Dean Fantazzini has provided me with updates to Texas Oil and Natural Gas estimates, the data shifted about a year ago so I use the most recent 13 months of Texas RRC data along with the “all vintage” data estimate which uses all data from Jan 2014 to April 2017 for oil and April 2014 to April 2017 for condensate. The most recent EIA estimate is shown for comparison. In April 2017 the EIA estimate is 3345 kb/d, the 13 month corrected estimate is 3443 kb/d, and the all vintage estimate is 3572 kb/d.
The data in the table below is for Texas Natural Gas output (million cubic feet per day) .
Eagle Ford output estimates through April 2017 are from the EIA in the chart below.
Permian LTO output in Texas was estimated by using New Mexico Permian output from shaleprofile.com and deducting this from the EIA’s Permian basin estimate, this gives us data through Feb 2017. In order to estimate March and April 2017 Texas Permian output I used Dean Fantazinni’s 13 month estimate multiplied by the percentage of Texas output from the Permian basin (Districts 7C, 8, and 8A) based on the latest Texas RRC data. From this we can determine that from Jan 2015 to Sept 2016, TX Permian conventional output was about 486 kb/d on average and then fell to a lower level of 437 kb/d from Dec 2016 to Feb 2017.
If we assume conventional output continues to average about 437 kb/d from the TX Permian basin in March and April, we can estimate TX Permian LTO output in March and April. I have also assumed that the New Mexico Permian basin output estimates at shale profile are relatively accurate, which may not be the case. Those with access to IHS data could check to confirm whether this is true. A chart with the Texas Permian Basin output estimate is below.
Using the Permian and Eagle Ford estimates and the 13 month Texas C+C estimate from Dean Fantazzini’s data, we can estimate Texas conventional output (Texas C+C minus TX Permian and Eagle Ford), which is shown in the chart below.
Conventional output seems to have stabilized at an average of about 874 kb/d from May 2016 to April 2017 after falling about 120 kb/d from Dec 2014 to May 2016. Conventional output is about 25% of Texas C+C output in April 2017, 42% of output is Permian Basin LTO, and 33% of output is from the Eagle Ford.