81 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, April 18, 2022”

  2. Damned mass media, telling it like it ain’t lol.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/mercedes-pulls-off-a-feat-that-should-worry-tesla/ar-AAWeAaf?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1faa1ae21e014638abd8db600b45e66b

    So……. this car goes a little over six hundred miles in a little less than TWELVE hours, lol.
    Unless I missed it, no where in the article does it mention that the average speed was therefore very likely less than thirty five mph.

    I’m pretty sure that if you run a four hundred mile range Tesla, which you can actually BUY, if you have the money, at thirty five mph, you would get pretty close to six hundred miles.

    Nevertheless it’s great that Mercedes and other companies are running pedal to the metal on getting more electric cars to market.

    1. Looks like the consumptions sweet spot for EVs is paradoxically the nightmare spot for ICEs: low speed high traffic conditions.

      1. The sweet spot for ICE is like EV- slow speed with no stop start, and all downhill.

        1. “All down hill”

          That’s not a scientific study.

          In general, the sweet spot(MPG) for ICE(autos) on level ground is at the slowest constant speed after the vehicle has reached it’s top gear and slowed the RPM’s to it’s lowest per distance traveled. For most new vehicles this is around 50 mph and still in most cases more fuel is being used by the engine compressing and moving air internally than moving the vehicle.

          In real world applications for best fuel economy. The vehicle needs to travel a little faster than the sweet pot to avoid down shifting for changing elevations and wind demands.

          1. Eliquis , bull shit . Why are all EV manufacturers underwater including Tesla ? Tesla makes money only out of selling carbon credits and not out of selling cars . Hicks is on the spot on this issue . I have long said that renewables and EV’s are boondoggles . They are not a solution but “hopium ” that is going to cause a lot of pain . Don’t believe me ? Here is what CEO/ founder of Rivian has to say .
            “Now Rivian Chief Executive RJ Scaringe is warning of an even bigger crunch. He told the WSJ: “Put very simply, all the world’s cell production combined represents well under 10% of what we will need in 10 years.”

            He continued: “Meaning, 90% to 95% of the supply chain does not exist.”
            There is no supply chain . All is fraud . I know it from an insider at Rivian . He is high , very high because he put the Rivian/ Amazon deal together . He is my nephew . What is true for Rivian is true for all EV manufacturers . No exceptions . Get real buddy .

            2. It hardly matters if EVs aren’t making money today. In a few years every country with any sense will not allow ICE powered cars for a host of economic and environmental issues.

            3. I fire back with facts . If you don’t want to learn that is not my issue .
              The shares of four of them have collapsed by over 90% from their highs. The one that collapsed by the least was still down 60%. Some of them will likely go to $0.

              EV SPACs & IPOs Price $ % from peak Date of peak
              Nikola [NKLA] 7.79 -90.3% 9-Jun-20
              Lordstown [RIDE] 3.04 -90.4% 11-Feb-21
              Romeo Power [RMO] 2.06 -93.9% 24-Dec-20
              Workhorse [WKHS] 3.23 -92.5% 4-Feb-21
              Quantum [QS] 15.87 -88.0% 22-Dec-20
              Faraday Future [FFIE] 4.59 -77.9% 1-Feb-21
              Canoo [GOEV] 5.85 -73.9% 7-Dec-20
              Rivian [RIVN] 58.85 -67.2% 16-Nov-21
              Lucid Motors [LCID] 25.84 -60.2% 18-Feb-21
              Hope you made some money .
              https://wolfstreet.com/2022/02/12/the-collapse-of-the-ev-spacs-retail-investors-got-fleeced-swiftly-and-spectacularly/

            4. “Hope you made some money .”
              A perfect demonstration of you missing the point.

            5. Head in Ass,

              You fire back with information that’s not relevant to the subject of conversation. Like this:

              Lars Carlstrom, the founder-CEO of Italvolt, announced the launch of a new company, Statevolt, which will construct a 54GWh Gigafactory in Imperial Valley, southern California with an expected CapEx of $4 billion. To launch the new facility, Statevolt has also signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) with Controlled Thermal Resources (CTR).

              https://www.greencarcongress.com/2022/04/20220420-statevolt.html

              The world doesn’t need Russian resources. Soon Russia will be irrelevant and isolated from the western world. Putin will hang from a tree. Just another North Korea of poverty and going to get it’s ass kicked by Ukraine. LOL

              Your such a loser and Russian troll who doesn’t even get paid. I hear the Russian army needs new drivers to park their trucks on Ukraine roads for destruction. Go for big mouth because soon self driving vehicles will make you unemployed.

              It’s Howitzer time

            6. Eliquis , boy are you living in la la land . You will learn very soon about Russian resources . LOI ( Letter of Intent ) is what it is , an ” intent ” . The second word I am sick of hearing is mandates . The EU has this mandate , the ECB has that mandate and the FED has every mandate . Mandates without authority and tools of implementation are useless . Just like a Rolls-Royce without gasoline . It is expected that the EU will sanction the import of 4mbpd of Russian oil after the French elections this weekend . We will see . If they don’t it means I am correct ( Russian energy is indispensable ) and if I am wrong then see the collapse of Europe as it runs out of diesel . Win win for me in either scenario.
              Next ” I hear the Russian army needs new drivers to park their trucks on Ukraine roads for destruction. ”
              You hear bullshit and believe it . Yeah Ukraine was winning the war , Russia was running out of fuel . Russia was running out of ammo . Putin was sick and drinking antlers blood . I deflated all the arguments . Now the latest, Putin caused the inflation in USA , high gas prices , Putin did it , Will Smith slapped Chris Rock because of Putin , Lake Powell is dried because of Putin . Putin is superman ??? He can do all these things but he does not know how to fight and win a war ? Here is a link to all what Putin did . It is very comforting for members of your ilk . ROFL .
              https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/04/17/blame_putin_147483.html
              Don’t blame others for your bad decisions , take responsibility .
              No , It is not howitzer time . Howitzer’s are like bringing your butter knife against an opponent with an AR 15 . Get into a bunker ASAP .
              https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10735901/Russia-tests-new-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-provide-food-thought-enemies.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

            7. Head in Ass,

              The only thing the coward Putin and his army knows how to kill and fight are innocent civilians.

              Putin kills babies and women. Bombs hospitals and schools.

              Head in Ass loves Putin and his war crimes

            8. Head in Ass,

              Over Easter weekend, another Russian general was reportedly killed by Ukrainian forces, the eighth since the beginning of the war on February 24.

              Alexander Beglov, governor of St. Petersburg, confirmed the death of Vladimir Frolov, deputy commander of Russia’s 8th Guards Combined Arms Army on Saturday. Frolov was given a military funeral in St. Petersburg’s Serafimovskoe Cemetery on Saturday.

              https://www.newsweek.com/every-russian-general-killed-fighting-ukraine-war-so-farfull-list-1698945

              New photos show Russian warship Moskva before it sank

              Moscow has denied the Ukrainian version of events — that the Moskva sunk after being struck by Ukrainian missiles — but it admitted the ship went down.

              https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/18/europe/ukraine-moskva-warship-sinking-images-intl/index.html

              Ukraine kills Russian Generals and sinks Moskva. Russia kills babies and lies.

            9. No, Tesla does not depend on carbon credits to make a profit. Those days have passed. I am not sure why you make such an incorrect statement. Building EVs makes more sense than making more ICE vehicles. We will need many, many more batteries. But , it will be easier to come up with those than to come up with that un-ending oil supply ICE proponents seem to think we have. Even with that missing supply chain, Tesla alone will add 1.5 million EVs this year. Not to mention what all the others will add. Today and the future, is EV.

            10. HiH, Ukraine is playing a brilliant hybrid of static & mobile defense. The howitzer M777 is a great piece of kit; high speed low drag. The triple 7 is gonna be a fantastic asset for the Ukrainians in battle. That is an objective statement, irrelevant of one’s preferences for either sides moral exhortations.

              On Tesla; April 21, 2022.

              “The Austin, Texas-based company posted strong gains in profit and revenue for the first three months, including the sale of regulatory credits totalling $679m – more than double the previous quarter. Tesla has generated billions through sales of zero-carbon credits that allow other automakers to comply with stricter emissions regulations. But chief financial officer Zach Kirkhorn said that credit gain was mostly due to a one-time $288m benefit linked to stiffer US emissions penalties. “Credit revenue would have declined compared to the period last year” without that extraordinary boost, the CFO told analysts.”

              https://gulfbusiness.com/tesla-notches-record-profit-sees-big-2022-production-gain/

              Tesla States It Made $3.3 Billion in Profits in Q1 2022, Analysts Are Skeptical
              “GLJ Research did not hold back on words and said in a report published on April 21 that Elon Musk must have lied when he said Tesla production in Q2 2022 would be similar to that in Q1. The market research company also brought up the costs of putting two new factories to work. Until they reach their maximum manufacturing capacity, it would be expensive to ramp up, which would necessarily show up in operating expenses.”
              https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-states-it-made-33-billion-in-profits-in-q1-2022-analysts-are-skeptical-187014.html

            11. Survivalist , the war in Ukraine is lost . USA poodle Boris Johnson has already conceded .
              https://www.ft.com/content/ae0c7ffe-d6d4-48f9-8777-f9c4bb16e899
              But just for continuing the conversation on all the stuff the West is supplying to Ukraine . Understand it is all going via Poland . Polish border to Donbass is 1200 km . You need 16 wheelers and paved roads to transport the stuff . The air space is controlled by Russia . The ammo will never get to the battle scene . You will say they can use the side roads . Well, they are unpaved and the 16 wheelers will just sink in the mud and be sitting targets . Just for your info the Eastern front is perfect terrain for Russia . Flat and no cities only towns and villages( unlike Mariupol) which are all pro Russian so the Ukies are not going to get any local help . I have been refraining from keeping out of the Ukraine discussion because the propaganda war is at full speed . Just for your info the Ukies are already retreating from North Donbass . If you believe the narrative ” Ukraine will defeat Russia ” then you must also believe ” Mexico can defeat USA ”
              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0PRuFx-4P8&t=286s&ab_channel=AlexanderMercouris
              As to EV ‘s I will not make any comment and keep my powder dry . I will revert when the frauds are exposed . By the way Cathy Woods (ARKK) has a target for Tesla at $ 4600 by 2025 . I don’t give investment advice but her fund is down 60% .

            12. I was just listening to a Fox News/Tucker Carlson clip from a couple months ago in which he’s discussing Russian invasion of Ukraine, but he can’t seem to do it without mentioning gender neutral bathrooms and Black Lives Matter. It reminded me of the Hannity and Penn interview from not long ago with Hannity insisting on the use of terms like “Trump Doctrine” & “Reagan Doctrine” to describe particular sorts of military decisions, like trying to win.

              It seems the American right can’t see the war in Ukraine, or indeed anything at all, without viewing it through the lens of their own culture war narrative. It provides for a most unobjective analysis.

              FWIW- there is no evidence that Russia has anything but a measure of localized air superiority around Donbas. If they did have more they’d be doing much better in areas that they recently retreated from and/or lost.

    2. It doesn’t say that it was non-stop for 12 hours, so there may have been one or more bathroom breaks in there.

      But 626 miles in 12 hours is more than 52 mph average. Where did you get 35 mph?

      1. Egg on my face, lol.

        I may have been just about asleep.

        No real excuse, but things are rather hectic around here looking after my invalid Dad, who is apt to be up all night and all day and very demanding of attention at times.

        Sometimes I think he will outlive me, lol.

        It pays to proofread before you hit post, especially when you’re doing math in your head.

  3. In the past 30 years the global human carbon emission/fossil combustion was roughly equal to the entire CO2 excretion over the preceding entirety of human history.
    And in this next thirty-year period out to 2050 we will do the same again.

    In this period coming we will also achieve Peak Global Combustion [PGC]-
    the day upon which global human carbon emission will hit its highest level and then begin a slow decline.

    Many questions, aside from the month during which PGC will occur, come to mind.
    For example, at what point will the Terminal Deforestation Event [TDE] * occur, and will it create a secondary peak?

    PGC will be a day to remember. Some will rejoice, and some will weep. There will be hoarding, poems will be wrote, the taverns will run dry, effigies will be burnt, gates will be locked, and chambers will be loaded.

    Global warming will continue on for another 6 decades, or centuries longer if methane really runs.

    *TDE- the wholesale burning of the worlds forests as wood to cook, keep warm, smelt metals, etc in the years after coal/gas/oil begin to run short. The event will be complete within one decade, given the scale of energy shortage and the capability of the human machine.

    Just saying.

    1. Factoid: 40% of the CO2 emitted by Ford Model Ts still hangs out in the atmosphere.

      1. Good point- I better revise the statement
        “Global warming will continue on for another 6 decades”
        Should say 36 decades.

    2. at what point will the Terminal Deforestation Event [TDE] * occur, and will it create a secondary peak?

      Well, let’s see. I take it that you’re projecting that Peak Fossil Fuel will cause deforestation. So, let’s break that down: there are roughly three major FF’s: oil, gas and coal. My understanding is that oil is projected to peak in supply significantly before gas and coal. So, you’re projecting that Peak Oil will cause deforestation?

      Oil is primarily used for transportation (70%) – it was once used heavily for space heating, electrical generation and lighting, but it’s been uncompetitive for quite a while, so those uses have declined pretty quickly and sharply and are now relatively small. Does it make sense for PO to cause deforestation?

      1. Nick. Peak fossil fuel combustion I was referring to is the combined peak of oil, nat gas and coal (not just oil).
        And I raise the possibility of massive deforestation event as a result of a shortage of global energy once fossil fuel begin to decline.
        People already have scoured the landscape for as far as they can walk in many parts of the world, just for cooking fuel.
        This global deforestation isn’t necessarily baked in the cake so to speak, in a uniform manner.
        If the global effort to replace fossil fuels is ramped up in a very big way, some of this energy shortfall may be avoided. But when people don’t have oil or nat gas, or some robust replacement energy, have no doubt- it will be coal and wood that are used as a last attempt to fill the gap.
        If energy shortfall happens fast, it won’t take humanity long to clearcut huge swaths of forest.

        Unless things change much more quickly- I see this as a likely eventuality. Inevitable? …

        headline today – “Solar May Generate Half of World’s Power by 2050, Trina CEO Says” [Trina is the worlds 5th largest solar producing company]. That may be true, but it certainly does not mean that it will be enough to save the worlds forests.

        1. Peak fossil fuel combustion I was referring to is the combined peak of oil, nat gas and coal (not just oil).

          Sure. The thing is, things aren’t likely to happen like that. It’s a very different picture if those peaks happen at widely spaced times. For one thing, it gives much more time for implementation of efficiency and substitution. Have you looked at Dennis’s scenarios for oil, gas and coal?

          In particular, it’s worth looking at coal. Coal, after all, has peaked (in 2014!) due to lower demand, not supply. It’s bad for the environment, and actually I think it’s unlikely that we’ll resort to coal, but it’s worth remembering that peak coal (supply) is unlikely.

          All in all, I think our risks are much larger from climate change than from peak FF.

          1. The notion of Peak Global Combustion that i presented is about overall carbon emission, mostly fossil fuels and secondarily wood burning. I haven’t seen the idea talked about.

            A big point I am making is that we have a long way to go on carbon emissions. The global combustion is a massive event that isn’t going to end suddenly when we hit peak oil, or gas, or coal.
            Realize that the growth in population (energy demand) over the past decade has outstripped the renewable energy production growth.
            The CO2 emissions on the downside are going to be immense, as they have been on the upside.
            And as Mike B pointed out and NASA stated clearly-
            “Carbon dioxide is a different animal, however. Once it’s added to the atmosphere, it hangs around, for a long time: between 300 to 1,000 years.”
            It accumulates, and realize that much of the CO2 already released by combustion has been absorbed by the oceans, for now, up to 50% it is estimated.

            Simply, we have a long way to go before annual CO2 emissions get back down to the very high level where they were 50 years ago, maybe another 40-50 years.

  4. RECORD LOW ANTARCTIC SEA ICE

    In late February, the ocean area covered by ice slipped below the symbolic barrier of two million square kilometers (around 772,000 square miles) for the first time since satellite records began in 1978, according to a study in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

    Both the North and South pole regions have warmed by roughly three degrees Celsius compared to late 19th-century levels, three times the global average.

    https://phys.org/news/2022-04-antarctic-sea-ice-extent-shift.html

  5. OT:
    Math Concepts the State of Florida Finds Objectionable

    Their objection to Calculus:
    Calculus – We stand firmly against any field of mathematics that requires integration.

    (Division: This one is OK with us.)

    1. HT , . So what is next ? Will they put you behind bars because you ordered ” black coffee ” ? the West is now flashing the same lights that were when the Roman Empire died . Mankind will never learn . Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it . So be it . I am not going to interrupt

    2. While I don’t doubt that Ron DeSantis is both evil and ugly one must admit that he, and too many of his cohorts have a certain genius for inventing divisive, base energizing, flaps out of nearly nothing. After a lot of digging I saw some evidence of what they are making an issue of an just shake my head at everyone involved. There is something called “Social and Emotional Learning Standards” that is being incorporated in the majority of textbooks, including math books. As I understand this all textbooks are supposed to address racial and other subjects that kids encounter in their lives to both help kids grow emotionally and to make the material more relevant to their lives. I haven’t seen any of the specific material but I did read some of the standards. I did rather roll my eyes, both at the flakiness of putting that in a math book and the genius of the Repubs to use it to demonize everyone but their base. If you want to see the essence of the issue, without actually seeing what is in Florida’s banned books you can get a taste here:
      https://blog.bigideaslearning.com/what-is-social-and-emotional-learning-sel?utm_term=social%20emotional%20learning&utm_campaign=IN+-+Search+Campaign&utm_source=adwords&utm_medium=ppc&hsa_acc=9126421792&hsa_cam=16105868083&hsa_grp=136680227887&hsa_ad=580570918741&hsa_src=g&hsa_tgt=kwd-40277532&hsa_kw=social%20emotional%20learning&hsa_mt=b&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gclid=CjwKCAjwu_mSBhAYEiwA5BBmf6aUAbs5qDrUsUAE3kmCn1Imkl8Zrf3qoghqR5ijUgoWm7FmlSjaHxoCRVkQAvD_BwE

      1. Here’s a summary:

        “The process through which all young people and adults acquire and apply the knowledge, skills, and attitudes to develop healthy identities, manage emotions and achieve personal and collective goals, feel and show empathy for others, establish and maintain supportive relationships, and make responsible and caring decisions.”

        Actually, that really does sound like a threat to autocrats, and to people everywhere who get what they want through intimidation and violence.

        DeSantis is quite right to be threatened by it.

      2. Agreed. DeSantis wants that 2024 nomination and is trying to raise his name recognition as much as possible with free advertising by keeping himself in the news. It’s a very good strategy that Trump employed brilliantly.

        Now that politics and government has ceased to be about any policy that can actually effect people’s lives, there is only the culture war. This is the most important thing… because its the only thing.

  6. Interesting paper by Tony Seba on conventional power at link below.

    https://tonyseba.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Rethinking-Energy-LCOE.pdf

    The basic argument is that typical analyses of LCOE for coal, natural gas, nuclear, and hydro assume that the capacity factor for these types of power is unrealistically high at 80% to 90%. The reality is that average capacity factors are much lower and are likely to continue to decrease in the future. When this fact is added to the LCOE analysis these types of power generation are very expensive.

    In 2021 the coal capacity factor was about 49.3% in the US and for combined cycle natural gas the capacity factor was 54.4% (EIA data), but the EIA’s LCOE calculations assume a capacity factor of 87% for combined cycle natural gas power plants.

    1. This kind of vicious cycle of rising costs is a reminder that change can happen fast. The pace of change has been frustratingly slow, but change can seem slow for a long time, and then take off quickly. Clearly the rate of change is accelerating…

    2. Yes, and people say solar has no future because it doesn’t work when the sun isn’t shining. But when the sun is shining, it comes at an unbeatable price, reducing the capacity factor of any fuel based electricity. Even if the owner is losing money, or bankrupt, there is never an incentive to shut down solar, as long as electricity prices are above zero. So capacity factor is never a problem (well at least during the day).

      The more renewables there are, the worse the economics of traditional power plants looks. LCOE is only part of the problem.

      1. A little push back on that notion.
        With solar it is unbeatable when deployed in a sunny area- it has decent capacity factor with low cost and very good payback period.

        But if you deploy solar in an area with lots of clouds and far from the equator, the equation is relatively unfavorable. The capacity factor becomes poor and the payback period very long.

        I speak as one with personal experience watching the roof top energy output plummet severely during cloudy periods, and seeing the entire state solar energy output plummet during winter.

        Like with wind, these mechanisms of perpetual energy source capture are only relatively favorable when deployed in the choice locations.
        The capacity factor of individual installations can vary wildly, depending on how windy or sunny the location is.
        It is much harder to afford, or get funding for, installations that are not in the favorable areas.

        1. Hickory, a couple of thoughts.

          First, let’s remember our baseline, which is fossil fuels. Is solar better than, say, coal? Sure. You can’t dig coal out of your backyard. Solar is good for the majority of locations and countries, while coal is found in relatively few countries, and not in anybody’s back yard. Most countries have good solar resource somewhere, while few have coal, or oil, or gas.

          Why do we expect wind and solar to be a domestic resource? We don’t expect that of fossil fuels. Most countries can eliminate energy imports with wind & solar, but not all. Why is this a problem? Wind and solar are still much better in terms of geographical distribution than FF.

          2nd, solar is one resource, but a sensible grid has diverse resources. In particular, wind and sun are inversely correlated, with more wind at night and in winter. It makes no sense to look at them in isolation.

          Except, you can’t really do both wind and solar in a residence. It’s nice that solar can be done in distributed, small locations like residences. The fact that this isn’t doable everywhere, and can’t be combined with wind, isn’t really a shortcoming. We should be grateful for the locations (and times of the day and year) where small solar is useful, and not consider the fact that this isn’t universally possible a problem.

        2. Hickory —
          I wasn’t being too clear. The point is that you can’t beat solar on price once its installed, because marginal costs are zero. So even if the LCOE is high, and the initial investment is proving to be a mistake, solar wins in the market.

          It works like a ratchet. In an imaginary market where there is only solar and gas, when gas prices are high investors will build solar, and solar will win market share. When gas prices are low, investors may prefer gas, but gas can’t take market share from solar, even though it is cheaper, because there is never an incentive to shut down the solar plant, even if it is losing money. Solar solar share constantly grows eating into the capacity factor of gas.

          So the weather determines the capacity factor of solar, but the market doesn’t. The low capacity factors of the plants Dennis was talking about are caused by market problems that simply don’t apply to solar.

          2. Alim yes.
            Although there is a problem with production curtailment.
            i hope it is temporary .
            The grid operators shut down production from certain producers at times when the grid is oversupplied.
            Its happened to all sorts of plants, including solar and wind.
            Long duration storage mechanisms or other uses such ammonia production may be deployed to prevent this, but it does currently wreak some havoc on the power plants actual capacity factors and economics.

            1. Hickory,

              When wind, solar and nuclear are at relatively low market share, as they are now almost everywhere, curtailment is a sign of bad grid management. California has higher renewable market share than most: they started to curtail solar and then figured out how to compensate with better management of import & export transmission flows.

              Places like Texas, that don’t have out-of-system transmission, can’t do that, but they should have other strategies, including curtailment of gas (or even coal), and batteries (for short duration events).

            3. Hickory,

              That’s an interesting article. It seems to support my intuition that colocated storage isn’t optimal for the grid, as it isn’t available for grid management in general.

              Let me give a brief example of unnecessary curtailment. Let’s assume that the average consumption in an ISO’s area is 50GW, with a minimum of 25GW and a max of 75GW. Overall capacity of all sources might be 120GW. Now, let’s assume that solar power has reached 5GW of capacity (with a capacity factor of 20%), and wind has reached 10GW (with a capacity factor of 33%). Their average output should be 4.3GW, and their peak output could reach 15GW.

              4.3GW average renewable output in a grid with average overall output of 50GW is a market share of 8.6% of energy output. At a maximum output of 15GW their share at the point of minimum consumption (of 25GW) might reach 60%).

              So…if under the worst conditions renewables are only at 60% market share, why would curtailment be necessary?

              As market share rises the possibility of renewable output exceeding total consumption will rise, but it won’t rise quickly due to the law of large numbers: as systems get larger their variance becomes less important (standard deviations around the mean become relatively smaller), and they become more predictable.

              Does that help?

            4. You don’t understand the scenario.
              Its ok. Clearly the electrical industry is not your field of expertise.
              Later.

            5. Hickory,

              I’d be happy to hear how I got it wrong – part of the fun of this kind of discussion is learning. And, none of us knows everything.

              So, I’ve given a fairly real-world scenario. Please think about it. If the total renewable capacity is less than the minimum consumption level, how much curtailment would you expect, and why?

  7. I feel like we are in the inverse of what happened in 2011 – 2014, when oil prices were able to stay very high for a long time and it didn’t drag on the economy too much. Now we have equity markets 5 months and double-digit percentages off their highs, a lot of indicators of a decelerating economy, and the Fed coming in hot with 9 rate hikes as current consensus, and yet still prices remain sticky, despite a lot of disinflation. So unlike 2011-14 when high prices didn’t phase the economy, now the economy cannot phase prices. By definition its not stagflation. A little hard to define what’s going on here – but most of it is not good and high oil prices are absolutely not helping. So I think we can finally put the standard D.Coyne retort of “prices were above $100 for years and it didn’t hurt the economy” into its final resting place. High (oil) prices are here to stay and its hurting. If Fed Operation “Break Stuff” is finally successful we may have a brief respite once the job market is obliterated.

    1. Two cats,

      The situation is a bit different with Russian sanctions and a pandemic and the resulting supply disruption, not quite the same situation as 2011 to 2014.

      As to the economic doom many are predicting, I will believe it when I see it.

      1. Hi Dennis,
        If we are collectively lucky, I agree with you.

        Old Man Business As Usual may stagger or hobble along for a long time, maybe even indefinitely. He might even get along without a cane or crutches and look pretty good……… for an old fellow.

        But there are more things that might go seriously wrong, and result in a hard crash of the house of cards we call industrial civilization, than I could list in an hour.

        Can we adapt fast enough to depleting supplies of one time gifts of nature such as oil?
        Maybe we can.
        Maybe not.
        Suppose we wind up fighting WWIII because a relatively minor resource war morphs into a nuclear end game?

        I’ve put a great deal of time into the study of tipping points. It seems to me that while the climate people have a pretty good handle on what they’re doing……….. that maybe the climate can go haywire a LOT faster than even the worst case scenarios.

        There’s a real possibility, which is impossible to quantify, that a major new disease might break out which could pretty well wipe out a staple food crop such as wheat or rice…….. world wide. The odds are pretty good this won’t happen……… but they’re sure as hell not zero.

        I hope you’re right, but my personal opinion remains the same. I believe a hard crash is baked in, but that it’s going to happen piecemeal, time and place, and that barring bad luck, some countries such as the USA are very likely to pull thru more or less whole.

        But I’d rather be in a federal jail here in the USA than to be trapped in a country such as Egypt right now…….. or Saudi Arabia once the oil runs out. .

      2. And the situation was VERY different when QE was nice and fresh and everyone was loving it. Now we are deep in the QE-paint. As for economic doom – my point is that its happening all around us. It’s Long Emergency – or Step-Down as I like to call it. In 2008 everyone took a step or two down their life-long potential economic achievement. Covid was the same. And now we are on the cusp of a post-covid-stimulus downturn. Will it be another year lost? The bond rout is already the greatest in about 50 years. Ramp in inflation highest in 40 years. So I would say its about on par already. Your notion of doom is more like that seen in cinema. My version of doom is the slow crushing of all your hopes and dreams. Well, not for most people on this forum – you all made it out. You did it. Good luck to your kids.

        https://nida.nih.gov/drug-topics/trends-statistics/overdose-death-rates

        Definitely a sign things are going GREAT!

        1. Two cats,

          There are always problems in this World, worldwide collapse (let’s say on the order of the 1929-1033 global economic collapse or worse) seems unlikely to me, but the future is difficult to predict, I think the fact that there was a recent global financial crisis in 2008 (these tend to happen every 70 to 80 years) and global pandemic (about every 100 years) suggests these are not likely events in the near term, based on the previous 150 years of history.

          The biggest threat may be the war in Ukraine and that conflict expanding to WW3. It is too bad that a treaty was not worked out upon collapse of the Soviet Union, codifying the promises made to the Soviets when the reunification of Germany was negotiated in 1990 during the George H. W. Bush administration.

          https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/nato-s-eastward-expansion-did-the-west-break-its-promise-to-moscow-a-663315.html

          1. Based on the below, I don’t think it’s realistic to say that Russia was given promises that NATO would not expand in the longer-term. Verbal assurances in private are not something that any country should rely on for the long-term, and Russia should have known that. One should ask what the western diplomats would have actually agreed to in writing – we can’t know now, but the fact is that they could have but chose not to formalize whatever they said in private.

            Conversely, Russia only a few years later formally, in writing, in public, agreed to the expansion of NATO:

            https://1997-2001.state.gov/regions/eur/fs_nato_whitehouse.html

            https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/feb/28/candace-owens/fact-checking-claims-nato-us-broke-agreement-again/

            1. Nick,

              There were very public pronouncements by the German Foreign minister to this effect, a public speech is not a private conversation. Also lots of deals are made in private with a handshake with not formal treaties signed. That is how the Cuban missle crisis was averted, a private conversation and agreement.

  8. I often comment that our best hope is for a series of Pearl Harbor WAKE UP Events….. but over the last few weeks I wonder if anything short of a big asteroid hitting us, or Yellowstone erupting, will be enough to get our collective attention.

    Half the people I know believe Biden and the Democrats are the source of all our problems.

    The Russian’s invasion of Ukraine doesn’t mean a thing to them.

    1. I think we’ve seen from 9/11 onwards that “pearl harbor events” are just more excuses for graft, tyranny, and delusion. Republicans and Democrats have both lost their collective minds and are speaking a tribal coded gibberish. Russia-gate, Fauci/Gates, Q-Anon. It’s all swirling, swirling, swirling together in the simulacrum of social media. The Right is busy banning math books. The Libs are still prosecuting January 6th. Enjoy!

    2. No.

      But there are wake up events, and there will be some more.

      +100% in one year increased energy bills are wake up moments for many people – here a few people even think about accepting geo energy – even when everyone knows geo energy leads to everyone dying horribly in earth quake fissures.

    3. OFM , wake up events happen everyday in our lives . Recovery from a disease like cancer , untimely death of a very near and dear , missing a drunk driver crash by a milli second etc . They also happen with nations . In today’s world how do you wake up those that are zombified by 24/7 media , fake book etc . Majority of the world is in search of what Andy Warhol called ” 15 minutes of fame ” . Just was reading a YT influencer crashed his plane and videographed his bailout with the GoPro camera so that he could post it on his channel . For guys like you and me (all past expiry dates ) it is a world upside down . Hopeless or hope less ? 🙂

  9. New renewable capacity statistics has been released for 2021 (per country) from IRENA.

    The BRICS countries are especially interesting (might add Indonesia into that mix and even Vietnam). Most of these countries are very stable when it comes to energy security as of now. Brazil is a standout with plenty of hydro power base load, while adding wind power in the east and some solar power as well. Offshore oil will last for some time and they also have a long established biofuel industry (sugar cane based) with questionable economics as for now, but long term not a bad solution when oil is less available. Indonesia have reserves of coal and gas (LNG for exports), and has not really tapped into their renewable potential for now (pretty stable situation though). South Africa relies on coal and mineral exports for the time being – water might be a scarce resource some places. And then comes Russia with all kinds of natural resources when compared to the population. Not very interested in renewable energy; their input to COP 26 was that unless hydro and biomass(wood) are going into the equation, the wind/solar proposition was not really interesting for them. And India; very import dependent and seeking to expand their trade with Russia and the Middle East because of this most likely.

    China probably deserves a whole chapter in a book describing the BRICS nations. Everything going on there is a form of government controlled capitalisim on very high speed. Since the last financial crisis, it seems they have prioritised to expand renewable power capacity in addition to being in the forefront of supplying batteries for electric vehicles. I do not think it is in China’s interest to provoke a war setting this decade, as it is perfectly set up to be a trade hub that the world would rely on (unless poverty is a goal). What happens in practice though could be quite a different story.

    https://irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/Apr/IRENA_RE_Capacity_Statistics_2022.pdf

  10. Mysterious Fires Break Out at Russia Chemical Plant and Defense Facility
    https://www.newsweek.com/russia-fires-tver-defense-chemical-iskander-dmitrievsky-1699970

    Among the products this plant made are the additives needed for advanced rocket/jet fuels, treatments/solvents for servicing metal parts, core input chemicals for explosive and solvents/traces/washes needed to manufacture electronics and circuits. This plant, was a PROCESS CRITICAL Tier 2/3 supplier to dozens/hundreds of suppliers for everything needed in war.

    The extreme damage, perhaps total destruction of this chemical plant is going to have a spectacular and massive impact on the Russian Military.

    Like many industrial sectors in Russia, they tend to be centralized, massive and singular. As per my 1978 criticism of Southern Rhodesia and it’s ill fated Strategic Petroleum Storage Depot… “you shouldn’t have put it all in the same place.”

  11. For a report discussing the various paths that may be traveled by Russia and those who stand in opposition to their expansion, the article linked below is recommended.
    It is pretty long, but worth the read.
    If you skip reading it the punchline as i see it is that this invasion will go on for along time and will impoverish just about everyone. Arms makers will do well.

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/managing-escalation-in-ukraine/?mkt_tok=NjU5LVdaWC0wNzUAAAGD9V9_tCP2d1g9rGv0XNBeVLEq6VtHq3659xwtRqHdAi0IduLVHyHPJVOmontoJ7sizVfWTu0vk-4C8F0FHeZWZHXhzsiyGGBtU8hF9Hh4zwa-JA68U2c

    1. Hicks , Hubbert warned about peak oil and Eisenhower warned about the MIC . Unfortunately this is USA — United States of Amnesia as Gore Vidal termed it . Beyond redemption and help .

      1. Not sure what you are getting at.
        Looks to me like all scenarios are a lose-lose for just about everyone.
        Especially those directly involved, or those dependent on exports from the countries involved.
        I’m sure the leadership of this country is acutely aware of that, in more way than we can imagine.

    2. Thanks Hickory.

      >> As former Deputy National Security Adviser General Rick Waddell has pointed out to the author, “An economy that is self-sufficient in energy and food takes a lot of killing.”
      <<

      True for Russia. I live in the UK which is no way energy and food independent. My globalist friend is totally fine with this, saying "just import it!".

      1. John , I have for several years eyed UK as the first developed country that will hit the wall . Importing 70% energy and 60 % food is unsustainable , but even more important it is an ISLAND . According to Tainter it is the islands that will go first . Sri Lanka is gone . The Caribbean and Mauritius are on the way and so are many others . All islands where tourism was/is the mainstay of the economy are going to be FUBAR . Best of luck .
        P.S : Off subject watch the currency markets . JPY and GBP are going to be devalued . For an importing nation it means inflation .

  12. Why French fascists are so close to power: the mainstream has failed to counter the far right’s pessimism about the state of the country. Americans are making the same mistake.

    “France remains a highly affluent country with a very generous welfare state. After years of economic stagnation, the unemployment rate is now near a record low. So how can a few missteps by an incumbent president, or a few adroit moves by his extremist challenger, be enough to put the far right within arm’s reach of winning the highest office in the country?
    The answer, I believe, has to do with the power of the relentlessly pessimistic narrative told by the far right—and the failure of the rest of society to counter it with a more optimistic vision of the future.

    …A realistic assessment of the present state of Western liberal societies requires a keen eye for the injustices that continue to characterize them. But it also requires an appreciation of the real progress they have made in recent decades.

    When politicians ignore this lesson, and the pessimists start to dominate the public discourse, demagogues like Le Pen and Trump find it that much easier to win power. To keep them in check, political leaders need to recover a realistic optimism—and offer voters of every ethnic and religious group a vision of the future that they would actually be excited to live in.”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/marine-le-pen-french-presidential-election-2022/629615/

    1. It’s a nice idea. However the messaging isn’t the problem. Even if it was, ‘realistic optimism’ sounds pretty bleak to me: “You’ll never see a coral reef, a tropical forest, or a glacier, young people, but by the time you’re my age you’ll be able to swim through the streets of Miami and New Orleans. Vote for Biden.”.

      Real progress in recent decades? Like what? Emitting as much CO2 as all prior recorded history? Cutting down remaining forests at furious rate? Cleaning from the seas 90% of large fish? Doubling world population? Kids and voters hear about this stuff.

      I’d say it has something to do with frightened and deluded people making bad choices. Optimism is a decision, hope is a belief. Fear, anger and shame are feelings and feelings drive most people most of the time.

      The right is just better at enraging people, and there are plenty of things to fear. If the left brings a more optimistic vision of the future to the fight, and the right brings scared and angry people, the left is going to lose that fight every single time.

      1. “You’ll never see a coral reef, a tropical forest, or a glacier, young people,

        Sadly, they don’t care that much. If they did, it wouldn’t be happening.

        They care more about pocket book issues. The core problem is that the 1% have taken all of the economic gains of the last 40 years, leaving most working people to stagnate and lose hope. Fascists blame that stagnation on immigrants, women, people of color…the “other”. Give people hope that they can have a better life, and give them realistic solutions, and they’ll follow. That’s part of how Reagan beat Carter.

        You do have a point though – first you have to get them to stop listening to Fox News and Rupert Murdoch…

  13. “Positive thinking is the only bullshit philosophy that America has contributed to human thought – nothing else.” Very Oprah, and about as efficacious as Dr Phil.

    1. I’ve been expecting 90% global market share of plug vehicles new sales by 2030.
      Its been 2 years now and I think we are on track.

      I was surprised to recently find out that the average vehicle age of US fleet is 12 years. Thats much older than I expected. Cars can last a lot longer than they used to, and since they are very expensive people tend to hold on to them for longer.
      https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a33457915/average-age-vehicles-on-road-12-years/

      1. If you look closely at the article, you’ll see that the increase is small.

        Light vehicle usage is greatest in the first year, with a long tail and much lower utilization for older cars. Several years ago the median point for vehicle miles traveled was at 6 years. IOW, vehicles less than 72 months old accounted for 50% of VMT.

        As a practical matter the average age of cars on the road was 6 years, and that’s not likely to have changed much.

          1. Yes, the fleet averages 12 years, but most of the older ones are sitting around not being driven much…

            It makes a big difference. If new vehicles are driven much more, and they are per the FHWA, then replacing them has a big impact.

            1. Also EV uptake is likely to be stronger for vehicles that are heavily used, because their main financial advantage is operating costs.

              The same applies to horses. They were mostly replace a century ago. There are still quite a few around, but their mileage is low compared to cars.

  17. Russia Likely has Local Air Superiority in Donbas, but it May Not Matter

    “Russian fast jets … lack targeting pods comparable to the Litening or Sniper pods routinely carried by Western multirole fighter aircraft. Targeting pods allow fighter aircraft to orbit above the effective range of MANPADS and anti-aircraft fire, using powerful optics to search for, identify and then designate battlefield targets for precision-guided weapons deliveries by day or by night. The Russian Air Force lacks these pods, and instead relies upon retractable forward-looking sensors with limited zoom and resolution in specialised ground attack aircraft only. This further reduces their ability to effectively identify and hit Ukrainian vehicles and fighting positions without placing themselves at unacceptable risk.”

    https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russia-likely-has-local-air-superiority-donbas-it-may-not-matter

    I’d be pretty shocked if the Russian Air Force suddenly showed themselves to be highly skilled at effective close air support after they’ve shown little evidence of it for the last 8 weeks.

    1. The other thing I read somewhere:

      The russian internal army communication system is between completely bad to not existing. They had to rely on smartphones locked into the ukrainian net sometimes to communicate (some of the sniped generals died to this).

      Normally, as trained in the NATO, forward infantery units can call for air support by giving exact coordinates, and planes or helis can then level the enemy strong point. This doesn’t work for the russian army at all, as seen in this conflict. This fire coordination doesn’t even work good between Artillery and Infantry, so shelling cities is a common task instead clearing the way for the own attack.

      Relying on barraging enemy positions and then making general assaults is a WK1 taktic, or WK2 / Stalin with endless cannon fodder, taking up to 10:1 casualities. This strength is gone for the russian army, so they aren’t successful anymore with the old tactic.

      The US army learned this already in WK2, calling artillery or air support from a local tank on the ground – leading to much less losses.
      Invented it was by the Hitler hordes, stomping France in a few weeks by coordinated air / land assaults. The German tanks have been worse than the france ones in numbers of fire power and armor – but they all had a radio unit to coordinate with themselves, the air force or artillery. The allies at this times(39/40) used flag signals to coordinate tanks, and telephones to contact a general who then perhaps contacted an air base.

      That’s the level the russians have now – and I ask myself why ??

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