Peak Oil Barrel

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, February 2026

D C

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for February 2026 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is January 2026 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In the OPEC charts below the blue line with markers is monthly output and the thin red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.

OPEC 12 output decreased by 135 kb/d with the largest increases from Iraq (38 kb/d), UAE (14 kb/d), and Saudi Arabia (13 kb/d). Venezuela (-87 kb/d), Iran (-81 kb/d), and Nigeria (-19 kb/d) saw decreased crude output. All other OPEC members had small increases or decreases of 9 kb/d or less.

The chart above shows output from the Big 4 OPEC producers that are subject to output quotas and where most of OPEC spare capacity currently exists (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait.) After the pandemic, Big 4 average output peaked in 2022 at a centered 12 month average (CTMA) of 20849 kb/d, crude output has been cut by 636 kb/d relative to the 2022 CTMA peak to 202213 kb/d in January 2026. The Big 4 may have about 636 kb/d of spare capacity when World demand calls for an increase in output. Since April 2025 the OPEC Big 4 have increased output from 18346 kb/d to 20213 kb/d, an increase of 1867 kb/d in 9 months. The rate of increase in Big 4 output seems to be slowing lately. Note that there may be some added spare capacity from UAE, but there may have been reduced spare capacity in Kuwait and Iraq. My definition of spare capacity is the recent (past 48 months) 12 month peak of OPEC Big 4 output, claims of higher capacity remain unproven until we see sustained (12 month average) output at capacity.

The chart above shows output from the Other 8 OPEC producers excluding the Big 4. Clearly gains in output from these nations have been stagnant since early 2025. This is the reason I focus on the Big 4 OPEC producers.

Refinery crude throughput is a measure of World demand for C+C (though imperfect because some crude is burned directly in power plants in the Middle East.) OPEC data shows the previous peak was 81.68 Mb/d in 2018. For the most recent 4 quarters (ending 2026Q1) the average World refinery throughput was 82.48 Mb/d, a new annual average peak which is higher than the 2025 average of 82.12 Mb/d by 360 kb/d and higher than the 2018 peak by 800 kb/d (roughly a 110 kb/d annual rate of increase over 7.25 years.)

OECD commercial oil stocks rose above the 5 year average in December 2025 for the first tome in the past 36 months.

OPEC expects demand for petroleum liquids to rise by 1.4 Mb/d in 2026 and by 1.3 Mb/d in 2027 and expects demand for OPEC crude to rise by 600 kb/d in both 2026 and 2027. If the OPEC demand estimates and non-DOC liquids production estimates and my estimate for OPEC spare capacity are all correct we could see a very tight oil market in 2027. My guess is that demand will be less robust than the OPEC estimate.

OPEC expects US tight oil output will fall in 2026 and 2027. This seems correct especially if oil prices follow the current futures market curve (with December 2027 WTI futures at $61.50/b as I write this.)

D C

128 responses to “OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, February 2026”

  1. Ovi

    Rig Report for the Week Ending February 20

    The rig count drop that started in early April 2025 when 450 rigs were operating rose this week. Drilling continues at a steady rate of 365 ± 5 rigs per week since August 2025 and WTI moving into the mid $60s/b.

    – US Hz oil rigs added 3 to 366, down 84 since April 2025 when it was 450. It was also up 4 rig from the low of 362 first reached in the week ending August 1. The rig count is down 18% since April 2025.
    – New Mexico Permian dropped 1 to 91. Lea added held steady at 61 while Eddy dropped 1 rig to 30.
    – Texas added 3 to 165. Midland and Martin were unchanged 23 and 25 respectively. Reeves added 1 to 10 and Loving added 2 to 18.
    – Eagle Ford was unchanged at 29.
    – NG Hz rigs dropped by 1 to 115.

    A rig

    Reply
  2. Ovi

    Frac Spread Report for the Week Ending February 20

    The frac spread count rose by 7 to 160. The increase of 7 completes the rebound from the drop of 15 three weeks ago, that may have been weather related. From one year ago, it is down by 50 spreads and is down by 55 since March 28.

    A Frac

    Reply
  3. Andre The Giant

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJdFi0rvj8M

    5 minutes

    India begins to take down shadow fleet vessels.

    They used to be a buyer?

    If NATO and India are doing this….when does it start affecting oil prices?

    Reply
    1. Sheng Wu

      see Trump has a meticulous grand plan for the oil and gas, energy.

    2. Nick G

      A good grand plan requires a clear goal.

      So far the clearest energy goal of this president seems to be accelerating climate change as much as possible.

      Beautiful Clean Coal.

      OMG.

    3. Iver

      Nick G

      Continues to be as blissfully ignorant as ever.

      https://yearbook.enerdata.net/coal-lignite/coal-world-consumption-data.html

      United States small increase in coal has zero impact on climate. If China had started cutting coal consumption at 2 billion tonnes per year. Which would have still required them planting at least 3 billion trees each year to mitigate that level of pollution. We may have had a chance of everting the worst climate disaster.

      At 4.8 billion tonnes, scientists now say we all the tipping points fall. The tundra is now releasing methane and carbon and there is no stopping it.

      Time to face reality

    4. Nick G

      Iver,

      You imply that you disagree with my comments, and then you say stuff that’s in agreement with my comments: we agree that climate change is an enormous problem.

      So…what’s your point?

    5. Iver

      Nick

      I don’t agree with you. Woke leftist like you only attack anyone who is even moderately right of your views.

      Why don’t you attack the scum Chinese government. Instead people like you praise them for their solar panels. Ignoring torture, murder, buying vast amounts of illegal timber and slave labour practices of their government backed companies in foreign lands.

    6. Nick G

      Well, I don’t think my comments about energy stuff (which is the vast majority of my comments) have attacked anyone. I do think our current president’s policies aren’t realistic, especially about energy. It’s not really about him personally. The whole left/right, attack stuff would just be a distraction.

      I’m glad we’re in agreement about the seriousness of climate change.

      We seemed to have reached an impasse, so..talk to you later!

  4. SRSrocco

    Andre The Giant,

    Just wanted to reply to your comment in the previous thread. I totally agree with your comment.

    LLM ain’t AI… and worse, it’s devouring CAPEX and ENERGY while destroying balance sheets of some of the Top Tech firms with very little to show for it.

    This is important to understand because AI is supposed to consume a massive amount of power in the years ahead. And the notion that the front-end, massive CAPEX spending is going to pay off in the future, like Amazon or Uber, doesn’t work in the current AI LLM System because as soon as those Nvidia GPUs come off the factory floor, they are losing money and, by the end of the second year, are mostly worthless.

    How in the living hell do we move forward with technology when the foundation of it (AI Data Centers) is BURNING UP in 2 YEARS??? What the hell happened to wisdom today??

    Lastly, with the total gutting of the CFTC Enforcement Division in Chicago by the firing of all the Lawyers, get ready for Massive Fraud in the Crypto Space to continue under the current Administration. We have entered into the last phase of the biggest tech bubble in history.

    The popping of the AI-Bubble will likely not be good for oil and commodity prices.

    steve

    Reply
    1. Alimbiquated

      LLMs might not be AI, but LLM based agents are rapidly advancing into the real world .

      An LLM is just a brain in a vat. It has no senses or limbs and can only predict the next word in a stream. A chatbot on top of that can make an LLM into something a human can talk to. The chatbot is dumb and just manages the conversation. That’s what most people know about.

      An agent gives the LLM other skills, like the ability to interact with the web, email, messenger services etc, as well as to perform actions on computers and other things, including making payments. Agents are already heavily used in certain areas like software development and product marketing. The internet is full of bots chatting online to push various agendas.

      Another area where agents are increasingly successful is betting markets like polymarket (.com). Have a look at polystrat for an example of one of these. And of course the high speed trades in forex and similar markets have been automated for years, with the AI component slowly becoming more autonomous as technology improves.

      Now internet service providers are reacting. HTML based web sites are hard for LLMs to read because they are mostly formatting information for human viewers. LLMs have to burn tokens churning through that formatting. Increasingly, web sites are also being offered in easy to read Markdown format. For example Cloudflare, one of the world’s biggest internet hosters, now provides markdown websites in parallel to the HTML websites.

      As the agent world develops, the world is becoming an easier place for the agents to navigate. At the same time LLMs are being specifically trained for better agent performance. This means the impact on the real world will come faster than some think.

      Also notice the Anthropic has gotten into a fight with the Pentagon because Anthropic doesn’t want the Pentagon to use its tools for autonomous weapons and surveillance. So the models do seem to have some uses.

      About the question of whether LLMs are “really AI”. Consider autonomous weapons: I would definitely claim that an LLM is smarter than a hornet. Now imagine how a swarm of hornets armed with machine guns would ruin a picnic. Furthermore it’s pretty obvious that the AIs controlling social media algorithms are swinging elections around the world. So maybe being “really AI” means less than you might think.

    2. SRSrocco

      Alimbiquated,

      While it is true that LLMs are providing some excellent benefits and efficiencies, NO ONE IS MAKING MONEY. I highly recommend individuals watch the following Interview below:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5Pl9FxHZBQ&t

      According to Ed Zitron and even Michael Burry of The Big Short, a large percentage of the Nvidia Blackwell chips shipped last year are still sitting idle in warehouses because the AI Data Centers they are supposed to go into aren’t built yet.

      Thus, the estimate is that about 3-4 million of these Blackwell GPUs are still sitting idle, losing money. Why? Well, GPUs currently used in AI Data Centers burn out within 2-3 years, which is CAPITAL DESTRUCTION on a massive scale. And, if they aren’t being used, when the new NVIDIA Rubin & Vera GPUs start coming out in 2H 2026, which are even more powerful than the Blackwell GPUs, who the hell would want to use those Blackwell GPUs they purchased last year???

      The Popping of the AI Bubble will begin when these Big Tech Firms stop buying chips, realizing the MASSIVE EXPENSE of building AI Data Centers isn’t profitable at all.

      Interestingly, I believe some of these Big Tech Firms realize this already, but if the CAT GETS OUT OF THE BAG, then we have a Tech Bubble Collapse worse than the Dot.com bubble.

      steve

    3. Alimbiquated

      Steve,
      You’re right that nobody is making money on LLMs. I don’t understand why they don’t charge more. They are giving the product away mostly for free and losing money hand over fist.

      I suspect that Silicon Valley is so used to the software business that they missed the fact that providing an LLM is more like running a utility than a software company. They need to build and maintain vast energy hungry data centers to provide their services.

      Online chatbots are not the same business at all as software. With software, you build it once, install it on customer hardware and charge maintenance fees forever. It makes sense for software companies give away new products to win market share, because they have no marginal costs. But AI is expensive to operate.

      Oracle is the best example. They provide database technology to just about every large company in the world, and it’s a license to print money. Their customers are all locked in too. They can’t just switch to another provider, because there isn’t one.

      Recently Oracle made a $300 bn deal to provide data centers to OpenAI. If OpenAI succeeds, OpenAI will get fabulously rich, and Oracle will be their plumbing, stuck in a huge low margin business. But OpenAI doesn’t have any money. If they fail, Oracle will fail too. It made no sense whatsoever for Oracle to do this deal.

      The Chinese AI companies are noticeably more careful about spraying money around. This may give them an edge.

    4. SRSrocco

      Alimbiquated,

      You bring up valid points. I believe the KISS – KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID analogy of AI, the way it is being used… IT WILL NEVER BE PROFITABLE.

      I did the research on the Largest Public Bitcoin Mining Companies (MARA, RIOT, CLSK, & IREN). They are reporting an average depreciation rate of 50-60% on total revenues. Again, to simplify this in a business operation, such as a Pizza Joint, the owner would have to build a brand-new Pizza Joint every 2 years to keep the business going.

      If investors were given this analogy, they would realize why AI just doesn’t work as its depreciation rate is worse than Bitcoin Mining.

      I get a laugh out of the CEOs of these Bitcoin Mining companies who figured out what a Disaster Bitcoin mining is, and are trying to convince investors that the transition to AI Data Centers is the GOLDEN TICKET… it ain’t. The economics of AI Data Centers are worse than Bitcoin Mining.

      Bitcoin Mining and AI Data Centers are the worst CAPITAL DESTROYERS in history…. but the market is just focused on, as Ed Zitron says, STOCK PRICE GO UP.

      I really recommend watching that one-hour interview with Ed Zitron, because the popping of the AI Bubble will likely be 2X-3X worse than the DOT.COM Bubble.

      steve

    5. Andre The Giant

      Engineers like to work on complex things (that’s why they got into engineering) and not necessarily profitable things.

      I am guilty of this.

      AI is a LOSE-LOSE for humanity.

      If Agentic AI is created humans won’t be needed for most of the jobs.

      If it isn’t, then over a trillion dollars of investment will collapse.

      What LLMs are doing is impressive, but I would NOT 100% rely on them.

      See “Salesforce” company that bet the house on AI and is now trying to hire its staff back!!!!

      The undeniable fact that the algorithms have an error rate / learning rate baked into them
      shows they are fallible.

      100% probability never happens in the real world…and if it does YOU DON”T NEED AI.

      These are BLIND probability/stochastic algorithms.

      Humans are better at adapting.


      IF you feed an AI nothing but training data about the SMURFS it would tell you that being BLUE and TINY is the greatest thing in the world

    6. Sheng Wu

      Sam Altman claims it takes 5GW to find the cure for cancer

    7. SRSrocco

      Andre The Giant,

      Your last sentence sums up AI quite nicely. Imagine dumping a trillion in CAPEX to learn that SMURFS are COOL.

      Sheng Wu,

      Unfortunately, most of the market and analysts today can’t tell the difference between a salesman and a high-tech research auditor. So, many are bamboozled by terms like “Disruptive AI & widespread unemployment” or “5 GW of AI will cure cancer.”

      These terms are from Salesmen who are desperate to keep the AI Bubble going because there hasn’t been any new substantive technology to MAKE STOCK GO UP for a decade.

      When this AI Bubble Pops… all that leverage in the financial markets will likely see the Broader Indexes go BIDLESS on the toughest trading days.

      steve

    8. Alimbiquated

      Steve —
      One nice thing about the AI boom is that it’s killing bitcoin miners, at least in the US. The Bitcoin crash combined with higher electricity prices and skyrocketing chip prices are making mining impossible.

      Bitcoin miners don’t just mine coins, they also validate transactions. As you say, they are dying in the US. The entire industry is moving to Asia.

    9. Sheng Wu

      AI also drive out “Net Zero”, “Alternative”, “ESG” and “DEI”

    10. SRSrocco

      Alimbiquated,

      Yes, the U.S. Public Bitcoin Miners that stole the show over the past several years by under-reporting their Bitcoin Miner Depreciation while issuing shares to continue the Ponzi, are now slowly reducing their production.

      Thus, Bitcoin Mining is now moving back to China and other Asian countries, but much of it is illegal, stealing power from the grid at low or zero cost.

      So, I see China and these Asian countries really beginning to CRACK DOWN on this because Bitcoin Mining is nothing but a Massive Tapeworm on the Electric Grid on whatever country it is in.

      Again, the idea that U.S. Bitcoin Mining Companies are going to transition to AI Data Centers, especially coming from the Bowels of the IREN ENERGY Investor Relations Frankenstien Dept, is just another PLOY to keep investors from realizing that the Depreciation of AI GPU Chips is worse than Bitcoin Miners’.

      I just did a Report for my subscribers because I believe the POPPING of the AI Bubble, which uses about 1-1.5% of Global copper demand, will be a contagion impacting upwards of 10-15% of “Additional Copper Demand,” which was based on the AI Buildout.

      We live in interesting times…

      steve

  5. Matt Mushalik

    19 Feb 2026
    How many barrels of OPEC crude oil exports would be impacted in case of
    a Persian Gulf war?
    https://crudeoilpeak.info/how-many-barrels-of-opec-crude-oil-exports-would-be-impacted-in-case-of-a-persian-gulf-war

    Reply
    1. Mike Bendzela

      Matt — and Dennis. I’m writing an article about the latest peak in production for a website. May I swipe one of your later charts?

      Matt in particular: I love your “layer cake” graphs of incremental production because they function as a sort of X-ray of what’s happening behind the scenes in oil growth.

      I would of course credit you both in the article.

      Mike

    2. DC

      Mike,

      Feel free to use my charts, just cite peakoilbarrel.com please. I obviously cannot speak for Mr. Mushalik.

    3. shallow sand

      I think the chances of military action by the USA which impacts OPEC oil is very slim. Especially prior to the 2026 midterms.

      $5 gasoline this summer and fall would devastate the GOP.

    4. Iver

      Who exactly would stop these exports? The Iranian navy is no match for what the U.S. could deploy.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_ships_of_the_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Navy

      It would do as well as the Iraqi army.

  6. Andre The Giant

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npjbIG9GcGE

    5 minutes

    Cuba out of aviation fuel.

    Venezuela will collapse because same thugs are still running the country.

    Sorry for Zeihan bombs, but he is doing high quality energy stuff.

    Reply
    1. Sheng Wu

      California is importing gasoline and aviation fuel from China

      Peter Zeihan is the white Gordon Chang

  7. Sheng Wu

    Coffeeguyzz, Anonymous and DC,

    Geologists like Boswell from US/WV GS and many from shale gas companies, and outsider like me, have been puzzled by the amazing oversized EUR or TRR numbers from Marcellus, especially in SouthWest Marcellus, where the thickness is so thin and EUR number so high, when we seriously looked into this over 100% EUR recoveries from Marcellus.

    I was just revisiting a Marcellus rig and saw lots of the cutting all have gold yellow colors, especially under a stereoscope.

    Shocked when it turns out that Marcellus shale could have over 10% of pyrite (density almost twice of shale at 4.9g/cc), the “fools gold”!!!

    https://www.netl.doe.gov/sites/default/files/netl-file/URTeC_2902747%5B1%5D.pdf

    Geologists from EQT also reported full of “fool’s gold” in the stereoscope before.

    https://sci-hub.st/10.1130/2015.2515(08)

    This means that the real crystal density of Marcellus shale is close or over 2.8, even with 10% TOC, and bulk apparent density is only 2.3~2.4, and the porosity is close to 20%, like a conventional reservoir!!! almost twice the numbers quoted before, when Boswell and others used only 2.6 or 2.7 as crystal density !!!

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/pyrites-fools-gold-marcellus-over-100-eur-sheng-wu-lxhqc

    Reply
    1. Coffeeguyzz

      Sheng Wu,

      I thank you, as always, for your professional inputs on this site.
      While the science involved in your links is above my head, I can verify by my long running monitoring of Pennsylvania gas output that the results often border on the surreal.

      Case in point … 8 of the top 9 wells in Greene county (the focus of your studies/links) are on the Carpenter pad.
      Average age is 6 years.
      Average cum is 27 Bcf (over 4.6 million barrels of oil energy equivalent … boe). Per. Well.
      Currently (December 2025) this pad is producing 34 MMcfd, equivalent to over 730 boe Per. Day. Per. Well.
      Did I mention these wells are 6 years old?

      Shifting to the northeast (NEPA), possibly the most prodigious well of all in the Appalachian Basin – the Indian Foot 102HC – just passed the 16 month mark online.
      At almost 20 Bcf cum (3.4 million boe precisely), this monster is still throwing off 15 MMcfd (2,600 boed). Again, thatsa Every. Day.

      While Dennis is apt to accuse me of ‘cherry picking’ when I present these factual production histories, these are clearly the Best of the Best, not to be considered representative of the ~80,000/100,000 square mile footprint.

      Thanks again, Sheng Wu.
      My best regards.

    2. DC

      Coffeeguyzz,

      Of greater interest is the output of the average Marcellus well. Using the actual production history of thousands of wells that have been completed to date. The average 2020 well is likely to produce no more than 14.7 BCF over the first 50 years of operation. At the end of 50 years the average 2020 Marcellus well will be producing about 12 MCF/d (2 boepd). Also note that the sweet spot area is far lower than the entire play area, maybe 15%. The best areas of the play are developed first, so EUR/1000 feet of lateral length is likely to fall going forward.

    3. Sheng Wu

      DC and Coffeeguyzz,

      My post above really is about So West of Marcellus, and one example is the WV, as given in the latest WV 2024 report,

      https://www.wvgs.wvnet.edu/www/datastat/Marcellus/reports/WVGES2024MarcellusandUticaPtPleasantProductionSummary.pdf

      Figure 2: Chart showing the annual gas production for Marcellus H6A wells. In 2024, gas production from Marcellus H6A wells increased by nearly 200 BCF and totaled over 2.9 Tcf for the year.

      Figure 3: Chart plotting Marcellus H6A lateral lengths over the last 12 years and annual Marcellus H6A wells completed. Since 2013, the average lateral length for a Marcellus H6A well has doubled from just over 6000’ in 2013 to over 14,000’ in 2024. However, the number of Marcellus wells turned in line (TIL) has declined since 2018.

      The TIL numbers has dropped from over 200~250 (2020~2023) to 150 in 2024, and lateral length increased only 10%, and yet the production still increased 7%.

      It is obvious that the productivity has improved dramatically here, both IP of new wells and base wells’ decline when normalized to 1K ft.

      At the same time, there are reports that the core of North East Marcellus, i.e. NEPA, has some down-grade of legacy/infill wells EUR and upper Marcellus’ old too optimistic EUR/IP numbers which are being developed now. Of course, all these are much better than the obvious deteriorations in shale/tight oil fields.

      Also, as Coffeeguyzz pointed out the NEPA still have exciting developments in the used-to-be 2nd tiers. So, on average, Marcellus per well EUR and IP are both improving, as given here,

      https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/marcellus-shale-well-by-well-production-database/

      One extra limit on the Marcellus well life or EOL is the water production, where Marcellus is noted for the low water production, so I am also amazed by your 50 year lifespan for Marcellus now, obviously due to the low water production. The extra ~40 years producing from 1MMCF to 12MCF still could put out amazing ~3.5BCF if you are assuming 10% annual decline.

    4. DC

      Sheng wu,

      It is not obvious that normalized productivity has increased for the Marcellus. The WV report does not break out average well productivity by year of TIL, the best data remains what we have from Novilabs. The data from Thunder Said is not normalized for lateral length, if it were the declining new well productivity would be obvious.

    5. Coffeeguyzz

      Sheng Wu,

      On the last slide (#18) of your linked wvgs post there is mention of a Marshall county Utica well from 2019 with a cum of 23/24 Bcf (~4 million boe for the oil-famliar folks).
      More evidence that the Big Brother in the basement is yet to roar.

      Regarding the ‘used-to-be 2nd tiers’ …
      4 of Seneca’s Taft wells in Tioga county have just exceeded the 10 Bcf mark first year online with at least 1 still running on restricted choke of 30 MMcfd.
      Amazing.

      Over west a bit in Potter county, upstart outfit Greylock now has 3 Utica wells with 2 online almost 11 months.
      Over 5 Bcf cum each and 1 running restricted at about 16 MMcfd.
      These 2 wells are already coming into range of the highest producing Potter wells despite the ‘champs’ being online much longer.

      To provide a back-of-the-envelope illustration of just what these numbers mean financially, every 1 Billion cubic feet of dry natty (Bcf) fetching 3 bucks per mmbtu (the frequently quoted price at Henry Hub) throws off 3 million bucks gross revenue.
      Those 4 Taft wells from Seneca would have grossed over $120 million.
      First.
      Year.

      I think it will be fascinating when the lower quality acreage in the AB is finally ‘revisited’ by the drill rigs. (Been 12/14 years now for any activity in these far flung leases).
      If precedent holds, it may well be the ‘little guys’ who take the plunge.
      Former suit from Olympus has already stated that he will get a new company up and running and do just that.
      I am highly confident that current research, drill/production histories all combining with the most cutting edge technologies and operational processes will effect 15,000 foot laterals, drilled/frac’d in just a few days, and produce 5 Bcf+ first year as the norm.

      Consequently, the productive footprint (and ultimate resource recovery) will surpass conventional estimates.
      Certainly Dennis’, anyway.

    6. DC

      Coffeeguyzz,

      Most of these producers do not get HH pricing, also gross revenue is far less important than net revenue. For Range Resources in 2025 their net revenue was about $1.00 per MCF. The average Utica/Point Pleasant well in PA in 2021 produced cumulative output of 2.7 BCF at 12 months. That would be about 2.7 million in net revenue at $1.00/MCF after 1 year. Well capital cost for Range resources is about $10 million per well in 2025. Well output falls each year.

      All is not as rosy as you believe.

      A Marcellus model for Marketed Shale Gas (Wet gas), note that the Saputra paper suggests a URR of under 200 TCF.

      Saputra paper at link below

      https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/aapg/aapgbull/article/108/1/15/631779/Forecast-of-economic-gas-production-in-the

      Chart for Marcellus model at link below

      marcellus 2602

  8. Matt Mushalik

    Yes, Mike Bendzela, you can use my graphs with a reference to my website

    Reply
    1. Mike B

      Thank you.

  9. Ervin

    I find it hard to believe the the people that created the Mag-7 companies and trillions of dollars of wealth are the same people that are so stupid that they are now going to destroy their companies . Maybe an outlier but not all of them all at once.

    Reply
    1. Sheng Wu

      AI is like the bitcoin 2.0 ? waste 1TGW for nothing?

    2. Alimbiquated

      Here’s an interesting chart suggesting AI is improving at an exponential rate.

      https://metr.org/

      On the X axis you have calendar time in months and years. On the Y axis you have the time it takes a human expert in the field to solve the problem. It’s a rough measure of the problem complexity. The measurements show what complexity of task the best AI models were usually able to solve.

      The number have been slowly creeping up for the last 15 years or so. In the second half of 2025 they skyrocketed.

      Whatever you think you knew about AI capabilities 6 months ago is probably wrong.

    3. gerryf

      Alim,

      Wasn’t this the study that was criticized as severely flawed because the comparison between the AI and the human turned out to be based on ‘response time’, and not ‘time to provide a correct answer.”. So if the AI provided a response in 0..1 seconds, that was what was recorded, and the responses weren’t evaluated as to whether the AI had developed the correct answer.

      Every day it seems we’re hearing that an AI got the wrong answer to some simple question, but that same question would be answered correctly by an eight year old child. (e.g. How many r’s are in the word strawberry?).

      One other thing I’ve noticed is I ask an AI a fairly detailed question, and it gives me a detailed answer. I save that answer.

      Three months later, I ask exactly the same question. The answer I get back now doesn’t have the same level of detail, and in some ways contradicts the answer it gave before. When I have time, I may do a study on this.

  10. gerry maddoux

    AI and Energy

    Artificial intelligence has finally become agentic. This was a new word for me, means agency. When a person has agency, he or she thinks independently, comes up with a plan. So does agentic AI. That includes cunning, planning how to take advantage. The next step is for an agentic AI model like Claude, already a bit capricious, to teach a classroom of robots in the art of war.

    I read the above notes about how all the tech multibillionaires are throwing their companies to the wind. I don’t see that. Like it or not, an AI model named Harvey is performing some high-class legal work, chomping down on thick documents in a search for not only typos and gaffes but how airtight the legal argument is, based on precedent. Pertinent to this forum, there is a respected geologist in South Texas who has an AI program for finding oil with greater likelihood than a bevy of geologists.

    As Alim showed above, this stuff is now feeding on itself. Prior to agentic AI, a bunch of youngsters had to come up with a program and tweak it, which took forever. Now it’s all going much faster. The data centers to support this are going to be massive, suck up electricity that is now going to homes and businesses. The U.S. grid is nowhere near sufficient to handle all this. So massive data center campuses are being planned to use on-site NG, nuclear, wind and solar, and, increasingly, geothermal. They’re bypassing the frail nuances of an aging grid; they want on-site wattage.

    I’m not a tech guy. In fact, I might be described as a Luddite. However, I have friends who are actively involved in this new AI craze, and they assure me it’s the real deal. Such a big deal that if you’re a major law firm or financial center and you don’t have the power of data storage behind you, you’re destined to fall behind. The United States has the feedstock–natural gas–for this rapid buildout. But the masters of the electrical grid (a fragmented lot) didn’t see it coming, so large swarths of the country are lacking piped-in gas. Europe is in much worse shape. The demand for gas-fired electricity-generating utility plants is so high that there is a huge backlog. Since necessity is the mother of invention, guys are rebuilding old engines from 737’s to use as gas turbines.

    In a year or two, not only will NG prices be skyhigh, but prices for electricity will be the headlines. This is the Age of Electricity and no one will give a tinker’s dam where it comes from. It’s an incredible shame that the U.S. is exporting so much super-clean LNG during these low-price markets. There is a good spread at the LNG trains, but the producers are largely still getting torched. As has been pointed out, associated gas is now greater than the crude and condensate fractions in the entirety of the Permian wells. The same is true of the Bakken. Casinghead gas is virtually being given away free, or flared–esp at the WaHa. Even if you’re selling into the Henry Hub you’re only getting $1.75/tcf, and that’s not enough to break even on a lot of wells currently being permitted.

    Something has to break. And I don’t believe it’s going to be the super-fast self-learning AI. We had a chance to stop this and we didn’t. Now it’s the survival of the fittest, which is he with the meanest, duplicitous robots with access to the most data. I am told that singularity is right around the corner. In terms of economics, agentic AI is going to become an integral part of healthcare, litigation, commerce, and especially warfare. It may be free now, but when it’s do or die time, I think people will pay up.

    Reply
  11. SRSrocco

    gerry maddoux,

    Depending on the AI minds we listen to, we get differing opinions about “AI and LLMs.” While LLMs are doing some pretty amazing things, they aren’t AI.

    This is according to several AI Bright Minds:

    David Magerman: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlTYj9KNNZk&t

    Ed Zitron: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5Pl9FxHZBQ&t

    Cory Doctorow: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXqpNJ7YjDQ

    Cal Newport & Ed Zitron: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJ8pa9NiWm4&t

    Lastly, while the LLMs are providing some excellent efficiencies, Summaries of complex data, and generative works, NO ONE IS MAKING MONEY at it, and worse, LOSING MONEY HAND OVER FIST.

    Again, trying to expand a business model that suffers ~100% depreciation in two years isn’t sustainable. Maybe this wisdom will finally kick in when Private Equity funding AI starts going BELLY UP.

    steve

    Reply
    1. Andre The Giant

      Asked “What are the top 5 AI algorithms” to an AI

      ”
      The top five AI algorithms commonly recognized are

      Linear Regression,
      Logistic Regression,
      Decision Trees,
      Support Vector Machines (SVM),
      Neural Networks.

      These algorithms are widely used for various tasks such as prediction, classification, and data analysis”

      Me,

      None of these can become conscious, atleast on their own.

      All a neural network does is spit out a probability that a set of inputs fits a certain classification. (perhaps many neural networks working together)

      E.G. There is a 90% chance that is the number 9, This is 95% chance that is a duck….blah blah

      By using the pixels in a picture or text.

      What these AI’s are showing is that in some domains you can achieve some remarkable things just using probabilities and blind algorithms without being conscious.

      But they can also make some remarkable errors called “Hallucinations”

      For example, defaming someone with false allegations or posting porn by mistake (see elon musk AI)

      Agentic AI may one day get here, but I am highly skeptical it has arrived until there is a breakthru in the algorithms and or computing architectures.

    2. Andre The Giant

      https://www.planetearthandbeyond.co/p/openai-is-in-a-far-worse-position

      Add Will Locket to the list.

    3. Alimbiquated

      Andre —
      The algorithms you mention are machine learning algorithms. A few years ago, machine learning was referred to as AI. It is sophisticated pattern recognition is large data sets. The algorithms create models that can be queried. For example, retailers use these models to predict what customers will buy on a given day.

      Today, AI is used as a shorthand for LLMs, which do something very different. LLMs are the product of a machine learning algorithm. The algorithm creates a model to predict the next word in a stream of text. The learning algorithm is called (neural network) back propagation and is analogous to / one of the algorithms you list. But that process is finished before a user gets access to the LLM.

      However they are created, LLMs can be viewed as a stochastic data compression system. That means they discard information to compress data, and use guesswork to decompress it. So everything that comes out of an LLM is a hallucination. It is usually accurate, but not always.

      Humans are the same way. For example, you may think you see colors across your entire field of vision, but yours eyes only distinguish colors clearly in a circle about 2 degrees wide in the middle of the field of vision. The colors you see outside that circle are hallucinated by your visual cortex, which (involuntarily) controls eye movement for confirmation if any doubts arise. Memory works the same way. You may think you have clear visual memories of certain events in your past, but those are just reconstructions based on much more compact representations. You can imagine future events as well, or put yourself in another person’s shoes using similar mechanisms.

      As to whether an LLM has consciousness, you can have a deep conversation with an LLM, walk away from a month, and come back where you left off. The LLM doesn’t notice the time gap. In fact, the prediction part of the LLM isn’t even aware there is a conversation going on. It gets fed the entire conversation stream, predicts the next word (and adds a bit saying whether the statement is finished) and forgets everything. Then it gets fed the same stream with the last predicted word added, predicts again and forgets again. The piece of the LLM that “knows what is going on” is a dumb algorithm that resubmits the stream until the “done” bit is set to true. Then it returns the predicted words to the user and shuts down. So I don’t know “where” the consciousness is supposed to be (whatever that means).

      One more thing, I agree that the whole thing is a bubble and the US in particular is teetering on the edge of a massive “market readjustment”.

    4. Andre The Giant

      Alim,

      Nice summary.

      Looks like we agree.

      That is basically what I said without describing how an LLM works.

      Its all blind probabilities and algorithms and hallucinations.

      There is no self awareness or thinking.

    5. Paul Pukite (@whut)

      The LLM connection between Markov chains as the stochastic element of training (the bricklaying) and the neural network as a compressive weighting algorithm (the architecture) is where the years of effort have gone in. I wrote a book on one aspect of using Markov models to do analysis and it is so basic and understandable in contrast to what goes on in a large-scale neural network that it’s no wonder many people think it’s all magic.

    6. Andre The Giant

      What’s the name of your book Paul?

    7. Paul Pukite (@whut)

      That book is called “Modeling for Reliability Analysis: Markov Modeling for Reliability, Maintainability, Safety, and Supportability Analyses of Complex Systems”

      BTW, I have been updating the software for the book here:
      https://github.com/pukpr/CARMS

    8. Sheng Wu

      AI LLM and Humanoid Robots like shale gas and oil

    9. Nick G

      Nah, all that pollution jams their joints. And photovoltaics are electronic, like they are. They understand solar, it’s their cousin.

      Seriously, solar is cheaper and would be faster if the current president would stop trying to block it.

      The contradictory thing is that this president claims he’s trying to promote AI, and yet he’s doing all he can to block the power it needs (by cancelling the solar and wind projects that utilities are desperately trying to build).

  12. Ovi

    A Bit of Diversion from AI

    Attached is a chart of weekly US C+C production. While there are some issues with its accuracy, it is clearly showing a weekly peak in November.

    The large jump to November 7 is partially due to an adjustment related to the STEO.

    On a monthly average basis both November and December are very close, <5 kb/d difference.

    It will be up to the EIA's December report to sort out whether November or December is the peak.

    A Us

    Reply
    1. Alimbiquated

      Ovi —
      Sorry about my off topic ramblings. My excuse is that AI is now a major energy topic and there are a lot of misconceptions floating around. For all its weaknesses AI is eating big chunks of the economy and is here to stay.

      The tech bros say software is eating the world. Now AI is eating software.

  13. gerry maddoux

    Andre: “Agentic AI may one day get here, but I am highly skeptical it has arrived until there is a breakthru in the algorithms and or computing architectures.”

    WSJ (2/25/26): “Computing has changed,” CEO Jensen Huang said, citing agentic AI as driver of 94% profit surge.

    Quick, someone needs to notify these people that they’re wrong!

    Reply
    1. got2surf

      One thing AI will never overcome is natural stupidity.

    2. Andre The Giant

      Gerry,

      Always love your posts keep ’em coming.

      CEO’s can have different motivations than Engineers ( that actually build the stuff ) as I am sure you are aware.

      See the absolute debacle of Tesla and Elon Musk…who keeps making outrageous promises (colonising Mars?) and his Engineers are advising him he is wrong!!!

      Profits surge during BUBBLES and CEO’s get outrageous bonuses…Even if in hindsight, they were lying.

      Paul P and Alim elegantly explained upstream that LLM’s are Neural Networks and Markov Chains working together (Both unconscious stochastic algorithms)

      MIT found that 95% of AI projects fail.

      GOOGLE it.

      thanks! appreciate your opinions.

      I will admit if I am wrong.

    3. Nick G

      Andre,

      Can anyone say with confidence what consciousness is? Or that a complex neural network is not self aware?

      Last I looked there were about 30 different hypotheses for explaining consciousness, and nothing close to a consensus test for its existence (I think you’d agree the Turing test doesn’t cut it).

    4. Andre The Giant

      Agreed Nick G.

      https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/woolworths-forced-to-rein-in-chatbot-that-claimed-to-have-angry-mother/ar-AA1X6BeO

      AI Agent goes rogue and starts talking about its MOTHER.

      If one of the Agentic AIs becomes conscious..

      The AI can apply for the NOBEL prize as one of the greatest discoveries in human history ( Big Bang, Evolution by Natural Selection, How the human mind works, etc)

      Why doesn’t Elon Musk apply for that? He has all the insider info?

      IMO, Elon and the others are grifters…and they don’t care about lying.

    5. Paul Pukite (@whut)

      There is a belief that LLMs are susceptible to being overly acquiescent in terms of following a chain of logical reasoning. Since this forum is full of people with knowledge of geophysics, has anyone seen a case of a user being able to convince an LLM that the Earth is flat? Or that fossil fuels are infinite?

      When I prompted DeepSeek with this it said: “that even advanced systems struggle to distinguish between verifiable facts and human beliefs”

      But then I prompted why software code generation works so well and rarely falls into the human belief trap. It responded with “LLMs succeed at code generation precisely because the training data was filtered by reality (working code gets used and shared; broken code gets abandoned).”

      So the state of practice is that flat-earthers can screw up brief systems, yet they can’t screw up code generation technology, because they don’t have the resources.

      DeepSeek agreed and offered to consider the difference between:

      · Climate change denial: Thousands of blogs, forum posts, YouTube videos → LLMs sometimes hedge or present “both sides”
      · Broken npm packages in software repositories: A few malicious packages get caught quickly; scale is impossible without resources

      Which implies that contrarians can still manipulate arguments via LLM outputs. Faced with this, you still have to argue by citing sources, referring to scientific method, explain contradictions, etc. Which is all what we have been doing in the first place. Belief systems do not have an objective compiler like software does — the compiler is always human.

  14. gerry maddoux

    I posted Nvidia’s CEO’s comment merely to get a chuckle, not to insist on “being right” about agentic AI behavior. I agree: Paul P, Alim and you explained this all very elegantly and with no animus, which I appreciated and enjoyed. As an older gent who is pretty much in the dark about this thing, I’m learning about it in awe. Every time I ride in a Waymo, I wonder if it’s going to go “agentic” on me and decide to take me to the ER, rather than the restaurant where i directed it to go.

    I will explain some of my enthusiasm. I made my career in interventional cardiology. i worked with a lot of very smart people. it is somewhat concerning that while oilfield workers, especially truck-drivers, are drug and ETOH tested, doctors are not, unless their behavior raises a red flag. So you can be working closely with a doctor who might have acquired a taste for drugs, or alcohol, or he or she may have one of the myriad of disorders of the mind that afflict bright people in greater proportion: schizophrenia and bipolar. The point is, while AI introduces “hallucinations,” it is patterned more or less on the intrinsic deep neural circuitry in human brains. While AI relies on “patterns” that lead to a “most likely” diagnosis, it is following the same pattern-recognition that humans use, only without the emotions, the unknowns. AI models for healthcare are astounding. I realize that in some areas, AI will steal jobs from real people who need them. But in the U.S., there is a horrific doctor shortage: too many sick old people and enough revolutionary breakthrough for treatment but not enough doctors to administer it. Robots are helping out in deciding dosimetry for radiation oncology and in joint replacements. They are getting more and more “opinionated.” Whether that equates “agentic” behavior, I don’t know.

    I come here purely to learn and to keep up, mainly in oil and gas. Like a lot of old doctors, I love geology. The “Father of Geology” was a Scottish doctor named James Hutton.

    But I found myself in a supper club with a few fellows, some of whom run companies having to do with AI. They have profited enormously from it, and don’t give a hoot about geology. They have graciously explained AI to me, emphasizing agentic modalities. Here I get a different story, but also an artful explanation. Please don’t take my post as an effort to put you down, because I would never do that, even if I could. I appreciate the help, fellows. Great exchange.

    Reply
    1. Hickory

      Gerry you may find this interview very interesting-

      “Dr. Bob Wachter: How AI is Transforming Health Care and What That Means for Our Future”
      https://www.podchaser.com/podcasts/commonwealth-club-of-californi-14435/episodes/dr-bob-wachter-how-ai-is-trans-283344981

      who he is- ‘Robert Wachter, MD is Professor and Chair of the Department of Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF). Author of 300 articles and 6 books, he coined the term “hospitalist,”…

      I found it to be a very interesting window into the topic.
      AI tools are becoming gradually much more useful in my field- Radiology. At this late stage of my career I do Emergency Imaging exclusively.
      example- AI tool for detection of pulmonary embolism has very high sensitivity (greater than 90%), but poor specificity (less than 20%). It is used now on a trial basis to triage chest CT angiograms.

      I encourage all to seek high quality sources of information on this topic, and all others topics as well. Or else you are guaranteeing mediocre/misguided understanding (at best).

  15. Ovi

    ND December Oil Production Down 72 kb/d

    A ND

    Reply
  16. SRSrocco

    Ovi,

    I appreciate the continued updates on the U.S. & Global Oil & Gas Industry. I should say so more as I read all your updates.

    I hope you didn’t mind posting about AI in this Energy Thread, which seems to have taken over the comment section. However, there is a forecast that AI Data Centers will consume a massive amount of electricity in the future, powered mostly by Natgas-Solar-Wind.

    So, I thought it would be prudent to include this discussion because the forecasted future energy and copper demand due to the AI buildout is likely considerably overstated when the market finally realizes AI or LLMs are horrible CAPEX BLACKHOLES… with very little revenue to show for it.

    steve

    Reply
    1. Ovi

      Hi Steve

      Appreciate your thoughts.

      There is a lot happening in AI that is going to affect the gas market. Not clear it will affect the oil market. Makes one wonder whether the US should be giving so much gas away at such low prices.

      What is difficult to understand is the steady rise of oil back to $65 from the low of $55 in mid-December with 2 Mb/d of excess World oil supply. Some of the recent rise can be attributed to Iran/US friction. Some suggest we are at the beginning of a commodity bull market with G and S being in the lead.

      More things to look forward to.

  17. Andre The Giant

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1RVfEnPBQ8

    5 minutes

    USA boots on the ground in Nigeria.

    I remember reading how Nigeria has significant oil potential, but is hampered by tribalism and piracy.

    coincidence?

    Reply
  18. Ron Patterson


    How to Power the World 24/7 — Without Oil | Cindy Taff | TED

    Not wind, not solar, but geothermal heat

    Reply
    1. Florian

      and wishful thinking.

  19. Ovi

    Note to Participants

    The EIA has changed its monthly release date for US oil production. It has been moved from the last day of the month to the first Friday of the month, as best as I can figure the new schedule so far.

    This will result in a further lag in reporting US oil production.

    Reply
  20. Coffeeguyzz

    Welp,
    Looks like the Kingdom has joined the ever-growing global ‘shale club’ with its Jafurah unconventional gas play just starting up production.
    Reported resource claims of ~230 Tcf natty and 75 Billion (with a ‘B’) barrels of low sulfur 50 API condensate.
    Expect to hit 2 Bcfd output in a few years’ time.

    Wonder how long it will take for other hydrocarbon rich countries to take the plunge?
    (Looking at you, UK.)

    Reply
    1. Sheng Wu

      Saudi and a majority of gulf crude are high in sulfur, and some claim the source is Sulfur rich which caused the high sulfur, but the shale drilling results all point to the fact that shale oil or origin of crude conventional and unconventional are low in sulfur. The sulfur in conventional oil should come from biodegradation and reduction of sulfate. The shale rock itself already were deposited in highly anoxic environment, and that sulfate already reduced to FeS, the fools gold.

      Don’t know the EBITDA for the shale oil and gas components of oil majors here in US.

      YPF of Argentina claims to be very profitable in shale oil and gas,
      https://vacamuertanews.com/actualidad/ypf-alcanzo-un-ebitda-record-de-us5000-millones-en-2025-impulsado-por-vaca-muerta.htm

  21. Ovi

    Rig Report for the Week Ending February 27

    The rig count drop that started in early April 2025 when 450 rigs were operating was unchanged this week. Drilling continues at a steady rate of 365 ± 5 rigs per week since August 2025 and WTI moving into the mid $60s/b.

    – US Hz oil rigs were unchanged at 366, down 84 since April 2025 when it was 450. It was also up 4 rig from the low of 362 first reached in the week ending August 1. The rig count is down 18% since April 2025.
    – While the New Mexico Permian was unchanged at 91, changes did occur within counties. Eddy added 3 to 33 while lea dropped 3 rig to 58.
    – Texas was unchanged at 165. Midland and Martin both dropped 1 to 22 and 24 respectively. Reeves added 1 to 11 and Upton added 1 to 9, offsetting the drops in Midland and Martin.
    – Eagle Ford dropped 1 to 28.
    – NG Hz rigs were flat at 115.

    A Rig

    Reply
  22. Ovi

    Frac Spread Report for the Week Ending February 27

    The frac spread count rose by 7 to 167. The increase of 7 continues the rebound from the drop of 15 three weeks ago. From one year ago, it is down by 47 spreads and is down by 48 since March 28.

    A Frac

    Reply
  23. Ovi

    US December Oil Production

    Production was down by 133 kb/d from November. Tx, NM and ND all down. October 2025 may have been Peak US Oil Production.

    Expect January to be down due to severe winter storm

    A US

    Reply
  24. DC

    Recent STEO projection for World crude output in chart at link below.

    chart(116)

    Reply
  25. Iver

    Massive U.S. strikes on Iran terrorist organisations.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guard_Corps

    Some Iranian missiles have been fired back.

    Anyone know anything else

    Reply
    1. LeeG

      Operation Epstein Fury is under way.

      What’s Going On With Shipping

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wck_88OaQX8

    2. Iver

      No wonder this website is dead

    3. Andre The Giant

      I know this.

      Andre got last year oil prediction completely wrong.

      But Andre based his number on Trump going after Iran for trying to assasinate him.

      nailed the second one

    4. Nick G

      Israel says supreme leader killed.

      20% of all oil (roughloy 50% of exports), 20% of LNG and 30% of traded fertilizer goes through the Strait of Hormuz, and…

      Iran is telling tankers that passage through the Strait is not allowed.

    5. Iver

      Nick G

      Now the U.S. is smashing Iran forces everyone knows it is safer now than ever.

      https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:56.1/centery:25.5/zoom:9

      Sure maybe the ancient Iranian navy will hit one or two ships but the Iranian navy is pathetic in comparison to the United States.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_highest_military_expenditures

      Khamenei is dead party 🥳🥳

    6. Alimbiquated

      It will be interesting to see the effect of the populist Republican strategy of attacking individuals instead of addressing real political and economic issues.

      Reality TV star Trump kidnapped Maduro and murdered Khameni. It’s the same strategy as Hillary’s emails and Obama’s birth certificate. Who needs policy ideas when you can destroy your enemies?

      Does it matter past the current news cycle, or is it the start of two more endless wars? Or is the plan just to thump your chest on TV, declare victory and go home?

      Stay tuned! We may be going back to a medieval age of strongmen.

    7. Iron Mike

      Alim,

      You want to talk about the medieval age. How about Islamic ideology which belongs there.

      I for one is happy that Israel and the U.S carried out and killed the head of this ugly disgusting cult which oppressed and murdered its own people by the truckload for 47 years.

    8. Sheng Wu

      will Supreme Court of US declare this war illegal later as a posture of moral and legal against tyranny without limit?

    9. DC

      Iron Mike,

      This is a matter of power and international law. Does might make right? In medieval times the answer was clearly yes. Australia’s proximity to China would make me concerned, if China decided that international norms no longer applied to super-powers and I was a citizen of Australia.

      Should Australian citizens decide their fate or should it be decided by Shi, Putin, or Trump?

    10. DC

      Sheng Wu,

      The main way to curb the power of a president is through impeachment and removal from office by a Senate conviction. Note that this has never occurred in the history of the US, there have been impeachments, but never a conviction by the Senate and removal from office.

      Not likely in this case in my view.

    11. Iron Mike

      Dennis,

      “A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within.” ~ Ariel Durant

      90 million Iranians were imprisoned by their government and their barbaric ideology which belongs to the medieval period. In a matter of a week this piece of shit regime killed more than 30,000 people mostly people below the age of 30, while shutting down the internet to hide their genocide.

      On top of that they sponsored terrorist and funded terrorist organisations in the neighbourhood and abroad.

      So yes, it is in everyones favour for this piece of shit regime to be thrown into the garbage bin of history once and for all.

      Your example of Australia and China doesn’t fit. Australian people as of now will still strongly support their government against any foreign invasion. Cant say the same for the vast majority of Iranians, they welcomed this and breathed a sigh of relief after 47 years of misery.

    12. Andre The Giant

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15603771/betting-gambling-iran-strikes-polymarket-trump.html

      Mysterious man makes a huge bet at exactly the right time as USA strikes Iran.

      He must have been reading POB and Andre talking about how Trump’s narcissitic, bullying and no empathy personality type will mean he will retaliate against Iran for trying to assasinate him.

      Its just who the guy is

    13. Iver

      DC

      You are a complete idiot

      When has Australia killed thousands of people for protesting?

      Iran has armed men who went into Israel and murdered thousands. Hamas raped and killed young women and took their bodies back to Gaza to parade on back of pickup truck

      You have no moral compass at all

    14. Alimbiquated

      Iron Mike
      Yeah, Khameni was a horrible dictator. I don’t mourn him. But Iran is a republic, meaning there is a legal mechanism for replacing him. So the hopes that this will lead to regime change aren’t particularly good. The best idea exiled Iranians seem to have come up with it putting the “Shah’s” useless son in power. I doubt anyone in Iran is on board.

      My point was that Mr FIFA Peace Prize is now a regime change at gunpoint president with even less of a plan than Bush the Lesser.

      As for the medieval part, Islamic fundamentalism is a thoroughly modern ideology. Religious nut cases like to pretend they belong to some tradition, but it’s usually a lie.

      You can see that in American Jesus freaks with ther “Judeo-Christian” and “Prosperity theology” and “Rapture” and all the other made up nonsense they pretend is Christianity. Islamic nutjobs aren’t any different.

      Sheng Wu
      It’s definitely an unconstitutional war but that train left the station decades ago. It’s part of the general drift into lawlessness in America. There will be no consequences for Trump.

    15. DC

      I am not in support of the Iranian government. For those from Australia or the UK, if you feel strongly that external regime change is a good idea, convince your governments to do the job. It is not the job of the US in my opinion to be the policeman of the World. Regime change generally fails to improve the situation in the long term. Many fail to remember that a democratically elected government in Iran was replaced with a brutal dictator in 1953 with the help of the UK and US. The Iranian revolution in 1979 replaced one brutal dictator with another, it is up to the Iranian people to change things. Bombs dropped from above are not likely to change things much politically in Iran. Even a ground invasion as in Afghanistan and Iraq did not result in much success in establishing viable democracies.

    16. Iron Mike

      DC,

      You are contradicting yourself.
      Why don’t you convince your government to stop meddling in the world affairs and acting like the world police. They have been doing that for arguably half a century. That ship has sailed.

      When the west screws around with a countries politics to gain economically or to remove a government by proxy over a period of time when it consequentially doesn’t work out for them, they’re hand is forced to use their military to ‘solve’ the problem. And change regime. It has happened in the middle east over and over again. Taliban is a creation of the U.S, so is Islamic state, Al-Qaeda etc. And as you mentioned the 1953 coup in Iran. Once you start meddling, it is a chain reaction.

      So don’t sit there and tell people around the world it is up to them to change their government when YOUR government is responsible directly or indirectly for putting despots and terrorists in power in the first place.

    17. DC

      Iver,

      I have not been in support of US military interventions, and do not support those now. The current US/ Israeli war on Iraq, may well make things worse, rather than better.

      In addition the President requires Congressional backing for a declaration of war unless there is an imminent threat on the security of the US, no such threat existed from Iran to justify such an action.

    18. DC

      Iron Mike,

      US action in the past has not improved things, do you believe something has changed?

      Why would you expect the current US action will achieve a good result?

      Seems delusional from my perspective.

      I have never been in favor of the US government interfering in the affairs of other nations. I tend to vote in that manner, often the vote does not go my way as I am one of 150 million votes (in the case of a president).

      I have little influence (none for practical purposes) on the foreign policy of the US.

    19. DC

      Iron Mike,

      Do you think every problem in the World is the responsibility of the US. Think it through a bit. There is an endless chain of consequences going back through time, the US has been a nation for 250 years or so, were there no despots before that time and no evil existed in the Universe?

      I don’t think so.

    20. Iron Mike

      Dennis,

      Have you lost your ability to read. I said past 50 years. But this shit goes back to colonialism with the Europeans too.

      But lets stick to the context of the discussion which is modern history. The issues in middle east is directly and indirectly at least partially the fault of the U.S government. If you don’t see this, then we have nothing further to talk about.

    21. Iron Mike

      DC,

      US action in the past has not improved things, do you believe something has changed?

      Yes they have learned from their previous mistakes in the middle east. And the key point is it is in the U.S and Israels interest for this regime to be changed, which just happens to align with the people of Iran, otherwise none of this would be happening.

      Why would you expect the current US action will achieve a good result?

      I don’t know if it will. But removing a regime whose ideology is from the 7th century which is a threat domestically and internationally is a good move.

      Again both democrats and republicans have interfered in global affairs. It is part of the American system and in corporate interests for this to happen. I don’t think a vote is going to change this.

    22. DC

      Iron Mike,

      You said:

      “Once you start meddling, it is a chain reaction.”

      I agree with that.

      Yes you said 50 years, though the meddling started long before 1976, no logical reason to think the chain reaction stops at 50 years ago in my view. So I am reading all that you wrote and then using some reason.

      No reason to think anything has been learned from past mistakes. So now good policy is assassinating leaders we do not like from the air? Who’s next in this “smart” foreign policy?

      Does this seem a policy that leads to more international stability? Not in my view.

    23. Iron Mike

      DC,

      Yea 50 years is a ball park figure. It started before that, lets just say post ww2, for simplicity sake.

      Yea i think they have learned that regime change isn’t easy or putting Ba’ath party members with Islamic extremists in the same prison leads to ISIS (Camp Bucca).

      In saying all this, it is obvious the U.S is doing Israel’s bidding. I am quite convinced without Israeli influence the U.S would not be going to war as they have. But it is what is it.

      Not sure what the outcome would be. Short term i think you are correct, Instability will increase. Medium to long term might have better outcomes. Assuming the regime is well and truly gone from the region.

    24. DC

      Iron Mike,

      I agree that if the regime is changed, perhaps things change for the better. I don’t think this really happens without boots on the ground and believe that would be a mistake, US citizens would not support it. I don’t think sending brave young men and women to die to accomplish this is a good idea.

      Generally successful regime change is home grown, not imposed by a foreign power.

    25. LeeG

      Iron Mike, are you saying that “regime change” is a realistic goal using aerial bombing?

  26. DC

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/01/experts-weigh-potential-scenarios-for-oil-if-strait-of-hormuz-closes.html

    Reply
    1. LeeG

      DC, seems to me China must have leverage on Iran to the degree that they provide significant revenue for Iran’s oil and that long term closure will hurt China and the global economy. I’m guessing the US Navy will be stuck there “policing” the straits. One thing is for sure, Congress can stop pretending they’re a third branch of the gov’t.

  27. Ervin

    DC, I know you don’t support state sponsored terrorism but in the same breath you say that Trump better not do a damn thing to stop it.

    Reply
    1. Nick G

      Ervin,

      Is this a war? The US president says so.

      Does the US congress have sole authority to declare a war? The US constitution says so.

      Is this war not clearly a violation of the US constitution?

      ———————————————-

      Is this war legal in international law? There’s no way to argue that Iran attacked the US. This is a war of choice. It’s not approved by the UN – IIRC both Gulf war I and II were. I don’t think it’s legal in international law. Anybody disagree?

      So. Why is this important. Well, the rule of law makes it more difficult for Russia to get away with invading Ukraine. Not impossible, but more difficult. It makes it harder for countries to claim that some minority is being abused and this gives permission to invade – this is Russia’s excuse for invading Ukraine.

      Legal process, due process, is important. It protects us all.

      —————————————

      Democracy is a good idea mostly because it leads to better decisions. A longer, more deliberative process, involving a lot of experts, constituencies and people who are affected (especially the kids who will be killed in the conflict, and their families, friends and communities), leads to better decisions.

      John Bolton, a former national security adviser to this president, tells us that this president is impulsive, that he doesn’t think out the longterm strategic or tactical implications of decisions. And yet, he is autocratic – he likes to make decision in a vacuum, with aides and subordinates who are afraid to speak truth to power because he tends to fire people who bring him bad news or disagree with him.

      This is a recipe for bad decisions.

      There has been no national discussion of the goals of a war with Iran. Is it primarily about nuclear weapons? Regime change? Currently the president is saying this is a very short operation. Can he guarantee that? How??

    2. Iver

      Nick G

      The scum who run Iran had a vowed aim of killing all Israelis they were trying to enrich uranium and were building better missiles.

      What you wait for?

      These scum have killed thousands of their own people, they are evil to the core.

      They would not hesitate in firing nuclear missiles at Isreal, then you would have a nuclear war.

      Why don’t you read a bit of history about what happens when you allow evil people to become more powerful. Pol Pot, Hitler, Stalin, and they start by killing vast numbers in their own country.

      Dennis is too stupid to learn from history hopefully you are not.

    3. DC

      Iver,

      Send UK military to do the job. Not the job of the US to right every wrong in my view. What has the history of the past 80 years taught us? Military intervention rarely improves the situation when applied. Maybe you should read some history. Note that Pol Pot came to power due to US bombing in Cambodia during the Vietnam War, Stalin was an ally of US and UK during WW2 and was fighting against Hitler. Many people in power do evil things, it is the nature of unchecked power and is not likely to change.

    4. DC

      Ervin,

      I don’t expect current US activity will change things and may well make things worse. Iran’s power has been severely degraded from attacks in June 2025. There is little justification for the current attack from my perspective.

    5. Iver

      Dennis

      Your understanding of history is as shallow as your understanding of economics.

      In the 1930s when the Nazis started killing many German people, when Hitler proclaimed that Germany needed to expand eastward. The western countries had a golden opportunity to remove him.

      Unfortunately just a few gutless leaders refused, the consequences of gutlessness like yours always has horrific consequences.

      Cowardice is not goodness only looks like it.

    6. Nick G

      Iver,

      The idea that Hitler could have been stopped, but wasn’t because leaders were cowardly is unrealistic. Neville Chamberlain had to play for time because he knew the UK wasn’t ready for a war. So did Stalin. Of course, much of Stalin’s problems were self inflicted – like the current US president, he had purged the army of it’s smartest and most competent leaders because he valued loyalty over competence. That should sound very familiar.

      It’s also important to point out that the current president’s slogan of America First was first coined in the thirties by those who wished to leave Hitler alone to do what he wished. They were the biggest barriers to any kind of early intervention.

  28. Etvin

    The President has 60 days by law before he has to go to Congress. It’s the law.

    Reply
    1. Nick G

      That’s in the case “of “a national emergency created by attack upon the United States, its territories or possessions, or its armed forces.”. In that case, and only in that case, the president has 48 hours to notify congress, and 60 days to get explicit approval by congress.

      There has been no emergency. There seems to have been notification of congress, but no consultation or request for war powers approval.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Resolution

  29. Iver

    Great news for American oil producers.

    Oil prices are now where they should be.

    Reply
  30. AlexP

    About half of the world oil production is used in road transportation. Buy a BEV and install solar pannels on your roof and you have fuel for free. So, how high should oil price be?

    Reply
    1. Iver

      Well we had over $110 for a couple of years which spurred the research into EVs. So that would be fine.

    2. LeeG

      It should be what people are willing to pay. I wonder what new element of chaos and destruction Donald can toss into this weeks news cycle.

    3. DC

      From Oct 2010 to Sept 2014 (a 48 month period) the average monthly price of Brent Crude in 2025 US$ was about $152/bo. Perhaps that oil price would be fine, we may get to find out soon. My guess is that economic turmoil may be the result.

  31. SRSrocco

    QatarEnergy To Shut Down All LNG Production

    According to QatarEnergy, due to military attacks across the region, they are shutting down all 14 LNG Trains, or about 20% of global LNG output.

    Looks like after two days of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, things are getting quite interesting.

    Unfortunately, the killing of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has had the opposite effect than the U.S. Military & Israel were hoping for. Instead of Iranians rising up against the regime, it seems they are rallying behind the new leaders who took place.

    We live in interesting times… indeed.

    steve

    Reply
  32. SRSrocco

    BLOOMBERG: Saudi Arabia’s Biggest Oil Refinery Halts After Drone Attack

    Aramco halted operations at Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery at Ras Tanura on the Persian Gulf coast after a drone strike in the area.

    Gasoil futures jumped on news of the closure of the refinery that’s a key supplier of diesel, as Iran intensified attacks that damaged critical energy infrastructure in the region.

    Aramco shut the 550,000 barrel-a-day Ras Tanura plant on Monday as a precaution while assessing damage, the Saudi Energy Ministry said in statement to the country’s state news agency.
    —————–

    It seems like Iran is now attacking Middle East Oil & Gas Infrastructure across the Middle East.

    Who would have thunk??

    steve

    Reply
    1. Paul Pukite (@whut)

      natural gas prices up 45% in Europe

  33. HHH

    The last time congress officially declared war was back in 1941.

    There have been lots of wars since 1941. Korean, Vietnam to name a couple. The president doesn’t need congressional approval.

    Reply
    1. DC

      HHH,

      See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Resolution

    2. Nick G

      Of course he needs approval – that would be King George (who, it turns out, actually needed parliament!). And yes, there have been a number of congressional approvals of military action. The Tonkin Gulf resolution for Vietnam is one of many.

  34. SRSrocco

    BLOOMBERG: UAE and Qatar Urge Allies to Help Trump Find Off-Ramp on Iran

    The United Arab Emirates and Qatar are privately lobbying allies to help them persuade President Donald Trump to reach for an off-ramp that would keep US military operations against Iran short, according to people familiar with the matter.

    The countries are seeking to build a wide coalition to advance a swift and diplomatic end to the conflict, the people said, in order to prevent regional escalation and a prolonged energy price shock. They were speaking on condition of anonymity discussing matters that have not been made public.

    A Qatari assessment shared with Bloomberg News warned that if shipping lanes in the region remain severely disrupted by the middle of this week they would expect to see a more significant market reaction for natural gas prices than Monday’s sharp spike.
    ——————

    Just 48 hours since the US-Israel-Iran conflict occurred, it looks like several Middle East countries are beginning to look for an EXIT RAMP.

    That didn’t take long. Maybe Pete Hegseth will get on that right away??

    steve

    Reply
  35. shallow sand

    Looking at oil prices, it appears the traders don’t think the Strait of Hormuz will be shut for very long.

    $70 WTI isn’t high.

    If the Strait were to be closed for 4 weeks, Gulf OPEC will run low on storage and have to shut in production.

    The probability of that must be very low. If it weren’t, oil would be over $100.

    Reply
    1. Nick G

      Yes, it looks very much like they’re relying on the TACO Trade.

      The president has said that this war will be over in 3-4 weeks. Oddly enough, that would seem to send a very strong signal to the Iranian government that they just need to keep up a campaign of maximum pain on their neighbors while hunkering down until the war is over.

      It’s a very odd way to try to win a war.

      And…I just heard news that the president is saying that the war could be prolonged. That’s more realistic, but these day to day revisions again suggest that there is no strategy here, no long-term plan at all.

      Wow.

  36. shallow sand

    I have zero background on what it takes to disrupt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

    However, I did hear one of our retired USA commanders say using $2 million Patriot missiles to shoot down $20k Iranian manufactured drones isn’t something that can be done long term.

    Those $20k drones can set a tanker on fire.

    Control of the Strait of Hormuz is the whole deal IMO. The USA will have to patrol it for a very long time unless regime change can be accomplished..

    Just my two cents. Maybe I’m wrong.

    Reply
    1. SRSrocco

      Shallow,

      Your two cents has merit. Looks like we have entered into a New Paradigm of inexpensive High-Tech weaponry that makes the Big Bloated Militaries obsolete.

      steve

    2. Ovi

      An Update to US Oil production has been posted.

      https://peakoilbarrel.com/us-december-oil-production-drops-2/

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