Texas Petroleum Report – July 2016 and LTO scenarios

by Dennis Coyne

I have attempted to correct the reported Texas output using the methodology provided by Dean. Usually Dean provides the spreadsheets and I simply reproduce his charts with a few comments.  This month Dean may be on vacation or busy and I have not yet received his input. If I get his charts I will post them.

Dean uses the average of the correction factors from Jan 2014 to the present in order to reduce the month to month volatility of the correction factors.  I tried several averaging methods (all data, 12 month average, 6 month average, and 3 month average) where for the x month average the most recent x months of correction factors were averaged.

The only method with a significant difference was the 3 month average, so I present the “corrected” output using Dean’s usual method and an “Alt (3 month)” alternative. The RRC data and the EIA estimate are also included for reference.

TX/

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North Dakota Production and STEO

The Bakken and North Dakota production data is out.

Bakken & North Dakota

Bakken production was up 6,540 barrels per day while all North Dakota production was up 5,383 bpd. This was not posted as a correction to last months data though it looks that is exactly what it is. Last months data was twice as much as it should have been so now it is correct. Notice the data from the Drilling Productivity Report. It appears to have June data exactly correct, or very nearly so. Of course that is all the Bakken, including the Montana Bakken.

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OPEC Hits New High

The new OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with crude only production numbers for June 2016. OPEC added Gabon to its member countries this month. But I do not have historical production numbers for Gabon so this report does not include Gabon.

OPEC 13

OPEC crude only production reached 32,643,000 barrels per day, (not including Gabon). This was an increase of just over a quarter of million barrels per day. See exact data below.

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