Production Projections – Page 8

May Non-OPEC Oil Production Declines Again

09/10/202209/10/2022 Ovi 260 Comments

A guest post by Ovi

Below are a number of Crude oil plus Condensate (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to May 2022. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world. The US report has an expanded view beyond production by adding rig and frac charts.

May Non-OPEC production decreased by 148 kb/d to 48,834 kb/d. The biggest decliners were Canada 193 kb/d, Brazil 120 kb/d, US 56 kb/d and Norway 38 kb/d. The biggest offsetting increases came from from Kazakhstan 148 kb/d and Russia 145 kb/d.

GOM Oil Production fuels US June Increase

09/02/202209/02/2022 Ovi 115 Comments

A Guest post by Ovi

All of the Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM.

U.S. June production increased by 201 kb/d to 11,816 kb/d. Of the 201 kb/d increase, the largest increase came from the GOM, 183 kb/d. June’s production was a new recent high at 26 kb/d higher than November 2021 which was producing at a rate of 11,790 kb/d.

OPEC Update, August 2022

08/25/202209/02/2022 D Coyne 234 Comments

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for August 2022 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is July 2022 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In most of the OPEC charts that follow the blue line is monthly output and the red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.

Russia Oil Drop Collapses April Non-OPEC Production

08/17/202208/17/2022 Ovi 309 Comments

A guest post by Ovi

Below are a number of Crude oil plus Condensate (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to April 2022. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world.

April Non-OPEC production decreased by 1,294 kb/d to 48,925 kb/d. Of the 1,294 kb/d decrease, the biggest decreases came from Russia, 965 kb/d, Kazakhstan, 175 kb/d, Canada, 95 kb/d and Norway, 78 kb/d. There were no significant offsetting increases. The April 2022 output of 48,925 kb/d is 3,295 kb/d lower than the March pre-covid rate of 52,220 kb/d.

Future Decline Rate of World Oil Output

08/08/202208/08/2022 D Coyne 269 Comments

A conservative model of future World Crude plus Condensate (C+C) output is presented below with an average decline rate of 2.8% from 2040 to 2110. From 1933 to 1972 World C+C output increased at an average annual rate of about 7.8% and after the oil shocks in the 1970s and 1980s from 1983 to 2016 output increased at 1.2%/year on average. The decrease in the rate of change in World output was 6.5% between the high growth period up to 1972 and the slower growth period up to 2016. My model projects continued 1.2% average annual growth in C+C output from 2022 to 2029 when the final peak in output is projected. The annual rate of decline gradually increases to above 2.5% by 2039 and is followed by steady decline at 2.8% for the next 70 years. The decrease in the rate of change in output from the earlier period from 1983 to 2029 (about 1.2%) to the period after 2039 is 4%. Chart has a log vertical axis to indicate rates of change in output.