World Exports versus Consumption, The ELM

The EIA has updated their International Energy Statistics with annual production numbers through 2014 and export data through 2012. Sometimes these stats can be confusing as they include several types of production and exports. But for production I use only “Crude plus Condensate” and for exports I used “Crude Oil Exports” which I assume includes condensate as well.

Also the export data is not exact, just close, because some importers are also exporters. For instance in 2001 the US exported 59,000 barrels per day. In 2012 the US exported 629,000 barrels per day. The exporting of condensate is allowed in the US and since the Shale boom condensate exports have increased quite dramatically because Light Tight Oil is rather top heavy with condensate.

To get exports versus consumption for exporting nations I simply subtracted their exports from their production. The difference was what they consumed. Similar data can be found on the Energy Export Databrowser.

I think the data clearly endorses Jeffrey Brown’s Export Land Model.

World E v C

In 2012 76,160,000 barrels of C+C were produced per day. Of that 76 million barrels 42,845,000 barrels were exported while the other 33,315,000 barrels was consumed by the producing nations. That is this is oil that was never exported.

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Texas RRC March Production Data

The Texas RRC is out with their latest Oil and Gas Production Data. Looks like oil production has leveled out with March production pretty much level with February. All RRC data is trough March 015.

Texas Crude Only

I always show the last 6 months or the RRC data in order to get a pretty good indication of which way data production is moving. From the data you can see that December was a very good month but January was just awful. February was a lot better and March was about the same as February.

Dean 1

The chart above was created by Dean Fantazzini, PhD, of the Moscow School of Economics. He has developed an algorithm which predicts what the data will reflect after the final data has come in. His data suggests that Texas crude has plateaued.

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Bakken by County and Legacy Decline

North Dakota publishes Historical Oil Production by County. However confidential wells are not included in these totals. But they also publish a State Summary Report which does include confidential well data for the previous two months. Working with both we can get a pretty good estimate of production from each county.

McKenzie

McKenzie had  a 12,533 bp/d gain in March but they are still 32,447 below their December high.

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Bakken Data + Short Term Energy Outlook

North Dakota has published their Bakken Production Data as well as North Dakota Production Data.

Bakken Production

North Dakota production was up 12,501 bpd above February but still stands 37,531 bpd below the December high and is still 789 bpd below the January production numbers.

Bakken BPD Per Well

Barrels per day per well is dropping, 12o for Bakken wells, 99 forN.D. Total and 23 for Conventional wells.

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OPEC April Data + The EIA’s DPR

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is just out with crude only production numbers for all OPEC countries for April 2015. 

OPEC 12

According to their secondary sources OPEC 12 production was up 18,000 bpd but that was after March production had been revised up 39,000 bpd.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi was up 27,000 bpd. They are still 15,000 bpd below their peak in August 2013.

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