World Natural Gas Shock Model

This is a guest post by Dennis Coyne.

The views expressed in the post are those of Dennis Coyne and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ron Patterson.

The post that follows relies heavily on the work of Paul Pukite (aka Webhubbletelescope), Jean Laherrere, and Steve Mohr. Any mistakes are my responsibility.

For World Natural Gas URR Steve Mohr estimates 3 cases, with case 2 being his best estimate.

Case 1 URR= 14,000 TCF (trillion cubic feet)
Case 2 URR= 18,000 TCF
Case 3 URR= 27,000 TCF

Jean Laherrere’s most recent World natural gas URR estimate is close to Steve Mohr’s Case 1 at 13,000 TCF.

A Hubbert Linearization(HL) of World Conventional Natural Gas from 1999 to 2014 suggests a URR of 11,000 TCF, an HL from 1982-1998 points to a URR of 6000 TCF for conventional natural gas.

Note that “Conventional” natural gas subtracts US shale gas and US coal bed methane (CBM) from gross output minus reinjected gas for the World.

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Texas RRC Oil & Gas Production

The Texas RRC Data is out. All RRC data below is through May. The EIA data is through April.

Texas C+C

There appears to be an increase in Texas May crude oil production. You will notice that the EIA has departed from their usual practice of just estimating Texas C+C production up about 50,000 bpd for every month for the last six months or so. They have a new method or estimating Texas production which is explained in the first link below the charts.

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Oil Shipments by Rail Declining

Weekly oil shipments by rail can be found on the web at Weekly Carload Reports. And a summation of that data with charts can be found at Association of American Railroads  Freight Rail Traffic Data.

Rail Oil Carloads 3

Crude oil by rail basically started with the shale boom. Prior to that almost all oil was shipped by pipeline. Of course a lot of oil was trucked to the pipelines. The EIA says in the first seven months of 2014 8 percent of all us crude and refined products was shipped by rail. It looks like that percentage was increased somewhat in the second half of 2014.

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OPEC Production Still Increasing

The July OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with all OPEC Crude Only production data for June 2015.

OPEC 12

Crude Only production for the entire OPEC 12 as up 283,000 barrels per day in June to 31,378,000 bpd. But that was after May production had been revised up by 120,000 bpd. So counting May’s revisions and June’s numbers, OPEC production was up 403,000 bpd from what was originally reported last month.

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