US February Oil Production Marginally Higher

By Ovi

All of the Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production data, oil, for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM which provides updated information up to February 2025.

U.S. February oil production increased by 29 kb/d to 13,159 kb/d, 149 kb/d lower than December 2023’s 13,308 kb/d. The largest increases came from Texas and New Mexico. January’s production was revised down from last month’s 13,146 kb/d to 13,130 kb/d a decrease of 16 kb/d which is more than one half of February’s increase.

Production in March is expected to increase by 388 kb/d. For the last two months the STEO forecast has been really off the mark, too high by a significant amount. February was too high by 379 kb/d.

The dark blue graph, taken from the April 2025 STEO, is the U.S. oil production forecast from March 2025 to December 2026. Output for December 2026 is expected to reach 13,503 kb/d. From March 2025 to December 2026 U.S. production is expected to decline by 44 kb/d.

The light blue graph is the STEO’s projection for output to December 2026 for the Onshore L48. February Onshore L48 production rose by 24 kb/d to 10,919 kb/d. From March 2025 to December 2026, production is expected to decrease by 54 kb/d to 11,218 kb/d. December 2026 production was revised down from 11,440 kb/d by 222 kb/d from last month. Note how production starts declining in mid 2025 to December 2026.

In the previous US post, it was not clear how much of the January 305 kb/d drop was due to cold weather vs the lower completions associated with the low January Frac Spread count. A maximum drop of 90 kb/d was estimated as being related to the cold weather. The continuing low February production points to fewer completions along with possibly geology, i.e. fewer Tier 1 wells, dropping pressure and increasing GORs as being the main cause of the January and February production drop.

This is a comparison of the STEO’s March and April forecasts on an expanded scale since it would be difficult to see on the previous chart.

On April 2, the US President announced Liberation day. Under normal circumstances the April STEO would have published on April 8. However due to the impact that Liberation day tariffs would have on the World’s/US‘ economy, the STEO analysts decided to revise their original April report and delay its publication to April 10. While there was little change to March 2025, the December 2026 production forecast was lowered by 195 kb/d to 13,503 kb/d. The green and blue graphs are the same as those in the previous chart.

U.S. Oil Production Ranked by State

Listed above are the 12 US states with the largest oil production along with the Gulf of Mexico. Montana was added to this table a few months back since its production exceeded Louisiana’s production and we wish to keep tracking Louisiana.

These 12 states accounted for 85.0% of all U.S. oil production out of a total production of 13,159 kb/d in February 2025. On a MoM basis, February oil production in these 12 states rose by 68 kb/d. On a YoY basis, US production increased by 57 kb/d with the biggest contributors being Texas and New Mexico, offset by a North Dakota decline.

State Oil Production Charts

According to the EIA, Texas production increased by 41 kb/d in February to 5,618 kb/d and is 214 kb/d lower than October 2024. YoY production is up by 70 kb/d. Note that both December and January production from last month were revised down by 6 kb/d and 7 kb/d respectively.

Texas production has been dropping since October. The drop could be related to the drop in completions that started in October while the January drop could be a combination of cold weather and low completions. A few more months of data is required to see if Texas is nearing a production plateau and possible peak.

The red graph is a production projection using January and February Texas RRC data. Due to more production revisions than typical to earlier months in the February report, the projection is too optimistic by roughly 400 kb/d. However, note that both the projection and the EIA show production rolling over in October and dropping in January and increasing in February.

The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs reported for each month, shifted forward by 10 months. So the 276 rigs operating in July 2023 have been shifted forward to May 2024. From February 2024 to July 2024, the rig count dropped from 312 in time shifted February 2024 to 256 in July 2024. That drop of 56 rigs has had no impact on production up to August 2024 but November may be the first month when the rig drop impact on oil production is starting to show up along with fewer completions.

According to the EIA, New Mexico’s February production rose by 72 kb/d to 2,132 kb/d.

The blue graph is a production projection for Lea plus Eddy counties. These two counties account for close to 99% of New Mexico’s oil production. The difference between the January and February preliminary production data provided by the New Mexico Oil Conservation Division was used to make the projection. A 1% correction was added to the Lea plus Eddy production projection to account for their approximate fraction of New Mexico’s oil production. The methodology used for projecting New Mexico production is identical to that used for Texas.

The projection estimates February production was 2,121 kb/d an increase 85 kb/d over January, similar to the EIA’s report. The increase is related to February production increases in both Eddy and Lea counties and is discussed further down in the Permian section.

More oil production information for a few New Mexico and Texas counties is reviewed in the special Permian section further down.

February’s output dropped by 35 kb/d to 1,129 kb/d. Production is down by 158 kb/d from the post pandemic peak of 1,287 kb/d. The North Dakota Department of Mineral resources reported February production was 1,164 kb/d.

The unusually large difference between the EIA and the ND DMR may be due to an over estimation by the EIA associated with very cold February weather in ND. During February production dropped between 120,000 and 150,000 barrels of oil per day according to this Article.

According to this Article, North Dakota oil prices are near breakeven levels. The report has a lot of information of breakeven prices. “Breakeven costs in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico range between $38 and $42 a barrel.”

Alaskaʼs February output dropped by 3 kb/d to 438 kb/d while YoY production rose by 6 kb/d. The rise in production to close to 435 kb/d over the last four months is an indication that production for the next few months will be on its regular plateau after summer maintenance. EIA’s average weekly February production for Alaska is the same at 438 kb/d.

Alaska has recently brought new fields online to consistently have YoY and monthly production gains which have broken away from the earlier dropping production trend red lines. According to this Article, first oil production begins at Nuna project in Alaska in December.

Coloradoʼs February oil production decreased by 8 kb/d to 469 kb/d.

In August 2024, Colorado had 10 rigs operating and ended the year with 7. Colorado began 2025 with 7 rigs in January and February and dropped to 5 in March/April. Is the dropping rig count beginning to show up in dropping oil production?

It should be noted that Colorado drillers are facing increasingly stricter environmental rules according to this Article which could be reducing drilling locations.

Oklahoma’s output in February dropped by 18 kb/d to 382 kb/d. Production remains below the post pandemic July 2020 high of 491 kb/d and is down by 70 kb/d since May 2023. Output entered a slow declining phase in June 2023.

At the beginning of the year, there were 40 operational rigs. In February 6 rigs were added to bring the total to 46 and an additional 4 were added in March to raise the count to 50 in March and April. Will the increase in the rig count result in increasing oil production going forward?

California’s declining production trend continues. February production dropped by 1 kb/d to 264 kb/d.

Wyoming’s oil production has been rebounding since March 2023. However the rebound was impacted by the January 2024 storm. Production peaked in February 2024 and is now showing signs of being on a plateau. February’s production rose by 4 kb/d to 294 kb/d.

In August Wyoming had 8 operational rigs. The rig count has slowly risen to 14 from November to January and to 16 in April.

February’s production increased by 9 kb/d to 182 kb/d. Utah had 8 rigs operating from October through April.

Ohio has been added to the Louisiana chart because Ohio’s production has been slowly increasing since October 2021 and passed Louisiana in November 2023.

Louisiana’s output entered a slow decline phase in October 2022 and continued to fall in January but recovered a bit in February. February’s production rose by 6 kb/d to 75 kb/d. As of all of 2025, there are no oil rigs operating in Louisiana. In November 2024, one rig was operating. Anybody have any thoughts on this and can it be confirmed?

Ohio’s February oil production increased by 6 to 131 kb/d, a new record high. The most recent Baker Hughes rig report shows 1 horizontal oil rig operating in Ohio in December and January. In April, 8 rigs were operational. Is Ohio’s crude primarily condensate recovered from NG wells?

February’s oil production dropped by 5 kb/d to 73 kb/d. Montana had one oil rig operating from December through April.

GOM production dropped by 39 kb/d in February to 1,755 kb/d vs the STEO forecast that it was expected to rise to 1,865 kb/d in February, a 110 kb/d over estimation. March production is projected to rise to 1,845 kb/d.

The April 2025 STEO projection for the GOM output has been added to this chart. It projects production in December 2026 will be 25 kb/d lower than March 2025 at 1,820 kb/d.

According to the OPEC MOMR, in the coming months, output is expected to be supported by project ramp-ups and several new projects, such as the deepwater Whale platform that started production in January.  

A Different Perspective on US Oil Production

Combined oil output for the Big Two states Texas and New Mexico.

February’s production in the Big Two states increased by a combined 113 kb/d to 7,750 kb/d and is 194 kb/d lower than October 2024. Clearly these two states were the drivers of US oil production growth up to October 2024. Has the trend flipped?

Oil Production by The Rest

February’s oil production by The Rest dropped by 89 kb/d to 3,169 kb/d and is 232 kb/d lower than November 2023.

Permian Basin Report for Main Counties and Districts

This special monthly Permian section was added to the US report because of a range of views on whether Permian production will continue to grow or will peak over the next year or two. The issue was brought into focus recently by two Goehring and Rozencwajg Report and Report2 which indicated that a few of the biggest Permian oil producing counties were close to peaking or past peak. Also comments by posters on this site have similar beliefs from hands on experience.

This section will focus on the four largest oil producing counties in the Permian, Lea, Eddy, Midland and Martin. It will track the oil and natural gas production and the associated Gas Oil Ratio (GOR) on a monthly basis. The data is taken from the state’s government agencies for Texas and New Mexico. Typically the data for the latest two or three months is not complete and is revised upward as companies submit their updated information. Note the natural gas production shown in the charts that is used to calculate the GOR is the gas coming from both the gas and oil wells.

Of particular interest will be the charts which plot oil production vs GOR for a county to see if a particular characteristic develops that indicates the field is close to entering or in the bubble point phase. While the GOR metric is best suited for characterizing individual wells, counties with closely spaced horizontal wells may display a behaviour similar to individual wells due to pressure cross talking . For further information on the bubble point and GOR, there are a few good thoughts on the intricacies of the GOR in an earlier POB comment and here. Also check this EIA topic on GOR.

New Mexico Permian

The total rig count in Lea and Eddy counties in the week ending May 2 was 90 and is down 10 from the July 2024 count of 100. The total rig count has held steady at 90 for the last four weeks.

Lea and Eddy county rigs have both stabilized around 45 over the last few months but are hinting at a slow decline.

Lea County’s oil production appears to have entered a plateau phase in May 2024 at 1,240 kb/d. February’s projected output saw an increase of 41 kb/d to 1,216 kb/d after the January drop to 1,175 kb/d. Preliminary February data from New Mexico’s Oil Conservation Division (OCD) indicates Lea County’s oil production increased by 30 kb/d to 1,170 kb/d.

Production has been essentially flat to slightly down since May 2024 as the rig count fell. February’s large production increase could be related to a production rebound associated with January’s cold weather.

The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs operating during a given month as taken from the weekly rig chart. The rig graph has been shifted forward by 8 months. So the 64 Rigs/wk operating in August 2023 have been time shifted forward to April 2024 to show the possible correlation and time delay between rig count, completion and oil production.

Comparing the flattening oil production since May with the dropping time shifted rig count, indicates/implies the newer wells drilled since June had higher IPs to offset the decline associated with the fewer wells drilled by the declining rig count. The rising rig count starting in November 2024 may be able to slow the declining/flattening production in Lea County but the writing on the wall is saying that Lea County is close to peak production.

Note that rig counts are being used to project production as opposed to completions because very few extra DUCs are being completed at this time.

After much zigging and zagging, oil production in Lea county stabilized just below 1,100 kb/d in early 2023. Once production reached a new high in January 2023, production appeared to be on a plateau while the GOR started to increase rapidly to the right and entered the bubble point phase in July 2023.

Since July 2023 the Lea County production has continued to increase as the GOR remained within a second semi-bounded region. This may indicate the recent additional production is coming from a new field/area since the GOR’s behaviour since August 2023 to March 2024 time frame appears once again to be in a semi bounded GOR phase accompanied with rising production.

The GOR moved out of the second semi-bounded GOR region in April and hit a new high in May. Since July the GOR has bounced around 3.4. February saw a production rise as the GOR increased to a new high of 3.48.

This zigging and zagging GOR pattern within a semi-bounded GOR while oil production increases to some stable level and then moves out to a higher GOR to the right has shown up in a number of counties. See a few additional cases below.

February’s projected oil production increased by 44 kb/d to 884 kb/d. Similar to Lea County, the production increase could be due to a rebound from January’s bad weather.

Eddy County’s oil production first peaked in February 2024 at 805 kb/d. After dropping for three months, the number of rigs and associated wells increased and so did oil production. From May to November, production rose from 755 kb/d to 906 kb/d, an increase of 151 kb/d, while essentially paralleling the increasing rig count. Over that same time shifted rig period, 14 to 15 rigs were added to Eddy County as production rose. Was a new Tier 1 region/area discovered to attract such a large increase in the rig count?

In November 2024 the projected oil production increased by 8 kb/d to a new high of 906 kb/d. This smaller increase relative to previous months also appears to reflect the production impact associated with the slowing increase in the rig count.

The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs operating during a given month as taken from the above weekly drilling chart. The rig graph has been shifted forward by 7 months to roughly coincide with the increase in the production graph starting in November 2023.

Clearly the production rise up to November 2024 is closely associated with the rise in the rig count and associated well completions delayed by roughly seven months. The smaller November increase is the second clue that the production rise associated with increasing rigs is about to end. The dropping rig count starting in January 2025 implies that production in Eddy county may be heading into a short term plateau phase between 850 kb/d and 900 kb/d.

The Eddy county GOR pattern is similar to Lea county except that Eddy broke out from the semi bounded range earlier and for a longer time and then added a second semi bounded GOR phase. For February New Mexico’s Oil Conservation Division (OCD) reported oil production increased by 43 kb/d to 883 kb/d and stayed within the second semi-bounded region.

Note the big increase in the GOR from November to January. The February drop in GOR along with rising oil production implies the new wells are being drilled in a region/area with a much lower GOR.  

Texas Permian

The Midland county rig count has been rising since July 2024 and was up 10 to 28 at the end of March 2025. However it dropped by 7 rigs to 21 by the end of April has rebounded by 2 to 23 in the first week of May.

The opposite is true for Martin county. In the week ending May 2, 25 rigs were operational, down 19 from 45 in July 2023. Since the end of October Martin’s rig count has been fairly steady around 26.

Oil Production in Texas Counties

February’s projected production added 6 kb/d to 658 kb/d. Both the December and January projected production reported in the previous post have been revised lower as expected because large updates to earlier months did not occur. December dropped by 15 kb/d to 669 kb/d and January dropped by 10 kb/d to 652 kb/d.

The orange and green graphs show the oil production for Midland County as reported by the Texas RRC for January and February. The red graph uses the January and February data to project production as it would look after being updated over many months.

Even though the rig count is dropping, I think the increase in the projected production after May 2024 is real based on the increasing preliminary production shown from June to October in the latest February RRC report. Flat October and November production and December dropping is signalling an imminent production peak/plateau.

The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs operating during a given month as taken from the weekly drilling chart. The rig graph has been shifted forward by seven months. So the average 34.5 Rigs/wk operating in July 2023 have been moved forward to February 2024 to show the possible correlation and time delay between rig count, completions and oil production. If the seven month shift in the rig count is approximately correct in that oil production can be tied to the rig count, oil production in Midland county should increase starting in April for a month or two before resuming its decline. 

For February the GOR ratio increased to 4.21 from January’s 4.13 while reported preliminary oil production dropped.

With Midland county into the bubble point phase, oil production and the GOR have stayed within a narrow range outside of the initial Semi-Bounded GOR region since March. February GOR increased over January while production came in at a new low since the July 2023 production high.

The oil production and GOR shown in this chart are based on the RRC’s February production report. Note that while the last few months are subject to revisions, the July 2023 to May 2024 production data has been steady for a number of months.

Martin county’s projected February oil production increased by 55 kb/d to 765 kb/d. The February projection is an over correction due to production being too low in January due to bad weather. The trend from May 2024 to January 2025 is a more realistic production projection for Martin county, it’s on a plateau. For example, January production reported in the previous post has been revised down by 42 kb/d from 752 kb/d to 710 kb/d.

The orange and green graphs show the production for Martin County as reported by the Texas RRC for January and February. The blue chart shifts the rig count ahead by 6 months.

The red graph is a projection for oil production as it would look after being updated over many months. This projection is based on a methodology that uses preliminary January and February production data. The green graph shows oil production reported by the Texas RRC for February and it is higher than January’s. Note how production has dropped from September 2024 to January 2025, green graph.

My best guess for Martin County production is that it is on a plateau closer to 725 kb/d and on the verge of starting to decline as indicated by the production from August to January.

Martin county’s oil production after November 2022 increased and at the same time drifted to slightly higher GORs within the semi bounded range. However the June 2024 GOR saw its first move out of the semi bounded region. The preliminary Texas RRC’s February production for Martin county shows a decrease in the GOR accompanied by an increase in oil production.

Martin county has the lowest semi-bounded GOR boundary of the four counties at a GOR of close to 2.60. In February the GOR dropped from 2.87 in December to 2.80. Nevertheless, it is clearly out of the semi-bounded region. Martin County has now entered the bubble point phase that should result in oil production entering a plateau phase.

This chart shows the total oil production from the four largest Permian counties. Assuming that current February Permian production is close to 6,400 kb/d, these four counties account for close to 54% of the total. The projection for February production is overly optimistic primarily because Martin’s January production was too low which resulted in an optimistic projection for February. Also the February rise is related to smaller production increases in the other three counties. A more realistic projection would be closer to a plateau between 3,400 kb/d and 3,500 kb/d, possibly showing up next month.

The January and February initial production data is shown in the orange and green graphs respectively. The red graph uses the January and February data to project an estimate for the final February production. The large February rise is related to the production rise in all four counties. 

The projection indicates that February production from these four counties increased by 146 kb/d to 3,523 kb/d. The combined preliminary February production data is higher than January’s by 146 kb/d to 3,282 kb/d.

This Article reports that: “When Exxon Mobil and Chevron report first-quarter results this week, investors will be focused on how falling oil prices have increased the risk to dividends and share repurchases for the rest of 2025.”

It further notes that: “Chevron may reduce buybacks if weak oil prices persist, said analysts from four firms. The second-largest U.S. oil company previously guided annual share repurchases between $10 billion and $20 billion.

The company is in the process of cutting up to $3 billion in costs and laying off up to 8,000 employees.”

Rystad has Lowered its production outlook for the US onshore L48 states.

“Expansion of oil production in the lower 48 US states is expected to be less than 150,000 barrels a day, as measured from the end of last year to the end of 2025, Rystad said Monday in a report. That’s down from a previous growth estimate of about 300,000 barrels a day. The consultant expects oil output in the region next year to decline based on current prices.

“We expect activity declines to be most concentrated in the Permian, as other basins already are in maintenance mode,” said Amber McCullagh, senior vice president at Rystad, referring the Permian Basin, the world’s biggest shale patch, which is located in West Texas and New Mexico.”

Findings

– The February production data was in general good and most of the projections are reasonable with only a few Texas counties being optimistic. In general all of the four largest county production charts are in a plateau phase. Taking into consideration that the price of WTI is stuck close to $60/b, the rig count is holding steady around 445, the continuing lower frac spread count and the plateauing of the four biggest counties, taken all together all point to peak production in the onshore lower 48 within the next six months.

– Lea county entered a plateau phase in May 2024. While oil production is not following the rig count graph directly, the dropping rig count is resulting in Lea production currently being on a plateau. The February projected production rise could be a rebound from the low January production associated with the January cold weather.

– Eddy County’s oil production initially peaked in February 2024. It started a new increasing phase in June as it followed the uptrend in the rig count and exceeded its previous February peak. Production peaked in November 2024 and is now in decline and possibly heading into a lower production plateau phase.

– Midland county peaked in July 2023 and has roughly followed the declining rig count graph up to May 2024. It appears to have started a new increasing phase in June 2024 and peaked in November 2024. November could be the beginning of its plateau phase.

– Martin County may have peaked in August 2024 and may have entered a plateau phase. The February projected production rise is due to the lower reported production for January which results in a too optimistic production for February. Regardless Martin county has been on a plateau closer to 725 kb/d for the last six months.

– All four of the largest Permian oil producing counties are now in their plateau phase with all four hinting that the decline phase is close at hand. Need a few more months of data to clarify the future growth/decline trend of these four counties.

Texas District 8

The large number of small revisions to the previous months in the February report has made the February production increase of 125 kb/d in District 8 optimistic. The major contributors being Martin and Loving. This optimistic increase will hopefully be corrected in the next report. Regardless the portion of the increase up to July 2024 is real and the January drop is more than likely real.

Texas District 8 contains 20 counties. Of the 20, eight are reviewed in this post, Midland, Martin, Loving, Reeves, Howard, Upton, Reagan and Glasscock. From January 2024 to January 2025, production in District 8 increased by 340 kb/d. Of the 340 kb/d increase, those eight counties accounted for 288 kb/d or 84.7% of the increase.

While the revisions in the production chart affect the projection, it does not affect the GOR.

Plotting an oil production vs GOR graph for a district may be a bit of a stretch. Regardless here it is and it seems to indicate many District 8 counties may well be into the bubble point phase. The GOR continued to increase in February to 4.41. This is another indicator that implies District 8 may be on a production plateau even though the projected production chart says otherwise.

Oil Production and GOR Charts for a number of Larger Texas Oil Producing Counties

Below are the next six top oil producing counties in Texas.

February’s projected oil production for Reeves county rose largely because the under production in January affects the February projection methodology. Production up to January is a better indicator of what to expect for oil production going forward. The GOR chart indicates that Reeves County entered the bubble point phase in December and production is entering a plateau phase before beginning to fall.

For Comparison: Loving’s January oil production chart posted in the April report.

As can be seen by comparing the January and February production projection charts, Loving’s county production is very volatile. July 2024 to September 2024 are the last reasonable production points. Revisions to past months has made the post September projections questionable. However it is important to note that there was jump in the March rig count in the time shifted rig count graph.

We will have to wait for the March data to make a more realistic assessment of oil production in Loving county. The GOR has moved into the bubble point which is an indication that production growth should be slowing.

Upton county production has followed the rig count graph since January 2024 and may have peaked in December. February saw a rebound in both the preliminary production and the production projection. The GOR may be on the verge of moving out to the semi-bounded region.

The rig graph in the oil production chart has been shifted forward by six months.

Howard county peaked in July 2023 at 428 kb/d. Note the rapid movement of the GOR to higher ratios once it broke out of the Semi-Bounded GOR range. While the GOR has risen to new highs, preliminary production has kept on falling. However the projected production rise shown after July 2024 may be an indication that production has moved into new and lower plateau zone.

Reagan county oil wells have a very high GOR. The production chart indicate that oil production has been falling since September along with an increasing GOR.

Starting in March 2024, output increased by 72 kb/d to a peak of 226 kb/d in September 2024. At the same time the GOR fell to a new low of 5.98. These new wells must have had a very low GOR to drop the average GOR from 7.48 to 5.98. After the September production peak, the GOR began to rapidly increase to the current level as production fell.

Glasscock production has been falling since April 2024 and does not show any sign of slowing. The GOR moved out of a very wide Semi-Bounded region to a new high of 5.84 in February. Note the rapid increase in the GOR starting from 3.91 in April 2024.

Frac Spread Count

This table summarizes the Frac Spread count for these Permian Counties for the week ending April 11. These counties are the main ones reviewed above. As I have noted before this data base is a bit difficult to work with and is not fully up to date. For instance there is no information for Martin County for the week ending April 11. The latest data for Martin county is for the week ending March 27. During that week, there were 19 Frac Spreads in operation, assuming the data base was up to date.

Since the company collecting this data is private, the information may be supplied on a voluntary basis by the Frac Spread companies.

As can be seen the greatest activity is occurring in the top 3 counties. For Eddy, Lea and Midland counties, the Frac Spread count to Rig count ratio is 0.51, 0.44 and 0.52 respectively. Interesting that the ratios are so close.

Drilling Productivity Report

The Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the principal tight oil regions. The new DPR report in the STEO provides production up to March 2025. The report also projects output to December 2026 for a number of basins. The DUC charts and Drilled Wells charts are also updated to March 2025.

The oil production for the 5 DPR regions tracked by the EIA’s STEO is shown above up to March 2025. Also the March 2025 STEO projects production out to December 2026, red markers.  Note DPR production includes both LTO oil and oil from conventional wells. DPR oil production for the Anadarko and Niobrara regions is no longer available.

The March oil output in the five DPR regions increased by 187 kb/d to 9,334 kb/d. Production is expected to drop by 75 kb/d in April to 9,059 kb/d. Note the sharp production rise of 269 kb/d from April 2025 to August 2025. After that, production growth becomes production decline. Considering the flat rig count and low completion rate, it is not clear why production should rise over this period.

The EIA’s April STEO/DPR report shows Permian March output rose by 175 kb/d to 6,570 kb/d. From April 2025 to December 2026 output is expected to rise by 278 kb/d to 6,785 kb/d. Also note how production rises by 243 kb/d from April to October 2025 followed by production being essentially flat.

Production from new wells and legacy decline, right scale, have been added to this chart to show the difference between new production and legacy decline. Note how the decline rate is growing faster than production rate.

Output in the Eagle Ford basin had been increasing since January 2024 and appears to have peaked in August 2024 and then dropped every month until January 2025. March production increased by 3 kb/d to 1,131 kb/d. April 2025 production is forecast to increase by 4 kb/d to 1,135 kb/d.

Production over the next two years is expected to peak in the later half of 2026 at close to 1,180 kb/d. Output in December 2026 expected to be 1,169 kb/d.

The DPR/STEO reported that Bakken output in March rose by 8 kb/d to 1,228 kb/d. The STEO/DPR projection, red markers, shows output to be essentially in decline after July 2025, dropping to 1,103 kb/d in December 2026.

This chart plots the combined production from the three main LTO regions. For March output rose by 186 kb/d to 8,929 kb/d. Production for December 2026 is forecast to be 9,056 kb/d, a downward revision of 145 kb/d. Production declines after August 2025.

DUCs and Drilled Wells

The number of DUCs available for completion in the Permian and the three major DPR regions has fallen every month since July 2020 to December 2024. March DUCs rose by 6 to 1,555. In the Permian, the DUC count increased by 20 to 950.

In the three primary regions, 630 wells were completed and 635 were drilled.

In the Permian, the monthly completion and drilling rates have been both stabilizing in the 440 to 460 range over the last 6 months.

In March 2024, 443 wells were completed while 463 new wells were drilled. This is the sixth month in a row in which the number of wells drilled exceeded the number of completed wells.