150 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, April 9, 2020”

  1. CO2 hit 412.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2020, a rise of 2.6 ppm from 2019. March 2021 CO2 = 417.64 ppm. And, for what it’s worth, on Apr. 9th, 2021, CO2 = 419.32 ppm.

    CARBON DIOXIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHER THAN THEY’VE BEEN AT ANY POINT IN THE LAST 3.6 MILLION YEARS

    “Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane levels in the atmosphere continued to rise in 2020, with CO2 level reaching their highest point in 3.6 million years. The barrier was broken despite a reduction in expected emissions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Scripps also noted that the amount of CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere is accelerating. It took over 200 years for levels to increase by 25%, but now just over 30 years later, levels are at a 50% increase. Should the current trends continue, it predicts that CO2 levels will be twice as high as pre-industrial levels in about 55 years. NOAA also found that levels of methane, another greenhouse gas, increased dramatically in 2020. NOAA’s preliminary analysis showed the annual increase in atmospheric methane for 2020 was 14.7 parts per billion (ppb), which is the largest annual increase recorded since systematic measurements began in 1983…

    NOAA did note that this report is preliminary and the final calculation of greenhouse gas levels is usually slightly lower than the preliminary numbers. It said that, even with the final calculations, the 2020 increase is likely to remain one of the largest in the entire record.”

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-carbon-dioxide-highest-level-million-years/

    1. “The earliest known record of the genus Homo — the human genus — represented by a lower jaw with teeth, recently found in the Afar region of Ethiopia, dates to between 2.8 and 2.75 million years ago, according to an international team of geoscientists and anthropologists.”

      We are in new territory—

    2. Doug , you are following CC very closely . My question . What is the tipping point of CO2 concentration ? Are we already there ? My personal experiences and observations ;
      1. Change in the monsoon pattern in India in 1993 ( when I immigrated ) and today .
      2. Hungary 1993 . My heating was switched on from 15th Sept to 31st March . 2010 when I left Hungary the winter was so warm I did not switch on my heating .
      3. 2010 in Belgium by March the shops were selling the Spring collection . Today day time temperature is 8 degree Celsius and is expected so for the forthcoming week to be in the same range .
      These are my observations over a period of + 25 years . What do you think the reduction of Arctic ice is doing ? What is more serious / dangerous today ? CO 2, Arctic Ice or the joker in the pack methane emissions .

      1. HOLE IN HEAD —

        The subject of tipping points is rather complex. I recommend you start by reading:

        CLIMATE EMERGENCY: WORLD ‘MAY HAVE CROSSED TIPPING POINTS’

        This Guardian article is a synthesis of reports on the tipping points issue (written for the non- scientist). Most salient points are briefly described. If you want more information Google the climate scientists mentioned which will take you to some of the scientific papers respecting climate tipping points.

        https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/27/climate-emergency-world-may-have-crossed-tipping-points#:~:text=The world may already have,a stark warning from scientists.&text=In the past, extreme heating,happen between 1C and 2C.

        BTW While atmospheric CO2 is already at levels last seen roughly four million years ago, in the Pliocene epoch, it is rapidly heading towards levels last seen some 50 million years ago — in the Eocene — when temperatures were up to 14 °C higher than they were in pre-industrial times.

        https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0

        1. Quaternary Ice Age.

          We’ve been in this ice age for over a couple million years at this point.

      2. The question of the tipping point(s) is complicated. All subsystems of Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, biosphere, etc. are out of balance because of the speed and the magnitude of change. The disorders that you noted are typical of this. They illustrate the fantasy of a polar jet-stream now with an erratic path like the meanders of the Seine downstream from Paris because of the decrease of the gradient of temperatures between equatorial areas and Arctic areas (the Arctic areas are warming more than the rest of the world) which did decrease in return the Eastward motion of the mid latitudes atmosphere. Personnaly, I fear the day when there will be no summer ice pack : we will be thrown into another world. Actually, the world of the Pliocene. Regarding carbon dioxide level(s) of Pliocene, there are still uncertainties (450 ppm?) but it is within the range of the next few years.

    3. A 2.6 PPM change in the CO2 concentration is just a 0.63% change. Such a small change in one year is not going to produce the change in average worldwide temperature the data is showing. In other words, there must be other factors besides emissions that are causing the changes in temperature on this planet over the eons.

      2. Kevin N-
        “A 2.6 PPM change in the CO2 concentration is just a 0.63% change. Such a small change in one year is not going to produce the change in average worldwide temperature”

        Did you go to school for that?
        And did you realize that the sun is much too far away to be the source of warmth on earth. The warmth all comes from inside the earth. More during the day than night. Less at the poles, but no one knows why?

    1. Sounds to me like renewables are free lunch. No need for workers.

  4. If 1/2 of the land currently used for liquid biofuel production in the world was converted to wildlife preserve, the mass of remaining global mammalian wildlife (weighing over 3 pounds) could be tripled. The preservation effect on birds and amphibians would also be tremendous/immeasurable.

    We are talking about lands that are naturally very bountiful, in places like USA, Brazil, Indonesia, Europe, China, and more.

    This would result in a loss of well less than 2% of the worlds liquid fuel supply.
    People would have to carpool on the way to Disneyland and the football [soccer] game.
    Maybe they could carpool on the way to the gas station too.

    1. Thanks Hickory. I’d love to see mammalian wildlife tripled.

      However, 80% agricultural land is devoted to feeding livestock? So much more to be gained by halving meat consumption…

      2. Hickory and John, I agree 100% with what you both are saying. However, you must convince 7.8 billion people. They ain’t listening.

        My concern with overpopulation goes back to the mid-60s. I have read perhaps two dozen books on the subject. All but a couple of them has a last chapter that starts, something to the effect: “Here is What We Must Do.” Of course, we 7.8 billion people did nothing, and we will do nothing. Only a very tiny fraction of us read even one of those books.

        1. concern with overpopulation goes back to the mid-60s…we 7.8 billion people did nothing, and we will do nothing.

          The fertility rate in 1965 was above 5 children per woman. Now it’s below 2.5. So, people have done something.

          1. Nick G , your data maybe accurate ,the problem is we have already crossed the tipping point and are in overshoot . Too late , the train has left the station .

            1. The train is at full speed, a serious curve (“Peakoil”, climate change, water shortages) is ahead but the train is hardly diminishing speed.

          2. Gigantic quantities growing at small rates lead to even more gigantic quantities.

            1. The point is: fertility has been reduced dramatically in the last 55 years. People can change what they do, humans can effectively improve their lives and their societies.

              The reduction in fertility had many causes: medical R & D that produced better contraceptives, economic progress that made children less necessary to direct elder-care, national programs (like One-Child policies), family planning, women’s education and career choices, and personal choices about having children.

              People can change what they do!

        2. Yeh Ron. To true.
          I get pissed off when I see so many schemes to promote biofuels as ‘sustainable’ energy solutions.
          Sure as hell isn’t sustainable at anything more than very small scale.
          Ask the other primates and the turtles for their opinion on it.

      3. The meat substitute guys are working on this. A lot of meat consumption is in ground meat or sausage, and that is reasonably easy to imitate. For example 60% of American beef consumption is ground beef, and a large percentage of China’s huge demand for pork is also for filling dumplings etc. And a lot of chicken consumption is in chicken nuggets.
        Business is booming right now, and though it is still very small there is a good chance of making a real dent in meat consumption over the next decade.

        But this kind of “whataboutism” is pointless. Burning ethanol in the oversized jalopies suburbanites so favor is a terrible idea and should be stopped.

    1. There is only one legit reason to avoid getting vaccination for Covid-

      You would like to see the population decline, and viral death/suffocation is a mechanism that is fine with you.
      And you don’t mind if your family, friends, work associates, and perhaps yourself is part of that death list.

      The other “so-called reasons” are on based falsehoods, conspiracies theories, republican ideocracy, and distractions from the truth.

      1. Hickory At times it feels like I live in parallel realities. In the one people are still in panic mode for over a year, in the meantime they are trashing their small businesses, destroying their livelihoods, too scared to get together with family members, and still their elderly and vulnerable are dying in the hospitals and nursing homes all alone. Summer/riot season is coming on and sidelined communities are getting desperate and highly agitated. The only hope this reality has is for the vaccine. Problem is the results will soon be evident to many. this vaccine is only therapeutic, it does not give immunity or stop transmission, therefore it creates a breeding ground for mutant strains that will not be covered by the current vaccine so another year of waiting masks social distancing and lockdowns will be on the menu till the next vaccine comes out.

        In the other parallel reality occupying the same geographical locations, the people are tied to a more traditional mindset. They decided early on that they will reject the hype and deal with this virus just like they did with the seasonal flu. They continued living just like before except for the disruptions caused by their neighbors. They thrived financially doing work that their neighbors were either to scared or lazy to do. The virus ripped through and a number of elderly got fairly sick and a handful passed on surrounded by family. ( from hundreds of contacts and by extension several thousand the youngest individual that passed away from the virus was in his upper 70s.)

        Personally I took the virus quite seriously. Thankfully it was not as deadly as I was led to believe but it pushed me to search out and study for myself all the likely remedies/therapies. The primary risk factor for susceptibility outside of age seems to be metabolic health. Addressing metabolic health should have been high on the list of measures to combat covid. Encouraging people to minimize seed oils and carbs, exercising, and intermittent fasting should have filled the news. But instead we ended up with a population even more obese and metabolically sicker. Vitamin C is a no brainer; lower doses for prophylaxis and high doses for treatment. Vit D and/or sunshine/synthetic uv lights, and adequate dietary cholesterol is also a no brainer. As soon as Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin showed some promise the CDC NIH etc should have been rolling out the studies. but what do we get? Crickets………

        But if I had to pick one of these two extremes their is no question that the one is a little to simple for me but the other is totally insane. But I guess that makes me a moron, and a death cultist.

        1. “Problem is the results will soon be evident to many. this vaccine is only therapeutic, it does not give immunity or stop transmission, ”

          You say a lot of words for one who is so lost on this.

            1. It’s a good idea to check your sources carefully. In this case, The Washington Examiner is a right-wing propaganda newspaper. It’s easy to see: if you look at the articles, they’re clearly pandering to Trump followers.

              When reading sources like these, you have to take *anything* they say as something that has to be checked against more reliable sources before you rely on it.

              In the case of this particular article, if you read it carefully it you’ll notice that it specifically doesn’t say that the vaccine is ineffective against this variant, just that it may be *less* effective. Given that the Mrna vaccines are astonishingly effective (95% vs 50-60% for traditional vaccines) this article doesn’t tell us a lot.

            2. Farmlad- The data presented shows no such thing. More info will be needed to reach that type of conclusion. It would behoove you to read the news with a measure of analytical skill and skepticism.

              For example, this limited report data did not indicate that even a single case of sickness was detected among those reported on.

              Also, please realize that the threat that viral variants emerge that are more severe is very real, and is all the more reason to get vaccination done quickly (and universal wearing of masks). The longer the virus circulates among the population, the higher the risk that more severe variants will emerge. If so, all bets for economic recovery and ‘normalcy’ are off the table.

            3. It’s a good idea to check your sources carefully. In this case, The Washington Examiner is a right-wing propaganda newspaper.” ~ Nick G

              And Nick G is employed by the US government. Have we got that correct? If so, anyone see a problem with that?

        2. The vaccine might give cross immunity to coronaviruses. Or so the experts say. It makes people get the flu after vaccination, while Covid untreated gives people serious illness dependent on immune system health (age important). The key is the virus wreak havoc on some because the lack of basic immunity (identification of key parts of the virus infected protein), leading to a week or more of destruction to the body. Better get the vaccine than a delayed immune response to an unwelcome virus is what I say. Well, I am not an expert but I have asked quite a few. And that is what they all say.

          Here in Norway at least 90% are going to take the vaccine, because we are socially concerned by nature (has to do historically with how to survive long winters). And here we can actually call the leading scientists and get them to refuse what the “death profets” on the internet say about the vaccine. Most serious effects from vaccines are evident after 6 months and the only issue we have is from the AZ vaccine. And the vaccine does only contain organical component that the body breaks down pretty quickly. (just to your information; do what you want regarding the vaccine).

          1. “The vaccine might give cross immunity to coronaviruses. Or so the experts say. It makes people get the flu after vaccination, ”

            Holy crap. And I thought most of the idiot speak was in the USA.

            Next we will be hearing from people like FarmBoy and Kolb that the earth is flat, santa claus and god are real, molecules are make believe, and fossil are paper mache. And people like these vote. I know it because trump won the electoral college in 2016- can you believe the idiocy!

            Ron has been correct all along.

      2. “There is only one legit reason to avoid getting vaccination for Covid-…” ~ Hickory

        If you are wilfully ignorant, how can you be so sure?

    2. Other possible reasons to avoid the vaccine-
      -you would like to see the economic turmoil effects of the pandemic escalate and last for years.
      -you enjoy watching people who have lost jobs living on the side of the road
      -you enjoy seeing the long lines of cars in a funeral procession
      -you supply embalming fluid to the mortuary industry
      -or simply you are extremely fearful, or just stupid

        1. I looked at a few things on the website Farmlad linked to. It looks to me like he’s suffering from TPPP (Toxic Power of Positive Thinking). Ignore modern medicine, use diet, positive thinking etc as your way to health and success.

          I’ve had people close to me killed or disabled by TPPP.

    3. Argument #1 was that vaccine makers are the only industry with a shield from civil liability.

      Don’t the gun industry and the nuclear power industries have similar shields from immunity?

    4. Farmlad, please stop posting this anti-vax bullshit. I really don’t think there is anyone on this list dumb enough to take your advice, except perhaps Calean, and his mind, such as it is, is already made up. But just in case there are one or two others, you may be causing their deaths if they take your advice. So please shut the fuck up.

      1. Ron I do appreciate the oil production data that you make available and the perspective you add in that field. It has helped to form the basis of my preparation for the future of humanity on this planet. This is also my #1 ”go to” site for data to fight the Limitless energy cultists, the Elon fan bois, and the green utopians. But when I come over to the Non Petroleum side and see the one sided, left wing x status quo comments, I just have to correct some of that. So you or Dennis will need to hurt your pride and cancel me.

        But before I’m gone just one reminder to everyone. I continue to trust in Bitcoin as it continues to establish itself as the best money out there as we continue into the unpredictable nature of the future. and as of today you can still buy a decent portion with your fiat. Bitcoin is on track to establish truth in the world of economics, many of the changes will be quite painful to individuals and institutions that have been the biggest beneficiaries of the Cantillon Effect. This includes the healthcare and pharma industry being torn down to the ground and what comes out of that will hardly be recognizable compared to today. Government’s ability to fund the military and a host of other parasites will go down to almost nothing. Bitcoin is also playing it’s part in totally restructuring education including the evisceration of the price structure monopoly and sucking the demand out of real estate and farm land.

        1. Farmland,

          Could you explain, in your own words, the Cantillon Effect?

    5. Farmlad thanks for the link. The dude that posted it had covid and recovered from it as he states. So i don’t think he needs to have the vaccine anyways.

      I won’t be having the vaccine. I aint an anti-vaxxer. I was born in a poorer part of the world where vaccinations where compulsory and life saving. But i am skeptical of the current vaccines.

      Ron and Hickory have already pre-labeled me as stupid since my worldview probably differs to theirs.

      1. These vaccines have been tested worldwide and found to be very effective. They save millions of lives. They have shown extremely few side effects. So why are you skeptical? This is just science. You know vaccines have cured polio, smallpox, measles, and many, many other diseases. So why, dear God why are you skeptical? But your worldview makes you skeptical of this science. Could it have anything to do with your politics? It is very obvious that politics is driving this vaccine skepticism. I find that absolutely??? Sorry, I cannot think of an adjective strong enough to describe such a worldview.

        VERIFY: COVID vaccine can’t give you COVID; No credible reports of deaths due to vaccine

        CLAIM: The vaccine can give me COVID-19.

        FALSE: “The vaccines do not contain the full coronavirus or Sars-Cov-2. They just contain one protein of it. So, it is impossible for the vaccine to give you COVID,” Adalja said.

        And they’re a lot of other silly Covid claims debunked here. Check it out.

      2. IronMike. I don’t think you are inherently stupid. Quite the opposite.
        I think others reasons apply to you.

        You say you don’t trust the current vaccines. So, you trust the virus more?
        Seriously, the more people that do not get vaccinated as soon as available, the higher chance that more severe variants of the virus will have time to emerge.
        If so, it could make the current episode of economic disruption look like childs play.

        btw- The Chinese vaccine is only about 50% effective according to the new Brazilian data.- This was acknowledged by The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s director
        btw- this vaccine was is not mRNA derived vaccine, like Moderna and Pfizer.

        https://www.axios.com/chinese-covid-vaccines-low-efficacy-rates-official-f548e76b-d26b-4eab-be5c-cc1060d032f5.html

      3. You are not stupid. We all relay on networks. My networks say you should take the vaccine. In the UK 94% are taking the vaccine, so far. But there are serious forces out there to oppose the vaccine push, for sure. But they are not medical based, at least from not the prominent ones advicing me in Norway, which is my network.

      4. Issue that concern me is the likelihood of getting experiencing a cytokine storm after the second contact with the virus. Usually with corona type viruses, the vaccine provides the host with a strong immune system response during the first contact. However, coming in contact with the virus again, has a higher risk of triggering a cytokine storm, which can be fatal.

        https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349257945_Cytokine_Storm_Response_to_COVID-19_Vaccinations

        https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7550622/

        I also have doubts that the current vaccine will provide any long term immunity from the virus. To date, I don’t believe there has ever been a a successful long term vaccine for any corona type virus (Common cold, herpes, HIV, hepatitis, etc. I am concerned that other strains of the virus will will have a low efficiency for current vaccines & may trigger a cytokine storm. Previous vaccine development for corona type viruses resulted in cytokine storms during testing.

        I am also concerned of a getting a toxic shock syndrome to the vaccine, as I end up in the hospital due to a vaccination in the 1980s. The current vaccines also use polyethylene glycol (PEG) which is slightly toxic and can trigger toxic shock in a small number of people. I would also be concerned with PEG being sourced from China which might be contaminated. Also about 20% of practicing HCPs also refuse to be vaccinated.

        https://www.researchgate.net/publication/272514327_Anaphylactic_Shock_Caused_by_Ingestion_of_Polyethylene_Glycol

        Also seems to me that CDC\NCBI, etc are very very cautious & don’t want the vaccinated to stop wearing PPE. I don’t think they are very optimistic that the vaccines will end the pandemic. Another issue is that the gov’t health agencies have been less than honest with the public since when sars-cov-2 became an issue in late 2019. I think they are gambling that this vaccine rollout will solve the pandemic.

        For now, I stick with taking vitamin-D & remaining mostly isolated. Since I am at a very low risk of contracting it, I can wait a while to see what the effects are. I probably will wait until next year & assess the risk of taking a vaccine. We should know better in about a year if there are any major issues with the vaccines, or if they are long term effective.

        1. Kind of funny to read your attempt at science analysis. Funny if you weren’t trying to influence people about a potentially fatal illness (fatality rate about 2%) .
          The whole first paragraph about vaccines and cytokine storm are just silly. The references you give do not support the statement you made, at all.
          Maybe try to stick with areas that you have at least a little expertise.

          “I also have doubts that the current vaccine will provide any long term immunity from the virus.”
          Yes, no one knows that answer.
          Boosters may be necessary.
          Good luck to your parents.

    6. I had a look at the article and I didn’t find anything extremely objectionable (demonstrably false) but of all seventeen reasons provided the closest one to my way of thinking was “#16: CENSORSHIP…AND THE COMPLETE ABSENCE OF SCIENTIFIC DEBATE”

      From the very first day I heard about this “new virus” my mind immediately went to my go to remedy for infectious diseases, vitamin C. My go to sites for vitamin C related news all seemed to concur that this event was going to call for lots of supplementation with this vitamin but, I soon noticed that any suggestions that this vitamin would be useful in combating this virus led to labels of “false or misleading information” and censorship. Facebook and YouTube were particularly quick to do this this, claiming it was at the behest of the WHO. As someone who believes fervently in the healing power of this vitamin, this raised a giant red flag for me. A casual observation is that despite the censorship, there was an increased intake of fruits and vegetable and sales of this vitamin skyrocketed worldwide. I am far from being alone in my belief that this vitamin can make a substantial difference in outcomes.

      As time went by I warmed up to the idea that vitamin D is equally important in the body’s ability to mount an appropriate immune response. Vitamin D has been put forward as a crucial immuno-modulator, de-activating the immune system once the virus has been dealt with instead of progressing to the hyper inflammatory stage (sepsis like symptoms) , often leading to death. So I have added vitamin D to my essential list of supplements. In the case of this vitamin the dosage needed ro maintain what is now being called a sufficient level is in the region of 10 times the RDA, the RDA representing the minimum amount required to avoid severe deficiency.

      I am inclined to follow the recommendations of the doctors who make up the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance (Not to be confused with the Trump supporting group, America’s Frontline Doctors).
      At their web site ( flccc.net ) they have a full set of recommended treatment protocols for pre-exposure prophylaxis, post-exposure prophylaxis (asymptomatic) and treatment for the early symptomatic phase that can be used withiut having to see your doctor. They recommend using a pulse oximeter to monitor your oxygen levels once you become symptomatic. They have an expanded set of protocols for use by doctors to treat those that require medical attention. They have developed extensive treatment options for all stages of this disease and have been very successful in preventing death relative to those who ignore their advice. How doctors that agree with this group treat this disease is oceans away from the recommendations from the WHO and most public health bodies who continue to claim that there are no effective treatments for this disease!

      Then there’s this drug called ivermectin that was developed to treat diseases caused by parasites (worms) back in the mid seventies with use beginning in the eighties. While “everybody” was focused on vaccines there were some people experimenting with existing drug and one of these experiments shown that ivermectin eliminated the virus in 48 hours in vitro (at much higher concentrations than have ever been achieved with this drug in human doses). This resulted in people trying the long established doses for this drug on patients with covid and experiencing very encouraging results. ( See: Local Doctor Tries New Coronavirus Drug Treatment published April 13,2020, two weeks after the treatment was first tried). This led to a four hospital system in Broward County, Florida carrying out one of the first clinical trials of ivermectin ( The ICON Trial). The folks at the FLCCC Alliance took note of this drug after looking at the data that had accumulated by October,and got very excited about it, adding it to their treatment protocol. I have posted about the exploits of the FLCCC Alliance before so I’ll stop there.

      The point is that there is a cadre of maverick doctors all over the world that have not toed the WHO line and are confident that they can treat and save the lives of people who contract this disease, even those at high risk of dying. These doctors are being ignored, maligned, accused of being anti-vaxxers and quacks despite the fact that they were saving lives long before vaccines were available. (The first patient treated with ivermectin was back in late March last year and the FLCCC Alliance members were seeing recovery rates in the mid ninety percent range in the middle of last year when others couldn’t even come close). I find the fact that the exploits of these doctors have been received with such doubt and caution highly suspicious. The vaccines however seem to have been accepted with almost wild abandon! Why all this skepticism about treatments that have proven remarkably effective? (see ivmmeta.com and vdmeta.com) It’s as if most people are not even interested in trying to treat this disease.

      From the web site covid19stats.live of the 136,639,286 cases confirmed so far from positive test results, 109,865,977 (80%) are listed as recovered and 2,949,408 (2.2%) are listed as deceased, meaning 97.8% of all the people who have tested positive have not died. When one considers all the asymptomatic people or people who were otherwise not tested, the fatality rates are probably a lot lower. In my neck of the woods the deaths are dominated by the elderly. I suspect that many of them had underlying complications from conditions that are common in the elderly and it is my belief that vitamin D insufficiency is at the root of a lot of it . I am acquainted with a 30 year old woman that died and she was morbidly obese and very dark skinned both of which suggest she might have had insufficient levels of vitamin D.

      So we have a disease that is hitting the elderly and people with marginal health very hard. There are effective treatments (supplements and ivermectin as per the FLCCC Alliance). Why then is there such urgency to do blanket vaccinations of entire populations? Why are they trying to get children involved in vaccination programs? Why not focus on the at risk groups and leave young and healthy people out of it? Despite the fact that I am almost 60, I am very confident that my immune system is up to the task and in the off chance that it isn’t, there’s always ivermectin (if only the WHO and my local health authorities would stop restricting access to it). What is the danger in opting for natural, acquired immunity instead of the vaccines? Apart from my age I have nothing to suggest I am at serious risk from this disease. I am far more likely to die of a car accident or as a victim of the violent crime that is rampant in my country, than I am to die from this disease.

      Below is a graphic comparing the new covid cases of Portugal, Nigeria, South Africa and Zimbabwe since March last year. Ivermectin is widely used in all four countries With the fall in cases following closely after the mass adoption of ivermectin. Portugal has fully vaccinated 6.1% of their population with 15.3% having had at least one dose. Nigeria and South Africa have each given about 0.5% of their population at least one dose. Zimbabwe has administered at least one dose to 1.3% of their population. I invite readers to compare these 4 countries to Israel, the UK and the US that have administered at least one dose to 58.8%, 48.2% and 36.3% of their populations respectively. All this data was accessed by searching for “covid cases country-name” using Google.

      After doing the comparison of the data for the first word countries that have chosen the vaccine route against one EU nation (the least wealthy) and three African countries that appear to have opted for ivermectin, why should I choose to take the vaccine?

  6. This just in:

    Australia’s main grid hits record renewables high of 56 per cent on Sunday

    Australia’s main grid reached a record level of renewables in its electricity supply, and a record level of wind and solar penetration on Sunday.

    The peak renewables share appears to have reached 55.9 per cent at 11.05am on Sunday morning, with wind and solar alone providing 53.4 per cent, according to the OpenNem data page. However, other sources, such as NEMLog, claimed a higher percentage was reached, 56.1 per cent, at 1.15pm.

    Either way, the share of renewables was significant, and certainly a record level in terms of market share on a day with strong wind conditions, generally sunny conditions and low weekend demand.

    The share of renewables also held at more than 50 per cent for about six hours of the day – from 9am to 3pm – also likely a record. It also was above 50 per cent for several hours on Saturday. The share of gas fell to just 1.3 per cent, and coal to around 42 per cent.

    1. Meanwhile,

      AUSTRALIA: AN EMISSIONS SUPER-POWER

      “New government figures show that the GHG emissions from Australia’s exported fossil fuels have increased 4.4% between 2018 to 2019 (OCE, 2020). Not only is Australia a laggard in meeting its UN Paris emission reduction targets, it is now the world’s largest exporter of coal and gas. In fact, the emissions from Australia’s exported fossil fuels are now greater than Germany’s domestic emissions.”

      BTW Australia is also one of the world’s highest per capita CO2 emitters. Australia’s carbon footprint, including exports, is nine times higher than China’s, four times that of the US, and 37 times that of India. Do you have a reason for always ignoring these “inconvenient truths” when you post?

      https://climatejustice.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Australia-_-an-emissions-super-power.pdf

      1. The problem with counting consumption and production is that you are effectively counting everything twice. If roughly the same amount is produced as consumed, which is what you might expect, then your logic would result in calculating twice as much carbon dioxide output as really occurs.

        For example, alarming claims about Australia’s exports would result is reducing similar claims about China’s consumption, since China imports from Australia. Anything else would be misleading.

        So choose your poison — complain about the producers or the consumers, but not both in the same breath.

        1. Nonsense. One fundamental problem is the Paris Agreement, which global leaders say is critical to halting climate change this century. But individual country’s progress is based on how much they reduce their own emissions within their borders — not by the impact their products have across the world in their entirety. In the case of Australia, its energy companies have no plans to curtail their production. Therein lies the dilemma.

          1. Production doesn’t matter. Only consumption matters.

            Saudi Arabia isn’t going to stop exporting oil, and nor is Russia or Texas (or Norway, or Australia for coal). The only way to reduce emissions is to stop burning oil, or gas, or coal. Saudi Arabia and the rest are going to be drowning in their own oil, eventually. It will be unsellable. A stranded asset.

            And then oil and gas (and coal!) exporters will have to find something else to do besides living off the labor of their customers. That’s gonna be a big adjustment…

            1. “Production doesn’t matter. Only consumption matters.”

              I think that is a wise statement Nick.

            2. Nah, Saudi Arabia and Russia are just going to reduce oil (and maybe gas) production and expose our fossil fuel dependency. At the very least the future of the energy markets are going to be fluctulant. The producing countries are doing themselves a favour by reducing their consumption, and SA seems to move in that direction. Norway is doing it big time; soon you would have to hire a detective to find CO2 emissions in the country.

        2. Pumping oil out of ground, or digging up coal, does not in itself produce GHG emissions. For instance, some oil is used for plastic, in China coal is used as a petrochemical input. If people stop burning FF, it won’t matter how much is offered for sale or for export – it simply won’t be used.

          Burning fossil fuel is what produces CO2 emissions, so it’s the consumers (i.e. burners) of FF that should be counted.

      2. Doug , interesting . Similar to , move all manufacturing to China and then claim that your carbon footprint is low .

        1. That is in effect what the West claims when they are bitching about |China’s CC footprint -Every time you import something (from China) you export pollution.

    2. There are a lot of desert areas in Australia which can be covered by solar panels unlike some other countries whose landscapes are overcrowded.

      1. JFF, the problem with putting solar panels in the desert is dust and cleaning with fresh water in an already water starved area . A plan to put a massive solar farm in North Africa and link it to the grid in Europe was dropped for this very reason .

    1. Ron , I remember Fareed’s dad Rafiq Zakaria who was a MP from Bombay (Mumbai) in the 60’s or 70’s . I would presume his mother would be anything but + 90 now . So was it Covid or just natural death ? In India to classify all deaths for the aged is now ” Covid” to avoid legal repercussions . SOP . I do not wish to argue this issue but just pointing out a fact . Covid is a reality and anyone who denies it is an idiot . Period .

      1. CNN’s Fareed Zakaria Pays Moving Tribute to His Mother After She Passes Away from Covid-Related Complications

        CNN’s Fareed Zakaria closed his program Sunday with a moving tribute to his mother Fatma Zakaria, who passed away from covid-related complications at 85.

        “If there’s a single person most responsible for who I am today, and the things that I have achieved in the world, large or small, it’s my mother,” he said.

        Zakaria got very personal sharing his mother’s story with viewers, including her years and years of work as a journalist.

        “The greatest sign of her love for her children was that she encouraged all of us to go to America for college, even though she knew that it could well mean we could end up staying here.”

        Zakaria told viewers that because, due to the pandemic, he could not see his mother in India one last time before she passed, “I thought I might take this opportunity and say: goodbye, ma. I love you.”

    1. Holy crap that is interesting reading, particularly the description of the event-
      “The initial wall of earth gouged outward at the moment of impact is more than 20 miles high; the transitory cavity nearly breaches Earth’s mantle, and when the cavity rebounds to form the delayed “vertical sploosh,” the earth rises at over 1,000 mph to heights taller than Mount Everest. Within minutes this mountain almost entirely collapses in a series of secondary explosions,… “

    2. OFM Thanks for the link. Well worth it and enjoyable to boot.

      And to think that this is just one of the 100+ verified impact craters on earth though it’s one of the bigger ones. And multiply that by 100 for an estimation of similar sized objects exploding as they entered our atmosphere since they didn’t have enough iron content to hold together till impact like the Chicxulub object.

      I’m even more interested in the impact events that have occurred while we humans were here and how that has affected our history legends religions and culture. I feel fortunate being alive during this time when we are starting to piece so many things together in order to be able to better understand our past and eventually our future as a species. https://cosmictusk.com/younger-dryas-impact-hypothesis-bibliography-and-paper-archive/

    1. Groan…

      Ivermectin again.

      Noticed that one of the comments includes “Fauci and Gates must be tried and then swing. Rothschild and Rockefeller we have not overlooked you.”

      1. Below is a graphic comparing the new covid cases of Portugal, Nigeria, South Africa and Zimbabwe since March last year. Ivermectin is widely used in all four countries With the fall in cases following closely after the mass adoption of ivermectin. Portugal has fully vaccinated 6.1% of their population with 15.3% having had at least one dose. Nigeria and South Africa have each given about 0.5% of their population at least one dose. Zimbabwe has administered at least one dose to 1.3% of their population.

        What do you think accounts for the decline in new cases in these countries? What is your basis for implying that ivermectin is not effective?

        1. Conclusions without evidence.

          The international groups that have looked at the data point out there’s no compelling evidence that Ivermectin and Hydroxychoroquine have any beneficial effect. The studies so far are small and not designed to reach those conclusions.

          Ivermectin is commonly used for treating parasites, and the doctors that prescribe it point out that ivermectin causes neurological problems in people taking it for parasitic infections. The dosages proposed for Covid-19 are much higher, and will lead to additional problems. So it’s not just a case of ‘can’t hurt to try it’.

          There are places where Ivermectin is being tested, and the recommendations are that it only be used in a clinical setting as the complications from Ivermectin are severe.

          No evidence.

          There are all kinds of reasons why the numbers of covid cases decrease. The biggest ones, and the ones leading to low case counts in my area is that people are distancing, there’s lot of testing, and positive cases are isolating.

          There are people who believe that vagina-scented candles prevent covid infections. There’s no evidence for that either.

          1. No evidence? Take a look at https://ivmmeta.com/

            We are being fed a very carefully crafted narrative. That narrative is, “THERE ARE NO EFFECTIVE TREATMENTS FOR THIS DISEASE HENCE THERE ARE ABSOLUTELY NO ALTERNATIVES TO THE VACCINES!”

            Look at the data and think for yourselves folks! That narrative is just not true!

            Here’s a source for some more very interesting data: https://vdmeta.com/

            Here is an intersting quote from the latest FLCCC press release (April 9) regarding an article published in the Washington Post on April 8

            Rather than completely taking the recommendation of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) at face value, it is our hope that journalists will begin to raise questions around the sudden restrictive approach that the agency is taking in requiring an unprecedented number of expensive clinical trials before recommending a drug for treating COVID-19. Their actions set a precedent that will likely prevent any drug from being repurposed unless it presents a high enough profit margin to make the additional clinical trials worth the investment from a corporate sponsor. In other words, trials are quite expensive making the approval of drugs to be first based on their ability to turn a profit before being submitted for approval. The original intent of the approval, their ability to safely provide a viable public health solution, falls to second place.

          2. Ivermectin is commonly used for treating parasites, and the doctors that prescribe it point out that ivermectin causes neurological problems in people taking it for parasitic infections. The dosages proposed for Covid-19 are much higher, and will lead to additional problems

            Really?
            COVID-19: States ignore WHO recommendation on Ivermectin, here’s what doctor who wrote white paper on the drug has to say

            It must be noted that Dr Surya Kant, along with some other health experts of India, wrote a white paper on Ivermectin last year and it was displayed on the website of the World Health Organization. Dr Surya Kant also emphasized that this drug reduces the replication rate of the infection by several thousand times. It was only after this white paper when Uttar Pradesh government started using the drug. UP was the first state to use Ivermectin for treatment of COVID-19 and it has been extensively used since then, the doctor of KGMU said.
            “
            Not only Uttar Pradesh, governments of West Bengal, Maharashtra, and Assam too included Ivermectin in their protocol for the treatment of COVID-19,” he added.

            When asked about the lack of clinical trial data on Ivermectin, Dr Surya Kant said that over 40 such trials are underway, and not one has reported any major side effects yet. “More than 40 clinical trials are underway, including eight in India. This includes the most prestigious institute in India i.e. AIIMS Delhi. The trial underway at AIIMS is also on five different types of doses of Ivermectin, which is a very important issue. So, all kinds of trials are underway. My whitepaper was published in the month of July 2020. In the whitepaper, 19 Indian experts have contributed. They collected and compiled all data available on Ivermectin since 1981, when the drug was introduced to the world.

            1. That’s all fine. The quotes referred to a study from 9 months ago.

              Here’s one from two weeks ago.
              https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/who-advises-that-ivermectin-only-be-used-to-treat-covid-19-within-clinical-trials

              Inconclusive results.

              It’s a fine idea to test off-label uses for existing drugs, but until the evidence is in, it’s just an ill-informed bandwagon. We have seen that the hydoxychloroquine bandwagon didn’t seem to go anywhere.

              Just wait for it …the studies will be completed, reviewed, and recommendations will follow.

            2. Parasites are living organisms. That makes them relatively easy to attack with chemicals that interrupt the processes that keep them alive.

              Viruses are not living organisms, and reproduce by hijacking the cell functions of the host organism. This makes them much more difficult to attack. The best defense against viruses are vaccinations, which alert the host body to the danger before infection occurs and leave the hard work to the advanced mammalian immune system, and methods that interrupt the spread of the disease like social distancing, condoms, providing clean water etc.

              There is no obvious reason why a drug that is effective against parasites should work on viruses. Ivermectin seems to reduce initial infection by some viruses in very high concentrations, but no safe effective formulation is known yet.

            3. @GerryF, If you had bothered to look at the meta-analysis of all the studies available at ivmmeta.com (last update April 10) you would see the mountains of evidence that the ivermectin proponents are referring to. Out of 50 studies, 2 are inconclusive but, the efficacy of the drug has been called into question on the basis of these two studies. Just by chance(?) the lead author of the most often cited inconclusive study reported receiving grants and fees from pharmaceutical companies involved in development of vaccines.

              I just cannot understand the vitriol directed at anybody that suggests that vaccines are not the only hope for ending this pandemic. Or for that matter the derision directed at anyone who dares to suggest that there may be avenues for treating covid patients that could reduce suffering and deaths. It is mind boggling to me that so many people are not just willing but anxious to place the responsibility for their own health in the hands of others! Such good sheeple!

              A buddy of mine who lives with a nurse who works at a covid hospital in Brazil sent me a picture of the month’s supply of ivermectin (made in Brazil) he bought today. Less than 4 US dollars for a months supply and neither he or his girlfriend have contracted the disease even though she has been working with covid patients since the middle of last year.

            4. Island boy: if you get a bad case of Covid ask for ivermectin. One of my colleagues got covid and had been treated using ivermectin with positive results. I suspect the main drive for vaccines is that the provide immunity and ivermectin isn’t a prophylaxis. It only works after infection. If the health policy officials didn’t dismiss Ivermection as a treatment option, it would lead to a lot less people willing to get vaccinated.

              Recall back in March\April with Health Policy officials told the public not to use PPE since it would prevent it. They lied because there was a severe shortage of PPE for HCPs. Dr Kory (FLCCC) had run a clinical study of using ivermection and had made several passion pleas to get ivermection to help save lives.

            6. “Ivermectin is the new hydroxychloroquine. ”

              Well then , I guess the doctorate of Dr. Tess Lawrie MD. PhD. isn’t worth the paper it’s written on and her company The Evidence-Based Medicine Consultancy Ltd has taken money for consultancy work from the UK’s NHS and the WHO on a false pretense!

              Did you know “78% of those hospitalized, ventilated or dead from covid have been overweight (or obese)”? Yeah just heard that on Real Time with Bill Maher New Rule: Give It to Me Straight, Doc | Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO). Bill is with me on the vitamins and nutrition thing. Telling me that there are no effective treatments for something when I know otherwise, really engenders my trust!

              Two of the deaths in my neck of the woods over the past couple of weeks, one 30 year old female and a 60 year old male, were people I know who were very overweight! A university lecturer that also has a talk show on radio has recovered after a rough experience. He was very dark skinned but not overweight and instead of just taking a wait and see attitude, threw the kitchen sink at it.

            7. “Viruses are not living organisms.” ~ Alimbiquated

              “In evolution, viruses are an important means of horizontal gene transfer, which increases genetic diversity in a way analogous to sexual reproduction. Viruses are considered by some biologists to be a life form, because they carry genetic material, reproduce, and evolve through natural selection, although they lack the key characteristics, such as cell structure, that are generally considered necessary criteria for life. Because they possess some but not all such qualities, viruses have been described as ‘organisms at the edge of life’…” ~ Wikipedia

      2. For comparison to the four country case I presented earlier, below is a graphic showing the four territories with the highest per capita rates of vaccination. Gibraltar with a population of less than 34,000 has the highest vaccination rate, easily achieved for such a small population. Israel and the UAE both have populations of less than 10 million with the Isle of Man (UK) having a population of less than 85,000. I submit that these are NOT good examples of how this pandemic can be ended using vaccines!

  11. No surprises here.

    HEAT-TRAPPING METHANE SURGED IN 2020

    “Methane concentrations in the atmosphere surged at a record rate in 2020. The Earth-warming gas increased by 14.7 parts per billion, the largest annual rise since scientists started taking measurements in the 1980s…

    There’s growing evidence that methane from some direct human sources may be higher than previous estimates suggest. A number of recent studies have suggested that methane leaks are widespread in oil and gas infrastructure and that these emissions are often much larger than official estimates would indicate.”

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heat-trapping-methane-surged-in-2020/

    And, just last week, NOAA announced that atmospheric CO2 had exceeded 420 parts per million for the first time since scientists started taking measurements in the 1950s. BTW Once it’s added to the atmosphere CO2 hangs around for a long time: between 300 to 1,000 years, so you don’t have to worry about EVs denting its presence, at least for many generations.

    Now, let’s hear it from the “It’s only trace amounts so it can’t hurt you.” boys.

    1. Imagine for a moment that this methane is causing the climate to change?

      So what? Humans will adapt to changing conditions like we always have.

      1. Adam , I seriously hope that was a post made in sarcasm . If in seriousness then —- .

        1. Humans have been good throughout history adapting to changing living conditions as needed. I have no doubt we will continue to do the same if there’s ever any climate change requiring us to.

          1. Adam , Ron got your post correctly as your follow up post indicates . I do not wish to engage with members of the ” flat earth ” society , so i will just do something else .

      2. No HH, I don’t think it was sarcasm, this man is serious.

        Adam, there is no doubt whatsoever that methane, along with CO2, is causing global warming. And, no doubt, humans will survive. But environmental chaos it causes will cause many millions, perhaps billions, to perish. And that is not to mention most of the wildlife on earth will perish also.

        But you say “So what?” What do billions of human lives matter? What do over half the wildlife on earth matter?

        Don’t tell me, let me guess. You are a right-wing Republican Bible-thumping Christian.

      3. In other words, you don’t care if millions drown. You’re a “big picture” guy.

        This kind of thinking sounds cool when you are 12, but grown ups should know better.

    2. Methane is a hydrocarbon. Hydrogen + Carbon. Organic molecules. Expelled naturally as a result of eating a lot of TexMex cuisine.

      1. Yup, that’s true.

        Very much larger quantities were sequestered away as hydrocarbons in geological storage. Until recently.

  12. “Don’t tell me, let me guess. You are a right-wing Republican Bible-thumping Christian.”

    Not so.

    People such as a ” right-wing Republican Bible-thumping Christian” simply don’t believe in man made or forced climate change.

    I’m pretty sure I know as many of this sort as you do, lol.

    Now of course there are plenty of right wing Bible thumpers who are about as far from being Christians as it’s possible to be.

    1. Mac, Adam never said he believed it. He said: “Imagine for a moment that this methane is causing the climate to change?” Believing something and imagine it are two entirely different things. Have you ever heard John Lennon’s song “Imagine”? His language told me that he didn’t believe it. Otherwise he would not have said “imagine”.

      At any rate, that is not a hard and fast rule. When you are speaking of worldviews among anyone, be it Republicans, Democrats, Christians, or Atheist, there are no hard and fast rules.

      1. “Imagine there’s no heaven
        It’s easy if you try
        No hell below us
        Above us only sky
        Imagine all the people living for today”

        Perhaps substitute the word “visualize” for “imagine”, and you’ll get closer to his meaning (admittedly, it’s less poetic).

        I think Lennon is asking the audience to break free of their current negative culture and join him in a better approach to living. And, yes….he believes in that better approach.

      2. Back atcha Ron,
        Maybe “Bible thumper” means something to you that it doesn’t mean to me.

        My definition of Bible thumper is someone, anyone, who takes it loudly and literally.
        I have met and know at least fifty such people as of today, in my local community, that I can call by their first name, without a mistake, and or at least only a few mistakes, I’m getting old myself, lol. Over half of them are kin to me, one way or another.

        I’ve probably met a couple of hundred more of them, due to going to various funerals, weddings, family gatherings, etc.

        Not a one of them believes man has the power to change the climate. Not a one of them has ever read single book about real science. Most of them haven’t EVER read a book, except maybe something forced on them back in elementary school, period, other than their Bible. Any books they have read are about coon dogs, hot rod cars, guns, and maybe once in a while football or baseball, etc.

        1. OFM, I took Ron to mean “bible-believer” and not a “bible-preacher”. Either way you’re describing people who read the bible and not much else. I think the influence of such evangelicals (and their hatred of “secular humanism”) has far more influence on GOP and politics than most people realize…

          1. Maybe so….. but as I see things nuance is extremely important and all too often overlooked, especially in public debates about politics. It takes only one or two percent of the people voting in half of our elections these days to switch sides to change the outcome and often far less than that.

            “. I think the influence of such evangelicals (and their hatred of “secular humanism”) has far more influence on GOP and politics than most people realize…”

            I totally agree with you on this point, and for what it’s worth, I agree with Ron in general terms just about all the time, but disagree with him on some minor points such as this one.
            In some states, and in some districts in other states, there are enough of this sort to control state and local politics, and to send Trump type congress critters to Washington.

            This kind of voter may or may not be a Bible thumper. I know a fair number of people who take their Bible seriously, and are at least technically literate, who don’t go to the public extreme of being a “thumper” but rather keep their beliefs and values mostly to themselves……. in public at least.

            Thumpers don’t believe in evolution, or forced climate change, etc. Ask a dozen or a hundred of them, and you will be laughed at for even asking, for being so stupid as to be taken in by them there libtard commie dimrats, lol.

            Of course it’s totally outside their world view to consider the possibility that THEY are the suckers, lol.

            Furthermore, if the truth is told, there has historically been and remains a HUGE amount of survival value or conferred fitness associated with being a practicing member of a well established religion.

            This OUGHT to be PERFECTLY obvious to anybody who actually knows shit from apple butter about history, religion, politics, etc,……. but I’m on the record as acknowledging that most well educated liberals fail to appreciate such an OBVIOUS fact.

            And I notice that nobody here in this forum, with nearly all of us excepting the trolls, being scientifically literate, takes the trouble to bad mouth pious Christians such as Jimmy Carter, MLK, etc, or to deny that they have been major influences for the good of our society.

          2. 25 percent of elected officials in the 117th Congress deny that climate change is real and caused by humans.

            Yes, we are that stupid.

          1. Sorry Ron, but I’m sort of sensitive, more than most people, to the nuances associated with such terms as Bible thumper.

            I just about always agree with you on every major point, but quibble about some minor ones such as this one.

            These things matter in terms of understanding politics and how and why people vote.

            1. Mac, I don’t really give a shit. That’s just how I talk and will continue to do so. I am fully aware of the fact that a few right-wing Republicans are not white supremacists, but most of them are. I am fully aware that a few right-wing Republicans do not hate gays, but most of them do. I am fully aware of the fact that a few right-wing Republicans are not Bible thumpers, but most of them are. (And I don’t really care if you have a different definition for “Bible Thumper” than I do.)

              I know why Bible thumpers voted for Trump. They thought he would appoint judges that will overturn Row V. Wade. They thought he would make the laws of God the laws of the country. They thought he would bring God back into schools. They voted for him because they have been brainwashed from birth with their stupid religion and thought Trump was their Savior.

              They can be pitied for their brainwashing but believing Trump when he said: “I won, I won by a lot, but the election was stolen”, proves that they are just stupid as shit.

              That is all I have to say on the subject. I will not reply to your rebuttal.

      1. That would explain a lot.

        But to the bigger point, many people confuse the ability of an average individual person to afford a particular price for energy with the ability of the collectively humanity ability to pay for energy.
        1,000,000,000 more people will be added to the ranks by 2035.
        We will be short on liquid fuel (even if prices get much higher) in this decade. Can battery production keep up in the race against time (oil depletion)?

        1. ” Can battery production keep up in the race against time (oil depletion)?”

          That’s the sixty four TRILLION dollar question, lol.

          I used to be a hard core doomer, but in recent years I have come to believe that there’s a fair shot that some or maybe even most of us in prosperous countries with substantial remaining endowments of natural resources will be able to pull thru the coming crash by way of changing their lifestyles, adopting new technologies, and simply lowering their standard of living in terms of resource consumption.

          But this is not necessarily going to be such a horrible sacrifice.

          I can enjoy a week off, if I can ever get a week free of obligations, doing dozens of things that don’t involve long distance travel, expensive restaurants, outrageously priced tickets for admission, etc.

          We can get back to the point that we enjoy a local high school baseball game, played by local kids, whose parents we actually know, as much as a pro game, lol.

        2. “To the bigger point”, if humans transportation is restricted. In a sense, it makes earth larger for the individual and harder for humans to damage the environment. With an extra billion, maybe that would be a good thing.

          You think the oil market will be under supplied by 2030? I’m not convinced that’s a given.

          Battery production, Resource restricted?

          1. It is very possible that the global supply of batteries will fail to keep up with demand in the next 10-15 years.
            The bottleneck could be things like mining, ore processing, battery component (anodes and such) manufacturing.

            The whole supply chain really needs to be ramped up big-time to match the pending demand tsunami.

            This is a complicated sector, and I am just echoing concerns of others who specialize in the field.

    1. Don’t forget air conditioners. 😉

      10 NEW AIR CONDITIONERS EVERY SECOND: HOW TO STAY COOL ON A WARMING PLANET

      “A staggering three quarters of the world’s population will be at risk from extreme heat as the planet warms, causing skyrocketing demand for air conditioning and requiring massively more energy generation. Yet plans to cope with this need are being largely ignored by richer countries with generally cooler climates, where most research bodies are based.

      Over the next 30 years, two to four billion people will need air conditioning installed in their homes to avoid health risks such as heatstroke. This will mean 10 air conditioning units will need to be installed every second until 2050. In turn, this will produce a tripling of energy demand, all while nations attempt to reduce emissions and strive towards energy efficiency.”

      https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrvetter/2020/10/20/10-new-air-conditioners-every-second-how-to-stay-cool-on-a-warming-planet/?sh=12800d1a8cc4

      1. I don’t thing AC will be a problem. Now that Oil production likely has permanently peaked the cost of energy is going to keep on getting more expensive every year. I suspect that natural gas peak production isn’t to far off.

        The world is saturated in debt, and most nations are using inflation to escape. I suspect by 2030 (barring a nuclear war before then) much of the world will demoted to third world living standards. The US is slowly turning in a third world nation. Visit just about any major US city and you will find large homeless camping on the streets (this started before Covid). Once the rental\mortgage moratorium ends I suspect the US homeless population will grow by at least 1M people. 20% of all us renters are behind in rent.

        The crisis of today are largely attributed to over population. No gov’t policies are going to fix anything and the only solution is a major reduction in the global population. Unfortunately this is not going to happen in a nice way. All the gov’t policies do is accelerate the diverging economic system which a very few people own just about everything and the bottom 90% of the public end up in deep poverty (ie 21 century version of the robber barons).

    2. I’m still waiting for somebody to explain to me in language comprehensible to a layman why bit coin won’t simply collapse someday in a crisis of confidence, so that nobody will continue to accept it.

      I don’t care how damned good security and so forth is, I still strongly suspect that say a sovereign government with ample resources could simply destroy bitcoin if the decision is made to do so.

        1. Very interesting reading Bob.
          To OFMs point, I think it all could collapse one fine day.
          That would put it in the same camp as the US Dollar.

          So far I’ve been amazed at the central bankers of Europe, Japan and N. America ability to keep the monetary system rolling and kick the can (of crises/collapse of money) down the road.
          Rather than outright bitcoin collapse, I suspect someday it will become convertible to another form that is acceptable to and controllable by governments.
          1 bitcoin equals just how many digital yuan?
          And just how many goats?

          1. Don’t know about goats, but for one close acquaintance of mine, 1BTC just equaled 1 LRMY Tesla.

            1. Had both my goats killed by a mountain lion.
              There is chaos in the system.

      2. OFM –You are right about bitcoin. And as the article I linked points out, In previous crashes it crashed harder than gold in similar circumstances.

        It’s a cool technology in a lot of ways, but it could easily go the way of MySpace, and probably will. For one thing, there is already better technology out there, and software keeps improving. In fact there are already hundreds of them around now, e.g. Eretheum, LiteCoin, DogeCoin, Cardano, Polkadot, Stellar, Chainlink, etc etc. I think bitcoin will be the first of a series of similar technologies that hits the big time.

        The only reason people have faith in bitcoin is that other people have faith in bitcoin. The same is true of gold of course, but gold has much deeper cultural ties. Like gold, bitcoin isn’t much use as a currency, and has limited uses elsewhere.

      3. In my mind; Bitcoin is basically a distributed ledger with thousands of nodes across the world with their own copies of the ledger. The miners are economically incentivized to secure this transaction history ” maintaining the record of which UTXO’s are in which address. In the early days It would have been more possible for governments to kill it but the possibility of it sprouting up again under a more favorable environment would always be possible if not likely. But the fact that it is now a trillion $ market and stopping for nothing is proving the impossibility of destroying this ledger without shutting down the internet for ever.

        For a powerful entity ” US Government” to kill bitcoin they would need to control >51% of the mining output for the duration of the time that they intend to keep the bitcoin ledger tied up. Keep in mind; The miners are highly incentivized financially to keep the bitcoin ledger true so cooperation would need to be enforced with extreme measures.

        Governments can ban and punish the use of bitcoin in their countries but that only multiplies the economic incentives for their rival governments to endorse bitcoin. Even so; they will only be able to crush the smaller fish while the OGs with most of the bitcoin, that have done their due diligence to hide most of their holdings will go undetected just to reappear in supportive jurisdictions.

        As the whole ecosystem matures the bitcoin OGs are now in a financial position to lobby governments all over the world. And as people in power become aware of the difficulty to stop bitcoin the next step soon becomes clear; to personally Get all in as soon and as hard as possible. So the opposition is being destroyed almost as soon as they figure out what they are up against.

        Just to be clear; none of the other cryptos are even close to this level of security. Most have a single attack vector, namely a group of core individuals that can be threatened pressured and eliminated if needed. Bitcoin vastly more decentralized so no one or group of individuals have the power to disrupt the ledger.

        There is a lot more nuance to the whole game theory so I suggest the following.

        https://quillette.com/2021/02/21/can-governments-stop-bitcoin/
        l
        or in audio https://bitcoinaudible.com/can-governments-stop-bitcoin/

        1. Farmlad —
          Bitcoin is open source so by definition it has no unique selling points except its popularity. Anyone can copy it. I think that is the point OFM was making.

      4. 1. Its not a widely traded access. Most BTC holders hord it so there is very little transactions.
        2. Permenent lose off BTC coins: do to data loss or lost media. My guess over 1M of the 21M coins available have already been lost.
        3. Very slow transactions. I believe it can take a few hours per transactions. Imagine trying to use BTC to by a cup of coffee & having to wait an hour+ before the payment transaction completes. The more BTC is use the longer the transactional time as the block-chain grows with each transaction.
        4. Lots of fraud. A lot of BTC banks either got hacked or the company owners ran off with their clients Money (MtGox, Binance, etc).
        5. Very volitile price movements, I believe BTC valutions changes by 5% on any given day. As long as it volitile it will be hard for business to price goods & services. Imagine going into a grocery store finding your BTC buys 5% more or less items every day. Or imagine if your the clerk having to alter the prices of all your items every day.
        6. I suspect there are a lot of fake BTC coins as people who trade them don’t have the all the skills to properly check them. I suspect a few institutional investors got a bunch of fake coins that then never bother to check. Time will tell.

        I think at some point the BTC mania will crash back down at some point. Someone will dump a lot of coins, and if there are no buyers, I could see BTC crashing back down below 10K. if it has a hard crash people will lose faith in it, just like the did with other asset manias in the past.

  15. So, what percent of these rigs run on batteries? My guess, zero!

    “UNPRECEDENTED DEMAND”: RV SALES HIT RECORD IN FEBRUARY, ON PACE FOR BLOWOUT 2021

    “According to the recent study commissioned by RVIA, RV wholesale shipments appear to be headed to their highest levels in 2021. Those projections show total RV shipments ranging between 523,000 units and 543,000 units for the coming year, representing a 23% increase over the 2020 year-end total of 430,412 units. It suggests a 5% gain over the record high of 504,600 units shipped in 2017.”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/unprecedented-demand-rv-sales-hit-record-february-pace-blowout-2021

    1. Fortunately most of these vehicles aren’t driven all that many miles. I know of a few people that actually go someplace with them on a very regular basis and put maybe ten thousand or more miles per year on them, but so far as I can see, most of them are driven only occasionally.

      If you look at the ads for sale, most of them have rather low miles for their model year, just like top of the line motorcycles. Nine out of ten Harley’s for sale have been ridden less than five thousand miles per year. You see plenty of motor homes for sale that have been driven only three or four thousand miles a year over the last ten years or so.

      The ones that do have high miles and are near new are typically bought to do the grand tour after retirement and sold shortly afterward, because most people don’t actually want to live in one or spend more than a few weeks a year using one.

      And the ones that ARE driven a lot are actually often HOME to the people that own them.

      1. I believe that in Australia solar panels on an RV roof is now standard.

    2. RVs have become an alternative housing. if you go to any city that has expensive rentals, you see RVs and vans lining on the streets. People go to big cities to make money, but either cannot afford the rent, or are simply choosing to save their money instead of blowing it all on rent.

      Another issue is that there is a major housing shortage as people are fleeing cities due to the riots\covid and cannot find housing. Or they are not sure where the want to relocate to. So an RV provides an alternative.

      Basically RVs are rarely driven. They find a spot to park and mostly remain there for long periods. Especially now that fuel prices are rising again.

  16. Article on the website: https: //www.angi.ru/news/2888408-%D0%98%D1%81%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2 % D0% B0% D0% BD% D0% B8% D0% B5% 3A% 20% D0% B2% D1% 8B% D1% 85% D0% BE% D0% B4% 20% D0% BC% D0% B5 % D1% 82% D0% B0% D0% BD% D0% B0% 20% D0% B2% 20% D0% 90% D1% 80% D0% BA% D1% 82% D0% B8% D0% BA% D0 % B5% 20% D0% BC% D0% BE% D0% B6% D0% B5% D1% 82% 20% D0% BF% D1% 80% D0% B8% D0% BD% D0% B5% D1% 81 % D1% 82% D0% B8% 20% D1% 83% D1% 89% D0% B5% D1% 80% D0% B1% 20% D0% A0% D0% BE% D1% 81% D1% 81% D0 % B8% D0% B8% 20% D0% BE% D1% 82% 20% 2480% 20% D0% BC% D0% BB% D1% 80% D0% B4% 20% D0% B2% 20% D0% B3 % D0% BE% D0% B4 /
    Here is:
    “Research: methane release in the Arctic can bring damage to Russia from $ 80 billion a year
    April 15 / 07:26

    Moscow. The involuntary release of methane from the Arctic shelf hydrates into the Earth’s atmosphere due to the melting of the underwater permafrost can nullify all human efforts to prevent global warming. The potential damage to Russia from uncontrolled gas emissions can range from $ 80 billion per year.

    The shallow waters of the Russian Arctic contain huge reserves of methane, the volume of which is hundreds of times greater than the gas dissolved in the atmosphere, the HSE scientists write in their study. However, due to the thawing of submarine permafrost, methane hydrates are already destabilized, which could lead to “unpredictable climatic consequences,” according to the HSE study prepared for the April conference. Taking into account that the area of ​​through thawing of shallow waters of the Arctic is estimated at 5-10%, the potential release of methane into the atmosphere may be from 37.5 to 75 gigatons. Such emissions can lead to an increase in the concentration of methane in the atmosphere by 5-25 times.

    “This can lead to additional warming of the climate, comparable to the effect of the expected doubling of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by the end of 2100,” – quoted the report of the Higher School of Economics TASS. At the same time, even an insignificant release of methane – 1-5% of the total potential – will lead to economic losses of $ 80 billion a year, 90% of which will fall on Russia, the HSE scientists warn. The damage could increase to $ 60 trillion a year by the end of the next century.

    The study notes that at the moment Russia does not have “scientific cooperation capable of conducting research on the global level of processes that can cause large-scale climate changes in a short period of time.” The HSE recommends that the Russian government establish a national consortium to study the climatic and environmental consequences of permafrost degradation. ”
    —–
    And yet, I believe that:
    1.The emission of CO2 by mankind certainly affects the climate.
    although it is not known to what extent, maybe by 0.1%. and maybe by 50%. The topic is impossible for an exact scientific answer. We can only talk about the order of influence.
    2. Possibly a greater or lesser effect on warming, the content of CO2 has the very nature itself, specifically volcanoes, the ocean. The topic requires scientific research.
    3. It is unlikely that mankind is able to significantly reduce its CO2 emissions. Well, there, China burns half of the world’s coal production and it is impossible to stop it.
    4.Even if humanity reduces CO2 emissions, by inertia the concentration will rise for some time in the atmosphere.
    5.The total production of hydrocarbons (coal, oil, gas) will soon begin to decline, this will lead to:
    a) a decrease in world, real GDP.
    b) reducing the level of CO2 emissions.
    c) the beginning of the process of reducing the population of the planet of people.
    de) to the emergence of conflicts, wars, migrations.
    PS Whatever mankind does in order to reduce CO2, all coal, oil and gas will be mined and burned, and CO2 emissions can be reduced by an insignificant percentage of the total emissions. So efforts are negligible …

    1. If one looks at your list of beliefs O A, and assumes they are roughly correct on this topic, then an additional conclusion can be drawn-

      The momentum of fossil fuel based civilization is so strong that intense climate change is inevitable [already ‘baked in the cake’ as we say here in the states]. Another couple decades of gas, oil, and coal burning results in a planet with a degree of flooding, fires, and food insecurity that shakes up humanity to the core.
      The number of have-nots goes up tremendously- ‘have-not’ in this context meaning lacking home and food security/stability.
      It sets the stage for big disruption in the form of revolutions, failed states, migrations, and yes- war.
      Brace for fascism.

      Postscript- in regard to your #1 and #2- by the time the scientific study on the topic of global warming has reached the latter chapters, we will have progressed so far into the event that the history of mankind will already be deep into episodes of massive climate disruption.

      1. Meanwhile,

        Atmospheric CO2 is rising at accelerating rates — currently climbing at close to 3 ppm each year, and getting faster. 419.51 ppm is the latest daily reading for atmospheric CO2 (for Apr. 12, 2021), an upwards trend from 415.81 ppm on Apr. 13, 2020.

      2. As for my assumptions about the development of events, I believe that until the production of hydrocarbons decreases by 50% from the current level (and this is approximately until 2040-2060), then:
        1. If the governments of the countries carry out a responsible policy, major wars will not happen. Countries experiencing hunger and water shortages will be helped. The birth rate will decrease, the population growth will stop, it is good.
        2. Most likely, the warming and maintenance will continue, at the end of the period, due to the reduction in the combustion of hydrocarbons, the cessation of these processes will begin.
        3. The level of the ocean will rise at the same speed, as before, this process is inert and will continue for several decades.
        Then the anthropogenic factor on the planet will begin to decrease.
        3. Problems will arise in overpopulated countries. As Winston Churchill said: Some peoples breed with the carelessness of cod …….

    2. Hi OA,

      PS Whatever mankind does in order to reduce CO2, all coal, oil and gas will be mined and burned, and CO2 emissions can be reduced by an insignificant percentage of the total emissions. So efforts are negligible …

      Not only do I agree, I will go as far as saying nothing will be done to mitigate it and the CO2 and methane trajectory will continue its sharp rise. The global economic system has to actually end for real change to occur, and that will never happen voluntarily….only by force.

      2. Iron Mike-
        “The global economic system has to actually end for real change to occur, and that will never happen voluntarily….only by force.”

        Or, by being forced. By that I mean that economic contraction happens involuntarily via loss of the ingredients of prosperity. Such as failed harvests, lack of enough water, or energy. Lack of cooperation among nations, such as trade wars that limits supply of such things as gas , minerals or electronic components.
        In that kind of scenario CO2 emissions might subside regardless of physical war or not.

        1. Hickory,

          Exactly my point. Perhaps i should have worded it better. I believe nature will eventually force our hand.

          In that kind of scenario CO2 emissions might subside regardless of physical war or not.

          Not sure about that, we might be past of no return regarding positive feedback also war, might exasperate CO2 emissions further. But yea you could also be right there.

        2. Everything will happen naturally – hydrocarbon deposits are depleted – world GDP, the amount of food, CO2 emissions, fertility will decrease. The task of governments is not to start wars before the transition of economies
          into new states.
          Of course, windmills and solar panels are good, but they will not be able to provide energy to maintain the level of consumption. Besides, everything ends: copper, nickel, tin, palladium and the like. Fusion energy is a dead end.
          Since if they solve the current problems – heat extraction and maintaining the reaction constantly,
          there will remain an insoluble problem – this dirty thing emits so much radioactivity that it is impossible to defend yourself.

  17. The world continues to learn about Covid.
    One thing that has become clear in the past 6 moths is the increase risk with obesity.

    A headline today- “Covid Is Much Deadlier in Brazil Than India and No One Knows Why”
    [article behind a paywall]
    Well, one strong possibility is the adult obesity rate.
    Brazil 22.1%
    India 3.9%

    Covid cases confirmed are roughly equal, but twice as many have died in Brazil.

    1. Any thoughts on why obesity would result in an increased risk of death from this virus?

      1. I have no substantiated idea about the mechanism linking risk of obesity and mortality of this particular virus.
        Many possibilities. That kind of physiology/pathology is not anywhere near my area of expertise.

        Everyone here likes to be an expert on things they really know close to nothing about, and they confuse knee jerk assumptions with truth.
        It is the biggest reason why I teeter on saying adios, yet occasionally there is good info on topics that interest me.
        I’d prefer to be learning more, rather than stamping out idiot or ill-informed fires that are so common.

        1. Yes, we should defer to experts. Here is a link to a paper written by my favorite expert on vitamin D, Prof. Michael F. Holick of the Boston University School of Medicine, published April 1, 2008 Vitamin D deficiency: a worldwide problem with health consequences
          Under the heading “CAUSES OF VITAMIN D DEFICIENCY” the authors basically list the populations at high risk of severe outcomes with COVID-19! On the topic of age and obesity they wrote:

          Aging is associated with decreased concentrations of 7-dehydrocholesterol, the precursor of vitamin D3 in the skin. A 70-y-old has ≈25% of the 7-dehydrocholesterol that a young adult does and thus has a 75% reduced capacity to make vitamin D3 in the skin (43). Because vitamin D is fat soluble, it is readily taken up by fat cells. Obesity is associated with vitamin D deficiency, and it is believed to be due to the sequestration of vitamin D by the large body fat pool (44). Medications including antiseizure medications and glucocorticoids and fat malabsorption are also common causes of deficiency (45; Figure 3).

        2. “Everyone here likes to be an expert on things they really know close to nothing about, and they confuse knee jerk assumptions with truth.
          It is the biggest reason why I teeter on saying adios…” ~ Hickory

          “A new commenting standard will be introduced to Energy Matters within days. Of the 200 comments on this thread, I’m guessing maybe 10 might make the new standard.

          If I have any readers who are interested in reading mindless opinion like this:

          ‘AC- you strike me as probably the most closed minded person to comment here.’ ~ Hickory

          Then I suggest you go find another blog to read.” ~ Euan Mearns, Energy Matters (via here)

  19. Islandboy,
    Obesity is associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease, insulin resistance and diabetes, inflammation, hypertension, gallbladder disease, sleep apnea, a variety of cancers and osteoarthritis (https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/adult/causes.html). Also, decreased activity, which is a risk factor for many disorders. So, obesity typically exacerbates the effects of infectious disease.

    1. In a strange twist, the paper I cited in my reply to Hickory above under the heading “NONSKELETAL CONSEQUENCES OF VITAMIN D DEFICIENCY” makes a link between almost all of the conditions you mention and vitamin D deficiency, suggesting that it is the deficiency as a result of obesity that is the primary cause! I find it all quite fascinating!

      I must say that I am disappointed by the apparent lack of curiosity about what is happening in the four countries I highlighted that have seen drastic declines in new cases and deaths. It aint’ vaccinations. That’s for sure.

    2. “Obesity is associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease, insulin resistance and diabetes, inflammation, hypertension, gallbladder disease, sleep apnea, a variety of cancers and osteoarthritis… for many disorders.” ~ Brian Od

      ‘Oh that Covid so dangerous! Must vaccinate everyone!’

  20. Every four years, at the start of a new administration, American intelligence agencies put out “Global Trends,” a weighty assessment of where the world seems headed over the next two decades. Cornucopians won’t like this.

    WHY SPY AGENCIES SAY THE FUTURE IS BLEAK

    “Experts in Washington who have read these reports said they do not recall a gloomier one. In past years, the future situations offered have tilted toward good ones; this year, the headings for how 2040 may look tell a different story: “Competitive Coexistence,” “Separate Silos,” “Tragedy and Mobilization” or “A World Adrift,” in which “the international system is directionless, chaotic, and volatile as international rules and institutions are largely ignored by major powers like China, regional players and non-state actors.””

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/15/opinion/global-trends-intelligence-report.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Editorials

    1. Meanwhile, closer to home.

      THE UNITED STATES IS AT RISK OF AN ARMED ANTI-POLICE INSURGENCY

      “Some of these men [Black males] may gradually be reaching the point where they believe they have nothing to lose. Some will join for revenge, others for the thrill of it and many for the dignity of the people they feel have been trampled on for too long. Although 93 percent of protest against police brutality is peaceful and involves no major harm to people and property, there is no guarantee that future protests about new police killings will remain peaceful.”

      https://phys.org/news/2021-04-states-armed-anti-police-insurgency.html

  21. Obesity is a risk factor not just for covid, but a whole host of diseases, as has been known for a long time now. Combined with increased mortality from such.

    So obesity = 1) increased risk of disease 2) increased mortality from disease.

    In America, this risk has been mitigated by a complex, expensive healthcare system that delivers all manner of drugs, surgeries, hospitalizations, and interventions to keep people alive who otherwise might have died. This is not a bad thing per say, but there is a cost involved, and it’s highly uncertain how long the system will last post peak oil.

    Of course, simplified, human fat is all about excess energy storage. In the remote past, we worked our butts off producing and storing food during good weather, and lost weight doing so, and then lived off stored food during winter, gaining some weight doing so. Under the right circumstances, human fat serves a role: as an alternative energy source to food.

    Interestingly, this means that if both you (assuming you are not obese) and an obese person were subject to starvation right now, the obese person would live longer. You would first burn through your small fat reserves, then move on to muscle, bone, and finally organs. Your body would do everything to keep your brain/heart/lungs going until the very end. Meanwhile, the obese person would burn through all of their excess fat, reaching normal to thin weight in the process.

    But, of course, modern obesity far exceeds whatever excess human energy stored as fat is useful, and therefore results in metabolic derangements and increased risk of disease. We are meant to store a little fat, not a lot. It’s much more efficient to be in good shape, with a balanced proportion of body composition. This phenotype is attractive to both sexes and physically competitive for a reason.

    If you have plans on surviving collapse, the single biggest thing you can do is to get in shape. Don’t count on the complex healthcare system to be there. It doesn’t matter if it was there for others and isn’t there for you. It’s the same with oil. The mid and late 20th century people lived on a bonanza of oil and the associated cheap food production and distribution. They got fat in the process. Many of them will die, some of them will live, some of them will lose weight either voluntarily or from starvation. This option will no longer be there in the decades to come. You want to be as physically robust as you can for as long as possible.

    1. Marionette Musings on The Reassuring Safety of Floor Arrows

      Hi Dolph, yes I’ve thought about complex, large-scale, high-energy-driven health care systems, which include big pharma and vaccine & related research as well as gender reassignment surgeries, all in the context of civilizational decline.

      I’ve also thought about simple relocalization and its natural limits on the spread of diseases we might otherwise have, like CV-19 and certain forms of government…

      Perhaps mandating vaccines and ‘health passports’ and related media fear porn could be part of a playbook to keep us all ‘tethered’ ay?

      But, staying fit and healthy? Why bother when we have civilization to hold us up and move us around like marionettes?

  22. Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible
    Even with vaccination efforts in full force, the theoretical threshold for vanquishing COVID-19 looks to be out of reach.

    ”…many scientists had thought that once people started being immunized en masse, herd immunity would permit society to return to normal. Most estimates had placed the threshold at 60–70% of the population gaining immunity, either through vaccinations or past exposure to the virus. But as the pandemic enters its second year, the thinking has begun to shift…

    It’s unclear whether vaccines prevent transmission

    The key to herd immunity is that, even if a person becomes infected, there are too few susceptible hosts around to maintain transmission — those who have been vaccinated or have already had the infection cannot contract and spread the virus. The COVID-19 vaccines developed by Moderna and Pfizer–BioNTech, for example, are extremely effective at preventing symptomatic disease, but it is still unclear whether they protect people from becoming infected, or from spreading the virus to others. That poses a problem for herd immunity…

    Vaccines might change human behaviour

    At current vaccination rates, Israel is closing in on the theoretical herd-immunity threshold, Aran says. The problem is that, as more people are vaccinated, they will increase their interactions, and that changes the herd-immunity equation, which relies in part on how many people are being exposed to the virus. “The vaccine is not bulletproof,” he says. Imagine that a vaccine offers 90% protection: ‘If before the vaccine you met at most one person, and now with vaccines you meet ten people, you’re back to square one.’

    We can’t expect COVID-19 to go away; we should plan accordingly

    “If we plan to transition to a green energy future, or if we simply plan to reduce usage of fossil fuels in future years, we probably need to scale back our plans for vaccines. In fact, any treatment that would be given in today’s emergency rooms is likely to become less and less possible as energy supplies deplete.

    […]

    There are very real reasons for people’s reluctance to accept the vaccine, when it is forced upon them offered to them. Because of this, it is difficult to get very close to 100% acceptance (or even 80% acceptance) of the vaccines.

    There seem to be any number of reasons why people are reluctant to get the new vaccine.

    Some are afraid of the pain involved with the shot. Others are afraid that they will be somewhat ill afterward, causing them to miss work. If employees are paid on an hourly basis and they barely have enough income as it is, this, by itself, could be a reason for avoiding the shot. Financial incentives might help with these issues.

    Others who are reluctant have followed the situation more closely. They realize that important steps in the normal vaccine approval process have been skipped, making it difficult to identify adverse effects that occur fairly infrequently. Even worse, it becomes impossible to discover problems that take many months or years to become evident. Over 100 doctors and scientists from 25 countries have signed a letter saying that offering vaccines that are as radically different from what has been used in the past, without more testing, is unethical.

    One concern is the likelihood of blood clots in the immediate period after the vaccine is received. Blood clots have also been observed with the AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines, and may be a concern with other vaccines, as well. There seem to be several related conditions, including sudden blindness, heart attacks, and sudden deaths of elderly people in nursing homes. These issues seem to be fairly rare, but people worry about them without adequate data on their frequency. If the issue is blood clots, it would seem as if simple adjustments such as taking low-dose aspirin for the time period of risk might be a partial solution.

    We know that in some cases, vaccines can inadvertently make later exposure to somewhat different versions of the virus worse, rather than stopping these infections. The virus that causes the illness SARS is very similar to the virus that causes COVID-19. When an attempt was made at a vaccine for SARS in 2012, a study on mice showed that exposure at a later date to a slightly different virus led to blood clots forming in the lungs. We already know that blood clots can be an issue for COVID-19 vaccines. Will COVID-19 vaccine recipients who are later exposed to mutations have an adverse reaction such as blood clots in the lungs? We don’t know. There have been no animal studies with respect to the vaccines for COVID-19.

    Another risk of COVID-19 vaccinations would seem to be auto-
    immune problems, especially in people who are already predisposed to such issues. Not much research has been done yet to clarify this issue.

    A related issue is allergic reactions to vaccines, including anaphylaxis. The possibility of allergic reactions is one reason vaccine recipients are asked to stay for 15 minutes after receiving their immunizations. Even with precautions, some deaths are occurring because severe allergic reactions can take up to 150 minutes to become apparent. It is impractical to keep vaccine recipients this long.

    The very long-term effects of both the COVID-19 illness and vaccines to prevent the COVID-19 illness are unknown. The Alzheimer’s Association recommends studies to see whether people who contract COVID-19 have a long-term increase in dementia-type illnesses. In theory, the vaccines could also lead to similar issues because of prion-like structures that are formed, both with the vaccine and the disease. Without long-term studies, we don’t know whether either of these concerns is valid. If dementia is an issue, will repeated vaccinations raise the long-term risk of dementia? We don’t know. If the disease itself and vaccines can both lead to dementia, is there an optimal strategy?

    Without a better understanding of what the risks are, it is hard to convince young people, especially, to take the vaccine. Their chances of a severe outcome from the disease are low to begin with. What is the point of taking a vaccine that may raise their risk of serious injury or death? The vaccine may be appropriate for people aged 80 and over, but is the risk really necessary for young people? Without better data, it is hard to know for certain.

    [2] Why a change away from dependence on vaccines is needed

    The Nature article referred to earlier says in its concluding paragraph, ‘It’s time for realistic expectations. . . we need to think of how we can live with the virus.’…”

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