This is a guest post by David Archibald. The opinions expressed in this post do not necessarily represent those of Dennis Coyne or Ron Patterson
Mexico, China and Beyond
Ron Patterson’s post asking if China’s oil production has peaked reminded me of Mexico
which also produces mainly from supergiant fields. Mexico’s oil production peaked in 2004 and has averaged a 3.5 percent per annum decline rate since, with a peak yearly decline rate of 9 percent in 2008. China’s oil production has fallen 10% from its peak in 2015. Part of that is oil price-related as the Daqing oil field has an operating cost of $46 per barrel and could reverse as the oil price rises. The comparison of China and Mexico with a projection to 2023 is shown in the following figure:
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North Dakota has just come out with their oil production numbers for July 2016. Bakken production was up by 3,046 barrels per day while all North Dakota production was up 2,376 barrels per day.
The EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report missed it for July. They will make the correction next month.
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There is a new post by Ron Patterson as well.
I told Dennis that I was not going to post anymore but I just found a lot of time on my hands and decided to update the OPEC numbers from the MOMR that came out yesterday.
The new OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with crude only production numbers for August 2016. All charts are through August 2016.
OPEC crude only production reached 33,237,000 barrels per day in August. This includes Gabon.