Category: Production Projections

Russia Oil Drop Collapses April Non-OPEC Production

Ovi 309 Comments

A guest post by Ovi

Below are a number of Crude oil plus Condensate (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to April 2022. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world.

April Non-OPEC production decreased by 1,294 kb/d to 48,925 kb/d. Of the 1,294 kb/d decrease, the biggest decreases came from Russia, 965 kb/d, Kazakhstan, 175 kb/d, Canada, 95 kb/d and Norway, 78 kb/d. There were no significant offsetting increases. The April 2022 output of 48,925 kb/d is 3,295 kb/d lower than the March pre-covid rate of 52,220 kb/d.

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Future Decline Rate of World Oil Output

D Coyne 269 Comments

A conservative model of future World Crude plus Condensate (C+C) output is presented below with an average decline rate of 2.8% from 2040 to 2110. From 1933 to 1972 World C+C output increased at an average annual rate of about 7.8% and after the oil shocks in the 1970s and 1980s from 1983 to 2016 output increased at 1.2%/year on average. The decrease in the rate of change in World output was 6.5% between the high growth period up to 1972 and the slower growth period up to 2016. My model projects continued 1.2% average annual growth in C+C output from 2022 to 2029 when the final peak in output is projected. The annual rate of decline gradually increases to above 2.5% by 2039 and is followed by steady decline at 2.8% for the next 70 years. The decrease in the rate of change in output from the earlier period from 1983 to 2029 (about 1.2%) to the period after 2039 is 4%. Chart has a log vertical axis to indicate rates of change in output.

Figure 1
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March Non-OPEC Oil Production at Post Pandemic high

Ovi 240 Comments

A guest post by Ovi

Below are a number of crude oil plus condensate (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to March 2022. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world.

March Non-OPEC production increased by 264 kb/d to 50,243 kb/d. Of the 264 kb/d increase, the biggest increases came from the U.S., 349 kb/d and China, 78 kb/d. Offsetting the increases were decreases from Kazakhstan, Russia and Norway. The March 2022 output of 50,243 kb/d is 1,975 kb/d lower than the March pre-covid rate of 52,218 kb/d.

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EIA’s June 2022 Oil Production Outlooks

Ovi 194 Comments

A guest post by Ovi

Each month the EIA produces four reports which project oil output for the US and the World. The Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts oil output for a period of 12 to 24 months into the future for US and World oil production. A second report, the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) forecasts the combined production for conventional and tight oil in the main tight oil basins, four months ahead of the EIA monthly report. Their third report, Light Tight Oil (LTO), reports on only the tight oil produced in seven tight oil basins and a few smaller ones. A fourth and final outlook is the Monthly Energy Review (MER) that forecasts US output two months past the official US production numbers, for this report that will be October and November. Due to technical issues at the EIA, the LTO report and the MER were not available at press time.

Production numbers/charts for May for four countries obtained from their official sites are provided below.

Normally the Outlooks report appears at the end of the monthly US report. For this month it has been posted separately and early.

1) Short Term Energy Outlook

The June STEO provides projections for the next 21 months, starting with April 2022 to December 2023, for US C + C and other countries. 

The June 2022 STEO has revised downward its projected US oil output from May 2022 to Q3-23. However Q4-23 has been revised up from the previous May 2022 STEO. In December 2023 output is expected to reach 13,444 kb/d, 160 kb/d higher than reported in the May report

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