Oil Production – Page 8 – Peak Oil Barrel

EIA’s June 2022 Oil Production Outlooks

06/25/202206/25/2022 Ovi 194 Comments

A guest post by Ovi

Each month the EIA produces four reports which project oil output for the US and the World. The Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts oil output for a period of 12 to 24 months into the future for US and World oil production. A second report, the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) forecasts the combined production for conventional and tight oil in the main tight oil basins, four months ahead of the EIA monthly report. Their third report, Light Tight Oil (LTO), reports on only the tight oil produced in seven tight oil basins and a few smaller ones. A fourth and final outlook is the Monthly Energy Review (MER) that forecasts US output two months past the official US production numbers, for this report that will be October and November. Due to technical issues at the EIA, the LTO report and the MER were not available at press time.

Production numbers/charts for May for four countries obtained from their official sites are provided below.

Normally the Outlooks report appears at the end of the monthly US report. For this month it has been posted separately and early.

1) Short Term Energy Outlook

The June STEO provides projections for the next 21 months, starting with April 2022 to December 2023, for US C + C and other countries.

The June 2022 STEO has revised downward its projected US oil output from May 2022 to Q3-23. However Q4-23 has been revised up from the previous May 2022 STEO. In December 2023 output is expected to reach 13,444 kb/d, 160 kb/d higher than reported in the May report

Gulf of Mexico update

05/25/202205/25/2022 Bob Meltz 122 Comments

Through 2021 the federal waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico (OCS) have cumulative production of 23.4 Bbo and 193 Tcf. The deepwater (water depths > 1000’ as defined by BOEM) has produced 10.2 Bbo and 23.5 Tcf while the shelf has produced 13.2 Bbo and 169.5 Tcf. From a BOE standpoint, the GOM has primarily been a gas province, and the bulk of that production has come from shelf fields. While the shelf has produced more cumulative oil than deepwater, over 90% of current oil production comes from deepwater fields.

First production from the OCS occurred in 1947. First deepwater production was in 1979 from Shell’s Cognac field in 1022’ of water. GOM oil production in December 2021 was 1.69 mmbopd as per BSEE. As Ovi says in his monthly updates, if GOM were a state, it would be the 2^nd leading oil producing state in the US, only behind Texas.

Brief history of GOM gas production

GOM gas production peaked in 1997 at 14.4 bcf/day and has been declining ever since. Current gas production is about 2 bcf/day.

Figure 1 – GOM gas production, with shelf and deepwater broken out. Data from BOEM.

OPEC Update, May 2022

05/19/202205/19/2022 D C 124 Comments

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for May 2022 was published last week. The last month reported in each of the charts that follow is April 2022 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In most of the charts that follow the blue line is monthly output and the red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.

Decline in World Conventional Oil Output and Peak Oil

04/25/202204/25/2022 D C 216 Comments

World Conventional Oil output peaked at a centered twelve month average (CTMA) of 74193 kb/d in July 2016. This peak is unlikely to be surpassed in the future. I do not include an estimate of unconventional oil produced in Venezuela as this data is difficult to find. In the chart below, I compare World C+C output to World conventional oil, which I define in this post as World C+C minus the sum of US tight oil and Canadian oil sands. The units for most charts (figures 11 and 12 are exceptions) will be kb/d on vertical axes. Data for oil output in all charts that follow will be the centered twelve month average output. Data is from the EIA’s International Energy Statistics.

Non-OPEC December Oil Production Drifts Lower

04/09/202204/12/2022 Ovi 229 Comments

A guest post by Ovi

Below are a number of crude oil plus condensate (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to December 2021. This is the latest and most detailed world oil information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world.

December Non-OPEC production decreased by 261 kb/d to 49,628 kb/d. Of the 261 kb/d decrease, the biggest decreases came from the US 205 kb/d, Brazil 113 kb/d and China 91 kb/d. Offsetting the decreases were increases from Norway, 117 kb/d and Guyana 86 kb/d.