The EIA has published International Energy Statistics with Crude + Condensate numbers for September 2014. As most of you know I only follow Crude + Condensate because I believe that biofuels and natural gas liquids should not be part of the peak oil equation.
The data in all charts is thousand barrels per day with the last data point September 2014.
World oil production was up 1,270,000 barrels per day in September. This was somewhat of a shocker. I had expected production to be up about .9 mbd but not this much.
Non-OPEC nations accounted for 833,000 bp/d of the increase.
And OPEC nations accounted for 438,000 bpd of the increase. The EIA said OPEC produced 32,734,000 barrels per day of C+C in September. OPEC’s “secondary sources” said OPEC produced 30,560,000 barrels of Crude Only in September. OPEC’s crude only production had dropped to 30,053,000 bpd in November, or over half a million barrels per day lower.
Just who were the big gainers and losers in September? They are listed below in thousand barrels per day. All others had no change. “Other” is the combined production of all small producers.
Canada was the big gainer, up 420,000 bpd. I have no idea how the EIA came up with such an increase from Canada. Perhaps someone can enlighten us with a comment.
That huge spike upward just looks strange. I am not yet ready to accept it and I expect it to be revised downward in the next report.
The number 2 gainer, Iraq was up in September but according to the OPEC MOMR they showed little change in October and November.
The huge gain in UK production was just a return from a lot of maintenance downtime.
The number 4 gainer, Libya, according to the OPEC MOMR was up in September and up a little more in October but dropped 250,000 bpd in November.
The number 5 big gainer in September was the USA, up 168 bpd in September. I believe the US still has some increase in production to come but this will be the last big gainer. That is the last increase of over 100,000 barrels per day for a long while…if ever.
For what it’s worth, JODI also has the US up by 170,000 bpd in September, but JODI has the US down by 155,000 bpd in October. The EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly is due out Tuesday December 30th with the USA’s October production numbers. However the EIA’s Monthly Energy Review is already out with November production numbers. There they have US production up by 91,000 bpd in October and up another 108,000 bpd in November. So they are already trying to make a liar out of me.
However the Monthly Energy Review is notorious for over estimating US production numbers. Their data is revised every month, usually downward. The Petroleum Supply Monthly is always far more accurate as they count production from each individual state. Though their numbers are also often revised.
China’s slight increase was nothing out of the ordinary, just up and down noise that can be expected from a mature producer. Daqing, China’s super giant is in decline.
Brazil is one nation that has been showing a steady increase for the last few months. But expect them to level out at just a bit above their current production in the next few months.
India’s gain was just a recovery from August’s huge decline. It still looks like they are in a slow decline.
Russia, up slightly in September but headed lower in 2015, or so everyone believes, including Russia.
Kazakhstan has again fallen below 1.6 million bpd. They will be lucky to hold their current production level until Kashagan comes on line sometime in 2017.
Is this the last hurrah for world oil production? Will we look back and see September 2014 as the all time peak in world oil production? Perhaps but the IEA has world total liquids up slightly in October but down by 340,000 bpd in November.
Rig count: US rig count dwn 35. Canadian rig count down 135.
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