US Oil Production Nears Previous Peak

The EIA’s Monthly Energy Review came out a couple of days ago. The data is in thousand barrels per day and the last data point is July 2015.

Consumption

US consumption of total liquids, or as the EIA calls it, petroleum products supplied, reached 20,000,000 barrels per day for the first time since February of 2008.

Something I never noticed before, consumption started to drop in January 2008, seven months before the price, along with world production, started to drop in August 2008. This had to be a price driven decline. Could the current June and July increase in consumption be price driven also?

Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 236 Comments

Jean Laherrere’s Bakken Update

Jean Laherrere sent me the below charts the other day. I had planned on posting them with more Bakken data. But my schedule has been busy so I am posting them alone.

Jean’s interpretation for ND is as follows
Bakken ultimate = 3 Gb
Non Bakken ultimate = 2.2 Gb
ND ultimate 5.2 Gb
Detail
Quite symmetrical like the EIA drilling productivity data, but in contrary to EIA/AEO2015 with a peak in 2020
  
It will be interesting to see the evolution in the next few months

Jean 1

The Hubbert Linearization puts the Bakken about half way to the end.

Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 936 Comments

Texas RRC June Production Data

The Texas RRC Oil & Gas Production Estimates are in. By now everyone should know that the Texas oil and gas data is incomplete and the drooping data lines will eventually look more like the EIA lines as the more and more data comes. The EIA data is only through May but all Texas Railroad Commission data is through June.

Texas C+C

It appears that Texas C+C was flat to slightly up in June.

Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 710 Comments

Bakken Production Data and STEO Predictions

The Bakken Production Statistics and the ND Production Statistics with June production numbers has been published.

Bakken & ND BPD

Bakken production was up by 10,887 barrels per day to 1,152,455 BPD while all North Dakota production was up by 8,565 barrels per day to 1,211,180 BPD. Bakken production is still 11,068 bpd below their December high while all North Dakota production is still 17,240 bpd below their December high.

Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | 554 Comments

US Shale Declining and OPEC Still Climbing

There is new data out today. The EIA published their International Petroleum Statistics yesterday. The EIA also published their Drilling Productivity Report which gave their expected shale oil and gas production through September. Then this morning OPEC published their Monthly Oil Marketing Report with OPEC crude only production numbers through July.

First the Drilling Productivity Report. Of course most of the Drilling Productivity Report is projection, not history. And that projection goes through September 2015.

Bakken

The EIA has the Bakken peaking in December and declining 107 thousand barrels per day since that point. A secondary peak was reached in April and declining steadily since then.

Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | 481 Comments