EIA’s Electric Power Monthly – November 2017 Edition with data for September

A Guest Post by Islandboy

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The EIA released the latest edition of their Electric Power Monthly on December 1st, with data for September 2017. The table above shows the percentage contribution of the main fuel sources to two decimal places for the last two months and the year to date. Continue reading

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GoM Production: August and September Update

A Guest Post by George Kaplan

This briefly covers the production side as the hurricane outages are dominating the trends at the moment, but there’s a section at the end on discoveries and reserves that may give some pointers to future expectations.

The tables below show the production numbers for September, and their relation with previous months from BOEM and EIA, which are pretty close, but for some reason never the same and have actually diverged quite significantly at the moment. Both sets of data get revised, possibly up to a year later, usually those from EIA more than those from BOEM, and they end up with much closer, with EIA usually slightly lower

BOEM C&C Production (kbpd) m-o-m (%) y-o-y (%) Average Annual (kbpd)
July 1756      
August 1722 -2.0%    
September 1706 -1.0% 12.2% 1707
EIA C&C Production (kbpd) m-o-m (%) y-o-y (%) Average Annual (kbpd)
July 1732      
August 1665 -3.9%    
September 1650 -0.9% 9.9% 1677

For August Hurricane Harvey knocked out about 80 kbpd, Irma in September had a similar impact, but some of the increased drop might be natural decline. Nate in October took out about 250 to 300 averaged over the month. In addition there have been some other unplanned shut downs: Thunder Horse for a few days from an electrical failure following restart after Irma, Delta House following a subsea failure, and a pipeline rupture on Enchilada which took out about 75 kbpd in early November (and is still offline). The Delta House outage has not been reported very extensively but the Rigel field may still be offline, losing 25 kbpd. There is also continued decline in mature fields at about 12 kbpd, which may be accelerating as some of the newer fields are now in decline, and there are no new greenfield developments due until Stampede in first quarter of 2018 – though there may be some in-fill drilling still on some of the larger fields (e.g. Mars, Thunder Horse) and a couple of wells for Phoenix and Holstein (see below).

It remains to be seen but with these outages it looks like this year will not exceed 1700 kbpd on average; it will however still be a record a year, although well down on most predictions from last year, and the exit rate will be below last year’s. Recent adjustments to the EIA numbers now mean that September 2009 remains their peak month, with March this year the secondary peak. Without the outages August might just have edged a new overall peak.

BOEM Data

EIA GoM Data

C&C Production

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Non-OPEC Mid-size Oil Producers

A Guest Post by George Kaplan

This post covers recent C&C production and future prospects, with a bit on gas, for several mid-size non-OPEC producers. A few have been omitted (e.g. Canada, Kazakhstan, Egypt, UK) for no particular reasons other than lack of time or anything much to say, but may be covered in the future. Many of the countries here have held a bumpy plateau over the last twelve to eighteen months. For most this has come after a period of decline, and some are showing signs that decline might be starting again. Brazil has been on a plateau after a period of increase, and may be about to renew that growth. There is a general theme that oil discoveries and developments are drying up and most of the countries are looking more to gas, but with the current gas glut looking like it might end up worse than the 2014/15 oil glut that strategy may prove difficult in the near term.

Brazil

Brazil production peaked in March and has been on a plateau since (data below is through July, there should have been an August update but ANP aren’t very consistent in release dates). They have had several large FPSOs offline for maintenance (generally their FPSOs don’t have the best availability and they have had recent common mode failure issues with the high pressure gas risers, though I don’t know if this is a direct cause of the recent turnarounds). The Campos fields’ average water cut seems to be accelerating, which might also be contributing to a plateau rather than allowing a new peak.

All the new production growth is coming from the Santos basin. PetroBras production contributes about 82% to the total, but gradually falling as the new Santos production is partly foreign owned, e.g. by Shell – one reason they bought BG, and may fall faster now as PetroBras are trying to divest older fields. Their figures come out quicker than ANP and they report a new record in August, but falling slightly in September and October. They have bought the Libra extended test production on-line this month which will add production, and give some indication of future expectations.

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There are ten new, large FPSOs due through 2021, and a couple of others possible, which would altogether add about 1.5 mmbpd extra nameplate. However the overall decline rate now indicates they need about three major new projects per year just to maintain plateau, and if the Campos FPSOs’ performance is repeated then the earliest Santos facilities should start to decline this year or next, and can go quite quickly.

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