Peak Oil Barrel

Open Thread Non-Petroleum, June 18, 2025

D C

Comments not related to oil or natural gas production in this thread please. Thanks.

D C

57 responses to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, June 18, 2025”

  1. Hideaway

    Interesting how the markets are going ho-hum about the ME war situation. The S&P500 is basically at the same price as 2 weeks ago.

    My own take is that it’s not as serious yet as the media makes out, due to Israel NOT attacking Khark Island oil facilities at all.

    I also expect a drastic change in outlooks if that facility is attacked and Iran responds in kind. Has Trump told Israel to leave it alone, as any prospect of $50 oil is gone with that taken out, and China would not be pleased at all??

    1. Alimbiquated

      Iran produces less than 5% of world oil output. There are already concerns about falling demand. So the only reason to worry about this war from an oil trader’s point of view is the possibility of closing the sea lanes.

    2. dolph99

      Stock market is supported by the Fed, has been for more than 15 years.

      Come on man, get your naive head out of the sand.

  2. Alimbiquated

    There’s a lot of skepticism about autonomous driving. That’s understandable given how much it’s been overhyped.

    As I have said before to judge the adoption of a new technology, you need to look at niche applications, not the mainstream, because that’s how new technologies grow.

    One market where autonomous vehicles have already arrived and are rapidly spreading is agriculture.

    https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/autonomous-farm-equipment-market-report

    1. Survivalist

      The less actual traffic the better.

      https://www.finning.com/en_CA/company/news-events/product-customer-stories/imperial-oils-kearl-achieves-full-autonomy-of-81-strong-cat-797-fleet.html

      Other than industry wanting to cut jobs, the primary utility for autonomous driving is so that Fanbois can have a wank on the way to shopping.

    2. Some Guy

      Yes, industrial uses are growing steadily, also you can see mines and ports, these are cases where one entity controls the entire operating area and human drivers are well paid.

      And of course metro / subway systems are increasingly moving to autonomous operation, although that technology has been around since the 80’s.

  3. Doug Leighton

    Who would have thought?

    GLASS BOTTLES FOUND TO CONTAIN MORE MICROPLASTICS THAN PLASTIC BOTTLES

    “Drinks including water, soda, beer and wine sold in glass bottles contain more microplastics than those in plastic bottles, according to a surprising study released by France’s food safety agency Friday.”

    https://phys.org/news/2025-06-glass-bottles-microplastics-plastic.html

  4. Doug Leighton

    No surprises here.

    CLIMATE MISINFORMATION TURNING CRISIS INTO CATASTROPHE

    “Online bots and trolls hugely amplify false narratives, the researchers say, playing a key role in promoting climate lies. The experts also report that political leaders, civil servants and regulatory agencies are increasingly being targeted in order to delay climate action. Climate misinformation – the term used by the report for both deliberate and inadvertent falsehoods – is of increasing concern. Last Thursday, the UN special rapporteur on human rights and climate change, Elisa Morgera, called for misinformation and greenwashing by the fossil fuel industry to be criminalised. On Saturday, Brazil, host of the upcoming Cop30 climate summit, will rally nations behind a separate UN initiative to crack down on climate misinformation.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jun/19/climate-misinformation-turning-crisis-into-catastrophe-ipie-report

    1. JJHMAN

      I thought that Brazil was one of the biggest climate disruptors clear cutting rainforests.
      https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/deforestation-brazils-amazon-has-reached-record-high-whats-being-done

    2. Doug Leighton

      No, the biggest climate disruptor is the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas). These fuels release greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, when burned, contributing to over 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90% of carbon dioxide emissions. This process is the primary driver of climate change.

    3. JJHMAN

      The South American rainforests have been called the lungs of the earth. They absorb CO2 from the air and refresh it with oxygen. Without the trees and other photosynthesizing life forms there would be no oxygen in the atmosphere so removing trees is as bad for the atmosphere, and hence the climate, as burning FFs.

  5. WeekendPeak

    Happy birthday Ron!
    Glad that I have been following you since the TOD days.
    rgds
    WP

  6. dolph99

    Not too many comments on Israel Iran yet? Maybe afraid of upsetting the opposing side, getting banned?

    Ok, I’ll start. I fully support Iran, 100%. And I’m an American. They have every right to develop their resources however they want, free from missile attacks.

    Let’s see how long until the Israel supporting warhawks and neocons ban me.

    1. Doug Leighton

      You’d think with all the crap Jews went through during WW2 they would be the most compassionate people on Earth. Doesn’t seem concern for others is part of their DNA.

    2. JJHMAN

      All generalities are bad including this one.
      Please don’t confuse all Jews with the Israeli government. It’s not DNA, it’s individuals who have learned from their past that with the backing of the US they, too, can be the bullies in the neighborhood.
      As much as I deplore the actions of Israel they aren’t quite as nasty as the Germans were in the 1930s yet I new many wonderful Germans when I lived there in the 1960s. Do you blame everyone with any German DNA of being a Nazi?
      The chattel slavery practiced in the United States for over 200 years was a vicious and heartless a system as ever practiced by humans. Do you blame every southerner for being a racist brute?
      What do you think about the DNA of people who voted for Trump? Voted for Trump twice?

    3. Alimbiquated

      This is how I understand the situation:

      Netanyahu has been on the record lying about Iran’s ability and intention to create nuclear weapons since the 90s. Now Trump believes him lol.

      Tulsi Gabbard, a known Russian agent now running America’s spook network, tried to convince Trump that Netanyahu was lying (again). Trump shot that down quick and now she bizarrely claims Iran could produce a bomb in two weeks.

      Another known Russian agent, Tucker Carlson is still complaining, and Trump has started badmouthing him.

      Putin doesn’t want Netanyahu destroying Iran’s missile and drone industry because he needs it to terrorize Ukrainian civilians. He can’t just do bombing runs like he did in Syria, he’d lose what’s left of his air force.

      So Netanyahu has managed to drive a wedge between Trump and Putin. I am genuinely puzzled by this, but Putin has been openly ridiculing Trump, which isn’t a great idea. Pakistan is slyer: They nominated Trump for the “Noble” Peace Prize. I’ve been giggling about that one for days.

      There is even talk about the US invading Iran, but TACO has said he’ll wait two weeks (till the next news cycle) which means he’s chickened out.

      Netanyahu has exactly one reason to start a war against Iran — to stay in power. And it’s working. He has a nice little war cooking there in Gaza, but it’s starting to get embarrassing to starve and massacre millions of civilians, when the only apparent goal is to build a Trump branded golf course. Meanwhile he is making it easier for the mad mullahs to retighten their grip in Teheran, which is good for Netanyahu, because he needs enemies to keep his war going.

    4. Doug Leighton

      Seems like as good a summary as any. Meanwhile, any rational human being will be appalled by the suffering of Palestinians are going through right now.

    5. Iron Mike

      Alim,

      That is one view, and I agree with most of your assessment. What is happening in Gaza is a horrible ethnic cleansing and like you mentioned Netanyahu is doing this to stay in power and perhaps delay the corruption trials.

      I disagree with Tucker and Tulsi being Russian agents, i think they are more of what the MAGA voter base represents specifically regarding foreign policy, which is not to get involved in any more foreign wars. I am guessing this is largely due to what occurred with the atrocious Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns.

      So Trump is stuck between a rock and hard place, which is MAGA and AIPAC, which desperately wants U.S to join the conflict. Hence the indecision and confusing rhetoric from Trump. That is how i see it.

      However in saying all this, as an Iranian, I would love to go back to my country without the fear of being hassled by the autocratic regime. And most Iranians would agree with me and the people living there for the past 45 years have suffered immensely under the Mullahs and would be happy for the fundamentalist cult to go. They have been a cancer to the citizens of Iran domestic and abroad also to the region, exporting terrorism through proxies and like you said supporting Putins ridiculous war.

      So understandably there would be many Iranians supporting Israels campaign, and likewise Israel is also using the civilian support of Iranians in its quest for regime change. Both wanting the same thing in this case.

    6. Alimbiquated

      Do you think a regime change in Iran is realistic? Usually outside attackers solidify a regime, regardless of how unpopular.

      The fact that AIPAC supports Netanyahu shows what a folie a deux the relationship between America and Israel has become. The guy is a cheap crook and his policies are bad for the country, but the likes of Sheldon Adelson, who probably can’t find Israel an a map, supports and finances him and have managed to hijack both the US and the Israeli government.

      That said, I am still surprised how far Trump has drifted from the Putin line in recent days.

    7. Iron Mike

      Do you think a regime change in Iran is realistic? Usually outside attackers solidify a regime, regardless of how unpopular.

      To be honest i have no idea how this is going to play out. I am guessing how Iran responds will set the next stage in motion.

      One scenario could be, after the U.S strikes if Iran retaliates on U.S bases or assets around the region, either directly or through proxies, then that might be the end of them as U.S and Israel might seriously consider killing Khamenei. Essentially i think they will do everything except put boots on the ground. If that scenario plays out.

      Another scenario is the army surrenders and makes a deal with the west for a coup. God knows.

      Iran has an interesting demographic with 40% of the population aged below 24. Most of the population wasn’t even born when the revolution happened and basically has no common ground or relation with the regime.

      With that demographic and a half decent government they can set the country up to become prosperous like the rest of the gulf countries.

      The Geography of Iran is also perfect for major renewable build out backed up by natgas. The whole nuclear power thing is very dumb for that region, which kind of sways me to think they actually wanted to build nuclear weapons. But honestly i just don’t know.

    8. Alimbiquated

      Iran is planning to build 15 GW of solar.

      https://www.power-technology.com/news/iran-plan-constrution-of-15gw-of-solar-capacity/

      One advantage of solar is that it is widely distributed, so it doesn’t offer juicy targets from bombing raids. For example, Germany now has more than a million solar installations, mostly rooftop. 200 MW is considered a huge solar site, but is classified as small for a nuclear plant.

    9. JJHMAN

      According to this morning’s news the Iranian opposition is indeed joining the religious crazies in opposing the US/Israeli war. That should be no surprise.

    10. Alimbiquated

      I am still surprised how far Trump has drifted from the Putin line in recent days.

      Of course, Putin is showing his true colors and dumping his “ally” Iran, saying he wants to stay “neutral”. So good call by Trump on that front, I guess. It takes a weasel to know a weasel.

    11. D C

      Putin might be happy about higher oil prices, Shi likely is not so happy, but reportedly there is quite a bit of oil in storage in China.

      Quietly, many Middle East States might be happy that Iran has been set back in their potential to develop nuclear weapons and in their ability to support various terrorist groups in the region.

    12. Hickory

      Iron Mike- thanks for perspective.

      Doug- really disappointed about your comment on ‘DNA’. I’d expect something like that from the Hitler crowd. The Palestinians, Iranians and Israelis are all very decent peoples when they have decent conditions to live in. European derived persons such as yourself have horrible history of behavior at your core, not necessarily your family in particular, but the collective horde. Glass house stone throwing does not look good on you.

    13. T HILL

      This is extremely deficient, even for a thumbnail sketch of the situation.

      Not sure that it is even worth trying to expand given the tenor of some of these posts here. A very good reminder of several realities though.

    14. D C

      T Hill,

      If you have an alternative viewpoint, present it.

    15. T HILL

      OK, I will do so with a focus on the current Israeli kinetic action vs Iran and the prior comments about infeasibility of Iran developing nuclear weapons and lack of justification for an Israeli strike on facilities/personnel supporting such development.

      This is a complex region with a deep history that cannot be done justice in this format. I will make the argument as simple as possible.

      The current phase of kinetic conflict was initiated by the 10/7/23 cross-border incursion of Hamas combatants and what would otherwise be non-combatants into Israel. Hezbollah followed on 10/8/23 by firing guided rockets and artillery shells into Israel.

      Iran has provided Hamas and Hezbollah with significant military and other aid for decades. Iran also strongly supported Assad’s Syria before he fell. The founding Hamas charter called for the killing of Jews and destruction of Israel. Hezbollah was/is publicly committed to the destruction of Israel. Iran does not recognize Israel as a state and has similarly called for the destruction of Israel. Hamas and Hezbollah have been proxies for Iran for decades.

      Nuclear reactors for electricity production typically use uranium enriched to 3-5%.

      As of 5/17/25, the IAEA identified 900 pounds of uranium enriched to 60% in Iran, and noted that Iran was then ‘the only non-nuclear weapon state to produce such material’. The IAEA on 6/12/25 concluded that Iran was not complying with its obligations regarding nuclear non-proliferation. Iran then announced plans to open a new uranium enrichment plant to increase production of enriched fissile material. It is easier to go from 60% to the 90% level typically used in weapons than it is to get to the 60% level in the first place. On 6/13/25, Israel then struck Iran’s nuclear facilities, top military leaders, nuclear scientists and other military sites.

    16. Hickory

      Agree T Hill.
      A few brief observations.
      – Iran would be a dramatically better place if it had a secular state and gave up on the project of trying to erase Israel. Pre-revolution they had cordial relations.
      – Israel would be a much better neighbor if it wasn’t under constant harassment for the past 70 years, not to mention what happened before. The harassment has led to hard-wing leadership gaining deep traction.
      – Palestinians have been acting out of rage/desperation, another version of what Israelis feel. Their horrible outlook condition has enabled horrible leadership to take control. Hamas is the Gazans worst enemy.

      Its a crowded ugly neighborhood. Be ever thankful you don’t live there. I do think (hope) Iran might one day have better governance and rising secular culture. That goes for the US too.

    17. T HILL

      Hickory

      Concur.

    18. Alimbiquated

      T Hill
      The press is reporting that there was no intel that the Iranians were/are producing a nuclear weapon.
      Netanyahu, as I already mentioned, has been lying about this for decades. You seem to have swallowed the lie hook, line and sinker.

      This documents Netanyahu inventing things nearly thirty years ago: chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.bits.de/public/documents/iran/iranbackground032100.pdf

      See page 10, page 18. He was lying about it then, and he’s lying about it now. He’s finally found a US president braindead enough to believe him.

      Also note the comment on page 19:
      The situation has not been helped by scare reports and deliberate misinformation. For example, Israeli sources have claimed that Iran sought to buy the nuclear enrichment facilities that South Africa developed for its nuclear weapons program, although there is little evidence to support these reports.

      Trump is gullible and more likely to believe that last person he talked to than American intel. It’s the same “do your own research” ethos that convinced Cheney/Rumsfeld of the same lie about Iraq.

      It’s pretty hilarious that Vance says previous Mideast entanglements were caused by dumb presidents, but Trump is smart. The exact same dumb mistake is being repeated.

      If Trump hadn’t reneged on Obama’s nuclear treaty with Iran, none of this would have happened.

    19. Survivalist

      One thing I’ve noticed is that if all reasonable criticism of Israeli defense policy is labeled as anti semitism, then lots of peeps seem to stop giving a shit about anti semitism. Who the hell loses a PR war to f*cking Iran!? The greatest threat to Israeli national security is their own inept statecraft.

    20. Hickory

      You need to complete 3 components to deliver a nuclear weapon to its target-
      1. Weapon grade uranium. Standard nuclear power plants require about 3.8% level of enrichment, and the IAEA considers anything above 5% to be for a nuclear weapon program. Iran has a sizeable stockpile of 60% enrichment grade, and IAEA detected traces of 83.7%. The Iranian enrichment program is late in the ninth inning of this project. No one knows where the the high level product is being stored currently, at least publicly. But it is assumed that they have moved it, at least 400 kg.
      https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/status-irans-nuclear-program-1

      2. Producing a workable weapon. Unknown status (publicly), somewhere between early and late stage. I’d bet late stage since there is huge fervor, funding and brainpower devoted to this longterm project. North Korea got it done with much less resources almost 20 years ago and Pakistan 27 years ago- Operational bomb.

      3. Delivery mechanism. Iran has a very capable offensive long range ballistic missile program. And trucks or boats.

    21. Alimbiquated

      HICKORY —
      Good point and I’d like to add something to them.
      Iran does have a fairly advance ballistic missile program. Also I strongly suspect they could build a device that would trigger a nuclear explosion. It’s not that hard if you understand nuclear physics and can handle the materials. But they’ve never tested one which makes any claims that they have one nonsense.

      However, if they built a device like that it would probably weight several tons and be the size of an shipping container. They don’t have a missile that can launch a load like that and probably don’t have the technology to build a warhead that would fit their missiles.

      Incidentally, I think the same thing I probably true of North Korea. They have missiles and can trigger nuclear explosions, but may not have warheads.

      As for Israel, they have never tested a nuclear bomb, so I seriously doubt they have one. And why should they bother? Everyone thinks they have one, and that is deterrent enough. I have heard claims since the 70s based on exactly zero evidence that they have “about 200” warheads. Fake news always sounds more believable when you use exact numbers.

    22. Hickory

      Nucs that can go on cruise missiles are part of the arsenal of countries. I have no idea if that is much harder to produce than the big ones that go on bombers or ballistic missiles.

      A problem for Iran if they used a nuclear weapon on Israel is that they would kill many Palestinians as well. Perhaps they (the Islamic fundamentalists) would consider it a worthwhile trade-off?

      btw- the smallest nuclear device that US is known to have produced was way back in 1954- The Davy Crockett
      https://www.brookings.edu/the-davy-crockett/

    23. Matt Staben

      This is a USAF report on Israel’s nuke program. Read up on the Samson Option. Plenty of literature.

      They have ’em, I’m sure.

      https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA424783.pdf

    24. WeekendPeak

      You forgot the 4th component – the willingness to use it. The worry is that Iran does have people who are willing to use it vs other countries where that willingness is deemed to be less.
      rgds
      WP

    25. Hickory

      Yes, Important point.

    26. Alimbiquated

      And haha Pakistan definitely has Trump’s number.

      https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114717932061341718

      Such an embarrassment. But at least he’s figured out how to spell Nobel.

      As long as I include this awful link, I might as well point out that “truth” is the translation of the Russian word “pravda”. You know where Trump got the name, and probably the idea.

    27. JJHMAN

      An old Russian joke from the Brezhnev days:
      “There is no truth in Pravda and no news in Tass”.
      Tass, of course, is Russian for news.
      To stretch the analogies we might say there is no wisdom in Fox.

    28. Alimbiquated

      Well, so much for the peace prize. Also I guessed wrong about TACO.

      Netanyahu calls him “bold” and says he is”changing history” so I guess there’s that. And Republicans can high five each other for killing foreigners instead of facing the realities of Trump’s disastrous economic policies.

  7. Longview

    I seem to recall Trump saying he was going to keep the USA from getting involved in these conflicts, like Israel v Iran.

    What happened? Did his 5 minute attention span cause him to forget that point, or does he need a diversion so that Americans might not realize he hasn’t made the trade deals he was boasting about earlier?

    1. Alimbiquated

      In one of his darker moments Bob Marley sang:

      Once a man and twice a child,
      And everything’s just for a while.
      It seems like
      Total destruction’s the only solution.

      I don’t agree but I feel his pain.

    2. Andre The Giant

      Bob Marley, a great singer and obvious talent and a nice peaceful guy.

      Believed in a Rasfaraian GOD…JAH ……who wants you to sit around and smoke weed all day!

      Just like Bob and his son Ziggy.

      “People believe what they want to believe”

    3. Sheng Wu

      trump always carry out now

    4. Alimbiquated

      Also this:

    5. LeeG

      Donald didn’t want to miss out on the world stage. What he said and says isn’t consistent or represent any core values outside his need for attention. He can simply say it’s not a war and bomb Iran. He could not bomb and call it a war. Either way he gets attention and an opportunity to make more chaos and suffering. Like shutting down the queer option on the 688 National Suicide Line.

      https://abcnews.go.com/Health/trump-administration-close-lgbtq-suicide-hotline-program-month/story?id=122982945

  8. hightrekker

    “California passes Japan as fourth largest economy”

    Reality for our conservative friends?

    1. JJHMAN

      Does this represent good news for CA or bad news for Japan?
      Japan has the lowest birthrate in the G7 and a brutally anti-immigrant population.

    2. LeeG

      Neither, try a more illuminating question.

    3. JJHMAN

      Try a more illuminating response.

  9. Opritov Alexander

    It seems to me that there is a notion that in Russia there is a single government opinion on the foreign policy of the Russian Federation, strictly supported by government structures. This is not so, there are various groups of political interests and there are no government structures that would control them. I will separately note that the policy towards Ukraine is supported by the majority of society. Below I will post a link if anyone is interested with an interview in Russian with a Russian diplomat who worked for more than 20 years in the Middle East as an ambassador who had numerous personal meetings with such leaders of countries as Egypt, Algeria and Iraq.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hVstBCOHiE

  10. hightrekker

    Trump Appoints 22-Year-Old Ex-Gardener and Grocery
    Store Assistant to Lead U.S.
    Terror Prevention

    He could do worse I guess?

    1. WeekendPeak

      Are you thinking of Chauncey Gardiner by any chance?

    2. John Norris

      +1

  11. LeeG

    https://cdn.prod.dailykos.com/images/1448609/large/Screenshot_20250623_070048_Chrome.jpg?1750690302

    Donald is watching

  12. D C

    New posts are up.

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/short-term-energy-outlook-june-2025/

    and

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-june-25-2025/

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