U.S. December Oil Production at All time High

By Ovi

All of the Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production data, oil, for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM which provides updated information up to December 2024.

U.S. December oil production increased by 95 kb/d to 13,491 kb/d, a new all time high. It is 183 kb/d higher than December 2024. The largest increase came from the GOM, 203 kb/d. November production was revised up from last month’s 13,314 kb/d to 13,396 kb/d an increase of 82 kb/d. Production in January is expected to drop by 177 kb/d, possibly due to the drop in completions during December and January along with a drop from the GOM.

The dark blue graph, taken from the February 2025 STEO, is the forecast for U.S. oil production from January 2025 to December 2026. Output for December 2026 is expected to reach 13,657 kb/d. From December 2024 to December 2026 production is expected to grow by 166 kb/d.

The light blue graph is the STEO’s projection for output to December 2026 for the Onshore L48. December Onshore L48 production increased by 53 kb/d to 11,272 kb/d, a new high. From December 2024 to December 2026, production is expected to increase by 94 kb/d to 11,366 kb/d. December 2026 production was revised down from 11,414 kb/d by 48 kb/d from last month. Note how production is essentially flat starting in mid 2025 to mid 2026.

U.S. Oil Production Ranked by State

Listed above are the 12 US states with the largest oil production along with the Gulf of Mexico. Montana has been added to this table this month since its production exceeded Louisiana’s production and we wish to keep tracking Louisiana.

These 12 states accounted for 84.5% of all U.S. oil production out of a total production of 13,491 kb/d in December 2024. On a MoM basis, December oil production in these 12 states dropped by 108 kb/d. On a YoY basis, US production increased by 183 kb/d with the biggest contributor being New Mexico.

State Oil Production Charts

Texas production decreased by 78 kb/d in December to 5,723 kb/d. YoY production is up by 92 kb/d. Note that November production from last month was revised up by 40 kb/d from 5,761 kb/d to 5,801 kb/d.

The red graph is a production projection using November and December Texas RRC data. Due to higher than typical revisions to earlier months in the December report, the projection is too optimistic. However, note that both the projection and the EIA show production rolling over and dropping in December.

The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs reported for each month, shifted forward by 10 months. So the 276 rigs operating in July 2023 have been shifted forward to May 2024. From February 2024 to July 2024, the rig count dropped from 312 in time shifted February 2024 to 256 in July 2024. That drop of 56 rigs has had no impact on production up to August 2024 but December may be the first month when the rig drop impact on oil production is starting to show up.

According to the EIA, New Mexico’s December production rose by 24 kb/d to 2,113 kb/d.

The blue graph is a production projection for Lea plus Eddy counties. These two counties account for close to 99% of New Mexico’s oil production. The difference between the November and December preliminary production data provided by the New Mexico Oil Conservation Division was used to make the projection. A 1% correction was added to the Lea plus Eddy production projection to account for their approximate fraction of New Mexico’s oil production.

The projection estimates December production increased by 35 kb/d to 2,171 kb/d. The increase is related to a December production increase in Eddy and Lea counties and is discussed further down in the Permian section.

More oil production information for a few New Mexico and Texas counties is reviewed in the special Permian section further down.

December’s output dropped by 34 kb/d to 1,171 kb/d. Production is down by 116 kb/d from the post pandemic peak of 1,287 kb/d. The North Dakota Department of Mineral resources reported December production was 1,191 kb/d.

According to this Article the Director of the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources said “Wells waiting on completion went down slightly from November to December. December’s number was 288,” Anderson said.

He also said the number of completed wells is down from 89 in December to 78 (preliminary number) in January. He said that lower number is attributed to winter activities and potential impacts from mergers.

Alaskaʼs December output dropped by 5 kb/d to 434 kb/d while YoY production rose by 1 kb/d. The drop in production is an indication that production for the next few months will be on its regular plateau after summer maintenance. EIA’s average weekly December production from for Alaska is almost the same at 436 kb/d.

Alaska must have brought new fields online to consistently have YoY and monthly production gains which have broken away from the earlier dropping production trend red lines. According to this Article, First oil production begins at Nuna project in Alaska in December.

Nuna is expected to add 20,000 barrels of oil to the state’s overall oil production, at its peak production level.

Coloradoʼs December oil production decreased by 11 kb/d to 512 kb/d. Colorado began the year with 12 rigs. In December it had 7 in operation and dropped to 6 in January and February. Is the dropping rig count beginning to show up in dropping oil production?

Oklahoma’s output in December rose by 7 kb/d to 418 kb/d. Production remains below the post pandemic July 2020 high of 491 kb/d and is down by 64 kb/d since May 2023. Output entered a slow declining phase in June 2023 but has now reversed and entered an increasing trend.

At the end of October 2024 there were 40 operational rigs and they have held steady at 41 ±1 from October to December. In February 4 rigs were added to bring the total to 46 in operation. Will the increase in the rig count result in increasing oil production going forward?

California’s declining production trend continues. December production dropped by 4 kb/d to 275 kb/d.

Wyoming’s oil production has been rebounding since March 2023. However the rebound was impacted by the January 2024 storm. Production peaked in February 2024 and was showing signs of being on a plateau.

However December’s production rose by 9 kb/d to 304 kb/d, a new high.

In August Wyoming had 8 operational rigs. The rig count has slowly risen to 14 from November to January and to 15 in February.

December’s production decreased by 12 kb/d to 171 kb/d. Utah had 8 rigs operating from October through February.

Did a search for December Utah oil production and the AI summary came up with this: “In January 2025, Utah’s crude oil production was 5.506 million barrels, which was down from 5.857 million barrels the previous month.  Tried to find the source but was unsuccessful.

Ohio has been added to the Louisiana chart because Ohio’s production has been slowly increasing since October 2021 and passed Louisiana in November 2023.

Louisiana’s output entered a slow decline phase in October 2022 and has continued to fall in December. December’s production dropped by 1 kb/d to 79 kb/d. As of January and February, there are no oil rigs operating in Louisiana. In November 2024, one rig was operating. Anybody have any thoughts on this and can it be confirmed?

Ohio’s December oil production rose by 2 kb/d to 122 kb/d, a new record high. The most recent Baker Hughes rig report shows one horizontal oil rigs operating in Ohio in December and January and two in February.

December’s oil production dropped by 5 kb/d to 80 kb/d. Montana had one oil rig operating from December through February.

GOM production rose by 203 kb/d in December to 1,858 kb/d but is expected to drop in January to 1,750 kb/d. December’s recovery is simply continuing recovery from maintenance associated with the September Category 4 hurricane Helene.

The January 2025 STEO projection for the GOM output has been added to this chart. It projects production in December 2026 will be 25 kb/d lower than December 2024 at 1,833 kb/d.

According to the OPEC MOMR, GOM output is expected to be supported by new projects in the coming months, such as the deepwater Whale platform that started production in January.  

A Different Perspective on US Oil Production

The combined oil output for the Big Two states Texas and New Mexico.

December’s production in the Big Two states decreased by a combined 54 kb/d to 7,836 kb/d and is 252 kb/d higher than December 2024. Clearly these two states are the drivers of US oil production growth on a YOY basis.

Oil production by The Rest

December’s oil production by The Rest dropped by 51 kb/d to 3,363 kb/d and is 82 kb/d lower than November 2023.

Frac Spreads

Frac Spread data is available here. Unfortunately it is difficult to use and is not fully up to date. However with a bit of work and persistence data can be extracted. The only reason this is being mentioned is that while I think the results below look fine, there could be some errors because many steps have to be taken to make the file workable and errors are possible. Nevertheless the results seem reasonable.

The attached table shows the distribution of Frac spreads amongst the three big States for the week ending February 7. The largest number of frac spreads are in Eddy and Lea counties. In Texas, the greatest number are in Martin, Reeves, Loving and Reagan. Note the difference in the spread count between Martin and Midland even though the rig counts are similar, shown further down. The table indicates there were eleven spreads operating in Reagan county in the week ending February 7. Reagan county oil production has not been tracked recently but will be going forward.

Permian Basin Report for Main Counties and Districts

This special monthly Permian section was recently added to the US report because of a range of views on whether Permian production will continue to grow or will peak over the next year or two. The issue was brought into focus recently by two Goehring and Rozencwajg Report and Report2 which indicated that a few of the biggest Permian oil producing counties were close to peaking or past peak. Also comments by posters on this site have similar beliefs from hands on experience.

This section will focus on the four largest oil producing counties in the Permian, Lea, Eddy, Midland and Martin. It will track the oil and natural gas production and the associated Gas Oil Ratio (GOR) on a monthly basis. The data is taken from the state’s government agencies for Texas and New Mexico. Typically the data for the latest two or three months is not complete and is revised upward as companies submit their updated information. Note the natural gas production shown in the charts that is used to calculate the GOR is the gas coming from both the gas and oil wells.

Of particular interest will be the charts which plot oil production vs GOR for a county to see if a particular characteristic develops that indicates the field is close to entering or in the bubble point phase. While the GOR metric is best suited for characterizing individual wells, counties with closely spaced horizontal wells may display a behaviour similar to individual wells due to pressure cross talking . For further information on the bubble point and GOR, there are a few good thoughts on the intricacies of the GOR in an earlier POB comment and here. Also check this EIA topic on GOR.

New Mexico Permian

The total rig count in Lea and Eddy counties in the week ending February 28 was 95 and is down 5 from July 2024 count of 100. It has held steady for 15 weeks since late November 2024 at 94 ± 1.

Lea county rigs have been slowly dropping since late December while Eddy’s have slowly increased.

Lea County’s oil production appears to have entered a plateau phase in May at 1,212 kb/d and produced slightly more in August while December production rose by 32 kb/d to 1,229 kb/d. Production has been essentially flat to slightly rising since May 2024 as the rig count fell but began to increase in October as the time shifted rig count rose. Revisions to earlier months may be over estimating the production rise in December.

Preliminary December data from New Mexico’s Oil Conservation Division (OCD) indicates Lea County’s oil production increased by 10 kb/d to 1,185 kb/d. A projection for December’s final production estimates it will be closer to 1,229 kb/d.

The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs operating during a given month as taken from the weekly rig chart. The rig graph has been shifted forward by 8 months. So the 64 Rigs/wk operating in August 2023 have been time shifted forward to April 2024 to show the possible correlation and time delay between rig count, completion and oil production.

Comparing the flattening oil production since May with the dropping time shifted rig count, indicates/implies the newer wells drilled since June had higher IPs to offset the decline associated with the fewer wells drilled by the declining rig count. The rising rig count since November may be able to slow the declining/flattening production in Lea County but the writing on the wall is saying that Lea County is close to peak production.

Note that rig counts are being used to project production as opposed to completions because very few extra DUCs are being completed at this time.

After much zigging and zagging, oil production in Lea county stabilized just below 1,100 kb/d in early 2023. Once production reached a new high in January 2023, production appeared to be on a plateau while the GOR started to increase rapidly to the right and entered the bubble point phase in July 2023.

Since July 2023 the Lea County GOR has continued to increase as production increased within a second semi-bounded GOR. This may indicate that the recent additional production is coming from a new bench/field since the GOR’s behaviour since August 2023 to March 2024 time frame appears once again to be in a semi bounded GOR phase accompanied with rising production.

The GOR moved out of the second semi-bounded GOR region in April and has continued to increase while production hit a new high in May 2024 and since appears to be in a plateau phase or slow decline.

This zigging and zagging GOR pattern within a semi-bounded GOR while oil production increases to some stable level and then moves out to a higher GOR to the right has shown up in a number of counties. See a few additional cases below.

Eddy County’s oil production first peaked in February 2024 at 805 kb/d. After dropping for three months, the number of rigs and associated wells increased and so did oil production. From May to December, production rose from 763 kb/d to 920 kb/d, an increase of 157 kb/d, while essentially paralleling the increasing rig count. Over that same time shifted rig period, 14 to 15 rigs were added to Eddy County as production rose. Was a new Tier 1 region/shelf discovered to attract such a large increase in the rig count?

In December the projected oil production increased by 2 kb/d to a new high of 920 kb/d. This small increase also appears to reflect the slowing increase in the rig count.

The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs operating during a given month as taken from the above weekly drilling chart. The rig graph has been shifted forward by 8 months to roughly coincide with the increase in the production graph starting in November 2023.

Clearly the production rise up to October 2024 is closely associated with the rise in the rig count and associated well completions delayed by roughly 8 months. The small December increase is the second clue that the production rise associated with increasing rigs is about to end. The flattening rig count starting in December implies that production in Eddy county is heading into a short term plateau phase before starting to decrease sometime in January or February.

The Eddy county GOR pattern is similar to Lea county except that Eddy broke out from the semi bounded range earlier and for a longer time and then added a second semi bounded GOR phase. For December New Mexico’s reported oil production decreased by 28 kb/d to 875 kb/d and stayed within the second semi-bounded region.

Note the big increase in the GOR from November to December. Interesting to see what January brings.

Texas Permian

The Midland county rig count has been rising since July and is up 9 to 27 at the end of February. The opposite is true for Martin county. On February 28, 27 rigs were operational, down 18 from 45 in July 2023.

Since the end of October drilling in the Midland and Martin counties has been very steady at 26 and 27 rigs, respectively, except for January 31 when Martin dropped to 25.

Texas County Oil Production

The Texas RRC made significant revisions to its production data in their September report and those revisions now continue to affect the December projections in this update. Some of the projections for this Texas update are almost reasonable. However in a few cases the projections are over estimated.

Midland October oil production chart for comparison with updated December chart below.

For many months in previous posts Midland county’s oil production had been declining. The revisions in the Texas RRC September update turned the decline into rising production that exceeds the previous production peak of 699 kb/d in July 2023 which I didn’t think was correct and mentioned in the previous US post. See next chart.

The orange and green graphs show the oil production for Midland County as reported by the Texas RRC for November and December. The red graph uses the November and December data to project production as it would look after being updated over many months.

December projected production dropped 14 kb/d to 652 kb/d. Preliminary Texas December RRC production dropped 28 kb/d to 590 kb/d.

Even though the rig count is dropping, I think the increase in the projected production after May is real based on the increasing production shown for October in the December RRC data. Comparing the current chart with the previous one, note that the projected July 2024 production has dropped by 33 kb/d, 668 kb/d to 635 kb/d.

While the post May production projection is rising, I think it is overdone and hopefully will correct itself in the next data release. Considering that oil production from July 2023 to May 2024 followed the rig count graph, it is not unreasonable to question whether magnitude of the production rise after May is believable. The initial RRC December data is showing lower production in December over November and this is reflected in the projection, however I think it is on the high side.

The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs operating during a given month as taken from the weekly drilling chart. The rig graph has been shifted forward by seven months. So the average 34.5 Rigs/wk operating in July 2023 have been moved forward to February 2024 to show the possible correlation and time delay between rig count, completions and oil production. If the seven month shift in the rig count is approximately correct in that oil production can be tied to the rig count, oil production in Midland county should increase for a month or two before resuming its decline. 

The production revisions do not affect the GOR. For December the GOR ratio increased to 4.21 while production dropped.

With Midland county into the bubble point phase, oil production and the GOR have stayed within a narrow range outside of the initial Semi-Bounded GOR region but December broke to a new high of 4.21.

The oil production and GOR shown in this chart are based on the RRC’s December production report. Note that while the last few months are subject to revisions, the July 2023 to May 2024 production data has been steady for a number of months.

Above is the Martin county oil production chart posted in the February US update. It was the second month that was hinting at a production peak for Martin county. Also it was the fourth month in which the GOR was out of the semi-bounded GOR region. The current December update has made larger than normal revisions to November’s production data and as a result the projected results shown in the next chart may be over optimistic.

This November chart has been posted to compare with the December oil production chart below.

The orange and green graphs show the production for Martin County as reported by the Texas RRC for November and December. The red graph is a projection for oil production as it would look after being updated over many months.

The red graph is a production forecast which the Texas RRC could be reporting for Martin county about one year from now as the Texas RRC reports additional updated production information. This projection is based on a methodology that uses preliminary November and December production data. The green graph shows oil production reported by the Texas RRC for December and is slightly higher than November. Note how the production projection plateau in the November chart has gone to being an increasing production phase in the December chart.

Martin county’s projected December oil production increased by 9 kb/d to 732 kb/d.

In comparing the December and November month over month increments between the green and orange graphs, note the increments in the last four months in the December chart are almost double those in the November chart which results in the rising Martin production. The effect of reducing the increments by 1/2 is shown in the chart’s purple markers. We will have to wait for the January update to get a better idea of what production is really doing is Martin county.

It should be noted that the underlying assumption in this forecasting methodology is that the intra yearly monthly increments are typically monotonic and the inter yearly month increments are reasonably consistent. For this month, the inter yearly month increments over the last 4 months doubled and the projection is overly optimistic.

The blue chart shifts the rig count ahead by 6 months. Note the three flat spots in the November, December and January rig count and similar flat spots in production a few months later.

My best guess for Martin County production is that it is on a plateau.

Martin county’s oil production after November 2022 increased and at the same time drifted to slightly higher GORs within the semi bounded range. However the June 2024 GOR saw its first move out of the semi bounded region. The preliminary Texas RRC’s December production for Martin county shows a continuing increase in the GOR to a new high with dropping oil production.

Martin county has the lowest semi-bounded GOR boundary of the four counties at a GOR of close to 2.60 but for December it has jumped to 2.96 and is clearly out of the semi-bounded region. Martin County has now entered the bubble point phase that should result in a dropping oil production trend.

This chart shows the total oil production from the four largest Permian counties. Assuming that current December Permian production is close to 6,400 kb/d, these four counties account for close to 55% of the total.

The November and December initial production data is shown in the orange and green graphs respectively. The red graph uses the October and November data to project an estimate for the final December production. The growth is related to growth in Martin and Eddy counties.

The projection indicates that December production increased by 29 kb/d to 3,532 kb/d. The combined preliminary December production data is higher than November’s, up by 29 kb/d to 3,264 kb/d and implies the December increase is real.

However I believe the December increase is too optimistic due to larger than typical revisions to the updated previous month’s production in the latest December report.

Findings

– Lea county may have entered a plateau phase in May 2024. While oil production is not following the rig count graph directly, the dropping rig count is resulting in Lea production currently being on a plateau or possible on a shallow rise. The rise in December production appears to track the rising rig count that started in October.

– Eddy County’s oil production initially peaked in February 2024. It started a new increasing phase in June as it followed the uptrend in the rig count and exceeded its previous February peak. December production increased but slowed and it is occurring at the same time as the rig count is peaking.

– Midland county peaked in July 2023 and has roughly followed the declining rig count graph since then. It appears to have started a new increasing phase in June 2024 which peaked in October and is now in decline again. Is the rig count graph making its impact felt.

– Martin County may have peaked in May 2024 and may have entered a slow declining phase. The December production revisions may be creating an over optimistic production profile for the last four months.

– Two of the four largest Permian oil producing counties are now in their plateau phase, Lea and Martin. One is in decline, Midland and another is close to its peak, Eddy, assuming that drilling does not start to increase significantly for all four. Need a few more months of data to clarify Eddy’s growth/decline potential.

Texas District 8

The large revisions to the previous months in the December report has changed District 8 from a District in a plateau phase to one with increasing production. This optimistic increase hopefully will be corrected in the next report.

Texas District 8 contains both the Midland and Martin counties. While these two counties are the two largest oil producers, there are many other counties with smaller production, such as Reeves #3, Loving #4, Upton #5 and Howard #6.

While the revisions in the production chart affect the projection, it does not affect the GOR.

Plotting an oil production vs GOR graph for a district may be a bit of a stretch. Regardless here it is and it seems to indicate many District 8 counties may well be into the bubble point phase. The GOR continue to rise and reached another high of 4.43. This is another indicator that implies District 8 has passed peak production.

Oil Production and GOR Charts for the Next Bigger Oil Producing Counties in Texas

Below are the next five top oil producing counties in Texas.

The large revisions to the December oil production data results in the forecasting model being too optimistic. The GOR chart paints a different picture. It indicates that Reeves County entered the bubble point chase in December and production should start to fall.

Reagan county has oil wells with a very high a GOR. The above charts indicate that oil production is falling along with the GOR, an indication that Reagan county could be gassing out.

Upton county production has followed the rig count graph since January 2024 and may have peaked in November. December saw a large drop in production and the GOR may be on the verge of clearly moving out to the Semi-Bounded GOR region.

The rig graph in the oil production chart has been shifted forward by six months.

Howard county peaked in July 2023 at 419 kb/d. Note the rapid movement of the GOR to higher ratios once it broke out of the Semi-Bounded GOR range. While the GOR has risen to new highs, production has kept on falling. The production rise shown for December in the projection graph is overdone.

Drilling Productivity Report

The Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the principal tight oil regions. The new DPR report in the STEO provides production up to December 2024. The report also projects output to December 2026. The DUC charts and Drilled Wells charts are also updated to December 2025.

The oil production for the 5 DPR regions tracked by the EIA’s STEO is shown above up to January 2025. Also the February 2025 STEO projects production out to December 2026, red markers.  Note DPR production includes both LTO oil and oil from conventional wells. DPR oil production for the Anadarko and Niobrara regions is no longer available.

The January oil output in the five DPR regions decreased by 94 kb/d to 8,958 kb/d. Production is expected to rise by 59 kb/d in February to 9,017 kb/d. Note the sharp production rise of 320 kb/d from April to June. After that, production growth slows.

From December 2024 to December 2026, production is expected to grow by 247 kb/d, down from 343 kb/d in the previous report. December 2026 production has been revised down from 9,459 kb/d to 9,299 kb/d, a downward revision of 160 kb/d. Note how production falls off in the later half of 2026.

The EIA’s February DPR report shows Permian output in January decreased by 76 kb/d to 6,415 kb/d. From February 2025 to December 2026 output is expected to rise by 364 kb/d to 6,841 kb/d. Also note how production rises by 303 kb/d from April to June 2025 and then the production growth rate slows.

There has been a significant revision to the production forecast for December 2026. In the previous post, the STEO forecast production in December 2026 would be 6,997 kb/d. The updated forecast for December 2026 is 6,841 kb/d which is a downward revision of 156 kb/d.

Production from new wells and legacy decline, right scale, have been added to this chart to show the difference between new production and legacy decline. Notice the steady decline in new well production over the past eight months.

Output in the Eagle Ford basin had been increasing since January 2024 and appears to have peaked in August 2024. January production was flat at 1,097 kb/d. February 2025 production is forecast to decrease by 4 kb/d to 1,093 kb/d.

Production over the next two years is expected to peak in March 2026. Output in December 2026 expected to be 1,124 kb/d, 31 kb/d higher than February 2025.

The DPR/STEO reported that Bakken output in January dropped by 16 kb/d to 1,245 kb/d. The STEO projection, red markers, shows output to be essentially in decline after July 2025, dropping to 1,186 kb/d in December 2026.

This chart plots the combined production from the three main LTO regions. For January output dropped by 92 kb/d to 8,758 kb/d. After being on an approximate plateau for the first half of 2026 at close to 9,230 kb/d, production in December 2026 rolls over and drops to 9,150 kb/d, a downward revision of 132 kb/d from the previous report.

DUCs and Drilled Wells

The number of DUCs available for completion in the Permian and the three major DPR regions has fallen every month since July 2020. January DUCs rose by 2 to 1,511. In the Permian, the DUC count increased by 12 to 900. The August low was 855 DUCs.

In the three primary regions, 623 wells were completed and 626 were drilled.

In the Permian, the monthly completion and drilling rates have been both stabilizing in the 440 to 455 range over the last 5 months.

In January 2024, 443 wells were completed while 456 new wells were drilled. This is the fifth month in a row in which the number of wells drilled exceeded the number of completed wells.