Peak Oil Barrel

By Ovi

The focus of this post is an overview of World oil production along with a more detailed review of the top 11 Non-OPEC oil producing countries. OPEC production is covered in a separate post.
Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for the oil producing countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to November 2025. This is the latest and most detailed/complete World oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, IEA, STEO and country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway, Mexico, Argentina and China is reported to provide an extra one or two month outlook.

The EIA March STEO report has made significant and major revisions to the projected World oil production due to the US/Iranian war. Also US projected production has been significantly revised upward. See US chart at the end.

The World’s November oil production decreased by 109 kb/d to 86,281 kb/d.

September 2025 is the new World Peak Oil at 86,428 kb/d for the next year and a half when in late 2027 more oil production is brought online. Note that after the March output crash, oil production only gets back to the November 2025 production level in November 2026.

This chart has been updated using the March 2026 STEO to project World C + C production out to December 2027. It uses the STEO report along with the International Energy Statistics to make the projection. Production in December 2025 is projected to decrease by 276 kb/d to 86,005 kb/d. March production drops by more than 6,000 kb/d due to the Iran/US war.

The 12 month Centred Moving Average shown at July 2027 is 86,445 kb/d vs the September 2018 12 month CMA of 82,962 kb/d.

For December 2027, production is projected to be 87,034 b/d, a new projected high and an upward revision of 674 kb/d from the previous report. Most of that increase is from the US. See US chart below.

November’s World oil output W/O the US decreased by 33 kb/d to 72,493 kb/d. December’s production is expected to decrease by 142 kb/d to 72,351 kb/d.

The projection is forecasting that December 2027 World W/O US oil production will be 73,190 kb/d, an increase of 697 kb/d from November 2025.

A Different Perspective on World Oil Production

November’s Big 3 oil production decreased by 150 kb/d to 33,778 kb/d.

Production in the remaining countries has been slowly increasing since the September 2020 low of 42,970 kb/d. Production rose in November 2025 by 41 kb/d to 52,503 kb/d.

Countries Expected to Grow Oil Production

This chart shows the combined oil production from five Non-OPEC countries, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and the U.S., whose oil production is expected to grow. These five countries are often cited by OPEC and the IEA for being capable of meeting the increasing World oil demand for next few years. For these five countries, production from April 2020 to July 2025 rose at an average rate of 1,130 kb/d/year as shown by the orange OLS line.

To show the impact of US growth over the past 5 years, U.S. production was removed from the five countries and that graph is shown in red. The production growth slope for the remaining four countries has been reduced by 614 kb/d/yr to 516 kb/d/yr.

November production has been added to the five growers chart and it dropped by 90 kb/d to 24,531 kb/d. November’s production drop was a mix of small gains and declines. For the Five growers W/O U.S., November production dropped by 7 kb/d to 10,750 kb/d.

December production for the five countries is expected to be up a bit and then drop in January,

Note: The OLS lines are updated to July 2025.

World Oil Countries Ranked by Production

Above are listed the World’s 13th largest oil producing countries. In November 2025 these 13 countries produced 78.8% of the World’s oil. On a MoM basis, production decreased by 98 kb/d in these 13 countries while on a YOY basis production rose by 3,089 kb/d. Note the large YoY increases from Saudi Arabia, Brazil and the US..

November Non-OPEC Oil Production Charts

November’s Non-OPEC oil production increased by 74 kb/d to 55,428 kb/d. December is expected to drop by 335 kb/d to 55,093 kb/d. A much lager drop of 935 kb/d to 54.157 kb/d in expected in January.

Using data from the March 2026 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the period December 2025 to December 2027. (Red graph).  Output is expected to grow by 973 kb/d from November 2025 to reach 56,401 kb/d in December 2027.

December 2027 production was revised up by 681 kb/d from 55,720 kb/d. The increase came mostly from the US.

November’s Non-OPEC W/O US oil production increased by 149 kb/d to 41,640 kb/d. December’s production is projected to drop by 202 kb/d to 41,438 kb/d.

From November 2025 to December 2027, production in Non-OPEC countries W/O the U.S. is expected to increase by 917 kb/d to 42,557 kb/d.

Non-OPEC Oil Countries Ranked by Production

Listed above are the World’s 11 largest Non-OPEC producers. The original criteria for inclusion in the table was that all of the countries produced more than 1,000 kb/d.

November’s MoM production increased by 47 kb/d to 46,219 kb/d for these eleven Non-OPEC countries while as a whole the Non-OPEC countries saw a yearly production increase of 2,362 kb/d to 55,428 kb/d. Major yearly gains came from Brazil and the U.S.

In November 2025, these 11 countries produced 83.4% of all Non-OPEC oil. 

Non-OPEC Country’s Oil Production Charts

The EIA reported Angola’s November oil production rose by 20 kb/d to 1,045 kb/d.

According to Angola’s National Agency for Petroleum, December’s production was 1,028 kb/d, red marker.

The EIA reported that Brazil’s November production dropped by 257 kb/d to 3,773 kb/d. According to this article, the November Production drop was due to platform outages at offshore fields.

Brazil’s National Petroleum Association (BNPA) reported that production rose in December and dropped to 3,950 kb/d in January. December production rebounded to 4,012 kb/d. Pre-Salt production was a major contributor to December’s rebound. Pre-salt production decreased by 61 kb/d in January to 3,182 kb/d.

Canada’s oil production increased by 252 kb/d in November to 5,234 kb/d.

A projection has been made for December production based on preliminary production provided by the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). December’s projected production rose to 5,275 kb/d, a new record high, red marker. The CER estimate contains some NGLs which have been removed from the projection. On average the EIA reduces the CER’s monthly production by 375 kb/d which was also done for the December estimate.

According to this Article Canada has agreed to “do its part” to help the IEA release of oil reserves.

“Hodgson said Wednesday Canada will support those efforts but didn’t say what form that would take.” In a later release he said he would ask oil companies to release oil from their reserves.

The EIA reported China’s November oil output rose by 70 kb/d to 4,310 kb/d.

The China National Bureau of Statistics reported December production dropped by 120kb/d to 4,190 kb/d. No report is available for January due to Chinese New Year.

On a YoY basis, China’s November production increased by 113 kb/d to 4,310 kb/d.

Note the large drop of 310 kb/d from March 2025 to December 2025. That appears to be a record drop over those nine months.

According to the EIA, Kazakhstan’s November oil output increased by 81 kb/d to 2,029 kb/d.

Since Argus no longer reports OPEC + crude production, production data for Kazakhstan will now be taken from the monthly IEA reports. In December 2025 pre-salt crude production was 1,500 kb/d. The March IEA OMR reported January 2026 production was 1,360 kb/d and February rose to 1,430 kb/d.

According to the EIA, Mexico’s November output dropped by 1 kb/d to 1,730 kb/d.

In June 2024, Pemex issued a new and modified oil production report for Heavy, Light and Extra Light oil. It is shown in blue in the chart and it appears that Mexico is not reporting condensate production when compared to the EIA report.

In earlier EIA reports, they would add close to 55 kb/d of condensate to the Pemex’s “Total Liquids” report. More recently the EIA has been adding 90 kb/d of condensate to Mexican production. For December and January production, 90 kb/d have been added to the Pemex report. January’s production is estimated to be close to 1,745 kb/d. Note that Mexico’s production, as reported by Pemex for the last seven months has stabilized around 1,650 kb/d.

The EIA reported Norway’s November production dropped by 24 kb/d 1,899 kb/d.

Separately, the Norway Petroleum Directorate (NPD) reported that January’s oil production rose to 2,017 kb/d, a new high, red markers.

The Norway Petroleum Directorship also reported that January’s oil production was 6.3 % above forecast.

According to OPEC’s March MOMR: “Norwegian liquids production is forecast to drop by about 40 tb/d to average 2.0 mb/d in 2026. Several projects are scheduled to ramp up through the year, including Balder/Ringhorne, Heidrun, Gina Krog, Maria, and Snohvit.

According to the EIA, November’s output rose by 6 kb/d to 1,023 kb/d and appears to have started a budding growth phase. Previous production peaked in October 2022.

Qatar is now providing the EIA with monthly updated oil production back to January 2025. Qatar’s November output was reported to be 1,322 kb/d, unchanged from October.

The EIA reported Russia’s November C + C production decreased by 18 kb/d to 10,056 kb/d and was up by 253 kb/d from August 2025.

Up to August 2025 Argus Media used to report OPEC + crude production. That monthly report has now been discontinued. The above chart now also shows Russian production as reported by the IEA. It is difficult to assess the accuracy of the IEA report but over the last few months before publication stopped the IEA’s Russian production had been around 100 kb/d to 150 kb/d higher than Argus’ Media. The best that can be done at this time will be to compare the production trends between the EIA and the IEA. I think that Russian oil production continues to be a major state secret at this time because of the damage being caused by the heavy bombing to its related crude oil processing facilities.

According to the IEA’s February report, December production rose by 640 kb/d to 9,640 kb/d. The March IEA OMR is reporting that Russian crude production dropped to 9,260 kb/d in January and then hit a new February low of 8,550 kb/d. This is the first clear indication that Russian production is being affected by the Russia/Ukraine war. The March OPEC MOMR is reporting Russian February crude production was 9,184 kb/d, a new recent low.

According to this Article, Russia’s ability to store oil is nearing its limit since the majority is on ships and very little is stored on land.

Russian seaborne crude exports fell to 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in January from 3.8 million bpd in December, and are currently tracking around 2.8 million bpd in February, according to analytics firm Kpler.

At the same time, the volume of Russian oil held on ships has climbed to a record high above 150 million barrels in recent months, while many tankers have also slowed their speeds – both signs of weaker buying.

The size of Russia’s onshore storage capacity is unclear, as the government does not publish data, but the amount remaining appears limited. Onshore oil inventories stand around 16 million barrels, or about 51% of capacity, based on satellite monitoring of tanks, according to Kpler senior crude analyst Naveen Das.

For Comparison: US production in last post.

This US production chart up to December 2025 is the same as the one published last week in the US update. However the projected portions of the two production graphs have been updated according to the March 2026 STEO.

This is a case where a picture is worth a 1,000 words. Last week’s chart is posted above for comparison. US total production for December 2027 is expected to be 13,844 kb/d which is an upward revision of 633 kb/d from least week’s US report.

What happened/changed between the February and March STEO’s? Was a new field discovered? Were more oil rigs activated in the STEO model in late 2026? Were five mile wells developed and made operational in late 2026. Was there a significant price increase in WTI. See Brent price chart below which was posted by Dennis in the comments in the previous post. After the March 2026 price spike, the price returned to $62/b in December 2027, same as December 2025.

We will need to track the upcoming weekly rig counts and we will keep a close eye on them. The oil rig count started to increase two weeks ago.

U.S. January projected production is expected to drop to 13,571 kb/d. January’s drop to 13,545 kb/d reflects the severe storms that hit the mid US and the Permian basin.