The EIA updated the Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) in March and also released the 2023 version of the Annual Energy Outlook in March. This post will take a brief look at both of these reports with a focus on Crude plus Condensate (C+C) Output for the World, OPEC and Non-OPEC in the case of the STEO through the fourth quarter of 2024 and US C+C output for three oil price cases from 2022 to 2050, reference (medium oil price), high and low oil price cases.
A guest post by Ovi
Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for Non-OPEC countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to November 2022. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few of these countries and the world. The US report has an expanded view beyond production by adding rig and frac spread charts.
November Non-OPEC oil production increased by 502 kb/d to 51,099 kb/d. The majority of the increase came from Kazakhstan and Russia.
In the last report, the forecast for November production was 51,051 kb/d. It was low by 48 kb/d.
Read MoreThe Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on February 7, 2023. For most nations except the US and total OPEC crude oil output the forecast for future production is for total liquids only. In this month’s post I will try to estimate the crude plus condensate (C+C) output indicated by the STEO total liquids estimate for the top 10 non-OPEC producers and the World minus the top 10 non-OPEC producers. I will focus on quarterly output so that we can compare with recent OPEC estimates for World supply and demand in 2023. The estimate for C+C uses historical output of both C+C and total liquids and uses the average of the ratio of C+C to total liquids for the past 12 quarters (2019Q4 to 2022Q3) for the top 10 non-OPEC producers (except the US where a C+C forecast is provided) and for the World minus the top 10 non-OPEC producers. In most of the charts that follow the units on the vertical axis are kb/d of C+C output.
A Guest Post by Ovi
Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for Non-OPEC countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to September 2022. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world. The US report has an expanded view beyond production by adding rig and frac charts.
September Non-OPEC oil production increased by 229 kb/d to 49,962 kb/d. All of the increase came from the US, 289 kb/d. The largest offsetting decrease came from Norway 144 kb/d. Note that August output was revised down from 49,879 to 49,733 kb/d. This means that the September increase relative to the original August estimate is 83 kb/d.
October is expected to add 527 kb/d. This appears to be optimistic based on a few country charts below which project October production. Brazil +97 kb/d, Canada -600 kb/d, Kazakhstan +235 kb/d, Norway +100 kb/d and Russia +124 kb/d for a net of -44 kb/d. Maybe the EIA is not aware of the Canadian drop in October. The positive increments add 556 kb/d.
Read MoreA guest post by Ovi
Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for Non-OPEC countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to August 2022. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world. The US report has an expanded view beyond production by adding rig and frac charts.
August Non-OPEC oil production increased by 138 kb/d to 49,879 kb/d. The largest increases came from Norway 147 kb/d and Brazil 124 kb/d. The largest offsetting decrease came from Kazakhstan 179 kb/d.
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