108 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, July 10, 2021”

  1. Haven’t been around home to comment on POB. Here is a belated report on our heat wave on northern Vancouver Island. It was bad. Where I live near Johnstone Strait there was absolutely no wind, which is beyond unusual. It hit 40 deg for two days, and in the high 30s for several more. The only cooling we ever use are a few ceiling fans….but usually we have very big westerlies and don’t need anything…not even window screens. Today, blowing 30 kts, tomorrow and Monday 35kts forecast. For example, at 10:00am it is 16 deg today. During the heat it would have been 34 and climbing. Anyway, the first hot morning I remembered an abandoned AC window unit in my son’s storage shed. I scored it at 6:00am and had it all installed and running in an hour.

    I never thought I would live to see the day we would ever ever use ac cooling. We don’t even have it in a vehicle. I live on a river and it was too hot in the sun for people to even swim. Not one kayaker. Too hot to go out on the water for anything.

    We just got back from down Island two days ago; Fanny Bay area, below Courtenay. The Baynes Sound oyster operations are wiped out for this year. The oysters cooked on the lines and beaches. For a week the beach neighbourhoods smelled like rotting fish and meat. It will recover with cooler temps but what a wake up call. It was a shocking 5 days or so.

    Our river is snow fed so the water is still quite cool. Borderline for a swim. There is an adequate flow. The river is also full of salmon fry and looking good. That is not the case for down Island streams. It looks like a light rain is possible towards the end of next week, so we all have our fingers crossed.

    The day Lytton burned I dug out my fire pump and hooked it all up. Test ran it and pumped water for twenty minutes. If we ever do get a fire around here it might save our home. The water table is still very high and water is running down into my pond via a drainage ditch. We’ll see in a month if it holds? This is very uncharted for all of us

    Our local forestry behemoth is still hauling logs on early shift. So, a few trucks and loaders are working, maybe 10% of the crew? They shut down by noon. It is probably safer to get the decked logs down to the beach than leave them in the bush. I would expect all off paved road travel will be banned in short order. Because of the fires in BC interior our highways are full of RVs. Vancouver folks are coming here and Islanders are staying put. Covid is a non issue here these days so we will see if there is any change with increased tourist numbers.

    Hope all are well on POB.

    1. Paulo , good to hear from you . I can understand what you must be undergoing having lived in New Delhi at +45 degree temperatures for weeks . You are lucky with the river . The river Yamuna in Delhi is now just a sewage canal . Still wonder about Doug Leighton since he was +75 and lives near the Vancouver area ( I think so ) . Take care and be well .

      1. I cannot even imagine those temperatures. I think Doug is closer to Kamloops, but not sure. I hope he is well, too.

        1. Hole in Head, Paulo,

          Doug Leighton lives in the North Okanagan, roughly as Paulo says: in the same part of BC as Kamloops. The area is semi-arid and preparation for wildfire is his principal occupation right now along with his neighbors. He’s helping some who need it.

  2. Hickory is going to find this irritating , but the truth must be told .
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODJbRrB7cJo&t=67s&ab_channel=TheWire
    For perspective 2.5 million dead is the total wipeout of the Baltic nations of Estonia and Latvia . I have been constantly harping about the UNDERESTIMATION of damage that Covid has caused to the economic system . This will be dwarfed by what will happen when peak oil blooms ( it is right now in motion but not bloomed ) .

    1. Where you and I differ on this topic is that you have proclaimed Covid to be the cause of terminal global economic depression (whereas I think that is more likely to come from energy shortage and/or the chaos of human in-fighting).
      Conversely, I say the Covid pandemic is severe but that the most likely scenario is a global recovery to exceed prior pre-covid GDP levels before 2022 is over. This pertains roughly to energy demand as well.

      The tragedy is that some nations, and generally the poorest of the world, are being hit so hard.
      GDP is a not a good measure of the economic (mis)fortunes of the poorest.
      They are always in the most fragile position and will be last to have access to vaccination.
      They will also be the first to lose access to fossil fuel energy when the prices start to escalate.

      Pretty amazing that in just 6 months of vaccination that over 3 billion doses have been administered. And in 12 more months the global effort will be closing in on the late phase.
      In the USA last 6 months 99.6% of the deaths have been among those who have not yet been vaccinated.
      All bets are off if certain variants emerge (not covered by existing vaccines, more lethal, more contagious, for example). People who refuse vaccination are in effect hoping for new variants.

      1. Hi Hickory,

        In the USA last 6 months 99.6% of the deaths have been among those who have not yet been vaccinated.

        Can you send me the source of this data please.

        1. Comes from the US Center for Disease Control-
          https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/07/01/995-of-people-killed-by-covid-in-last-6-months-were-unvaccinated-data-suggests/?sh=ad2cc79493da

          Not surprising, given how well the vaccinations of Moderna and Pfizer [mrna] performed in the large trials of efficacy, and those are the vaccines that most Americans have had.

          Other examples of similar news-
          “Maryland reported this week that 100% of those who died from coronavirus there in June had not been vaccinated, while more than 93% of those with new cases or who were hospitalized were similarly unprotected.” confirmed by Republican Governor of Maryland L. Hogan
          “99.2% of US Covid deaths in June were unvaccinated, says Fauci”

          1. I read yesterday that many people are not getting a vaccination because they did not want Biden to reach his vaccination goal. Then, add in the anti vaxxer types and religious zealots and I would be surprised if the US makes 75%. The wild card is if people start to die in bigger numbers…in red states.

            1. Darwin taking control.
              Might make homo sapiens more fit.
              But, with 7.7 billion in a collapsing ecosystem, Hickory is probably correct.

        2. Iron Mike see

          https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-19-infections-exceedingly-rare-full-vaccination-cdc/story?id=77898840

          10,262 breakthrough cases of 101 million and 10% of the 10,261 were hospitalized, so 1026/101 million=0.001% of fully vaccinated people get sick enough from covid for require a hospital stay. Not sure where Hickoy’s data comes from.

          Looked up total US deaths from Dec 31, 2020 to April 30, 2021 at link below

          https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

          Total was 224088 over that 4 month period.

          At link below it was reported that 160 fully vaccinated people had died in the US over that period from CDC data.

          https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm

          160/224088=0.007%, so 100-0.007=99.93% of deaths from Covid 19 in the US from Jan 1 to April 30, 2021 were people who were not fully vaccinated. There may be newer data, in fact there is with 988 deaths of people that were fully vaccinated through July 6, 2021, of these 255 were people that had no covid symtoms or otherwise died from causes besides covid19, so 733 covid deaths of those who had been fully vaccinated. Total covid deaths from Jan 1 to July 6 are 253740 in US, so 99.7% of US deaths for about the last 6 months were people who were not fully vaccinated.

          https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

          1. There is a part of this story that is not being told, as if it doesn’t exist. It does, as highlighted by the video I linked to in the previous thread. Dr. Joseph Varon of Houston, Texas and Dr. Paul Marik of Norfolk, Virginia lost less than 10% of their covid patients a half to a third less than the national or the global average. These doctors refused to accept the mantra that this disease cannot be treated and that supportive care only should be the standard of care. One case in the video is about Dr.Manuel Espinoza, a urologist from Edinburg, Texas. He was airlifted to Varon’s hospital after deteriorating badly in a hospital closer to home and recovered following treatment. The stories of successful treatment are not being told or if they are they are treated as “miracles”! They are not miracles, they are the result of doctors using all the knowledge, experience and resources at their disposal instead of waiting on edicts from on high before treating patients. What Dr. Varon and Dr. Marik have done is not secret. In fact they have tried their best to share their experience but, they are not getting much of an audience in the developed world.

            In poorer countries with little prospect of getting to vaccination numbers anywhere near the US or the UK anytime soon, the treatment option is one they cannot ignore. Even in India, a major manufacturing point for the Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccines, the state of Uttar Pradesh instituted a test, trace and treat (TTT) program to achieve the results in the graphic below. What “medicines” were in the treatment kit? This Twitter post shows a newspaper page with a kit used in the neighboring state of Uttarakhand, a state with a graph that is similar to that of Uttar Pradesh. Is it the same kit? It appears that nobody’s interested in how these states got new case counts down so quickly.

          1. Iron Mike,

            Happy to help, your question made me curious so I looked it up. I have friends in the medical profession and had heard very few covid cases in hospitals were people that had been fully vaccinated, but has never seen the data.

            1. “”In Texas County Memorial Hospital in Houston, Missouri, hospital leaders say half the number of Covid-19 deaths they’ve seen since the start of this year — eight in total — occurred over the past week.
              A little more than 23% of the county’s population has received at least one Covid-19 vaccine dose, according to hospital spokesperson Helania Wulff. And the county, now labeled as “very high” risk, saw its positivity test rate jump from 9.5% last week to more than 30% this week, Wulff said.
              Lauren Toman, the hospital’s director of respiratory care, said that while during previous surges patients tended to be older and have preexisting conditions, patients now are younger and healthier — but are coming in sicker and getting worse more quickly.
              “They rapidly decline, very fast, and then even after intubation we’ll see them rapidly decline and unfortunately we are seeing people passing quicker than before,” Toman told CNN.
              All the patients she has worked with in recent weeks have been unvaccinated, Toman said. ….”

              https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/13/us/us-covid-hot-spots-hospitals/index.html

              Here in the Western NC Bible belt, I’m seeing every excuse and all sorts of misinformation being used to discourage vaccinations, much of it from middle aged part-timers and younger folks. I tried to inject some real data into the discussion on a local board and was pretty viscously attacked. Those threads ended up being closed. See No Evil, Hear No Evil………
              The good news is that the retirement age and high risk people seem to be quietly going about getting vaccinated. Vaccination availability is high, mainly the Moderna vaccine.
              We’re staying home for the most part, as we always have, but when we go out we are seeing little effort to prevent the spread. Our population more than doubles this time of year; summer homers and vacationers, many from areas with low vaccination rates. Hard to determine how much that is affecting infection rates because the County stopped tracking and reporting efforts. The head of our County health dept. was asked to resign some months ago because she was making data available online. She was one of the only truly qualified professionals in County government here. Can’t have that.

            2. Big Media Belt

              A CNN link…

              I don’t own or watch tv or its news, except in limited quantity (before it annoys/nauseates/poisons me) sometimes when it’s on someone else’s. When I do, I can understand this quote:

              “Everytime I look at the news, I listen to it, I see its absurdity…” ~ Russell Brand

              “…patients now are younger and healthier — but are coming in sicker and getting worse more quickly.” ~ ghung

              What a coincidence, ay? Such as if one reason to avoid a vaccine could be because one is young and healthy and the disease is far less likely to fatally affect them?

              Maybe time to (yet again?) morph the narrative or viral variant.

              “I tried to inject some real data into the discussion on a local board and was pretty viscously attacked. ” ~ ghung

              Perhaps you needed to dilute your viscosity so as not to provoke those kinds of attacks?

              Seriously, though, what is the real data, local board and what were the vicious attacks?

              See also my recent comment, appropriately entitled, ‘Big Zombie‘. Linked for your convenience.

      2. Hicks , a simple question . Will the world economy be ever pre covid ? If yes , when ? If no, then we are in agreement . Your comment is not very clear on this .

        1. Covid has been a a more short term and terrible diversion from a greater threat, which (imho) would be mass migration due to climate change. What happens if you plant and it doesn’t grow? On the Prarries this summer the surplus we take for granted and export, is questionable.

          We are at 80% plus first dose on Vancouver Island, population around 850K….maybe a bit less. and 2nd doses advancing rapidly. The disease has now declined to the point where there are no longer news conferences about it, plus it is hard to find recent data. The north half of the Island might have 1-2 cases. But guess what? Most people still wear masks in the stores out of respect for workers and those customers with just one dose. I pack one with me same as before and I have been fully vaccinated for some time. We are also under immense pressure to open our border with US. Not going to happen for a while, and when it does it will be to those fully vaccinated with verification.

          From the WA Post: Public opinion surveys show many Canadians would be happy to keep them in place for a few more months.

          The longer the border stays closed, some analysts have said, the longer it will take for travel and cross-border relations to go back to normal.

          “I think that U.S.-Canada relations are still damaged from the Trump administration,” Trautman said, “and so I do think that some of what we’re seeing on the border in terms of the Canadian approach, in my opinion, is not just about the virus. There’s some other stuff going on there as well.”

          There is a looming Federal election and it would be political suicide for Trudeau to open the border until the vaccination rate really goes up in both countries, despite Canada being #1 in world with 1st dose. Plus, people are sitting back and watching the variants increase in southern states. Until the trend is clear, the border will be staying closed.

          And why do I think Covid is just a trial run and lesser threat? I am back to the heat wave news and what is happening right now in US southwest states. The heat wave is rebuilding and intensifying. What would happen if scads of people just picked up stakes and streamed north? Right now our immigration policy is quite fixed with rigid criteria, but in a climate emergency? There will be no stopping people if they rush for the exits. Syria and North Africa are recent examples.

          Something to think about, anyway. Not worry over, but simply to consider.

          1. “The threat of climate change is too grave for us to continue thinking that we can work our way around it without major (revolutionary) changes that will radically alter the very social fabric beyond capitalism and statecraft. ”

            We will see—-

            1. Is that a quote ripped from your playbook on how to make America a communist nation?

            2. “The threat of climate change is too grave for us to continue thinking that we can work our way around it …..”
              …..at all. Baked in,, as are the consequences. Too many Stevens……

            3. Do right wing zealots really believe there are any communists running around loose and that they are a threat to civilization or do they just say really stupid things like that to exasperate anyone actually thinking?

            4. Good question JJHMAN.
              I sometimes wonder how they could so proudly take such ignorant positions, and other times I believe much of it purposeful- a form of desperation.

          2. Paulo- Thats an keen observation that you offer up – “a greater threat, which (imho) would be mass migration due to climate change.”

            Not sure I see just that way, but then again we sit on opposite sides of a border. From down here in the “United” States, the idea of internal mass migration and mass migration from Latin America seems secondary to something else that may happen first, as a bigger risk.

            We are at risk for severe social disorder here in states. A breakdown along tribal lines well before global warming gets moving in larger numbers than are already coming north from Latin America. The fissures were stoked by Trump, but regardless of his existence the fire is smoldering. The problem is a wealthy country that has big risk of becoming unwealthy- the discontented and disenfranchised proportion could double or triple. The trigger could be peak energy, or peak credit, or simply faulty thinking that juices the fire to full alert destructive level.
            The divides are intense- urban vs rural, have vs have-nots, white supremacists vs the rest, Believers (Q-Anon/Trumpers/FundamentalistReligions) vs Reality based thinkers, Fascist Nationalism vs Democratic Humanists. Take your pick, but we have a fragile union here. Realize that if Trump and his people had made a more competent move to suppress democracy this last winter- the dust would still be rising higher than any mountains. It would not have been tolerated by even the most peaceable persons. The military, the national guard and the police would have to be picking sides. Most would side with their families.

            Basically, I’m saying that breakdown of the social order here in the states could come well before mass migration due to climate change. Canada would be wise to have a strong border policy either way.

  3. Apparently, the hurricane season is going to be Rock’n Roll. So much for the extration of oil in GOM. As for previous hyper active years, the first hurricane coming from the main development region appeared before the beginning of July. Everything will be ready for the beginning of last week of July : a large area of Atlantic will be above 26°C, a temperature conducive for the development of tropical phenomena, the windshear is going to decrease with the evolution of ENSO toward La NIna state and above Africa a rising air area at upper level will arrive which will enhance African Monsoon and increase the possibilities of development of strong tropical waves evolving after into tropical phenomena. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3-wbSF_HP4

  5. According to the U.K. Gridwatch website, as of Aug 12 noontime today the 25,000 MW multi billion dollar wind installed capacity has NOT REACHED over 1,000 MW for the past 48 hours. This at a time when at the height of summer the solar capacity is barely exceeding 50%, and then only for a hour or so. Please explain how 24,000 MW sitting idle day after day is the cheapest source of electricity.

    1. Ervin- when you install equipment with a roughly 30 yr lifespan (that is the number the utilities use when analyzing projects costs and getting financing- like a 30 yr mortgage on a house), you determine performance based on an average over time, not on any one day.
      For example, you wouldn’t say that a nuclear plant is worthless, when it is down for maintenance. On average nuclear plants are down over 10% of the time.
      You wouldn’t say a solar panel is worthless just because it goes dead at night.

      Of course non-coal sources of power have their shortfalls- wind, solar and nuclear all have their down times and that must be taken into account with system planning.

      If you want to understand it a little more-
      https://www.carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar-are-30-50-cheaper-than-thought-admits-uk-government

    2. Ervin –

      If wind is exceeding 50% in the low season, it’s doing well. US capacity factor for coal plants was 40 % in 2020. In the UK it was nearly zero.

      Even if the wind power guys are losing money, wind power can be sold cheaper than coal, because the wind itself is free. That’s one of the major market advantages of renewables — you can’t win market share from them by cutting prices as long as you need fuel to run your generator.

      This is a phenomenon very familiar in the chip business. You build a forge to produce the next generation of chips and for while you make great money. The chips are dirt cheap to make but you have to pay off the factory. Things are swell until some other guy builds a forge with the same capabilities, and a merciless price war starts.

      And software is even worse.

      This kind of economics is coming to the energy industry. It used to be one of the most profitable of all, but this kind of economics and putting an end to that.

      Another thing that makes renewables inherently cheap is their widespread availability. With coal and oil, you have haves and have-nots, with the haves making a killing off the have-nots. Decentralizing production drains all the profit out of the business. For example New Jersey imports a lot of gas from Pennsylvania. If they build out their wind power, it will ruin the profits of gas producers, even if it doesn’t put them out of business.

      That is why coal companies have been bribing lobbying Midwestern politicians so assiduously in recent years. All those fossil-fuel-poor windy states are cutting their coal imports drastically.

      1. I clearly stated the it was the solar farms that barely exceeded 50% and summer is certainly not the off season. The wind farms were and still at this writing preforming at 4%. of the rated capacity. As your well aware solar and wind have first inline privileges so when the wind blows or the sun shines if a coal plant is running it is forced off line. Right now on the PJM distribution system the load is 123,085 MW. The contribution from wind is 850 MW. The supply from coal 33,138 MW. I have seen in March the wind supply reached up to 9000 MW but the system load was 79,000 MW. This situation repeats every year. So every summer the PJM system reaches peak loads and wind power is rarely available so the coal and nat gas plants have to perform. Several weeks ago one afternoon the PJM system needed 2300 MW of oil generated power. Look at this way. Have a business with 100 employees and you pay them all but on average 30 or 40 of them will ever work.. Thats wind and solar.

        1. Ervin, 4%? Where do you get your numbers from? Here are some big picture stats from the University of Michigan:

          The capacity factor of a wind turbine is its average power output divided by its maximum power capability. On land, capacity factors range from 0.26 to 0.52. The average 2018 capacity factor for projects built between 2014 and 2017 was 41.9%. In the U.S., the fleetwide average capacity factor was 35%.

          https://css.umich.edu/factsheets/wind-energy-factsheet

          1. Ervin is looking at the current ‘daily’ capacity stats for the electric grid in the UK.

            He’s not looking at cumulative or long-term numbers, just what was showing at the time he looked. The 12-month capacity factors are 35%-46% depending on the source.

            Right now, looking at production, the grid is powered by wind 10.7%, solar 20%, Coal 1%, Gas 34%, etc.

  6. Sigh, not just the Amazon, it seems, no matter where you look, agricultural trumps the environment. I can see it here where land area devoted to cattle ranching increases relentlessly, probably doubling in last ten years.

    RISE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA FOREST CLEARANCE INCREASING GREENHOUSE GASES

    Forest clearance in Southeast Asia is accelerating, leading to unprecedented increases in carbon emissions. They are being cut down at increasingly higher altitudes and on steeper slopes to make way for agricultural intensification. As a result, more than 400 million metric tons of carbon are released into the atmosphere every year as forests are cleared in the region, with emissions figures increasing in recent years. “Loss of these forests will be a devastating blow for nature and will further accelerate climate change.”

    https://phys.org/news/2021-07-southeast-asia-forest-clearance-greenhouse.html

    1. Jared Diamond (Guns, Germs and Steel). “The worst mistake in the history of the human race,” he called it in a 1987 essay. “With agriculture came the gross social and sexual inequality, the disease and despotism, that curse our existence.”

        1. Mark, I’ve cut you some slack but it’s now time to hit the ignore button. I’ll glean what you’re saying from others’ patient, thoughtful replies to your comments…

        2. “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
          ― George Orwell, 1984

        3. “Agriculture created jared diamond which is worst of all”

          What a despicable comment.

          “In 2005, Diamond was ranked ninth on a poll by Prospect and Foreign Policy of the world’s top 100 public intellectuals.” (wiki)

          1. LMAO that there’s a list of the “world’s top 100 public intellectuals.” 😄ROFLMFAO that there are “people” who actually take such a list seriously. 🤣

            1. Anyone who voted for Trump has zero credibility.
              That is putting it gently.

    2. “agricultural trumps the environment”
      Yep- its a vastly bigger problem than global warming.
      Talk about habitat destruction.

      “Globally agricultural land area is approximately five billion hectares, or 38 percent of the global land surface”
      And that land is generally the most abundant and diverse for most forms of wildlife, not just humans and their crops. We have taken over 95% of the productive capacity of the best lands for ourselves.
      Same trend with rivers, estuaries, delta waters and other fertile offshore waters.
      Thats what 7.9 billion people will do.

      I understand sexual desire, from massively abundant personal experience, but not the idea that we must pass along our genes. I could care less about that.

      1. Yep- its a vastly bigger problem than global warming.

        It is directly linked to global warming wouldn’t you say.

        Doug the land clearing rates in Australias east coast is unbelievable too, sometimes i don’t know whats worse, our species or covid.

    1. I found that he coverage of this topic by this commentator was some form of a political statement.
      Heavily right wing.
      Trumps people will be studying it.
      People who are not savvy to being manipulated will swallow it whole, and not realize that they have been fed a political message.
      Ex- they has expertly confused the idea of wealth concentration with the work of international organizations like WHO.
      Praying on the naive.

      1. How was this right wing?

        She was exposing both sides of the mainstream media. She even exposed some media companies in her own country who are right-wing and mentioned tucker carlson as the spokesperson for the right in your country who makes up facts.

        I think it is more the tendencies of Americans to politicize everything. Then let their respective cognitive dissonance reject or accept information based on your political bias.

        1. She exposed Dutch media company owners who where Nazi collaborators. You are off your rocker if you think that is a right wing doco. Completely off your rocker.

          1. The overall gist of her work is either a case poor understanding (I doubt it), or a purposeful misleading media presentation. I suspect the latter, and find it sad that you didn’t see through it.
            Exert skepticism.

      2. This video is popular on
        – Red Pill Documentaries
        – American Partisan
        – The Killing Times
        – Forbidden Knowledge TV

    2. Iron Mike-
      The presentation starts with laying out the case against The Vanguard Group, and its secret owner elites, as the biggest asset company of the world, owning large positions in hundreds of companies.

      Vanguard is indeed the biggest mutual fund company and has been so successful by offering very low cost index funds. Index funds, such as the one tracking the S&P500 (500 largest US companies) has shares in 507 companies- matching the index on which it is based. This is not a ‘actively managed’ fund and thus is very low cost, and therefore popular with tens of thousands of savers from small to large. Nothing mysterious here.
      “Vanguard is like a coop, and this is pretty remarkable… The other thing to understand is Vanguard’s ownership structure. Most investment firms are owned by wealthy individuals or by other big financial firms further up the food chain. They’re the shareholders, and they cast the votes that direct the investment firm’s business decisions. Which means the investment firm doesn’t just manage their giant pool of money in a way to get the best results for customers; it manages that pool with an eye to extract an extra profit for shareholders on top. Bogle, on the other hand, designed Vanguard as a co-operative: Its customers are its shareholders. There’s no separate class of people it’s trying to generate separate surplus profits for. Instead, Vanguard can just forego that money and plow it back into lower fee structures.”

      Does the video presenter even understand this, or is it intentionally misleading?
      It should be no surprise to anyone who has done a little homework to see exactly why a company like Vanguard would have ownership in hundreds of companies- it is what one would expect.
      Plainly, she used a really bad example to make her point.
      And it goes downhill from there. Targeting organizations and people (such as WHO, Soros Buffet, and the Gates Foundation) who promote causes like human rights, science, global health, democracy, and education. All the while conveniently giving the authoritarians and the hidden money in the Caymans and Swiss banks a free pass.
      Humanity is awash in seriously misguided sources of belief and information. Stoking misguided hatred is how I see it.
      It’s a very bad sign when people swallow all this without a strong reality filter.
      Nothing against you Iron Mike. I am just feeling flooded by so much bullshit from so many sources, and the mental state of this country is fragile, feeble, and gullible.
      Its a recipe for cooking up a chaotic downfall. Europe much the same I suspect.

      1. Hickory,

        You and i will probably agree on many things, but this is one thing we will disagree on. I understand that’s how Vanguard operates. But to be in a top 10 shareholder of a huge number of big corporation means they have control. And can push out their own narrative to support their own profiteering which implies the capitalistic system is not as competitive as people think. Its all smokescreens. That’s how i see it.

        It is funny because you acknowledge wealth inequality, but the institutions responsible for it, it seems you just keep a blind eye to it or reject the information. It “seems” you think wealth inequality is just by chance. I think its completely organised by the system itself and the billionaire class + government institutions are directly responsible, but have a good PR campaign to hide it.

        Again i completely disagree with you with regards to Soros, gates, they are all crooks. I think you drank their PR cool aid. Why you’d think these billionaire class have peoples best interest at heart is beyond me. And again with regards to wealth inequality, has it gotten worse or better in the past 20 years and all the WEF meetings, and all the conferences of billionaires getting together “concerned” about the state of the world bla bla? All the fucking Paris agreements has GHG emissions increased or decreased ? You see where i am going with this.

        You accuse me of not being skeptical but you seem to just agree with their narrative without question. Anyways we will agree to disagree.

        1. Big Zombie

          With regard to sociocultural institutions’ and specialists’ betraying of people’s trust, it’s like most personal relationships when trust is betrayed enough times:

          Decline and/or collapse. They are not viable. ‘Your Are Here.’.

          But like many dubious relationships, there are always those who stubbornly cling to and support them. They stagger and teeter, zombie-like. They get used to being betrayed and beaten and/or pretend it’s not happening. It’s a new comfort zone, even a cult, or religion…

          societal S&M, (somewhat currently, complete with masks, social distancing and lockdowns [anonymity, cages, chastity, bondage & discipline, needles, drugs]).

          They continue to cling to Big Centralized Nation-State Government, Big Media, Big Mouthpieces, Big Pharma, Big Science, Big Fauci, Big Medicine, Big Energy, Big Box Retail, Big Spooks, Big Experts, Big This and That and to whatever their reps tell them, even if sometimes it happens to be true or correct, never mind (the effective suppression/denial of) conflicts-of-interest or inherent complexities/complications.

          CV-19 and its assorted responses/antidotes (vaccines, treatments, etc.), incidentally, whether true or correct, have entered, if not necessarily been created by, Big Zombie.

          Big Side-effects.

  8. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for the global growth of wind and solar by another 25% compared to figures it published just six months ago.
    The Paris-based agency says a “huge” 280 gigawatts (GW) of renewable capacity – primarily wind and solar – was installed globally last year, some 45% higher than the level in 2019, after the largest annual increase in more than 20 years.
    This “exceptional” level of annual additions will become the “new normal” in 2021 and 2022, the IEA says, with the potential for further acceleration in the years that follow.

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/exceptional-new-normal-iea-raises-growth-forecast-for-wind-and-solar-by-another-25

    Hope you or your utility get plenty while you still can.

  9. Here are some Pearl Harbor Wake Up events happening RIGHT NOW.
    The problem is that they’re happening in places with relatively few people to vote, or else in places that people already tend to vote for the environment anyway, meaning the Democrats in the USA.

    Sounds mean, I know, but we need a super drought or off season hurricane or something that’s REALLY bad to wake up more people here in the USA in red or red leaning states.

    https://e360.yale.edu/features/the-age-of-megafires-the-world-hits-a-climate-tipping-point

    1. The primary reason I migrated north to within 100 miles of the Canadian border was due to heavy smoke and fire in Northern CA, over and over.
      There is pretty big fire risk in WA and BC as well, but mostly far inland and with less frequency and duration- so far.
      The choice was easier for me than for most, since my work location is flexible and my wife is from up here.

      “But 17 of the 20 largest fires in the state’s [Calif] history have occurred since [2003].”

      PyroCumuloNimbus-
      https://e360.yale.edu/features/fire-induced-storms-a-new-danger-from-the-rise-in-wildfires

    1. Thanks IM, an interesting link. We’ve lost 10% of forests since 2001:

      From 2001 to 2020, there was a total of 411Mha of tree cover loss globally, equivalent to a 10% decrease in tree cover since 2000 and 165Gt of CO₂ emissions.

    1. OFM, you are old enough to remember how families got split during the civil war…
      Fondly kidding, of course, but
      The current partisanship in this country is severe enough that families have stopped having some holidays together, or with certain members.
      It seems to me like this could get a lot more severe, depending on events.
      I wonder how much of the various armed forces branches are willing to break with leadership over domestic events (like the overturning of election results), and how many police and national guard are willing to suppress the outrage of their own families.
      This country is so heavily armed, and filled with so many zealots, idiots, severely naive people, and tribal discord that the general stability we are used to may prove to be paper-thin illusion.

      1. All of us living in the US should be seriously worried about the damage the right has done to the very concept of community. I think it began during the Nixon administration when Republicans realized that facts, data, reality simply refuted most of their most fondly held political beliefs. And it has progressively (ha, they are the opposite of progressive!) gotten worse while they have seen that there is a large number of low information voters that want a strong man government to make policy issues simple enough for them to understand. Trump is much more a symptom of long term Republican talking points than the cause. All of this leads to the current right wing mantra that anyone not “with us” is not just wrong but an enemy. With enemies there is no need to fight fair. Compromise is treason.

        1. Sociopolitical Flatland

          Unsure what some people would make of forward or backward, much less up or down.

      2. Your damn right we’re heavily armed, the Second Amendment is a sacred gift from the Founders to make sure We The People have one last resort to prevent a tyrannical communist government. The way things are going, the legacies of all the brave and courageous men who died for this country in the World Wars are being spit on by the new Bolsheviks attempting to overtake the USA.

        Listen, all you patriots out there, what you really need to do is make sure your county goes to a Second Amendment Sanctuary status, if it hasn’t done so already. That’s what you need to make sure your county sheriff will just nullify any unconstitutional laws the gun grabbers make up.

        1. PHF has REALLY been into the trump koolaid, lol……….
          to the extent he doesn’t even realize who the bad guys are.

      3. Hi Hickory,
        I’m figuratively praying you’re wrong…….. but there’s a possibility you’re right. I can’t say I have any firm opinion as to what the odds are of things continuing to go downhill, versus a return to what has passed for normal times.

        I have known quite a few vets over the years, and a fair number of career military people.
        All the career people I know personally have been reasonably intelligent people with a decent grasp of the meaning of words such as rule of law, etc.

        So I’m pretty sure we can count on our people in uniform to do the right things, the vast majority of the time.
        But there are sure to be a few scumbags in ANY really big organization.

        Let’s just hope there aren’t very many of them who are senior officers.

  12. Hydrogen as energy storage is in the early stages of being explored, and now implemented.
    Plug Power has been one of early companies in the fuel cell business (consumes hydrogen to make electricity), and are now getting into the supply side in a fairly big way utilizing wind energy to drive hydrolyzers.

    “The new hydrogen plant, which will draw power directly from the Young Wind farm in development in Texas, will be capable of producing 30 metric tons of liquid hydrogen per day, which Plug Power estimates is enough to fuel over 1,000 heavy-duty class 8 trucks.”

    Much more details in the article-
    https://www.utilitydive.com/news/developers-enter-largest-green-hydrogen-ppa-in-us-with-345-mw-of-wind-to-po/603366/

    As I understand it, this is an energy expensive roundtrip process, but then again electric engines are 2-3 times overall more efficient than combustion engines. I wonder what the weight of hydrogen plus a fuel cell is compared to a vehicle battery of same energy capacity.

    1. Why are the renewables estimates absurdly slow? EIA is expecting 5% of energy by 2050. It’s less significant than wood.

      1. Mark,
        -last week you said that wind turbines could produce no energy (despite the fact that Iowa derived 57% of its electrical output form wind energy in 2020)
        -now in just one week you have decided that it is as good as wood

        Your credibility is piss poor

        btw- According to BP global statistical energy review 2020, renewables made up 5.7% of global primary energy, slightly higher than nuclear, and approaching hydroelectricity.
        pg 12- https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-primary-energy.pdf

        By 2050 renewables will be providing more energy than oil. Probably before 2040 the way things are going.

        1. I said it was useless. What’s the issue?

          The practical consequence is that the wind companies are laying off and collapsing. This normally is about subsidies but now it’s just plain losing money. You are free to invest in the wind industry, lose your money I do not care.

          Tesla is the main renewables investment, despite its products being irrelevant. It’s current valuation requires it to sell every car in the world so it’s obviously going nowhere and headed for collapse.

          2. Mark. I think you are making a mistake treating parts of your life like its one big Trump rally.
            Where people clap or laugh when you say outlandish lies and falsehoods, as if you mean it. As if repeating a lie twice makes it true.
            Trump said a one of his rallies, maybe you remember- ‘that the noise from windmills will give you cancer’. I think he was getting confused from one of his briefings that he was doodling during, where they said- ‘yes, a nuclear meltdown can give a lot of people cancer’

            Of course there are a lot of wildly different opinions expressed in public.
            Yet in many places, and here sometimes, if you falsely portray your opinion as a representation of reality people will reply back-“what about the facts?”
            Without credibility based on science, engineering and economic reality, your comments are typically nothing but ‘throw it in the garbage’ crap.

            1. Mark has opinions and makes assertions. Lots of them. “useless”, “irrelevant”, etc.

              He’s not good at providing any support for those assertions.

              And if you don’t agree with his assertions, he seems to think that insulting you will make him look more informed somehow.

            2. So then you dont understand the betz equation.

              Anyway I encourage you to hold Tesla and lose money. The renewables is largely tracking Tesla so it’s all the same clown product.

              You realize, even if you don’t understand the betz equation that lithium is limited. The earth has 300 trillion tons of lithium to a depth of a mile.

              A car consumes around 10 tons of gas over its lifetime and a Tesla battery is 10kg. A 1000:1 ore grade means more ore than a car has gas. That’s why lithium is mined where it is at least 1% abundant.

              1% is on land and accessible, 10% is profitable, with losses and assuming 1% ore grade that’s 300 million tons lithium resource with 30m reserves. You could make 300m cars with that and if Tesla makes 10% with 10% going to cars then it could produce its current rate for 3 years and justify 8% of its market cap.

              You can of course complain about the assumptions but that just proves how physically impossible renewables are.

            3. Gerry, you can simply ask for citations of anything. If you don’t then why respond?

            4. Mark,

              Well, yeah, i do understand Betz’s Law. Again, you make an assertion that’s not supported by any evidence.

              “Making an argument” isn’t the same thing as “arguing”

              If you make an assertion without evidence, you can’t support it by providing more assertions without evidence. As it is, every time someone shows your assertions are wrong, you just seem to respond with “Look! Isn’t that a squirrel over there?”

              Try writing a coherent article supporting your assertions. There’s no shortage of places for you to post it.

            5. Betz law says wind is 40% efficient and the rest deforms the blade (60% in ideal). So if you understand that then wind doesn’t work.

              Of course you just lied lazily so I’m just replying to a troll. If you need clarification then of course ask.
              Here’s your coherent article.

              The ocean is 1e18 tons. Taking this as the weight of land to a depth of a mile, 3% of the earth is near fault lines, and mining the rest is feeble. Round to 1% and this gives us 1e16 tons of minable land. Is this hard to understand? Can you find any instance where I was ever wrong about anything? I predicted in 2013 peak in 2022. https://peakoil.com/forums/post1462980.html?hilit=2013 2022#p1462980 In 2020 i predicted continued production fall while dcoyne forecast growth.

              Now, your complaints are really just incoherent so I’ll continue. During mining https://pdf.wri.org/mining_background_literature_review.pdf up to 99 percent is wasted. Lithium has a crustal abundance of 1/100k and mined at 1% so that’s a 100k times hit. We’re at 1e11 tons minable.

              Now the crustal abundance takes it to 1e6. Only 1 million ton lithium reserve is even physically possible (with rounding error) to fit in the earth and anything more is literally defy it the laws of physics and logic.

              So just continue shitposting because I have cited all the math and you reply is irrelevant unless you want to proceed from here to how many cars.

              I would love to start my own blog but for some reason everyone insists on using this site.

            6. Well, no.

              Your posts tell me that you apparently don’t have a technical background in petroleum geology, geophysics, or fluid dynamics.

              The quips you recite and assertions you make suggest your primary source of information is Youtube videos and Facebook. I don’t believe you understand it.

              What is your background and education?

            7. Systems engineering.

              And I’m obviously correct you can’t even find anything wrong.

            8. Mark,

              Do you have any links to technical publications, books or articles you’ve authored?

            9. I don’t publish because I have a job.

              However other people have publications and were wrong about everything.

            10. Mark,

              You wrote:
              Betz law says wind is 40% efficient and the rest deforms the blade (60% in ideal). So if you understand that then wind doesn’t work.

              Can you provide a link showing where you got that description of Betz’s Law?

            11. “The Betz limit is the theoretical maximum efficiency for a wind turbine, conjectured by German physicist Albert Betz in 1919. Betz concluded that this value is 59.3%, meaning that at most only 59.3% of the kinetic energy from wind can be used to spin the turbine and generate electricity.”

              This has zero relevant to the practical decisions of energy policy, or the way a utility spends it money on new projects.

              For comparison ” internal combustion engines are only about 20% to 35% efficient when used to power a car”.
              And yet they do work and are still used.

              Mark. another life hint for you- try to think of issues without a predetermined basis. You may actually learn something and learn to say things that are relevant, and people may gradually learn to not immediately dismiss you as a twit. No guarantees, since first impressions run deep. It will take a lot of effort.

            12. Cars are able to withstand damage, turbines aren’t. They are designed for the damage to be a constraint. If you made a car engine big enough it would have this problem.

              Think of it like two curves. If you’re enlarging the machine by making the parts bigger that’s one cost. If you enlarge by making the materials stronger that’s a second cost. If you combine them that’s a steeper curve and wind turbines do that.

              And like I said, go ahead and lose your money, buy renewables all you want.

            13. Mark,

              You asked Can you find any instance where I was ever wrong about anything?

              And you said: Betz law says wind is 40% efficient and the rest deforms the blade (60% in ideal). So if you understand that then wind doesn’t work

              Your understanding of Betz’s Law is wrong.

              As for “wind doesn’t work”. 20% of the electricity i use is from wind, so it clearly does ‘work’. You’re wrong about that as well.

              Agreed?

            14. “Your understanding of Betz’s Law is wrong.”
              How? Because it doesn’t mention damage and you need to use your brain cells to see that?

              So far every reply from you has been “no u” so I don’t really see a point in continuing.

              So know you want to talk about specific countries. Iowa (or whatever) has all the wind because there’s no manufacturing. It imports everything and there’s no steel production.

              The few areas with manufacturing that have wind (China, Germany) are also doing embarrassingly badly. Illinois has steel mills and wind, so you could use that, but it’s not growing fast. For example they have offshore wind they didn’t even bother with.

              Globally Texas is the only real area building new wind farms. Construction is slowing around 5% a year since 2012 so wind will be dead around 2032.

            15. Mark,

              You described as coherent your calculation of Lithium reserves, and came up with
              Only 1 million ton lithium reserve is even physically possible (with rounding error) to fit in the earth and anything more is literally defy it the laws of physics and logic.

              The geologists at the USGS have estimated that “Lithium resources in the United States—from continental brines, geothermal brines, hectorite, oilfield brines, and pegmatites—are 6.8 million tons. Lithium resources in other countries have been revised to 73 million tons.”
              https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf

              So the USGS says there are 80 million tonnes, which is 80 times what you asserted.

              I think you’re wrong about that as well.

            16. “are 80 million tonnes, which is 80 times what you asserted.”

              That’s unlikely to happen. Total world lithium production cumulatively is around 5 million tons. America stopped doing lithium decades ago. You can believe the usgs numbers but they don’t make any sense.

              The lithium industry is in shortage and having bankruptcies.

              Your lithium estimate also means Tesla will collapse so you’re a completely mindless troll who refuted their own arguments.

            17. I think that’s what I’ve been saying.

              You say something, someone else shows you’re wrong, and you suddenly see a squirrel over there.

              Earlier you said the maximum amount of lithium was less than 1 million tons. USGS says 80 million. Now you say 5 million.

              Squirrels. And you insist you’re never wrong.

            18. Your own numbers prove Tesla doomed, your gibberish trolls are irrelevant.

    2. Round trip efficiency is not NECESSARILY an important metric when computing the value or practicality of using an alternative fuel and technology.

      Solar electricity is going to get to be so cheap so much of the time that the input cost of the electricity to run hydrolyzers will be a very minor fraction of the total cost of using hydrogen so obtained to run trucks and other machinery.
      Depending on how much the hydrolyzer plant costs, the hydrogen produced might sell pretty damned cheap, considering it can be used to run electric motors in trucks.

      The relevant questions are these, most likely.

      How much will it cost to store, transport, and retail the hydrogen to truckers and other customers, and how much will it cost to build trucks to run on it, compared to ordinary trucks?

      Diesel fuel is one hell of a big expense even at three bucks, if you’re a trucker. You may get by on twenty or thirty gallons a day if you’re parked half or more of the time loading and unloading, but if you’re on the road all day, you may use ten gallons an hour, or even more. Team drivers on long trips can use two hundred gallons or more per twenty four hours.

      I’m thinking the potential is ENORMOUS….. assuming the fuel cell industry comes up with reasonably durable and reliable fuel cells big enough for eighteen wheelers, even if they’re a hundred grand apiece.

  13. Hillary Is America

    “How do you account for the American people’s long infatuation with government? Is it love coupled with denial? How many are like the cuckold who repeatedly find his wife in bed with other men? They remain smitten even as the government goes from lie to lie, betrayal to betrayal. Consider a list of political prevarications, by no means exhaustive.

    A ‘modest’ income tax will only be levied on the very rich. A central bank will smooth out economic fluctuations, stop financial crises, and maintain the value of the dollar. President Wilson will keep us out of Europe’s War. World War I will be the war to end all wars and make the world safe for democracy. The New Deal will end the Great Depression. President Roosevelt will keep us out of Europe’s war. World War II will be the war to end all wars and make the world safe for democracy. Dropping atomic bombs on Japan is necessary to save a million American lives. The Communists want to rule the world. The president was killed by a lone gunman. There is light at the end of the tunnel in Vietnam. ‘I am not a crook.’ Whip Inflation Now. Wars against poverty, drugs, and terrorism will eradicate poverty, drugs, and terrorism. Legally mandated racial, ethnic, and gender preferences are not discriminatory. The Muslims want to rule the world. Invading foreign countries, fighting undeclared wars, and regime changes will make the world safe for democracy. Spying on you full-time will make you safer and preserve your freedom. If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor; if you like your plan you can keep your plan.

    Yet, faith in government runs deep, there’s still that substantial segment who believes whatever it tells them…”

  14. Death By Survival

    “All the fucking Paris agreements has GHG emissions increased or decreased ? You see where i am going with this.” ~ Iron Mike

    If governpimps worked as hard/vigorously/propagandically against climate change and assorted pollution as they have with their likely C-19 lab-leak, vis-a-vis social control, business closures and whatnot, we’d likely be far closer to being out of the woods WRT the former 2 by now.

    Pollution, rather than people, would be socially distanced, masked and locked-down.

    And people would be out and about planting native and food trees, plants and gardens, breaking up pavement, and socializing/strategizing about real/viable/liveable communities again, replacing the current garbage.

    But of course big-box governpimps and their big-box crony corporatists run on big-box energy– predominantly, fossil fuels, as well as people’s blood, sweat and tears. Hate and violence. So some of the aforementioned is existentially antithetical to their survival.

    Coronavirus appears but a mere symptom of, and distraction from, much larger and more dangerous diseases.

    Vow by Garbage

    1. Right now things are getting worse in my native Tennessee. The crazies are now opposed to health care. And they run the government.

      1. Unwell Inside The Law:
        Precautionary Principle Stances Regarding A Failing System

        If the ‘crony-capitalist nation-state’ system increasingly is, and is seen as, untrustworthy/corrupt/undependable/broken/etc., then it increasingly matters in a sense less what it says, even if it’s true or correct.

        This of course includes what it might say about CV-19 and its vaccines, BTW– especially if the system augmented and leaked the virus, (if that clears up some associated mysteries for some of you).

        As for the multiple mentions now of so-called ‘bible belts’, ask yourselves if you have your own religion/bible in the form of a belief in the aforementioned system as well as if those who may believe in, say, Jesus, are necessarily blind to everything that’s going on outside of their own beliefs and inside your own. Be honest, if not to us, then at least to yourselves.

        CNN upthread; MSNBC here…

        “https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/power-white-trump-loving-evangelical-christian-leaders-waning-n1273778?icid=msd_botgrid” ~ OFM

        Glenn (OFM), give us your media/news go-to list please.

        ————

        MSNBC is not your friend. Follow the money.

        ————

        Here Come Cowboys
        “There are colors flashing
        People wearing stars and stuff
        There are engines crashing
        There’s a way to turn it off
        It gets so hard at times
        To take it serious
        It really gets to be a drag
        When all we really need is love

        Here come cowboys
        Here to save us all
        Here come cowboys
        They’re so well inside the law
        Here come cowboys
        They’re no fun at all…”

        “This comment was proudly brought to you by CV-19™.

        [We’ve got the disease, and we’ve got the cure treatment. Just do what we tell you.]*

        ®Because we care.”

        * My addition in square brackets.

  16. Especially grim wildfire news from Oregon. Apart from the destruction on the ground, how much CO2 are these guys adding to atmosphere?

    “Smoke and heat from a huge wildfire in south-eastern Oregon are creating giant “fire clouds” over the blaze – dangerous columns of smoke and ash that can reach up to six miles (10km) in the sky and are visible from more than 100 miles away. Authorities have put these clouds at the top of the list of the extreme fire behavior they are seeing amid the Bootleg fire, the largest wildfire burning in the US. The inferno grew on Friday to about 377 sq miles (976 sq km), an area larger than New York City, and was raging through a part of the American west that is enduring a historic drought.”

    1. That is why using topsoil to store carbon is a better idea than using trees. In fire, most of the carbon remains in the topsoil.

      1. Trees are more productive than wind turbines in energy production per area.

        1. Trees (and assorted naturals) are brilliant and do far more than one-trick techno-ponies.There’s no comparison.

          They also produce topsoil. That’s a biggie.

          (It’s the difference between topsoil that’s depleted [as people– some who should know better– fuck around with it in idiotic ways] and topsoil that increases.)

  17. Ingraham. Sorry but you are woefully misinformed on facts. It would be kind of funny if you weren’t serious.
    “Globally Texas is the only real area building new wind farms. Construction is slowing around 5% a year since 2012 so wind will be dead around 2032.”

    Total onshore wind additions in 2020 were 19.4 GW in the Americas, 12.6 GW in Europe and 863 MW in Africa and the Middle East, while Asia Pacific accounted for 57.3 GW. BNEF’s database registered new wind farms starting full commercial operations in 44 countries.
    https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/wind-power/global-wind-industry-reached-nearly-100-gw-of-new-installed-capacity-in-2020/

      1. You’re just trolling. The long term trend in installations is obviously down.

  18. Unicorn-Poo Publications Presents:
    Alt Energy & Infrastructure: Duct-Taping Something Onto Something Else That’s Falling Apart

    Alimbiquated (et al.), there is a ‘report card’ about the US’ ‘failing’ infrastructure, including energy, and it appears quite bad:

    C-

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