January Non-OPEC and World Oil Production Drops

By Ovi

The focus of this post is an overview of World oil production along with a more detailed review of the top 11 Non-OPEC oil producing countries. OPEC production is covered in a separate post.

Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for the oil producing countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to January 2025. This is the latest and most detailed/complete World oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway, Mexico, Argentina and China is used to provide a short term outlook. 

World oil production decreased by 231 kb/d in January to 82,184 kb/d, green graph. The largest decrease came from the US, 305 kb/d. February’s World oil production is projected to increase by 400 kb/d to 82,584 kb/d.

This chart also projects World C + C production out to December 2026. It uses the May 2025 STEO report along with the International Energy Statistics to make the projection. The May STEO report notes its forecast only partially incorporated the world’s new tariff conditions.

For December 2026, production is projected to be 83,820 kb/d. The December 2026 oil production is lower than the November 2018 peak by 772 kb/d. December 2026 production has been revised down by 116 kb/d from the previous report.

From December 2023 to December 2026, World oil production is estimated to increase by 804 kb/d.

January’s World oil output without the US increased by 74 kb/d to 69,037 kb/d. February’s production is expected to increase by 388 kb/d to 69,425 kb/d.

The STEO is forecasting that December 2026 crude output will be 70,381 kb/d. Note that the December 2026 output is 2,304 kb/d lower than the November 2018 peak of 72,685 kb/d.

World oil production W/O the U.S. from January 2025 to December 2026 is forecast to increase by a total of 1,344 kb/d.

A Different Perspective on World Oil Production

Peak production in the Big 3 occurred in April 2020 at a rate of 34,739 kb/d. The peak was associated with a large production increase from Saudi Arabia. Post covid, production peaked at 34,010 kb/d in September 2022. The production decline since then is primarily due to cutbacks by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

January’s Big 3 oil production decreased by 355 kb/d to 32,021 kb/d. Of the 355 kb/d decrease, the US accounted for 305 kb/d. Production in January was 1,989 kb/d lower than the September 2022 post pandemic high of 34,010 kb/d. OPEC has announced it will start increasing production in May so the 1,989 kb/d drop should start to get smaller.

Production in the Remaining countries had been slowly increasing since the September 2020 low of 42,970 kb/d to December 2023. Production has risen for the last four months and output in January increased by 124 kb/d to 50,163 kb/d and is now 323 kb/d lower than December 2023.

Countries Expected to Grow Oil Production

This chart was first posted a few of months back and shows the combined oil production from five Non-OPEC countries, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and the U.S., whose oil production is expected to grow. These five countries are often cited by OPEC and the IEA for being capable of meeting the increasing World oil demand for next year. For these five countries, production from April 2020 to August 2024 rose at an average rate of 1,199 kb/d/year as shown by the orange OLS line.

To show the impact of US growth over the past 5 years, U.S. production was removed from the five countries and that graph is shown in red. The production growth slope for the remaining four countries has been reduced by 687 kb/d/yr to 512 kb/d/yr.

January production has been added to the five growers chart, down 370 kb/d to 22,979 kb/d. For the Five growers W/O U.S. January production dropped to 9,833 kb/d, down 65 kb/d from December 2024 and is 26 kb/d higher than December 2023.

The OLS lines have not been updated and will not be updated going forward unless additional production data provides a strong indication that production is rising/changing.

Production up to December 2023 may be a situation where the past is not a good indicator of the future. In this case it may be more important to focus on what has happened to production after December 2023 rather than before.

Countries Ranked by Oil Production

Above are listed the World’s 13th largest oil producing countries. In January 2024, these 13 countries produced 78.7% of the World’s oil. On a MoM basis, production decreased by 118 kb/d in these 13 countries while on a YOY basis, production rose by 270 kb/d.

January Non-OPEC Oil Production Charts

January’s Non-OPEC oil production decreased by 267 kb/d to 53,187 kb/d. February is expected to add 217 kb/d to 53,404 kb/d.

Using data from the May 2025 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the period February 2025 to December 2026. (Red graph).  Output is expected to reach 54,615 kb/d in December 2026. December 2026 was revised down by 230 kb/d from the previous report.

From January 2025 to December 2026, oil production in Non-OPEC countries is expected to increase by 1,428 kb/d.

January’s Non-OPEC W/O US oil production rose by 37 kb/d to 40,040 kb/d. February’s production is projected to rise by 205 kb/d to 40,245 kb/d.

From January 2025 to December 2026, production in Non-OPEC countries W/O the U.S. is expected to increase by 1,137 kb/d. December 2026 production is projected to be 7 kb/d higher than December 2019, essentially no growth over seven years. December 2026 production was revised down by 165 kb/d from the last report to 41,177 kb/d.

Non-OPEC Oil Countries Ranked by Production

Listed above are the World’s 11 largest Non-OPEC producers. The original criteria for inclusion in the table was that all of the countries produced more than 1,000 kb/d. Oman has recently fallen below 1,000 kb/d.

January’s production decreased by 197 kb/d to 44,462kb/d for these eleven Non-OPEC countries while as a whole the Non-OPEC countries saw a yearly production increase of 161 kb/d to 53,187 kb/d.

In January 2024, these 11 countries produced 83.6% of all Non-OPEC oil. 

Non-OPEC Country’s Oil Production Charts

Angola’s January production dropped by 30 kb/d to 1,035 kb/d. Since early 2022 Angola’s production settled into a plateau phase between 1,100 kb/d and 1,200 kb/d. However December and January brought a drop below the lower plateau.

According to the March OPEC MOMR: “Growth is set to be driven by the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway, with the main decline anticipated in Angola. Angola output has now dropped for two months and is just 10 kb/d above its previous low.

The EIA reported that Brazil’s January production increased by 27 kb/d to 3,446 kb/d.

Brazil’s National Petroleum Association (BNPA) reported that production increased in February and March to 3,621 kb/d. The pre-salt graph tracks Brazil’s trend in the oil graph. For March, pre-salt production increased by 185 kb/d to 2,883 kb/d, a new high.

The February to March increase could be related to the addition of the two new floating platforms. The December OPEC report states that two new floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) platforms came online in November. It also mentions operational issues and slow ramp-ups in several offshore platforms continue to be an issue. Perhaps this explains the delayed March production ramp up.

The March OPEC report states “Petrobras initiated production from the FPSO Almirante Tamandaré (Buzios 7) in mid-February at the Buzios field, located in the pre-salt layer of the Santos Basin, as the sixth production system in this field.” It also states that scheduled startup of planned new platforms could be delayed, “Nevertheless, operational issues and unplanned disruptions could potentially delay some scheduled start-ups from the platforms.”

Canada’s production decreased by 82 kb/d in January to 5,015 kb/d after hitting a new high of 5,097 kb/d in January. Oil sands operations in February in the very cold Fort McMurray region are very difficult.

The Alberta premier is asking that the new Prime Minister Carney ease the anti oil sands policies of the previous government. If they don’t a referendum on separating from Canada could be held according to this Article.

Canada will be entering the LNG market in Mid 2025 according to this Article. The article also shows how the anti-FF policies of the previous government hampered the start of Canadian LNG projects.

“Canada and the United States both began proposing LNG export facilities at roughly the same time in the early 2010’s. In typical ‘let’s not wait around fashion’, the United States seized the moment and has become the world’s largest LNG exporter in the world since then. Canada has exported zero. Nothing.”

Travel time from Kitimat to Asia is close to 10 days vs 20 days from the US Gulf. This could result in more US LNG being shipped to Europe. Also it will reduce the amount of NG Canada sends to the US and could possibly support NG prices in the US as it may consume more internally, according to this Article.

“This milestone is pivotal for Canada’s energy sector, as LNG Canada represents the nation’s inaugural LNG export facility. Upon completion, the plant is projected to export 14 million metric tonnes per annum (MTPA) of supercooled natural gas, opening up new avenues for Canadian energy resources beyond the traditional reliance on the U.S. market.”

The EIA reported China’s January oil output increased by 124 kb/d to 4,340 kb/d.

The China National Bureau of Statistics reported average production for January and February of 4,335 kb/d, very close to the EIA’s January report. For March the Bureau reported that oil production surged to a new high of 4,480 kb/d. On a YoY basis, China’s production increased by 154 kb/d from the year ago high of 4,326 kb/d.

According to the EIA, Kazakhstan’s oil output increased by 124 kb/d in January to 1,878 kb/d.

Kazakhstan’s recent pre-salt crude oil production, as reported by Argus, has been added to the chart. In October pre-salt crude production dropped by 120 kb/d to a low 1,340 kb/d. Since then production has risen by 450 kb/d. March production came in at 1,790 kb/d due to a New Field coming online. Note this is crude whereas the EIA numbers are C + C.

Kazakhstan’s June OPEC crude production target is 1,500 kb/d. At 1,790 kb/d, Kazakhstan is 290 kb/d over their target. According to this Article, Kazakhstan says it has no plans to cut oil production this month (May) after massively exceeding its Opec+ target in March.

Since Kazakhstan’s reduction promises have not materialized, OPEC announced it would “accelerate plans to revive halted supplies in May and June, with an increase triple the size originally scheduled of 411 kb/d in each of May and June”.

Combined with the Trump tariffs the production increase announcement dropped the price of WTI/Brent by $10/b over two days. OPEC is trying to send a message to Kazakhstan to comply with its production target.

According to the EIA, Mexico’s January output dropped by 18 kb/d to 1,715 kb/d.

In June 2024, Pemex issued a new and modified oil production report for Heavy, Light and Extra Light oil. It is shown in blue in the chart and it appears that Mexico is not reporting condensate production when compared to the EIA report.

In earlier reports, the EIA would add close to 55 kb/d of condensate to the Pemex report. However for October and November it was increased to 122 kb/d and 117 kb/d respectively. For December, the condensate addition returned close to its original increase of 55 kb/d. The January addition was 98 kb/d.

For February and March production, 98 kb/d have been added to Pemex’s production to estimate Mexico’s February and March C + C production, red markers. Note that Mexico’s production, according to Pemex, has continued to fall every month since May 2023, except for one month.

The EIA reported Norway’s January production declined by 37 kb/d to 1,773 kb/d.

Separately, the Norway Petroleum Directorate (NPD) reported that February production dropped by 40 kb/d to 1,733 kb/d and March rebounded to 1,774 kb/d, red markers.

The Norway Petroleum Directorship reported that March’s oil production was 4.2% above forecast.

Oman’s production had risen very consistently since the low of May 2020. However production began to drop in November 2022. According to the EIA, January’s output rose by 1 kb/d to 987 kb/d.

The EIA had been reporting flat output of 1,322 kb/d for Qatar since early 2022. However the EIA revised down all of the previous production data up to April 2024. May 2024 production reverted to 1,322 kb/d. Qatar’s January output was reported again to be 1,322 kb/d.

The EIA reported Russia’s January C + C production was flat at 9,805 kb/d and was down 455 kb/d from March 2024. It is also 128 kb/d higher than the Argus Russia proxy estimate of 9,677 kb/d for January.

Russia’s new required crude production for June is 9,161 kb/d. It will interesting to see if their production will rise starting in May 2025.

For comparison: This chart was posted May 3 and used the April STEO forecast.

The forecast portion of this production chart is very different to the one published last week in the US update post. For this chart the STEO forecast portions of the two graphs have been updated using the May 2025 report.

There has been a significant drop in expected production between March 2025 and December 2025. Regardless, I think there is more hopium than reality in the forecast up to December 2025.

Normally, Argentina’s oil production is not reported because its production is lower than 1,000 kb/d. However production has been steadily rising over the last five years due to the startup of shale oil and gas production in the Vaca Muerta basin.

For January, the EIA reported Argentina’s production dropped 10 kb/d to 748 kb/d.

The Argentinian Energy Secretariat reported oil production in March rose by 2 kb/d to 747 kb/d.

The two previous production drops occurred in July 2023 and June 2024. Is Argentina’s production growth about to slow on its way to an expected 1,000 kb/d a few years down the road?