102 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, July 26, 2023”

    1. Speaking as a sort of backwoods Renaissance man, I’m not willing to accept the first article as gospel, because there are too many variables in play.

      But in principle I think the reasoning put forth is well worthy of serious thought. There’s no doubt in my mind that there’s quite a bit of fire associated with the smoke……. although it is in my opinion not at all likely not the most important single factor in long term economic boom and bust cycles.

      But it rings true to me, as one of and possibly one of the bigger driving forces leading over time to economic depressions. This could be not the straw that breaks the proverbial camel’s back but rather a log added to the staggering camel’s load.

      Now as far as the second link is concerned, I’ve long been of the opinion that most of us are very likely to die hard within the easily foreseeable future, the proximate causes being the Four Horsemen, but the primary underlying causes being environmental collapse and catastrophic depletion of Mother Nature’s one time gift of nonrenewable natural resources …… with oil no doubt being the single lynch pin holding the whole circus of modern day civilization together.

      But some of us in some places are likely to pull thru, by way of taking proactive measures and simply TAKING such remaining resources as can be taken, by force, from people and countries unable to defend themselves.

      A Fortress North America could probably survive, under modernized wartime economic regulations such as were implemented in WWII, with hardly any imported minerals or goods…… given time and the necessary leadership to act BEFORE it’s simply too late.

      But it could be too late already.

      See my next comment for a prime example as to why.

    2. First article-
      “Collapse (too) Might Come Sooner Than Expected”

      For me, it has (will) come much later than expected. I was thinking late 80’s.

  2. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/the-world-needs-a-contingency-plan-for-a-taiwan-war/articleshow/102146214.cms

    I strongly urge everybody to read this article.

    Keep in mind that one of the elementary rules of so called military intelligence is that you never forget what your enemy is or might be capable of doing. Focusing too strongly on the enemy’s intent has a way of resulting in catastrophic results.

    Suppose the Chinese do invade Taiwan.

    Suppose they simply round up skilled workers, technicians and engineers and start dismantling and hauling chip plants back to mainland China.

    What COULD we do about it……. given that we couldn’t possibly get along without computer chips?

    Bombing worked to destroy German and Japanese industrial infrastructure in WWII.

    But we didn’t NEED that infrastructure.

    1. paywall, but a few thoughts on the issue
      -If Taiwan chose too it could disable the chip fab equipment with permanent effect
      -China is much more interested in Taiwan as a guardpost to its shipping lanes and coast, as well as the human capital/unified nation status
      -the disruption of the advanced chip fab industry would be big…5-10 years. It would hurt China too.

      And yes, the US and friends needs to have a decision made now as to how they will respond when it happens. I hope we have some robust evacuation plans for civilians who wish to migrate, assuming the Chinese allow.

      Good book- The Chip War. Background on the history of and status of the industry

    2. We could grind western civilization to a halt for 5 years. It would be like COVID + supply chain issues times 1,000. No new cars, no advanced electronics. Basically nothing new for 5 years. Shortages for 5 more years. It shouldn’t kill us but folks would act like it was.

  3. I can’t see how China could successfully invade Taiwan, even if the US military wasn’t directly involved. An amphibious invasion with no element of surprise over the surface of the Taiwan Strait would be vulnerable to precisely targeted missile, drone, torpedo and artillery fire from the moment the ships left port. The losses to the invaders would be catastrophic before a single landing craft hit the shore. And the Chinese military has exactly zero experience in conducting large scale amphibious operations.

    Still, OFM is right, an attempted invasion of Taiwan could occur, with a risk of nuclear escalation. I never thought the Russians would invade Ukraine. Groupthink in the inner circle of a totalitarian government like China could lead to horribly irrational decision.

    1. It would be an expensive occupation, too, for China; “bombs in baby carriages” hard. It would likely get chemical. China will hold off until it becomes an easier go.

    2. There are likely thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of Chinese agents within Taiwan now.
      They could likely take the airfields from within.

      In related news from last week, TSMC fab plant that is going up in Phoenix will be delayed at least a year since the company is having trouble lining up enough American technical personnel who can do the kind of work that is needed in this industry.
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/20/tsmc-delays-start-of-arizona-chip-factory-that-will-build-apple-chips.html

      1. The USA Navy mantra:

        “THE FREEDOM OF THE SEAS”

        translation:

        “We go wherever we want to…whenever we want to…and you cannot stop us”.

        including ships that we can effortlessly sink….headed for China!!!

  7. The World Bank GDP figures for 2022 came out recently and mostly show a continuing recovery from the 2020 Covid declines, but not enough to change a general downward growth trajectory that is looking likely to hit zero for most countries within the next decade or so.

    The chart below shows ten year trailing average for GDP per capita growth with some linear curve fits shown. There are no particular reasons to chose a ten year average or to expect the curves to follow a linear characteristic but they illustrate the trends and eliminate noise. Europe seems likely to stop growth fairly soon. Note that a trailing average is a lagging indicator so the actual year that zero is reached will be some time before that pointed to by the extrapolated line – in fact this year or nest might well be the actual zero point for many countries. At the rate China is declining it may not be too far behind Europe.

    The indicators for a near term recession are mounting up: yield curves, brown box sales, diesel demand, labour market indicators, transport and shipping industry woes, commercial real estate occupancy, house sales etc. Most articles voicing recession worries are solely about the USA and rarely even consider other economies, or if they do only as they impact the USA, but history does suggest that as goes America so does most of the developed and developing nations.

    The difference this time is likely to be that once in recession it becomes the norm – i.e. most years will show declines with only occasional growth years (the reverse of all years that have been the basis for current economic theory). There is nothing, in particular no new source of cheap energy, that will turn that around. Climate change is starting to have a significant impact on economies and this year’s step change in temperatures will show a marked acceleration – we are getting past the point where a broken window increases GDP, because now we can no longer afford to replace it.

    Social unrest is rising globally and will only increase as food and resource shortages worsen, on top of environmental disasters and deliberate immiseration of the majority by the elites There are several states that have effectively failed, Lebanon, Syria, Sudan, Yemen, Eritrea, Somalia, Haiti, Venezuela, Sri Lanka, and several more on the way, Burundi, Ecuador, Mali, Kenya, Niger, Tunisia, Ethiopia, several small island states (combined these comprise almost 10% of nations). These are generally small to medium sized but what if one of the highly populated countries like Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa, Iran, or Pakistan succumbs to a combination of corrupt and inept elites, environmental pressures (supposed thousand year floods, droughts, heatwaves are now annual occurrences), resource shortages (all those listed are seeing increasing electricity supply blackout periods), demographic issues (not just overpopulation but imbalances between cohorts) and economic decline following decades of mismanagement and can kicking .

    p.s. I highly recommend, especially to readers in the USA, Peter Turchin’s latest book, End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration

    1. Also this:

      Soaring temperatures and food prices threaten violent unrest

      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/soaring-temperatures-food-prices-threaten-103317844.html

      …found that even 18 months after a moderate episode of social unrest a country’s gdp remains 0.2% lower. By contrast, 18 months after a major episode of unrest a country’s gdp remains 1% lower.
      …
      This bodes ill for what is set to be a year of rising food prices, boiling weather and spending cuts. Expect a long, hot, uncomfortable summer.

    2. Interesting perspective. I suppose these things are to be expected as we begin rounding the top.
      Since GDP is such a poor measure of economic health, it would be interesting to see this trend as real income/capita, or some such other indicator.
      Ordered the book.

    3. GDP in the US grew at 2.4% in the second quarter. So there’s healthy GDP growing larger than expected and also inflation came in lower than expected at 2.6 so that’s getting close to the normal 2%. If this is a simp for Trump in 2024, gonna have to do better bro. It’s wild how good Biden has been for the economy and yet there are still people hating on him and wanting to see him fail.

      1. To that point- The Biden manufacturing boom will be hard for even republicans to ignore, try as they will.

        “A surge in manufacturing construction across the country is grabbing the attention of economists and workers on the ground as legislative efforts to reinvigorate the U.S. industrial base are bearing fruit.

        Experts say these changes have been long-awaited, and they represent a watershed moment for U.S. heavy industry and a shift toward more environmentally friendly methods of production amid an ongoing climate emergency.

        “We waited for so long to have these kinds of initiatives,” Miki Banu, a professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Michigan, told The Hill. “This is probably the first time in my life when I’ve seen so many resources become available, which are able to let us put our ideas into practice.”

        https://thehill.com/business/4045941-how-bidens-big-investments-spurred-a-factory-boom/

  8. Friday morning news:

    NO CLIMATE CRISIS AGREEMENT AT G20 ENVIRONMENT MEETING

    “We are not able to reach an agreement of increasing drastically renewable energies, we are not able to reach an agreement on phasing out or down fossil fuels, especially coal.” So we remain stuck with this:

    CO2 — Jul. 27, 2023 422.84 ppm
    CO2 — Jul. 27, 2022 418.37 ppm
    1 Year Change up 4.47 ppm (1.07%)

  9. Top fossil fuel money recipients through their careers:

    Romney, Mitt (R-UT) $8,291,262
    Cornyn, John (R-TX) $4,678,062
    Cruz, Ted (R-TX) $4,138,421
    McConnell, Mitch (R-KY) $2,852,107
    McCarthy, Kevin (R-CA) $2,581,832
    Hutchison, Kay Bailey (R-TX) $2,332,021
    Inhofe, James M (R-OK) $2,320,139
    Pearce, Steve (R-NM) $2,236,714
    Barton, Joe (R-TX) $2,211,987
    Brady, Kevin (R-TX) $2,087,396
    Scalise, Steve (R-LA) $1,847,013
    Murkowski, Lisa (R-AK) $1,792,602

    1. Now list the democrats and the amount of money they received from the trial lawyers. That’s a bunch doing all the can to line their pockets.

      1. Ervin, that just does not make any sense. Why would trial lawyers favor Democrats over Republicans? And why trial lawyers over other types of lawyers? As a general rule, lawyers make a lot of money. And money people usually favor Republicans.

        I get the feeling you just don’t like Democrats, and that is the best thing you could come up with. I think you could do better.

      2. ERVIN,
        If you want to change the subject maybe you should bring some data to the table instead of just inventing things.

  10. https://www.aol.com/news/dozens-whales-die-mass-stranding-054839596.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/16/left-stranded-us-military-sonar-linked-to-whale-beachings-in-pacific-say-scientists

    Some may find this interesting…

    a giant collection of whales died on Australia’s West Coast.

    The USA Navy is conducting research on whether it’s sonar’s are disrupting whale populations.

    What Navy is off Australia’s West Coast that potentially caused this?

    1. I’m glad people are giving some effort to think a little about these things.
      A critique- the vast majority, and this writer as well, is so far off on understanding the scope of the climate disruption and of fossil fuel depletion.
      For example he says “Whereupon you discover that La Guardia is curtailing takeoffs..” He is talking about year 2073. By 2043 I’d be surprised if anything but cargo and short haul electric flights are taking off.

      A radio piece the other day bemoaned the death of coral off the coast of Florida with 100 F ocean temps and climate change. Said “I want to fly down and see them before it is all gone”, not realizing the link between tourism/flight and the death of that ecosystem.

      Death by millimeters, 8.1 Billion everyday.

      1. The airplanes will remain flying, the airports will remain open, right through 2073 and beyond. Flight is essential in the modern world for the intake of immigrants that are necessary to prevent population decline from catastrophically harming our GDP. Also, immigrants enrich our culture, so to deny them settlement in our countries would impoverish us more than just economically. Thus, the airplanes will remain flying, the airports will remain open, right through 2073 and beyond.

        1. “Flight is essential in the modern world ”
          Just because we like it and ‘need’ it does not mean that the energy will be available for flight, except perhaps on an extremely limited scale.
          Unless perhaps you foresee nuclear fusion powered flight. I don’t include that possibility in my thoughts about the future.

        2. Short hop flights on the American East coast are mostly a waste of time and money. The only reason they exist is the failure to invest in high speed rail.

      1. Please google my new book: Contingency Cannibalism, How to Prepare your Neighbors.

        Most folks can cycle a few dozen miles a day with a half decent bike. As long as you can bump into someone every now and then, before they bump into you, you’ll do fine.

      2. ERVIN:
        I did indeed google as you suggested. Wow, big deal it got hot in the summer of 1911 in that particular city. It was hot in the midwest in 1936 too. You must hve missed that one, it was big on Fox news last week.
        Now it’s your turn: Go to this website and look up the names of the 197 major scientific organizations around the world that endorse the science between human activity and the rising temperatures.
        https://www.opr.ca.gov/facts/list-of-scientific-organizations.html
        There’s some interesting issues on this website you might look at too:
        https://www.noaa.gov/climate
        Let me know which of those organizations that you think know less about their own scienfific expertise than you do.
        I’m afraid that for this crowd you will need more than anecdotal comments to impress anyone.

      3. Ervin, on May 15 of this year, a big-ass frost blanketed New England and wiped out most of the apple crop, as the freeze happened smack-dab in the middle of full bloom.

        I’m afraid the New Ice Age is nigh.

    2. Cherry picking, history is 10,000s years long, 20 years is no time at all. For that your willing to place us all into poverty.

      1. How can anyone deny such evidence that just slams them in the face? I see it all the time. Flat earthers deny that the earth is a globe despite overwhelming evidence. Young earth creationists deny an ancient earth in despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Climate deniers get slammed in the face with overwhelming evidence of global warming, but still, they deny, deny, and deny. It boggles the mind.

    3. Looking at that I don’t understand why the new high temperature records aren’t even higher, or maybe why they weren’t being set over the past four or five years. Has it really just been La Nina keeping the extra heat in the Pacific? It suggests the accelerated warming will continue next year and probably beyond. By acceleration I mean not just that next year will be hotter than this as by as much as the difference between last year and this, but by more, and quite a lot more given how fast the curve is rising, and that will continue until the EEI curve flattens out, in which case warming just continues linearly, drops, when warming will start slowing, or goes negative, which is needed to start cooling. Another jump of similar size and we are past the RCP2.6 scenario, but with no sign of the curve reaching an asymptote, but every sign of increasing acceleration. Maybe the next La Nina or some other quasi-cyclic change will show a nice big dip and a slow recovery and long term fall.

      Climate scientist seem in the dark of the exact causes and physical processes; I think we are going to regret not giving them sufficient resources to allow higher fidelity models to be developed and run. I have still not seen an assessment of the impact of the loss of Antarctic sea ice but I think it is the biggest single factor. A loss of one square kilometre at Antarctica has a much bigger effect on the albedo than in the Arctic because it occurs at higher latitudes that are exposed to more direct sunlight and for longer through the year. If the area decrement there continues through its summer the EEI could take another jump upwards (that said the air temperature there has fallen quickly through July – probably another sign of a phase change with the currents and winds there – and ice is growing, however it is so late now that it will be thin and easily melted).

  13. I was looking for some issues to write up for an activist friend of mine and sort of went off the rails but I thought the folks here might like my list:
    It would be cruel to suggest that all Republican voters believe the policies and pronouncements of leading Republican talking heads but, sad to say, even if you believed everything on this list you would be welcome at a ny Republican gathering.
    1. Slavery actually benefitted the slaves.
    2. Trump cares about low-income Americans
    3. The leading world-wide scientific leadership is part of a climate hoax conspiracy
    4. Vaccination is a “Democrat party” tool to control Americans
    5. The IRS spends all its efforts harassing small businesses and ignores wealthy elites
    6. Lowering taxes for big business and the very wealthy benefits working Americans
    7. Church-going politicians know more about women’s health than women and their doctors.
    8. Church-going politicians know more about children’s health than their parents and doctors.
    9. The desperate families attempting to cross the southern border are mostly drug dealers and murderers
    10. People’s rights are being violated when the causes of gun violence are studied
    11. Young people choose to become homosexuals because of a liberal “gay agenda”
    12. Social Security and Medicare are communist-inspired and should be eliminated
    13. Helping poor people makes them lazy.
    14. Affirmative action discriminates against white people.
    15. Anti-monopoly laws lower prices because big companies are more efficient.
    16. Progressive taxes discriminate against the very wealthy
    17. The founding fathers (Franklin, Jefferson, Washington, etc.) intent was to create a Christian nation.
    18. Vaccines contain microchips that can be programmed by 5G networks
    19. Trump won the 2020 election
    20. The attack on the U.S. Capitol on 1/6/20 was “legitimate political discourse”
    21. The FBI, including the registered Republican director, is part of a “deep state” conspiracy favoring Democrats
    22. A long-term con artist, surrounded by disbarred and sanctioned attorneys was a terrific president.
    23. The increasing wealth inequality favoring the top 1% is a result of Democratic policies increasing the size of the government.

    1. Critical thinking is key for many aspects of life and an important skill for university study across a range of disciplines. No matter what you’re studying, you’ll likely be required to use critical thinking to interpret and analyse information. Strong critical thinking skills can help you form better arguments in your assessments, as you’ll be required to engage with materials – not just regurgitate your textbooks.

      If you’d like to improve your critical thinking in preparation for your studies, these strategies can help you hone these skills to support a successful academic life.

      Don’t Believe Everything You’re Told

      Don’t Believe Everything You Think

      Ask Questions

      Research Deeper

      Evaluate Your Work

      https://www.unilodge.com.au/blog/how-to-develop-critical-thinking#:~:text=The%20first%20step%20to%20critical,has%20to%20support%20their%20argument.

        1. Never thought that for a second, I know you better than that. Just pointing out what I think is the number one reason for all 23. You nailed the highlights.

          “If you’d like to improve your critical thinking”

          My entire comment was a copy and paste exercise from the link. Not meant to be directed at you. Sorry, my error.

    2. Movie Sound of Freedom is seeing a big boost in morale for the Qtards/those with Qtism; I’m not sure what’s considered polite these days.
      The film is a grift. It had a budget of 15 million; on the screen it looks like 2, 3 million tops. That’s a Hollywood hustle; the line producer and the lead split the budget surplus.
      As well, the movies protagonist is Tim Ballard. A known Qtard grifter. The movie is a grift about a grifter.

      I’ve never seen so many loud stupid fucks in my life.

      1. Our wingpawn friends:

        “By studying them, I asked questions about their agency: What did they choose to do in a life that offered them so few choices”

      2. OK, so you give a thumbs down to Sound of Freedom. Now write a review for Barbie.

        1. Sound of Freedom only has appeal to those whose political views it reinforces; “My goodness this is self validating entertainment!”

          I give it 2 Adrenochromes out of 5.

          Shitty movies happen all the time, it’s the loud stupid fucks that seem novel. Seems a new sort.

          Barbie is for little girls dude.
          You burn yours yet?

          1. Burned my Barbie right after I poured all my Bud Light down the toilet.

            1. “down the drain”
              Unless you stole it you paid AB for it. That’s all they care about.

            2. Cargo culting masculinity with consumer preferences. Kinda pathetic.

              Reminds me of those dudes who started dressing like bikers and open carrying Bowie knives when Sons of Anarchy got popular, and who are now looking like cowboys cuz of Yellowstone. Very affected.

              Closest I can do for a Barbie review is what I heard from my neighbor’s kid earlier today. They liked it; super funny; very wholesome.

              To paraphrase a 12 year old; the theme was perhaps something along the lines of ‘patriarchy can be stifling for everyone, including men.’

              Is this what they were talking about in the Parisian salons, children’s movies and light American beer? Very embarrassing.

            3. Survivalist:
              “Is this what they were talking about in the Parisian salons, children’s movies and light American beer? Very embarrassing.”
              OUCH!
              I felt that as a well earned indictment of the bulk of public dialog today. Sometimes when I see what the supposed news media obsesses about I think there is no hope for this sorry excuse for a culture. Who was it that said “The US is the first society to go from barbarism to decadence without passing through civilization?”

  14. There’s a “new normal” emerging globally, in terms of just about everything important.
    Climate, water, minerals, population, energy, food, you name it.

    And the most dangerous new norm may be that pretty soon a number of powerful countries will decide the time is right for aggressive war on their neighbors.

    Ten or twenty years back I would have laughed at the possibility of Putin engaging in hot war in Ukraine. I would have laughed at the possibility of a trump clown president.

    Now, we see articles such as this one…….. and The Economist isn’t exactly a war mongering outfit.
    https://www.economist.com/china/2023/07/27/what-war-mobilisation-might-look-like-in-china

    1. I think economics is the big issue.
      Drilling is pretty expensive if you want to go deep enough to reach temperatures hot enough to generate power. These guys are clearly trying to parley the fracking technology of horizontal drilling into this use but I think they have to go a lot deeper to get enough heat except in areas with volcanic potential! One source I found said that drilling to 4 kilometers was needed to reach at least 100 degC. That’s pretty inefficient I would guess. Thermal system efficiency is proportional to the difference between the “source” and “sink” temperatures. Modern fossil and nuclear plants generaly have steam temperatures over 900 degF. If you don’t have a source above 5 or 6 hundred degrees you will need a lot of flow to generate any power but at least the heat source is free! Where I live, in Sonoma county CA, we get a pretty large fraction of our juice from geothermal as it is pretty close to the surface. I suppose when all other sources rise in cost this technology may be viable, but unlikely now to me.

  17. The people we’re depending on, politically, meaning the Democratic Party/ leftish leaning academic establishment, the liberal press, etc, apparently all have their heads up their backside when it comes to REALITY, the reality that’s perfectly obvious to anybody with a basic university level grasp of the physical and life sciences.

    This is a fairly long read.
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinas-great-leap-backward-much-160001055.html

    There IS a hell of a lot of useful info in it, and I didn’t personally realize just how far along China is in terms of peak population.

    I take it as given that all the regulars here know the SALON as a liberal outfit that generally supports responsible environmental policies, good public policies, etc.

    So…….. I didn’t read it carefully, but I read it all, and unless I missed it, there’s not even a short paragraph in it alluding to the economic and environmental CATASTROPHE that would result with continued population growth in China, as well as elsewhere of course.

    We regulars here [ are well aware of the climate issue, the one time gift of nature depleting supply of various minerals, etc. No need to go into this.

    Solving the economic problems associated with empty buildings and a shrinking work force is a kindergarden level problem compared to hitting the Seneca Cliff associated with continued growth over the long term.

    It may already be too late. China, as well as many other overpopulated countries, may collapse economically and environmentally well before shrinking populations can take the pressure off the environment.

    But IF China survives, in the short to middle term, and the Chinese population shrinks sufficiently over the rest of this century………… The survivors will OWN whatever exists within China’s borders. An empty house is no problem whatsoever compared to the LACK of a house. They won’t be needing a lot of new roads, schools, hospitals, factories, etc.

    A shrinking work force will still be adequate to produce the goods and services NEEDED by that same shrinking population.

    But of course it’s pretty much political suicide to even MENTION anything good about shrinking populations in the mainstream media…… because even the typical well educated liberal doesn’t seem to know shit from apple butter about the actual PHYSICAL realities we’re up against.

    Some days I think I might actually live long enough to see most or maybe even the whole world go to hell in a hand basket.

    1. Elderly and the very young don’t so so well in a famine. I’d recommend a food hoard and keeping a very low profile.

      1. I know a few folks who keep a six month food stash, and are prepared to seldom if ever leave their house in the event of major civil unrest such as riots.

        I have a months food at least, and at the first real sign of trouble, I would be loading my truck at various stores BEFORE the crowds arrive. Plus I’m on a farm, with the equipment, and have enough stuff to raise my own food for a few years if this becomes absolutely necessary.

        An acre or two of corn and beans plus a smaller field of potatoes and onions, etc, will keep a man a year no problem at all if there’s even a fifty percent harvest. Plus I could salt down a ton or two of beef or hit Walmart and buy a truck load of canning jars and get a neighbor or two over for a share and put up enough meat to last four or five years in three or four days. We did all that sort of thing back when I was a kid, for a year’s supply at a time. I hoed corn by hand, planted it by hand, harvested it by hand, shelled it by hand and ground meal out of it with a hand powered mill as well, just to use the old mill for old times sake. But we carried our corn to a miller who ground and bagged it for us for a share.

        If the shit hits the fan, I’ll have at least a ton of salt, which will be worth more than an equivalent amount of cash in the form of gold coins. A safe full of rifle and pistol ammo, with some of it going into sealed plastic containers with “stay dry” buried in the woods in the event of real trouble. This will be worth more than gold cash equivalent too. I keep enough diesel fuel on hand to run my farm tractor for subsistence farming only for four or five years.

        But…………

        Where I am, I strongly doubt there will be any serious violence within my lifetime. This backwoods hillbilly community is full of trump types of course, and the local culture from way on back is such that even preachers and little old ladies have their own personal firearms.

        People who might head this way in a disaster scenario looking to loot wouldn’t get very far at all.
        And contrary to the usual rhetoric about trump types going proactive and leaving home to create trouble………. if there’s REAL trouble, ninety eight percent of them will STAY HOME in this rural area in order to safeguard their OWN homes and farms.

        If the cops aren’t answering the phone, or there’s no phone to answer, every other old guy I know would shoot to kill if he decides it’s an him or me situation, in order to protect his family.
        And at least half the others would fire a couple of warning shots, and if necessary, shoot to cripple a looter.

        I don’t think I will live to see this sort of thing in my neck of the woods, but I’m willing to believe it’s a real possibility in some areas, especially around some of the bigger cities where work is scarce or unavailable if the social safety net comes apart…….. meaning no food stamps, no rental assistance, etc.

        I can’t estimate the annual risk of such troubles any better than any body else, but my guess is that the annual risk for NOW is no more than two percent. Ten years down the road it might be thirty or more percent.

    2. I can understand why the folks at the top of the pyramid scheme consider population decline an economic doomsday, but if the economy were declining at 1% per annum while population were declining at 2%, aside from distribution disparity, why would this be a catastrophe? Average wealth would be increasing.

      1. Bob, I suppose that scenario could happen in some fortunate countries (maybe). I’d call the the lucky scenario.
        On the other hand, it is wealth destruction through shortage of basic necessities of living and resultant rising costs that will force population down in most of the world countries, I suspect.

  18. I didn’t mention in my previous comment that you can get a degree in dozens of very popular fields from most universities these days without taking even ONE serious course in the sciences.

    A survey course or two will get you your sheepskin in law, business administration, finance, banking, insurance, and the liberal arts.

  23. Prof. Eliot Jacobson
    @EliotJacobson
    We did it! Here’s what we missed while we were sleeping.
    Before this year, the highest recorded 2-meter surface temperature for the Arctic was 5.694°C on July 26, 2020.
    This year:
    July 26: 5.696°C
    July 27: 5.813°C
    July 28: 5.907°C (42.63°F).
    Yay for us f&%king humans!

  25. In the past and up until fairly recently I’ve been on record as saying that January 6 was the high water mark for Trumpsters and Qtards. I was probably a bit snooty about it. Nonetheless, I fear I may soon recant. Retired General Mike Flynn is attempting to stoke pizzagate again and is giving kudos to Ron Watkins. It’s in his twitter. The Republican primary is gonna be a social media train wreck. Let’s hope peaceful transfers of power prevail.

    1. Finally

      America is living in pre 1939 Germany. Human behavior hasn’t changed in the last hundred years, only the names.

      Guns- check
      Propaganda- check
      Book bands- check
      Superior race- check
      Deamination- check
      Lawlessness- check
      Cult like savior- check
      Ignorance- check
      Revenge- check

      “What Caused Germany to Start Another War?

      But long before the depression, and years before Hitler came to power, there were two groups of Germans who were determined not to accept Germany’s defeat in the first World War as final. These were, first, the officers, especially the higher officers, of the old professional army, and second, the heads of some of the big industrial organizations and trusts, especially the munitions manufacturers.

      These groups, however, had no very large support among the German people until the National Socialist (Nazi) Party was formed. This party was founded and headed by men with great skill in political organization and in arousing resentful feelings among the masses.

      belief that the Germans are a superior race, the “master race” of the world, who have a right and a duty to extend their power and impose their ideas and their kind of civilization upon all other and “inferior” peoples.

      playing upon these ideas and feelings and by arousing hatred against Jews, bankers, Communists”

      https://www.historians.org/about-aha-and-membership/aha-history-and-archives/gi-roundtable-series/pamphlets/em-10-what-shall-be-done-about-germany-after-the-war-(1944)/what-caused-germany-to-start-another-war

    2. Agree with you two.
      Buckle up.
      Romanov is an example of the propaganda minister of science.
      Studied up on Readers Digest.
      Passed the loyalty oath over on magaQ.

      I will also at to the list
      -a sense of desperation
      -extreme mental vulnerability

    1. The unpredictable non-linear effects of climate change is kicking in thick and fast. Crazy stuff.

      1. I think it’s telling that humans can discuss non-linearity, quantify it, predict it, and yet still not conceive what it really means.

  27. Question for you guys who are into math and graphs.
    Every industry that’s growing fast eventually reaches a point where the market for the product is more or less saturated, and when this happens, the various manufacturers either consolidate or go out of business, for a lack of enough customers.

    This assumes of course more or less normal economic times.

    So…….. the solar manufacturing business is growing by leaps and bounds, and if Old Man Business As Usual stays on his feet, someday there won’t be enough demand to keep all the factories busy.

    What I’m interested in at the moment is anybody’s estimate of how long that might be coming to pass.

    Thanks in advance!

    1. I don’t think you can compare that idustry to, say, Barbie dolls. Solar panels have drivers different from most products, e.g. political agendas, extreme environmental changes, convenience vs stability vs price points and more.
      At one level the demand for solar panels could be near infinite given depletion of natural gas or coal, even in specific locations. It may not matter some day if Russia has natural gas if it is hidden under the molten glass caused by multiple nuclear explosions.
      Assuming business as usual ( and that’s no fun) given something like normal technological innovation in manufacturing technology and persistance of reasonable sources of other power technologies I would assume continued modest growth in that market for many decades. Much of the work going to slave labor in Xinjiang Uyghur camps. Profits to elite communists, of course.

  28. I failed to save the link but a couple of days ago I read a piece in a major business magazine online to the effect that the owners of electric cars are spending as much to charge them as it would cost them to buy gasoline.

    Maybe so……. in a few places where electricity is extremely expensive, and if the driver uses charging stations just about all the time.

    But otherwise, it sounds like bullshit to me. ?????

    1. I live in an area where both electricity and gasoline prices are near the nation’s highest, Sonoma County CA.
      My car is a Chevy Volt which I drive using electricity for maybe 90% of my driving. Driving an average of about 500 miles/month between 2017 and 2020 I was saving about $25 or 5 cents per mile. I stopped calculating after GM stopped sending me detailed data on how many miles I drove on each source and how many kWh I used.
      I calculated each month using the current cost of electricity and the current cost of regular gasoline. I have no idea what the price ratio of gasoline to kWh is in other places or how efficient my car is compared to others. But I like the car and am happy with the savings. It’s probably my last car if it keeps running as it has.

    2. My wife charges up at home, and our equivalent gasoline cost would be just under $1.50/g
      Right now it selling for 4.90+ here. But she just about never has to charge out in public.

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