This is part of Xcel Energy trying to be carbon-free by 2050. They estimate this will power around 100 to 125K homes.
“Xcel Energy-Colorado has selected the development company Mortenson to build the 500-megawatt Cheyenne Ridge Wind Project on the state’s Eastern Plains.
Mortenson and Xcel Energy said in a statement Thursday that the project, to be built over about 100,000 acres in Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties, is scheduled for completion in December 2020. Turbine manufacturer Vestas will supply a total of 229 turbines for the wind farm.”
Atmospheric experiment to cool the earth to begin within the year.
The Solar Radiation Management Governance Initiative, they call themselves.
I don’t recall a public debate or authorization.
I suppose this human thing is just one big experiment.
“Atmospheric experiment to cool the earth to begin within the year.”
Article is about a “Working Paper” basically a proposal that International bodies begin developing a framework to govern the atmospheric experiments. Not seeing the timeframe you are referring to. And essentially they are saying – this is going to happen anyway – we might as well start developing these governing bodies now.
“First sun-dimming experiment will test a way to cool Earth”
Perhaps misleading, as so many headlines are, but the process of exploring this mechanism is well underway.
Great article Hickory and they do spend a lot of time in the article talking about the political / ethical concerns, and they even mention another non-profit organization promoting and outlining the formation of a governing body.
I know this sounds all New World Order-like, but it really is a case of a global issue that can only be addressed globally.
the reality, talked about in the article, is that once humans get desperate enough they will try virtually anything in a last ditch hope of saving themselves. They’ve watched and internalized movies like Armageddon. Better to start collecting some data now to avoid some of the worst case scenarios for reactions.
I’m assuming most people on the forum are like me and think these geoengineering attempts have almost no chance of succeeding for longer than a few years. Especially now that peak oil is beginning to hit hard in terms of excess energy available to society.
Trouble is it won’t be addressed globally. One nation (on a list of 1) will decide it needs to be done to continue BAU and all others will suffer the consequences. No thought given to potential reductions in solar and wind output. No thought given to natural warming processes that have already been triggered. Why spend money on coastal protection when warming will be stopped in its tracks, besides, money for climate mitigation will be scarce as billions are pumped into the sky.
NAOM
Agree with your comments twocats.
A lot of good thinking is going into this issue at these organizations, and I suspect within the decade this will be more common talk, and will be a prez debate topic (getting plenty of sounds bites) in 2023.
The whole issue of governance and decision making on this is very troubling. Who will get a seat at the table? Who will stop an individual country or corporation from undertaking their own measures, be it Russia or the Gates Foundation, for example?
However, when I think on this, I realize that major environmental ‘experiments’ throughout history, such as the near complete deforestation of Europe and N.America that had happened primarily prior to coal, have been undertaken without any governance or thoughtful deliberation. The experiment of flooding the world with 7.7 Billion ‘sapiens’ did not go through the ethics board approval process.
So, perhaps this deliberation will be breaking the mold in some way.
Its a messy game to play.
Would be interesting to see the results of a global dimming program coinciding with a couple of large volcanic eruptions.
Anyone ever play with a yo-yo and have the string untie?
“Anyone ever play with a yo-yo and have the string untie?”
Good analogy. Expresses my concerns well.
China Coal production to increase by 100 million tonnes in 2019
I was not aware that China ever had a green veneer.
some people did
Not really.
The debate is primarily between people who think that the US and Europe should proceed with a transition towards wind & solar, and those who disagree, and are using Chinese GHG emissions as an excuse to delay.
So, those who point to Chinese efforts to build wind & solar are simply arguing that China is very far from doing nothing. And, when you look at China’s overall situation, I think it’s reasonable to argue that there is no excuse there for inaction in the US or Europe (or elsewhere): China is doing at least as much as OECD countries.
Of course, what China does is really not very relevant: almost all countries will be better off if they maximize their efforts to transition from oil and FF, even if their efforts are unilateral. We see that recognition in Germany, for instance: wind & solar give them greater energy security, cleaner and (overall) more reliable power, and saves money in the long run.
Secondarily, some of China’s efforts towards renewables and EVs are encouraging and even a little inspiring, and people like to highlight bits of hopeful development – one needs occasional rays of light in the dark FF smog…
Nick G
What you have said is nonsense.
I am very pleased that the US and Europe is reducing Co2 emissions.
China’s dictatorship is only interested in keeping themselves in power and to do that they must keep people happy to prevent a revolution.
If they need to build 300 new coal fired power stations around the world they will do it and not care about the consequences.
China is undoing all the good work that the US and Europe have done to reduce Co2. Considering what we know NOW about the melting of Greenland etc their policies are nothing short of genocide.
I didn’t say that China is doing the optimum thing. I said that China is very roughly doing as much as the US.
Compare the growth rates for wind, solar and EVs for the US vs China.
Nick G
China is not doing the same.
How can increasing CO2 emissions which is all that counts be the same as decreasing CO2 emissions.
It looks like the Master Plan is winning and the disabled democracies are becoming irrelevant partly due to insular thinking.
If history is any teacher, master plans always fail. However, we do not have the time or energy to play that game.
What happened to the 1.5 degree emission target?
CHINESE BELT AND ROAD PLAN ‘MAY RESULT IN 2.7C WARMING’
“If B&RCs (Belt and Road countries) follow historical carbon-intense growth patterns… it may be enough to result in a 2.7 degree path, EVEN IF THE REST OF THE WORLD ADHERES TO 2 DEGREE LEVELS OF EMISSIONS.”
What China is doing would be frightening enough without global warming.
With global warming already taking effect it is simply mindless
I’m not going to get started on this, but let’s just say we are all entitled to our own opinions regarding climate change.
Hmm.
Are we all entitled to our own opinions about evolution and natural selection?
Of course. I don’t think there’s ever only one completely correct answer to these kind of matters.
Total bullshit. There is only one correct answer to evolution and natural selection. It’s a fact. And there is only one correct answer to climate change. It’s a fact.
Facts On The Ground
Richard, thanks in part to anthropogenic stuff– like climate change, or global warming if you will– ‘natural selection’ might wipe many more species out, including the ‘anthros’, themselves.
Their opinions, of course, will vary while they are still alive, with some realizing, before they too kick the bucket, that the only ‘opinion’ that ultimately matters is Mother Nature’s.
Incidentally, due to Dorian’s mere remnants up here in Nova Scotia, I took a cold shower in the relative dark. The electricity, for the second or maybe third day in some parts, is still out in many areas of this small city. And that’s from the remnants of a hurricane, nowhere near its full force. Many trees and their branches and street-/business-signs, etc., were downed or messed-up.
As I’ve said to some people, if only in partial jest, ‘Welcome to a taste of the future.’.
Trust me; you can’t drive an electric car or most any car for that matter over or even around some downed trees I’ve seen, some still entangled in the grid’s wires. (I did it with my bike though, while others did it on foot. I went under one tree and around another.)
That said, we are not going to be resilient going forward if all we are preoccupied with are electric cars and solar panels. We need to look much more at self-reliance and resilience. Increasing ‘anthronatural’ effects like hurricanes ‘on steroids’ are going to make that increasingly obvious and relevant, even to those whose opinions don’t quite yet jive with reality.
FWIW, I’m posting this smack downtown at a McDonald’s restaurant with the section of town right across the street still dark.
The stars look much nicer and more numerous, incidentally, and despite my cold shower, I quite appreciate this little demo. For example, it is making me seriously rethink shrinking the time-frame of the development of a microecovillage I have in mind, as well as upping my own personal resilience and the resilience of those around me, at least those who aren’t too busy in the denial of these kinds of things.
Richard, Scientists work toward understanding science, not choosing to believe uncertain theories.
Richard says- “I’m not going to get started on this, but”
but he then does get started on it, right away. Tricky.
Richard, you have opinions on gravity?
That was extremely controversial at first.
How about the idea where the sun is the center of the solar system.
The Church sure didn’t like that opinion!
What does your guidance counselor allow you to consider as fact?
A natural order is a stable order. There is no chance that gravity will cease to function tomorrow, even if people stop believing in it. In contrast, an imagined order is always in danger of collapse, because it depends upon myths, and myths vanish once people stop believing in them.
The one hope I have is Halloween. Unlike Christmas, which is mostly family oriented, or New Years which just moves a lot of money to alcohol producers and nightclubs, Halloween shows how a societal mindset can completely sidestep everyday culture.
Normally if strangers show up on the doorstep demanding or requesting food, they are rebuffed and/or the police are called. But not on Halloween! Here strangers show up on doorsteps by the droves and they collect food and some money too. With a minor amount of effort they get enough calories to last for days and some pocket change too. All for free, no police or fights involved. It’s all smiles and good times.
The system of private ownership goes back to a more tribal sharing at least one night a year.
Why?
I agree, Halloween is the best holiday.
You have all that Cabbages For Christ holidays, and then the nationalism– so Halloween is refreshing.
Nationalism and religion are super big problems.
Not so fast:
“The word Halloween or Hallowe’en dates to about 1745[32] and is of Christian origin.[33] The word “Hallowe’en” means “Saints’ evening”.[34] It comes from a Scottish term for All Hallows’ Eve (the evening before All Hallows’ Day).[35] In Scots, the word “eve” is even, and this is contracted to e’en or een. Over time, (All) Hallow(s) E(v)en evolved into Hallowe’en. Although the phrase “All Hallows'” is found in Old English “All Hallows’ Eve” is itself not seen until 1556.
Personally, I like Thanksgiving, just for the grub.
I agree, Thanksgiving is not bad.
Halloween, a least for me, doesn’t have religious overtones.
But its history of superstition and ignorance is there to observe.
“Religion is Poison.”
Guess who?
Fossil fuels increasingly offer a poor return on energy investment
Source:University of Leeds
Summary:Researchers have calculated the EROI for fossil fuels over a 16 year period and found that at the finished fuel stage, the ratios are much closer to those of renewable energy sources — roughly 6:1, and potentially as low as 3:1 in the case of electricity. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190711114846.htm
From the link I posted above
“As a result, the report says, the long-term break-even oil price for gasoline to remain competitive as a source of mobility is $9 – $10 per barrel, and for diesel $17 – $19 a barrel .”
OFM
The trouble with wind and solar is you need backup. In winter time nights are 16 hours long and often there is little wind. Building enough batteries just to power all the cities and towns is not feasible, let alone charging every car.
The UK has 21 gigawatts of installed wind capacity.
Gas and nuclear provide consistent power which keeps prices low.
“The trouble with wind and solar is you need backup”
Well, yeh!!
Its a problem to deal with, but every Kwhr produced replaces other problematic sources of energy.
No source is without “problems”. Big ones.
Its a choice between problems.
Sure, I have posted several times that the EV/PV is the biggest bang for the buck (other than avoidance).
However, don’t get all aquiver over that. Hook an EV to a natural gas electric generator and it’s worse for climate change than petroleum for the next couple of generations at least (the critical period of global warming, I hear).
So unless we focus on getting the PV/wind energy directly to the vehicles we are literally spinning our wheels and living more fantasy.
But who needs an Arctic with ice and snow? Who wouldn’t like land temps 4C or 6C higher? Cuts heating bills right?
@Dennis
The thread ‘Open Thread Non-Petroleum, August 26, 2019’ is not updating new/read comments. The other threads seem to be working correctly so it looks like there is a bug at the server end. Maybe you can check into it.
NAOM
Thanks NAOM. I am not having that problem on these newer threads.
Seems to work for me.
Might need more detail on the nature of the problem.
I have posted an update over there, looks FF update related, will look tomorrow PM.
Temporary fix for anyone troubled by it, edit the cookie expiration date for that thread by increasing it by a day or two.
NAOM
Ok, the fix is in – I hope!
Firefox
Open Hamburger
Select ‘Preferences’
Select ‘Privacy & Security’
Scroll down to ‘Cookies and Site Data’
Select ‘Manage Permissions’
Add ‘http:/peakoilbarrel.com’ to ‘Address of web site’
Click on ‘Allow’
Click on ‘Save Changes’
That should do it, I’ll need a day or 2 to confirm.
NAOM
Thank you, thank you.
NuSTAR Spots Mysterious Source of Ultraluminous X-Rays in Nearby Spiral Galaxy
Less than 1% of the US population can read a power meter and relate to complexities of rate schedules. 10% eff lighting is a Yugh transfer of wealth from the sheeple to the investor class. What about debt do you not understand? Supereffecient solid state lighting = grid freedom. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-09-07/its-lightbulb-liberation-day
Just swapped a 20W halogen spot out for a 6W LED, better light and LOTS more of it. Incandescent are crap!
NAOM
“Trump is siding with manufacturers that want to keep selling outdated, energy-wasting lightbulbs”
It’s ridiculous, but it also doesn’t matter now. The regulation worked and there is a fully matured market of LED products that offer high efficiency, lower maintenance, and better light. The desirability of incandescents becomes limited to edge cases, say where you actually want heat as much or more than light.
Trump can roll back CAFE standards also, but who will still want an ICE that gets 35 mpg and has a 200k mile vehicle lifetime when a 120 mpge EV with a million mile powertrain, 300 miles of range, and the ability to charge 200 miles of range in 15 minutes can be had for an equal cost? That era is fast approaching.
I agree, it’s in the rear view mirror now.
Today, I changed a failed 11W CFL with a 3W LED. Just slightly less light but looks a lot better. Another 8W saved.
“Edgar Johnson: ‘And this is my wife, Cynthia…’
Mathilda Welling: ‘My pleasure. I feel that we are going to be such wonderful neighbors.’
Ben Welling: ‘Looks like you lost more than your shirt.’
Edgar: ‘Ya… But we’ve joined The Small House Movement… As you can see.’
Ben: ‘Willingly?’
Edgar: ‘Of course not.’ “
Freaked out about the future of the planet? Don’t let fear ruin your finances
Alicia Adamczyk
“Do ETFs, REITs and mutual funds still make sense to invest in if the planet won’t survive ’til our retirement?”
So read an Instagram DM from a friend earlier this year. The reasoning was fairly clear: A recent report from the United Nations indicates that climate change is harming the world’s food supply to a catastrophic degree, while a 2018 U.N. panel found that humans have 12 years to significantly reduce carbon emissions to ensure a “safe and sustainable” planet. The Amazon rainforest — AKA the lungs of the planet — is currently on fire, which could speed up climate change.
It might seem hyperbolic, but the Insta-messenger is far from the only member of Generation Y worried about the health of the planet to the extent that it affects their outlook on the future. Almost 90% of millennials recognize that man-made climate change is happening, leading some to experience what the American Psychological Association refers to as “eco-anxiety.”
“Gradual, long-term changes in climate can also surface a number of different emotions, including fear, anger, feelings of powerlessness, or exhaustion,” the APA noted in a 2017 study on the mental health effects of climate change.
With the planet at stake, who can blame you for not saving 10% of your income for a future you’re not sure will arrive?
While it’s easy to feel powerless, Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Nature Conservancy at UCLA, tells CNBC Make It that he has a more positive outlook on the state of things than what is typically portrayed in the media.
At just 30 years old, Swain is squarely within the demographic that seems to be losing hope. Indeed, he says weather events will become increasingly extreme, and humans will have to adapt to new ways of living. But he wants to make it very clear that now is the time to take action that will have “tremendous impact” on the Earth for “centuries and millennia to come.” Especially in wealthier countries, like the United States, which have historically emitted the largest amounts of greenhouse gases.
In fact, he says if anything, he and his fellow climate scientists are more energized than ever. Now is exactly the time to invest more, not less: In the future we want, in policies we believe in. And that definitely includes saving up for a sizable emergency fund.
Emergency funds are a GREAT idea.
But I strongly recommend that anybody who is really concerned that society might collapse within his own lifetime SERIOUSLY consider WHAT KIND OF FUNDS he wishes to use in his EMERGENCY fund.
SOME actual cash will be great, unless the use of it is outlawed. You ought to be able to get rid of it, at a tremendous profit, buying stuff that WILL be useful later, from desperate people, before THEY realize they need to get rid of it too, lol.
A little bird keeps whispering in my ear that stocks will be next to worthless, that money you may have loaned won’t be repaid, that your new car isn’t an investment but a horrible liability, etc.
When and if the shit is really and truly in the fan, a thousand nice first aid kits will be worth as much as a thousand wedding bands, but right now….. you can get a dozen decent first aid kits for the price of just one wedding band.
If you really do believe you see it coming, buy all the diesel fuel, gasoline, non perishable food, weapons, medical supplies, etc you can put your hands on and hold onto without being robbed.
If the shit really does hit the fan, you don’t need to worry about spare parts for your tractor. There will be PLENTY of tractors around that will run like new……. if you have fuel.
You can always resell this sort of stuff, at no more than a modest loss, if you buy it at the going prices.
There’s no huge downside, but the upside is literally almost limitless.
Democrats bite on burgers and straws — and Republicans feast
By CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO and HOLLY OTTERBEIN
Democrats’ verbal targeting of everything from plastic straws to cheeseburgers is stoking fears among anti-Trump forces that they’re unwittingly playing into Republican culture wars.
Conservative recrimination over the threatened wholesale takeover of society came swiftly after CNN’s marathon climate change forum with Democratic presidential hopefuls this week. Republicans gleefully painted the field as a bunch of out-of-touch elites: In one video, the Republic National Committee shared brief clips from the candidates, including Joe Biden, appearing to advocate a shutdown of coal-burning plants and taking gas-burning vehicles off the road “as rapidly as we can.”
The message: There are no moderates running for the nomination.
Andrew Yang, in the same web ad, said, “We’re going to be OK if the vast majority of the world goes vegetarian immediately.”
“I just don’t even know what to do with ‘Burgergate,’” said Colin Strother, a veteran Democratic strategist from the cattle-rearing state of Texas. “It is such a fringe position that is out of step with an overwhelming majority of Americans — and let us not forget that a pretty wide swath of the country including Texas and the ‘Breadbasket’ are major beef producers.
“In fact,” Strother added, “the earliest primary state of Iowa sold almost a half a billion bushels of corn specifically to feed livestock last year. We have so many very serious issues facing our country that I struggle to understand how burgers even make the top-20 list.”
And yet, in her CNN town hall, Kamala Harris was asked whether she supports changing the food pyramid to reduce red meat consumption. She does. And, amid calling for prohibitions on hydraulic fracturing and offshore drilling, the California senator also came out for a ban on plastic straws, even as she acknowledged the inferiority of paper straws.
Bernie Sanders similarly waded into fraught territory with his riff on the spiraling world population. He was asked by a teacher from New Milford, Conn., whether he’d be “courageous enough” to make the politically “poisonous topic” of population control a key feature of his plan to address climate change. “Yes,” Sanders replied.
“The whole straw-burger debate reminds me of Sheryl Crow telling Americans to reuse toilet paper,” said Bryan Lanza, a former Trump campaign official. “It didn’t pass the smell test.”
Republicans against facts.
Democrats against cows.
Cool. I didn’t know the cow lobby was so strong, maybe the pigs and chickens got together with them. No updates from Far Side lately so we are on our own to find the truth.
It’s the nature of politicians of all stripes in a desperate race for higher office to talk like idiots during the primary season. They believe they HAVE to, these days, to curry favor with the hard core elements of their party in order to emerge as leaders early in the season. They’re probably right, at least part of the time.
Unfortunately for the D’s, the R’s aren’t bringing on a new generation of new leaders this time around. They’re satisfied or stuck, as you please, with what they’ve got, and there won’t be much primary action on the R side at all, except for some open seats due to retirements.
It’s also an extremely unfortunate fact, for the D’s in particular, and the people of this country, and the world in general, that the larger part of the people who think of themselves as environmentalists are utterly IGNORANT of the real day to day workings of the world, and talk about fixing things like little kids proposing that their parents spend money they haven’t got and can’t borrow.
Yes we need, we MUST, go away from oil and TO renewable energy, etc, but only a fucking MORON talks about change on this scale as if it’s not a HUGE job, one that will take a VERY LONG TIME, and one that CAN’T be rushed, short term.
In terms of the way we farm and eat today, yes we must eventually do things VERY differently, but only a FUCKING IGNORAMOUS could possibly believe there’s even a snowball’s chance on a red hot stove that we can do so NOW, or even in a generation. We might get a pretty good start in TWO generations, minimum, and only then if the REAL WORLD FORCES our hand.
So long as the industrial agricultural system continues to work, we will continue to use it, because not one young woman, or old woman , or man, who lives in a nice place in town will ever VOLUNTARILY give up that life style. The ones with guns will use them to counter anybody coming with a gun to TELL them they’re moving to the country to raise beans.
And it’s EVER so unfortunate that the people who are most likely INCLINED, PREDISPOSED, and IGNORANT enough to believe in such fantasies……… are younger college educated people who make a lot of money.
People like my NEIGHBORS who dropped out of ELEMENTARY school know better, because they live and work in the REAL PHYSICAL WORLD, rather than spending their time cocooned in offices shoving electrons and paper around, and back inside their alternate home cocoon where they get everything delivered magically to them. It’s easy to believe in fantasies when you only see the sun on the way to and from cocoons.
Caelan will NEVER answer the simplest question such as how I can get my apples from where I live to a city only a hundred miles away without trucks, or at least without trains. I sure as hell couldn’t ever haul them that far in a horse drawn wagon, and there’s no navigable river near where I live.
Change on the scale politically naive environmentalists talk about is possible…… but only decades down the road, generations down the road.
Let us all pray to our favorite Rock or Snake or whatever that the D’s who eventually win primaries are smart enough to get up in front of the cameras and the crowds and say look, in principle we were right to be talking about such things, because they needed to be talked about, but we aren’t running on doing away with hamburgers or plastic straws, lol.
There are free hamburgers and soft drinks available for you right over there…wrapped in paper, and served in paper cups with plastic straws. We exaggerate just like the orange baboon, when it suits us…… but we aren’t SERIOUS when we say such things. We admit it later, own up to it, later, and LAUGH WITH you about it, rather than insulting your intelligence by insisting we DIDN’T flat out LIE to you about such things…. like the orange orangutan.
And as far as answering those who will ask, what happens if we DON’T change faster?
They know already, if they’re INFORMED environmentalists. We’re going to collectively crash and burn of course.
I find it amusing that they ask me such a question, given that they make fun( gentle fun, true) of me for believing SOME people in SOME places MAY pull thru while still preserving the basics of industrial civilization.
I’ll be too old to do more than LEER at them, and make uncalled for male pig remarks, but if the crash comes before I’m gone, I’ll be glad to provide a home for a couple of good looking younger women with a couple of small kids. I can and will LOOK at the women, and play with the kids, assuming some man doesn’t come along and murder me.
The share of wind and solar power in the energy mix on Australia’s main grid hit a new peak on Saturday – a share of 40.9 per cent, and also reached a new record for the share of all renewables, including hydro.
The new level was reached between 11am and 12pm on Saturday, at which point a total of 9,696MW of rooftop solar, utility scale solar and wind was contributing to the grid, a 40.9 per cent share of generation. It might have been even higher but for some curtailment of solar farms at the time.
I have a feeling that Australia will be among one of, if not the first of the G20 countries to achieve over 90% of their electricity from renewable sources. It’s only a matter of time and the comparative performance of renewable vs. thermal plants over the coming Australian summer should be interesting.
I wonder how long it will take the Aussies to build new or retrofit existing housing and other buildings to use dirt cheap solar power at night so they can shut down nearly all their coal fired geneation.
It’s not that hard to do. A few tons of concrete or other high density material, just crushed stone, inside a house can be chilled enough during the day so that no air conditioning will be needed even on a very hot night, etc.
Or to switch night time loads to day time. Putting twice as big a pump on the job of pumping water up into a water tower will get the job done during the day, rather than it taking 24 hours, etc.
Islandboy says
“I have a feeling that Australia will be among one of, if not the first of the G20 countries to achieve over 90% of their electricity from renewable sources.”
Islandboy can you please send me some of what you are having?
South Australia uses hardly anything but has 100 gas backup.
On an annual basis black coal and gas provide 80% of electricity.
I have said this before in order for countries to stop burning fossils fuels they all have to spend between 800% and 1200% more than they are doing at the moment.
Hugo,
Within twenty years, wind and solar power are going to be so cheap WHEN THE WIND AND SUN ARE COOPERATING that nobody will pay for any more coal and gas than is necessary for backup.
For years my Dad kept just one vehicle, a fuel thirsty pickup. It sufficed for all his needs. Then the day came when he bought a car which which used HALF as much gasoline as the truck . He went from using the truck every day to using it once or twice a week. Sometimes he didn’t use the truck at all for a couple of weeks at a time.
All that coal fired and gas fired capacity you talk about will eventually be so expensive to maintain and run, compared to wind and solar power, that it will be like that truck.
As a percentage of GDP spending 0.3% or 0.9% is simply nowhere near what is needed.
Most and maybe even all of what’s spent on upstream oil and gas will serve only to MAINTAIN CURRENT PRODUCTION LEVELS.
How many oil wells drilled this year will be producing in 2050, and how much, compared to their initial production?
A solar farm finished in 2020 will still be going more or less full tilt in 2050.Ditto today’s wind farm.
Today’s solar farm may well be producing MORE electricity in 2050 than it does in 2021 when it’s brand new, because this this years new panels may be swapped out ten or twenty years down the road for more efficient ones that cost LESS, not more. Old panels will be sold in the used market.
When old turbines reach the end of their working life at twenty to thirty years, they will be replaced with new ones that generate more electricity than the old ones……..
Solar and wind farms can be refurbished to better than new condition for a rather minor fraction of the cost of building new ones.
The RED QUEEN isn’t exactly your BEST FRIEND, if you happen to be in the oil and gas biz.
People in the renewable energy biz need not pay her any mind at all.
The only REAL problem with renewable electricity is the intermittency and storage issue.
My guess is that a lot of countries will still be burning a good bit of coal and gas to back up wind and solar power in 2050.
Don’t worry. Human ingenuity will break the laws of physics.
Maybe not.
But barring WWIII or something of that kind, my personal guess is that there won’t be any substantial die off of the total human population, in percentage terms,until somewhat later.
But I wouldn’t be surprised at all if there are some really major localized human population crashes before 2050.
The thing about a major local die off is that it reduces the pressure on the local food and water supply substantially for a generation or even two or three generations.
Mine is the farmer’s perspective. We’re used to dealing with catastrophes on the local and regional level, even on scale of the Dust Bowl once in a while. I don’t mean we are necessarily personally or individually accustomed to such events , but in general terms they are old hat to us.
We lost everything, locally, in our orchards , two or three times over the course of my life, and every eight to ten years we run in the hole due to bad weather.
Other local guys have had to sell out their entire herd of cows due to a lack of feed at least twice during my lifetime.
OFM
The local catastrophes that you talk about are very distressing to the people involved. However once past farmers could always buy new cattle and start again.
With over fishing, we are seeing for the first time ever, the total destruction of fish on a global scale.
Already Europe is being overwhelmed with Africans illegally trying to get here, things will just get worse and there won’t be enough food for everyone.
and millions of people cannot afford to buy a home.
People will not die quietly, governments will go to war to secure, fish, food, water or they will be overthrown
Back atcha Hugo,
I have posted here on numerous occasions that people who are migrating as the consequence of famines, war, and such other disasters will at some not too distant future time be met at national borders with men behind fences who WILL shoot to kill.
It’s hard to say how long it will be before such fences are commonplace.
So far the European countries targeted by immigrants are succeeding reasonably well in intercepting them and turning them back, admitting a token few of course.
So far, in modern times, fences have been built to keep people IN.
Within the next decade or two, some will be built to keep people OUT, and I don’t mean just at the USA/Mexican border.
I have never said that collapse is a picnic.
But I continue to maintain that it is more likely to be piecemeal over some years than sudden and global, and that some people in some places may pull thru more or less whole, at least to the extent they have electricity, water and sewer, cops, etc.
Hey Hugo,
If it comes to walls, you are going to need one to circle London, to keep all those urbanites in. Which side of it would you find yourself on?
Walls aren’t necessarily physical.
The super wealthy generally already have themselves walled off.
Although, about 8 yrs Bill Gates stood in line waiting for me and my wife to finish our meal and vacate our table at the local Mexican restaurant. Also saw him with his kids at the drive-up Burger joint nearby. He is more out and about than most of the rest, who tend to heavily isolate themselves from the rest of us commoners.
OFM said “My guess is that a lot of countries will still be burning a good bit of coal and gas to back up wind and solar power in 2050”
That is a possibility and with the current mindset a probable outcome. Of course, long before that time the general case of overshoot and limits to growth will be in more than obvious play and make all current civilizational probabilities a moot point.
As long as people continue to be destructive to the environment, the other species and themselves the outcome is inevitable and obvious. Does not matter what political party is elected or how much renewable energy we install.
The only question that needs to be answered “Is the earth I leave behind better or at least as good as the earth into which I was born?”
The answer to that has been a collective no for at least several hundred years, probably several thousand. The results are obvious, the current culture is headed for a crash, one of the largest in history. In fact history itself could end.
Leaving behind a wrecked, toxic, dead world is not anything anyone should aim for, yet in general that is the direction. Meanwhile industry is wrecking the population, so they have little incentive or ability to act.
I tend to focus on trends and where they lead. If you look at the UK for example, how did it come to pass that the UK produced 30% of it’s electricity in 2018 from renewable sources, up from 14% in 2013? Where is that trend heading?
You can look at the trends in other markets and renewable sources are growing their share of production in many of them. Despite the hostile governments in places like Australia and the US, renewable energy growth is surprisingly robust, driven by continually falling LCOE from renewable sources. If renewables are being embraced at current costs, what is going to happen when the costs halve? What happens if they halve again? Solar appears to be heading towards a price of less than one cent per kWh of generated electricity. What is going to compete with that in places like the southwestern US, Australia, the Middle East and North Africa?
Hugo wrote: “I have said this before in order for countries to stop burning fossils fuels they all have to spend between 800% and 1200% more than they are doing at the moment.”
Based on the falling costs, multiple of what countries need to spend to stop burning fossil fuels will keep falling. Who knows? Maybe in anther decade the amount that is being spent now will buy enough renewable energy and storage to get the job done over the following decade.
I was struck by the presentation on exponential growth by Prof. Al Bartlett (Arithmetic, Population and Energy – a talk by Al Bartlett). At first you don’t notice the item that is growing, then you notice it but, it appears insignificant, then it gets more commonplace until you are left wondering how it came to be dominant. Ignore the trends all you want. We will see who has the last laugh!
Islandboy,
“At first you don’t notice the item that is growing, then you notice it but, it appears insignificant, then it gets more commonplace until you are left wondering how it came to be dominant.”
You mean like population increase or global warming or sea level raise or environmental destruction?
BTW Research, described in Scientific American, demonstrates that climate scientists, far from exaggerating the threat of climate change, have underestimated its pace and severity. That must fit in nicely with your thinking? Is climate change exhibiting exponential growth? Will we be left “wondering how it came to be dominant”?
Islandboy
Firstly UK renewable production is not 30% it is 20%. The burning of biomass is extremely dubious to say the least.
This is just deforestation given an ecological front.
Some time ago I found a website that showed how fast we needed to cut CO2 emissions for every year peak was delayed after 2015 I think.
If peak were next year we would have to cut CO2 emission by something like 4% each year.
When you consider the increase in electricity consumption and that CO2 from deforestation is often not included then the task becomes ever more difficult.
Consider this. If the Poles and Greenland are melting now with CO2 levels of 410ppm. In order to stop that melting we obviously need to reduce that level of CO2. In other words become Co2 negative within the next 15 year at the very most.
The cost obviously keeps going up because we have failed to do enough in the last 20 years.
On September 8th the Arctic Ice Concentration looked like this. On this diagram only the bright white is contiguous ice, the rest is broken. Dark blue is open water. Light blue is mixed and so on.
Just so one can see the 100 percent ice pack better I image processed the diagram.
Western Arctic sea ice, the bit with Victoria Island in it, can be seen at link below for current and historical sea ice data for same week from 1981 to 2019.
Steven, Trump uses a black sharpy and you use an orange one.
Same false narrative.
Sometimes we forget that scientists have been working on these predicaments for a long time. Also, in the rose colored glasses world there are a lot of “solutions” presented that really are more like taking the yellow-brick road to see the wizard of Oz.
In reality, like in the story, a whole empire has to crumble.
Back in 2010, maybe there was a bit of reality seeping in.
I find it refreshing to hear a professor of atmospheric sciences come up with a solid correlation that still holds almost 10 years later. Rarely do climate scientists look realistically at civilization.
Energy growth just keeps going up, despite efficiency gains and business maximizing systems to save money. Global energy consumption has grown four times faster than population since 1900.
It’s all boils down to those new “air cons”. Islandboy would probably call it exponential growth. 😉
“As incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, people are buying air conditioners at alarming rates. In China, for example, sales of air conditioners have nearly doubled over the last five years. Each year now more than 60 million air conditioners are sold in China, more than eight times as many as are sold annually in the United States.”
To think I’ve been sweltering in the heat and looking at my brand new unopened ac unit (bought at the dealer’s yard sale) and refusing to install and run it till I’ve sorted out my contract with the grid operator. I have been holding back because of some issues I have with fees that have to be paid, including $100 to have my inverter “approved” by the local “Bureau of Standards” when it is already UL listed and if I pay to get it approved, anybody else who wants one would benefit from my effort to have that model “approved”. It is also required that I pay the $500 cost of the smart meter required to meter the electricity delivered to the grid, even though the grid operator has plans to replace ALL meters with smart meters that can be read remotely and disconnected a reconnected remotely. Stinks of extortion to me!
Any way the rest of the world at large does not seem to share my concerns so I think I should maybe say to hell with it all and join the party! Why am I depriving myself of the fun everybody else seems to be having? Saw a middle aged lady driving a brand new (looking) BMW 740 (limo class) yesterday. She obviously couldn’t give a rat’s a$$ about climate change and if she did the same money could easily have bought a Tesla. She or her husband could probably easily afford 10 kW plus of PV too but, why bother?
If one uses an idiot as a model for action, one becomes an idiot.
There is a huge chasm between what is legal and what is wrong.
I believe that when the day comes that you can buy a CHEAP hundred mile real world range electric car in the USA, it will sell like ice water in hell.
But it won’t happen until we see enough electric cars on a daily basis for people to get over the idea that they won’t last and that they leave you sitting on the shoulder twice a week with a dead battery.
It’s too bad that since people don’t in God anymore they are afraid of their shadows, and want to live forever, and therefore insist on having the utmost in safety features in cars………. insist that their Government Mommy and Government Daddy must make sure they never fall off their tricycle and skin a knee, or get hurt in a car crash………. leaving poor people who MUST commute the choice between a motorcycle or a worn out used car.
For those who can’t recognize it without an attached LABEL, SARC.
Fortunately there’s a loophole…. a three wheeled motorcycle can be enclosed, and can be and is generally a LOT safer than a two wheeler……. and three wheelers are exempted from most of the mandated safety regs.
I therefore see a time when enclosed three wheel electric motorcycles are the vehicle of choice for tens of millions of urban drivers. They ‘ll be the cheapest thing out there that will keep you clean and dry, the cheapest thing out there to buy and operate, and the next best thing to a scooter when it comes to getting around on crowded city streets. A plain old 120 volt outlet will suffice to charge one up overnight.
And hundreds of millions of people will quickly conclude that FIFTY miles is range enough. I used to live in the city, and for weeks at a time I never went more than ten miles from home in my car.
If a major auto manufacturer were to build such a vehicle, it could be sold for ten thousand dollars or less, once the volume is up, today.
In places with plenty of sun, but little or nothing in the way of the grid, such a vehicle will mean not only that a newly prosperous farmer can deliver five hundred pounds of produce to the nearest city, direct to his customer. He can use it to run a couple of lights and a refrigerator at night.
He can use it to run a tv and a computer….. and the time is coming when kids in poor countries can learn to read and write at home using computers and free ( meaning donated ) satellite internet services.
Maybe it will all amount to too little too late…. but maybe not for everybody.
“Fortunately there’s a loophole…. a three wheeled motorcycle can be enclosed, and can be and is generally a LOT safer than a two wheeler……. and three wheelers are exempted from most of the mandated safety regs.”
Down here, they still insist you wear a crash helmet and a fluorescent jacket with your index number on the back.
I can see this working…….. when there’s a good use for low level heat, and as the article points out, there are some businesses that can make good use of it.
Headed toward climate reality. When a Cat 5 storm sits for up to a day on a low island, with gusts up to 225 mph and three quarters of the island becomes water covered, the death toll is not 44 or anywhere near that. Especially when people are reporting truckloads of bodies being taken away and probably most washed out to sea. Here Paul Beckwith comes at this from the opposite end and comes up with a possible 40,000 dead.
If true, that would mean the hurricane wiped out around 10% of the population of The Bahamas or roughly a decade’s worth of growth. The economic damage of that alone would trigger a secondary catastrophe possibly lasting for decades.
Found this in the latest OilPrice intelligence report I received. 15 years. Still too long. But encouraging.
“Natural gas to be killed by renewables. A new study finds that roughly 90 percent of the gas-fired power plants in the U.S. will be more expensive than renewables by 2035. The study from Rocky Mountain Institute concluded that gas plants now on the drawing board will become uneconomic before they are even paid off. “Our story for gas plants is, if you build it, they won’t run – they won’t run at their expected capacity factors,” Mark Dyson, a co-author of the report, told Bloomberg. “And that filters down to pipelines, too.”
That is assuming the current course of civilization continues into the future. That is a physical impossibility.
That’s crazy. Natural gas is our premier heating fuel. Burning it to generate electricity is a crime for that reason. I should only be used for heating. Or at least that should be the goal. But once you have done all that you can with passive solar heating from a design perspective and perhaps some hot water, there is always going to be a huge demand for heat in certain parts of the country and natural gas is the best cleanest source for that purpose. Pissing it away on generating electricity when we should be focusing on the switch to renewable is a crime. But thinking that we won’t use that gas is stupid.
Hi SW,
A more important use of NG is for production of nitrogen fertilizer.
There is no other process to get that job done.
It directly supports the food growing for something like 5 B people (my guess).
Its going to take at least 2-3 decades to deploy enough renewables to remove nat gas from the electrical generation business, If we if approach it on an emergency basis.
If not, longer.
True. But we should approach it on an emergency basis. Don’t waste any more of it than necessary on electricity. To do so is a crime against future generations who are going to end up burning coal to stay warm.
“we should approach it on an emergency basis”
Thank you.
Get out the vote, especially in swing districts/states.
OFM, Fred, GF, etc- you guys got your work cut out.
. GF, etc- you guys got your work cut out.
Nahhh, not that kind of work. Spinning wheels.
This is a planetary emergency, partly caused by mining and burning natural gas. So why would I say use it at all?
Came across some Agenda 21 nutters, who appeared to be pro environment but hated environmentalists, thought E. O. Wilson was the worst and thought the UN wanted to control the world.
“How dare they tell people how to act?” They think FEMA is going to herd us all into camps or into cities and keep us from nature.
Almost as crazy as the techno-nutters who think we can build and buy our way out of this, while they mostly ignore the fossil fuel crazies who keep using more and more and certainly are not really concerned with nature. More concerned about themselves and their Lazy-Boy chairs.
Saw another guy, the typical middle aged American male. I was helping him do some physical labor, he looked ripe for a heart attack. Gasping for breath and stopping to rest a lot. I am at least 20 years older than him and had slightly increased my breathing rate doing the same work.
Yep, we can all give our thanks to the food industry and big pharma for weakening the population to the point where they can barely do anything, let alone save a world.
The fastest growing disease in the US is dementia.
Nope, not much help out there. Even the ones that seem to be on line are all fighting with each other over every detail or just plain nutters when you dig down.
I trust in nature.
Well GF, you sound jaded like me.
But the young ones remind me, if we don’t elect people who are eager to push all out for renewables deployment and aligned efforts,
then all your other issues raised are just talking points of a grumpy cohort.
I don’t know if your district is R, or D, or swing, but its a big deal.
I realized a while back that the Congress is constipated and can’t do much at, and the presidents in the past 6 terms have done only a little then immediately kill any forward progress and head backward.
My state is one of the top PV states but there is still a lot of hoops to jump at the local level for residential.
If you think voting in someone will cure the problem, go ahead. I look on it as hopium at the fed level and neutral at the state level. We need to get out of neutral, as of 1980.
I approach the problems from different and probably more effective angles than most. Go for real time cuts rather than potential future cuts and do other things that ring out globally. But the average dude is doing his best to keep BAU running so we are heavily outnumbered.
“If you think voting in someone will cure the problem, go ahead.”
I’m not naive enough to hope for a cure.
I’ve around too long for that.
But, it makes a hell a difference to have leaders who atleast acknowledge the problem, and can open the doors for citizens to act, rather than being obstructionist.
I find it bizarre that you spend time railing about issues, but give no credence to putting putting your vote where your mind/heart is.
You prefer the kind of EPA and Energy leaders of the republicans over democrats?
Its the very least you could do, if it the issues mattered to you.
Look your government may be dysfunctional. Fifty years of being brainwashed by Randian bullshit has probably convinced the majority of the population that representative democracy was a mistake at this point. But if you can’t see the difference between run of the mill government incompetence and the unadulterated evil of putting children in cages, turning your back on an island nation devastated by a huricaine because of the melanin content of its citizen’s skin, intentionally going out of your way to remove existing protections for clean air and water, well, I think you are as much a part of the problem as those who actively created this mess.
A more important use of NG is for production of nitrogen fertilizer.
There is no other process to get that job done.
“There is no Plan B for dealing with the climate crisis”
Man.
We are so screwed, aren’t we?
Sorry my beloved daughter. Daddy messed up your planet and now you’re gonna have to pay for daddy’s mistakes.
Sad.
This course was set long before any of us was born.
As you can see, deviating en masse from it through choice and deliberate action is next to impossible.
However, that does not exempt us from proper action and preparedness.
The real question then becomes, is your daughter and her generation ready to return to stone age lifestyles so that the glaciers and ice can be reclaimed?
“is your daughter and her generation ready to return to stone age lifestyles”
They will be, whether they like it or not and not for the sake of the glaciers.
NAOM
My advice to the next generation is that tins of gravy are known to make eating your lawn more palatable.
“tins of gravy”
I add to that- have no children, get good at making tasty meals from black-eyed peas, have a good pressure cooker and lots of solar panels, and become good at raising goats and chickens.
+1
What lawn? You’re assuming that lawns are going to be a thing the next generation will have. Not necessarily true.
Carbon-free resources are now cost competitive with new natural gas plants, according to a pair of reports released Monday by the Rocky Mountain Institute.
Wind, solar and storage projects, combined with demand-side management, have reached a “tipping point,” one report finds, meaning they’re now able to compete alongside natural gas on price while providing the same reliability services. But unlike the fluctuating price of fuels, these technologies’ prices are expected to continue dropping, the reports’ authors told Utility Dive.
This reality could leave many natural gas investors and utilities with stranded infrastructure assets, the second RMI report finds, and new gas investments should be made with caution.
Los Angeles regulators on Tuesday approved a “historically low cost” solar + storage project, which includes 400 MW of solar generation and a 300 MW / 1,200 MWh battery.
The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) Board of Commission says its approval of the power purchase agreements for the Eland Solar and Storage Center, will help the city reach 100% renewable power by 2045. City officials say the Eland project was selected from a pool of 130 proposals due to its scale and price, which includes a fixed cost of less than $0.02/kWh.
The project will be developed in two phases by 8Minutenergy, and is expected online by the end of 2023. According to the city, it will be the largest similar project in the United States.
Have the guys at RMI been watching Tony Seba videos 😉 or have they done their own independent analysis and come to similar conclusions?
Tony Seba is late to the game compared to RMI. Amory Louvins has been talking about 100% renewables since the mid 70’s combined with hyper conservation. Integrating EVs and then batteries into the grid came a little later. His 2011 book, “Reinventing Fire” remains a seminal book
Carbon emissions/capita or carbon/emissions /unit GDP
would be a meaningful map.
Carbon emission/capita (in metric tons)
#1- wyoming at 111.5
#50-california at 9.3
So you really think that each person in Wyoming is emitting 111.5 metric tons each year?
Its pretty simple data, not what I ‘think’.
Keep in mind that this includes the emissions from industry in each state.
Just as data on China includes their industry.
Nobody seems to remember the wars on nature and humanity, just that their bottom line might be eroded by the horrifying wind mills and solar panels. Maybe Don Quixote was just ahead of his time.
https://www.denverpost.com/2019/09/07/xcel-energy-mortenson-wind-farm-cheyenne-ridge/
This is part of Xcel Energy trying to be carbon-free by 2050. They estimate this will power around 100 to 125K homes.
“Xcel Energy-Colorado has selected the development company Mortenson to build the 500-megawatt Cheyenne Ridge Wind Project on the state’s Eastern Plains.
Mortenson and Xcel Energy said in a statement Thursday that the project, to be built over about 100,000 acres in Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties, is scheduled for completion in December 2020. Turbine manufacturer Vestas will supply a total of 229 turbines for the wind farm.”
Atmospheric experiment to cool the earth to begin within the year.
The Solar Radiation Management Governance Initiative, they call themselves.
I don’t recall a public debate or authorization.
I suppose this human thing is just one big experiment.
https://www.cfr.org/report/anticipatory-governance-solar-radiation-management
“Atmospheric experiment to cool the earth to begin within the year.”
Article is about a “Working Paper” basically a proposal that International bodies begin developing a framework to govern the atmospheric experiments. Not seeing the timeframe you are referring to. And essentially they are saying – this is going to happen anyway – we might as well start developing these governing bodies now.
True. The note of the experiments planned for this year was presented in this particular article, which is also a good discussion of the issue.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07533-4
“First sun-dimming experiment will test a way to cool Earth”
Perhaps misleading, as so many headlines are, but the process of exploring this mechanism is well underway.
Great article Hickory and they do spend a lot of time in the article talking about the political / ethical concerns, and they even mention another non-profit organization promoting and outlining the formation of a governing body.
I know this sounds all New World Order-like, but it really is a case of a global issue that can only be addressed globally.
the reality, talked about in the article, is that once humans get desperate enough they will try virtually anything in a last ditch hope of saving themselves. They’ve watched and internalized movies like Armageddon. Better to start collecting some data now to avoid some of the worst case scenarios for reactions.
I’m assuming most people on the forum are like me and think these geoengineering attempts have almost no chance of succeeding for longer than a few years. Especially now that peak oil is beginning to hit hard in terms of excess energy available to society.
Trouble is it won’t be addressed globally. One nation (on a list of 1) will decide it needs to be done to continue BAU and all others will suffer the consequences. No thought given to potential reductions in solar and wind output. No thought given to natural warming processes that have already been triggered. Why spend money on coastal protection when warming will be stopped in its tracks, besides, money for climate mitigation will be scarce as billions are pumped into the sky.
NAOM
Agree with your comments twocats.
A lot of good thinking is going into this issue at these organizations, and I suspect within the decade this will be more common talk, and will be a prez debate topic (getting plenty of sounds bites) in 2023.
The whole issue of governance and decision making on this is very troubling. Who will get a seat at the table? Who will stop an individual country or corporation from undertaking their own measures, be it Russia or the Gates Foundation, for example?
However, when I think on this, I realize that major environmental ‘experiments’ throughout history, such as the near complete deforestation of Europe and N.America that had happened primarily prior to coal, have been undertaken without any governance or thoughtful deliberation. The experiment of flooding the world with 7.7 Billion ‘sapiens’ did not go through the ethics board approval process.
So, perhaps this deliberation will be breaking the mold in some way.
Its a messy game to play.
Would be interesting to see the results of a global dimming program coinciding with a couple of large volcanic eruptions.
Anyone ever play with a yo-yo and have the string untie?
“Anyone ever play with a yo-yo and have the string untie?”
Good analogy. Expresses my concerns well.
China Coal production to increase by 100 million tonnes in 2019
https://www.mining.com/web/china-coal-imports-seen-cooling-once-beijing-reins-in-prices/
China’s environmentally conscious government have also given new mining permits which increase coal mining potential.
and is investing billions on new coal power plants
https://www.ft.com/content/baaa32dc-1d42-11e9-b126-46fc3ad87c65
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3005366/chinas-thermal-coal-imports-will-fall-10-12-million-tonnes-2019
China’s green veneer is getting ever thinner.
I was not aware that China ever had a green veneer.
some people did
Not really.
The debate is primarily between people who think that the US and Europe should proceed with a transition towards wind & solar, and those who disagree, and are using Chinese GHG emissions as an excuse to delay.
So, those who point to Chinese efforts to build wind & solar are simply arguing that China is very far from doing nothing. And, when you look at China’s overall situation, I think it’s reasonable to argue that there is no excuse there for inaction in the US or Europe (or elsewhere): China is doing at least as much as OECD countries.
Of course, what China does is really not very relevant: almost all countries will be better off if they maximize their efforts to transition from oil and FF, even if their efforts are unilateral. We see that recognition in Germany, for instance: wind & solar give them greater energy security, cleaner and (overall) more reliable power, and saves money in the long run.
Secondarily, some of China’s efforts towards renewables and EVs are encouraging and even a little inspiring, and people like to highlight bits of hopeful development – one needs occasional rays of light in the dark FF smog…
Nick G
What you have said is nonsense.
I am very pleased that the US and Europe is reducing Co2 emissions.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=26152
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/dashboards/emissions-trading-viewer-1
China’s dictatorship is only interested in keeping themselves in power and to do that they must keep people happy to prevent a revolution.
If they need to build 300 new coal fired power stations around the world they will do it and not care about the consequences.
China is undoing all the good work that the US and Europe have done to reduce Co2. Considering what we know NOW about the melting of Greenland etc their policies are nothing short of genocide.
I didn’t say that China is doing the optimum thing. I said that China is very roughly doing as much as the US.
Compare the growth rates for wind, solar and EVs for the US vs China.
Nick G
China is not doing the same.
How can increasing CO2 emissions which is all that counts be the same as decreasing CO2 emissions.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-chinas-co2-emissions-grew-4-during-first-half-of-2019
As most everyone knows, China plans on dealing with it’s GHG after 2030. We shall see.
However, the Belt and Road Initiative along with all it’s ancillary projects is a planet killer. It is the largest infrastructure build ever planned. “The Chinese have already launched more than 900 projects related to the implementation of their overall plan.”
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/new-silk-road-how-the-largest-infrastructure-project-ever-is-changing-the-world/
It looks like the Master Plan is winning and the disabled democracies are becoming irrelevant partly due to insular thinking.
If history is any teacher, master plans always fail. However, we do not have the time or energy to play that game.
What happened to the 1.5 degree emission target?
CHINESE BELT AND ROAD PLAN ‘MAY RESULT IN 2.7C WARMING’
“If B&RCs (Belt and Road countries) follow historical carbon-intense growth patterns… it may be enough to result in a 2.7 degree path, EVEN IF THE REST OF THE WORLD ADHERES TO 2 DEGREE LEVELS OF EMISSIONS.”
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/09/02/chinese-belt-road-plan-may-result-2-7c-warming/
Doug- It’s in the rear view mirror.
Gonefishing
What China is doing would be frightening enough without global warming.
With global warming already taking effect it is simply mindless
I’m not going to get started on this, but let’s just say we are all entitled to our own opinions regarding climate change.
Hmm.
Are we all entitled to our own opinions about evolution and natural selection?
Of course. I don’t think there’s ever only one completely correct answer to these kind of matters.
Total bullshit. There is only one correct answer to evolution and natural selection. It’s a fact. And there is only one correct answer to climate change. It’s a fact.
Facts On The Ground
Richard, thanks in part to anthropogenic stuff– like climate change, or global warming if you will– ‘natural selection’ might wipe many more species out, including the ‘anthros’, themselves.
Their opinions, of course, will vary while they are still alive, with some realizing, before they too kick the bucket, that the only ‘opinion’ that ultimately matters is Mother Nature’s.
Incidentally, due to Dorian’s mere remnants up here in Nova Scotia, I took a cold shower in the relative dark. The electricity, for the second or maybe third day in some parts, is still out in many areas of this small city. And that’s from the remnants of a hurricane, nowhere near its full force. Many trees and their branches and street-/business-signs, etc., were downed or messed-up.
As I’ve said to some people, if only in partial jest, ‘Welcome to a taste of the future.’.
Trust me; you can’t drive an electric car or most any car for that matter over or even around some downed trees I’ve seen, some still entangled in the grid’s wires. (I did it with my bike though, while others did it on foot. I went under one tree and around another.)
That said, we are not going to be resilient going forward if all we are preoccupied with are electric cars and solar panels. We need to look much more at self-reliance and resilience. Increasing ‘anthronatural’ effects like hurricanes ‘on steroids’ are going to make that increasingly obvious and relevant, even to those whose opinions don’t quite yet jive with reality.
FWIW, I’m posting this smack downtown at a McDonald’s restaurant with the section of town right across the street still dark.
The stars look much nicer and more numerous, incidentally, and despite my cold shower, I quite appreciate this little demo. For example, it is making me seriously rethink shrinking the time-frame of the development of a microecovillage I have in mind, as well as upping my own personal resilience and the resilience of those around me, at least those who aren’t too busy in the denial of these kinds of things.
Richard, Scientists work toward understanding science, not choosing to believe uncertain theories.
Richard says- “I’m not going to get started on this, but”
but he then does get started on it, right away. Tricky.
Richard, you have opinions on gravity?
That was extremely controversial at first.
How about the idea where the sun is the center of the solar system.
The Church sure didn’t like that opinion!
What does your guidance counselor allow you to consider as fact?
From If Sapiens were a blog post
https://neilkakkar.com/sapiens.html
Sure, we all know that society is a construct.
The one hope I have is Halloween. Unlike Christmas, which is mostly family oriented, or New Years which just moves a lot of money to alcohol producers and nightclubs, Halloween shows how a societal mindset can completely sidestep everyday culture.
Normally if strangers show up on the doorstep demanding or requesting food, they are rebuffed and/or the police are called. But not on Halloween! Here strangers show up on doorsteps by the droves and they collect food and some money too. With a minor amount of effort they get enough calories to last for days and some pocket change too. All for free, no police or fights involved. It’s all smiles and good times.
The system of private ownership goes back to a more tribal sharing at least one night a year.
Why?
I agree, Halloween is the best holiday.
You have all that Cabbages For Christ holidays, and then the nationalism– so Halloween is refreshing.
Nationalism and religion are super big problems.
Not so fast:
Personally, I like Thanksgiving, just for the grub.
I agree, Thanksgiving is not bad.
Halloween, a least for me, doesn’t have religious overtones.
But its history of superstition and ignorance is there to observe.
“Religion is Poison.”
Guess who?
Update on China energy- 1st half 2019
Good charts and data.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-chinas-co2-emissions-grew-4-during-first-half-of-2019
Fossil fuels increasingly offer a poor return on energy investment
Source:University of Leeds
Summary:Researchers have calculated the EROI for fossil fuels over a 16 year period and found that at the finished fuel stage, the ratios are much closer to those of renewable energy sources — roughly 6:1, and potentially as low as 3:1 in the case of electricity.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190711114846.htm
Time is running out.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikescott/2019/09/02/economics-of-electric-vehicles-mean-oils-days-as-a-transport-fuel-are-numbered/#24a2f2135102
This one is worthy of some discussion.
From the link I posted above
“As a result, the report says, the long-term break-even oil price for gasoline to remain competitive as a source of mobility is $9 – $10 per barrel, and for diesel $17 – $19 a barrel .”
OFM
The trouble with wind and solar is you need backup. In winter time nights are 16 hours long and often there is little wind. Building enough batteries just to power all the cities and towns is not feasible, let alone charging every car.
The UK has 21 gigawatts of installed wind capacity.
Look what it is producing.
https://www.bmreports.com/bmrs/?q=eds/main
Gas and nuclear provide consistent power which keeps prices low.
“The trouble with wind and solar is you need backup”
Well, yeh!!
Its a problem to deal with, but every Kwhr produced replaces other problematic sources of energy.
No source is without “problems”. Big ones.
Its a choice between problems.
Sure, I have posted several times that the EV/PV is the biggest bang for the buck (other than avoidance).
However, don’t get all aquiver over that. Hook an EV to a natural gas electric generator and it’s worse for climate change than petroleum for the next couple of generations at least (the critical period of global warming, I hear).
So unless we focus on getting the PV/wind energy directly to the vehicles we are literally spinning our wheels and living more fantasy.
But who needs an Arctic with ice and snow? Who wouldn’t like land temps 4C or 6C higher? Cuts heating bills right?
@Dennis
The thread ‘Open Thread Non-Petroleum, August 26, 2019’ is not updating new/read comments. The other threads seem to be working correctly so it looks like there is a bug at the server end. Maybe you can check into it.
NAOM
Thanks NAOM. I am not having that problem on these newer threads.
Seems to work for me.
Might need more detail on the nature of the problem.
I have posted an update over there, looks FF update related, will look tomorrow PM.
Temporary fix for anyone troubled by it, edit the cookie expiration date for that thread by increasing it by a day or two.
NAOM
Ok, the fix is in – I hope!
Firefox
Open Hamburger
Select ‘Preferences’
Select ‘Privacy & Security’
Scroll down to ‘Cookies and Site Data’
Select ‘Manage Permissions’
Add ‘http:/peakoilbarrel.com’ to ‘Address of web site’
Click on ‘Allow’
Click on ‘Save Changes’
That should do it, I’ll need a day or 2 to confirm.
NAOM
Thank you, thank you.
NuSTAR Spots Mysterious Source of Ultraluminous X-Rays in Nearby Spiral Galaxy
http://www.sci-news.com/astronomy/ultraluminous-x-ray-source-ngc-6946-07567.html
Less than 1% of the US population can read a power meter and relate to complexities of rate schedules. 10% eff lighting is a Yugh transfer of wealth from the sheeple to the investor class. What about debt do you not understand? Supereffecient solid state lighting = grid freedom.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-09-07/its-lightbulb-liberation-day
Just swapped a 20W halogen spot out for a 6W LED, better light and LOTS more of it. Incandescent are crap!
NAOM
“Trump is siding with manufacturers that want to keep selling outdated, energy-wasting lightbulbs”
https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/09/u-s-energy-department-to-prolong-the-lives-of-incandescent-lightbulbs-trump-is-siding-with-manufacturers-that-want-to-keep-selling-outdated-energy-wasting-lightbulbs.html
“The Trump administration Wednesday rolled back yet another Obama-era regulation. This time the Energy Department issued a final and a proposed rule that will prolong the life of certain old-fashioned — and energy-intensive — incandescent lightbulbs invented by Thomas Edison 140 years ago. The bulbs would otherwise have been effectively phased out by Jan. 1.”
It’s ridiculous, but it also doesn’t matter now. The regulation worked and there is a fully matured market of LED products that offer high efficiency, lower maintenance, and better light. The desirability of incandescents becomes limited to edge cases, say where you actually want heat as much or more than light.
Trump can roll back CAFE standards also, but who will still want an ICE that gets 35 mpg and has a 200k mile vehicle lifetime when a 120 mpge EV with a million mile powertrain, 300 miles of range, and the ability to charge 200 miles of range in 15 minutes can be had for an equal cost? That era is fast approaching.
I agree, it’s in the rear view mirror now.
Today, I changed a failed 11W CFL with a 3W LED. Just slightly less light but looks a lot better. Another 8W saved.
NAOM
From The Archives (2015)
Freaked out about the future of the planet? Don’t let fear ruin your finances
Alicia Adamczyk
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/29/how-to-save-for-the-future-when-youre-worried-about-the-planet.html
“Do ETFs, REITs and mutual funds still make sense to invest in if the planet won’t survive ’til our retirement?”
So read an Instagram DM from a friend earlier this year. The reasoning was fairly clear: A recent report from the United Nations indicates that climate change is harming the world’s food supply to a catastrophic degree, while a 2018 U.N. panel found that humans have 12 years to significantly reduce carbon emissions to ensure a “safe and sustainable” planet. The Amazon rainforest — AKA the lungs of the planet — is currently on fire, which could speed up climate change.
It might seem hyperbolic, but the Insta-messenger is far from the only member of Generation Y worried about the health of the planet to the extent that it affects their outlook on the future. Almost 90% of millennials recognize that man-made climate change is happening, leading some to experience what the American Psychological Association refers to as “eco-anxiety.”
“Gradual, long-term changes in climate can also surface a number of different emotions, including fear, anger, feelings of powerlessness, or exhaustion,” the APA noted in a 2017 study on the mental health effects of climate change.
With the planet at stake, who can blame you for not saving 10% of your income for a future you’re not sure will arrive?
While it’s easy to feel powerless, Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Nature Conservancy at UCLA, tells CNBC Make It that he has a more positive outlook on the state of things than what is typically portrayed in the media.
At just 30 years old, Swain is squarely within the demographic that seems to be losing hope. Indeed, he says weather events will become increasingly extreme, and humans will have to adapt to new ways of living. But he wants to make it very clear that now is the time to take action that will have “tremendous impact” on the Earth for “centuries and millennia to come.” Especially in wealthier countries, like the United States, which have historically emitted the largest amounts of greenhouse gases.
In fact, he says if anything, he and his fellow climate scientists are more energized than ever. Now is exactly the time to invest more, not less: In the future we want, in policies we believe in. And that definitely includes saving up for a sizable emergency fund.
Emergency funds are a GREAT idea.
But I strongly recommend that anybody who is really concerned that society might collapse within his own lifetime SERIOUSLY consider WHAT KIND OF FUNDS he wishes to use in his EMERGENCY fund.
SOME actual cash will be great, unless the use of it is outlawed. You ought to be able to get rid of it, at a tremendous profit, buying stuff that WILL be useful later, from desperate people, before THEY realize they need to get rid of it too, lol.
A little bird keeps whispering in my ear that stocks will be next to worthless, that money you may have loaned won’t be repaid, that your new car isn’t an investment but a horrible liability, etc.
When and if the shit is really and truly in the fan, a thousand nice first aid kits will be worth as much as a thousand wedding bands, but right now….. you can get a dozen decent first aid kits for the price of just one wedding band.
If you really do believe you see it coming, buy all the diesel fuel, gasoline, non perishable food, weapons, medical supplies, etc you can put your hands on and hold onto without being robbed.
If the shit really does hit the fan, you don’t need to worry about spare parts for your tractor. There will be PLENTY of tractors around that will run like new……. if you have fuel.
You can always resell this sort of stuff, at no more than a modest loss, if you buy it at the going prices.
There’s no huge downside, but the upside is literally almost limitless.
Democrats bite on burgers and straws — and Republicans feast
By CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO and HOLLY OTTERBEIN
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/06/democrats-2020-trump-culture-war-1484034
Democrats’ verbal targeting of everything from plastic straws to cheeseburgers is stoking fears among anti-Trump forces that they’re unwittingly playing into Republican culture wars.
Conservative recrimination over the threatened wholesale takeover of society came swiftly after CNN’s marathon climate change forum with Democratic presidential hopefuls this week. Republicans gleefully painted the field as a bunch of out-of-touch elites: In one video, the Republic National Committee shared brief clips from the candidates, including Joe Biden, appearing to advocate a shutdown of coal-burning plants and taking gas-burning vehicles off the road “as rapidly as we can.”
The message: There are no moderates running for the nomination.
Andrew Yang, in the same web ad, said, “We’re going to be OK if the vast majority of the world goes vegetarian immediately.”
“I just don’t even know what to do with ‘Burgergate,’” said Colin Strother, a veteran Democratic strategist from the cattle-rearing state of Texas. “It is such a fringe position that is out of step with an overwhelming majority of Americans — and let us not forget that a pretty wide swath of the country including Texas and the ‘Breadbasket’ are major beef producers.
“In fact,” Strother added, “the earliest primary state of Iowa sold almost a half a billion bushels of corn specifically to feed livestock last year. We have so many very serious issues facing our country that I struggle to understand how burgers even make the top-20 list.”
And yet, in her CNN town hall, Kamala Harris was asked whether she supports changing the food pyramid to reduce red meat consumption. She does. And, amid calling for prohibitions on hydraulic fracturing and offshore drilling, the California senator also came out for a ban on plastic straws, even as she acknowledged the inferiority of paper straws.
Bernie Sanders similarly waded into fraught territory with his riff on the spiraling world population. He was asked by a teacher from New Milford, Conn., whether he’d be “courageous enough” to make the politically “poisonous topic” of population control a key feature of his plan to address climate change. “Yes,” Sanders replied.
“The whole straw-burger debate reminds me of Sheryl Crow telling Americans to reuse toilet paper,” said Bryan Lanza, a former Trump campaign official. “It didn’t pass the smell test.”
Republicans against facts.
Democrats against cows.
Cool. I didn’t know the cow lobby was so strong, maybe the pigs and chickens got together with them. No updates from Far Side lately so we are on our own to find the truth.
It’s the nature of politicians of all stripes in a desperate race for higher office to talk like idiots during the primary season. They believe they HAVE to, these days, to curry favor with the hard core elements of their party in order to emerge as leaders early in the season. They’re probably right, at least part of the time.
Unfortunately for the D’s, the R’s aren’t bringing on a new generation of new leaders this time around. They’re satisfied or stuck, as you please, with what they’ve got, and there won’t be much primary action on the R side at all, except for some open seats due to retirements.
It’s also an extremely unfortunate fact, for the D’s in particular, and the people of this country, and the world in general, that the larger part of the people who think of themselves as environmentalists are utterly IGNORANT of the real day to day workings of the world, and talk about fixing things like little kids proposing that their parents spend money they haven’t got and can’t borrow.
Yes we need, we MUST, go away from oil and TO renewable energy, etc, but only a fucking MORON talks about change on this scale as if it’s not a HUGE job, one that will take a VERY LONG TIME, and one that CAN’T be rushed, short term.
In terms of the way we farm and eat today, yes we must eventually do things VERY differently, but only a FUCKING IGNORAMOUS could possibly believe there’s even a snowball’s chance on a red hot stove that we can do so NOW, or even in a generation. We might get a pretty good start in TWO generations, minimum, and only then if the REAL WORLD FORCES our hand.
So long as the industrial agricultural system continues to work, we will continue to use it, because not one young woman, or old woman , or man, who lives in a nice place in town will ever VOLUNTARILY give up that life style. The ones with guns will use them to counter anybody coming with a gun to TELL them they’re moving to the country to raise beans.
And it’s EVER so unfortunate that the people who are most likely INCLINED, PREDISPOSED, and IGNORANT enough to believe in such fantasies……… are younger college educated people who make a lot of money.
People like my NEIGHBORS who dropped out of ELEMENTARY school know better, because they live and work in the REAL PHYSICAL WORLD, rather than spending their time cocooned in offices shoving electrons and paper around, and back inside their alternate home cocoon where they get everything delivered magically to them. It’s easy to believe in fantasies when you only see the sun on the way to and from cocoons.
Caelan will NEVER answer the simplest question such as how I can get my apples from where I live to a city only a hundred miles away without trucks, or at least without trains. I sure as hell couldn’t ever haul them that far in a horse drawn wagon, and there’s no navigable river near where I live.
Change on the scale politically naive environmentalists talk about is possible…… but only decades down the road, generations down the road.
Let us all pray to our favorite Rock or Snake or whatever that the D’s who eventually win primaries are smart enough to get up in front of the cameras and the crowds and say look, in principle we were right to be talking about such things, because they needed to be talked about, but we aren’t running on doing away with hamburgers or plastic straws, lol.
There are free hamburgers and soft drinks available for you right over there…wrapped in paper, and served in paper cups with plastic straws. We exaggerate just like the orange baboon, when it suits us…… but we aren’t SERIOUS when we say such things. We admit it later, own up to it, later, and LAUGH WITH you about it, rather than insulting your intelligence by insisting we DIDN’T flat out LIE to you about such things…. like the orange orangutan.
And as far as answering those who will ask, what happens if we DON’T change faster?
They know already, if they’re INFORMED environmentalists. We’re going to collectively crash and burn of course.
I find it amusing that they ask me such a question, given that they make fun( gentle fun, true) of me for believing SOME people in SOME places MAY pull thru while still preserving the basics of industrial civilization.
I’ll be too old to do more than LEER at them, and make uncalled for male pig remarks, but if the crash comes before I’m gone, I’ll be glad to provide a home for a couple of good looking younger women with a couple of small kids. I can and will LOOK at the women, and play with the kids, assuming some man doesn’t come along and murder me.
Australia’s main grid hits new peak of 41 per cent wind and solar
I have a feeling that Australia will be among one of, if not the first of the G20 countries to achieve over 90% of their electricity from renewable sources. It’s only a matter of time and the comparative performance of renewable vs. thermal plants over the coming Australian summer should be interesting.
I wonder how long it will take the Aussies to build new or retrofit existing housing and other buildings to use dirt cheap solar power at night so they can shut down nearly all their coal fired geneation.
It’s not that hard to do. A few tons of concrete or other high density material, just crushed stone, inside a house can be chilled enough during the day so that no air conditioning will be needed even on a very hot night, etc.
Or to switch night time loads to day time. Putting twice as big a pump on the job of pumping water up into a water tower will get the job done during the day, rather than it taking 24 hours, etc.
Islandboy says
“I have a feeling that Australia will be among one of, if not the first of the G20 countries to achieve over 90% of their electricity from renewable sources.”
Islandboy can you please send me some of what you are having?
https://opennem.org.au/energy/nsw1/
New South Wales 4 September at 4.30pm out of 7,300Mw coal and gas contributed over 6,200Mw
Black coal in Queensland is responsible for over 80% of electricity produced on a daily basis
https://opennem.org.au/energy/qld1/
South Australia uses hardly anything but has 100 gas backup.
On an annual basis black coal and gas provide 80% of electricity.
I have said this before in order for countries to stop burning fossils fuels they all have to spend between 800% and 1200% more than they are doing at the moment.
Hugo,
Within twenty years, wind and solar power are going to be so cheap WHEN THE WIND AND SUN ARE COOPERATING that nobody will pay for any more coal and gas than is necessary for backup.
For years my Dad kept just one vehicle, a fuel thirsty pickup. It sufficed for all his needs. Then the day came when he bought a car which which used HALF as much gasoline as the truck . He went from using the truck every day to using it once or twice a week. Sometimes he didn’t use the truck at all for a couple of weeks at a time.
All that coal fired and gas fired capacity you talk about will eventually be so expensive to maintain and run, compared to wind and solar power, that it will be like that truck.
OFM
You obviously are not aware of much of the data.
https://www.iea.org/wei2018/
A total of $450 billion will be spent on upstream oil and gas, while only £250 billion on renewable energy.
https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy
As a percentage of GDP spending 0.3% or 0.9% is simply nowhere near what is needed.
Most and maybe even all of what’s spent on upstream oil and gas will serve only to MAINTAIN CURRENT PRODUCTION LEVELS.
How many oil wells drilled this year will be producing in 2050, and how much, compared to their initial production?
A solar farm finished in 2020 will still be going more or less full tilt in 2050.Ditto today’s wind farm.
Today’s solar farm may well be producing MORE electricity in 2050 than it does in 2021 when it’s brand new, because this this years new panels may be swapped out ten or twenty years down the road for more efficient ones that cost LESS, not more. Old panels will be sold in the used market.
When old turbines reach the end of their working life at twenty to thirty years, they will be replaced with new ones that generate more electricity than the old ones……..
Solar and wind farms can be refurbished to better than new condition for a rather minor fraction of the cost of building new ones.
The RED QUEEN isn’t exactly your BEST FRIEND, if you happen to be in the oil and gas biz.
People in the renewable energy biz need not pay her any mind at all.
The only REAL problem with renewable electricity is the intermittency and storage issue.
My guess is that a lot of countries will still be burning a good bit of coal and gas to back up wind and solar power in 2050.
OFM
Peak soil
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peaksoil-agriculture-idUSKBN0FM1HC20140717
Peak Water
https://pacinst.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/21/2013/02/concept_of_peak_water_20113.pdf
We have already passed peak fish
http://www.ethicalcorp.com/over-fishing-worse-threat-oceans-climate-change
I do not think too many people will see 2050
Don’t worry. Human ingenuity will break the laws of physics.
Maybe not.
But barring WWIII or something of that kind, my personal guess is that there won’t be any substantial die off of the total human population, in percentage terms,until somewhat later.
But I wouldn’t be surprised at all if there are some really major localized human population crashes before 2050.
The thing about a major local die off is that it reduces the pressure on the local food and water supply substantially for a generation or even two or three generations.
Mine is the farmer’s perspective. We’re used to dealing with catastrophes on the local and regional level, even on scale of the Dust Bowl once in a while. I don’t mean we are necessarily personally or individually accustomed to such events , but in general terms they are old hat to us.
We lost everything, locally, in our orchards , two or three times over the course of my life, and every eight to ten years we run in the hole due to bad weather.
Other local guys have had to sell out their entire herd of cows due to a lack of feed at least twice during my lifetime.
OFM
The local catastrophes that you talk about are very distressing to the people involved. However once past farmers could always buy new cattle and start again.
With over fishing, we are seeing for the first time ever, the total destruction of fish on a global scale.
https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2017/02/ocean-fish-stocks-on-verge-collapse-irin-report/
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-30/china-super-trawlers-overfishing-world-oceans/10317394
Already Europe is being overwhelmed with Africans illegally trying to get here, things will just get worse and there won’t be enough food for everyone.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-46815584
This is happening every day and people have had enough.
We have vast number of people reduced to going to food banks.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/food-bank-uk-benefits-trussell-trust-cost-of-living-highest-rate-a8317001.html
and millions of people cannot afford to buy a home.
People will not die quietly, governments will go to war to secure, fish, food, water or they will be overthrown
Back atcha Hugo,
I have posted here on numerous occasions that people who are migrating as the consequence of famines, war, and such other disasters will at some not too distant future time be met at national borders with men behind fences who WILL shoot to kill.
It’s hard to say how long it will be before such fences are commonplace.
So far the European countries targeted by immigrants are succeeding reasonably well in intercepting them and turning them back, admitting a token few of course.
So far, in modern times, fences have been built to keep people IN.
Within the next decade or two, some will be built to keep people OUT, and I don’t mean just at the USA/Mexican border.
I have never said that collapse is a picnic.
But I continue to maintain that it is more likely to be piecemeal over some years than sudden and global, and that some people in some places may pull thru more or less whole, at least to the extent they have electricity, water and sewer, cops, etc.
Hey Hugo,
If it comes to walls, you are going to need one to circle London, to keep all those urbanites in. Which side of it would you find yourself on?
Walls aren’t necessarily physical.
The super wealthy generally already have themselves walled off.
Although, about 8 yrs Bill Gates stood in line waiting for me and my wife to finish our meal and vacate our table at the local Mexican restaurant. Also saw him with his kids at the drive-up Burger joint nearby. He is more out and about than most of the rest, who tend to heavily isolate themselves from the rest of us commoners.
OFM said “My guess is that a lot of countries will still be burning a good bit of coal and gas to back up wind and solar power in 2050”
That is a possibility and with the current mindset a probable outcome. Of course, long before that time the general case of overshoot and limits to growth will be in more than obvious play and make all current civilizational probabilities a moot point.
As long as people continue to be destructive to the environment, the other species and themselves the outcome is inevitable and obvious. Does not matter what political party is elected or how much renewable energy we install.
The only question that needs to be answered “Is the earth I leave behind better or at least as good as the earth into which I was born?”
The answer to that has been a collective no for at least several hundred years, probably several thousand. The results are obvious, the current culture is headed for a crash, one of the largest in history. In fact history itself could end.
Leaving behind a wrecked, toxic, dead world is not anything anyone should aim for, yet in general that is the direction. Meanwhile industry is wrecking the population, so they have little incentive or ability to act.
How to design and build a pandemic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyrcYVH6qtU
I tend to focus on trends and where they lead. If you look at the UK for example, how did it come to pass that the UK produced 30% of it’s electricity in 2018 from renewable sources, up from 14% in 2013? Where is that trend heading?
You can look at the trends in other markets and renewable sources are growing their share of production in many of them. Despite the hostile governments in places like Australia and the US, renewable energy growth is surprisingly robust, driven by continually falling LCOE from renewable sources. If renewables are being embraced at current costs, what is going to happen when the costs halve? What happens if they halve again? Solar appears to be heading towards a price of less than one cent per kWh of generated electricity. What is going to compete with that in places like the southwestern US, Australia, the Middle East and North Africa?
Hugo wrote:
“I have said this before in order for countries to stop burning fossils fuels they all have to spend between 800% and 1200% more than they are doing at the moment.”
Based on the falling costs, multiple of what countries need to spend to stop burning fossil fuels will keep falling. Who knows? Maybe in anther decade the amount that is being spent now will buy enough renewable energy and storage to get the job done over the following decade.
I was struck by the presentation on exponential growth by Prof. Al Bartlett (Arithmetic, Population and Energy – a talk by Al Bartlett). At first you don’t notice the item that is growing, then you notice it but, it appears insignificant, then it gets more commonplace until you are left wondering how it came to be dominant. Ignore the trends all you want. We will see who has the last laugh!
Islandboy,
“At first you don’t notice the item that is growing, then you notice it but, it appears insignificant, then it gets more commonplace until you are left wondering how it came to be dominant.”
You mean like population increase or global warming or sea level raise or environmental destruction?
BTW Research, described in Scientific American, demonstrates that climate scientists, far from exaggerating the threat of climate change, have underestimated its pace and severity. That must fit in nicely with your thinking? Is climate change exhibiting exponential growth? Will we be left “wondering how it came to be dominant”?
Islandboy
Firstly UK renewable production is not 30% it is 20%. The burning of biomass is extremely dubious to say the least.
https://www.biofuelwatch.org.uk/2018/pellets-introduction/
This is just deforestation given an ecological front.
Some time ago I found a website that showed how fast we needed to cut CO2 emissions for every year peak was delayed after 2015 I think.
If peak were next year we would have to cut CO2 emission by something like 4% each year.
When you consider the increase in electricity consumption and that CO2 from deforestation is often not included then the task becomes ever more difficult.
Consider this. If the Poles and Greenland are melting now with CO2 levels of 410ppm. In order to stop that melting we obviously need to reduce that level of CO2. In other words become Co2 negative within the next 15 year at the very most.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/527196/how-much-will-it-cost-to-solve-climate-change/
The cost obviously keeps going up because we have failed to do enough in the last 20 years.
On September 8th the Arctic Ice Concentration looked like this. On this diagram only the bright white is contiguous ice, the rest is broken. Dark blue is open water. Light blue is mixed and so on.
Just so one can see the 100 percent ice pack better I image processed the diagram.
This, too, from Climate Reanalyzer:
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#seaice-snowc-topo
Around Iceland and north of Victoria Island are areas of unusually high ice concentration (ice that lies outside the orange “line”).
oh yeah, just look at all that sea ice concentration around Iceland!
http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/
Western Arctic sea ice, the bit with Victoria Island in it, can be seen at link below for current and historical sea ice data for same week from 1981 to 2019.
https://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod/page3.xhtml
hmmm, my Western Arctic sea ice link didn’t work. try again with a different format
https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTWA/20190902180000_CVCHDCTWA_0010748300.pdf
Steven, Trump uses a black sharpy and you use an orange one.
Same false narrative.
Sometimes we forget that scientists have been working on these predicaments for a long time. Also, in the rose colored glasses world there are a lot of “solutions” presented that really are more like taking the yellow-brick road to see the wizard of Oz.
In reality, like in the story, a whole empire has to crumble.
Back in 2010, maybe there was a bit of reality seeping in.
To avoid climate change catastrophe, civilization must collapse—Dr. Tim Garrett
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpRGMTPLd74
I thought we all just had to go buy new cars.
Good one.
I find it refreshing to hear a professor of atmospheric sciences come up with a solid correlation that still holds almost 10 years later. Rarely do climate scientists look realistically at civilization.
Energy growth just keeps going up, despite efficiency gains and business maximizing systems to save money. Global energy consumption has grown four times faster than population since 1900.
It’s all boils down to those new “air cons”. Islandboy would probably call it exponential growth. 😉
“As incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, people are buying air conditioners at alarming rates. In China, for example, sales of air conditioners have nearly doubled over the last five years. Each year now more than 60 million air conditioners are sold in China, more than eight times as many as are sold annually in the United States.”
http://theconversation.com/the-global-impact-of-air-conditioning-big-and-getting-bigger-62882
To think I’ve been sweltering in the heat and looking at my brand new unopened ac unit (bought at the dealer’s yard sale) and refusing to install and run it till I’ve sorted out my contract with the grid operator. I have been holding back because of some issues I have with fees that have to be paid, including $100 to have my inverter “approved” by the local “Bureau of Standards” when it is already UL listed and if I pay to get it approved, anybody else who wants one would benefit from my effort to have that model “approved”. It is also required that I pay the $500 cost of the smart meter required to meter the electricity delivered to the grid, even though the grid operator has plans to replace ALL meters with smart meters that can be read remotely and disconnected a reconnected remotely. Stinks of extortion to me!
Any way the rest of the world at large does not seem to share my concerns so I think I should maybe say to hell with it all and join the party! Why am I depriving myself of the fun everybody else seems to be having? Saw a middle aged lady driving a brand new (looking) BMW 740 (limo class) yesterday. She obviously couldn’t give a rat’s a$$ about climate change and if she did the same money could easily have bought a Tesla. She or her husband could probably easily afford 10 kW plus of PV too but, why bother?
If one uses an idiot as a model for action, one becomes an idiot.
There is a huge chasm between what is legal and what is wrong.
Mordida
Mordida
Mordida
Jevons paradox
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
https://www.thedrive.com/tech/29729/the-worlds-most-important-electric-car-is-launching-now-and-its-not-a-porsche-or-tesla
I believe that when the day comes that you can buy a CHEAP hundred mile real world range electric car in the USA, it will sell like ice water in hell.
But it won’t happen until we see enough electric cars on a daily basis for people to get over the idea that they won’t last and that they leave you sitting on the shoulder twice a week with a dead battery.
It’s too bad that since people don’t in God anymore they are afraid of their shadows, and want to live forever, and therefore insist on having the utmost in safety features in cars………. insist that their Government Mommy and Government Daddy must make sure they never fall off their tricycle and skin a knee, or get hurt in a car crash………. leaving poor people who MUST commute the choice between a motorcycle or a worn out used car.
For those who can’t recognize it without an attached LABEL, SARC.
Fortunately there’s a loophole…. a three wheeled motorcycle can be enclosed, and can be and is generally a LOT safer than a two wheeler……. and three wheelers are exempted from most of the mandated safety regs.
I therefore see a time when enclosed three wheel electric motorcycles are the vehicle of choice for tens of millions of urban drivers. They ‘ll be the cheapest thing out there that will keep you clean and dry, the cheapest thing out there to buy and operate, and the next best thing to a scooter when it comes to getting around on crowded city streets. A plain old 120 volt outlet will suffice to charge one up overnight.
And hundreds of millions of people will quickly conclude that FIFTY miles is range enough. I used to live in the city, and for weeks at a time I never went more than ten miles from home in my car.
If a major auto manufacturer were to build such a vehicle, it could be sold for ten thousand dollars or less, once the volume is up, today.
In places with plenty of sun, but little or nothing in the way of the grid, such a vehicle will mean not only that a newly prosperous farmer can deliver five hundred pounds of produce to the nearest city, direct to his customer. He can use it to run a couple of lights and a refrigerator at night.
He can use it to run a tv and a computer….. and the time is coming when kids in poor countries can learn to read and write at home using computers and free ( meaning donated ) satellite internet services.
Maybe it will all amount to too little too late…. but maybe not for everybody.
“Fortunately there’s a loophole…. a three wheeled motorcycle can be enclosed, and can be and is generally a LOT safer than a two wheeler……. and three wheelers are exempted from most of the mandated safety regs.”
Down here, they still insist you wear a crash helmet and a fluorescent jacket with your index number on the back.
NAOM
https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2019/09/09/how-to-get-to-50-solar-panel-conversion-efficiency-sunovate-celebrates-its-first-demo-project/
I can see this working…….. when there’s a good use for low level heat, and as the article points out, there are some businesses that can make good use of it.
Headed toward climate reality. When a Cat 5 storm sits for up to a day on a low island, with gusts up to 225 mph and three quarters of the island becomes water covered, the death toll is not 44 or anywhere near that. Especially when people are reporting truckloads of bodies being taken away and probably most washed out to sea. Here Paul Beckwith comes at this from the opposite end and comes up with a possible 40,000 dead.
Bahama Death Toll of 40,000 from Hurricane Dorian: My Estimate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFVUpk5VME8
If true, that would mean the hurricane wiped out around 10% of the population of The Bahamas or roughly a decade’s worth of growth. The economic damage of that alone would trigger a secondary catastrophe possibly lasting for decades.
Found this in the latest OilPrice intelligence report I received. 15 years. Still too long. But encouraging.
“Natural gas to be killed by renewables. A new study finds that roughly 90 percent of the gas-fired power plants in the U.S. will be more expensive than renewables by 2035. The study from Rocky Mountain Institute concluded that gas plants now on the drawing board will become uneconomic before they are even paid off. “Our story for gas plants is, if you build it, they won’t run – they won’t run at their expected capacity factors,” Mark Dyson, a co-author of the report, told Bloomberg. “And that filters down to pipelines, too.”
That is assuming the current course of civilization continues into the future. That is a physical impossibility.
That’s crazy. Natural gas is our premier heating fuel. Burning it to generate electricity is a crime for that reason. I should only be used for heating. Or at least that should be the goal. But once you have done all that you can with passive solar heating from a design perspective and perhaps some hot water, there is always going to be a huge demand for heat in certain parts of the country and natural gas is the best cleanest source for that purpose. Pissing it away on generating electricity when we should be focusing on the switch to renewable is a crime. But thinking that we won’t use that gas is stupid.
Hi SW,
A more important use of NG is for production of nitrogen fertilizer.
There is no other process to get that job done.
It directly supports the food growing for something like 5 B people (my guess).
Its going to take at least 2-3 decades to deploy enough renewables to remove nat gas from the electrical generation business, If we if approach it on an emergency basis.
If not, longer.
True. But we should approach it on an emergency basis. Don’t waste any more of it than necessary on electricity. To do so is a crime against future generations who are going to end up burning coal to stay warm.
“we should approach it on an emergency basis”
Thank you.
Get out the vote, especially in swing districts/states.
OFM, Fred, GF, etc- you guys got your work cut out.
. GF, etc- you guys got your work cut out.
Nahhh, not that kind of work. Spinning wheels.
This is a planetary emergency, partly caused by mining and burning natural gas. So why would I say use it at all?
Came across some Agenda 21 nutters, who appeared to be pro environment but hated environmentalists, thought E. O. Wilson was the worst and thought the UN wanted to control the world.
“How dare they tell people how to act?” They think FEMA is going to herd us all into camps or into cities and keep us from nature.
Almost as crazy as the techno-nutters who think we can build and buy our way out of this, while they mostly ignore the fossil fuel crazies who keep using more and more and certainly are not really concerned with nature. More concerned about themselves and their Lazy-Boy chairs.
Saw another guy, the typical middle aged American male. I was helping him do some physical labor, he looked ripe for a heart attack. Gasping for breath and stopping to rest a lot. I am at least 20 years older than him and had slightly increased my breathing rate doing the same work.
Yep, we can all give our thanks to the food industry and big pharma for weakening the population to the point where they can barely do anything, let alone save a world.
The fastest growing disease in the US is dementia.
Nope, not much help out there. Even the ones that seem to be on line are all fighting with each other over every detail or just plain nutters when you dig down.
I trust in nature.
Well GF, you sound jaded like me.
But the young ones remind me, if we don’t elect people who are eager to push all out for renewables deployment and aligned efforts,
then all your other issues raised are just talking points of a grumpy cohort.
I don’t know if your district is R, or D, or swing, but its a big deal.
I realized a while back that the Congress is constipated and can’t do much at, and the presidents in the past 6 terms have done only a little then immediately kill any forward progress and head backward.
My state is one of the top PV states but there is still a lot of hoops to jump at the local level for residential.
If you think voting in someone will cure the problem, go ahead. I look on it as hopium at the fed level and neutral at the state level. We need to get out of neutral, as of 1980.
I approach the problems from different and probably more effective angles than most. Go for real time cuts rather than potential future cuts and do other things that ring out globally. But the average dude is doing his best to keep BAU running so we are heavily outnumbered.
“If you think voting in someone will cure the problem, go ahead.”
I’m not naive enough to hope for a cure.
I’ve around too long for that.
But, it makes a hell a difference to have leaders who atleast acknowledge the problem, and can open the doors for citizens to act, rather than being obstructionist.
I find it bizarre that you spend time railing about issues, but give no credence to putting putting your vote where your mind/heart is.
You prefer the kind of EPA and Energy leaders of the republicans over democrats?
Its the very least you could do, if it the issues mattered to you.
Look your government may be dysfunctional. Fifty years of being brainwashed by Randian bullshit has probably convinced the majority of the population that representative democracy was a mistake at this point. But if you can’t see the difference between run of the mill government incompetence and the unadulterated evil of putting children in cages, turning your back on an island nation devastated by a huricaine because of the melanin content of its citizen’s skin, intentionally going out of your way to remove existing protections for clean air and water, well, I think you are as much a part of the problem as those who actively created this mess.
A more important use of NG is for production of nitrogen fertilizer.
There is no other process to get that job done.
NG is used because it provides hydrogen, which is combined with atmospheric nitrogen in the Haber-Bosch process. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process
There are other sources of hydrogen – the most straightforward is electrolysis of water, using seawater and renewable electricity.
NG IS NOT ESSENTIAL.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654255
“There is no Plan B for dealing with the climate crisis”
Man.
We are so screwed, aren’t we?
Sorry my beloved daughter. Daddy messed up your planet and now you’re gonna have to pay for daddy’s mistakes.
Sad.
This course was set long before any of us was born.
As you can see, deviating en masse from it through choice and deliberate action is next to impossible.
However, that does not exempt us from proper action and preparedness.
The real question then becomes, is your daughter and her generation ready to return to stone age lifestyles so that the glaciers and ice can be reclaimed?
“is your daughter and her generation ready to return to stone age lifestyles”
They will be, whether they like it or not and not for the sake of the glaciers.
NAOM
My advice to the next generation is that tins of gravy are known to make eating your lawn more palatable.
“tins of gravy”
I add to that- have no children, get good at making tasty meals from black-eyed peas, have a good pressure cooker and lots of solar panels, and become good at raising goats and chickens.
+1
What lawn? You’re assuming that lawns are going to be a thing the next generation will have. Not necessarily true.
Feeling very fucked right now.
I first met Boone at a basketball tryout in 1945. He lived in Amarillo for many years. Also met three of his spectacular wives. https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/t-boone-pickens-self-made-texas-tycoon-dead/287-2f62b8ee-a8c4-42bf-991c-59ad0434af30
Renewables, storage poised to undercut natural gas prices, increase stranded assets: RMI
For example:
Los Angeles approves ‘historically low cost’ solar+storage project
Have the guys at RMI been watching Tony Seba videos 😉 or have they done their own independent analysis and come to similar conclusions?
Tony Seba is late to the game compared to RMI. Amory Louvins has been talking about 100% renewables since the mid 70’s combined with hyper conservation. Integrating EVs and then batteries into the grid came a little later. His 2011 book, “Reinventing Fire” remains a seminal book
Who are the bad boy states on a high carbon diet?
See the rest at
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/these-dosen-states-could-move-to-100-percent-renewable-electricity/
Carbon emissions/capita or carbon/emissions /unit GDP
would be a meaningful map.
Carbon emission/capita (in metric tons)
#1- wyoming at 111.5
#50-california at 9.3
So you really think that each person in Wyoming is emitting 111.5 metric tons each year?
Its pretty simple data, not what I ‘think’.
Keep in mind that this includes the emissions from industry in each state.
Just as data on China includes their industry.
Here’s the per capita data. Cali is 50 of 52 i.e 3rd lowest.
Wyoming is number 1. approx 12 times higher than Cali.
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/us-states-by-carbon-dioxide-emissions-per-capita.html
Uh, oooh, the propaganda has gotten deeper. Now a war on natural gas is being declared. Poor babies.
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/118752-the-energy-wars-part-1-natural-gas-under-fire-as-states-favor-alternatives-in-climate-policy-push#
Nobody seems to remember the wars on nature and humanity, just that their bottom line might be eroded by the horrifying wind mills and solar panels. Maybe Don Quixote was just ahead of his time.