65 thoughts to “Open Thread Non Petroleum, March 24, 2021”

  1. The Georgia GOP Is Begging Biden To Act On Battery Plant, While Dems Stay Silent
    With nearly 3,000 jobs at stake, Biden seems uncertain about using a veto, even as Republicans, a civil rights leader and a former Obama official push him to do so.

    President Joe Biden campaigned on the promise of electric vehicles and green jobs, and Georgia voters responded with enthusiasm ― electing him to the White House and handing the state’s two Senate seats, and control of Congress, to Democrats.

    But a U.S. International Trade Commission ruling has thrown those plans into disarray, threatening to shut down a giant electric vehicle battery factory set to employ upward of 2,600 workers in the suburbs north of Athens, Georgia. In an unusual partisan twist, Georgia’s Republican lawmakers have emerged as the project’s most vocal defenders.

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/georgia-skinnovation_n_605a0947c5b6cebf58d2123a

    1. So the “law and order” GOP is calling on the President to ignore due process?

    1. Thanks OFM, a good article. Do you have any experience with no-till?

      >> At best, 24 percent of Corn Belt topsoil has been removed by farming. At worst, 46 percent has been lost. <<

    2. Thank you for this article OFM.
      I posted a link to it on a prepper/doomer site with the following comment:

      “The rich, black topsoil of the American Midwest prairie, once fertile and filled with life, has become a gray, sterile, subsoil. Its production of vast amounts of grains and soybeans is maintained by a deluge of chemicals, anhydrous ammonia, pesticides, herbicides, and fungicides. The grains and soybeans have less protein and vitamins than those crops 100 years ago. They are filled with ‘legally acceptable’ poisons that follow them all the way to the American consumer. The small towns and farm families that black soil nourished are gone.”

      1. Society’s Monoculturalization of Everything, and Everyone

        That’s along the lines of one of the elephants in the room I alluded to in the previous threads.

        If we have little connection to what feeds us, and/or who we feed, then we won’t know/care, or know/care as much, about the health of those remote industrial agro soils, or of the health of our local ones, since we are not doing anything about them since we are being fed ‘by remote’.

        But also, we, ourselves, are a bit like the dead or dying soils, since much of our human ecosystem– what makes us human and the things we need and need to do– has also been ‘strip-mined/clear-cut/monocropped’…

        We often hear about a method of population-control wherein women are given more educational opportunities… Now, while that sounds benign on the surface, if we look beneath, what we find is a society that’s much less benign than what educating women, alone, would imply. Where do women go? What do they do? What happens to the kids? How much are they hers anymore? How much is she, herself?

        Just do a thought experiment where a woman has a child in this society’s contexts, and see what happens to it and how the raising of it is essentially removed from the mother and family structure as a whole. The child gets raised ‘by remote’, like the food.
        In essence this society’s strip-mining/lear-cutting/monocropping is not exclusive to nature, but to the human and its nature as well. We become mere cogs, yet ones that cannot really function as such, given their contradiction with our nature. So we are like cogs that become stuck and/or break, throwing The Machine out of whack.

        This, by the way, is where I may part company with Nate Hagens with regard to humans as being a superorganism, if I understand his take correctly.
        At best, humans have been trying to be a superorganism, but can never be one because it is in fundamental conflict with their nature.

        So if we want a complex technological society– material technology as well as social– complete with its trappings, then it appears that, indeed, we will become trapped.

        These, incidentally, are the sorts of contexts that seem absent in the minds or concerns of some of those who talk about photovoltaic panels, electric cars and batteries, etc..
        It is like a perceptual monoculture. But given the above, this is unsurprising. If we are raised in, and as, a monoculure, we will view the world, and responses to our problems, as ones too. ‘Silver-bullet crops’.

        Back in The Oil Drum days, I seem to recall a thread where there was some discussion along these lines and where there may have been some consensus that, for example, children should be taught certain basics that make humans, human, and that place them more securely in their natural social and ecosystemic contexts.

    3. Why not planting trees in the agricultural plots? With their deep roots, they could bring at surface micronutrients collected in depth. Secondly, of course, no-till farming must be applied. With thick intercultural crops, lengthening of the rotations and possibly culture associations for production or to have sacrificial crops such as cow pea between ranks of corn, buckwheat or great millet with soybean, rapeseed with various legumes, cereals such as wheat or rye with winter peas, sunflower with spring barley preceded by regrowth of rapeseed and so on. The combinations are nearly infinite, depending of the pedoclimatic environment.

      1. Secrets of The Earth

        “The Eden that Europeans described when they reached North America was not a wilderness, but a well-managed resource, a complex combination of nature and culture, ecology and economy, a system so subtle and effective that it eluded the settlers who saw only natural wealth free for the taking. The result of this land grab in North America is that only 2% of the land is now wild, its major rivers are polluted, its lakes have caught fire, and its forests are dying from the top down. The tragedy of this commons was that it never really was a commons after colonization, but was surrendered to plunder, privatization, and exploitation in the name of Manifest Destiny and progress.” ~ Joline Blais

        BTW, when we till we can sometimes severely disrupt the intricate living networks within the soil. In effect, and as a kind of addendum to my previous comment, we can turn the soil into a near-dead monoculture.
        But if your meals come from someone, somewhere and something else other than your and/or your immediate surrounds and your focus is on photovoltaic panels and electric cars, then you’re less likely to know this.

        Sounds like a theme.

        Sounds like a theme we need to drop in favor of themes that actually challenge our apparent intelligence.

        Bopping around in photovoltaic-panel-juiced electric cars while feeding The Machine in a cog-job to pay for them while using climate concerns as a rationalization doesn’t cut it.

  3. OFM,

    We were talking about the correlation between being middle class and liberal recently. Well, I saw this comment on Quora, and it seemed relevant:

    “Many educated professionals (both in cities and in rural areas) are Republicans. People no longer assume that, if you have a steady job and a nice house you’re probably a Republican (though that used to be the assumption), but that certainly doesn’t make you a liberal.

    Traditionally, older, wealthier educated professionals tended to be Republicans, primarily because they didn’t like high taxes, and they considered the idealism of progressives to be impractical. This was before the culture wars so completely took over the Republican party, which has pushed at least some social moderates away from them. Even so, a lot of doctors, especially older ones, are conservatives. The medical field also used to be overwhelmingly male and overwhelmingly white. It’s now much more diverse, ethnically and racially, there are now more female med students than male. This means that older physicians tend to be white men, and old, white men are largely conservative. Young physicians are more likely to be non-white and female, meaning their politics are probably quite a bit different.

    Point is, if you pick a random doctor in their fifties, particularly one from a suburban or rural area, you have a pretty good chance of talking to a Republican. If you talk to a doctor in their thirties, particularly in a big city, it’s less likely. How that will shake out in another few decades will be interesting to see.“

    Geoffrey Widdison

    1. Traditionally, older, wealthier educated professionals tended to be Republicans, primarily because they didn’t like high taxes,…

      That’s a pretty broad brush there Nick. You need to separate “wealthier” from “educated”. Most wealthier people are Republicans, most educated people are not. Trump: “I love the poorly educated.” He did because they are a huge majority of his base. There are a few well-educated Republicans but the vast majority are “the poorly educated”, to use Trump’s words.

      Democratic professors outnumber Republicans 10 to 1, study shows

      There are more than 10 professors affiliated with the Democratic Party for every faculty member who is a registered Republican, according to a new study.

      Mitchell Langbert, an associate professor of business management at Brooklyn College, reviewed the party affiliations of 8,688 tenure-track, Ph.D.-holding professors at 51 of the top 60 liberal arts colleges listed in U.S. News and World Report’s 2017 rankings.

      Nearly 60 percent of all faculty members were registered as either a Republican or a Democrat, and of that sample, there were 10.4 times as many Democrats as Republicans.

      1. This study shows a sharp difference between liberal arts and “trade schools” like engineering (which is what you mainly get in military schools). That fits with the commentary I quoted, which is discussing medicine. In my experience a majority of physicians are in the field simply to make money, rather than as a calling (that is, as something that is intellectually interesting in its own right, or as something that allows one to help others).

        So, the problem is that not all education is equal.

        1. I am familiar with large numbers of physicians through work over the years.
          My experience is that the overall trend is that those in live in “blue zones” are there in part due the affinity they have with the culture, and they vote heavily democratic!
          Likely the same with other other high earners, or those with wealth accumulation.
          There is a reason they don’t choose to live in the “red zones”, even though in most cases they could earn/save significantly more by living away from progressive/multicultural and better educated areas.

          And conversely I have seen hospital staffs in majority republican voting areas, and they closely reflect the voting trends of the general populace. They tend to be more religious, racist, and supremacist.

          1. Yeah, location matters. And, it’s another way people self-select.

            I used to have a cousin who would winter in Florida – I could tell when she had been there, because she suddenly had less rational ideas…

    2. Note that my wife is a physician that is over 50, nearly all of the physicians we know (and there are many that are 50 or older) are not Republicans, or if they are they are embarrassed to admit it in public.

      🙂

      1. You may select friends with similar ideas:

        “We know that Americans are increasingly sorting themselves by political affiliation into friendships, even into neighborhoods. Something similar seems to be happening with doctors and their various specialties.

        …though doctors, over all, are roughly split between the parties, some specialties have developed distinct political preferences.. in certain medical fields, large majorities of physicians tend to share the political leanings of their colleagues, and a study suggests ideology could affect some treatment recommendations. In surgery, anesthesiology and urology, for example, around two-thirds of doctors who have registered a political affiliation are Republicans. In infectious disease medicine, psychiatry and pediatrics, more than two-thirds are Democrats.

        The fields with higher average salaries tended to contain more doctors who were Republican, while the comparatively lower-paying fields were more popular among Democrats. That matches with national data, which show that, for people with a given level of education, richer ones are more likely to lean Republican (possibly because of a concern over the liberal policy goal of taxing the wealthiest at a higher rate).”

        https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/07/upshot/your-surgeon-is-probably-a-republican-your-psychiatrist-probably-a-democrat.html

        If I may ask, what specialty is your wife in?

  4. Transition fuel you say (from today’s NY Times),

    DRILLERS BURNED OFF GAS AT A STAGGERING RATE AS WINTER STORM HIT TEXAS

    The need to intentionally burn off, or flare, an estimated 1.6 billion cubic feet of gas in a single day — a fivefold increase from rates seen before the crisis, according to satellite analysis — came as the state’s power plants went offline and pipelines froze, so the wells simply had no place to send the natural gas still streaming out of the ground. As a result, the gas had to be set ablaze, fueling towering flames, the highest of which can reach hundreds of feet into the air…

    Many producers in the Permian drill primarily for oil, not natural gas, and therefore simply flare off much of the gas that comes up alongside the oil because they deem it not worth the effort or expense to capture and sell. And the accuracy of flare volume data, which is self-reported by operators, has been difficult to assess…

    It is also quite likely that methane emissions from oil and gas infrastructure are vastly underestimated, studies have shown, further eroding gas’s advantage over dirtier-burning coal in the fight against climate change.

    NB The potency of methane as a greenhouse gas is 86 times more potent than the same amount of carbon dioxide — over a 20-year period.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/climate/texas-blackout-flaring-natural-gas.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Climate and Environment

  5. Astronomy buffs will want to see these images of M87s “core”.

    FOCUS ON THE FIRST EVENT HORIZON TELESCOPE RESULTS

    A stunning image of the shadow confines the mass of M87 to within its photon orbit, providing the strongest case for the existence of supermassive black holes. These observations are consistent with Doppler brightening of relativistically moving plasma close to the black hole lensed around the photon orbit. They strengthen the fundamental connection between active galactic nuclei and central engines powered by accreting black holes through an entirely new approach. In the coming years, the EHT Collaboration will extend efforts to include full polarimetry, mapping of magnetic fields on horizon scales, investigations of time variability, and increased resolution through shorter wavelength observations.

    https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/2041-8205/page/Focus_on_EHT

    https://phys.org/news/2021-03-astronomers-image-magnetic-fields-edge.html

  6. I just realized I have only filled my tank once this year. I doubt I will again before May.

    Also I haven’t had a sit down meal in a restaurant for over a year.

  7. “China generated over half world’s coal-fired power in 2020: study-
    Although China added a record 71.7 gigawatts (GW) of wind power and 48.2 GW of solar last year, it was the only G20 nation to see a significant jump in coal-fired generation, according to research from Ember, a London-based energy and climate research group.”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-china-coal/china-generated-over-half-worlds-coal-fired-power-in-2020-study-idUSKBN2BK0PZ

      2. As clearly stated in the article, this has more to do with import substitution than any planned increase in consumption.

        According to some sources, India’s coal consumption may already have peaked:
        https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/coal/coal-power-use-in-india-may-have-already-peaked-three-years-ago-report/81027272

        Also India’s coal imports are falling quickly:
        https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/coal/indias-coal-import-drops-14-per-cent-in-apr-feb-period-of-2020-21/81741467

        But Bloomberg expects consumption to increase:
        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-16/world-s-three-biggest-coal-users-getting-ready-to-burn-even-more

        So I don’t think the situation is that clear.

        1. Alim , I will assist .
          Unlike the West in India the calendar year is not the financial year . In India the financial year is from 1st April to 31st March . Why ? Agriculture is the factor . These dates were pegged keeping in view the data of the sowing and harvesting seasons .
          India went into complete lockdown on 21st March 2020 and it was lifted in various stages . The final lift was only completed in mid December 2020 . So during this period economic activity shrank by 27.5% (-27.5%) so there was no need for electricity and hence no need for coal imports . As to peak in 2018 . Correct . Why ? India is in degrowth since 2014 . It’s growth rate fell from 7.8% in 2014 to about 3.9% just before the lockdown in March 2020 . 2018 was a good year for monsoon and agriculture and high use of electricity by the agro sector . Consumption of coal will increase ? I don’t know . Maybe , but that will be because a ramp up of renewables will slow due to low CAPEX and the degrowth story is continuing after lockdown . The second wave hit just about 3 weeks ago . The govt is broke specially the states .

          1. Hole…
            4% gdp growth is very rapid growth. it is not degrowth, It is not economic contraction.
            India gdp will be larger in two years than it was pre-pandemic.

          2. Hicks , From 7.8% in 2014 to 3.9% in 2020 is degrowth , not growth and then on to negative 27.5 % is a disaster . It will be larger in two years . Want to take a bet ? .

            1. “degrowth” is commonly meant to mean “decline”, or a negative growth rate. In this case 3.9% growth would generally not be called “degrowth”.

              I think the word you want is “deceleration”, meaning that the rate of growth is declining.

            2. Nick G , yes you hit the nail right on the head . Tks for the assist .

          3. Hole- I don’t want to give the impression of totally discounting the pessimistic scenario that you represent so very well.
            If we get covid variants that are no longer well controlled by vaccinations- all bests are off.
            For example.

            Lets remember that we [the human world] have gotten off relatively easy with this pandemic thus far.
            Mortality rate is roughly 2%, or less.
            Around 75% of deaths are in those over 65 years.
            In USA, 78% of covid hospitalizations were overweight. Common thread worldwide is obesity.

            Pandemics can be much more severe. They can be much more contagious, much more lethal, and kill younger age groups.
            And the agents can be spread not just through incompetent policy and behaviors, but intentionally.

            1. Hicks, I am not paying a lot of attention to infection ,morality rates and neither to vaccinations . What I am looking at is the economic damage that govt strategy in handling the crisis is causing . Anyway the second wave is just 3 weeks old and the govt hasn’t resorted to lockdown which was brutal the last time . The problems with the Indian economy are structural and need resolution and the politicians don’t have the will to do that . The Covid just made the problems from bad to worse . My forecast is based by ground realities that exist not only in the economic sense but also how this is interlinked with issues like caste ,religion , urban-rural divide ,demographics etc . which also have to be addressed simultaneously . Tks for your thoughts .
              P.S : A pessimist is an optimist armed with the facts . 🙂

  8. If a tree falls in the forest…?

    ” Here’s a multibillion-dollar question that could help determine the fate of the global climate: If a tree falls in a forest—and then it’s driven to a mill, where it’s chopped and chipped and compressed into wood pellets, which are then driven to a port and shipped across the ocean to be burned for electricity in European power plants—does it warm the planet?”
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/26/biomass-carbon-climate-politics-477620?utm_source=pocket-newtab

    Worse than coal burning, if you consider the habitat destruction.

    1. We must protect our trees.
      For we, all of us,
      are products of trees.

    1. Its a fight the humans will lose.
      And the bosses will have the bigger robots. You can bank on that.

      The term ‘expendable zones’ will appear in the news feeds.

      1. Well, yes and no. Robots already do most automated manual labor, like in automobile plants. But if you are talking about AI, artificial intelligence, that is another story. No, robots with AI will not take over the world. That is a lot of science fiction bullshit. I have been following this story for years and some of it is just unbelievable. Like so-called nano-bots. Total unbelievable bullshit. Or even human size and human type robots with AI. Nonsense! I don’t understand how anyone can believe that bullshit.

        1. Ron, what worries me is the use of robots by governments and corporations for security enforcement purposes.
          Robots will be armed. Today we see drones in the air, controlled from the ground.
          Think of ground drones, all shapes and sizes. With all sorts of weaponry.
          German Shepard robots on patrol.
          Ask questions later.
          This could get very ugly, very quick.

          And I do think you are making a mistake downplaying the role of AI in all of this. Development is going on quietly behind the scenes, but will front and center before too long- 5 to 20 year timeframe perhaps.
          The AI being developed for autopilot driving is dramatic and advancing quickly, and will be easily adapted for use by security/military robots.
          Unfortunately in 2021 this is not fantasy.

          1. Hickory, drones are not robots. Human control is not artificial intelligence, it’s human intelligence. Any machine that is under human control is not a robot.

            Driverless vehicles are a dismal failure so far. They are not Ai, they just sense and react and otherwise follow their program as to when to start and where to stop, and when to turn.

            There is really no such thing as artificial intelligence. Machines cannot think, they can only sense and react, a kind of glorified motion detector. That, by any stretch of immigration, is not intelligence.

            Think of ground drones, all shapes and sizes. With all sorts of weaponry.
            German Shepard robots on patrol.

            Hickory, you have been reading too damn many science fiction novels.

            No, I am not afraid of robots taking over the world. That is pure science fiction.

            1. I don’t think you have been keeping up with advances in the sectors that relate to robotics, weaponry, automation, or computers.
              We are no longer in year 2000.
              Its like saying that photovoltaics will never be cost competitive with other forms of electrical generation.
              I am no expert in any of these things, but I do recognize that the technology is ripe for applications that will startle us to the core.

              Death by Algorittm
              https://www.vox.com/2019/6/21/18691459/killer-robots-lethal-autonomous-weapons-ai-war
              https://futureoflife.org/lethal-autonomous-weapons-systems/
              https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/09/killer-robots-and-new-era-machine-driven-warfare/597130/
              https://time.com/5230567/killer-robots/

            2. Hickory, I have already stated that we have robots that do manual labor, like the ones on the automobile assembly line. And we might call the driverless car, driven by a robot. And we might one day have weapons that, through their program, try to identify friend from foe, then try to kill that foe. Actually, we have had that in combat planes for a long time except the “kill” option was left for the pilot to decide.

              But these are just machines that obey their program installed by humans. Yes, we will continue to have such weapons as each side in the arms race tries to outdo each other. And I do indeed hope our side develops better robots than Russia or China.

              But unless Russia or China or whomever, builds better such weapons than the USA, then this is nothing we should fear. Indeed, we should hope for the success of our own technology over that of our advisories.

              But this is not the fear that some people have concerning Artificial Intelligence. These weapons are nothing even close to AI. They are all just human programmed and controlled robots. Please do not confuse any of these weapons with AI-controlled robots. That is, robots that simply decide, on their own, to take over the world and destroy their earthly creators. Or anything close to that.

              Robots will always be programmed and controlled by human beings, never by themselves. There is no such thing as Artificial Intelligence.

            3. If I was younger, I’d be more worried what the domestic corporations and government security forces would be deploying, than the Russians.

              People will teach armed robots to target human gatherings of more than 5 people during security lock-downs. Ask questions later, if ever.

              I hope you are right that all of this is of no concern.

  10. Having competent Federal government leadership matters-
    “The Biden administration on Monday announced a concerted effort between the Environmental Protection Agency and the departments of the Interior, Energy, Commerce and Transportation, to deploy 30 GW of offshore wind in the U.S. by 2030,”

    This accelerated time frame is planning to have the equivalent power output of 14 new nuclear power plants [full-size 1000 MW capacity] up and running in the next 8-9 years, from just this initiative.
    https://www.utilitydive.com/news/biden-administration-sets-target-for-30-gw-offshore-wind-by-2030-plans/597523/

    Lot of jobs- “The event included a commitment by Interior, Energy and Commerce to establish a target to deploy 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030, which is expected to create nearly 80,000 jobs”

    And the next decade of renewable projects will dwarf this decades.

  11. Trivia FYI. I got my first Covid shot one week ago, the Pfizer. I get the other in two weeks. Anyone else has it yet? Any Trumpites out there who think the virus is a hoax, a conspiracy promoted by the liberal press?

    1. Got the AstraZeneca two weeks ago. At the time, Ontarians had to be over 80 to be vaccinated. Fortunately for me, Ontario had not approved the AstraZeneca vaccine for those over 65 yet, and had just received a big pile of AstraZeneca doses that were going to expire early in April. This led to offering those doses to people 60 to 64 so they wouldn’t be wasted.

      The blood clot problems that caused the European countries to withdraw the vaccine happened as I was waiting for my shot. I weighed the risk and decided the clotting issue was probably background noise, and that even if it wasn’t, the risk was tiny. As it turned out, not a bad bet.

      They found the cause of the blood-clotting issues the day after I got my shot. The current theory is that the clotting is the result of a rare autoimmune response caused by a condition called cerebral venous sinus thrombosis, or CVST. All of the people affected are under 55, and 90% are women.

      Ontario approved AstraZeneca for those over 65 a week after I had my shot, and put the bottom age limit at 55 yesterday.

      I get the second dose in 2 to 3 months; the idea is that more people with partial immunity is better than fewer people with full immunity.

      1. Bottom age limit for vaccination in Ontario was 60 as of Monday, March 29. That now includes me, so I went online to book vaccinations and could find April 13 and Aug 2 appointments at the earliest in my area. Pfizer and Moderna are the ones being offered at my site.

        1. Sorry … limit of 70 last Monday, not 60! Showing my age, perhaps.

    2. Anyone else has it yet?
      I’ve had both doses of Pfizer.
      It has been over a month from my second dose.

    4. Here in UK, had my first Astra Zeneca shot two weeks ago (age 63). UK leads the US in cumulative vaccinations per 100 people. See attached graphic.

  12. We were talking about the correlation between being black and liberal recently.

    If you use legality of abortion as a proxy for “liberal”, we find that blacks are becoming more liberal: at least as liberal as whites:

    Black Americans Non-Black Americans
    Abortion: % Morally acceptable
    2001-2007 31 41
    2017-2020 46 43
    Abortion: % Legal under any circumstances
    2001-2007 24 25
    2017-2020 32 27

    https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/318932/black-americans-abortion.aspx

  14. On and on it goes.

    SHARP INCREASE IN DESTRUCTION OF VIRGIN FOREST IN 2020

    In total, the tropics lost 12.2 million hectares of tree cover, including forests and plantations, last year, driven largely by agriculture. But researchers said extreme heat and drought also stoked huge fires that consumed swathes of forest across Australia, Siberia and deep into the Amazon.

    The destruction of tropical primary forests in 2020 released 2.64 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2020, equal to the annual emissions of India or 570 million cars, more than double the number on the road in the United States. “The longer we wait to stop deforestation, and get other sectors on to net zero trajectories, the more likely it is that our natural carbon sinks will go up in smoke.”

    https://phys.org/news/2021-03-sharp-destruction-virgin-forest.html

    1. And who’s to blame for this; well, us.

      CONSUMER POSE ‘GROWING THREAT’ TO TROPICAL FORESTS

      “Consumer behaviour in the UK and other rich nations is responsible for the loss of almost 4 trees per person per year. Increasing numbers of trees are now being planted in the developed world but imports of products linked to deforestation undermine these efforts.

      “Our consumption is not destroying our forests, but the forests of other countries, particularly the tropical forest, which is the richest in terms of biodiversity. The main culprits are our consumption of wood, meat, palm oil and soya.”

      https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-56566377

  15. Solar still largely underestimated

    The potential of solar PV to act as the main force to decarbonize the world’s energy mix is still being fully underestimated by different scenarios provided by several important institutions, including the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

    This conclusion was drawn by two separate studies published this week by scientists at Aarhus University, in Denmark, and researchers from the German Aerospace Center (DLR).[snip]

    “All the models used by the IPCC in [its] reports apply a cost that falls to a minimum of €1 per installed watt in the year 2050. However, the average cost today is already cheaper than this. In other words, 30 years before previously assumed,” Victoria stated. “The IPCC emphasizes other energy sources and technologies and underestimates the contribution from solar cells.” According to her, the international institution should acknowledge the primary role of the PV technology in the global energy transition.[snip]

    The German group selected scenarios that were released after 2015, including a long-term scenario of the energy system including the capacity structure for the power plant fleet, and provided cost estimates for capex and LCOE. “There are six regional or national studies that cover the USA, China, [the European] Union, India, Brazil, and South Africa, while the rest are … global,” the German paper specified. The studies were published by scientific researchers, government bodies, or non-governmental organizations including the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the European Commission, the Indian government, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), among others.

    The paper notes that only one of the selected studies assumes that the LCOE of solar in 2050 will be lower than today’s auction values. “In other words, planning agencies use costs of PV for 2050 that have been invalidated in today’s market,” the paper’s authors emphasized.

    The significance of this cannot be overstated! All of these studies and projections have used cost estimates for solar in 2030 that have already been achieved! This means that all manner of projections for carbon emissions are utterly bogus. This is pretty much what Tony Seba has been saying all along. Just yesterday I noticed this:

    IHS Markit forecasts 181 GW of new PV capacity for this year

    U.K.-based market observer IHS Markit has significantly raised its forecast PV installation figures for this year, from 158 GW to 181 GW.

    In the white paper IHS Markit Top 10 Cleantech Trends in 2021, the analyst said this growth would represent a 27% year-on-year increase compared to 2020 and would materialize in a scenario that the analysts described as characterized by strong demand despite increased module prices, long lead times, and rising freight costs.

    I have been seeing a steady flow of news on the PV Magazine web site about expansion in PV manufacturing capacity so the above article is not particularly surprising. Together these two articles illustrate just how wrong past projections have been eg>

    Solar sector to add 552 GW by 2027 led by China

    Over the coming decade, the global solar market is in line for 138% growth, from 395 GW at the end of 2017 to 942 GW at the end of 2027, shows a new outlook produced by Fitch Solutions Macro Research – a unit of Fitch Group

    Solar PV is on track to hit the 2027 forecast by Fitch Solutions Macro Research by the end of this year! Below is the result of a quick and dirty spreadsheet I did, projecting PV new capacity and cumulative installed capacity out to 2030 under low and high growth scenarios. The low growth scenario has manufacturing (new) capcity growing by 10% per year and the high growth scenario has manufacturing capacity growing by 20% per year. Data up to 2020 is actual. This is a disruption in progress and it is going to hit the FF industries like a freight train over the coming years!

  16. Not encouraging. As someone far wiser than I commented recently: “Right now climate policy is a mix of delusion and denial — a hope that low-hanging fruit is all that needs to be picked, and that we can put off everything else till later.”

    Worse, China didn’t even show up at the meeting. What hope do we have?

    EU MEMBER STATES AND LAWMAKERS AT LOGGERHEADS OVER 2030 CLIMATE TARGET

    “We achieved nothing. There is no deal on anything. There’s no progress. That’s really frustrating for me, because I expected that we [would] make some progress this time,” said Michael Bloss, a Green lawmkers from Germany, who is part of the European Parliament’s negotiating team, in a press conference after the negotiations on Friday evening.

    https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/03/30/eu-member-states-lawmakers-loggerheads-2030-climate-target/

  18. So, India’s population = 1.366 billion (2019) and counting. A voice that must be heard!

    NET ZERO TARGETS ARE ‘PIE IN THE SKY’

    India lambasted the richer world’s carbon cutting plans, calling long term net zero targets, “pie in the sky.” Their energy minister said poor nations want to continue using fossil fuels and the rich countries “can’t stop it”.

    “The developed world has occupied almost 80% of the carbon space already, you have 800 million people who don’t have access to electricity. You can’t say that they have to go to net zero, they have the right to develop, they want to build skyscrapers and have a higher standard of living, you can’t stop it.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-56596200

    1. From your link: Trying to lead 197 countries forward on the critical global issue of climate change is not a job for the faint hearted, as the UK is currently finding out.

      Yeah, trying to get 197 countries to do anything is like herding cats. Most will do what they damn well please. But you know what is even harder, trying to herd 7.8 billion cats. It simply cannot be done. That is why I am so damn pessimistic. All these “Save The World” schemes are nothing but pie in the sky. Nothing will ever be done. Even if you could convince 100 million people to do something right, that would still leave 7.7 billion people ignoring your orders and doing what they have always done, trying to survive the best way they can.

    2. Finally someone said ” The emperor has no clothes ” . It was about time .
      Doug, tks for all the links and news you update. Appreciated .

      1. You’re welcome Dude. Here’s another tidbit to warm your heart.

        CLIMATE CHANGE CUT GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY 21% SINCE 1960S

        “The study finds that while global agricultural productivity growth has slowed by about 21% since 1961, areas like Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean that are in warmer climate regions already have experienced slows in growth of 26-34%. The United States seems to be less affected, with slows in growth of approximately 5-15%.”

        https://phys.org/news/2021-04-climate-global-agricultural-productivity-1960s.html

  19. Speaking of getting off fossil fuels. This one dwarfs even Australia’s immense Gorgon gas play!

    RAMIFICATIONS OF CHINA’S LNG DEAL WITH QATAR

    “Qatar was always going to be pre-disposed towards joining the Iran-China-Russia bloc given that it shares its principal hydrocarbons resource asset with neighbouring Iran. This 9,700 square kilometre field is by far the biggest gas resource in the world, holding an estimated 1,800 trillion cubic feet of non-associated natural gas and at least 50 billion barrels of natural gas condensates. Qatar’s 6,000 square kilometre section – the ‘North Dome’ – is the cornerstone to its world-leading LNG exporter statues, whilst Iran’s 3,700 square kilometre section – ‘South Pars – already accounts for around 40 per cent of Iran’s total estimated 33.8 tcm of gas reserves – mostly located in the southern Fars, Bushehr, and Hormozgan regions – and about 75 per cent of its gas production.”

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/The-Real-Ramifications-Of-Chinas-LNG-Deal-With-Qatar.html

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