EIA’s Electric Power Monthly – May 2018 Edition with data for March

320 thoughts to “EIA’s Electric Power Monthly – May 2018 Edition with data for March”

1. Islandboy,

   On your second to last chart can you explain what “total” means (dotted yellow line)? Maybe is the total coal electricity power that was retired that month? It’s not clear from either the text or the chart on Electricity Generation Retirements.

   Nice post, thanks.

   1. I’m guessing its for Total MW which is why coal is such a large part of YTD and petroleum liquids hardly appears at all even though a large “percentage” of march.

      1. That is correct. It represents the total capacity retired for the month. Since only 14.4 MW was retired in March, as opposed to 1818 MW in February and 4320 MW in January, the figures don’t make any visible difference to the YTD numbers.

         1. Island Boy,

            Now it’s clear, maybe either put (MW) next to Total or (right axis) so it is a bit clearer.

            1. Islandboy,

               Perhaps figuring a way to include cumulative retirements YTD would be good. Is the YTD on the left supposed to be % or MW.

               In other words for YTD 2018 the total capacity added is about 1500 MW and total retirements YTD is about 5000 MW?

               No that’s not right, the column on the right (YTD) simply shows the shares (%) of each type.

               To get the cumulative total one has to add up the numbers from the dotted line, so about 3300 MW of capacity additions YTD 2018 (estimating from chart) and about 6000 MW of retirements.

               Interesting because Wind and Solar “capacity” usually results in less output because they only produce output about 25 to 35% of the time on average (sun does not always shine and the Wind does not always blow at any individual site).

               1. Per EIA, the overall average US capacity factor is about 43% (458GW from 1,074GW capacity).

               2. USA wind capacity factor is right about 34%.

                  https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/wind-power-could-blow-past-hydros-capacity-factor-by-2020#gs.sylWlZM

               3. Good article. It says:

                  Technology has largely driven the increase in wind’s capacity factor, as taller turbines with longer blades now harvest more kinetic energy from faster winds, over a larger swept area. Capacity factor last year for U.S. wind projects built in 2014 averaged 41.2 percent, compared to 31.2 percent for projects built in the 2004-2011 timeframe.

                  41.2% is right about at the overall average for all generation.

               4. Nick current installed USA wind industry overall capacity factor is 34%.

               5. Uhm…right. And the latest generation is about 41%, just below the overall grid average of 43%. And the next generation is very likely to be significantly higher.

                  From the article you provided…

2. Dear Islandboy,

   The electrical power monthly also gives the coal consumed for power production. Can you please add it as a graph along with the top 10 coal consuming states henceforth if it is not too much trouble? Thanks!

   1. I will look into it. Should not be too much work.

      1. Thank you. I am asking this because the coal consumption might have fallen at a much faster rate than power produced from coal due to the fact that its the older and inefficient units which got culled till now.

         The top 10 consuming states graph will give an indication as to who are the leaders and laggards. For example, Texas while still consuming huge quantities would have reduced their consumption dramatically.

         1. Excellent point. Pessimists often point to the number of kWhs produced by coal, rather than the coal actually consumed, which has dropped substantially in places like Germany and parts of China due to the installation of more efficient plants.

            1. New coal plants are good? They don’t produce CO2?
               Investing in another 50 years or more in new coal burners sounds like a recipe for disaster. Who says that there will be a one to one replacement in the future. As far as I have read there is a flurry of new coal burners being planned and built now.

               Overall, 1,600 coal plants are planned or under construction in 62 countries, said Urgewald, which uses data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker portal. The new plants would expand the world’s coal-fired power capacity by 43 per cent.

               The fleet of new coal plants would make it virtually impossible to meet the goals set in the Paris climate accord. Electricity generated from fossil fuels such as coal is the biggest single contributor globally to the rise in carbon emissions, which scientists agree is causing the earth’s temperatures to rise.
               Shanghai Electric Group, one of the country’s largest electrical equipment makers, has announced plans to build coal power plants in Egypt, Pakistan and Iran with a total capacity of 6,285MW – almost 10 times the 660MW of coal power it has planned in China.

               https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinese-firms-to-build-700-coal-plants

               It’s nice to believe things are getting better, but the world still seems to be playing a losing game of Whack-A-Coal.

               1. Well, it certainly would be much, much better to replace coal with wind & solar.

                  But…if you’re trying to assess progress accurately, you have to take into account stuff like the efficiency of the new plants, the rate at which old plants are being retired, and the timeline and firmness of new orders.

                  Analyses like the one you just referenced tend not to do that.

               2. It was quite clear about a 43% planned increase in global coal fired capacity.
                  Do you have any actual evidence to refute that number and the article content other than lame unsupported rhetoric?

               3. It’s easy to find – just do a bit of googling. For instance, using the search terms World Coal Plant Retirements I found:

                  “According to a report published yesterday (pdf) by Greenpeace, CoalSwarm, and the Sierra Club, the number of new coal plants being developed around the world continued to decline between 2015 and 2017. As of January, the world had seen a 29% year-on-year drop in construction starts, and a 73% drop in them in the past two years, according to the report (p. 4). Meanwhile, the number of newly completed coal plants fell 28% year-on-year in 2017.
                  “With declining deployment and high levels of retirement, coal power capacity is now caught in a squeeze: if current trends continue, by 2022 yearly retirements will exceed new capacity and the global coal fleet will begin to shrink,” notes the report (pdf, p. 3).”

                  https://qz.com/1235125/the-number-of-coal-plants-worldwide-is-shrinking-but-nowhere-near-enough/

                  So, the article that started this discussion didn’t include retirements, it included plants in the “planning” stage – that has a 10 year horizon, and many of those plants are clearly never going to be built.

               4. You do realize that the quartz article does not contradict the Straitstimes article.

                  Greenpeace/Sierra Club use an assumed 37% implementation rate on planned projects, meaning the planned projects still in the pipeline are actually 3 times greater than they state. They also do not say canceled projects but list them as “On Hold”

                  Let’s look at the Coal Swarm/Greenpeace/Sierra club numbers as of January 2017. From their Boom And Bust 2018 report.

                  Now as of January 2018
                  Under Active Construction 656,190 MW
                  Total Operating 1,995,818 MW

                  year new retired difference GW
                  2014 71 20 +51
                  2015 101 40 +61
                  2016 84 32 +52
                  2017 61 25 +36

                  Note: 2015 was the largest retirement year recorded, two to twenty times larger than retirements preceding it back to 2000, yet it had a large gain in coal power.

                  Global coal power for the last two years has been rising at 2 percent per year.
                  ———————end of article————

                  They say that global coal power will stop growing in 2022 so not long to wait to see how that works out. With about 800 GW of planned projects in the global pipeline and 656 GW under active construction, we shall see.

                  Wonder what the natural gas project pipeline looks like.

               5. Another part of the equation is capacity factor.

                  China is building coal capacity, but the capacity factor has fallen to below 50%, because Chinese regional governments like the employment that comes with construction, but don’t care if the capacity is needed. It’s driving the Chinese central government nuts, but the central government has limited power to stop it.

                  So, capacity could grow by 2% while kWhs generated are flat, and efficiency increases mean that if kWh growth was zero coal consumption would be falling.

                  US coal plant capacity factors are dropping even faster and lower than China’s, which is why utilities are lining up to close coal plants.

                  “ANOTHER NUMBER OF NOTE IN CHINA is its national coal-fleet capacity factor, which was 47.5 percent in 2016 and 48 percent in 2017, meaning that the fleet generated less than half its potential output. The national government has stepped in as a result and suspended or cancelled projects previously approved at local and provincial levels. As in the U.S., large baseload plants are an important revenue source for localities in China, a key factor in a surge in coal plant permitting in 2015.

                  Since 2012, total installed solar photovoltaic generation has increased from less than 10 gigawatts to about 130 gigawatts.
                  Aiqun Yu, an analyst with CoalSwarm, a think tank that tracks coal-fired electricity generation globally, said that in just the past two years, the Chinese government has essentially cancelled or suspended some 444 gigawatts of new coal-fired generation capacity. The program has been enforced rigorously, she said, and to the point that several completed coal plants have been barred from hooking up to the transmission grid, effectively placing them in mothball status. The policy has pushed down the amount of new coal capacity coming online from 60 gigawatts in 2015 to 34 gigawatts in 2017—the lowest number in more than a decade.”

                  http://ieefa.org/ieefa-china-a-sea-change-in-energy-policy/

               6. Capacity factor has been given at 52% in the report if I remember correctly.

                  China is not the world, see the article I posted above.

               7. Yeah, that’s their assumption for the analysis: “52.5% average capacity factor (IEA 2017)”.

                  The big takeaway from the report is that many coal plants will have to be retired before their 40 year maximum lifespan. And…that we knew. It’s what’s happening in the US.

               8. Gone Fishing,

                  Nick G is pointing out that quoting MW does not tell us how much coal is actually being burned, and that is what determines how much CO2 is being emitted, and that is what counts for impact on climate.

               9. Synapsid, that depends on future implementation of coal. If the CO2 rate of new plants is less than old and the total keeps growing, the CO2 rate might eventually stop growing and fall in the future or it might not depending upon future growth rate. Lately the growth rate in power has been 2% per year.
                  The CoalSwarm/Sierra Club/Greenpeace assume only 37% of planned projects will be completed which is just an assumption. Under that assumption they estimate the CO2 emissions will be triple the Paris 1.5 degree coal cap and significantly larger than the Cancun 2C coal cap.

                  I am fairly certain that the report takes into account the new efficiencies.

                  S0 even under the best of circumstances coal CO2 will be high. Under real world circumstances it could be lower or higher than that. We shall see.

               10. ISTR the new coal plants are not only more efficient but can be ‘throttled’ better to match demand bringing further savings over old plants that had to run full out. Am I correct or do I need a brain tune up?

                   NAOM

               11. You’re correct, but it’s hard to get estimates of the efficiency difference.

               12. In Germany the newest plants grind up the lignite into dust, use waste heat to dry it, and then store it in a silo for fast ramp ups.

                   RWE claims >45% efficiency and the ability to ramp up 750 MW in 25 minutes (from 350MW to 1100MW) for its newest lignite plants.

                   Can’t find an English link.

            2. Your mention of coal in Germany does not give the complete picture. Germany cannot phase out coal production because it decided to eliminate nuclear and replace baseload generation with the lignite fired power plants. In addition, Germany has now hundreds of thousands of homes living on renewable sources, that is causing massive price increases for industrial power users.

         2. “Thank you. I am asking this because the coal consumption might have fallen at a much faster rate than power produced from coal due to the fact that its the older and inefficient units which got culled till now.”

            Ok, here’s a graph for coal consumption vs. net generation from coal, made by adding a column for net generation to Table 2.1.a . Can’t say I see any trend from it.

            Doing a graph for coal consumption by state is going to be a bit more work since the source tables (1.4.a and 2.8.a) give the data for each state for the current month compared to the same month for the previous year with the percentage change and a breakdown by sector. Getting a time series would require downloading the table for each month and transposing the column for coal consumption for all sectors for the current month into a row in a new table with columns for each state. Do you think it is worth it? I could easily provide a table of the top ten coal consuming states for each month but, a time series going back would be a fair amount of drudgery. I can build a time series starting this year but, how useful would that be?

            

            1. Interesting. I think that the criteria for which plants to close in the US is less efficiency, and more the cost required to bring plants up to current pollution or other operating standards (scrubbers, new boilers, etc).

               Same thing for nuclear plants: they chug along until they need expensive repairs or retrofits.

               Kind’ve like an old car staying on the road until it’s transmission goes out.

            2. Thank you. I think the lines track each other because the scales are not proportional.

               And yes I just want a list of top 10 states. No need to plot it. We can easily see who are decreasing their consumption just by looking at the list.

               1. Looking at the annual data, there appears to be a slight divergence of the two lines over the past two years suggesting that, the amount of coal consumed per unit of net generation might be going down but, is not particularly informative. In the electric power industry the efficiency of a source is measured by it’s heat rate, the amount of thermal energy used to produce a unit of electrical energy. In the case of the US EIA, this is given as Btu/Kwh and is available from the EIA’s Electric Power Annual (Table 8.1. Average Operating Heat Rate for Selected Energy Sources). Below is the chart showing the data. The falling average heat rate for Natural Gas fired generators is strikingly obvious as the number of more efficient combined cycle plants has increased relative to the less efficient simple cycle gas turbines.

                  For those unfamiliar with these matters, a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plant used the exhaust heat from the combustion turbines to power a steam turbine to produce more electrical power for a given amount of fuel. A typical CCGT plant uses two gas turbines to supply steam to a turbine of similar power to each of the two gas turbines, increasing the total power output by 50% compared to a the two gas turbines running without the steam turbine.

                  

               2. Thank you. This is really informative.

         3. Here are the top ten coal consuming states for March 2018, numbers representing thousands of tons. Does the coal consumption of a state say anything about it’s politics? At a glance it would appear that these states are Republican (conservative?).

            

            1. Not conservative when it comes to pollution. Rather many are party all night, wild-ass radicals when it comes to pollution.

               1. These states are basically the heart of coal country, including Texas, although most people don’t realize Texas has a lot of coal.

                  Says the Texas RRC :
                  Mining & Exploration. One of the state’s most abundant energy resources is a form of soft coal called lignite. Many lignite deposits lie close to the surface, easily reached with modern mining technology. Texas is the largest consumer of coal in the United States and in 2015 was the seventh largest coal-producing state …

                  If the political calculus changes, the coal will still be in the same places, and we will still be burning it for a long time to come.

                  They still produce oil in California, right in the middle of some uber liberal communities, lol.

               2. Not really. That’s a common misconception. Although Texas has a lot of coal, it is increasingly getting replaced by higher quality coal from PRB. Infact most of the coal Texas consumes comes from Wyoming.

               3. Illinois is the same way – it’s coal is high sulfur, and getting replaced by PRB. It’s a good example of demand-side Peak Commodity – the Illinois Basin has an enormous amount of coal, but it peaked a while ago because the sulfur makes it a little more expensive than PRB.

                  It’s the kind of thing that really confuses Peak Commodity analysts.

               4. Hi Glen,

                  Good to see you back. Hope all is well.

               5. Hi OFM!
                  I’m sure many of these states happen to have a large installed base of coal fired generators, and perhaps steel production, that they aren’t about to abandon while they are in good working order and the feedstock price is reasonable.

               6. That’s exactly it. Even if the power plants in those states no longer get their coal from in-state sources, there’s still a high density of plants in those states because all of them are coal producers or were in the recent past.

            2. Yes. All are deep red except maybe Illinois and Pennsylvania which are purple. The good news is that Texas grid (ERCOT) operates almost purely on cost and coal is getting killed there. As recently as 2015, it consumed more than 80k tonnes for the whole year. With the closure of more than 4000 MW recently, this year’s consumption is expected to be in the 60k+ range. With natgas this cheap, transmission bottlenecks being sorted out for wind and solar just getting started, coal in Texas (1/10th of US consumption) is going down fast.

3. Whether the US goes along or not, much of the world is in the process of converting to electric driven propulsion for transport. Different countries have different timelines, China leading in timeline and numbers over many. China is already selling three times the number of EV’s compared to US sales and is looking at having 12 percent of sales being EV by 2020. Compare that to the 1 percent currently in the US. A number of cities around the world are looking at eliminating ICE cars as a way of reducing air pollution.
   China to phase out gas-powered cars.
   China might ban gas, diesel vehicles.
   China looks to ban production, sale of petroleum-powered vehicles.
   France goes green- Plan to ban petrol and diesel cars.
   How electricity is replacing fossil fuels in China.
   UK to ban sale of new petrol, diesel and hybrid cars by 2040.
   Four Major Cities Ban Diesel Vehicles by 2025.
   Chinese Solar Cell Maker to Join Electric Vehicle Race.

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGoQB3cxPHw

   Having lived through much of the US pollution nightmare, pre EPA, I am for anything limiting pollution. Do not be fooled into thinking the US is pollution free or has a low amount of pollution. Much of the visible pollution is gone and the rivers are not being used as dumps as much. However, there is still a lot of pollution and with the governmental attitude change in the last two decades the pollution levels are on the increase.

   The EV provides a large energy advantage and when tied to wind or solar eliminates pollutant emissions from both vehicles and power sources. However, there are many sources of pollution so a broader approach is the best way to go. China, though developing quickly, appears to at least be implementing or planning on a broad approach to pollution.

   1. NORWAY READY FOR 100% EVS BY 2025 — BUT PLEASE DON’T CHARGE ON THURSDAY NIGHTS

      In 2017, 20% of all new cars were EVs, and the Norwegian ambition is that only electric cars will be sold from the year 2025. The newly appointed climate minister Ola Elvestuen fully supports this goal: “The favorable conditions for electric cars in Norway continue until the target is reached.”

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/12/norway-ready-100-evs-2025-please-dont-charge-thursday-nights/

      1. But how can one be ready to travel Friday evening after work if they don’t charge up fully Thursday night? 🙂

      2. Why is Thursday night a problem- is that bingo night?

         1. Well Thursday is Thor’s Day, of course, and in keeping with the “Green Revolution” He’s now using hydro power to replenish his lightening bolt supply for the week.

            Also, in Norway, Thursday has traditionally been the day when shops and malls are open later than on the other weekdays although the majority of shopping malls now are open until 8 pm or 9 pm every weekday. For college students, Thursday is referred to as New Friday because there are fewer classes on Fridays and more opportunities to hold parties on Thursday night and sleep in on Friday. BUT, lightening bolt charging would be the main load factor affecting electrical demand.

            BTW, lightning frightens trolls and Thor’s role in fighting them off is well known. So, lack of trolls in Norway is best explained as a result of the accuracy and efficiency of His lightning strokes. Be handy here sometimes.

4. Colorado Adopts California Clean Car Standards in Defiance of Trump Admin

   Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper announced Tuesday that his state would join 13 states and the District of Columbia in adopting California’s clean car emissions standards.

   “Colorado has a choice,” Gov. Hickenlooper said in a statement. “This executive order calls for the state to adopt air quality standards that will protect our quality of life in Colorado. Low emissions vehicles are increasingly popular with consumers and are better for our air. Every move we make to safeguard our environment is a move in the right direction.”

   https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/06/19/colorado-adopts-california-clean-car-standards-trump-auto-alliance

   1. Now if we could just get the local politicians to stop pushing the growth paradigm.

      With a surge of new residents, development and career opportunities, Colorado Springs, currently the state’s second-largest city, is forecasted to surpass Denver for the top spot by 2050.

      Will millennials lead the charge?

      Chances are, yes. Millennials are flocking to Colorado Springs at a higher rate than any other U.S. city, according to a report released by the Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program.

      Colorado Springs saw a 14.7 percent millennial growth rate from 2010 to 2015, leading all other cities in the nation, including Denver, Austin, Houston and Seattle. Colorado Springs also ranks sixth in the country for highest share of millennials overall, at 26.4 percent. The statistics are presented in Brookings’ report, “The Millennial Generation: A Demographic Bridge to America’s Diverse Future.” In this report, millennials are defined as people born between 1981 and 1997 — a group that makes up a quarter of the country’s population, and 30 percent of the voting age population.
      
      http://www.cobizmag.com/Trends/Colorado-Springs-The-Nations-Fastest-Growing-City-for-Millennials/

      If the population of C Springs keeps rising, less pollution per car will mean nothing.
      Don’t be fooled, the population around CS is growing fast so it’s more than just the city proper.

      1. “If the population of C Springs keeps rising, less pollution per car will mean nothing.”

         And, while 83 million people per year are being added to Earth a lot of things will mean nothing.

         1. Well, one expects a little more from advanced societies but CS has been heavily promoting growth for a long time now. I am sure this is modeled by many local governments.
            Putting out the fire on one side while fueling it from the other.

            1. This is the 401st consecutive month where global temperatures are above the 20th Century mean.
               Obviously, our current economic policy is failing.

               1. Yep, a case of pressing on the accelerator and holding a little brake at the same time.
                  Just think, what we did a few decades ago will catch up to us soon and what we do now will hit the world after mid-century.
                  But not to fear, once the Arctic Ocean has little or no ice for the summers the water up there will rise quickly in temperature and so will the land around it.
                  What’s that old saying “Ya ain’t seen nuttin’ yet boys.” ?
                  The show is just starting.

               2. Exactly how does ice melting in the ocean raise the sea level? The ice is displacing the same amount whether it is solid or liquid. Who are you people.

               3. Please learn to read. I know it’s tough after the taxpayers spent so much money and time educating you but for their sake make an effort.
                  “the water up there will rise quickly in temperature and so will the land around it.”

            2. Well, one expects a little more from advanced societies but CS has been heavily promoting growth for a long time now.

               It’s another one of those things that not many people seem to get… Oh, well!

               http://www.albartlett.org/presentations/arithmetic_population_energy_transcript_english.html

               English transcript of Arithmetic, Population and Energy – a talk by Al Bartlett

               I have watched his talks and read that transcript dozens of times! I never get tired of it because it is just so clear and straightforward!

               1. Raw growth without careful planning and investment is costly and harmful.
                  Sometimes change is good though. An excerpt from “Death in the Air”
                  The creation of the National Health Service in 1948 had imporved the quality of medical care in Britain, especially for the elderly, women and the poor. Suddenly, virtually all health services were free. Doctors were better educated. Sanitation, water and food safety regulation reduced the number of communicable diseases. The pharmaceutical industry developed new drugs for mental illness , and the introduction of antibiotics gradually eradicated many epidemics, like tuberculosis and cholera, which were major killers. Death tolls shrank, particularly for infants. But there were no vaccines that could protect Londoners from air pollution.

                  Now many parts of the world face bad pollution problems, for the same reasons that faced people many decades ago. History at least rhymes, especially when change does not happen in critical areas.

      2. This is what President Trump stated about the “growth paradigm” at his Protecting American Workers Roundtable yesterday in Minnesota. You libs would be wise to read, and understand this.

         But what is happening is growth. And growth really solves just about all the problems. And the growth is far beyond what anybody thought. Nobody thought they’d see growth like the kind of growth — during debates I would talk about — we’d have a debate and I’d talk about growth, and nobody knew what I was talking about. Well, the growth has been far bigger than anybody ever thought possible.

         And the numbers — you know, if we go up one point in GDP — one point — it’s $3 trillion and it’s 10 million jobs. Think of that. One point. And we’ll see if we hit the fours. But we’re going to be very close to hitting the fours. And if we would have said fours — if we would have said twos, nobody would have believed it. But I think we’re going to be starting to hit fours. So we’ll see. Those numbers are going to start coming out over the next number of months and over the next number of years. But I think we’ll even go higher than that.

         The Words of President Trump
         https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-protecting-american-workers-roundtable/

         1. One point in GDP is one percent which is about 187 billion dollars. Nowhere near 10 million jobs, maybe a few hundred thousand depending on how it’s spent or how much companies decide they need more workers. You do know that much of that money goes overseas.
            I bet more people will be poor and a few will get richer. Then the next recession starts and even more people get poor.

            1. Oh crum, the current inflation rate is 2.5% so if GDP rises 1 percent we lose.

         2. You libs would be wise to read, and understand this.

            Don’t suppose you understand the meaning of being, ‘Fractally Wrong’?!

            But what is happening is growth. And growth really solves just about all the problems.

            No it doesn;t!

            And the growth is far beyond what anybody thought. Nobody thought they’d see growth like the kind of growth — during debates I would talk about — we’d have a debate and I’d talk about growth, and nobody knew what I was talking about. Well, the growth has been far bigger than anybody ever thought possible.

            Bullshit!

            http://donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/

            The classic example of that backward intuition was my own introduction to systems analysis, the world model. Asked by the Club of Rome to show how major global problems — poverty and hunger, environmental destruction, resource depletion, urban deterioration, unemployment — are related and how they might be solved, Forrester made a computer model and came out with a clear leverage point1: Growth. Not only population growth, but economic growth. Growth has costs as well as benefits, and we typically don’t count the costs — among which are poverty and hunger, environmental destruction, etc. — the whole list of problems we are trying to solve with growth! What is needed is much slower growth, much different kinds of growth, and in some cases no growth or negative growth.

            The world’s leaders are correctly fixated on economic growth as the answer to virtually all problems, but they’re pushing with all their might in the wrong direction.

         3. Hey george, I am not taking any advice from fools who voted for that A-hole.

5. STUDY CONFIRMS BEETLES EXPLOIT WARM WINTERS TO EXPAND RANGE

   “Although the insect is diminutive, the bark beetle’s impact is colossal. Massive outbreaks in recent decades have consumed large swaths of Western forests, where 100,000 trees may fall every day. Some regions have lost 90 percent of the conifers. The outbreaks, mounting in size and severity, are now infesting new tree species and expanding beyond the Continental Divide across North America and into boreal forests.”

   https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-06/danl-scb061918.php

   1. And,

      EARTH’S INTACT FORESTS VANISHING AT ACCELERATING PACE:

      Average daily loss over the first 17 years of this century was more than 200 square kilometres (75 square miles). “Degradation of intact forest represents a global tragedy, as we are systematically destroying a crucial foundation of climate stability,” said Frances Seymour, a senior distinguished fellow at the World Resources Institute (WRI), and a contributor to the research, presented this week at a conference in Oxford. “Forests are the only safe, natural, proven and affordable infrastructure we have for capturing and storing carbon.”

      Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-06-loss-earth-intact-forests-scientists.html#jCp

6. Barring tragic circumstances (likely) the world will be primarily Asian and African in population by 2050.
   The world and most regions and countries are experiencing unprecedentedly rapid demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the huge expansion of human numbers: four billion have been added since 1950. Projections for the next half century expect a highly divergent world, with stagnation or potential decline in parts of the developed world and continued rapid growth in the least developed regions. Other demographic processes are also undergoing extraordinary change: women’s fertility has dropped rapidly and life expectancy has risen to new highs. Past trends in fertility and mortality have led to very young populations in high fertility countries in the developing world and to increasingly older populations in the developed world. Contemporary societies are now at very different stages of their demographic transitions. This paper summarizes key trends in population size, fertility and mortality, and age structures during these transitions.

   https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2781829/

   Once we reach zero population growth (again barring tragic occurrences) sometime later this century, the developed countries of North America and Europe will have lost much of their native population due to decreasing fertility rates. Migration is certain to occur in those circumstances and has started already.

   In the meantime we have to transistion away from fossil fuels, provide power and services for a growing number of people on the planet while trying to maintain some form of wild natural state. These are no easy tasks and failures of any of them will be a tragedy. Room for error is diminishing rabidly, most decisions will have to be correct the first time even to just reduce future death and ecological diminishment. The global culture will have to move past the growth paradigm and toward a reduction paradigm in a very short chronological period.

   1. In your last paragraph, you forgot to provide any realistic suggestions of how any of that stuff can be achieved.

      1. So one has to ask, why is it that people like you always expect others to provide realistic suggestions of how any of that stuff can be achieved, for you? Sounds like you are unwilling or unable to do so yourself, so let’s call a spade a spade, your question is either purely rhetorical or you are just trolling here!

         Then again, who knows, maybe this old TED talk by Robert Wright at TED2006 about why progress is not a zero-sum game might help you understand why it is just as much your job as everyone else’s to find realistic suggestions of how any of that stuff can be achieved.
         https://www.ted.com/talks/robert_wright_on_optimism#t-384261

         Hint, it doesn’t involve setting up international trade barriers or building walls to keep people out. The only possible realistic solutions at this juncture in human history are all global and no longer national, in nature!

         https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/18/china-trump-trade-war-threats-the-fool-builds-walls-media

         “An editorial in the People’s Daily on Saturday said the latest trade provocations allowed China “to see more clearly the face of the Trump administration, one that is rude, unreasonable, selfish and headstrong”. China’s official Xinhua news agency added: “The wise man builds bridges, the fool builds walls. With economic globalisation there are no secluded and isolated islands.” !”

         1. Yes, it’s rhetorical, because I don’t believe in any of the hippy-dippy “I’d like to teach the world to sing” stuff. Nothing of the sort will happen. For one, the business community won’t let it since they are only interested in whatever will grow their profits. Second, nobody in their right mind would deliberately vote away their job and standards of living, which is what would be lost without our small businesses, natural resource extraction industries, entrepreneurs and manufacturers.

            1. Yes, it’s rhetorical, because I don’t believe in any of the hippy-dippy “I’d like to teach the world to sing” stuff.

               Typical pointless strawman reply! No one here does either.

               As for the rest of your reply it is just fractally wrong! You are living in the past and don’t seem to understand the changes that are currently happening in the world.

               https://samharris.org/
               #130 – UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME
               A Conversation with Andrew Yang

               In this episode of the Waking Up podcast, Sam Harris speaks with presidential candidate Andrew Yang about “universal basic income” (UBI). They discuss the state of the economy, the rise of automation and AI, the arguments for and against UBI, and other topics.

               Andrew Yang is the founder of Venture for America, a major non-profit that places top college graduates in start-ups for two years in emerging U.S. cities to generate job growth and train the next generation of entrepreneurs. Yang has been the CEO, co-founder or executive at a number of technology and education companies. Yang was named a Presidential Ambassador of Global Entrepreneurship and a Champion of Change by the White House and one of Fast Company’s “100 Most Creative People in Business.” He was also named to the National Advisory Council for Innovation and Entrepreneurship of the Department of Commerce.

               And this is just one example of what 21st century high tech millenial China looks like:
               https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGVwrWYyjYg

               You still seem to think coal, steel and 19th century industrial revolution era manufacturing jobs are coming back? Hippies?! Get real! These young Chinese entrepeneurs engineers and scientists all speak fluent English, They understand the world. So does Mark Zuckerberg and he speaks fluent Mandarin, how many languages and cultures do you understand?

               1. You actually think Universal basic income will come to the United States??? When it goes against our fundamental work ethic belief that getting something you didn’t earn is immoral? Why do you think majority of Americans have complete hatred toward food stamps and the welfare queens Reagan mentioned and anybody getting gibs to pop out more children? You must be smoking blunts or something before posting here.

               2. You actually think Universal basic income will come to the United States??? When it goes against our fundamental work ethic belief that getting something you didn’t earn is immoral?

                  No I don’t THINK it will, I absolutely KNOW it will because there is no other choice…the alternative is total social chaos as has never been seen before. AND, ‘Fundamental Work Ethic’ my ass! That is BS and a fundamental misconception about human nature.

                  Meritocracy is an illusion promulgated by the more fortunate who think they are better than others solely due to good luck.
                  But even that misses the real point, we are on the verge of a major societal disruption due to AI and robotics and there will be no jobs to substitute for the vast majority of them. Jobs are disappearing already, what do you propose as an alternative?

                  BTW, You really think getting something you didn’t earn (with actual work) is immoral?! Then either you don’t understand how the 1% got rich, or you are a hypocrite, because it sure as hell wasn’t by working.

                  https://www.yang2020.com/what-is-ubi/

                  What is UBI?
                  In the next 12 years, 1 out of 3 American workers are at risk of losing their jobs to new technologies—and unlike with previous waves of automation, this time new jobs will not appear quickly enough in large enough numbers to make up for it. To avoid an unprecedented crisis, we’re going to have to find a new solution, unlike anything we’ve done before. It all begins with Universal Basic Income for all American adults, no strings attached – a foundation on which a stable, prosperous, and just society can be built.

               3. What America needs in the short term is not universal basic income. It needs better public transportation, universal health care, access too finance for the poor, legalization of small businesses in residential neighborhoods, sensible education options, reform of police and courts to end repression and racism and promote public safety, etc. None of these “cost money”, they just require sensible laws.

               4. What America needs in the short term is not universal basic income.

                  America needs to plan for the future and while I agree with most of your points they need to be part and parcel of a realistic plan! Denial of reality tends not to work in the long term.

               5. I don’t have much hope that the religious right and most of the Trump base will ever leave their fantasy land of factless lies and self-reinforced delusion. I think we have lost them at this point and there is no returning from the “national reality show” that has been pushed into the public mainstream over the last few decades.
                  The American Fantasylander is full of lies and hate speech. They hate foreigners, they hate other Americans and sell snake oil to their own base.
                  It will end on the cold uncaring hard anvil of reality just as other addicts end and the cost will be high for all involved.

               6. Well stated, GF

               7. The silver lining, is that Trump supporters are but a minority of the American public. And while it may be a long shot, the rest of America might actually wake the fuck up and vote for a real change next time.

                  http://time.com/5073531/donald-trump-2020-reelection-poll/

                  Just 36% of registered voters would support President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election, a new poll finds, a precipitous drop from the 46% of votes he received last year.

               8. I listened to Univ Basic Income podcast referenced by Fred above.
                  Very interesting for all. I came in skeptical, and remain so, but a little better educated.
                  My cons include-
                  This is just a bandaid for an economy in the early stages of overshoot, getting older and automated. It would not achieve a substantial longterm benefit.
                  The funding proposed is a VAT (at 1/2 european level). Is this really a good use for the extra tax? If you are going to collect and spend that money, you could get more bang for your buck by spending it on targeted programs (like drug rehab, early childhood care and education, infrastructure, diabetes prevention, homelessness, etc) Many people would just squander the money on alcohol and drugs, entertainment, gambling, and other frivolous pursuits. That is my primary concern.

               9. This is just a bandaid for an economy in the early stages of overshoot, getting older and automated. It would not achieve a substantial longterm benefit.

                  I think we are already well past the early stages of ecological overshoot of which the symptoms affecting the current global economy are just one consequence. We obviously need completely new systems.

                  UBI may well be but a temporary bandaid for a much deeper necessary transition. In any case the systems we have in place now simply aren’t working. Perhaps pestilence, famine, civil war and dieoff will be what we have to look forward to.

                  Many people would just squander the money on alcohol and drugs, entertainment, gambling, and other frivolous pursuits. That is my primary concern.

                  We need to leave all our preconceptions at the door and look at what the science of human behavior and the empirical data actually tell us about that. Granted this is from Andrew Yang’s website so perhaps should be take with a few grains of salt, but nonetheless something to think about.

                  Won’t people spend their money on dumb things like drugs and alcohol?

                  The data doesn’t show this. In many of the studies where cash is given to the poor, there has been no increase in drug and alcohol use. In fact, many people use it to try and reduce their alcohol consumption or substance abuse. In Alaska, for example, people regularly put the petroleum dividend they receive from the state in accounts for their children’s education. The idea that poor people will be irresponsible with their money and squander it seems to be a biased stereotype rather than a truth.

                  Decision-making has been shown to improve when people have greater economic security. Giving people resources will enable them to make better decisions to improve their situation. As Dutch philosopher Rutger Bregman puts it, “Poverty is not a lack of character. It’s a lack of cash.”

                  To be clear, my own view is that I’m agnostic on whether or not something like UBI would work but I don’t see our current economic system continuing to function. So at the very least we need to start the conversation about where we are going and how we are going to get there. Pretending otherwise and sticking our heads in the sand isn’t very helpful either.

         2. Fred,

            Don’t concede the premise without giving it a very careful look.

            In this case the premise is wrong. Fertility is dropping everywhere, and the transition away from fossil fuels is very realistic. Really, the primary thing preventing it from happening much faster is resistance from the small minority that profits from FF.

            1. Fertility is not dropping.
               The fertility rate is dropping, but the world is still well above replacement, and population momentum will keep the population increasing for decades even if the world Fertility rate dropped below replacement.

               1. Well, no, and…no.

                  Fertility is measured by the fertility rate, not by total births. It’s dropped to very close to replacement – it’s likely less than 2.25 by now. And…if you meant total births, well, that’s dropping too: 139.8M in 2012 and 138.1M in 2016.

                  Now, births are indeed still higher than deaths*, and population will keep increasing for a while.

                  But the path to dealing with population is quite clear. The premise of the comment being discussed, was that solutions to the problems in the comment before that were not realistically possible. And…not so.

                  *Those pesky public health dogooders keep reducing infant and child mortality (as well as adult) in places like Africa. Fortunately, that’s the best way to reduce fertility…

               2. From your post of 06/21/2018 at 11:01 am:
                  “Fertility is dropping everywhere,”

                  From my responding comment correcting this error:
                  “Fertility is not dropping. The fertility rate is dropping,”

                  From Nick’s comment of12:03AM: Fertility is measured by the fertility rate, not by total births.

                  I know the difference between “fertility” and the “fertility rate”. I said what I meant, and I didn’t mention total births. Don’t try to pretend I made a mistake. Or create your own facts, like a new meaning for fertility.

                  From the dictionary:
                  fer·til·i·ty

                  the quality of being fertile; productiveness.

                  You said this with regards to the current World Fertility Rate:
                  ” It’s dropped to very close to replacement – it’s likely less than 2.25 by now. ”
                  From “Our World in Data” (https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate)
                  “The global average fertility rate is just below 2.5 children per woman today.” This is well above replacement, and well above your unreferenced claim.

                  The premise of the comment being discussed, was that solutions to the problems in the comment before that were not realistically possible. And…not so.

                  You make a Trump move by suggesting I don’t understand the fertility rate when I lead with a correct usage and correction of your error in my comment. Your stats are wrong. You admit that population momentum will remain a problem. So:
                  Is to so.

               3. Sigh.

                  Ok, one thing at a time. First of all, what the heck are you referring to, with “fertility”? You provided “the quality of being fertile; productiveness.”. That’s a popular definition, and might be described as “fecundity”. It’s not what demographers use.

                  The total fertility rate is dropping. So is the crude birth rate, and even total births. So…what are you referring to, when you say that “fertility” is not dropping? How do you measure it? What are the current numbers?

               4. You used the term “fertility”. I pointed out that you weren’t using it correctly. You are correct on one point: it is not a term that demographers use, and yet, here we are discussing demographics and you used it.

                  What are the current numbers?

                  In my comment of 06/24/2018 at 2:17 pm, I stated the current number and a source. You are responding to my comment and yet you can’t remember that I quoted the current Global Fertility Rate? I mean, come on. It’s a short comment. Go back and have a look.

                  You made up statistics, you deny that you used the word “fertility” incorrectly, you don’t have an answer for the central point under discussion- that population momentum will keep the population increasing for decades. Your notion that things aren’t as bad as they seem is, shall we say, suspect because you made up your stats.

                  And now you are trying to suggest that this is somehow all my fault?.

               5. Double sigh.

                  Yes, if you go to a Public Health conference, and talk to population planning professionals, and say that “globally, fertility is falling”, they’d know that you were talking about the fertility rate (and they’d agree).

                  Yes, we disagreed slightly on the current level of the global fertility rate* – is that important? My argument was that the fertility rate is dropping, and I suspect that we agree that it is.

                  Why is this important? Because if the fertility rate is dropping, population has to eventually stabilize and begin to drop. And, that brings us back to the starting point of the discussion, which is: are there realistic strategies to solve our current problems? The answer is yes.

                  *This was my source.
                  Look at the table for “World historical TFR (1950–2015)
                  UN, average variant, 2010 rev” and project the rate of change for the last two values.
                  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate

7. Solar and wind’s monthly contributions, assuming equal amounts of kWhs (with an updated image). We see that they are fairly complementary. With a bit of planning, ISOs should be able to tailor the generation profile to match the monthly consumption pattern fairly closely.

   

   1. Nick, looks simple on a nationwide monthly chart. The grid is managed minute by minute, and on a rough regional basis. The task isn’t all that easy. Its going to take a lot of innovation in the way the grid is managed. Lots of growing pains.

      A new report projects 50% renewable source for global electricity by 2050-
      https://www.utilitydive.com/news/world-on-track-for-50-renewables-by-2050-says-bloomberg-energy-outlook/526052/

      Here is the public version of the report-
      https://about.bnef.com/new-energy-outlook/#toc-download

      1. Yes, it will take a lot of hard work by ISO and utility engineers.

         But, the basic tech is here, and is well known and tested. Overbuilding, long distance transmission, daily and seasonal storage, Demand Side Management (DSM) – they’re all old and cost effective.

         The current grid is overbuilt by a factor of over two to one. DSM is badly under-used because utility regulation rewards capital investment and not efficiency.

         This stuff is very familiar to utility engineers. Integrating this stuff is going to give them headaches, but not nightmares.

8. And speaking of carbon dioxide, this is an unmitigated fucking disaster if I ever saw one.

   HEINEKEN’S AMSTEL AND SMITHS BEER HIT BY CO₂ SUPPLY SHORTAGE

   Supplies of Heineken’s John Smith’s Extra Smooth and Amstel kegs have been hit by an industry-wide shortage of carbon dioxide.

   “Quite why they didn’t anticipate this, I don’t know.”

   https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44545010

   1. IDIOTS!!!

      Here’s a Biologist’s ode to St. Patrick and the science of beer.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6dzUOYTQtQ

      Cheers! 😉

   2. If they brewed real beer they wouldn’t have a problem.

      NAOM

9. Seattle Anarchist addresses city council after Amazon tax repeal
   (1:10 minute video)

   Moscow’s Sparrow Hills/Luzhniki Stadium Cable Car to Open Soon

   “…once the system becomes operational, it will ease transport for visitors travelling between Luzhniki Stadium and Sparrow Hill. With the cable car, travel times between these two destinations will be reduced to five minutes — down from 15 minutes via car.“

   STADIUM LUZHNIKI канатная дорога
   (5:03 minute video of Moscow’s Gondola/Cable Car System)

   Eleven Kilometers of 3S Gondola Announced in Santo Domingo

   “The capital of the Dominican Republic has revealed their plans to construct the city’s second urban gondola — the Santo Domingo West Cable Car…

   …this new ropeway proposal would result in the construction of a massive 6-station 3S gondola which would span 11km (6.8mi) and connect three municipalities in the city’s westside (i.e. Los Alcarrizos, Santo Domingo Este and Distrito Nacional)…

   If the Dominican capital builds their tricable system, it would become the world’s longest 3S gondola — surpassing the current record-holder in Vietnam (7.9km Hon Thom 3S) by more than three kilometres (1.9mi)!”

   Gondola is best transit option between downtown and Old Strathcona, advisory board says

   “The Edmonton Transit System advisory board… suggests a gondola would be uniquely well-suited to connect commuters with downtown and Old Strathcona…

   The report outlined several benefits of an urban gondola, including:

   • Gondolas can accommodate between 4,000 and 6,000 passengers per hour in each direction, transporting the same number of people per hour as 2,000 cars or 100 buses.
   • Gondolas alleviate traffic congestion.
   • Gondolas transport people at roughly the same speed as a conventional bus when stops are factored in.
   • Gondolas are extremely reliable with a better safety rating compared to other modes of transit.
   • Gondolas are one of the most environmentally friendly modes of transit using roughly 0.1 kilowatt hour (kWh) of electricity per kilometre per passenger, and would have the smallest impact on the ecosystem of the river valley.
   • Gondolas offer minimal wait times for passengers and easy integration with existing transit.
   • The prefabricated design means gondola construction is often completed in under 12 months.”

   

   1. Cable car snaps in Gulmarg, 7 die, 4 from one Delhi family

      Seven tourists, four of them from a Delhi family, were killed when a cable car snapped after a tree fell on it at the famous ski-resort of Gulmarg in north Kashmir’s Baramulla district, police said.
      The tree fell on the ropeway of Gulmarg Gondola and snapped it leading to the cable car falling down, a police official said.

      https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/srinagar/jk-5-killed-after-two-gondola-towers-collapse-in-gulmarg/articleshow/59309982.cms

      

      1. Sure, let’s see how other forms of transportation fare when trees fall on them.

         Are Gondolas and Cable Cars Safe?

         “the Switzerland’s Office fédéral de la statistique OFS recently put out some new statistics that help shed some light on the safety issue. While by no means definitive, we’ve compiled some of the important numbers in the tables below and our preliminary investigations suggest Cable Propelled Transit technologies such as Funiculars, Gondolas and Aerial Trams are amongst the safest public transit technologies around.“

         What About Motor Vehicles/Road Traffic?

         “Road Traffic Accidents 10 [tenth place in fatalities, globally] 1,208,629” ~ worldlifeexpectancy

         “Road traffic injuries are a major but neglected public health challenge that requires concerted efforts for effective and sustainable prevention. Of all the systems with which people have to deal every day, road traffic systems are the most complex and the most dangerous. Worldwide, an estimated 1.2 million people are killed in road crashes each year and as many as 50 million are injured.” ~ World Health Organization

         “The global economic cost of MVCs [motor vehicle collisions] was estimated at $518 billion per year in 2003 with $100 billion of that occurring in developing countries. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention estimated the U.S. cost in 2000 at $230 billion.” ~ Wikipedia

         “Research shows that moving vehicles have the highest impact on greenhouse emissions. The 450 million vehicles on the road today account for half of the world’s total consumption, generate nearly one fifth of greenhouse gas emissions, and have pervasive effects on land use and air quality. Personal transportation (i.e., home use) is responsible for 30 to 50% of greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, 33% of toxic water pollution, and over 45% of toxic air emissions…
         In addition, fueling passenger cars accounts for more than one quarter of world oil consumption.” ~ TheDailyGreen

         “The Geography of Nowhere traces America’s evolution from a nation of Main Streets and coherent communities to a land where every place is like no place in particular, where the cities are dead zones and the countryside is a wasteland of cartoon architecture and parking lots… Kunstler depicts our nation’s evolution from the Pilgrim settlements to the modern auto suburb in all its ghastliness. The Geography of Nowhere tallies up the huge economic, social, and spiritual costs that America is paying for its car-crazed lifestyle. It is also a wake-up call for citizens to reinvent the places where we live and work, to build communities that are once again worthy of our affection. Kunstler proposes that by reviving civic art and civic life, we will rediscover public virtue and a new vision of the common good.” ~ Book description for The Geography of Nowhere, by James Howard Kunstler

         Five dead after two-vehicle collision near town of Millet, south of Edmonton

         

         1. Just playing your bullshit game Caelan

            1. Do you also go by the HuntingtonBeach handle?

               In any case, the ‘bullshit game’ is the status-quo, which I’m happy to piss all over, while some people piss into the wind in its defense. Would you know what to do to save your ass if the status-quo went away? Of course, many wouldn’t, so relatively useless and self-domesticated they’ve become.

               Good luck finding gondola accidents if you want to keep playing. They are few and far between.

            2. Jimmy- When statistics and logic go against you, you should just suck it up- regardless of who tells you.

10. Solar panel prices are set to crash this year.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-20/solar-prices-nosedive-after-china-pullback-floods-global-market

11. EX-NASA SCIENTIST: 30 YEARS ON, WORLD IS FAILING ‘MISERABLY’ TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE

    “All we’ve done is agree there’s a problem,” Hansen told the Guardian. “We agreed that in 1992 [at the Earth summit in Rio] and re-agreed it again in Paris [at the 2015 climate accord]. We haven’t acknowledged what is required to solve it. Promises like Paris don’t mean much, it’s wishful thinking. It’s a hoax that governments have played on us since the 1990s.”

    “I’m convinced we will deal with the problem,” he said. “[But] not before there is an amount of suffering that is unconscionable and should’ve been avoided.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/19/james-hansen-nasa-scientist-climate-change-warning

    1. SOME RARE GOOD CLIMATE NEWS: THE FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRY IS WEAKER THAN EVER

       “The IEEFA report labeled the industry “weaker than it has been in decades” and laid out its basic frailties, the first of which is paradoxical. Fracking has produced a sudden surge of gas and oil into the market, lowering prices – which means many older investments (Canada’s tar sands, for instance) no longer make economic sense. Fossil fuel has been transformed into a pure commodity business, and since the margins on fracking are narrow at best, its financial performance has been woeful. The IEEFA describes investors as “shell-shocked” by poor returns.”

       Meanwhile: “Every week seems to bring a new record-low price for clean energy: the most recent being a Nevada solar plant clocking in at 2.3 cents per kilowatt hour, even with Trump’s tariffs on Chinese panels.”

       https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/21/climate-change-fossil-fuel-industry-never-been-weaker

       1. This sounds more than a wee bit dodgy to me!

          From a link in the Guardian article:
          http://edmontonjournal.com/business/energy/people-are-going-to-die-protesting-trans-mountain-pipeline-former-bank-of-canada-governor

          The government must enforce rules allowing construction of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion even though opponents might die fighting it, former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge says.

          “We’re going to have some very unpleasant circumstances. There are some people that are going to die in protesting construction of this pipeline. We have to understand that,” he said at an event Wednesday in Edmonton put on by law firm Bennett Jones.

          “Nevertheless, we have to be willing to enforce the law once it’s there … It’s going to take some fortitude to stand up.”

          Hey, what’s a few hundred pipeline protesters that will need to be killed off by upstanding Canadian law enforcement officials with the fortitude to stand up, eh?!

          Compared to millions of climate change refugees and the destruction of global ecosystems leading to the sixth mass extinction, it is truly just a minor temporary inconvenience…

          This kind of entrenched attitude by fossil fuel promoters is is eventually going to make the accounting the Nazis faced at Nuremberg look like a misdemeanor jaywalking ticket in juvenile court in comparison… There will eventually be an accounting! The Nazis only murdered 6 million Jews, these people are murdering the entire planet and possibly billions of people along with it.

          1. Meanwhile the pipeline(s) WILL be built. And, according to the Wittgenstein Center, projecting population by age, sex, and educational attainment for almost all countries of the World, Africa’s population may ONLY rise to some 2.6 billion by 2100. That number is only 60% of the 4.4 billion predicted by the UN. They’ll all be driving EVs, of course, and, with no game animals left, there’ll be no reason to enforce speed limits on all the new (asphalt) roads crisscrossing the continent.

             1. BTW I travel to Uganda every year and have seen NO sign of decreasing fertility rates because ALL schools are church based and not interested in having fewer people to draw on for their programs.

                1. Per a simple google search, Uganda’s fertility has declined 19% in the last 20 years. The problem is that it’s still way too high, at 5.7 children per woman.

          2. The Nazis only murdered 6 million Jews

             A tiny quibble: they also murdered another 6 million dissidents, Gypsies, gays and others.

             1. Trust me on this Nick, I know exactly what the Nazis did… My point still stands, The people who are continuing to promote fossil fuels at this particular juncture in history knowing what we all know to be factual, are not among the group I would call the good guys.

                Especially when David Dodge’s ilk, point blank, comes out and says that it might be necessary to kill protesters. Note he did not just say they needed to be arrested and prosecuted for breaking the law, he said it would be necessary to kill them.

                Any questions?!

                1. Yep, as a Magyar I’m sure you do. Just wanted people to know more of the full history.

                2. Isn’t promoting public murder against the law? I know I couldn’t get away with fomenting crime in the public forum, how can this Dodge?

                3. Well, you decide how to interpret his statement:

                   While he wouldn’t speculate in an interview how fatalities might occur during the Trans Mountain expansion, he said he’s worried about what will happen among the extremist minority among the pipeline foes.

                   “We have seen it other places, that equivalent of religious zeal leading to flouting of the law in a way that could lead to death … Inevitably, when you get that fanaticism, if you will, you’re going to have trouble,” he said.

                   “Are we collectively as a society willing to allow the fanatics to obstruct the general will of the population? That then turns out to be a real test of whether we actually do believe in the rule of law.”

                   So if indigenous people are going to put themselves in harms way by unlawfully protesting against the pipeline and it should come to pass that they somehow meet an untimely end, then as long as ‘we’ (Canadians) are a society based on the rule of law that is just an unfortunate occurrence totally beyond our control.

                   The protesters after all would be obstructing that which the ‘people’ have deemed to be their ultimate will! BTW none of that has anything to do with the personal financial gain of a small number of Canadian bankers, politicians and oil men!

                   Heil, Fucking, Dodge! Oil Company uber alles!

                4. Seems hyped to me. However, “the general will of the population” is probably pure bullshit. I doubt if the Canadians get to vote on those laws or policies. I know that Americans rarely get to vote on anything, it’s all decided for them by a small group of representatives (or corporations). The 2E-6 deciding for the rest.
                   Democracy, who needs democracy?

                5. Democracy, who needs democracy?

                   Good point, since it took the Athenians, Spartans and the Corinthians a couple of centuries before they even considered all Greeks to be equal as human beings, at which time they came together and decided that it was the Persians that were subhuman…

    2. “I’m convinced we will deal with the problem,” he said. “[But] not before there is an amount of suffering that is unconscionable and should’ve been avoided.”

       That was actually said by Climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer, who also testified at the same 1988 hearing about sea level rise 😉

       1. That quote seems to apply to almost every problem in the world especially the immigration crisis in the USA.

          NAOM

          1. The Wrong Immigration Crisis
             https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/01/trumps-border-wall-attacks-the-wrong-immigration-crisis-000286

             1. Yep, spot on. $14B would go a very long way to helping defeat the problems in Central America and ease poverty there. If effort is made at the US/Mex border it would be better to tear out fencing where it interferes with wild life and add a virtual wall with better border patrols and remote surveillance. A physical wall would need more patrols anyway as people who really want to get to the USA would just go straight over it so it would still need to patrol it.

                NAOM

12. Mass Extinctions on Earth Coincided With Out-of-Whack Carbon Cycles

    Previous mass extinctions in Earth’s history can illuminate how much carbon human civilization can pump into the environment before risking a catastrophic climate change — and that point may be coming up within a century.

    That’s the conclusion of Daniel Rothman, a geophysicist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who built a database of fossil records going back half a billion years. Rothman found the periods in which large percentages of existing species died off coincided with big swings in the carbon isotopes found in those records, suggesting the planet’s carbon cycle was out of whack.
    

    https://www.seeker.com/earth/climate/mass-extinctions-on-earth-coincided-with-out-of-whack-carbon-cycles

    1. “My intuition has been bothering me of late about the carbon cycle.” ~ Caelan MacIntyre

       Extinction Events and The Carbon Cycle

13. Duke study: Fracking chemicals stimulate fat cell development

    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:0rTos0vtrJIJ:www.post-gazette.com/powersource/consumers-powersource/2018/06/20/duke-university-study-Fracking-chemicals-stimulate-fat-cell-development/stories/201806200207+&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-b-1

    (Maybe this will be of interest to our shallow, stupid populace?)

14. As far as global coal production is concerned it had actually fallen for a few years but is back at it in 2017.
    
    World coal production increased by 105 million tonnes of oil equivalent or 3.2%, the fastest rate of growth since 2011
    Production rose by 56 mtoe (3.6%) in China and 23 mtoe (6.9%) in the US. Interestingly, the increase in US production came despite a further fall in domestic consumption, with US coal producers instead increasing exports to Asia.
    https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/coal/coal-production.html

    The IEA report for 2016 has a lot of info
    http://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/august/coal-falls-as-gas-rises-world-energy-balances-in-2016.html

    What I find interesting is that US coal use prior to 1960 and after 1900 had two major long term drops. Coal use took off after 1960, which I assume was the electric power industry.
    Still the drops and rises show that one can never assume that a descending resource will stay descending.

    I am getting tired of talking about coal, it should have been going away, but considering it has tripled worldwide in not that long of a time, any small descent means there is still way too much being burned. It’s still here and it’s still big. Renewables can reduce it and undercut it’s cost, but I have the feeling the way things go in this world it may be burned right through the century.

    

15. The U.S. oil and gas industry emits 13 million metric tons of the potent greenhouse gas methane from its operations each year, 60 percent more than estimated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, according to a new study published today in the journal Science.

    Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-06-oil-gas-methane-emissions-percent.html#jCp

    1. That is equivalent to about 2 gigatons of carbon dioxide.
       The US sure is a gassy country and has also been putting out a lot of international brain farts lately.

       1. The US sure is a gassy country and has also been putting out a lot of international brain farts lately.

          As such the US is also contributing to the immigration crisis on its own southern border. Climate change is a major cause of crop failures in Central and South America forcing the population to flee famine and starvation. Climate Change BTW, is also a major contributing factor to migrant crisis in the EU. Crop failures have been happening in the Middle East, Syria is but one extreme example.

          https://www.thedailybeast.com/climate-change-sparked-the-border-migration-crisis

          One factor causing migrants to risk everything—even potentially losing their children—to travel through the heat of summer in the dangerous desert and towards the barbed wire fences and tent cities springing up just south of the United States border: climate change.

          Many of the migrants being detained here now hail from what’s referred variously as the Dry Corridor or the Northern Triangle, which consists of the three countries immediately south of Mexico: Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras.

          The agricultural crisis of the Northern Triangle area isn’t something that cropped up overnight, but has been in the making for more than a decade. The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations published a report in June 2016 that described the depth of the food insecurity crisis in the region, leaving 3.5 million people, or nearly 30 percent of the population, food insecure from crop losses estimated to be as high as 90 percent.

          It will be interesting to see what happens, when due to climate change, crops start failing in the US bread basket. I guess by then it will be Trump supporters trying to illegally cross over the wall being built by Canada… /sarc!

16. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-21/its-been-difficult-few-days-musk-shutters-solarcity-facilities-across-9-states
    Utilities WON round 1. Solar City lacks solutions that make sense. DC Powerwall discontinued. Hopefully, use your EV soon. The issue is North American Pure Grid Tied PV Systems by design have NO UTILITY without the Utility as per Utility requirements UL1741 / IEEE 1547. Would you buy a car that F#%king dies for 300 seconds every bump in the road? Utility-driven additional safety standards adds unnecessary roof mounted complexity which endangers installers by additional roof time falls. https://solarbuildermag.com/bos/nec-2017-module-level-solar-system-shutdown/
    Our utility is now complaining about their own standard since there is no ride thru as the ancient fossilized grid by design lacks resilience. eChem (aka Batteries) Provides limited Utility for Powering BAU since it results in 2-5X times cost of Energy and converts clean into toxic energy.
    Round 2: ENPH appears to have a solution? While not a fan of complex electronics on the roof, there is NO single point of failure. Operates when you remove an optional Battery. They get it! Pure PV power by Day, eChem by Night.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4181463-enphase-energy-ensemble-gold-standard

    1. How not to design a grid tied solar system
       http://www.evtv.me.s3-website-us-east-1.amazonaws.com/vidarch.html

       1. Richard (evtv.me) is focused an inapproatiate eChem type for Stationary storage.
          He does not grasp the economics of Energy flows in Autonomous PV Systems yet. An Autonomous system is not Autonomous unless you can remove the Battery and still have Pure PV Power. This is simple to do with Meanwell HLG CC/CV “chargers” even retro an existing battery system. Overbuilding PV results in kWh at a fraction of the Cost of Toxic eChem Power. Batteries are like unconventional NG – Limited lifespan. But he may turn out right using complete orphaned Tesla paks if Tesla survives to make millions of M3.
          see – India approves off-grid and decentralized solar programme for 118MW by 2020
          https://www.pv-tech.org/news/india-approves-off-grid-and-decentralised-solar-program-for-118mw-by-2020. The energy future is decentralized.

          1. But he may turn out right using complete orphaned Tesla paks if Tesla survives to make millions of M3.

             No, that misses the point completely! Forget Jack and forget Tesla. Think fully functioning dual purpose EVs, used as transport and also designed from the get go as a storage battery. They can be linked together by being plugged in anywhere be it at home or street chargers, parking garages, what have you. They can be form of storage for individual homes or small but smart microgrids. Happening in Europe already. I’m sure we will see much more of that. Some utilities will see the writing on the wall and will partner up with companies like Ecotricity in London, those that don’t, won’t survive! Good riddance to them.

             1. With Tesla battery packs losing about 10 percent charge capacity at 186,000 miles, they are a good choice for long term storage and use capability. Be great if they could eventually get to the 30 year time of use before recycling.

             2. Yes Indeed, but Forget the Power Companies! A car is a rolling Power Plant. That will sell a lot of ePickups. ChadaMo ( TEPCO/NiassanLeaf) will do Bidirectional Power. Anyone seen a functional CCS L3 charge port used yet in a bidirectional power flow mode without Faulting the Cars firmware? I think I read SMA and Audi have just teamed up for a power solution. Need Standards. The Edison Institute and TPTB will not be excited about such.

                1. The guy over at Sub.media that I post videos here sometimes from went to Puerto Rico not too long after its hurricane, and, if recalled, mentioned them needing imported generators, and my first thought was if they could just use modified ICE’s for that, at least as a stop-gap measure.
                   If all else fails, maybe you can attach a windmill or waterwheel to a Tesla.

                2. Tesla has installed Powerwall batteries at 662 locations in Puerto Rico. A little more than attaching a Tesla to a windmill.

                   https://electrek.co/2018/06/03/tesla-energy-storage-projects-puerto-rico-elon-musk/

                3. I seem to recall them doing something like that in South Australia and coming across a critical article or two about it.

                4. I found this article that isn’t critical, but points out how much better the Tesla Powerpack (corrected from my Powerwall reference in the above comment) batteries do at helping to balance their grid.

                   https://electrek.co/2018/05/11/tesla-giant-battery-australia-reduced-grid-service-cost/

                5. From your site:

                   “Disclosures

                   Some writers of Electrek maintain positions in $TSLA and other green energy stocks:…

                   We also use affiliate links when possible as an additional source of revenue for different products.”

                   In any case this sort of thing will run its course until it can’t. Personally, if it must, I’d rather some kinds of priorities be set, like health care facilities and whatnot, rather than frittering away the resources on relatively useless stuff like we are doing with fossil fuels and so forth.

          2. Longtimber, please explain what you mean by toxic eChem power. Not sure what your use of the term toxic entails.

             1. Some heavy metals / Neurotoxins in all Lithium Batteries except LiFeP04 or LFP. No recycling yet for Li Batteries in North America. Even used Pb can not be really recycled into a NEW Storage Battery. We are Installing the LG RESUH 10kW units. If you take the install price and divide by Lifetime kWh you get .40 cents kWh additional cost. Goldman revised costs for a Powerwall was similar. So the trick is to design autonomous systems to route Pure PV kWh’s around the Battery as much as possible. This is possible with Lithium since they thrive in partial charge environments that would trash a Pb battery in weeks. It’s all about the Loads aka DSM.

                1. No recycling yet for Li Batteries in North America.

                   Hey, sounds like a business opportunity…
                   And there are plenty of people working on it.

                   Less than 3% of lithium-ion batteries around the world are recycled, Chen said. The batteries from used smartphones and laptops often end up in landfills or tucked away in drawers and closets.

                   http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-lithium-ion-battery-recycling-20180316-story.html

                   Linked paper:
                   http://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2018/gc/c7gc02831h#!divAbstract

                   Effective regeneration of LiCoO2 from spent lithium-ion batteries: a direct approach towards high-performance active particles
                   Yang Shi,a Gen Chenb and Zheng Chen*ac

                   Abstract

                   With the growing applications of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) in many areas, their recycling becomes a necessary task. Although great effort has been made in LIB recycling, there remains an urgent need for green and energy-efficient approaches. Here we report a non-destructive approach to regenerate cathode materials by hydrothermal treatment of cycled electrode particles followed by short annealing. Unlike the conventional chemical leaching or solid-state synthesis approach, which either requires complicated steps of leaching, precipitation and waste treatment or relies on the chemical analysis of the Li/Co ratio from cell to cell, our non-destructive approach is much simpler and more environmentally friendly, and can easily process batteries with different capacity degradation conditions. In addition, the regenerated LiCoO2 particles can retain their original morphology and structure, and provide high specific capacity and cycling stability. Importantly, they show much better rate capability than particles regenerated through the solid-state synthesis approach. Our work demonstrates a greener, simpler and more energy-efficient strategy to recycle and regenerate faded LiCoO2 cathode materials with high electrochemical performance. This approach can be widely used to recycle and regenerate LiCoO2 cathodes on a large scale, and can be potentially applied to other types of cathode materials in LIBs and mixed cathode chemistry.

                2. First of all, having had a long career in chemistry, there is a big difference between toxins that are contained and those that are not. Being afraid of toxins that can’t effect one is paranoid.
                   There are large amounts of neurotoxins, toxins and corrosive chemicals all around us and yet being contained and properly used they present little danger. No American should complain about neurotoxins since they put up with their food and soil being sprayed with them in vast quantities.
                   We live in a chemical world. Knowledge, containment and proper practices work. Otherwise I would be long dead.

                   The Powerwall is way overpriced, needs some competition to bring the price down to sanity level.

                3. Don’t kid yourself, Currently in NA, Lead, Colbolt etc resting place is in the ground, air and water table. I have professional experience with recycling industry practices. There is no RoHS or programs like Germany has where the manufacturer is responsible for product cradle to grave. Violence, Poverty, Gang activity are blamed on trace amounts of Pb from childhood. Millions of cars are shredded with the only restriction is the gas tank is removed. Lead was recently blamed for Trump’s election (Not Funny) ! While Lithium “Oxide” type Batteries are magnitudes lower toxic than Pb type, they still contain heavy metals. LFP Batteries have no such toxins. There’s a video of a manager of HiPower rototilling LFP prisms into his family garden after a whole village required relocation due to birth defects. The Last Battery quality Pb smelter in North America was closed in 2014.
                   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Restriction_of_Hazardous_Substances_Directive
                   It’s immoral to “store” PV energy in Batteries because of stupid design.

                4. With a zombie EPA and some states just being corrupt, I can see the law being broken but that does not change the truth and value of my statement. Scofflaws and other criminals are the major problem. Empty headed politicians and agency heads are the problem.
                   “We live in a chemical world. Knowledge, containment and proper practices work. Otherwise I would be long dead. ”

                   If you understood the chemical industry and how many toxic and hazardous chemicals are used in large quantity as will as transported through our countryside every day, I think you would understand what I mean.

                   Tell me why, if LFP is so superior, it is not being used at scale? Low energy density? Might be useful in residential/business power storage.

                   If LFP/C is superior it will find a lot of applications. Best not to eat or physically harm any battery and they need proper disposal/recycling. There are commercial outfits that handle that.

                5. LFP is more appropriate for stationary applications for many reasons. What matters is what’s being manufactured. China is switching from LFP to Li oxide for EV’s for 30% greater range. So oxide types NMC, NCA, etc have the edge for traction application. But I believe BYD busses are LFP since it’s more stable. An advantage in a 400 kWh Pak in the city.

                6. It’s immoral to “store” PV energy in Batteries because of stupid design.

                   So don’t do ‘Stupid Design’! Panasonic plans to eliminate cobalt in EV batteries. https://www.autoblog.com/2018/05/30/panasonic-tesla-cobalt-ev-batteries/

                   Oh, and I don’t know… Maybe start by not designing cities for cars instead of people, in the first place, eh?

                   There’s one hell of a lot of stupid design out there that needs to be addressed.
                   If I were dictator of the USA, I would prohibit all kinds of drive throughs such as banks and fast food joints. Hell, I would prohibit all individual privately owned vehicles in every downtown area.

                   In any case I’m far from convinced that PV batteries, even as currently configured, are any more immoral than most everything else we do as members of industrialized civilization’s societies. I guess we are all just going to burn in hell. Let’s keep emitting CO2 and see how hot we can make it.

                7. A choice between a small amount of contained cobalt and a lot of petroleum burning is easy. If things can be improved fine, that is how it is supposed to happen. Putting off taking care of a global emergency just because there might be some minor problems is not an option.
                   Calling EV’s and battery backup immoral when we in a world wrecking process is just a way to get attention.
                   Anyway, as I said before, our everyday chemical industry is a lot more toxic and people aren’t crying in their sleeves. They merely want laws to promote safe handling of those dangerous substances that make all the stuff we use.

                8. “Panasonic plans to eliminate cobalt in EV batteries,” Elon also- Likely will be forced to, no open markets for cobalt. Tesla’s 2170 cell M3 eChem is not confirmed, but there are rumors it’s not quite as “hot” as NCA – Lower empire wrecking neurotoxins. We have a long way to go. The 100+GWh global Li Battery production is dwarfed by a single large Oilfield. Global Li cell and Pak capacity in infancy. Possible that energy density may be reduced for a while efficiency makes up the difference? Software or reduced eChem performance?
                   https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116020_nissan-leaf-30-kwh-battery-decline-3-times-that-of-earlier-electric-cars-study
                   Many PV Suppliers are going in the wrong direction in system design. IMO you must be Battery Optional or at least Agnostic. Battery’s for stationery are starting suck less, but they still add huge unnecessary costs per kWh. DSM and Thermal storage can reduce storage many fold. A clunky Hot water tank has several times the capacity of a Powerwall. The Powerwall 1 never shipped in quantity. The PW II is not a Battery. Those are Paks in Puerto Rico – different product. Current IOU Utility Model is incompatible with our energy future.

       2. All local PV systems should be designed as off-grid first with grid as back up, not the other way around or as only grid feeders.

          Around here I get net metering at full retail value, so no complaints there. However, when I produce power, that probably only goes a few hundred feet to a neighbor, the power company gets that nickel per kWh distribution charge for using almost no length of grid wire, no substations etc. Pretty good for them, using my equipment to make them money. Also, any excess I produce I get paid only at the generation rate while they get the extra distribution nickel per kWh on that too. Win-win for them.

          1. “All local PV systems should be designed as off-grid first with grid as back up, not the other way around or as only grid feeders.”
             1+ Grid Only Feeders are 99+ % of PV “systems”. THEY ARE NOT SYSTEMS! It’s trivial to design Grid Tie PV System with battery optional / Battery Lite / AC output mode for direct power or to charge any Battery. Do you think humans controlled by governments are smarter than yeast? Well?

             1. Glad you agree with me.

17. Good News for Republicans, It’s Not 2006
    Amy Walter

    https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/good-news-republicans-its-not-2006

    For much of 2017 and early 2018, GOP consultants of a certain age would tell us that this election had the same look, feel and smell of 2006; the last time Republicans had a terrible midterm election. The President was unpopular, the Democrats were motivated and GOP members were retiring rather than opting to run for re-election in what was shaping up to be an awful, no good, terrible year.

    Today, however, there are plenty of signs that 2018 isn’t like 2006. For, one, Trump’s job approval rating in the Gallup survey is 45 percent, eight points higher than the dismal 37 percent where George W. Bush was sitting at this point in 2006.

    Gallup also found that satisfaction with the direction of the country at a 12-year high. A marked improvement from 2006.

    Much of the growth in satisfaction, not surprisingly, is coming from Republicans. But, independent voters are also more optimistic than they were earlier this year.

    The same is true with perceptions about the economy. I talk a lot about the politics of the economy with Jay Campbell, a Democratic pollster with Hart Research, who also does a lot of survey work for CNBC. When I asked him about rising optimism about the state of the economy he told me that it’s more a reflection of partisanship than anything else. “Republicans have made up their mind that the economy is great — because of Trump,” he wrote. “Democrats have made up their mind that it’s not that great — because of Trump.” To be sure, he noted, “the good economy is buoying the Republican Party right now … [b]ut I have not yet seen anything that would tell me that the economy is going to earn them all that many votes in November that they wouldn’t already be getting.”

    Still, that unified support among Republicans is critical. Trump, the unorthodox and unpredictable leader of their party, has stronger job approval rating among Republicans today than President George W. Bush, a longtime stalwart of the party, had at this point in June 2006 (87 percent to 81 percent).

    Data from the most recent Pew Research poll also found evidence of a more energized and unified GOP base than we saw back in 2006.

    1. Not surprised. The democratic party and leaders have not done a good at all coming up with clear policy plans that would be appealing to the middle voting 1/3rd.
       They are too busy opposing the republicans. That project leads to a loss of positive identity.

    2. I don’t always vote for Republicans, but I think I am going to this year. The economy is really good around here, for the first time in many many years, perhaps back to the 80’s. I also like what Trump is getting done, how he does it with real leadership, unlike what we have seen with so many previous presidents.

       Regards,
       Ralph
       Cass Tech ’64

       1. Yeah, a lot of people are giving Trump credit for the good economy, even though he has very little to do with it. A lot of people seem to like his endorsement of Congress’ tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, and his presentation of agressiveness as “strong leadership”.

          Oddly enough, voters don’t remember his saying he would protect their health care, Social Security and their Medicare. They seem to be fine with Congress’ proposals to hurt the safety net for low income folks.

          I’m afraid Fox News has effectively misinformed a lot of people.

          1. If the GDP is growing at 2.2 percent and inflation is at 2.1 percent, isn’t just running level?

             1. Inflation adjusted GDP is growing at roughly 2.5%, and inflation is about 2.5%. Nominal GDP adds them together, and that is about 5%.

                Employment is growing, which is what most people pay attention to. Of course, it was growing before Trump got into office, and he hasn’t goosed it’s rate of growth much. Worse, he goosed it at just the wrong time, at the top of the business cycle. Really, really stupid. It just means the Fed will raise interest rates faster, and we’ll get a crash/recession sooner.

                1. So you are saying that 2018 will add almost 1 trillion to the GDP in real dollars?

                   Job increases are just running near population growth rate.

                2. 2018 will add almost 1 trillion to the GDP in real dollars?

                   Economy is about $17T. 2.5%of that is about 400B. The 5% figure is nominal. Real GDP is roughly 2.5%.

                   Job growth is roughly 100% above population growth. Labor force is about 162M, .7% pop growth would be about 115k growth in jobs per month, but it’s about 200k.

                   https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/06/business/economy/jobs-report.html

                3. I see now what the problem is, the number of workers to population ratio has fallen by 5% since 2000. Not much sign of recovery either. Indicative of jobs not keeping up with population rise.

       2. I also like what Trump is getting done, how he does it with real leadership, unlike what we have seen with so many previous presidents.

          Yeah, so did the Germans with Adolph Hitler!

          https://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/nazi-germany/nazi-germany-and-the-economic-miracle/

          Nazi Germany and the Economic Miracle
          Citation: C N Trueman “Nazi Germany And The Economic Miracle”
          historylearningsite.co.uk. The History Learning Site, 9 Mar 2015. 23 Jun 2018.

          Between February 1933 and the start of World War Two, Nazi Germany underwent an ‘economic miracle’ – or so the leaders of Nazi Germany wanted their people to believe. Not only was the idea of an economic miracle sold to the people of Germany, the propaganda element also wanted the idea sold to Europe and to the wider world. But was there really an economic miracle in Nazi Germany or was it merely a card trick – one that appeared to happen but really did not?

          Using the most basic of statistics, Nazi Germany certainly underwent major economic change. Like most other countries in Europe, Weimar Germany had suffered from a very high unemployment record and Nazi Germany inherited this. By the time World War Two started the unemployment rate in Germany had tumbled: trade unions had been tamed, the work force had seemingly developed a positive work ethic and job prospects were better – on paper at least.

          1. Hitler was obviously smarter than Trump—
             I don’t know how much that takes away from the analogy—–

             1. Look at who he and the Repubs have to be smarter than.

                “The average American is an idiot and half of them are below average”
                G Carlin

                The ancient Greek word idiotes was a derogatory term for somebody who is entirely taken up with private concerns bearing little or no relation to those of society as a whole.

                But today, being an idiot in the classical sense of the word is actually becoming a respectable way to live. Choosing to not really grow up, and live like an idiotes, has become a recognized lifestyle option.
                

                https://www.insightswb.com/410-2/

          2. “Nazi Germany” a no better comparison for today

             1. The comparison to “Nazi Germany” is about how a population of ordinary citizens swallowed the propaganda, hook line and sinker, and ended up normalizing all the atrocities. That is exactly the slippery slope the USA is on today. Made worse by the general belief, that it could never happen here. Well guess what?! It is happening!
                MAGA?!
                .

                

                1. I knew two women who spent WWII inside Germany (one still alive, in her 90’s, one dead). It was a very complicated situation. Both very high cognitive.

18. Sens. Cruz, Paul, Lankford, and Inhofe Call for Investigation at the National Science Foundation

    https://www.cruz.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=3904

    U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Rand Paul (R-Ky.), James Lankford (R-Okla.), and Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) this week requested National Science Foundation (NSF) Inspector General Allison Lerner investigate the NSF’s grant-making process, relaying their concern that the NSF has “issued several grants which seek to influence political and social debate rather than conduct scientific research” in contradiction of federal law and the agency’s mission.

    Among the examples, the senators cited the NSF providing over four million dollars to a climate-change coalition to turn television meteorologists into climate change evangelists (with almost three million coming after initial research revealed a significant lack of consensus on climate change among meteorologists), as well as a grant to increase the engineering industry’s activism on social justice issues.

    “Research designed to sway individuals of a various group, be they meteorologists or engineers, to a politically contentious viewpoint is not science – it is propagandizing. Such efforts certainly fail to meet the standard of scientific research to which the NSF should be devoting federal taxpayer dollars,” the senators wrote.

    The senators went on to ask Inspector General Lerner to answer seven questions in her investigation to determine if proper quality controls are in place at NSF and to discover if the agency failed to abide by federal law while using the American people’s tax dollars to fund research.

    1. It’s been a long time coming, NSF and the EPA both.

       1. Yeah, if these scientists had their way, we’d be putting lightning rods on all our tall buildings and steeples to protect them from burning down, instead of relying on prayer.

          Oh wait…

19. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/611503/alphabet-in-talks-to-spin-out-its-molten-salt-storage-play/

    Sustainable Energy
    Alphabet is in talks to spin out its molten-salt storage play
    Bill Gates’s Breakthrough Energy Ventures is involved in the deal.

    Link to Robert Laughlin’s paper:
    http://www.w2agz.com/Library/Storage/rbl-storage-05feb16%20(2).pdf

20. 1977 — On-The-Job Experience?: Former Beloved & Respected Comrade Leader US Attorney General John Mitchell, Dick M Nixon’s law & order hard-liner & highest ranking US lawman, takes up a 19-month residence in an Alabama prison.

21. In America, it’s a sobering statistic, of 1,000 cars on the road, just 15 are plug-in electric models, or 0.15 percent — despite the overwhelming evidence electric cars are more sustainable and better for the environment than fossil-fueled vehicles, the United States of America is extremely slow to adopt them.

    Comparatively, 5 percent of all vehicles on the road in Norway are electrics. Norway’s new cars sales in 2017 were comprised of nearly 40 percent EVs. Even China, where sales numbers are difficult to obtain, show over 2 percent EV market share in 2017. The United States barely breaks one percent of the market share as plug-in models.

    Meanwhile, in my neck of the woods, F-150s have followed the dodo down the road to extinction. Because, now it’s F-250s for wimps and F-350s (or F-450s) for real men — and gals with their cute cowboy hats and four-horse trailers.

    Now, I await the usual but-but exponential growth rebuttals. Yes, exponential growth from 1.5 percent. Really now? Maybe it’s time to revisit stats-101?

    https://www.cbtnews.com/us-trailing-ev-sales/

    1. I await the usual but-but exponential growth rebuttals.

       Yes, you should. And, don’t forget the hybrids, which are also electric.

       The bottom line is that this is a choice. EVs (in all their various forms, like pure, extended, hybrid and even H2) could be ramped up very quickly if we chose to, as a society.

       The forces of resistance, the Inhofes, Trumps, Kochs and Pruitts are fighting back. When will the tide turn? Things can stagnate, AND they can change very quickly when things crystallize. Don’t forget how much things have changed in the last 15 years: the current sales of hybrids and EVs were unimaginable 15 years ago. It would be better if things were changing faster, but…they are changing.

       We, as a society, are not limited by geology or physics in this situation. It’s up to us.

       1. You forgot to mention that there are 1,793 natural gas-powered electricity plants in the US. They generated 34 percent of the nation’s electricity last year and there are 400 coal-powered electric plants in the US that generated 30 percent of the nation’s electricity last year. Of course, there are 1,721 solar-powered electric plants in the US. They generated a whooping one percent of the nation’s electricity last year.

          Over 99% of the electricity production in mainland Norway is from hydropower plants. The US, by comparison, is a renewable energy backwater (pun intended).

          1. Over 99% of the electricity production in mainland Norway is from hydropower plants.

             You have to admit that that is at least partly a result of a fortuitous combination of geography and natural features.

             Brazil for example, flooded their country (pun intended) with massive hydroelectric projects that ended up being ecological disasters and even worse the victims of climate change induced droughts.

             1. “You have to admit that that is at least partly a result of a fortuitous combination of geography and natural features.”

                Of course I admit that Fred, Norway is a uniquely fortunate country. I just get sick of listening to the pathetic EV mantra. Hydro, especially mega-hydro is an fucking disaster (in general). For example, we are currently building yet another dam on the Peace River (Site C) that will drown one of the most beautiful and agriculturally productive valleys in Western Canada all to produce mostly unneeded power that will likely wind up being sold to you “Yanks”. The environment be damned (pun intended).

                1. I’m baffled that you don’t like EVs. They reduce oil consumption, which would justify them regardless of what powered them.

                   And, they help wind and solar grow: EVs can charge when wind and solar are strongest, and raise the prices that wind and solar power receive. If you like wind and solar, you should really like EVs.

                2. “I’m baffled that you don’t like EVs.”

                   I don’t dislike EVs but I don’t see them as a panacea.

                3. Hmmm. I’m not sure what you mean.

                   EVs are a tool, and of course they won’t help if we don’t use them.

                   But…they can certainly eliminate almost all oil from transportation; they can provide very low CO2 transportation if they’re powered by low CO2 sources; and they can make it much easier to build wind and solar, by providing demand when needed and storage.

                   So…they won’t provide world peace, but they might prevent an oil war or two. They won’t cure cancer, but they might reduce pollution-related cancers a bit. They won’t reduce your daily work at the office, but they might help you get a bit more sleep, by reducing road noise outside your house.

                   Not too shabby.

                4. Doug, you just don’t have any vision. EV’s are a given.

                   Captain Kirk’s communicator and Spock’s Tri-corder was panacea too, right ?

                5. Captain Kirk’s communicator

                   He used a flip phone. He’s out of date…

                6. Hydro, especially mega-hydro is an fucking disaster (in general).

                   On that point at least, we certainly agree!

                   In my view mega-hydro is just as much of an ecological disaster as are the mining of the tar sands. I believe us ‘Yanks’ are also the supposed beneficiaries of a large portion of the energy thus derived, IMHO probably that is just as unnecessary and even more damaging to global ecosystems due to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels!

                   If we Yanks decide to push towards transitioning to more renewables and non ICE vehicles for our transportation we might not even need any of it! Thus causing increased direct financial pain, for at the very least, a tiny minority of your citizens.

                   However should we ‘Yanks’ continue with our oil addiction we will probably be causing immeasurable hardship for vast numbers of climate change refugees, in places like the Northern Triangle of Central America, who are now being called criminals by Trump et al., while trying to seek asylum for themselves and their children in the US.

                   So from where I sit, it seems that we are all damned if we do and damned if we don’t (all puns intended)

                7. Of course the sensible action would be reducing reliance on electrical energy and fossil fuel energies. But I would much prefer devoting land to hydro compared to devoting farm land to ethanol and biodiesel production.

          2. Doug, the US produces 4,015 billion kWh, Norway produces at most 150 billion kWh. That is 27 times the amount of power.
             Of that 4,015 billion kWh, 687 billion kWh is from renewable energy and 300 billion of that is from hydropower. US produces more than four Norway’s in renewable energy.
             So who’s the backwater in renewable power generation?
             Plus Norway uses electric power at twice the per capita rate of the US, what gives there?

             1. “Norway uses electric power at twice the per capita rate of the US, what gives there?”

                Assuming that’s true I have no idea. Of course the country is all mountains, half north of the Arctic circle. Canada is also hopelessly energy inefficient maybe because of the vast distances involved.

                “the US produces more than four Norway’s in renewable energy.” Is that a meaningful statistic when there are only 5 million people in Norway? Wouldn’t renewable energy per capita make more sense?

                1. Those are the actual numbers Doug.
                   As far as meaningful Doug, I don’t know, it depends upon what is aiming at. If Norway is trying to go green internally yet still producing lots of oil and natural gas to be burned elsewhere, what does that mean? Norway is headed to the Arctic for more drilling as the ice retreats. It’s been called the Norway paradox.
                   Comparable? Depend on how one compares things.

                   Take New Jersey in the US, densest populated state, yet about half it’s power is non-CO2 producing. It has a strong solar PV project (not much wind yet, guess they don’t want Trumps view to be ruined) 2000 GWh production per year headed to 4000 by 2029. It has a population larger than Norway by 60 percent and even though it’s highly industrialized used only 40 percent more electric power than Norway. I use NJ because it has a lot of well off people that use a lot of power and has a GDP larger than Norway. Still, not much hydro in NJ, much of it is flat or only hilly. Pennsylvania has more hills and a lot more wind power than NJ, but again not that much hydro. It has coal and natural gas, some oil. Each state here is the size of a Euro country, so maybe those would be better comparisons.

                   My point is that the US, for all it’s problems, has been a leader in PV and wind turbine technology and much of what we need to get off of fossil fuels. It’s no laggard in renewable energy yet it’s still addicted to FF. I know it’s the thing to bash the US lately but it has been instrumental in the renewable movement and maybe we will rise above the current situation here. It’s also got large portions of the population moving toward second world status. Sad, I know.

                   Even though China is the biggest polluter in the world, twice the US. If one uses the per capita comparison it doesn’t look too bad. But China is still partly in the third world while being in the second and first.
                   Same with India.

                   Comparisons are tough across populations, which is why I prefer actual numbers.
                   If we compare intentions and other social factors Norway rates high while the US has now sunk to middle.
                   Another fifty years and everything will be very different. What is now is not what will be at all. (waxing philosophical again, time to go outside).

                2. “It’s called the Norway paradox.”

                   Indeed, and all I can say is that every Norwegian I’ve spoken to is aware of it. As the president said recently: “We want to be a leader in climate change. But what we do is export the CO2.”

                3. While I was out, the genius of the Norway Paradox came to me. All nations should follow that model.
                   It would solve problems more quickly than the present system of agreements and slippage.

    2. EV’s? Where are the public charge points? $40,000 for a little car that can’t even take a pothole or steep driveway without scraping off it’s air dam. Sure EV’s are great, but they are mostly tied to the home charger. America is not ready yet over much of the country and has a long tradition of motoring as a lifestyle to overcome.
       Americans want a six passenger big SUV, electric or not, that handles everything. So make electric pickups and SUV’s that don’t cost $75,000 and a some will sell.

       Leaf Power Beggars
       Hey, you invited me, now where is the outlet so I can get back home? Yes, I have to stay at least 10 hours, unless you have a 220V outlet I can reach.

       ” Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing…after they have exhausted all other possibilities.”

       Now for a real Winston Churchill quote ” “What an extraordinary people the Americans are! Their hospitality is a revelation to me and they make you feel at home and at ease in a way that I have never before experienced.” To his brother he wrote: “This is a very great country my dear Jack. Not pretty or romantic but great and utilitarian. There seems to be no such thing as reverence or tradition. Everything is eminently practical and things are judged from a matter of fact standpoint.””

22. “Solar panels lose about 1 percent of their production every year. Take that to 50 percent and it’s 70 years. In Great Britain a panel will produce about $3000 worth of power in it’s lifetime. It costs about $300 for a panel. The panel only costs about $150 to produce. So how can $150 of materials, energy and manufacturing effort actually cost more than $3000. The panel produces 10 times it’s retail cost and close to 30 times it’s energy cost.
    How can this be an energy loser?
    Bogus studies…” ~ GoneFishing

    “Solar panels lose about 1 percent of their production every year. Take that to 50 percent and it’s 70 years…” ~ GoneFishing

    “After that start it is hard to take anything in the article seriously.

    If the person can’t be troubled to learn what causes failures…

    Perhaps you should refer them to this.

    Or after they say that was then this is now, this one.” ~ Thinkstoomuch

    “The proper way to answer Ferroni & Hopkirk would be another extended ERoEI for solar PV. It looks like pro-solar brigade are not competent enough to do that. As such I’ll take Ferroni & Hopkirk.” ~ mark4asp

    “Mark, well we have another extended ERoEI study by Prieto and Hall which gave 2.45 for Spain. Lets assume 15% capacity factor for sunny Spain compared with 9% for UK and adjust for insolation and cloud we get 1.47 for high N latitude. And that needs to be adjusted down further for the higher cost of mitigating for seasonal intermittency the farther N you go. So these two studies are not really materially different, especially when we are aiming for ERoEI > 5 and ideally >>10.” ~ Euan Mearns

    “check all the references herein

    Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 47 (2015) 133–141
    http://astro1.panet.utoledo.edu/~relling2/PDF/pubs/life_cycle_assesment_ellingson_apul_(2015)_ren_and_sustain._energy_revs.pdf

    Abstract:
    There is a fast growing interest in better understanding the energy performance of PV technologies as evidenced by a large number of recent studies published on this topic. The goal of this study was to do a systematic review and a meta-analysis of the embedded energy, energy payback time (EPBT), and energy return on energy invested (EROI) metrics for the crystalline Si and thin film PV technologies published in 2000–2013…” ~ sunnnv

    “Thanks for the paper. I’m going to write a review post on ERoEI and will certainly include data from that paper in it. On email list with Charlie, Dave and Nate the main message they are trying to convey is that you can only compare ERoEI if same methodology is used throughout. The paper you cite has a vast range of ‘audited’ values. Do any of them mean anything?

    Its not clear to me that any of them are ‘extended’ and include for example labour, system failure, mounting, inverter, maintenance and mitigation of intermittency which are all energy costs that need to be met somehow for SYSTEM operation. And I imagine that the energy return part is optimised and not real world.

    This post is specifically about high latitude solar that produces next to nothing for three months a year. At time of peak demand at 18:00 in winter it produces absolutely nothing at all and it produces most in the middle of a summers day when the energy is least required. This is the reason for my scepticism.

    From Graeme No3 up thread

    I did the same after working out the costings using 4 year old figures from my neighbour (whose system packed up in 9 years).” ~ Euan Mearns

    “Caelan, I have been presented with similar numbers on an email thread. I have taken $300 and compounded 5% per annum finance costs over 30 years and get $1235. Add cost of inverter, installation, inverter replacement and maintenance and I don’t see much difficulty in doubling that. And then add the additional costs for intermittency. This is why subsidies are needed. Consumers are being asked to pay the bill for 30 years electricity today. This is the same argument as my CO2 argument. 30 (or 25) years worth of CO2 is already up there.

    Of course its difficult to find a place for money that pays 5% these days and an argument can be made that is because we are living more and more in a low ERoEI environment. The net energy just isn’t there to create wealth and pay rent.

    And I think its important to get to the root of the ERoEI. And by that I mean i don’t think we know the answer for high latitudes. I’m unimpressed by those who simply state solar PV is great we must build it everywhere, especially if the ERoEI is close to unity.” ~ Euan Mearns

    “If understood correctly, sunnnv may be suggesting that Ferruccio Ferroni’s ‘apparent affiliation fragments’, etc., may cast some doubt to the findings of the paper-in-question, along with some ostensible errors contained within.” ~ Caelan MacIntyre

    “n.b. Ferruccio Ferroni is/was president of the NIPCC-SUISSE,
    a climate change denier group.
    His (apparent) Linked-in page (in German)
    https://ch.linkedin.com/in/ferruccio-ferroni-85480060
    has some fragment of ‘Head Division Safety bei Leibstadt Nuclear Power Plant’.

    Gee, wonder if he has any axe to grind???
    (in 2011, the Swiss authorities decided to phase out nuclear power).

    The hysteria over greenhouse gases used in the PV industry ignores:
    (a) they aren’t used as much anymore
    (b) they can be controlled via burn boxes/gas scrubbing systems.

    A few of the comments on Euan’s site are pretty good – there are definitely some errors in the paper.

    If you want real EROEI / Energy-payback-time data, go to people who have been studying this for decades: V Fthenakis or M de Wild-Scholten (and their colleagues).

    A review of PV ERoEIs:
    http://astro1.panet.utoledo.edu/~relling2/PDF/pubs/life_cycle_assesment_ellingson_apul_(2015)_ren_and_sustain._energy_revs.pdf

    The Preito/Hall Spanish PV study is a wrong on many counts:
    http://thingsidlikepeopletoknow.blogspot.com/2014/01/review-spains-photovoltaic-revolution.html” ~ sunnnv

    “Standard operating procedure for Green Trolls, if you don’t like the message then shoot the messenger. In this case its interesting information. You see it as evidence he may be biased. But to be head of safety at a nuclear power plant, I see it as evidence that he must be a very smart and careful guy. He’s probably able to analyse and understand wide boundary risks to society resulting from Swiss energy policy.

    And while I’d agree that there may be some errors in the paper, show me a paper where there isn’t. The first target for criticism on this thread was the energy return part of the equation, where after some quick checks, I found that the Ferroni number was not too wide of the mark. That leaves me in the frame of mind that there are solar advocates here who will say anything to support their advocacy. So who to believe? State side I have Nate Hagens and Dave Murphy, both who have PhDs in net energy analysis telling me to be cautious about all ERoEI numbers but at the same time Ferroni is probably not too wide of the mark. And Pedro is commenting here saying same thing. Set against others claiming ERoEI for solar is thirty or above.” ~ Euan Mearns

    “Again the same references and now, another famous one: Fthenakis, frequently cross-fertilizing themselves with circular references, therefore excluding fundamental works like the Prieto/Hall that is a clear sign of inaccuracy.
    We do not need reviews or meta-analysis anymore, we have now available the real world data including $5 trillion invested in so called renewable sources, the bankruptcies among thousands of Bp Siemens Bosh solar dept, LDK, Suntech, Solindra, Sunedison, Abengoa, Production facilities closed with wasted investments, the country economies like Italy and Spain in great trouble paying subsidies. The early huge emission of CO2 of massive deployment of unproven energy sources. You certainly misunderstood the point about greenhouse gas emissions of PV: Refine the silicon to obtain the solar grade, the special reactors consumes electrical energy, as building and maintaining production facilities or solar farms. All the needed energy is coming mainly from fossil fuels.” ~ Massimo Ippolito

23. EPA Research Grants Cancelled at Direction of Political Appointee

    http://columbiaclimatelaw.com/silencing-science-tracker/epa-research-grants-cancelled-at-direction-of-political-appointee/

    Well, we knew late stage capitalism wasn’t going to be fun—–

    1. One step forward, two steps back, swing your partner…. wait we have no partners!!!!!

       1. “Unpopular ideas can be silenced & inconvenient facts kept dark, without the need of any official ban …

          — George Orwell, Animal Farm

24. How Liberals and Conservatives Shop Differently
    Nailya Ordabayeva

    https://hbr.org/2018/06/how-liberals-and-conservatives-shop-differently

    People (of all political persuasions) have a fundamental desire to stand out from the crowd and to showcase their identity to others (Snyder and Fromkin 1980). From fast cars and expensive watches to unique clothes and the latest gadgets, consumers use products to signal that they are more affluent, powerful, creative, or hip than others. In turn, brands use market positioning and ad taglines to cue different identities that consumers may wish to adopt. While some products clearly cater to consumers’ desires to signal their superior qualities and positions to others (take Mercedes’s claim “A Class Ahead”), others speak to consumers’ desires to express their uniqueness from others (take Apple’s famous tagline “Think Different” or Vans’ slogan “Off The Wall”). In our work, we find that conservative and liberal ideologies lead consumers to systematically choose different strategies to distinguish themselves in the marketplace.

    In our research, conservatives tended to differentiate themselves through products that show that they are better than others – for example, by choosing products from high-status luxury brands. In contrast, liberals tended to differentiate themselves through products that show that they are unique from others – for example, by choosing products with unconventional designs or colors. These distinct preferences emerged across multiple studies in which U.S. participants (university students who completed surveys in the lab, adults who took surveys online, and members of a research panel) indicated their political ideology and made real or hypothetical choices between products.

    We hypothesized that these differences in product preferences might emerge because of different beliefs about social hierarchies. Conservatives tend to endorse social hierarchies as reflecting legitimate differences in people’s skills and work ethic. As a result, conservatives view products that signal superiority as legitimate reflections of their favorable individual qualities such as hard work and motivation. On the other hand, liberals tend to oppose hierarchical social structures, believing that everyone works hard and that some people attain high positions in society because of luck or connections. As a result, liberals try to break away from traditional hierarchical structures and to signal their unique identities in alternative, non-conventional ways.

    1. Shop?
       How smart are they:
       Americans with college degrees are to the left of the majority of Americans who lack a college degree. And a new study by the Pew Research Center shows that those who have attended graduate school are even farther to the left than those who have only an undergraduate degree.

       More Educated, More Liberal
       https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2016/04/27/study-finds-those-graduate-education-are-far-more-liberal-peers

       But, I guess our more conservative populace can shop in a different way.

       1. Yeah, but how wise are they? Probably the wiser they are the less they shop for superficial wants as opposed to actual needs.

          https://ideas.ted.com/in-search-of-a-scientific-definition-of-wisdom/

          Is it possible to define, measure and even increase how wise a person is? Psychiatrist Dilip Jeste is attempting to answer those questions.
          To assess our health, we weigh ourselves, measure our blood pressure, and check our cholesterol. But one scientist is trying to figure out the connection between our well-being and something much more difficult to quantify: wisdom. A team led by UC San Diego geriatric psychiatrist Dilip Jeste (TEDMED Talk: Seeking wisdom in graying matter) is seeking a scientific understanding of the trait — defining it, locating it in the brain, even measuring it. Their ultimate goal? To learn how a person can boost their wisdom, just as a patient might improve their cardiovascular health.

          I have a hunch that if Trump and his supporters were tested for wisdom they would have negative scores.

          1. Got me Fred—-
             I’m getting old, and younger generations are baffling and stupid by my reference points.
             But I could just be from a different time and place.
             I miss the animals and wildness of earlier times, and a world that didn’t have Nike Logos everywhere plastered on the clueless beings.

             1. I’m getting old, and younger generations are baffling and stupid by my reference points.

                Actually I hold the opposite view, I find many in the younger generations to be wiser and more aware of our predicaments than those who are in my own age bracket.

                Though I do agree with your second point.

                1. Millennials are actually pretty high cognitive (at least the ones working on the ranch– but from Berkeley and actors and models).
                   But it is still missing the picture.

25. Lets see, what happened on this date?
    1908 — US: Nazi sympathizer & Jew-hater Henry Ford sells his first model T. July 30, 1938 Hitler presents highest non-citizen award — “Grand Cross of the Supreme Order of the German Eagle” — to Henry Ford in Berlin. The US Senate, always the first to know, reports in 1974 on Ford Motor Co.’s aid to the Nazi war effort.

26. The latest PHOTOVOLTAICS REPORT from Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy
    Systems, ISE
     Photovoltaics is a fast growing market: The Compound Annual Growth
    Rate (CAGR) of PV installations was 24% between year 2010 to 2017.
     Concerning PV module production in 2017, China&Taiwan hold the lead
    with a share of 70%, followed by Rest of Asia-Pacific & Central Asia
    (ROAP/CA) with 14.8%. Europe contributed with a share of 3.1%
    (compared to 4% in 2016); USA/CAN contributed 3.7%.
     In 2017, Europe’s contribution to the total cumulative PV installations
    amounted to 28% (compared to 33% in 2016). In contrast, installations in
    China accounted for 32% (compared to 26% in 2016).

    https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf

    97.5 GW production in 2017.
    At 24% rate, 1300 GW annual production in twelve years.

27. Thought I’d start day off with the good news:

    NEW WORLD ATLAS OF DESERTIFICATION SHOWS UNPRECEDENTED PRESSURE ON PLANET’S RESOURCES

    The main findings show that population growth and changes in our consumption patterns put unprecedented pressure on the planet’s natural resources:

    • Over 75% of the Earth’s land area is already degraded, and over 90% could become degraded by 2050.
    • Globally, a total area half of the size of the European Union (4.18 million km²) is degraded annually, with Africa and Asia being the most affected.
    • The economic cost of soil degradation for the EU is estimated to be in the order of tens of billions of euros annually.
    • Land degradation and climate change are estimated to lead to a reduction of global crop yields by about 10% by 2050. Most of this will occur in India, China and sub-Saharan Africa, where land degradation could halve crop production.
    • As a consequence of accelerated deforestation it will become more difficult to mitigate the effects of climate change
    • By 2050, up to 700 million people are estimated to have been displaced due to issues linked to scarce land resources. The figure could reach up to 10 billion by the end of this century.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180621111958.htm

    1. But the Bad news:

       Global coffee supply is currently at risk, with shortages already starting to affect the world. A full half of the world’s area that’s deemed suitable for growing coffee will be lost by 2050 if climate change remains unchecked, according to a new report from The Climate Institute of Australia.

       1. Meanwhile, maybe not so good:

          WILDFIRES [NOW] SPEWING CO2 IN SIBERIA AND RUSSIA

          Following a winter with little snow and strong winds, areas in Russia that were forests just a few decades ago have succumbed to intense wildfires. And these out-of-control fires aren’t just bad news for locals, but for people all over the Earth: experts estimate that the Amur fire has released around 110 megatons of carbon dioxide. According to Greenpeace, “Each wildfire heats up the planet. At the scale we’re seeing in Amur, that’s a large amount of CO2, and a major setback in efforts to meet Paris Climate Agreement goals.”

          https://inhabitat.com/wildfires-in-siberia-are-emitting-enough-carbon-to-harm-the-entire-planet/

          1. While the drying out of large region and increasing weather chaos causes loss of much of the world’s food in the near future, the leveling of temperature between Arctic and Equator will probably cause enough weather chaos to destroy our infrastructure faster than we can rebuild.

             This is a quick and deadly honest appraisal of the state of the earth and the probable future.
             WeDontHaveTime
             https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypfa0RgUyIE

             A more detailed account of the WeDon’tHaveTime Conference starts here.
             https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYfgaoy7-A4
             Facts, statistics, climate effects and risks are presented and discussed. We strive to highlight the severity of the issue. We establish the connection between greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, between rising temperatures and abnormal weather phenomena, we also highlight the risks of reaching “tipping points” and discuss the potentially disastrous effects of failing to halt global warming.

    2. Many people don’t realize that desertification doesn’t just happen around the margins of deserts, and degradation is a better phrase to describe what happens in all ecosystems that we spend much time in.

       Soils get compacted with less water and air holding capacity, the organic matter content declines, the soil microbiomes become relative waste lands, the ability of the lands to absorb precipitation declines, the species mix of plants, animals and insects becomes impoverished.

       Sure, some spots can handle more trampling than others, but the result of clear-cutting, grazing, plowing, paving, scraping, burning, spraying, and dumping, is the massive degradation of vast portions of the fertile lands of the world.

       The least fertile (and productive) lands of the world havn’t been as degraded, although they have certainly been mined, grazed, clearcut, and hunted on massive scales.

       This ranks right up there with peak fossil energy as a problem with population overshoot, and it is the main driver behind the massive extinction event that we are witness to/cause of.

       Caelan, I hope your earthworm business is coming along.

28. Here’s something for the FF trolls to chew on this Sunday! It’s about a week and a half old but, I think they’ll like it (NOT!).

    India doubles down on renewables as coal left idle by cheaper solar

    “At a time when Berkshire Hathaway’s Nevada Power is setting new record low US$24/MWh solar tariffs in the US, India continues to see the benefits of record low renewable energy tariffs.

    In the last two months India has seen 2.5 gigawatts (GW) of wind tenders completed at record low US$36-37/MWh tariffs (zero indexation for 25 years, like Nevada above).

    On the back of this, the Indian Energy Minister R.K. Singh has lifted India’s renewable plan from 175 GW to a new mission of 227 GW by 2022.

    It is no co-incidence the largest import coal plant in India, Adani’s relatively modern 4.6GW Mundra facility, is idle, unable to compete. Our conclusion is clear – stranded asset risks rise every time new record low renewables tariffs are announced. …[snip]

    India is now the fastest growing major economy in the world, and its electricity market is the third largest behind China and America.

    As such, the fact that renewable energy is now clearly the lowest cost source of electricity in India and able to be deployed at such scale and speed is illustrative of the magnitude of technology and finance driven change pending for global electricity markets, and in turn for the internationally traded thermal coal market, Australia’s third largest source export earnings.

    That India is joining China and Europe as the world leaders on climate change is a telling indication of a changing world order, particularly as America turns isolationist.”

    1. Meanwhile,

       COAL INDIA SET TO BOOST SUPPLIES BY AT LEAST 15 MILLION TONNES ANNUALLY

       “Coal India is set to increase supplies by at least 15 million tonnes annually in the next few weeks, with three new rail projects linked to high-capacity mines almost complete, company executives said. The additional supply will be enough to fuel almost 4,000 MW of power plants through the year, which will rise as more coal is transported. The increased availability comes as demand for power rises with temperatures climbing in the summer.”

       Read more at:
       //economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/64267081.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

       1. And, three cheers for India:

          ADANI COAL MINE ‘DEVASTATING’ FOR AUSTRALIA’

          Indian energy giant Adani Group has said it will soon break ground on a project which is expected to become one of the largest coal mines in the world.

          https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/adani-coal-devastating-australia-171016090146385.html

          1. Well, I’ll give at least half a cheer for the this cheerful report on the wind industry in the UK…
             https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYr7aGf0-wA

             Followed by a whole bunch of boos for Kevin Anderson’s global climate reality check!
             https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C87jkcuEMh4

             Reality, it seems, really and truly sucks! We are, all of us, in denial of it.

          2. Yeah, coal is going to be stopped by peak demand, not by peak supply.

             Fortunately, peak demand appears to be here.

       2. That’s a hot one Doug. More heat, demands more power, which produces more heat ….>>>>>

          1. And here’s an interesting tidbit:

             The temperature at Cape Morris Jesup, the northernmost point of mainland Greenland (annual mean -18.8 C), tells a story. In the month of February, since 1981, it has been rare for hourly air temperatures to spike above freezing. In 1997 it happened once. In 2011 it happened five times, and in 2017 it happened seven times. This year, it happened 59 times. Does this bit of trivia make me a climate change troll?

             1. Must really be tough figuring out how to dress for the day up there.
                That is going to be more common with time.
                However, look at the temp anomalies over the permafrost. Wonder what that will release.

                

             2. Hmm… It does make for a rather interesting curve, wouldn’t ya say?
                😉
                .

                

                1. Yes, sometimes things can grow (or decay) exponentially, AT LEAST FOR AWHILE, so we have that foxy formula: y(t) = a × e^kt where y(t) = value at time “t”, where a = value at the start, where k = rate of growth (when >0) or decay (when <0) and where t = time. Of course, "e" is Euler's number.

                   I simply adore Euler's number and have since I was a kid, a strange kid perhaps! 🙂

                2. DougL,

                   No doubt abou…oops: Surely not! Nothing strange about that.

                3. Hey, at the very least I’ve never met a climate troll who even knew who Euler was 😉
                   And they rarely understand planar graphs or spherical trigonometry. Being that at one time I used to build dodecahedral and icosahedral aquariums, I might be even stranger than you…
                   Cheers!

                4. Esteemed FredM,

                   In high school I made dodecahedra and icosahedra by inscribing pentagons and equilateral triangles in circles on paper and then cutting the circles out and using the outer parts of the circles as flaps to glue together. So there.

                   Also a Klein bottle out of a bicycle inner tube, and a discontinuous-compression continuous-tension icosahedron out of the straight parts of coat hangers and plastic tubing. Ah those days of glory!

                   Time for more port

                5. Hey, I caught a big bass on a Hula Popper today.
                   That must count for something on survival?

                   https://roundvalleyfishing.com/2011/05/13/the-hula-popper-by-arbogast/

                6. Most Esteemed Synapsid,

                   In high school I made dodecahedra and icosahedra by inscribing pentagons and equilateral triangles in circles on paper and then cutting the circles out and using the outer parts of the circles as flaps to glue together. So there.

                   That’s nice! However, go ahead and do try and build yourself a glass icosahedron and for starters maybe do it with triangles with sides equal to 30.5 cm. (that’s close enough to 12 in.) I could tell you what the ideal thickness of the glass should be but I’ll let you figure it out for yourself. Hint, being that an icosahedron is a tensegrity the standard aquarium formulas will be overkill for an equivalent volume. Of course do use the highest grade of aquarium silicone available and have fun cutting the glass and getting your dihedral angles as accurate as possible while maintaining perfectly equilateral triangles, especially the tips, no chipping allowed… Good luck! 😉
                   But once you succeed and fill it with water and have assured yourself there are no leaks, I promise you, you will be in for quite a visual treat, much like an aquarium kaleidoscope. Once you’ve done that much go for a big one, make it salt water with live corals!
                   Cheers!

29. Oh Dear, more climate (alarmist) projections. When will they end?

    ARCTIC METHANE EMISSIONS ‘CERTAIN TO TRIGGER WARMING’

    “As climate change melts Arctic permafrost and releases large amounts of methane into the atmosphere, it is creating a feedback loop that is “certain to trigger additional warming.”

    Turetsky’s study, “A synthesis of methane emissions from 71 northern, temperate, and subtropical wetlands,” was published this week in the journal Global Change Biology.

    http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-methane-emissions-certain-to-trigger-warming-17374

    1. Oh Dear, more climate alarmist projections. When will they end?

       Well, if what occurred leading up to, during and after the PETM, is any guide then the next 6000 years or so will be will be rather tough going for climate alarmists and human civilization. That should be followed by a gradual cooling during a period of about 200,000 years, as CO2 levels drop back to pre-industrial levels again.

       https://www.palaeontologyonline.com/articles/2011/the-paleocene-eocene-thermal-maximum/

       Climate change during the PETM:

       Much of our information on past climates comes from the composition of sediments and the shells of marine organisms, which take up chemical substances from seawater as they grow. Because seawater chemistry is partly controlled by temperature, sediments and fossil shells retain a signature of the ambient temperatures under which they formed. Such signatures tell us that during the PETM, temperatures rose rapidly over approximately 6,000 years, and then gradually cooled to near-background levels over the next 150,000–200,000 years. Warming was not uniform across the globe: sea surface temperatures increased by ~6 °C at high latitudes and ~4 °C at low latitudes, and deep-water temperatures increased by ~8 °C at high latitudes and ~6 °C at low latitudes. On land, temperatures increased by ~5 °C in the middle latitudes and by ~3 °C near the equator. Evidence for changes in precipitation is mixed: some studies show a dryer climate during the peak warmth of the PETM, whereas others suggest that rainfall increased. This may demonstrate that the impact of warming on precipitation patterns was localized, with different regions showing a range of effects.

       Although we now have a good picture of how climate changed across the PETM, the origins of the greenhouse gases that apparently caused this event are less clear. The most likely explanation is the mass release of methane from sediments on the sea floor, where the gas was sequestered, as it is now, in a solid form as methane hydrate. Once in the atmosphere, methane would have quickly oxidized to carbon dioxide. Other possibilities are the decomposition of organic matter in terrestrial settings, or the release of methane and carbon dioxide from deeply buried rocks during volcanic events. Whatever the causal mechanism, approximately 2,000 gigatonnes of carbon are thought to have entered the atmosphere and oceans at the same time as the PETM. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide gradually returned to near-background levels over a similar timescale to global temperatures.
       .

       

       1. Considering the starting point for our lovely journey into the warm world to come, the available albedo change will be a larger factor than the anthropogenic CO2 radiative forcing. When one starts to add the methane/carbon dioxide from natural sources it can go quite large over time and maintain into the distant future.
          The total methane clathrate mass is several times what is needed to get gators up to the Arctic and Hippos in the Thames, so let’s hope that the 4C-7C increase is not enough to release the full load. Permafrost and shallow methane clathrate are enough to change the world permanently as far as our species is concerned.

          On the near term timescale, say the next 12 years, the major factor will be chaotic and extreme weather variability combined with larger warming effects in the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. It’s just going to be a mess, very distracting. The natural methane additions will be just becoming significant by the end of that period, to the point of becoming obvious.

          If the renewable transistion continues strong, the clearing of the atmosphere may start (has been darkening again) and add even more heat to the system. Just one more kick in the pants for the ecosystem.

    2. Oh Dear, more climate (alarmist) projections. When will they end?

       When you stop posting them?

       1. Somewhere out there, there is a village that is missing their idiotes, please return to them, you will be much happier there and so will we!
          .

          

       2. Oh, my. Another person who doesn’t get irony.

          Well…irony is a difficult form in writing. I’ve heard it said that Americans have a particularly difficult time appreciating it.

          1. I’ve heard it said that Americans have a particularly difficult time appreciating it.

             Well what did you expect?! It’s all Greek to us!

             1. LOL! talk about ironic…
                https://xkcd.com/2008/

                1. One of my favorite xkcd: Duty Calls:

                   

30. Fastest ever Pikes Peak car? An EV!

    https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/volkswagen-idr-electric-pikes-peak-record/

    1. ICE engines don’t work so well in lower O2 environments such as at the top of Pikes Peak. EVs don’t need O2…
       BTW way it was a VW and VW is betting really big on EVs.

       1. I was driving my hybrid in EV mode up a very steep hill, and realized there is no more ‘lugging the engine’ It can just creep along as slow or fast as you prefer, with no worry about rpm and gears.

          1. That is why locomotives have gensets instead of just straight diesel power.

       2. Betting the House – post DieselGate. Read somewhere Damlier has thousands of Diesel PKV’s aka cars it can’t legally sell in the EU.

    2. Race cars lead the way…

31. Someone might ask if declining mortality would eliminate the benefit of declining fertility. The answer is…kind’ve.

    Yes, if decreasing fertility is matched by declining mortality, then population growth will stay the same. It’s worth mentioning, just as an aside, that life will be much less painful, with lower mortality and fewer childbirths. This is a world that we’d want.

    But…that’s in the short run. In the long run, two things will happen. First, mothers will be more confident that their children will survive, and be willing to have fewer children. That’s pretty universal, and very important. Second, if the fertility rate reaches the replacement rate population growth will eventually end. Unless, of course, we eliminate death altogether…

    1. How long will it take (without catastrophic event) to achieve population of 2 billion?

       1. Right about the time the human race gets smart.

       2. I think Dennis has projected that.

          1. A point to my question is that changes in demographics, including factors such as fertility levels and life expectancy, will not get us to a sustainable human population before-
             1- we have a massive energy supply shortfall
             2- climate instability results in a massive grain shortage, and a migration tsunami
             3- shear numbers of human mouths, and tools, will further escalate the extinction event that is underway

             1. Yes, and every creditable global population forecast has a roughly 40% increase, from 6.9 billion in 2010 to about 9.6 billion in 2050 with the number of children younger than 15 projected to increase by 10% — a consequence of falling birth rates. India will increase by 400 million by 2050 but Africa’s population is expected to increase most and make up a greater share of the global population by 2050. The number of people 65 and older is projected to triple by mid-century, from 531 million in 2010 to 1.5 billion in 2050 putting enormous pressure on health care costs. That’s only 33 years in the future so estimates should be pretty solid.

             2. The forecasts for population are based on the assumption that little will go wrong in the next few decades. I guess our massive global effort to manage the multiple predicaments we are facing must be functional. Science, technology, politics and social change will prevail. Especially science and technology since there is a “profit” in implementing fixes rather than fixing ourselves.

                1. Meanwhile, current average population increase estimated at 83 million per year. Population of New York city is 8.2 million. So dividing 83 by 8.2 = 10 NYs/year = a lot of people. Will they all drive a EV?

                2. Well, they’ll only be 6 months old, so probably not…
                   🙂

                   Seriously, it’s a choice, at a societal level. We could choose to convert almost all transportation to electric. It’s up to us to overcome the Kochs of the world. EVs are better, cheaper (to own AND operate), etc…

                3. So mindlessly reductive, like an EV commercial.

                   And a particular agenda promo’ed as choice.

                4. The current ratio is 1 car to 7 people, so no they will not all drive an EV. EV’s are a cure for overuse of energy and petroleum burning. Just one notch in a long list of predicaments. Thirty year earlier and a lot more of them would have helped, but it was just amateur hobbyists back then experimenting. Now we have all the technology in place that is needed and it is going off like a wet firecracker because here in the US it is not that supported and dependent upon the will of the market. Not doing a lot better elsewhere, but then again it’s not designed to help mankind out of any predicament, just designed to take advantage of the current predicament and make money. That is the way the system is designed.

                   But then I guess you didn’t catch the sarcasm in my comment.

                   The primary reason we are continuing this way to madness is the economic model. That must be left behind. Continued growth is deadly. A steady state is the same thing a little later. We need to learn how to reduce our footprint and reduce our population and actually be helpful to this world, not just use it as a disposable resource and lab experiment.
                   What does a country do once it becomes successful and wealthy? It builds large monolithic structures in cities, builds larger military and starts to effect the nations in the rest of the world. These buildings may seem like a triumph of man and engineering, a badge of prosperity, but they may as well be tombstones.

                5. Gone fishing- explain to me how my thinking is wrong on this response to your note-
                   Its not the economic model that is wrong, it is human nature. Every single one of us wants plenty of food, shelter, tools, clothes and status (symbols) in our clan, leisure and travel, and collections of stuff. I could go on with the list, but it is this nature and our ability to control the environment enough to grow our population into the billions, that results in the growth we see in economies all around.

                   The only way we could meaningfully control growth is through authoritarian imposition of strict laws with slow growth or contraction in mind. Ex- China s experiment with one family one child eventually put the brakes on their population growth while it was being enforced.

                   Without that kind of method, I just don’t see humanity voluntarily pulling the plug on growth.

                   Either we run short on stuff like fuel or food, or
                   ‘nature’ swings a 2 x 4 at our head.

                   One way or another, growth like this doesn’t go on indefinitely.

                6. Human nature doesn’t require growth in consumption of “stuff”. That kind of growth has already stopped in developed countries.

                   Per capita sales of vehicles leveled off 40 years ago, in the US. So did oil consumption, steel production/consumption, washer dryer sales, home sales, etc., etc., etc. Developed countries don’t have a lot of kids – they have fewer than 2 kids per person.

                   Human nature doesn’t require growth in “stuff”. Humans do want things to be better quality: better health, better TVs, better phones, better cars. But, the TVs and phones can be smaller. So can the cars, unless you live in a country with a “chicken tax” (which incentivizes car companies to sell SUVs).

                7. “Human nature doesn’t require growth in consumption of ‘stuff’.

                   Per capita sales of vehicles leveled off 40 years ago, in the US. So did oil consumption, steel production/consumption, washer dryer sales, home sales, etc., etc., etc. Developed countries don’t have a lot of kids – they have fewer than 2 kids per person.

                   Human nature doesn’t require growth in ‘stuff’. Humans do want things to be better quality better health, better TVs, better phones, better cars. But, the TVs and phones can be smaller. So can the cars, unless you live in a country with a ‘chicken tax’.” ~ Nick G (verbatim)

                   For someone who wrote the stuff stuff twice, you sure do seem relatively-stuffed with it.
                   My quoting your comment in the pencil-thin margins seems kind of apt, what do you think?

                8. Hickory, I don’t think our future is in space or in more of the industrial complex that has led us to this multiple set of dangerous predicaments. I think that in general that societies based on biology, genetics and ecology are the only ones that can or will survive long term.
                   All the things we think we need now, the steel, the TV’s, the minerals and fuels, will be fairly worthless and avoided in that type of society.
                   Sorry to pull the rug out from under the Trekkies but we are not ready to handle extreme physical power yet, as we are proving every day. For us that road is a dead end, maybe a long time from now, but not now.

       3. Well, over our 200,000 year history (ok, maybe 300,000 if the data in Morocco is correct) our population has gone from 1-10 million.
          Anyone awake here?

       4. Never, there will not be the incentive to change until such an event … then it will be too late and 2 million is more likely.

          NAOM

32. Hi gang. My internet is still down. I am using the Lake Chapala Society’s wifi right now. It is free to members.
    Jeffrey Brown Posted this to me Friday. It seems that sensible Republicans are leaving the party. Yes there are a few smart Republicans out there. And they are all doing the smart thing and dumping the party of Trump. All the idiots are still sticking with him however.
    ______________________________
    My letter to the editor of the Fort Worth Star Telegram (150 word limit, I don’t know if it will be published)
    Inbox
    x

    Jeffrey J. Brown
    Jun 23, 2018, 12:27 PM
    to westexas

    Steve Schmidt, who ran John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, has resigned from the Republican Party, and registered as an independent.

    Schmidt, on his decision to leave: “This Independent voter will be aligned with the only party left in America that stands for what is right and decent and remains fidelitous to our Republic, objective truth, the rule of law and our Allies. That party is the Democratic Party.”

    Conservative columnist George Will has similarly resigned from the Republican Party and urged voters to vote Democratic in the 2018 mid-term elections.

    Of course, these two will be instantly branded by Trump supporters as “RINO’s,” or Republicans In Name Only. I would submit that the true RINO’s are those who refuse to repudiate someone whom Schmidt accurately characterizes as a lawless, vile, corrupt, mean and cruel president, and I agree with his strong recommendation to vote Democratic in November.

    1. As a 90%+ democratic voter, I sure wish the democratic party or leaders could refresh the brand/platform in a way that ignores republican positions. It seems like the vast majority of the efforts are aimed at being in opposition to republicans, rather than having their own vision and plans for a successful governance for this time and place.
       Winning the middle will be marginal without an economic message that people can trust.

    2. Telmex quote 7 working days for a fix but 10 days and up is more likely. Try sitting on the branch manager’s desk. Be a pain in the arse in the shop. Do you have Cablevision or Izzi around there? A switch of providers may be quicker or the threat may help.

       NAOM

    3. Check out using your cell phone as a wifi internet hotspot…

33. Nasdaq
    7,541.83
    -150.98

    Kinda of a big hit— Vix is up– maybe the market is waking up to Trump?
    (He is a former game show host who has been bankrupt 4 times, after daddy gave him 100 million)

    VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX ST ETN (TVIX)
    NasdaqGM – NasdaqGM Real Time Price. Currency in USD

    55.13+11.86 (+27.41%)
    As of 11:28AM EDT. Market open.

34. Repost of this Article (Time limited Link) since this type of development is key to the DG Revolution.
    If “ensemble” actually works as promised, Basic Grid Tie PV will finally have a capability for real Utility that IOU’s have successfully barred from customer ownership … however mass production not until mid 2019, to 2020 and a lot will happen in that time-frame. Unconfirmed that the current shipping IQ7 micros will upgrade as needed to power up when needed, but we will know soon. The Tesla AC Powerwall II currently has no Utility with most PV systems for Autonomous operation. Solar City on LifeSupport and may have no choice but to return to Enphase unless they come up with a workable solution.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4181463-enphase-energy-ensemble-gold-standard

35. The Best Solution For Climate Change

    If our longer-term goal is to reduce the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (which produces climate change) — there are only four ways to do it. 1) Reduce or eliminate the use of fossil fuels. 2) Continue using fossil fuels but remove CO2 during or after the combustion process and store it as we would a toxic substance. 3) Plant vegetation that absorbs the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. 4) Take it out of the atmosphere and either put it somewhere or make use of it.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Best-Solution-For-Climate-Change.html

    1. People tend to take a ‘pick one of these’ as the answer, especially those who say it will never work. Reality is that it will be a combination of all of these.

       NAOM

    2. ‘3) Plant vegetation that absorbs the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. ‘
       this method is already running at close to full steam. if you removed all the concrete and let plants re-establish, and perhaps stopped harvest on the major farmland of the world, you could ramp up this form of CO2 sequestration somewhat. I don’t see us getting started on that.
       Basically, plants are already growing on most places that they can (if we would just leave them be). Most methods we could employ to ‘juice’ photosynthesis around the world involves using fossil fuels- irrigation, fertilization, etc.

    3. Options 3 and 4 are the only good ones. We can clean up the pollution, keeping the air clear and the water pure, but also letting businesses prosper in ways people before us could never imagine. Trying to stop climate change with straight on methods is wrong, because it just leads to money and power sent directly into a UN approved wormhole.

36. Renewable EROI must include storage, low capacity factor, wide boundaries

    Trainer argues that when you consider how the capacity factor of wind and solar are to fossil plants, seasonality of wind and solar the number of facilities is quite large to deal with the intermittency problem. Therefore the storage (hydropower, batteries, biomass, etc) must be included in the EROI calculation, the renewable system can’t operate without them. Plus the capacity factors of wind and solar are getting lower, because the best sites have already been built on, so the future capacity factor will be less, not equal or more than today’s. The lifetime of 25-30 years is questionable, plus the erosion of their performance over time usually isn’t included (i.e. dust impairing solar panels). Trainer makes a case that boundaries need to be as wide as possible, including the EROI of the workers, transmission, and so on. Prieto, Hall and others have pointed this out too. In summary, Trainer makes a good argument that the EROI values for wind and solar are far lower than commonly assumed, and that what would be more effective is reduction in demand, De-growth. He writes that ‘a core claim of The Simpler Way project (2017) is that a sustainable and just society based on 100% renewable energy supply is desirable and could be easily achieved, but only if there is a radical transition to new settlement patterns, economies, political systems, and most difficult of all, new values and non-affluent conceptions of the good life’.”

37. Just an update on my small palette cabin, which was mentioned hereon…
    I have switched attention from that to a modified vardo (‘Gypsy/Romani’ wagon) design where its 3D model is being reverse-designed (just redoing the objects transcribed from one file format to another, and then from there, modifying the design). I think it might be the smallest thing on land that one can live in and still be relatively comfortable, and it’s also a tried-and-true design, apparently transcending a few cultures and styles/forms. Coincidentally, it may fit a larger pickup-truck flatbed without its wheels (and maybe some other components underneath), which may prove handy. Apparently the model was done by someone with a Romani background. Image below.

    While I’m at it, with regard to my also-mentioned fermentation foray, I’ve used many different kinds of juices since, including cranberry, grape, apple and cherry, to make delicious ciders. Grape juice to a cider is surprisingly effective.
    I’d like to try pineapple juice too, and am waiting for later in the season when I can obtain and use wild yeasts instead of commercial for possibly better, more complex flavors.
    I’m also going to try a honey mead soon and, given the longer process, maybe it will be in time for New Years Eve.

    

    1. I think it might be the smallest thing on land that one can live in and still be relatively comfortable,

       Maybe not. This can be used on land or water and is movable by a one person.
       http://n55.dk/MANUALS/SNAIL_SHELL_SYSTEM/SSS.html

       1. I’m actually aware of that design, but it’s a fair illustration nonetheless.
          The quibbles with it might include issues surrounding ventilation, heating, insulation and condensation (the vardo looks insulatable and is heatable and its canvas roof can be made to come off for aeration, light and views), and that its design compared with the vardo may be less amenable to, say, home-/self-building; towing (and while still being within it) with a bike, e-bike, motorbike or the classic horse; repairing and using local knowledge or materials (it’s made of polyethylene); and the design is explicitly for one person, whereas the vardo may be able to accommodate ~2, maybe with a small child added. Again, the vardo is a tried-and-true design. Frankly, it might be a brillant design.

          If I design away the wheels and the drivetrain underneath, and get the dimensions right, again, it should be possible to slide the vardo onto the flatbed of a pickup truck. Apparently the beds can be 8 feet deep, which seems about right for the vardo with a 6 feet main section and a 2 feet toilet-shower section. Aside from pickup truck flatbed dimensions, I’ve also been looking at ways to get water to the vardo for a shower and in the winter as well. Tricky, but it looks feasible. Once the vardo is in place, it could be more or less a permanent structure.

38. Well, if this isn’t ironic I don’t know what is:

    CO₂ SHORTAGE: COCA-COLA PAUSES PRODUCTION AT SOME PLANTS

    “Carbon dioxide is used in guns for killing farm animals and providing the fizz in carbonated drinks. CO₂ is also used in certain medical procedures. Last week, leaders of the UK’s food and drinks industry warned the crisis was so serious it could harm production and asked the government to prepare to prioritize supplies.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44606777

39. Publish and don’t be damned
    Some science journals that claim to peer review papers do not do so

    https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2018/06/23/some-science-journals-that-claim-to-peer-review-papers-do-not-do-so

    WHETHER to get a promotion or merely a foot in the door, academics have long known that they must publish papers, typically the more the better. Tallying scholarly publications to evaluate their authors has been common since the invention of scientific journals in the 17th century. So, too, has the practice of journal editors asking independent, usually anonymous, experts to scrutinise manuscripts and reject those deemed flawed—a quality-control process now known as peer review. Of late, however, this habit of according importance to papers labelled as “peer reviewed” has become something of a gamble. A rising number of journals that claim to review submissions in this way do not bother to do so. Not coincidentally, this seems to be leading some academics to inflate their publication lists with papers that might not pass such scrutiny.

    Experts debate how many journals falsely claim to engage in peer review. Cabells, an analytics firm in Texas, has compiled a blacklist of those which it believes are guilty. According to Kathleen Berryman, who is in charge of this list, the firm employs 65 criteria to determine whether a journal should go on it—though she is reluctant to go into details. Cabells’ list now totals around 8,700 journals, up from a bit over 4,000 a year ago. Another list, which grew to around 12,000 journals, was compiled until recently by Jeffrey Beall, a librarian at the University of Colorado. Using Mr Beall’s list, Bo-Christer Björk, an information scientist at the Hanken School of Economics, in Helsinki, estimates that the number of articles published in questionable journals has ballooned from about 53,000 a year in 2010 to more than 400,000 today. He estimates that 6% of academic papers by researchers in America appear in such journals.

    1. Those are the ones the climate change deniers go for; in fact seeing a climate change denial article is probably the easiest way to spot that there has been no peer review process.

       1. In the same way, spotting a climate change denial article is probably the easiest way to spot an author who’s judgment is unreliable in energy matters (and very likely others as well).

40. BARENTS SEA SEEMS TO HAVE CROSSED A CLIMATE TIPPING POINT

    “From a strictly human-centric position, the changes aren’t necessarily a terrible thing. In terms of ecosystems, the authors describe the Barents as “divided into two regions with distinct climate regimes—the north having a cold and harsh Arctic climate and ice-associated ecosystem, while the south has a favorable Atlantic climate with a rich ecosystem and lucrative fisheries.” The expansion of these fisheries, while coming at the cost of the native ecosystem, could prove a boon for the countries bordering the region. But the general gist of the study is considerably more ominous: not only have we discovered a climate tipping point, but we’ve spotted it after the system has probably already flipped into a new regime. It also provides some sense of what to expect from the future. Rather than seeing the entire planet experience a few dramatic changes, we’re likely to see lots of regional tipping points that have more of a local effect. The future will be the sum of these events and their interactions, making it a bit harder to predict which changes we should be planning for.”

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/06/barents-sea-seems-to-have-crossed-a-climate-tipping-point/

41. Time to Short ENPH, SEDG,TSLA. ?? Another Salvo in the Energy War.
    Can Carbon Energy and The Edison Institute successfully WRECK Distributed / Future Energy cos Financing, Regulatory approvals, and Affordable supply chain? They have been successful on many fronts. Mandating Utility only Grid Tie PV, Rapid Shutdown PV, DUK buying REC Solar, NEE locking down 120% of Jinko’s Jacksonville, FL. Production, etc.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4183976-enphase-new-solar-model-pay-customers-buy-products#alt2?source=email_rt_article_readmore&app=1
    Time to Stop eBike revolution with F150’s.
    https://electrek.co/2018/06/21/trump-plans-electric-bicycles-tariff/

    1. So who is the competition keeping the price of inverters down?

       1. String inverters ~ .10 USD/watt Retail. ENPH target to match as per investor presentation and get size to match iphone.
          No duties on Inverters … yet, Somewhat crowded market. Current “Grid Tie” Inverters are N O T really inverters, They are forward in time wave riders, forbidden from ever producing any voltage by Utility Standards. Actually, design to destabilize the grid by forcing freq off spec.
          ** ABSOLUTE ZERO UTILITY without a Utility meter and mega fossils **
          Welcome to government mandated energy slavery. This is the big deal on what ENPH design to break free from with the IQ8. Market redefined ie. PV 2.0 if successful. Utility freedom for everything! The horrors of the end of Powerlines. Think Smart Phone and Code-A-Phone. Likely only Foxcom or Flextronics could make these in the volumes/price point required. Hundreds of Millions/year?

42. If you are interested in reviewing an interactive map of flooding risk in the USA, here is mapping of that-
    https://ucsusa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=cf07ebe0a4c9439ab2e7e346656cb239

43. More teething problems, full loss of propulsion in Chevy Bolts with no warning.

    So, if you own a 2017 Bolt (2018s are apparently not affected by this), then you’ll be asked/required to bring your car in for a software update free of charge. This update won’t fix faulty cells (software can’t work miracles), but it will provide you with an advanced warning if a cell is failing and that should allow you time to remove your vehicle from the roadway prior to complete power loss.

    https://insideevs.com/chevy-bolt-battery-cell-failure/

44. For astronomy buffs:

    PHYSICISTS HAVE SET LIMITS ON SIZE OF NEUTRON STARS

    How large is a neutron star? Previous estimates varied from eight to sixteen kilometres. Astrophysicists at the Goethe University and the FIAS have now succeeded in determining the size of neutron stars to within 1.5 kilometres: between 12 and 13.5 kilometres, a result that can be further refined by future gravitational wave detections.

    However, there is a twist to all this, as neutron stars can have twin solutions. It is possible that at ultra-high densities, matter changes its properties and undergoes a phase transition similar to what happens to water when it freezes and transitions from a liquid to a solid state. In the case of neutron stars, this transition is speculated to turn ordinary matter into “quark matter,” producing stars that will have the exact same mass as their neutron star “twin,” but that will be much smaller and consequently more compact. Future gravitational-wave observations will reveal whether or not neutron stars have exotic twins.

    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-06/guf-fps062618.php

45. DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE IS LIKELY, CONCLUDES NEW RESEARCH

    A new study has revealed sensitive regions of the world are still at risk from the dangerous and potentially irreversible effects of climate change even if we meet the target of not increasing global temperature above 1.5°C over the next 100 years. The regional uncertainties associated with the Paris Agreement have not been explored before. This is because, until now, researchers have used either very simple models or models that were too complex to investigate the range of possibilities.

    “Our models show that it is possible to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement, but only if governments take decisive and urgent action through strengthening climate change policies to encourage rapid divestment from fossil fuels.”

    Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-06-dangerous-climate.html#jCp

    1. Hey wait, I thought the Paris Agreement fell way short of what was needed. Now the Three Bears Statisticians say it’s all going to be fine if we just encourage not burning FF.
       I feel sick.

       1. Does it matter? We seem to keep burning more oil, gas and coal anyway.

          1. What you mean we kemosabe? I burn less and less each year.

             Does it matter? I think you mean do I think things will change? I trust in Nature to change everything. I guess you thought it mattered. I am quite skeptical.

             Luckily we have not figured out how to mess with the sun itself yet.

             Latest interesting geology news.
             Mass of Warm Rock Rising Beneath New England, Rutgers Study Suggests

             Slowly but steadily, an enormous mass of warm rock is rising beneath part of New England, although a major volcanic eruption isn’t likely for millions of years, a Rutgers University-led study suggests. The research is groundbreaking in its scope and challenges textbook concepts of geology.

             “The upwelling we detected is like a hot air balloon, and we infer that something is rising up through the deeper part of our planet under New England,” said lead author Vadim Levin, a geophysicist and professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Rutgers University–New Brunswick. “It is not Yellowstone (National Park)-like, but it’s a distant relative in the sense that something relatively small – no more than a couple hundred miles across – is happening.”

             https://news.rutgers.edu/research-news/mass-warm-rock-rising-beneath-new-england-rutgers-study-suggests/20171121#.WzJ8LdJKjoz

             Wonder if the GRACE satellites could shed some light on this.

             1. Gone Fishing,

                The area this rock is rising beneath is itself igneous in origin–lots of Palaeozoic granite type intrusion exposed in the mountains there–and it will be a treat if there’s a second phase of activity of the same type. I don’t see how there can be a direct connection because plate motion over the past 400 million years means that the present location isn’t the same as when the earlier activity occurred.

                We’ll have to check back in some tens of millions of years.

                1. There has been a continental collision and breakup at this area in the past 400 million years. The Adirondack uplift of 20 million years ago remains unexplained.
                   Recently formed continental hotspot?

                2. Gone Fishing,

                   That’s one of the first things that comes to mind, alright.

                   It’ll take a while to find out, of course, and that leaves time for more port (I love these coincidences.)

       2. Now the Three Bears Statisticians say it’s all going to be fine if we just encourage not burning FF.

          To be fair, I have not read the paywalled paper in Nature. so can’t really comment on it but my reading this excerpt puts my skeptical meter far into the red zone!

          Professor Richard Wilkinson, from the University of Sheffield’s School of Mathematics and Statistics (SoMaS) and contributing author, said: “By accounting for climate-carbon cycle uncertainties we have been able to show that there is an approximate 50 per cent probability that we can limit peak post-industrial peak global warming to less than 1.6 degrees Celsius.

          “This has been made possible by using Gaussian process emulation to find plausible climate trajectories at a fraction of the computational cost.”

          This is your captain speaking: “We welcome you aboard CO2 flight 420 ppm. By using Gaussian process emulation, we have been able to ignore metal fatigue cracking feedback uncertainties in our turbine blades (which can explain 47% of turbine failures), to conclude that we have a reasonable chance of staying aloft throughout our entire flight. Please sit back, relax and enjoy your flight! BTW as a cost saving measure we no longer provide O2 masks and flotation devices under your seats. And this is a prerecorded message as neither I or your copilot were willing to fly this plane and your flight is 100% on autopilot…Good Luck!”

46. Not exactly news but………..

    PALM OIL ‘DECIMATING’ WILDLIFE

    Palm oil production has “decimated” animal and plant life in Malaysia and Indonesia and threatens pristine forests in central Africa and South America, a leading international conservation group warned Tuesday. Worldwide, palm oil plantations—three-quarters of them industrial-scale—cover 250,000 square kilometres, an area roughly the size of Italy or the US state of Arizona.

    Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-06-palm-oil-decimating-wildlife-solutions.html#jCp

    1. Isn’t that what happened everywhere that humans advanced their agriculture?
       As soon as steam power came along, the eastern forests of the US fell quickly, then gasoline engines kept it going even faster. Between land clearing for farming/development and the lumber industry not much old growth was left.
       Burning, cutting all through thousands of years of history. Still repeating itself but faster with machines. The one common factor is humans.

       World forest area is being lost so fast now that forests will be gone in 40 years. Or will things slow down before then?

       Ice sheets, droughts, fires, humans, bugs, large animals; the trees are always just sitting targets.

       1. Don’t be so negative. God will provide. Meanwhile, we’re doing our job — propagating. It’s a slog but we’re adding over 200,000 people to this planet every day, or over 140 every minute. He must be smiling.

          1. So my facts are negative now and only you can have your own facts? Sounds Republican to me. Is this like a virus or some alien brain worm that has invaded humans? Or is it just our past rearing it’s ugly head?
             https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2fYKBIvq-o

             God has provided. Just wait until he finds out what we did. We are in so much trouble.
             https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrahQpIWD08

             On the other hand, the trees seem to keep growing back no matter what hardships they face. Will we?
             Maybe they will evolve to kill us!!!!
             https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odQjUiuKhLg

             Of course none of this is to be taken seriously since it has not been peer reviewed. Or has it, plenty of people have peered at it. You decide. Or at least have a laugh (except maybe the tree part).

             Moral of the story: if trees can master bio-chemistry to the point of being of extreme danger to animal life, how dangerous could man become if he/she/it decided to become true masters (or monsters) of bio-chemistry and genetics?

             1. Moral of the story: if trees can master bio-chemistry to the point of being of extreme danger to animal life, how dangerous could man become if he/she/it decided to become true masters (or monsters) of bio-chemistry and genetics?

                Well the manchineel tree is native to Florida and considered endangered. So man is beating the deadliest tree known. Though I do know where a few of them are located. They have some very interesting chemical compounds to say the least.

                But for really true deadliness one needs to look at the tropical oceans. Seems that recently, we are beginning to find box jelly fish in our waters. Portuguese Man of War apparently weren’t toxic enough…

                https://www.ourbeautifulplanet.org/nature/box-jellyfish-deadly/

                When determining how deadly a venomous a creature is, you generally want to take two metrics into consideration:

                1. How many people an ounce of venom can kill
                2. The length of time it will take for the person to die after being bitten, or in this case stung.

                When looking at both metrics, the box jellyfish or ‘sea wasp’, named for its body shape, takes the cake. Coming in at an average weight of 4.4 lbs, just a single box Jellyfish has the ability to kill 60 adults.

                BTW, it seems that due to climate change, the oceans of the future will provide habitat better suited to ever increasing quantities of all kinds of jelly fish. Just one more of Nature’s ways of evening the score.

                1. Box jelly fish are really poisonous.
                   They were around in Micronesia.

                2. Fred, the most dangerous and deadly thing in the world weighs nothing at all. It’s called an idea. It’s starts small, then as more people have it, it can spread until we have a whole world of destruction like we do now. There is a problem. Ideas take possession and reroute intent, spurring untested results.
                   People don’t have ideas, ideas have people. People then propagate the ideas into mass reality until it’s a total big mess they are trapped within (Look familiar? No, just look around.)

                   For those who don’t understand the term I will define it.
                   HAVE =possess, own, or hold.
                   Now to substitute:
                   People don’t possess ideas, ideas possess people.
                   People don’t own ideas, ideas own people.
                   People don’t hold ideas, ideas hold people.

                   I am sure you can come up with books full of examples of that . However, there are just a few that are the most dangerous.

                3. Fred, the most dangerous and deadly thing in the world weighs nothing at all. It’s called an idea. It’s starts small, then as more people have it, it can spread until we have a whole world of destruction like we do now.

                   While that is true for some ideas, it is also true that the same evolutionary mechanisms apply to good and beneficial ideas as well. So it is possible that a good idea can start small and spread until we have a whole world of constructive and beneficial change!

                   It does not follow that ALL ideas are dangerous and destructive. The Darwinian laws of selection apply to both beneficial and dangerous ideas.

                   Cheers!

                4. Here’s how some of those beneficial ideas can spread and effect all of us. This young lady has a few ideas of her own apparently and she seems to have planted them in some other very fertile minds. She is for impeaching Trump, I’d vote for her in a NY minute. Her ideas are going viral. Puns intended 😉

                   https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ocasio-cortez-climate-change_us_5b3307a5e4b0b5e692f25e18

                   :QUEENS, N.Y. ― Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s stunning primary victory over powerful U.S. Rep. Joe Crowley in the working-class New York district stretching from the Bronx to Queens is likely to propel her avowedly left-wing platform into the Democratic mainstream as the 2018 midterm elections heat up.

                   But her detailed proposals to deal with climate change could prove among the most influential at a time when the Democrats have failed to rally around any policy that could feasibly reduce greenhouse gas emissions dramatically enough to make a difference.

                   Ocasio-Cortez outlined plans to transition the United States to a 100 percent renewable energy system by 2035. It’s a goal hailed by environmentalists as the last best hope of staving off the most catastrophic effects of human-caused planetary warming, and it’s one already adopted by a coalition of mayors representing 42 percent of U.S. electricity use and representing major cities such as Atlanta and St. Louis.

                   What sets Ocasio-Cortez’s proposal apart is her plan to meet the target by implementing what she called a “Green New Deal,” a federal plan to spur “the investment of trillions of dollars and the creation of millions of high-wage jobs.”

                5. A wake up call for the Dims– lets hope they embrace it.
                   Even some Repugs are getting a bit nervous, but their simpleminded and greedy interests prevent realistic analysis.

                6. Yep, 1 out of 435 representatives. I am sure that labeling it “A New Green Deal” will make the partisan divide even wider.

                   Sure, support her, but more importantly vote with your wallet and your lifestyle.

                7. I am sure that labeling it “A New Green Deal” will make the partisan divide even wider.

                   Yep, it probably will, but you know what?!
                   At this point, I REALLY DON’T CARE, DO U?

                   As someone up thread said, and I’m paraphrasing a bit:

                   “…the most dangerous and deadly thing in the world weighs nothing at all. It’s called an idea. It’s starts small, then as more people have it, it can spread until we have a whole world drastically changed by it.” 😉

                   New Ideas can also be dangerous and sometimes even fatal to the status quo and the old paradigm. Here’s to hoping they are!

                   Cheers!

          2. amen.. God provides so much to us, in return just for believing in him.. remember the more seed you sow the more you harvest, as your reward for living on this earth..

             1. The jokes write themselves…

             2. Every Sperm is Sacred – Monty Python’s The Meaning of Life
                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUspLVStPbk

                1. That is where ideas gets one. Now for something completely different, it’s called reality. Most sperm die in battle. Only one out of 400 million might make it. Each man is an extremely poor general to his sperm, sending them into the most deadly battles in history.
                   It’s actually even worse, as Dave Allen will explain.

                   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FChNBd1pQVs

       2. Really now? What the hell is going on? Is my pessimism, my doomerism, contagious? I thought you guys were the optimists.

          Okay, okay, perhaps I misread your opposition to my thoughts as something else, that you actually agree with me that we are actually headed to hell in a handbasket. That the human race is destroying the very niche it depends on for survival. Perhaps you really do understand what is going on after all. Well, what a goddamn relief that is.

          Well, at least Dennis and Nick still think everything will still turn up roses. Hope springs eternal.

          Oh, my internet is back up now after being down for 13 days. I hope to keep up now with the conversation.

          1. Don’t forget to unplug power (computer and modem) and copper telephone/cable lines during storms or you may be out for another 13 days,
             .

             NAOM

          2. Don’t worry Ron, The Orange Lout is keeping everyone safe.

          3. Ron Patterson,

             I agree with your main point.

             Your saying that we are destroying the niche we depend on for our survival reminded me of a point Paul Colinvaux made some decades ago: We are the species that usurps niches, takes them away from other species.

             Colinvaux was one of the shapers of ecology in the US. Sharp, and an excellent writer as well as researcher. I recommend looking into his book Why Big Fierce Animals are Rare.

             1. Thanks, Synapsid, I will check it out when I get back to the states. That book is not available on Kindle and I cannot get it delivered to Mexico. But it looks like something I would be interested in.

                1. Available on amazon.com.mx

                   NAOM

          4. Hi Ron,

             The future is unknown. I don’t know how it will turn out, only that an assumption that things will always be done in the future the way they are done at present has never been a good assumption.

             There is a possibility that the forecasts of future population will be incorrect as well as the future projections of fossil fuel use and non fossil fuel expansion by oil companies and major national and international agencies (such as the US EIA and IEA). Climate forecasts depend critically on how much carbon is emitted in the future, which in turn will determine how much melting of permafrost and other sources of deep ocean methane might be released.

             Often the most dire climate projections assume about 5000 Pg of anthropogenic carbon emissions when 1500 Pg C is consistent with the highest of my projections (which many have claimed are far too rosy.)

             My main point is that better policy may improve the outcome compared to the way we do things today. I also think it highly unlikely that things will not change in the future, but not all changes are negative, some changes may be positive in the sense that we may gradually move towards a more sustainable way of living as population peaks and then declines (peak human population around 2070 according to the Wittgenstein Center).

             http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/WorldPopulation/Projections_2014.html

             In the medium (most likely) scenario from today’s perspective that combines medium fertility and mortality assumptions with a continuation of the recent Global Education Trends (GET)—the aggregate population for the world will reach 8.3 billion in 2030, 9.2 billion in 2050, peak at 9.4 billion around 2070 and start a slow decline to 9.0 billion by the end of the century.

             1. I also think it highly unlikely that things will not change in the future,…

                It is a lead pipe cinch that things will change in the future. They are changing right now. Deserts are expanding, rivers are running dry, water tables are dropping, rainforest and boreal forest are disappearing, species are going extinct. Yes, Dennis, things are changing and changing fast.

                From your link: Trends (GET)—the aggregate population for the world will reach 8.3 billion in 2030, 9.2 billion in 2050, peak at 9.4 billion around 2070 and start a slow decline to 9.0 billion by the end of the century.

                Dennis, the destruction we see now is happening with the population at 7,6 billion. If it held steady at 7.6 billion then the destruction you see happening right now would continue… and famine would start to ravage the world well before the end of the century. How do you think India will feed 1.35 billion people without irrigation water? And China has the same problem?

                NASA says Water tables are droppong so much it is affecting the flight of spacecraft.

                Underground aquifers supply 35% of the water used by humans worldwide. Demand is even greater in times of drought. Rain-starved California is currently tapping aquifers for 60 percent of its water use, up from the usual 40 percent.
                

                And the FAO says:

                Although only 17 percent of all cropland is currently irrigated, it provides 40 percent of the world’s food.

                And that 40% of world food production is not only threatened by falling water tables but also from salt buildup on irrigated land.

                Dennis, I have said this many times but once again: It’s already too goddamn late to fix the problem. The destruction is ongoing and will continue. And disaster will strike while the population is still rising. That is before the end of this century.

47. Don’t be so negative. God will provide.

    Which God? So far the Snake God/Goddess of fertility and gentle rain seems to be winning… Unfortunately, She, He, It, doesn’t care all that much about civilized humans in the long term… Kangaroos and snakes, maybe!
    .

    

    1. “Which God?”

       Oh for heaven’s sake Fred, you know perfectly well which God. Do you really think I’d worship a fucking snake? Mind you, Hell might be a pit full of the damn things. Hmm, maybe I should have been a better person.

       1. Indianna Jones: Why Did It Have to Be Snakes
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClwIj3x24Q4
          😉

48. I have made a minor change to the graphic labeled “2018 US Electricity Generation Retirements” in the lead post. The last item in the legend now reads “Total (MW)” instead of just “Total”. I hope that removes any misunderstandings as to what the yellow dotted line represents.

    1. The next month report is out. Coal decisively below 25% and solar nudging 3%.

49. June 27, 51 large, wildfires are burning on more than 450,000 acres in the United States, most in western states and Alaska. Overall, 2.2 million U.S. acres have already been scorched in just the first half of the year, approaching the long-term average for an entire year. Some (myself included) might be tempted to call this global warming feedback. And, looking ahead, the Arctic contains roughly 1,500 billion tonnes of organic matter which has been frozen for thousands of years. As it thaws it will decay, releasing carbon and methane into the atmosphere — enhancing warming, regardless of what humans decide to do.

    Meanwhile, enormous wildfires are spreading in Siberia. Warm weather primed Siberia for wildfires this spring. After a moderate outbreak in April, the countryside lit up in a major way. The fires are the latest in a litany of changes taking place in the northern part of the world.

    1. The West is drying out long term, so the fires are a chronic problem as in some other places in the world. At some point many of these areas will not grow back as can be seen in areas such as the Badlands or Red Rock regions.
       What I find startling is that much of the migration within the US is to warmer areas. As time goes on the US will face internal migration from sea level rise/extreme storms in the coastal areas as well as migrations from areas due to increased heat and loss of water. Plus there is bound to be external migration pressure as global warming pressures other populations.

50. Govt economic advisor warns British defence planners that growth is ending

    https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/govt-economic-advisor-warns-british-defence-planners-that-growth-is-ending-abf806f17845

    1. In the decor of the spectacle,
       the eye meets only things
       & their prices.

51. Arctic Sea Ice is thinning fast now.

    

    1. “We keep burning fossil fuels, carbon dioxide keeps building up in the air, it’s essentially as simple as that.” — Ralph Keeling

       1. Fossil CO2 does play a part, smaller part each year.

52. The way I see it, the impending retirement of Anthony Kennedy (at this time) is a spooky development because replacing him with a solidly conservative justice, which seems likely, bodes poorly for liberals — for decades to come. Of course, I know diddly squat about American politics but it seems these supreme court dudes retain their posts for decades so matters like abortion, capital punishment, gay marriage, and climate change legislation may be determined (solidified) by highly Conservative individuals even if (when) people like Trump get booted out. Correct me if I’m wrong.

    1. Let the other free countries be forewarned about how fast societal progress can be dismantled by religious/bigoted zealots.

53. A new post is up.

    http://peakoilbarrel.com/world-energy-2018-2050-world-energy-annual-report-part-1/

    Also an Open Thread on any topic as the post by Dr Li covers a wide range of topics (fossil fuel, renewable energy, climate change and economic growth).

    http://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-june-28-2018/

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