

      There are dozens of super rich people mucking around on the political front these days, and it’s my impression that most of them are doing more harm than good.

    1. Thanks for that.
      I find the cargo versions of these small vehicles particularly interesting.
      Its a good fit for a smaller world.

      1. I grew up poor but just about everybody I knew had ample outdoor space for gardening, recreation, and working.

        Then I got myself into the middle class, or lower portion of it at least, and found myself searching for a parking spot, and the only outside space I had to myself was a balcony, living in the city.

        My apartment at eight hundred square feet seemed damned cramped, lol. Now I know some people making six figures who live in apartments even smaller.

        The point being……… we can get used to such things, and after a while we don’t really even notice them anymore.

        I strongly suspect that if full sized electric cars can’t be built and sold at prices ordinary people can pay, ordinary people will get used to driving mini electric cars, and even micro electric cars, and after a year or two or three……… they won’t even notice the difference.

        We don’t actually NEED cars with space for six passengers or three or four hundred miles driving range. We just think we do, just as I think I need an acre of lawn with flowering shade trees and shrubs. If I were to move back to town, I would get used to living in an apartment again.

        Bottom line, there’s enough lithium in one full sized electric suv to build half a dozen small commuter cars that will get people to work and home again.

        Lithium, or a shortage thereof, isn’t going to derail the electric car revolution.

  7. I need a tip from someone, please.

    I am writing an article about the Lima-Indiana field in NW Ohio, which gave up the ghost a century ago. I’m interested in it because two of my great, great grandfathers worked as “oil pumpers” there in the early twentieth century. Part of my point is going to be that people are crazy if they think world oil production won’t go the way of Ohio’s: That field was toast by the 1920s. That industry collapsed so utterly that I never had a clue growing up that I was living on top of an extinct oil field in East Toledo!

    What I am looking for is a great chart showing world production that shows clearly the most recent peak of 2018–and permission to produce that chart in my article. Any hints would be appreciated.

    Mike

    mikeb “at” foxhill “dot com”

  9. The Age of Social Murder
    https://scheerpost.com/2021/03/02/hedges-the-age-of-social-murder/amp/

    Social murder is the unnatural death that occurs due to social, political, or economic oppression.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_murder

    For example: disability plus poverty plus euthanasia = a threat to disabled lives

    Ableism: The System of Oppression that disadvantages people who do have disabilities. This system of oppression is about the interaction of institutional structures, cultural norms, and individual beliefs and behaviors that work to maintain the status quo and exclude people with disabilities from many areas of society.

    https://contexts.org/blog/euthanasia-a-threat-to-disabled-lives/

    It’s perhaps worth keeping an eye on Excess Death in your jurisdiction. The topic of excess deaths is very covid centric, naturally, but numbers are also likely impacted by Diseases of Despair, homicides, war, floods, wildfires, extreme heat, disabled folks electing for euthanasia cuz Home Care Sucks, and deaths that occurs due to social, political, or economic inequity.
    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline?country=PER~MEX~IRN~USA~ISR~BOL~ECU

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-covid?country=USA~RUS~MEX~BRA~IRN~PER

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diseases_of_despair

    https://ourworldindata.org/homicides

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/murder-rate-by-state

    1. I don’t understand here your insistent Mr Survivalist on continually posting the climate change problems. Only government has the power to make a difference and it’s not going to be painless, if it’s even possible. But than again, most of us exercise, go to the doctor and eat healthy even though we are all going to die.

      But I know, you know the number one problem in America. The current leader of the free world is the two party system. We need to fix that problem first, right ? You know, like your house is on fire and now is the time to drive up to Home Depot to buy a hose. Because your neighbors hose isn’t rubber reinforced 3/4 inch. I guess if the house burns down. We can all just go back to the stone age and eat rats and squirrels with tabasco sauce. Is that your plan ?

      1. Paging Dr Freud

        PS ~ the moral leader of the free world since October 1990 has been Germany. Germany has many political parties. Not sure what type of leadership you’re on about. You’ve lost the plot HB.

        PSS ~ running hose to my closest neighbor is gonna require a few $1000 worth of hose, especially if you want the good stuff. My pump could handle it though.

        Facing tough midterms, Biden releasing oil from US reserve
        https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-russia-ukraine-biden-europe-government-and-politics-a1f1f3361bfbac6ba59fc14a7446a678

        Apropos oil politics; how’s things going for Biden? After accusing KSA of playing politics with the price of oil, he seems to be doing it himself; to wit, draining the SPR to gain an election advantage.

      2. “most of us exercise, go to the doctor and eat healthy” ~ HB

        On another planet, as usual.

        “The average percentage of adults in the US that meet the necessary physical activity guidelines is 22.9%. This clearly shows the lack of exercise in the USA”
        https://policyadvice.net/insurance/insights/exercise-statistics/

        “On average, people in the U.S. score between 56 and 60 (out of 100) when evaluated for healthy eating.”
        https://fas.org/blogs/sciencepolicy/empowering-healthy-eating-in-america/

        “Compared to peer nations, the U.S. has among the highest number of hospitalizations from preventable causes and the highest rate of avoidable deaths.”
        https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2020/jan/us-health-care-global-perspective-2019

        Maybe HB flies from gated community to gated community or something.

      3. “But than again, most of us exercise, go to the doctor and eat healthy even though we are all going to die.”

        Not really. For example: According to the World Health Organization, obesity has nearly tripled since 1975. In the U.S., 42% of adults were considered obsess (2017-2018). Among major ethnic groups, only non-Hispanic Asian men (17.4%) and women (17.2%) had rates significantly lower than the average. Some 18.5% of children and adolescents in the U.S. (2015-2016), about 13.7 million, were obese. Childhood obesity is more common among Hispanics (25.8%) and non-Hispanic blacks (22%) than other population groups.

        https://www.niehs.nih.gov/health/topics/conditions/obesity/index.cfm

        1. China also has a real estate crisis, a drought crisis, a currency crisis, a covid crisis and a demographic crisis. Can you tell I’ve been watching China Update?

          1. With the problems they face, Xi and the hawkish insiders will be very tempted to get a big win.
            And thus take a big risk on going after Taiwan before his new 5 year term is over.

  11. The excess deaths data is quite interesting.

    Excess mortality hits 16%, highest 2022 value so far
    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/ddn-20220916-1

    Excess mortality: 12% in August after peak in July
    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/ddn-20221014-1

    Excess Deaths 37% Higher Than Pre-Pandemic in Spain
    “The previous spikes in excess deaths in the last two years were COVID-related. This new wave of deaths cannot be attributed to COVID. The proximate causes of deaths are cancer, heart ailments, diabetes and other conditions but there is no understanding why these usual things are causing more deaths at this time.”
    https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/09/excess-deaths-37-higher-than-pre-pandemic-in-spain.html

    The heatwave is perhaps a likely culprit.

    I predict 1 billion fewer peeps around between Q4 2022 and 2030. Follow along if you like; excess death data is widely available.

    1. I predict 1 billion fewer peeps around between Q4 2022 and 2030.

      It has crossed my mind—
      But I’m not an economist, like Dennis.

      1. 3.7 million excess deaths per year times 8 years is about 30 million, perhaps there will be another global pandemic with a severity similar to 1918 or 2019 sooner than 2119. Most of the pandemics between 1920 and 2019 were far less severe. One billion excess deaths over the next 8 years seems rather unlikely.

  12. Hyping the energy transition.

    The situation is dire, and worsening, but I no longer feel sad, nor angry, nor afraid.

    EDIT: And btw: we can no longer get anthracite coal for heating here in Maine. Well, you can if you look hard enough, but it’s as rare as hens’ teats and costs $10 per 40-pound sack.

    1. Robert Bryce: “Thus, last year, US oil use grew four times faster times [sic] than the growth seen in wind and solar combined.”

      Talk about a cherry pick. He’s comparing 2021 Covid rebound of fossil fuel consumption to 2020 and calling it a growth trend. Hard to believe this guy is arguing in good faith.

  13. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsNSF7oBYS0

    If this don’t get you interested you aint got blood in your veins.

    Multiple eye witnesses (trusted with flying multi million dollar equipment at 30k per hour), multiple Sightings over multiple days by the best tech on the planet.

    Energy is discussed in there as well but not the main point

    1. This video – and news/articles like this – make me feel like this is all part of an intentionally slow reveal.
      Rgds
      WP

      1. Radars and Infrared cameras don’t suffer from human delusion.

        Corroborated by credible human visuals is certainly not something to just dismiss out of hand.

        On the East and West coast by different groups of pilots.

        The Navy could easily come out and say this guy is lieing.

        There shouldn’t be something just hanging out up there with the ability to go from a standstill, to mach level speed.

        Last I will say on the matter…thanks!

    1. King Kong,

      New England, New York, and Pennsylvania used about 70% of the average from 1993 to 2019 in 2019 for heating their homes with distillate fuel. Many customers have switched to pellet stoves, natural gas, propane, or heat pumps so demand for home heating oil is far lower than in the past.

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