Tag: Texas Railroad Commission

ESTIMATING TEXAS PRODUCTION-BRIDGING THE GAP

D Coyne 148 Comments

A Guest Post by Guy Minton

chart/

(Details for the chart above are explained in the post.)

The Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) had the oil and gas production reported online in early 2005, and became fully online for producers and the public on Feb 14, 2005. At the time it was set up, it required the producers to input their production in the production file for existing approved leases, and in the pending lease data file for those leases which have not yet received an approved lease number by the RRC. Each month, the RRC only reports the oil and condensate that is currently updated that month which is in the production file.

Historically, the production did not seem to be completely reported. The lag time to near full reporting of RRC production went from almost 18 months, down to about nine months within the past two years. Even at nine months it leaves interested parties trying to find some way to estimate what current Texas oil production is. Read More

Texas Update- November 2017

D Coyne 152 Comments

Dean Fantazzini has provided his latest estimates of Texas oil and natural gas output.

His analysis is based on RRC data only. Each RRC data set from Jan 2014 to Sept 2017 for crude and from April 2014 to Sept 2017 for condensate and natural gas are used in the “all data” estimate, the most recent 49 months of data are collected for each individual data set. After March 2016 there was a shift in the data for crude and condensate so for the C+C estimate, I include an estimate which uses all data from April 2016 to the most recent data point (“Corrected 18 month vintage”). Dean prefers to present an “all vintage data” estimate and an estimate using only the most recent 3 months “correction factors”. For Sept 2017 the all vintage data estimate is 3174 kb/d, the last 3 month vintage estimate is 2957 kb/d, and the last 18 month vintage estimate is 3039 kb/d with falls of 68, 96, and 80 kb/d respectively from the previous month.

chart/

Read More

Texas Update- June 2017

D Coyne 149 Comments

chart/

Dean Fantazzini has provided me with updates to Texas Oil and Natural Gas estimates, the data shifted about a year ago so I use the most recent 13 months of Texas RRC data along with the “all vintage” data estimate which uses all data from Jan 2014 to April 2017 for oil and April 2014 to April 2017 for condensate. The most recent EIA estimate is shown for comparison. In April 2017 the EIA estimate is 3345 kb/d, the 13 month corrected estimate is 3443 kb/d, and the all vintage estimate is 3572 kb/d. Read More