AEO 2015, The EIA’s Crude Production Expectations

The EIA came out with its final update of Annual Energy Outlook 2015. It seems that the EIA is extremely optimistic concerning future US crude oil production.

AEO 2015

Here is a comparison with AEO 2014. The EIA still expects US crude production to peak in 2019 but at 10,472,000 bpd or 824,000 barrels per day higher than the expected last year. But the biggest difference is in the EIA’s change in decline expectations. They now expect the US to be producing 9,329,000 bpd in 2040 or 1,812 higher than they had 2040 production last year. This is the EIA’s reference, or most likely case.

AEO 2015 1

Production from tight formations leads the growth in U.S. crude oil production across all AEO2015 cases. The path of projected crude oil production varies significantly across the cases, with total U.S. crude oil production reaching high points of 10.6 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in the Reference case (in 2020), 13.0 million bbl/d in the High Oil Price case (in 2026), 16.6 million bbl/d in the High Oil and Gas Resource case (in 2039), and 10.0 million bbl/d in the Low Oil Price case (in 2020).

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North Dakota Bakken February Production

The NDIC Bakken Production Data and the NDIC North Dakota Production Data is in. Production in the Bakken was down 11,941 barrels per day and production in all North Dakota was down 14,104 bpd. The numbers for January were revised slightly. January Bakken was down 35,064 from December and all North Dakota was down 36,331 bpd from December.

Bakken BPD

As I have pointed out before, the EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report, for some unknown reason, estimates the last six or seven months, when the actual data is available. In the above chart they estimate from October on. This throws their current numbers way off.  The DPR data includes the Montana Bakken therefore their numbers will naturally be higher than the North Dakota data.

Bakken Eventual

Of course the EIA DPR will eventually bring their numbers into what North Dakota is reporting. The above is what the eventual Drilling Productivity Report will look like. (In Orange). Here is the amount the historical DPR is off.

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EIA’s April Drilling Productivity Report

The EIA just released its Drilling Productivity Report for April. In this report they have post what they expect the shale production data will look like through May 2015.

DPR Total Shale

 

The EIA is expecting a rounded top for shale production. They are expecting a big drop of total shale production in May to the tune of 56,673 barrels per day. In April they had total shale production down 2,098 bpd.

DPR by Basin

The EIA has Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara down but still has the Permian up by 10,647 bpd.

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The EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2014

Last year I posted a lot of data published in the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2014 published in May of last year, and the next one is due out Tuesday April 14. We are looking forward to that. But the EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2014, published last September, completely slipped by me. How did I miss that? But I looked at their predictions for world Crude plus Condensate production I found it very interesting.

In the below, though the data was posted in September, I have assumed the 2014 data was complete. Though it may be a little off it is close enough for, as the saying goes, “government work”‘. The data is in million barrels per day with the last data point 2040.

IEO World

The EIA is expecting World C+C to reach just over 99 million barrels per day in 2040. That will be up 21.25 million bpd from 2014.

IEO Table

This chart shows just which countries, they believe, will be responsible for that 21.25 million bpd increase. That is except for OPEC. They do not break out OPEC production by country.

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EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook + Texas

The EIA has released their latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. Below I compare the EIA’s ever changing outlook for future oil production. The STEO charts below are total liquids and are in million barrels per day.

STEO April

The EIA increased their December 2014 all liquids estimate but dramatically decreased their January 2015 estimate. The EIA now says US total liquids production declined by 480,000 barrels per day in January. 

STEO April NO

The EIA still believes non-OPEC total liquids production will take off but not until 2016. They have non-OPEC liquids reaching a new high in December but dropping almost one million barrels per day in January and not reaching that December high again until July of 2016.

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